MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-05-18 03:40:01

Jump to Page 1 2 3

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Houston at Miami – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Houston								Miami
			Lance McCullers							Jose Urena
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-150							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.316	0.278	26.6%	9.1%	31.9%	57.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.327	0.328	32.2%	6.8%	10.8%	42.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.307	0.292	22.8%	11.9%	27.7%	59.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.328	0.324	31.9%	8.2%	19.4%	52.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Lance McCullers
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$10,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	14	3.68	3.22	30.1%	12.8%	57.3%	25.4%	19.9%
	2017	8	2.71	2.98	29.1%	6.6%	60.3%	23.4%	22.6%

As an appetizer, we have a small four game early slate on the schedule. Surprisingly enough, this short slate features some great pitching options. McCullers is having a breakout year for the Astros, posting a 2.71 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29% and a ground ball rate of 60%. He basically does everything well that we are looking for in a pitcher. For whatever reason, his price on FanDuel has not adjusted to his level of production. He draws a decent matchup against the Marlins in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and he has a red-hot offense behind him.

Quick Breakdown: If you aren’t playing Kershaw, you should be playing McCullers. He is an elite play in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jose Urena
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	12	4.66	6.13	15.6%	7.8%	47.7%	32.5%	21.4%
	2017	2	4.83	1.98	12.7%	6.4%	43.5%	30.7%	18.2%

Urena has a 1.98 ERA on the season, but it is aided by a .259 BABIP and a 94% left on-base percentage. Those are not sustainable and that is evident in his SIERA. He has a low strikeout rate and he is facing a red-hot Astros’ offense that the Marlins’ pitching staff hasn’t been able to slow down in this series.

Quick Breakdown: Urena should be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros continue to put up runs in bunches, even in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. They have great numbers against right-handed pitching and they strikeout at a low rate, which is a lethal combination. Jose Urena hasn’t been particularly effective against left or right-handed hitters, allowing a .324+ xwOBA and a 32%+ hard contact rate. George Springer, Josh Reddick, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa are all elite plays at their respective positions and whoever ends up catching (Evan Gattis or Brian McCann) will also be viable in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.342	0.334	0.175	31.3%	11.1%	23.8%	50.0%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
2	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.372	0.357	0.178	31.1%	9.0%	11.2%	37.9%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.384	0.369	0.180	31.8%	7.5%	10.0%	43.6%	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.366	0.372	0.195	38.0%	10.1%	21.2%	47.8%	SS	$4,300	SS	$4,800	N/A	N/A
5	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.338	0.295	0.135	27.9%	3.6%	11.5%	46.5%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
6	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.333	0.353	0.169	37.3%	11.6%	18.8%	35.1%	C	$2,900	C	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Alex Bregman	RIGHT	0.331	0.309	0.180	31.4%	7.5%	21.6%	35.6%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Norichika Aoki	LEFT	0.339		0.122	20.5%	7.2%	9.5%	58.1%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
9	Lance McCullers	RIGHT	0.000	0.007	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	P	$9,000	P	$10,800	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – George Springer, Josh Reddick, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Brian McCann or Evan Gattis

Secondary Plays – Yuli Gurriel

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Miami

The Marlins draw the second worst matchup in the slate. They are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they are facing Lance McCullers, who is quickly establishing himself as one of the best pitchers in the American League. McCullers has an elite strikeout rate and an elite ground ball rate, which makes the Marlins’ offense an easy fade in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.290	0.244	0.072	18.9%	5.7%	16.0%	57.1%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
2	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.338	0.310	0.114	30.7%	4.7%	16.5%	50.2%	C	$2,700	C	$3,200	N/A	N/A
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.378	0.390	0.203	40.7%	12.0%	19.6%	54.5%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.335	0.338	0.184	37.5%	7.7%	19.9%	46.5%	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
5	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.327	0.335	0.227	37.8%	9.6%	28.7%	39.1%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
6	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.347	0.393	0.221	38.0%	12.8%	16.3%	45.5%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
7	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.349	0.350	0.151	29.4%	8.5%	20.0%	36.8%	3B	$2,400	3B	$2,700	N/A	N/A
8	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.127		0.200	33.3%	0.0%	16.7%	30.8%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,500	N/A	N/A
9	Jose Urena	RIGHT	0.136	0.126	0.000	0.0%	4.5%	36.4%	66.7%	P	$6,500	P	$6,600	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay at Cleveland – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Cleveland
			Alex Cobb							Josh Tomlin
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-143							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.415	0.372	31.7%	9.2%	13.0%	44.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.283	0.310	36.8%	2.3%	15.6%	48.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.298	0.297	34.0%	4.4%	16.7%	53.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.362	0.347	32.2%	3.0%	16.9%	41.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Alex Cobb
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	5	4.50	8.59	15.4%	6.7%	52.5%	29.6%	17.3%
	2017	8	4.47	3.65	15.0%	6.3%	48.4%	34.8%	13.0%

Cobb has pitched well in back-to-back starts, but I’m still not buying his long-term stock until he can improve on his 15% strikeout rate. His SIERA is significantly higher than his ERA and he has allowed a 35% hard contact rate this season. The Indians are always a tough opponent for pitchers because they take a lot of pitches and strikeout at a low rate. As a sizable underdog on the road, Cobb is an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Continue to avoid Cobb unless we see a significant boost in his strikeout rate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Josh Tomlin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	29	4.24	4.40	16.3%	2.8%	43.8%	33.9%	16.4%
	2017	7	3.68	5.87	16.8%	2.5%	50.0%	35.7%	10.9%

Tomlin is not a pitcher that I roster in DFS. He has an average ground ball rate and he allows a lot of hard contact to both left and right-handed hitters. Add in the fact that he has a below-average strikeout rate and he carries very little fantasy appeal. The Rays are an offense that strikes out at a high rate, but they also have a lot of power against right-handed pitching (just ask Danny Salazar).

Quick Breakdown: Tomlin is not the type of pitcher that we are looking to target in DFS.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

When the Rays face a right-handed pitcher, we generally look to load up on their left-handed power bats (Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller, and Logan Morrison), but Josh Tomlin has some serious reverse-splits. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .347 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. He still allows a high hard contact rate to lefties, but the reverse-splits are real. Evan Longoria is in a great spot here, as he boasts a .357 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.345	0.313	0.257	32.1%	6.6%	22.2%	35.0%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.331	0.321	0.229	36.3%	10.1%	25.1%	45.7%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.355	0.357	0.250	37.0%	6.0%	20.7%	33.2%	3B	$2,900	3B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.329	0.358	0.217	37.5%	9.6%	22.6%	42.4%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
5	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.329	0.302	0.176	30.3%	8.3%	31.3%	41.2%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
6	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.308	0.316	0.175	35.8%	10.9%	28.9%	36.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.309	0.307	0.212	44.6%	3.7%	31.3%	38.2%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,300	N/A	N/A
8	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.311	0.291	0.140	30.1%	9.7%	18.0%	45.1%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
9	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.247	0.269	0.132	31.2%	6.7%	32.2%	33.6%	C	$2,700	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller, Logan Morrison, Steve Souza, Colby Rasmus

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland

The Indians are sizable favorites today, which says a lot given the fact that they are pitching Josh Tomlin. Obviously, Vegas has little faith in Alex Cobb, despite posting two solid starts in a row. Cobb has fared well against right-handed hitters since coming back from Tommy John surgery, but has allowed a .372 xwOBA with a 32% hard contact rate to lefties. Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, and Lonnie Chisenhall all bat from the left side and all have good numbers against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.335	0.343	0.182	38.3%	9.3%	20.1%	37.6%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
2	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.352	0.351	0.169	27.7%	9.3%	12.3%	47.3%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,600	N/A	N/A
3	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.332	0.349	0.155	40.7%	7.1%	15.2%	46.5%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
4	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.381	0.405	0.270	38.1%	15.4%	16.2%	36.4%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
5	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.365	0.382	0.255	37.8%	11.1%	21.0%	37.6%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
6	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.358	0.329	0.162	25.7%	8.0%	9.9%	38.8%	3B	$3,400	2B/3B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.333	0.309	0.166	28.1%	5.1%	16.5%	34.4%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.208	0.265	0.137	29.9%	4.4%	24.5%	39.7%	C	$2,800	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.310	0.313	0.111	26.3%	15.2%	27.3%	55.6%	OF	$2,100	3B/SS	$2,700	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – GREEN

NY Mets at Arizona – 3:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Mets								Arizona
			Matt Harvey							Patrick Corbin
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			ARI-122							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.352	0.346	33.0%	8.4%	18.1%	32.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.306	0.308	35.9%	10.1%	28.4%	56.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.333	0.310	30.3%	6.5%	17.3%	53.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.359	0.352	37.2%	8.5%	15.6%	51.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Harvey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	17	4.31	4.86	18.9%	6.2%	40.8%	30.3%	24.3%
	2017	7	5.10	5.63	14.9%	10.3%	46.8%	34.9%	25.6%

Harvey is a shell of his former self, which is crazy when you realize that he is only 28 years old. He just doesn’t seem to have that killer mentality anymore and something is off with his mechanics. In seven starts, he has a 5.10 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. To make matters worse, he has to face the Diamondbacks on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The roof is going to be open in Chase Field today and it looks like it will be over 80 degrees at first pitch. The ball should carry well in Arizona, which isn’t great news for either pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: Steer clear of Harvey in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Patrick Corbin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	24	4.38	5.15	18.7%	9.4%	53.8%	38.5%	15.2%
	2017	8	4.23	4.17	17.9%	7.0%	48.6%	32.0%	14.7%

Corbin hasn’t shown that strikeout upside that we’ve seen from him in the past. In his eight starts this season, he has a 4.23 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. The Mets aren’t great against left-handed pitching, but the middle of their lineup features some solid right-handed hitters. When you add in the fact that the roof is going to be open and the warm temperature, Corbin becomes an easy fade.

Quick Breakdown: There is more risk than potential reward for Corbin today.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets are a sneaky offense to target in tournaments. I expect them to get overlooked by most, as they come into this game as underdogs on the road. Both offenses should have some success in these conditions and we have to like the Mets’ matchup against Patrick Corbin. In the last two seasons, Corbin has allowed a .352 xwOBA with a 37% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Wilmer Flores, Neil Walker, Jose Reyes, and Rene Rivera are all viable targets here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.197	0.226	0.067	27.5%	8.8%	30.9%	42.5%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
2	T.J. Rivera	RIGHT	0.201	0.228	0.022	32.3%	4.2%	31.3%	38.7%	3B	$2,700	1B/3B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
3	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.279	0.300	0.173	34.4%	5.2%	21.9%	34.0%	OF	$3,700	1B/OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
4	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.458	0.390	0.376	29.5%	6.4%	9.6%	23.8%	3B	$2,700	1B/3B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
5	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.392	0.354	0.244	37.7%	9.4%	14.1%	32.7%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
6	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.418	0.382	0.310	35.5%	14.5%	10.8%	34.4%	3B	$2,900	3B/SS	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7	Rene Rivera	RIGHT	0.376	0.338	0.167	42.4%	12.7%	27.3%	36.4%	C	$2,700	C	$2,500	N/A	N/A
8	Juan Lagares	RIGHT	0.270	0.320	0.072	23.2%	5.5%	16.5%	42.6%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A
9	Matt Harvey	RIGHT	0.155	0.217	0.125	40.0%	0.0%	37.5%	50.0%	P	$7,700	P	$6,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Neil Walker, Rene Rivera

Secondary Plays – Wilmer Flores, Jose Reyes

Stackability – YELLOW

Arizona

The Diamondbacks have one of the highest implied run totals in the early slate and rightly so. They are playing at home in great hitting conditions and they get to face Matt Harvey, who has a 10% walk rate and a 35% hard contact rate. Harvey has been tough on right-handed hitters throughout his career, but I’m willing to overlook that given his recent form. A Diamondbacks’ stack is firmly in play here, even in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Gregor Blanco	LEFT	0.267	0.276	0.079	22.8%	10.3%	19.2%	48.3%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
2	David Peralta	LEFT	0.336	0.312	0.170	36.8%	5.6%	20.4%	53.5%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.380	0.379	0.205	38.1%	14.4%	21.0%	46.7%	1B	$4,700	1B	$5,300	N/A	N/A
4	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.379	0.365	0.275	40.4%	10.4%	25.2%	43.1%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
5	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.321	0.323	0.223	39.2%	4.8%	24.1%	47.1%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
6	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.352	0.322	0.172	32.6%	6.7%	20.7%	48.6%	2B	$2,700	2B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
7	Nick Ahmed	RIGHT	0.236	0.270	0.083	28.6%	5.1%	20.2%	46.5%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	Jeff Mathis	RIGHT	0.192	0.202	0.067	23.4%	1.4%	29.7%	39.1%	C	$2,500	C	$2,200	N/A	N/A
9	Patrick Corbin	LEFT	0.265	0.200	0.064	11.8%	3.9%	29.4%	63.3%	P	$7,500	P	$6,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Gregor Blanco, David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – Yasmany Tomas, Brandon Drury

Stackability – GREEN

LA Dodgers at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
LA Dodgers								San Francisco
			Clayton Kershaw							Johnny Cueto
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAD-160							6.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.196	0.213	25.6%	1.6%	33.7%	50.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.295	0.314	31.8%	5.6%	22.9%	47.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.230	0.240	30.2%	2.8%	29.0%	49.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.270	0.282	26.2%	5.4%	21.5%	48.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Clayton Kershaw
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$12,500	Salary:		$14,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	21	2.41	1.69	31.6%	2.0%	49.4%	28.4%	20.3%
	2017	8	2.96	2.43	26.5%	3.7%	49.7%	30.7%	23.3%

Kershaw has been dominant this season, but he’s shown some signs of being human, allowing at least two earned runs in three of his last five starts. I’m not concerned in the slightest though, and I fully expect him to get back on track against the Giants in a great pitcher’s park. Kershaw has an impeccable record against San Francisco, holding their current roster to a .214 wOBA with a 28% strikeout rate. He is the top pitching option in the slate and should be treated as such.

Quick Breakdown: Kershaw is an elite play in all formats. For me, it basically comes down to Kershaw or McCullers in this slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Johnny Cueto
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$11,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	32	3.59	2.79	22.5%	5.1%	50.2%	27.2%	19.4%
	2017	8	4.02	4.15	21.1%	6.9%	40.1%	35.9%	14.7%

Cueto has been fine this season, but he hasn’t been elite. His velocity hasn’t dropped and he’s actually generating a higher swinging strike rate this season, so the slight dip in production could be due to a small sample size. It could also have something to do with the fact that he’s already faced the Dodgers twice this season. Los Angeles has one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching. With Clayton Kershaw pitching opposite him, Cueto is a deep tournament flier at best in this slate.

Quick Breakdown: If you want to fade Kershaw and play Cueto for leverage, I don’t mind the thought process, but I’ll be looking elsewhere.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers are sizable favorites here, but their matchup against Johnny Cueto is less than ideal. They are also playing in AT&T Park, which is one of the best pitcher’s parks in all of baseball. Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Yasmani Grandal, and Cody Bellinger all hit right-handed pitching well, but I see them as secondary plays at their respective positions. There are better matchups to target in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joc Pederson	LEFT	0.376	0.358	0.256	40.2%	12.9%	26.2%	39.7%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
2	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.402	0.409	0.222	41.1%	9.2%	16.9%	44.7%	SS	$3,500	SS	$3,600	N/A	N/A
3	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.390	0.376	0.233	36.4%	6.0%	17.0%	33.5%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
4	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.362	0.354	0.256	39.7%	11.9%	26.0%	44.0%	C	$3,000	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
5	Cody Bellinger	LEFT	0.466	0.361	0.438	40.0%	11.1%	24.1%	33.3%	1B	$3,600	1B/OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
6	Chase Utley	LEFT	0.326	0.329	0.148	38.8%	8.0%	18.5%	47.1%	2B	$2,300	2B	$2,700	N/A	N/A
7	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.332	0.323	0.161	32.6%	7.6%	20.4%	49.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
8	Chris Taylor	RIGHT	0.330	0.294	0.200	31.6%	12.1%	25.3%	58.2%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
9	Clayton Kershaw	LEFT	0.229	0.233	0.024	10.0%	2.1%	12.8%	74.3%	P	$12,500	P	$14,400	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Yasmani Grandal, Cody Bellinger

Stackability – ORANGE

San Francisco

Clayton Kershaw hasn’t been quite as sharp as usual, but he still owns a 2.96 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a walk rate of 4%. He is still the best pitcher in baseball and I will still be avoiding hitters against him on sites where they are priced appropriately. FanDuel seems to be doing a social experiment by listing every Giants’ hitter at the bare minimum of $1,500. I may end up with Buster Posey in the early slate, just because the cap space allows you to do so much with the rest of your lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.269	0.290	0.066	23.4%	7.5%	14.4%	50.0%	2B	$1,500	2B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
2	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.298	0.282	0.155	28.0%	5.0%	11.4%	48.2%	3B	$1,500	3B/SS	$4,200	N/A	N/A
3	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.396	0.404	0.190	36.7%	14.4%	10.6%	42.4%	C	$1,500	1B/C	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.320	0.309	0.121	37.2%	7.1%	19.2%	43.8%	SS	$1,500	SS	$2,800	N/A	N/A
5	Christian Arroyo	RIGHT	0.333	0.335	0.097	17.4%	3.1%	25.0%	60.9%	3B	$1,500	3B/SS	$3,200	N/A	N/A
6	Nick Hundley	RIGHT	0.366	0.323	0.211	43.2%	6.8%	21.8%	41.1%	C	$1,500	C	$2,500	N/A	N/A
7	Justin Ruggiano	RIGHT	0.470	0.381	0.318	40.0%	12.0%	28.0%	26.7%	OF	$1,500	OF	$2,100	N/A	N/A
8	Gorkys Hernandez	RIGHT	0.284	0.300	0.118	35.5%	9.5%	16.7%	35.6%	OF	$1,500	OF	$2,600	N/A	N/A
9	Johnny Cueto	RIGHT	0.119	0.116	0.000	7.4%	0.0%	34.1%	75.0%	P	$9,600	P	$11,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Buster Posey (FD)

Stackability – RED

Washington at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Washington								Pittsburgh
			Jacob Turner							Gerrit Cole
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-130							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.280	0.405	41.8%	12.5%	17.5%	42.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.350	0.315	37.5%	6.6%	23.4%	41.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.450	0.382	35.8%	9.2%	15.6%	45.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.284	0.297	25.3%	6.5%	18.0%	51.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jacob Turner
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		22 of 22	Salary Rank:		25 of 22	Salary Rank:		18 of 22
	2016	2	5.13	6.57	14.8%	13.1%	51.2%	39.5%	8.1%
	2017	1	4.01	3.31	19.4%	6.0%	32.7%	36.0%	12.0%

Turner has not fared well in the majors. He owns a career 4.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14.9%. He comes into tonight’s game as a small underdog on the road against the Pirates. Even though this is a good pitcher’s park and even though he is facing a Pirates’ offense that struggles against right-handed pitching, Turner has little to no fantasy appeal tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Turner in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Gerrit Cole
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$16,800
	Salary Rank:		4 of 22	Salary Rank:		10 of 22	Salary Rank:		7 of 22
	2016	21	4.24	3.88	19.4%	7.1%	45.6%	30.1%	21.3%
	2017	8	3.43	3.06	23.5%	5.0%	50.4%	32.9%	18.9%

Cole is having a nice season thus far, posting a 3.43 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. His command is improved and he is generating a higher ground ball rate. The Nationals aren’t an offense that we usually like to pick on, but Cole gets to face them at home in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. He will also have the platoon advantage against this right-handed heavy lineup. He’s not my favorite pitcher in the slate, but Cole is viable in all formats tonight, especially on DraftKings where he is the tenth most expensive pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: The matchup isn’t ideal, but Cole is pitching at home and is cheap across the industry. He is a viable SP2 in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals draw a difficult matchup against Gerrit Cole, who is an above-average pitcher with an electric arm and good command. All of the right-handed hitters in this lineup are easy fades, as Cole has held righties to a .297 xwOBA and a 25% hard contact rate. Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper are intriguing one-off target, as Cole has allowed a 37% hard contact rate to lefties in the last two seasons. We shouldn’t get carried away with our exposure to Murphy and Harper, but we can sprinkle them into our tournament lineups.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.387	0.340	0.249	33.3%	4.7%	19.7%	42.7%	SS	$3,900	SS	$5,000	IF/OF	$9,900
2	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.312	0.320	0.147	32.5%	11.3%	24.6%	42.1%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,000
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.387	0.398	0.244	35.7%	19.0%	15.7%	39.1%	OF	$5,000	OF	$5,700	RF	$11,100
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.326	0.335	0.195	36.3%	5.5%	23.0%	45.3%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,800	1B	$9,200
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.413	0.399	0.249	38.7%	7.0%	9.4%	35.3%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,900	2B	$9,600
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.338	0.344	0.180	34.8%	8.9%	18.5%	37.9%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,400
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.313	0.323	0.171	32.7%	7.1%	17.9%	37.3%	C	$2,700	C	$3,400	C	$6,800
8	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.270	0.265	0.134	31.9%	5.5%	31.8%	43.9%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,600
9	Joe Ross	RIGHT	0.186	0.170	0.030	15.8%	2.9%	41.2%	73.7%	P	$6,000	P	$6,900	P	$13,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are an offense that we rarely target in DFS because they lack talent and they lack power against right-handed pitching. The good news is that they are facing Jacob Turner, who has allowed a career .317 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .371 wOBA to right-handed hitters. This isn’t an offense that is on my radar for stacking, but Adam Frazier and Andrew McCutchen both carry some appeal as one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.332	0.336	0.135	31.9%	7.5%	15.6%	41.8%	2B	$2,600	2B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,400
2	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.296	0.272	0.098	26.7%	3.6%	14.6%	44.0%	3B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.313	0.330	0.159	34.8%	9.3%	21.4%	36.8%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,600
4	John Jaso	LEFT	0.335	0.335	0.154	30.9%	10.4%	16.9%	48.4%	1B	$2,300	1B/OF	$3,100	1B	$6,000
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.321	0.321	0.134	32.5%	8.5%	27.8%	59.3%	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,200	3B	$6,400
6	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.352	0.352	0.168	32.3%	13.1%	16.7%	49.7%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,600
7	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.308	0.320	0.100	27.8%	12.6%	19.1%	53.5%	C	$2,800	C	$3,500	C	$6,800
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.285	0.295	0.092	25.3%	8.6%	14.5%	49.2%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,700
9	Gerrit Cole	RIGHT	0.158	0.146	0.000	8.7%	0.0%	43.9%	80.0%	P	$9,200	P	$8,600	P	$16,800

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 17th

Jump to Page 1 2 3

Stackability Rating System:

Houston at Miami – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – George Springer, Josh Reddick, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Brian McCann or Evan Gattis

Secondary Plays – Yuli Gurriel

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay at Cleveland – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Brad Miller, Logan Morrison, Steve Souza, Colby Rasmus

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – GREEN

NY Mets at Arizona – 3:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Neil Walker, Rene Rivera

Secondary Plays – Wilmer Flores, Jose Reyes

Stackability – YELLOW

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Gregor Blanco, David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – Yasmany Tomas, Brandon Drury

Stackability – GREEN

LA Dodgers at San Francisco – 3:45 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Yasmani Grandal, Cody Bellinger

Stackability – ORANGE

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Buster Posey (FD)

Stackability – RED

Washington at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – ORANGE

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author