NHL Grind Down: Friday, February 12th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres – 07:00 PM EST
| Montreal Canadiens | Buffalo Sabres | ||||||||
 |  | Robin Lehner | |||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 21-27-6 | |||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.67 | 2.64 | 17.80% | 83.90% | Team Stats | 2.30 | 2.70 | 21.10% | 81.20% |
It’s been an odd season for the Canadiens to say the least, but after ascending into a total free-fall for the better part of two months, they’ve now won three straight games and appear to be on the road to recovery. With their backs against the wall a bit now, they’ll set off on a very winnable three game road trip that opens tonight in Buffalo. The ‘Habs dropped a 4-2 decision to these Sabres last week, but throttled them 7-2 in their only previous visit to upstate New York and should benefit from the fresher legs as Buffalo was visiting Philadelphia last night. Behind the bench, Michel Therrien has recently split up his long-time top line of Max Pacioretty, Brendan Gallagher and Tomas Plekanec and the results have been promising. Plekanec scored a pair of goals and added an assists in Tuesday’s big win over Tampa Bay and has now tallied three goals and five assists in his last four games. He now leads Montreal forwards in scoring and has already dished out four assists in their two previous meetings against Buffalo this season. He’s slated to be joined by Brendan Gallagher and Alex Galchenyuk leaving Pacioretty to play alongside David Desharnais and Dale Weise on another. It’s been a disappointing season for Pacioretty, but still a guy who has topped 35 goals in each of the last two seasons and his 212 SOG is the third best mark in the NHL. On defense, it’s P.K. Subban who actually leads this team in scoring with 43 points in 55 games. He’s picked up points in seven straight games (13 out of 14), logs huge minutes both at even strength and on the #1 power-play unit, and is destined to find the back of the net with more frequency as his shooting percentage sits at an unsustainably low 3.4%. His partner-in-crime on the point of the power-play, Andrei Markov, can be found at a much cheaper price-point and has torched the Sabres for a goal and four assists in those two previous meetings.
The Sabres are a much more competitive team than they were a year ago, but they’re also still likely a couple years away from competing for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. They were sent packing with a 5-1 loss against the Flyers last night and have posted an ugly 6-12-2 record over their last 20 games. With that said, they did defeat this Montreal team 4-2 last week in their only previous meeting this season and it’s not like the Canadiens have been playing the best hockey down the stretch either. Ryan O’Reilly saw his four game point streak snapped last night but still leads the offensive charge for the Sabres with 17 goals and 28 assists in 55 games. He scored a goal and added an assist against Montreal last week and is the most consistent option on this Buffalo team. Phenom Jack Eichel has finally grown accustomed to life in the NHL and the 19 year-old has tallied seven goals and 15 assists over his last 23 games. Evander Kane joins him on the second line to form a dangerous duo with some definite GPP winning upside. On defense, Rasmus Ristolainen and Cody Franson are the really the only two options needing your attention. Ristolainen has cooled off a bit lately but is a former first round pick who routinely logging 25+ minutes of ice-time and is in the midst of a career best season (33 points). On the other hand, Franson is seeing plenty of run with the second power-play unit and has already dished out four assists in two prior meetings with the Canadiens this season
Montreal Canadiens
CF%: 52.8, CP60: 109.5, 5×5 Differential: 0
Elite Options: Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec, P.K. Subban
Secondary Options: Brendan Gallagher, Alex Galchenyuk, David Desharnais, Andrei Markov
Buffalo Sabres
CF%: 47.9, CP60: 103.4, 5×5 Differential: -28
Elite Options: Ryan O’Reilly, Jack Eichel
Secondary Options: Evander Kane, Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Ristolainen, Cody Franson
Los Angeles Kings at New York Rangers – 07:00 PM EST
| Los Angeles Kings | New York Rangers | ||||||||
 | Jhonas Enroth |  | Henrik Lundqvist | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 32-17-3 | 31-18-5 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.77 | 2.29 | 23.40% | 82.40% | Team Stats | 2.83 | 2.50 | 15.80% | 78.40% |
After hammering the Boston Bruins 9-2 on Tuesday, the Kings were outworked in a 5-2 defeat last night in Brooklyn and won’t have much time to recover before heading to Manhattan tonight to face the New York Rangers. They jumped out to a huge lead in the Pacific Division very early this season and it seems that they’ve just coasted at times over the last month as they’ve won back-to-back just one time since the Calendar flipped to 2016. Anze Kopitar leads the team with 47 points in 53 games and has racked up three goals and 14 assists in his last 13 games and leads Milan Lucic and Dustin Brown on the top forward line. Kopitar looks like the strongest play here but Brown and Lucic are both former 30-goal scorers and have been heating up lately. Jeff Carter has cooled off after a strong start to the season but he’s picked up points in two straight games and benefits from having the talented Tyler Toffoli on his wing both on the second forward line and #1 power-play unit. With the Rangers owning an ugly 78.4% penalty kill and still likely missing their top defender Ryan McDonagh, both Drew Doughty and Jake Muzzin become fine options on the blue-line. Both defenseman have already eclipsed the 30 point plateau on the season and share the duties on the point on L.A.‘s excellent power-play.
After a 14-2-2 start to the season, the Rangers fell apart a bit and coasted into the All-Star break on fumes. However, they’ve looked refreshed and, after an impressive 3-0 victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins on Wednesday night, have now picked up wins in four straight games. They’ll put their impressive 20-5-2 record at Madison Square Garden on the line tonight against a Los Angeles team that was in action last night against the cross-town New York Islanders. While key injuries to stars Ryan McDonagh and Rick Nash are obviously a big blow to this team, the Rangers have used their solid depth to persevere. Former first round pick J.T. Miller has thrived in Nash’s old role as the 22 year old has scored nine goals and added two assists in his last 11 games skating alongside Derick Brassard on the top line. Brassard not only leads the team with 40 points in 53 games but has been an absolute beats at Madison Square Garden all season; scoring 15 goals with 18 assists and a +20 in 26 home games. Alternatively, Derek Stepan centers a very dangerous second line with Chris Kreider and Mats Zuccarello on his wings. While the matchup is not ideal since the Kings are the #1 puck possession team in the league and one of these two lines will see a heavy dose of Anze Kopitar pestering defense, they both have plenty of GPP upside. With McDonagh watching from the press-box, Alain Vigneault will hand Keith Yandle as many minutes as he can handle on the blue-line. Yandle is one of the best breakout passers in the NHL and is a dangerous weapon on the point of the Rangers top power-play unit.
Los Angeles Kings
CF%: 56.2, CP60: 110.4, 5×5 Differential: 6
Elite Options: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty
Secondary Options: Milan Lucic, Tyler Toffoli, Dustin Brown, Jake Muzzin, Alec Martinez
New York Rangers
CF%: 48.2, CP60: 107, 5×5 Differential: 32
Elite Options: Derick Brassard, Mats Zuccarello, Keith Yandle
Secondary Options: J.T. Miller, Chris Kreider, Derek Stepan
Pittsburgh Penguins at Carolina Hurricanes – 07:00 PM EST
| Pittsburgh Penguins | Carolina Hurricanes | ||||||||
 | Marc-Andre Fleury |  | Cam Ward | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 27-19-7 | 24-21-9 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.60 | 2.55 | 19.80% | 83.60% | Team Stats | 2.41 | 2.63 | 16.20% | 81.30% |
The Penguins disappointed lots of fantasy owners on Wednesday as they were blanked by the New York Rangers to see their winning streak snapped at two. Despite the poor result, they outshot the Rangers 34-22 and have posted a solid 6-2-0 record over their last eight games. They throttled the Hurricanes 5-0 in their last meeting and Sidney Crosby has finally starting clicking at the pace we’ve grown accustomed to over the last few years. Crosby may have seen his 11 game point streak snapped on Wednesday but has racked up a ridiculous 18 goals and 16 assists in his last 22 games. He’s joined by Patric Hornqvist and Chris Kunitz on both the top forward line and #1 power-play unit and all three are fine options tonight despite the fact that Carolina has allowed an NHL low 26.4 shots against per game this season. Phil Kessel joins those three on the #1 power-play unit and has been widely overlooked since the Malkin injury, making him a very intriguing GPP option. On defense, Kris Letang has been on a heater of his own; posting eight goals and 18 assists in 18 games since Christmas. He scored a goal in his only other meeting against Carolina and is a top tier option on the blue-line tonight if you can afford him. With Trevor Daley looking like a game-time decision, former first round pick Derrick Pouliot could be locked into an extended role and would emerge as a very nice “punt” play on the blue-line.
The Hurricanes will open a three game home stand tonight looking to pick up their third win of the season over the Pittsburgh Penguins. They should be well rested after last playing in Montreal on Sunday but this is a team averaging just 2.41 goals per game this season and they have limited offensive weapons up-front. Justin Faulk has gone ice-cold lately (just one goal and four assists in his last 18 games) but yet still leads this team with 34 points in 54 games. With Pittsburgh owning a rock solid 83.6% penalty kill, it’s tough to get too excited about any of the Hurricanes. Up-front, Eric Staal still headlines the top line alongside Kris Versteeg and Elias Lindholm, but it’s been his brother Jordan leading the charge lately. Jordan Staal has really turned things on lately with five goals and 11 assists in his 14 games and has the extra motivation of taking on his former team.
Pittsburgh Penguins
CF%: 51.8, CP60: 109.9, 5×5 Differential: 4
Elite Options: Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist, Kris Letang
Secondary Options: Phil Kessel, Chris Kunitz, Carl Hagelin, Derrick Pouliot
Carolina Hurricanes
CF%: 52.8, CP60: 106.4, 5×5 Differential: -11
Elite Options: None
Secondary Options: Jordan Staal, Eric Staal, Kris Versteeg, Jeff Skinner, Justin Faulk
Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning – 07:30 PM EST
| Nashville Predators | Tampa Bay Lightning | ||||||||
 | Pekka Rinne |  | Ben Bishop | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 25-21-8 | 29-20-4 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.57 | 2.67 | 19.40% | 78.40% | Team Stats | 2.64 | 2.40 | 18.70% | 82.00% |
After hitting the All-Star break red-hot, things have turned around for Nashville as they’ve now dropped three of their four games since the hosting the All-Star Game. They’ll have their hands full once again tonight as they head to the Sunshine State for a quick two-game road trip that begins in Tampa Bay. With Tampa Bay owning an impressive 17-8-2 record and allowing just 2.22 goals against per game this season at Amalie Arena, Nashville is bordering on GPP-only territory for me tonight. With that said, both Shea Weber and Roman Josi actually lead Nashville in scoring and are always fine options on the blue-line if you can afford them. They’re both mortal locks for 25+ minutes of ice-time tonight and see plenty of run on the point of Nashville’s dangerous power-play. Offensively, it’s a bit more complicated as Peter Laviolette has spread his scoring threats across three different forward lines. Ryan Johansen has stayed hot with a goal and four assists in the last three games and has now posted 15 points in just 14 games with the Predators. He’s joined by sniper James Neal both on the top forward line and #1 power-play unit and Neal torched the Lightning for two goals and an assist in their only previous meeting this season. Youngster Filip Forsberg has posted monster stat lines in back-to-back games and is well worth a look as well.
John Cooper was not happy with his team after back-to-back losses, but Tampa still owns a 10-3-0 record over their last 13 games and figures to be a very tough out in the Eastern Conference once again this season. While Nashville has been a very pesky defensive club in recent years, that hasn’t really been the case this season as they’re allowing a middling 2.67 goals against per game this season and own a subpar 78.4% penalty kill. With that in mind, there’s plenty to like from the Lightning tonight. Steven Stamkos headlines the top line and has not only posted 27 points in 27 home games this season but also lit the lamp in his only other meeting with Nashville this season. He’ll be joined by Ondrej Palat and Vladislav Namestnikov on the top line who are both fine secondary options. Nikita Kucherov actually leads the team in scoring with 45 points and has also flourished on home ice; posting 12 goals and 16 assists in 27 games. After a somewhat slow start to the season, he’s turned up his offense quiet a bit down the stretch and has now posted ten goals and 17 assists over the last 22 games. Tyler Johnson joins him on the “second” line to form a very formidable duo. On defense, both Anton Stralman and Victor Hedman soak up nearly all of the available playing time on the man advantage and are the top options. Hedman tallied a goal and an assist against Montreal on Tuesday and dished out a pair of helpers against Nashville in their previous meeting, making him my preferred target of the two.
Nashville Predators
CF%: 53.6, CP60: 105.7, 5×5 Differential: -4
Elite Options: Shea Weber, Roman Josi
Secondary Options: Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg, James Neal, Mattias Ekholm
Tampa Bay Lightning
CF%: 52.4, CP60: 106.1, 5×5 Differential: 8
Elite Options: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman
Secondary Options: Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat, Vladislav Namestnikov, Valtteri Filppula, Anton Stralman
St. Louis Blues at Florida Panthers – 07:30 PM EST
| St. Louis Blues | Florida Panthers | ||||||||
 | Brian Elliott |  | Roberto Luongo | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 30-17-9 | 32-16-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.38 | 2.32 | 20.40% | 86.20% | Team Stats | 2.78 | 2.26 | 17.20% | 82.40% |
After a very uninspiring performance at home against the Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday, things could not have been fun for this St. Louis hockey club in practice this week as Ken Hitchcock was vocally upset. The Blues mustered up just 22 shots on goal in the shootout loss and have now dropped four of their last six games to firmly into third place in the Central Division. Turning things around won’t be easy tonight, however, as they head to Miami to battle a Florida team that has only allowed 2.26 goals against per game this season. The Blues have been searching for some consistent secondary scoring behind sniper Vladimir Tarasenko all season and just may get the jumpstart they need with Jaden Schwartz finally set to make his 2015-16 debut. Schwartz’s return likely re-establishes the “STL” line that posted some gaudy offensive numbers at times last season. While the matchup is certainly tough, that trio has enough firepower to bring home a GPP or two. Alternatively, Alexander Steen remains one of the games most underrated forwards. He’s tallied 15 goals and 28 assists in 56 games and will now skate alongside David Backes and Patrik Berglund at even strength while also seeing plenty of playing time alongside Tarasenko on the #1 power-play. Defensively, St. Louis is dealing with a key injury to Alex Pietrangelo. While his absence is certainly a big blow to the Blues as a whole, it also locks both Kevin Shattenkirk and Colton Parayko into as many power-play minutes as they can handle.
After two straight losses over the weekend, the Florida Panthers took out their frustrations on the Buffalo Sabres on Tuesday and cruised to an easy 7-4 victory. They’ve posted a ridiculous 19-4-2 record over their last 25 games and will look to keep things rolling as they open up an extended six game home stand tonight against the St. Louis Blues. Florida defeated the Blues 3-1 in St. Louis when these teams squared off earlier this season and own a 17-7-3 record this season on home ice, but their very balanced scoring attack makes the appealing fantasy options actually somewhat limited. Jaromir Jagr and Jonathan Huberdeau are tied atop the team lead with 38 points, but they’ll be without their usual center Aleksander Barkov once again tonight. In his place, big Nick Bjugstad will join them to center the top line and he took advantage of the opportunity with a pair of assists on Tuesday. While the top line will likely draw the most attention from the solid defense of Alexander Steen and David Backes, it’s actually been the trio if Jussi Jokinen, Vincent Trochek and Reilly Smith carrying the load offensively since the All-Star Break. Those three have combined for seven goals and 15 assists in five second half games and all three can be found at a very reasonable price-point across the industry. On defense, both Aaron Ekblad and Brian Campbell share the duties as the point men on the power-play, but considering St. Louis’ rock solid 86.2% penalty kill, they’re secondary options for me this evening.
St. Louis Blues
CF%: 51.1, CP60: 105, 5×5 Differential: 7
Elite Options: Vladimir Tarasenko, Alexander Steen
Secondary Options: Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera, David Backes, Kevin Shattenkirk, Colton Parayko
Florida Panthers
CF%: 47.3, CP60: 97.5, 5×5 Differential: 20
Elite Options: Jaromir Jagr, Jussi Jokinen
Secondary Options: Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad, Reilly Smith, Aaron Ekblad