NHL Grind Down: Monday, March 6th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators
| Boston Bruins | Ottawa Senators | ||||||||
 | Tuukka Rask |  | Craig Anderson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 34-25-6 | 35-22-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.74 | 2.58 | 19.80% | 86.00% | Team Stats | 2.57 | 2.63 | 16.80% | 82.10% |
In what is a highly important game in the Atlantic Division, the streaking Boston Bruins will head to Ottawa looking to pull even with the Senators for second place. They’ve posted an 8-2-0 record over their last ten games and are clearly playing very well for new coach Bruce Cassidy. They remain one of the best puck possession teams in the NHL (55.2 CF%) and have two forward lines that Ottawa will need to worry about. The trio of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Backes have been pretty dominant lately. Bergeron and Marchand have combined for 12 goals and 21 assists in just 12 games since the All-Star break and there’s no real reason to expect them to slow down any time soon. Marchand is just one goal shy of posting his second straight 30+ goal season and he’s actually thrived on the road this season, posting 16 goals and 23 assists in 34 road games. Meanwhile, Bergeron has quietly racked up 235 shots on goal this season and his slow start to the season has kept his asking price in check on several sites. On the second line, veteran David Krejci is enjoying his time alongside the up-and-coming David Pastrnak (and Peter Cehlarik) and those two seem to be overlooked just a little bit which makes them an excellent GPP pairing. Torey Krug is easily the top option on the blue-line as he’s an excellent distributor and quarterbacks the number one power-play unit.
Ottawa has picked up two huge wins in a row entering tonight’s clash against the Bruins and have the chance to pull even with the Montreal Canadiens if they can take care of business in the three games they have in hand on their rival. They’ll have their hands full tonight as the Bruins are playing very well down the stretch and have posted an NHL best 2.08 xGA60 (5 on 5) since the All-Star break to go along with their terrific 86.0% penalty kill. With that said, Ottawa did skate to a 3-1 victory in the first meeting between these two teams and it’s tough to ignore anyone on a four game slate. Erik Karlsson is the top fantasy option here every time Ottawa takes the ice. He leads the team with 56 points in 63 games and leads the entire NHL with 170 blocked shots. The matchup is not ideal, but the fact that Brent Burns is also on this small slate makes Karlsson a tremendous GPP play. Up-front, Guy Boucher continues to endlessly shuffle his forward lines. Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone, Kyle Turris and Derick Brassard have been the most consistent contributors down the stretch and all four join forces on the top power-play unit (with Karlsson on the point).
Boston Bruins
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 55.24 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -9, 112.5 CP60
Elite Options
Patrice Bergeron ($7,200 FD, $7,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 69.06 CF60, 2.77 xGF60, 97.51 PDO
Brad Marchand ($7,900 FD, $7,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 69.73 CF60, 3.02 xGF60, 97.44 PDO
Torey Krug ($5,400 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 65.96 CF60, 2.51 xGF60, 96.87 PDO
Secondary Options
David Pastrnak ($6,800 FD, $6,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 70.18 CF60, 3.18 xGF60, 99.06 PDO
David Backes ($5,200 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.73 CF60, 2.65 xGF60, 97.88 PDO
David Krejci ($5,600 FD, $5,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.57 CF60, 2.63 xGF60, 96.42 PDO
Colin Miller ($3,600 FD, $3,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 69.57 CF60, 2.93 xGF60, 96.72 PDO
Expected Netminder
Tuukka Rask – My Ratings (out of 10): 7.5 Cash, 7.5 GPP
Ottawa Senators
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 48.23 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -11, 114.86 CP60
Elite Options
Erik Karlsson ($7,000 FD, $7,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.44 CF60, 2.53 xGF60, 99.92 PDO
Secondary Options
Mike Hoffman ($6,600 FD, $6,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.16 CF60, 2.32 xGF60, 102.97 PDO
Kyle Turris ($5,800 FD, $5,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.75 CF60, 2.31 xGF60, 99.8 PDO
Mark Stone ($6,100 FD, $5,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.12 CF60, 2.75 xGF60, 99.91 PDO
Derick Brassard ($5,300 FD, $4,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 63.18 CF60, 2.67 xGF60, 99.64 PDO
Dion Phaneuf ($4,600 FD, $4,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.23 CF60, 2.28 xGF60, 98.49 PDO
Expected Netminder
Craig Anderson – My Ratings (out of 10): 5 Cash, 6 GPP
Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals
| Dallas Stars | Washington Capitals | ||||||||
 | Kari Lehtonen |  | Braden Holtby | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 26-29-10 | 44-13-7 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.78 | 3.17 | 18.30% | 73.50% | Team Stats | 3.27 | 2.03 | 22.10% | 84.90% |
Dallas did manage to pick up a surprising 2-1 win in Florida on Saturday night but they’ve still posted an ugly 5-9-0 record since the All-Star break and have the toughest matchup in all of hockey awaiting them as they’ll invade the Verizon Center to battle the Washington Capitals. Washington not only leads the entire NHL with 95 points, but they’ve also posted a 27-5-1 home record this season and sport an NHL best 2.03 goals against per game this season. With that in mind, it’s tough to get too excited about anyone here in cash games, but it could also be a mistake to ignore them all together on a small four-game slate. With Patrick Eaves shipped away at the trade deadline, Lindy Ruff has finally put Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza and Jamie Benn together on the top line. Those three showed their upside by producing both of the Star’s goals against Florida and will certainly have the full attention of Barry Trotz and company. Tyler Seguin has picked up a pair of assists in each of the last two games and his 246 shots on goal is second in the entire NHL. On defense, John Klingberg has been the top fantasy option all season for the Stars. He scored the game-winning goal on Saturday and has now racked up three goals and four assists during his current five game point streak. Alternatively, Esa Lindell has actually grabbed the reigns as the point-man on the top power-play unit and is dirt-cheap on most sites. Washington’s top-tier penalty kill is certainly a buzz-kill, but he’s still a viable value play.
The Capitals enter tonight’s game having won each of their last three games and owning a ridiculous 11-2-1 record since the All-Star break. Their offense has cooled off a bit over the last couple of games, but tonight’s home matchup against a defensively inept Dallas team just doesn’t get much better. Dallas owns an NHL worst (and historically bad) 73.5% penalty kill, have surrendered 3.20 goals against per game this season and own an ugly 3.16 xGA60 and 11.24 SCA60 since the All-Star break. With T.J. Oshie finally back in the lineup, Barry Trotz is back to having two extremely dangerous forward lines to work with and they both figure to receive plenty of attention this evening. As usual, Alex Ovechkin is an elite option tonight given his power-play production (12 PP goals this season) and his linemates Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie can both also be targeted comfortably in all formats. Backstrom has been particularly dangerous on home-ice, where he owns 12 goals and 28 assists in 33 home games. Alternatively, Evgeny Kuznetsov centers Marcus Johansson and Justin Williams on the second forward line and headlines the second power-play unit. On defense, the newly acquired Kevin Shattenkirk has grabbed the job as the point-man on the top power-play and that makes him a tremendous option tonight. Meanwhile, John Carlson and Matt Niskanen both still see a healthy dose of time with the second unit.
Dallas Stars
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 49.71 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 6, 119.67 CP60
Elite Options
Tyler Seguin ($8,400 FD, $7,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.95 CF60, 2.61 xGF60, 99.55 PDO
Secondary Options
Jamie Benn ($8,500 FD, $7,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.12 CF60, 2.53 xGF60, 100.23 PDO
Jason Spezza ($6,000 FD, $5,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 62.19 CF60, 2.52 xGF60, 99.96 PDO
John Klingberg ($5,900 FD, $4,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.15 CF60, 2.75 xGF60, 102.17 PDO
Esa Lindell ($3,600 FD, $3,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.03 CF60, 2.55 xGF60, 101.6 PDO
Expected Netminder
Kari Lehtonen – My Ratings (out of 10): 3 Cash, 5 GPP
Washington Capitals
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 51.03 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 66, 109.77 CP60
Elite Options
Alex Ovechkin ($8,500 FD, $8,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.98 CF60, 2.62 xGF60, 103.81 PDO
Nicklas Backstrom ($6,800 FD, $7,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.41 CF60, 2.57 xGF60, 104.04 PDO
T.J. Oshie ($6,900 FD, $6,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.89 CF60, 2.89 xGF60, 106.08 PDO
Kevin Shattenkirk ($5,400 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 52.22 CF60, 2.44 xGF60, 99.23 PDO
Secondary Options
Evgeny Kuznetsov ($7,200 FD, $6,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.17 CF60, 2.58 xGF60, 104.76 PDO
Justin Williams ($5,200 FD, $5,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.48 CF60, 2.92 xGF60, 102.43 PDO
John Carlson ($5,600 FD, $5,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.73 CF60, 2.62 xGF60, 103.52 PDO
Matt Niskanen ($4,500 FD, $4,700 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.63 CF60, 2.6 xGF60, 103.46 PDO
Expected Netminder
Braden Holtby – My Ratings (out of 10): 8 Cash, 8 GPP
New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning
| New York Rangers | Tampa Bay Lightning | ||||||||
 | Henrik Lundqvist |  | Andrei Vasilevskiy | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 41-22-2 | 30-26-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.18 | 2.63 | 18.10% | 81.20% | Team Stats | 2.73 | 2.77 | 22.70% | 79.70% |
The Rangers are 41-22-2 on the season and have averaged 3.18 goals per game, and yet their extremely balanced scoring attack makes them a tough team to confidently target in DFS hockey. They look to have easily secured a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, but they’ve been treading water a bit lately; going just 4-4-1 over their last nine games. They now have nine players with 30+ points on the season and all three of their top forward lines are capable of exploding any given night. Somewhat surprisingly, it’s J.T. Miller that leads the team with 48 points and he’s set to skate alongside Kevin Hayes and Jimmy Vesey on the “third” line and those three combined for two goals and five assists in their only previous meeting against this Tampa team. It’s unlikely those three see much ownership tonight, which elevates their GPP appeal. Alternatively, the trio of Chris Kreider, Derek Stepan and Mats Zuccarello is arguably the most dangerous on paper while the second line of Pavel Buchnevich, Mika Zibanejad and Rick Nash certainly has some firepower as well. On defense, Ryan McDonagh is in the midst of another fine season with 34 points in 64 games. He’s locked into nearly 25 minutes of ice-time every night and runs things from the point of the top power-play unit. If you’re in need of some salary relief, both Brady Skjei and Nick Holden are quietly putting up similar numbers as McDonagh and they both shares the duties on the point of the second power-play unit.
Tampa was terrible out of the gates this season and looked dead-in-the-water shortly after the Steven Stamkos injury. However, John Cooper did not let this team quit and they’ve now responded by pulling themselves all the way up to within two points of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Tampa is 8-2-2 over their last 12 games and can really make some noise if they secure two more points this evening. Offensively, it all starts with the Triplets on the top line. Nikita Kucherov has emerged as one of the most gifted offensive players in NHL and has now posted 63 points in 57 games. He clearly loves playing alongside the speedy Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat on the top forward line and #1 power-play unit. Kucherov owns nine goals and ten assists in 13 games since the All-Star break and will obviously have the full attention of Alain Vigneault. With Valtteri Filppula shipped to Philadelphia, Brayden Point has taken full advantage of the chance to center Jonathan Drouin and Alex Killorn on the second line. He’s been held off the score sheet in each of the last three games, but does own five goals and three assists in his last ten games and remains very reasonably priced on most sites. On the blue-line, Victor Hedman is the clear top target. He extended his point streak to five games with an assist over the weekend and now owns 55 points in 61 games.
New York Rangers
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 47.79 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 11, 111.75 CP60
Elite Options
J.T. Miller ($5,900 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 51.11 CF60, 2.52 xGF60, 103.43 PDO
Mats Zuccarello ($6,500 FD, $5,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.17 CF60, 2.71 xGF60, 100.45 PDO
Ryan McDonagh ($5,200 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.52 CF60, 2.71 xGF60, 101.21 PDO
Secondary Options
Derek Stepan ($5,500 FD, $5,900 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.87 CF60, 2.63 xGF60, 101.82 PDO
Kevin Hayes ($5,400 FD, $5,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 46.59 CF60, 2.48 xGF60, 103.7 PDO
Rick Nash ($6,600 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.11 CF60, 2.77 xGF60, 101.61 PDO
Mika Zibanejad ($5,200 FD, $5,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.53 CF60, 2.83 xGF60, 102.03 PDO
Brady Skjei ($4,500 FD, $3,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.65 CF60, 2.56 xGF60, 103.08 PDO
Expected Netminder
Henrik Lundqvist – My Ratings (out of 10): 5.5 Cash, 7 GPP
Tampa Bay Lightning
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 51.34 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -4, 109.43 CP60
Elite Options
Nikita Kucherov ($8,000 FD, $7,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.68 CF60, 3 xGF60, 102.71 PDO
Victor Hedman ($6,600 FD, $6,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.3 CF60, 2.44 xGF60, 100.08 PDO
Secondary Options
Tyler Johnson ($6,000 FD, $5,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.12 CF60, 2.41 xGF60, 100.22 PDO
Ondrej Palat ($5,000 FD, $5,200 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.78 CF60, 2.65 xGF60, 100.11 PDO
Jonathan Drouin ($5,600 FD, $5,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.85 CF60, 2.24 xGF60, 100.26 PDO
Brayden Point ($3,800 FD, $4,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.82 CF60, 2.31 xGF60, 101.12 PDO
Expected Netminder
Andrei Vasilevskiy – My Ratings (out of 10): 6.5 Cash, 7.5 GPP
San Jose Sharks at Winnipeg Jets
| San Jose Sharks | Winnipeg Jets | ||||||||
 | Aaron Dell |  | Connor Hellebuyck | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 38-19-7 | 30-30-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.76 | 2.34 | 16.90% | 81.10% | Team Stats | 2.97 | 3.11 | 17.40% | 77.40% |
San Jose dropped a tough 3-1 decision in Minnesota last night and now have the tough task of playing back-to-back games on the road as they’ll head to Winnipeg. While tired legs are at least a bit of a concern at this point in the season, San Jose still sits in first place in the Pacific Division and have defeated Winnipeg in both prior meetings this season. Breaking down the Sharks simply has to start with Brent Burns as he’s having one of the best offensive seasons we’ve ever seen from a defenseman. Burns lead San Jose with 67 points in 64 games and his 255 shots on goal leads the entire NHL. With Winnipeg being both highly penalized and sporting an ugly 77.4% penalty kill, Burns is a very tough fade this evening in cash games. Up-front, Peter DeBoer relies heavily on each of his top two forward lines to carry the load offensively. Joe Pavelski, Patrick Marleau and Logan Couture all join Burns with 20+ goals on the season and all three forwards look like fine options tonight considering that Winnipeg has surrendered an ugly 3.11 goals against per game this season. If you’re searching for value, Kevin Labanc skates alongside Joe Thornton (who is also cheap) and Joe Pavelski on the top forward line and also sees a healthy dose of playing time with the second power-play unit.
Winnipeg rolled over the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday night and still find themselves with at least a small hope of grabbing a playoff spot in the Western Conference. Playing San Jose is not ideal from a fantasy perspective, but they do at least draw them on the second half of back-to-back games. Offensively, things are pretty straight forward from Winnipeg as their top two forward lines are responsible for the vast majority of their offense. Mark Scheifele leads the charge with 66 points in 63 games and has developed a very nice rapport with Calder Trophy contender Patrik Laine and Mathieu Perreault. Laine and Scheifele have combined for 13 goals and 19 assists in 13 games since the All-Star break and Perrault remains very reasonably priced across the industry despite the fact that he’s riding a seven-game point streak that has seen him rack up three goals and eight assists. Meanwhile, Blake Wheeler is one of the best two-way forwards in the NHL and headlines the top forward line alongside Nikolaj Ehlers and Bryan Little. Wheeler has been red-hot lately as well; posting three goals and five assists during his four-game point streak. There are some other stud options on the blue-line tonight, but don’t sleep on Dustin Byfuglien. Big Buff dished out a pair of assists against Colorado on Saturday and is now riding seven-game point streak of his own (two goals and seven assists). He leads the entire NHL in average ice-time per game and is not shy about unloading his cannon slap shot from the point of the top power-play. Alternatively, Jacob Trouba has flashed plenty of offensive upside and the former first-round pick potted his sixth goal of the season in their last game.
San Jose Sharks
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 51.03 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 23, 114.02 CP60
Elite Options
Joe Pavelski ($7,600 FD, $7,000 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 59.49 CF60, 2.58 xGF60, 101.56 PDO
Logan Couture ($6,700 FD, $6,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.29 CF60, 2.91 xGF60, 103.53 PDO
Brent Burns ($8,400 FD, $8,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 66.6 CF60, 3.07 xGF60, 103.16 PDO
Secondary Options
Patrick Marleau ($5,900 FD, $5,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.65 CF60, 2.86 xGF60, 101.96 PDO
Kevin Labanc ($3,500 FD, $3,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 56.61 CF60, 2.52 xGF60, 102.85 PDO
Tomas Hertl ($4,800 FD, $4,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 64.42 CF60, 2.56 xGF60, 96.93 PDO
Expected Netminder
Martin Jones – My Ratings (out of 10): 5.5 Cash, 7 GPP
Winnipeg Jets
Team Metrics – 2016-17 – 49.52 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -8, 106.28 CP60
Elite Options
Mark Scheifele ($7,600 FD, $6,600 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.29 CF60, 2.57 xGF60, 102.38 PDO
Patrik Laine ($7,700 FD, $7,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 50.76 CF60, 2.47 xGF60, 104.59 PDO
Blake Wheeler ($6,800 FD, $6,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 60.12 CF60, 2.78 xGF60, 97.09 PDO
Dustin Byfuglien ($6,000 FD, $6,100 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 53.47 CF60, 2.51 xGF60, 99.5 PDO
Secondary Options
Nikolaj Ehlers ($5,300 FD, $5,800 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 55.57 CF60, 2.57 xGF60, 101.12 PDO
Mathieu Perreault ($5,200 FD, $4,500 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 57.39 CF60, 2.62 xGF60, 95.97 PDO
Bryan Little ($5,100 FD, $5,400 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 58.46 CF60, 2.83 xGF60, 99.99 PDO
Jacob Trouba ($4,700 FD, $5,300 DK) – 16-17 Metrics – 54.57 CF60, 2.5 xGF60, 99.75 PDO
Expected Netminder
Connor Hellebuyck – My Ratings (out of 10): 5.5 Cash, 6.5 GPP