NHL Grind Down: Thursday, November 17th
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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres
| Tampa Bay Lightning | Buffalo Sabres | ||||||||
 | Ben Bishop |  | Robin Lehner | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 10-6-1 | 5-7-4 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.12 | 2.59 | 23.90% | 84.30% | Team Stats | 1.88 | 2.44 | 20.80% | 82.80% |
The Tampa Bay Lightning have been dealt a severe blow to their playoff chances as Steven Stamkos will be out with a torn meniscus tear. It’s unclear how long he will be out, but it usually takes six to eight weeks to heal. Now the Lightning will look to mix things up a bit and move on until his return. The top line has Ondrej Palat with Nikita Kucherov and Vladislav Namestnikov. This line will also serve as the team’s top power play line along with defenseman Nikita Nesterov. The line of Ryan Callahan, Valtteri Filppula and Jonathan Drouin is a bit interesting here on the road as there’s no doubt the Sabres will try to shut down the top line. Drouin makes for a decent one-off play here as he will see a decent amount of minutes on the top power play a well. You could even use Alex Killorn and Tyler Johnson for a GPP pair but as far as cash goes, I’d wait until we see how things are going to pan out without Stamkos for a while.
It’s been reported that Ryan O’Reilly will miss his fourth game of the season as the Sabres continue to struggle. Buffalo has only scored ten goals over the last eight games while losing the last five. They have managed two power play goals over the last three games so if there’s a line to target, it would probably be the players who get the extra ice time. Kyle Okposo and Matt Moulson fit the bill here although they play on different lines, so using either one as one-off is more than likely the way to go here. Moulson has scored five of his goals with the man advantage while tallying 42 shots in the first 16 games. Evander Kane skates with Okposo and Sam Reinhart on the top line which would put them in play for deeper tournament plays. Rasmus Ristolainen and Jake McCabe have been playing the points with the man advantage but unless you are stacking Sabres in a GPP, I think I’d pass here.
Elite Plays
BUF: None
TB: Nikita Kucherov
Secondary Plays
BUF: Kyle Okposo, Matt Moulson, Rasmus Ristolainen
TB: Ondrej Palat, Vladislav Namestnikov, Nikita Nesterov, Jonathan Drouin
Winnipeg Jets at Philadelphia Flyers
| Winnipeg Jets | Philadelphia Flyers | ||||||||
 | Connor Hellebuyck |  | Steve Mason | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 9-7-2 | 7-7-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.94 | 2.78 | 16.40% | 82.50% | Team Stats | 3.24 | 3.53 | 27.40% | 78.80% |
For the first time in a long time the Winnipeg Jets are actually part of the conversation where the playoffs are concerned. They sit in second place in the Central division with 20 points, which is second best in the conference and seem to be gaining steam fueled by a 4-0 win against Chicago Tuesday night. Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele and Patrik Laine were used as the top line and should be in play tonight against the ‘Jekyll and Hyde’ Philadelphia Flyers. This trio has combined for 24 points over the last six games while finding the scoresheet six times when the team has the man advantage. The second line of Blake Wheeler, Nicolas Petan and Mark Dano is in play here as well against a Philadelphia team that has given up 62 goals in 17, the most on the league. Wheeler is the one-off play here however as he and defenseman Dustin Byfuglien receive the extra minutes of ice time with the top line on the power play. Byfuglien continues to shoot the puck on net but has yet to score as he has just nine assists in 18 games with only one of them coming with the man advantage. You may want to look elsewhere for your defensemen tonight.
The Flyers have only one win to their credit in their last five games and now it looks like they have to go with Steve Mason once again as their top goalie. Michael Neuvirth needs four to six weeks to recover from an injury he sustained earlier in the week. Claude Giroux, Brayden Schenn and Wayne Simmonds get the call on the top line as they also anchor the team’s top power play that has scored six goals over the last six games. Simmonds leads the team in goals with eight while Giroux has been busy dishing out 12 assists over the first 17 games Philadelphia has played. Jakub Voracek is your one-off here as he leads the team in scoring with 17 points while playing the point on the top power play unit. Travis Konecny and Sean Couturier skate with Voracek on the second line and could be viewed as a GPP play tonight. Shayne Gostisbehere will be scratched form tonight’s game so Michael Del Zotto, who has had the hot hand from the point as he has collected four points over the last five games, could be a nice fill in here. Mark Streit is also an option as he may very well head up the Flyers power play unit. The Flyers should score some goals here on home ice so rostering a few may be a good idea.
Elite Plays
WIN: Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine
PHL: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds
Secondary Plays
WIN: Nikolaj Ehlers, Blake Wheeler, Nicolas Petan
PHL: Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn
Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs
| Florida Panthers | Toronto Maple Leafs | ||||||||
 | James Reimer |  | Frederik Andersen | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 8-7-1 | 7-6-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.75 | 2.56 | 15.80% | 81.30% | Team Stats | 3.13 | 3.50 | 23.30% | 83.30% |
What we could be witnessing here tonight is a tale of two teams, one going up and one going down. The Panthers have not been able to get it together so far this season as they aren’t getting the production they need form key players. Jonathan Marchessault leads the team in points from the top line with 14 but after that it’s second liner Vicnet Trocheck with 10 and third liner Colton Sceviour with nine. Usually teams that do well have a t least a duo that is in the top four on the team’s scoring list but that it is not the case here. Aleksander Barkov and Jaromir Jagr skate on the top line with Marchessault but have only contributed eight and six points so far this season, which is the exact number that the team leader has scored by himself. In deeper GPP play you could go with Trocheck, Jussi Jokinen and Reilly Smith as they should see some room on the ice skating from the second line but the safer bet is using Trocheck as a one-off here. Keith Yandle and Aaron Ekblad man the points on the team’s power play that has not lit the lamp once over the last three games. Both are starting to score a little so either one wouldn’t be a bad play here.
Toronto is a team on the way up as the youth movement has come into full view with guys like Auston Matthews and William Nylander. They still give up way too many goals but at least it’s now a bit more interesting to watch them play. The line of Tyler Bozak, Mitchell Marner and James van Riemsdyk has been red hot of late as they have combined to score eight goals and assist on 15 others over the last five games. van Riemsdyk and Nazem Kadri lead the team in goals with seven apiece so using Kadri here as a one-off isn’t a bad play as he skates with Leo Komarov and Connor Brown on the team’s third line. Zach Hyman skates with Matthews and Nylander and there has been some hesitation of late in terms of diving right in and rostering them as they have slowed down a bit from their fast start. Part of the reason is that after Matthews scored four goals the first night, he has only managed two since then and the other reason is that the Bozak line has caught fire, which would make them the more productive play. Morgan Rielly has tallied five of his ten points over the last five games which would give him the upper hand over fellow defenseman Jake Gardiner if you were to take a Toronto defenseman tonight.
Elite Plays
FLA: Jonathan Marchessault
TOR: James van Riemsdyk, Mitchell Marner
Secondary Plays
FLA: Jaromir Jagr, Keith Yandle, Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck
TOR: Tyler Bozak, William Nylander, Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly
Nashville Predators at Ottawa Senators
| Nashville Predators | Ottawa Senators | ||||||||
 | Pekka Rinne |  | Craig Anderson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 6-6-3 | 10-5-1 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.73 | 2.73 | 23.60% | 81.30% | Team Stats | 2.19 | 2.31 | 8.90% | 87.50% |
After winning three straight games the Nashville Predators dropped their first game of the current three-game road trip to the Toronto Maple Leafs by a score of 6-2. Tonight they draw an Ottawa team that has been surprisingly good so far as they are 6-2-1 at home and sit in second place in the Atlantic division. The top line of Viktor Arvidsson, Ryan Johansen and James Neal has been productive over the last five games with Neal leading the way with six goals and an assist. On the road however Ottawa will have their best defensive unit against them all night and that could be a bit problematic as the Senators have only given up six goals in their last five games on home ice. Look for the second line that features Filip Forsberg and Mike Fisher to have a few chances at even strength but as far as the power play goes, forget it. Ottawa has not let up a goal in the last 27 times they had a man in the box. Roman Josi and P.K. Subban logs the most ice time from the point but taking one of them here could be a mistake as neither has come to the forefront where scoring from the blue line is concerned.
Whatever the Senators have been doing so far this year it seems to be working. They have utilized the three-line approach to where it has been tough for the opposition to cover all three lines that contain at least one skill player. A lot of teams are trying this method but it seems Ottawa has the best results by far as they are 10-5-1 on the young season. Can they keep it going is the question. The defense and goaltending has kept them in most games as they have only scored 38 goals in 16 games, which is the third least in the conference next to New Jersey and Buffalo. If they don’t start scoring soon the losses could start to pile up. Ryan Dzingel leads the team with five goals as he will now skate on a line with Kyle Turris and Bobby Ryan. Turris has been ok of late but Ryan is clearly struggling this season as he has just three goals and three assists in the first 16 games Ottawa has played. Mike Hoffman skated with Derick Brassard and Tom Pyatt last game and if memory serves me correctly, that was the first game Ryan and Brassard were not on a line together all season. Erik Karlsson leads the team in points from the back line with 14 points so far this season. He is easily in play here as he logs over 27 minutes a game while playing almost all of the minutes available with the man advantage. The Senators are so close to becoming a bad team it’s not even funny but for tonight, they should find some success against a Nashville team that is 1-5-2 away from home.
Elite Plays
NSH: James Neal
OTT: Erik Karlsson
Secondary Plays
NSH: Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi
OTT: Ryan Dzingel, Kyle Turris, Mike Hoffman, Derick Brassard
San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues
| San Jose Sharks | St. Louis Blues | ||||||||
 | Martin Jones |  | Jake Allen | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 9-7-0 | 8-6-3 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.31 | 2.25 | 19.10% | 89.50% | Team Stats | 2.41 | 2.76 | 22.00% | 89.70% |
The Sharks continue their six-game road trip which has seen them win the first three games, but drop Tuesday night’s game to Carolina by a score of 1-0. I am not sure whether the letdown was because of the Sharks having back-up goalie Aaron Dell in net or not. Whatever the reason, they gave him no support whatsoever as he stopped 32 of 33 shots en route to a .970 save percentage for the game. Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton and Joel Ward skate on the team’s top line in what surely looks like a game that a lot of folks will target tonight. Logan Couture and Mikkel Boedker look to be in play here from the second line while Patrick Marleau continues his downward spiral on the Sharks third line. Marleau gets the top minutes on the team’s top power play unit but if he continues to score five points every 16 games, I’m sure they may consider taking off that top unit. San Jose is another team that hasn’t been scoring as much as they’d like to this season as they hold on to third place in the Pacific division by scoring just 37 goals in 16 games. Pavelski and Thornton make a decent pair here while Couture can be used as a one-off as they all get the top minute while the Sharks have the man advantage. Defensively Brent Burns is the play if you can afford him as he leads the team in points with 14 and shots with 75. The Blues do have a tendency to give up some goals in bunches, but I think they should be a bit more focused tonight much like they were in their 4-1 win against Buffalo the other night.
After getting trounced by Columbus by a score of 8-4 on Saturday coach Ken Hitchcock said that the Blues had their best practice of the season right before beating Buffalo by a score of 4-1. The Sharks don’t give up many goals which is part of the reason they are 9-7 but I think the Blues score a few here tonight. It took a little while for Vladimir Tarasenko to get going but once he did, he’s been a man possessed. The Blues winger has managed to snare nine points over the last six games which has catapulted him to his rightful spot atop the Blues scoring leader chart with a total of six goals and 12 assists in 17 games. Jori Lehtera and Robby Fabbri skate with him on the top line and by pairing Tarasenko with one of them should provide you enough salary relief to make a decent cash game line up tonight. Jaden Schwartz, Paul Stastny and Alexander Steen make up the team’s second line and are joined by Tarasenko and defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk to form the Blues top power play unit. Shattenkirk is in play here and could be the play of the night on the back line as he has a goal and seven assists in the last six games. Look for this one to be a good one to watch with the possibility of a lot of goals being scored.
Elite Plays
SJ: Brent Burns, Joe Pavelski
STL: Vladimir Tarasenko, Kevin Shattenkirk
Secondary Plays
SJ: Joe Thornton, Logan Couture
STL: Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen, Robby Fabbri