NHL Grind Down: Thursday, October 27th - Page Two
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Dallas Stars at Winnipeg Jets
| Dallas Stars | Winnipeg Jets | ||||||||
 | Antti Niemi |  | Connor Hellebuyck | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 2-2-1 | 2-3-0 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.83 | 3.00 | 15.80% | 78.90% | Team Stats | 2.67 | 3.67 | 10.00% | 68.80% |
With injuries everywhere up front, the Dallas Stars front office and coaching staff has to be somewhat pleased that they’ve held things together and will enter tonight’s game with a respectable 3-2-1 record after six games. With the likes of Mattias Janmark, Cody Eakin, Patrick Sharp, Jiri Hudler and Jason Spezza all basically ruled out for tonight’s game, it looks like Lindy Ruff may be forced to break apart the dynamic duo of Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn. While understandable from a hockey standpoint, any way you look at it, this situation is not good news for Seguin, Benn or the Stars as a whole. All is not lost, however, as Seguin and Benn will still join forces on Dallas’ #1 power-play unit where they’ll get a crack at Winnipeg penalty kill that finished near the bottom of the NHL last season (78.4%). Seguin and Benn feasted on this Winnipeg team last season, combining for seven goals and four assists in their five meetings which gives them considerable GPP appeal, particularly if many users are scared away by this whole situation. If you’re in search of some value, rookie Devin Shore has hit the ground running thus far this season with a goal and five assists in six games and has now earned a spot alongside Benn and Seguin on the #1 power-play unit. On defense, John Klingberg is easily the top option on the Dallas blue-line and is another method to grab some reasonably priced exposure to both Benn and Seguin.
In the second-half of a home-and-home series between the Stars and the Jets, the scene shifts to Manitoba, Canada for tonight’s battle between these two Central Division foes. Dallas escaped with a 3-2 victory on Tuesday night, but it took a rare terrific outing from Antti Niemi to get the job done and Winnipeg simply can’t afford to fall too far behind this early in the very competitive Western Conference. With the Stars notorious for pushing the pace offensively, this does look like a nice opportunity for Winnipeg to get things worked out offensively. Paul Maurice was expecting to have a rather balanced scoring attack entering this season, but the lions share of the Winnipeg offense has come from the trio on top forward line; Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler and the #2 overall pick Patrik Laine. Those three have combined for 11 of Winnipeg’s 16 goals this season and all three also see a healthy dose of playing time with the man-advantage. Bryan Little injury has really hurt Winnipeg’s depth up-front, and while the second line of Nikolaj Ehlers, Mathieu Perreault and Drew Stafford looks fairly dangerous on paper, it’s just hard to trust them in cash games at this point until they start producing. On defense, Dustin Byfuglien is expensive but for good reason. He’s as offensively aggressive as any other defenseman in the league and has already dished out four assists on the young season. He’s armed with a cannon slap shot that he never hesitates to fire from the point of the power-play and has seen 30+ minutes of ice-time in four of the six games this season.
Dallas Stars
Team Metrics – 2016 – 52.56 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 11, 118.93 CP60
Elite Options
Tyler Seguin ($7,900 FD, $8,000 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 65.82 CF60, 3.09 xGF60, 98.24 PDO
Jamie Benn ($7,900 FD, $7,800 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 65.06 CF60, 3.02 xGF60, 98.42 PDO
Secondary Options
John Klingberg ($5,000 FD, $5,800 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 70.1 CF60, 3.18 xGF60, 100.78 PDO
Devin Shore ($3,900 FD, $3,300 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – NA
Expected Netminder
Antti Niemi – My Ratings (out of 10): 4.5 Cash, 5 GPP
Winnipeg Jets
Team Metrics – 2016 – 51.38 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 0, 109.26 CP60
Elite Options
Blake Wheeler ($7,300 FD, $7,200 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 64.39 CF60, 3.02 xGF60, 101.54 PDO
Dustin Byfuglien ($6,500 FD, $6,500 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 61.82 CF60, 2.91 xGF60, 100.18 PDO
Secondary Options
Patrik Laine ($5,000 FD, $6,200 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – NA
Mark Scheifele ($7,300 FD, $7,300 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 63.07 CF60, 3.06 xGF60, 102.09 PDO
Mathieu Perreault ($4,400 FD, $4,000 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 64.5 CF60, 2.84 xGF60, 97.75 PDO
Expected Netminder
Connor Hellebuyck – My Ratings (out of 10): 5 Cash, 6 GPP
Detroit Red Wings at St. Louis Blues
| Detroit Red Wings | St. Louis Blues | ||||||||
 | Petr Mrazek |  | Jake Allen | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 4-2-0 | 4-1-1 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.43 | 2.43 | 24.00% | 73.90% | Team Stats | 2.86 | 2.71 | 26.10% | 95.00% |
Detroit defeated Carolina 4-2 on Tuesday night to push their winning streak to five games and will look to keep things rolling tonight as they head invade the Scottrade Center to battle their former Central Division rival the St. Louis Blues. Jeff Blashill has his team playing very well lately, but their are some red flags that some of this early season success is unsustainable; 1) The loss of Pavel Datsyuk has really hurt their puck possession abilities (45.81 CF%), 2) They never really addressed their shortcomings on defense and have allowed a troubling 33.11 SA/60 thus far, and 3) their 106.34 PDO hints to both some very lucky bounces offensively as well as some superior goaltending from the duo of Petr Mrazek and Jimmy Howard. Now, with that said, the Wings are averaging 3.43 goals per game this season and have the team speed that likely cost the St. Louis Blues coaching staff to lose some sleep last night. While Henrik Zetterberg is still the household name in Detroit, and while he’s certainly not the offensive force he once was, he’s still more than capable as he centers a line alongside the very talented Tomas Tatar at even strength and brings his experience and creativity to the #1 power-play unit. Alternatively, the offseason signing of Thomas Vanek flew under the radar for the most part but has already paid big dividends as the former 40-goal scorer has jumped out of the gates with four goals and four assists in the first seven games. He’s joined by speed demons Andreas Athanasiou and Darren Helm at even strength and has also earned a role alongside Zetterberg on the top power-play unit. With all of that said, Detroit’s most complete (and probably most dangerous in the long run), is the trio of Gustav Nyquist, Frans Nielsen and Dylan Larkin. They’ll likely draw plenty of attention from Alex Steen’s pestering defense, but they bring plenty of GPP upside into this tough matchup. On defense, Mike Green is the one guy to consider for the Wings. He quarterbacks their #1 power-play unit and is off to a fine start with three goals and four assists in the first seven games.
After an uninspired team effort against the Calgary Flames on Tuesday night, it’s unlikely that Ken Hitchcock took it easy on his hockey club in practice yesterday. The Blues came out completely flat against the defensively challenged Calgary Flames and, not only lost a 4-1 decision against their former teammate Brian Elliott, but also managed just 11 SOG through the first two periods. Hitchcock will expect better, and that’s probably not the best news for the Detroit Red Wings considering some of the stats I mentioned above. The St. Louis Blues depth will likely be a key to their success this season, but on a nine-game slate tonight, it doesn’t seem necessary to look outside their top two scoring lines from a fantasy perspective. Discussing this St. Louis offensive attack has to start with Vladimir Tarasenko as he’s already tallied four goals and four assists in seven games and sits second in the NHL with 33 SOG. He’s slated to be joined by David Perron and Jaden Schwartz at even strength and is incredibly dangerous on the wing of the #1 power-play unit. The Wings will likely try to shadow him as much as possible with the Frans Nielsen line, but it’s not enough to move him outside of that top tier of targets at the wing position. Alternatively, the Blue’s second line of Robby Fabbri, Paul Stastny and Alex Steen are more than capable of making Detroit pay if they do indeed focus too heavily on slowing down Tarasenko. Steen is one of the best two-way forwards in the NHL and is also off to a hot start with two goals and five assists in the first seven games. He joins Tarasenko on the #1 power-play unit and will likely be far less owned across the industry, giving him plenty of GPP appeal. Simply put, the Blues are stacked on defense. Kevin Shattenkirk, Colton Parayko and Alex Pietrangelo all see plenty of run with the man advantage and are offensively talented and aggressive.
Detroit Red Wings
Team Metrics – 2016 – 51.73 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -8, 104.46 CP60
Elite Options
None
Secondary Options
Dylan Larkin ($5,300 FD, $5,500 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 57.32 CF60, 2.55 xGF60, 102.1 PDO
Henrik Zetterberg ($5,300 FD, $5,000 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 53.53 CF60, 2.49 xGF60, 98.98 PDO
Thomas Vanek ($5,000 FD, $5,200 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 50.23 CF60, 2.25 xGF60, 101.24 PDO
Mike Green ($5,100 FD, $5,300 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 57.98 CF60, 2.64 xGF60, 98.47 PDO
Expected Netminder
Petr Mrazek – My Ratings (out of 10): 6 Cash, 7.5 GPP
St. Louis Blues
Team Metrics – 2016 – 52 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 15, 109.05 CP60
Elite Options
Vladimir Tarasenko ($7,800 FD, $7,900 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 63.12 CF60, 2.9 xGF60, 101.26 PDO
Alex Steen ( FD, DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 56.3 CF60, 2.37 xGF60, 100.99 PDO
Kevin Shattenkirk ($5,500 FD, $5,500 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 55.45 CF60, 2.29 xGF60, 98.02 PDO
Secondary Options
Paul Stastny ($5,400 FD, $5,200 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 63.77 CF60, 2.86 xGF60, 100.47 PDO
Colton Parayko ($4,800 FD, $4,900 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 60.53 CF60, 2.77 xGF60, 102.3 PDO
Alex Pietrangelo ($5,800 FD, $5,200 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 58.64 CF60, 2.71 xGF60, 101.35 PDO
Expected Netminder
Jake Allen – My Ratings (out of 10): 7.5 Cash, 7.5 GPP
Nashville Predators at Los Angeles Kings
| Nashville Predators | Los Angeles Kings | ||||||||
 | Marek Mazanec |  | Peter Budaj | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 2-3-0 | 2-3-0 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 3.00 | 3.00 | 47.40% | 77.80% | Team Stats | 2.67 | 3.33 | 17.60% | 73.70% |
It’s been a disappointing start to the season in the Music City, and they did not start off their west coast road trip the way they had hopes as they were pounded 6-1 by the Anaheim Ducks last night. The bad news is they won’t have much time to recover as they stay in the L.A. Area for tonight’s clash with the Los Angeles Kings. It’s obviously still very early in the season, but if the Predators don’t snap out of their funk before the end of this road trip, they might be staring at an up hill battle all season in the very unforgiving Central Division. As long as I’m touching on the bad news, there are two things that are red-flags for me in this matchup; 1) The Kings allowed just 2.22 goals against per game at the Staples Center last season, and 2) Anze Kopitar is one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL. Ryan Johansen and James Neal team up on the top forward line and #1 power-play unit and can simply be an offensive force, but that also means they’ll likely see a very heavy dose of Kopitar and that enough for me to downgrade them both slightly in my rankings. With that said, that methodology would create some open ice for Filip Forsberg and Mike Ribeiro on the second line and they’ve proven to be very capable of lighting the lamp on a regular basis. On defense, both P.K. Subban and Roman Josi are very gifted offensively, locked into huge minutes of ice-time and facilitate things from the point of the Nashville power-play.
While the Predators were in action last night in Northern California, the Kings were resting up after picking up three straight overtime victories to even their record at 3-3-0 on the young season. They struggled mightily to generate much offense over the first week, but things seem to be coming a bit easier for the Kings now that they’ve welcomed Tanner Pearson back into the lineup. With Pearson back in the mix, Darryl Sutter once again has the ability to attack his opposition with two very dangerous scoring lines. Captain Anze Kopitar tends to draw the most attention and he’s slated to join Tyler Toffoli (and Dwight King) on the top line and #1 power-play unit. That leaves Jeff Carter to play alongside Tanner Pearson (and David Setoguchi) on the second line with Carter also having the luxury of playing up-front on that top power-play unit. After being suspended to start the season, Pearson has made his presence felt since returning by racking up four goals and two assists in just four games. With Kopitar likely being tasked with a few added defensive responsibilities in this matchup, I’ll give the slight edge to the duo of Carter and Pearson. On defense, Drew Doughty is a known commodity and about as stable of an option as you’ll find. He tallied 51 points last season, shoots the puck with regularity and logs as heavy of a workload as anyone in the NHL. Alternatively, Jake Muzzin may be pointless on the young season, but he’s developed into a very fine defenseman on both ends of the ice and has topped 40 points in each of the last two seasons.
Nashville Predators
Team Metrics – 2016 – 52.47 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 5, 109 CP60
Elite Options
Roman Josi ($6,800 FD, $6,400 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 59.5 CF60, 2.39 xGF60, 99.36 PDO
P.K. Subban ($6,900 FD, $6,500 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 62.06 CF60, 2.64 xGF60, 101.25 PDO
Secondary Options
Filip Forsberg ($6,900 FD, $6,100 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 65.76 CF60, 2.87 xGF60, 100.55 PDO
Ryan Johansen ($6,100 FD, $5,500 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 54.26 CF60, 2.43 xGF60, 102.05 PDO
James Neal ($6,500 FD, $5,700 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 59.24 CF60, 2.39 xGF60, 103.32 PDO
Expected Netminder
Pekka Rinne – My Ratings (out of 10): 6 Cash, 6 GPP
Los Angeles Kings
Team Metrics – 2016 – 56.37 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 19, 112.19 CP60
Elite Options
Jeff Carter ($6,100 FD, $5,800 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 68.44 CF60, 3.01 xGF60, 99.68 PDO
Drew Doughty ($6,000 FD, $5,600 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 64.18 CF60, 2.72 xGF60, 100.01 PDO
Secondary Options
Anze Kopitar ($7,300 FD, $6,000 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 63.71 CF60, 2.82 xGF60, 102.5 PDO
Tyler Toffoli ($5,600 FD, $5,600 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 71.4 CF60, 3 xGF60, 102.99 PDO
Jake Muzzin ($4,700 FD, $4,700 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 67.29 CF60, 2.8 xGF60, 98.01 PDO
Expected Netminder
Peter Budaj – My Ratings (out of 10): 6 Cash, 6 GPP
Columbus Blue Jackets at San Jose Sharks
| Columbus Blue Jackets | San Jose Sharks | ||||||||
 | Sergei Bobrovsky |  | Martin Jones | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 2-2-0 | 3-3-0 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.60 | 2.80 | 44.40% | 93.80% | Team Stats | 2.29 | 2.71 | 15.00% | 78.90% |
After dropping a 3-2 overtime decision to the Los Angeles Kings on Tuesday, the Blue Jackets will continue their tour of California tonight as they head into the Bay Area. Columbus likely won’t be winning any defensive awards this season, but this team does have the ability to generate some offense. They generated a league best 10.31 scoring chances per 60 minutes last season and have a two-headed offensive attack that can keep the pressure on opposing defenses. Heading to San Jose to battle the defending Western Conference Champions is clearly not ideal, but there’s still some GPP appeal scattered throughout this lineup. Brandon Dubinsky and Cam Atkinson join up with Matt Calvert on a very quick and dangerous top line, while Nick Foligno, Brandon Saad and Alexander Wennberg have developed a nice rapport on the second line. The Blue Jackets are really counting on Foligno to bounce back after an awful 15-16 season, and with a goal and four assists in the first five games, he looks to be responding. On defense, Seth Jones continues to improve and looks poised for his best offensive season yet. Rookie Zach Werenski has been very impressive in the early going this season and has already joined Jones on the point of the #1 power-play unit. Werenski has potted two goals and added three assists in five games this season and both him and Jones are fine options considering their very reasonable asking prices and San Jose’s mediocre 80.5% penalty kill from last season.
Obviously, after representing the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Finals last season, there are some big expectations in the Bay Area for their Sharks. While it hasn’t been a terrific start to the season for them out of the gates, they did pick up a big 2-1 victory over the Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday to push their record to 4-3-0 through seven games. They’ll welcome the Columbus Blue Jackets to the Shark Tank this evening and that matchup makes will likely keep tonight’s early evening GPP leaders in complete suspense all night as I’d expect some of the ownership levels here to be quite high as the Columbus has allowed a troubling 34.2 SA/G and subsequent 3.28 xGA60 thus far this season. When targeting the Sharks, the first player you really need to look at is defenseman Brent Burns. Squeezing him into a lineup is not always overly easy to accomplish, but with three goals and six assists in the first seven games as well as an NHL best 35 SOG, he’s hand-down the #1 option on the blue-line this evening. Up-front, Joe Pavelski sits tied with Burns for the team lead with nine points and lit the Blue Jackets up for four goals in just two meetings last season. As usual, he’ll be joined by Joe Thornton and Tomas Hertl on the top forward line, with Logan Couture headlining the second line with Joonas Donskoi and Mikkel Boedker on his wings. Alternatively, Patrick Marleau has found himself all the way down on the third line at even strength, but still offers plenty of upside as he joins Thornton, Pavelski, Couture and Burns on a very, very dangerous #1 power-play unit.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Team Metrics – 2016 – 48.03 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential -11, 111.47 CP60
Elite Options
None
Secondary Options
Nick Foligno ($5,100 FD, $4,100 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 55.58 CF60, 2.84 xGF60, 98.79 PDO
Brandon Saad ($6,300 FD, $5,000 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 58.07 CF60, 3 xGF60, 101.99 PDO
Brandon Dubinsky ( FD, DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 59.66 CF60, 3.21 xGF60, 97.94 PDO
Seth Jones ($4,800 FD, $4,600 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 61.96 CF60, 2.84 xGF60, 97.69 PDO
Zach Werenski ($4,500 FD, $5,100 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – NA
Expected Netminder
Sergei Bobrovsky – My Ratings (out of 10): 5.5 Cash, 7 GPP
San Jose Sharks
Team Metrics – 2016 – 51.69 CF%, 5×5 Goal Differential 15, 109.23 CP60
Elite Options
Joe Pavelski ($7,900 FD, $7,400 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 62.9 CF60, 2.76 xGF60, 103.64 PDO
Brent Burns ($8,000 FD, $8,200 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 62.34 CF60, 2.77 xGF60, 99.79 PDO
Secondary Options
Logan Couture ($6,600 FD, $6,100 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 57.16 CF60, 2.59 xGF60, 100.97 PDO
Joe Thornton ($5,200 FD, $5,600 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 63.14 CF60, 2.89 xGF60, 104.43 PDO
Patrick Marleau ($5,000 FD, $4,600 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 55.19 CF60, 2.56 xGF60, 97.57 PDO
Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($4,500 FD, $4,300 DK) – 15-16 Metrics – 55.99 CF60, 2.46 xGF60, 101.21 PDO
Expected Netminder
Martin Jones – My Ratings (out of 10): 7.5 Cash, 8 GPP