NHL Grind Down: Thursday, October 8th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2016-10-16 11:03:17

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Winnipeg Jets at Boston Bruins – 07:00 PM EDT

Winnipeg Jets					Boston Bruins
			Ondrej Pavelec					Tuukka Rask
			Record					Record
			43-26					41-27
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.72	2.49	17.80%	81.80%	Team Stats	2.55	2.45	17.80%	82.00%

The Jets finally ended years of futility last season by grabbing a playoff spot in the Western Conference, and with basically the same team returning, anything less would certainly be disappointing in Winnipeg. The Jets have the luxury of two very capable scoring lines and they are also rock solid on defense, especially after acquiring Tyler Myers from the Buffalo Sabres last season. Goaltending is the only real question mark surrounding this team as it broke camp, but both Ondrej Pavelec and Michael Hutchinson showed flashes of excellence at times last season.

With a trip to Beantown awaiting them to open the 2015-16 season, the Jets will immediately be put to the test. While this Boston team looks to be aging and perhaps falling from dominance, they’re still loaded with plenty of grizzled veterans, and it’s never going to be easy to escape the T.D. Garden Arena with two points. The Bruins will be motivated to avenge missing the playoffs last season, but with several key players no longer with the team (Dougie Hamilton and Milan Lucic) and Zdeno Chara unlikely to be ready for the opener, it’s certainly wise to temper your expectations.

Both of these teams are defensively sound, but it looks like their two organizations heading in opposite directions. Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand represent one of the best defensive forward lines in the game today, and they’ll likely be tasked with slowing down the Jets’ most dangerous group of forwards (Ladd, Little and Wheeler). With that in mind, the team’s second line, centered by the very talented Matt Scheifele has my attention. He’s joined by Matthew Perreault and newcomer Nikolaj Ehlers, and all three should also see some time on the team’s #2 power-play unit as well. Ehlers was a former first-round pick and has topped 100 points in each of his last two seasons in the minors. Dustin Byfuglien is a fantasy force on the blue-line and is another solid options in this one. As for Boston, they’ll be leaning on David Krejci to quickly develop a nice rapport with the newly acquired Matt Beleskey and provide an offensive spark the team was lacking last season. On Defense, the loss of Dougie Hamilton has opened the door for Torey Krug to take another step forward, and with an abundance of power-play minutes locked up, he’s a nice option on the blue-line.

Elite Plays

WPG: Dustin Byfuglien, Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers (value)
BOS: Torey Krug

Secondary Plays

WPG: Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler, Tobias Enstrom
BOS: Tuukka Rask, David Krejci, Matt Beleskey, Patrice Bergeron

Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres – 07:00 PM EDT

Ottawa Senators					Buffalo Sabres
			Craig Anderson					Robin Lehner
			Record					Record
			43-26					23-51
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.83	2.54	16.80%	82.90%	Team Stats	1.87	3.28	13.40%	75.10%

The Buffalo Sabres were the doormat of the NHL last season, but armed with several new toys, they should take a bit (but not huge) step forward during the 2015-16 season. The team is undoubtedly armed with much more talent, but it’s still one of the youngest teams in the league and still facing glaring depth issues on both upfront and on the blue-line. The team’s top-two scoring lines look very capable, and newcomers Ryan O’Reilly, Evander Kane and second-overall pick Jack Eichel all make this a much more dangerous hockey club. They owned an abysmal and league-worst 75.1% penalty kill last season, and that obviously needs to be a major focal point if they want to make any giant strides in 2015-16.

The Senators rode some very hot goaltending into the Eastern Conference playoffs last season and return essentially the exact same team this time around. While I have my doubts that they’ll get the same level of production between the pipes, Craig Anderson (and Andrew Hammond) deserve the benefit of the doubt for now. Erik Karlsson is a game-changer on the blue-line and arguably (an easy argument) the most dangerous offensive defenseman in the league. Up front, Ottawa can roll out two very skillful forward lines with their top six all benefiting from an ample playing time with the man advantage.

The Buffalo Sabres finally have some nice GPP appeal, but I’m not ready to trust them in my cash games at this point. Ottawa took three of the four meetings between these teams last season, and look to be, once again, a superior hockey team at nearly every level. I’ll have plenty of exposure to a variation of the top-six forwards and Erik Karlsson tonight, and I’m sure I won’t be alone. However, it is important to work with a short memory and realize that this will almost certainly be an improved hockey product coming out of Buffalo.

Elite Plays

OTT: Erik Karlsson, Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman
BUF: None

Secondary Plays

OTT: Craig Anderson, Kyle Turris, Mark Stone, Mika Zibanejad, Cody Ceci
BUF: Evander Kane, Evander Kane, Jack Eichel, Ryan O’Reilly, Cody Franson

Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning – 07:30 PM EDT

Philadelphia Flyers					Tampa Bay Lightning
			Steve Mason					Ben Bishop
			Record					Record
			33-31					50-24
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.59	2.72	23.40%	77.10%	Team Stats	3.16	2.51	18.80%	83.70%

The Flyers failed to make it to the post season last year, and considering they did little to improve their club during the offseason, it’s not looking like that will change this season. They did bring in a new coach (Dave Hakstol) who built himself one heck of a hockey program at the University of North Dakota. Breaking down this Flyers team is somewhat simple; they’re very capable up front with two very capable scoring lines and a power-play that’s clicked at an impressive 23.4 % clip last season (third-best in the NHL), but are really lacking on the blue-line and in net. With a great power-play and a terrible penalty kill, this will likely be a fun team to target (both for and against) this season in daily fantasy hockey. Tonight’s matchup in Tampa Bay is certainly not ideal, but with Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek combining for points on the same goal 46 times last season, they’re a fine duo to target despite the tough match-up.

The Lightning finally took their play to another level last season, and entering game four of the Stanley Cup Finals, they were just two wins away from bring Lord Stanley back to Tampa. The Lightning took two of the three meetings between these two teams last season, and owned an NHL-best 32-8-1 record on home ice. They’re the clear cut favorites in this matchup, and definitely the side I’ll be targeting in cash games. While the top line, centered by the dynamic Steven Stamkos, draws most of the headlines, it was the emergence of their second scoring line (Palat, Johnson, Kucherov) that pushed the Lightning to the brink of a Cup win. All members of the top two forward’s lines are slated to see plenty of run on the power-play this season, and that bodes well for them in the opener against a Philadelphia team that owned an ugly 77.1% penalty kill last season. On the blue-line, Victor Hedman is a workhorse and looks headed for Norris Trophy consideration in the years to come. He’s joined by Anton Stralman and Jason Garrison as nice fantasy options from the Tampa Bay defense who should both also see some time with the man advantage. Valtteri Filppula may be buried on the third line at even strength, but he’s once again slotted as the center on the team’s second power-play unit and he (along with Steven Stamkos) lit up the Flyers last season; scoring a goal and adding four assists in their three meetings. Between the pipes, Ben Bishop is a top-tier fantasy option, and considering his 27-6-1 record and 2.15 GAA at Amalie Arena last season, he’s one of the best goalie options on the board tonight.

Elite Plays

PHI: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux
TAM: Steven Stamkos, Ryan Callahan, Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman, Ben Bishop

Secondary Plays

PHI: Wayne Simmonds, Matt Read, Michael Raffl, Mark Streit
TAM: Jonathan Drouin, Ondrej Palat, Valtteri Filppula, Anton Stralman, Jason Garrison

Carolina Hurricanes at Nashville Predators – 08:00 PM EDT

Carolina Hurricanes					Nashville Predators
			Cam Ward					Pekka Rinne
			Record					Record
			30-41					47-25
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.23	2.67	18.80%	84.70%	Team Stats	2.76	2.46	16.20%	80.80%

2014-15 was another disappointing season in Raleigh as the Hurricanes finished dead last in the Metropolitan Division and accumulated just 71 points. Without any notable moves in the offseason to bolster their 2015-16 roster, it would be surprising to see them take much of a step forward this season. The one notable offseason addition to this team was Kris Versteeg, who could provide the spark that reignites Eric Staal after his disappointing 54-point performance last season. With Jordan Staal finally looking healthy (for now), and centering the very speedy Nathan Gerbe on the team’s second scoring line, the Canes may finally have the luxury of some secondary scoring. On defense, Justin Faulk is a bright spot for Carolina, and after a 49-point breakout season last year, he’s locked into big minutes and should be a major contributor. James Wisniewski was brought in to stabilize the defensive core, and he’s proven to be very capable power-play producer throughout his NHL career. Carolina will reportedly throw their talented first-round pick (fifth-overall) from the 2015 draft directly into the fire as Noah Hanifin left camp with a roster spot. With that all that said, Carolina opens the season with a very fantasy unfriendly trip to the Music City. While Nashville faded a bit down the stretch last season, they’re still one of the league’s toughest defensive teams, and therefore, I won’t be sniffing any of the Hurricanes in my cash games.

Midway through the 2014-15 season, it appeared that the Predators were likely going to run away with the President’s Trophy and loom as an extremely tough out as the #1 seed in the Western Conference. However, they ultimately struggled during the second half of the season and ultimately were bounced in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs by the eventual Stanley Cup Champions. With essentially the same core group of players returning and their pond of young talent gaining an important year of playing experience, the Predators figure to be right in the mix of things in the Western Conference again this season. Pekka Rinne is a rock between the pipes and their defense anchored by Shea Weber is one of the best units in the league. This is as defensively-sound a hockey team as there is in the league, and escaping a date with Nashville with two points will prove very difficult for the opposition this season.

The Predators posted a 28-9-4 record at the Bridgestone Arena last season, and while these two teams split their two meetings last season, they’re definitely the team I’ll be targeting in this one. Upfront, Nashville is driven by two very capable scoring lines and led by a dynamic offensive line containing two snipers in Filip Forsberg and James Neal, and centered by the often-overlooked Mike Ribeiro. These teams were fairly evenly matched by Corsi standards last season, but with the Predators utilizing their distinct home-ice advantage, they should be able pull away from the Predators and start the season off with two points.

Filip Forsberg, a bright talent, picked up four goals and a pair of assists against the Blackhawks in the opening round of the playoffs.

Elite Plays

CAR: None
NSH: Filip Forsberg, James Neal, Shea Weber, Roman Josi, Pekka Rinne

Secondary Plays

CAR: Eric Staal, Jordan Staal, Justin Faulk, Kris Versteeg
NSH: ”(player-popup)Mike Ribeiro”:/players/mike-ribeiro-14267, Mike Fisher, Colin Wilson, Seth Jones

Edmonton Oilers at St. Louis Blues – 08:00 PM EDT

Edmonton Oilers					St. Louis Blues
			Ben Scrivens
			Record					Record
			24-44					51-24
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.35	3.37	17.70%	76.70%	Team Stats	2.91	2.40	22.30%	83.70%

The story line here is pretty obvious. Connor McDavid will make his long-awaited NHL debut, and there’s simply no denying that the hopes of this Edmonton franchise fall squarely on the 18-year-old’s shoulders. McDavid’s arrival solidifies this Oilers team as a very real offensive force, but after allowing an NHL worst 283 goals against last season, there are still major concerns on the defensive end entering the 2015-16 season. With Jordan Eberle lost for the first month of the season, the Oilers’ scoring depth takes a temporary hit but there’s no denying the scoring potential of Taylor Hall playing alongside Mr. McDavid. This team, especially on the road in St. Louis, is still outmatched, and therefore a dangerous team to target on sites that heavily factor +/-, but it’s highly likely that Edmonton stacks take down several GPP’s this season.

After another disappointing early exit from the playoffs last season, the Blues shook things up in the offseason and sent hometown favorite T.J. Oshie to Washington, and added some more toughness upfront by bringing Troy Brouwer. The Blues are a very deep hockey club, both offensively and defensively, and are one of the few teams in the league that routinely rolls with all four forward lines. This is great for Coach Hitchcock, but not necessarily great news for fantasy players. Vladimir Tarasenko proved to be one of the most talented young goal-scorers in the league last season, and it looks like he’ll anchor a newly-formed, very dangerous top line of Alexander Steen and Paul Stastny, that was electric at times in the preseason. Rookie Robby Fabbri looks set to take over Tarasenko’s role as the winger on the second line with Jori Lehtera and Jaden Schwartz, making him an excellent value play across the industry. The third line with David Backes and Troy Brouwer and Dmitrij Jaskin will also see plenty of playing time, and while their main role will likely be to slow down the opposition’s top line, all three guys have showed plenty of scoring potential in the past. Defensively, Kevin Shattenkirk is the backbone of on the blue line and is locked into 20+ minutes per game and is the quarterback of the team’s #1 power-play unit. He’s the top fantasy option from their defense, but both Alex Pietrangelo and Jay Bouwmeester both also see loads of playing time and are slated for time on the #2 power-play unit. In net, Jake Allen continues to push veteran Brian Elliot for playing time, and considering the strong defense in front of whoever starts, they’re both solid options when called upon.

I’m excited to see McDavid make his debut in this one (and will surely have him on a GPP team or two), but this matchup is certainly not ideal for Edmonton. St. Louis should be a cup contender this season, and I’ll be targeting them pretty heavily against the defensively-challenged Oilers. That top scoring line has looked very dangerous during the preseason, and Vladimir Tarasenko should be well worth his big-ticket asking price in the home opener. If the young Robby Fabbri can click with Schwartz and Lehtera even half as well as Tarasenko did last season, he’ll prove to be one of best values on the board early this season. With Edmonton owning an ugly 76.7% penalty kill last season, definitely don’t sleep on Kevin Shattenkirk either.  

Elite Plays

EDM: None
STL: Vladimir Tarasenko, Alexander Steen, Jaden Schwartz, Kevin Shattenkirk

Secondary Plays

EDM: Connor McDavid, Taylor Hall, Justin Schultz,
STL: Paul Stastny, Jori Lehtera, Robby Fabbri, Alex Pietrangelo, Brian Elliott, Jake Allen

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