NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, March 16th

by John Britt (jmbwngfn) Last Updated 2016-03-17 02:42:06

The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres – 07:00 PM EDT

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Montreal Canadiens					Buffalo Sabres
			Mike Condon					Robin Lehner
			Record					Record
			32-32-6					28-33-9
Team Stats	2.64	2.77	17.10%	84.00%	Team Stats	2.36	2.63	18.90%	81.20%

The Canadiens were knocked around once again last night as they fell 4-1 to Florida and won’t have much time to recover as they’ll head to Buffalo for tonight’s “clash” with the Sabres. While it’s definitely tough to trust this team in cash games right now (specially with P.K. Subban still sidelined), they did defeat the Sabres when they squared off last week. Up-front, it’s the duo of Max Pacioretty and Alex Galchenyuk that has my attention. Galchenyuk scored yet again last night and the former first-round pick is clearly loving life alongside Pacioretty. He’s now lit the lamp 12 times in the last ten games (including a two goal game against Buffalo) and is averaging 3.00 shots on goal per game during that stretch. Pacioretty extended his point streak to five games with an assist on Galchenyuk’s goal last night and owns a goal and four assists in the four prior meetings with the Sabres this season. On defense, Andrei Markov will see all the work he can handle while Subban is sidelined. He’s torched the Sabres for a goal and six assists in those four meetings and now quarterbacks the top power-play unit. Subban’s injury has also opened the door for Mark Barberio to see some playing time on the point of that top power-play unit and he’s responded with a goal and four assists in his last five games.

This will be the fifth and final meeting between these two teams this season, with both teams winning a pair of games thus far. Buffalo has been out of the playoff hunt for months, but this is still a young team with plenty left to prove to Dan Bylsma as they prepare to make bigger gains next season. Buffalo will be ecstatic to welcome their leading scorer Ryan O’Reilly back into action tonight and his return re-establishes a fine one-two punch for Coach Bylsma. O’Reilly is slated to skate alongside Evander Kane and Nicolas Deslauriers on the top line, leaving Jack Eichel to skate with fellow youngster Sam Reinhart and Zemgus Girgensons on the second line. Prior to the injury, O’Reilly had posted 49 points in 59 games and has scored a goal and added three assists in three meetings against the Canadiens. Eichel scored his 21st and 22nd goals of the season on Saturday against Carolina and the phenom has now posted five goals and two assists in his last six games. Fellow 2nd overall draft pick Sam Reinhart looks to be making enormous strides as he’s scored seven goals and added seven assists in 20 games since the All-Star break. On defense, Rasmus Ristolainen has cooled off a bit down the stretch but is still in the midst of a breakout season. The 21-year-old has posted nine goals and 28 assists in 70 games and quarterback’s Buffalo’s #1 power-play unit.

Montreal Canadiens

CF%: 52.3, CP60: 110, 5×5 Differential: -5
Elite Options: Alex Galchenyuk, Max Pacioretty, Andrei Markov
Secondary Options: Sven Andrighetto, Tomas Plekanec, Mark Barberio

Buffalo Sabres

CF%: 47.4, CP60: 104.9, 5×5 Differential: -27
Elite Options: Ryan O’Reilly, Jack Eichel, Evander Kane
Secondary Options: Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Ristolainen

Philadelphia Flyers at Chicago Blackhawks – 08:00 PM EDT

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Philadelphia Flyers					Chicago Blackhawks
			Steve Mason					Scott Darling
			Record					Record
			32-23-12					41-23-6
Team Stats	2.57	2.58	18.90%	79.60%	Team Stats	2.77	2.46	22.90%	78.50%

The Flyers jumped all over the Detroit Red Wings last night and pulled within one point of the Wings for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Philly has posted a 7-1-1 record over their last nine games and will look to pick up another signature win as they invade the Windy City to face off against a hungry Blackhawks team. Jakub Voracek looks like he’ll once again miss tonight’s game, but Dave Hakstol hasn’t had trouble finding scoring from each of his top two forward lines. Claude Giroux headlines the top line alongside Brayden Schenn and Wayne Simmonds. While they’re clearly the most dangerous options, they’ll also likely draw plenty of attention from the very defensively sound trio of Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa and Andrew Ladd. With that said, it was Michael Raffl, Sean Couturier and Sam Gagner that seemed to give Detroit the most trouble last night. Raffl scored a pair of goals against the Red Wings and has scored four goals and added three assists in his last five games. On defense, Shayne Gostisbehere continues to make a strong case for the Calder Trophy. The 22 year-old scored his 16th goal of the season last night and now owns 39 points in 50 games this season.

The Los Angeles Kings jumped all over the Chicago Blackhawks early on Monday night and never looked back; cruising to an easy 5-0 victory and handing the defending Stanley Cup champs their third straight loss. Chicago sputtered their way to a 5-7-2 record over their last 14 games and suddenly find themselves in a position to open the first round of the playoffs on the road. With that said, there’s not much panic coming for Hawks camp as they’re well aware how talented and pressure tested this squad has become. They’ll look to slow down the surging Philadelpha Flyers tonight at the United Center. Patrick Kane has been held off the scoresheet for three games in a row for the first time this season, but still looks poised to finish this season with the NHL scoring crown. He’s joined by Calder-hopeful Artemi Panarin and Artem Anisimov on the top forward line and #1 power-play unit, and while they’ll likely be bothered by Sean Couturier and company all evening, they’re simply too talented to be held in check for long. Alternatively, the acquisition of Andrew Ladd has added an offensive spark to the top line alongside Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa. While they’ll be asked to slow down Claude Giroux all evening, they’re certainly capable of counter-punching that top line with several goals of their own. Both Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith are the two blue-liners to consider. Both players have tallied 42 points this season and share the duties on the point of Chicago’s lethal #1 power-play unit. With the Flyers being the second most penalized team in the league this season, they both move up my rankings a bit tonight.

Philadelphia Flyers

CF%: 50.4, CP60: 112.7, 5×5 Differential: 5
Elite Options: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds, Shayne Gostisbehere
Secondary Options: Brayden Schenn, Michael Raffl, Mark Streit

Chicago Blackhawks

CF%: 50.7, CP60: 109.7, 5×5 Differential: -5
Elite Options: Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin, Duncan Keith
Secondary Options: Jonathan Toews, Andrew Ladd, Marian Hossa, Brent Seabrook

St. Louis Blues at Edmonton Oilers – 09:30 PM EDT

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
St. Louis Blues					Edmonton Oilers
			Jake Allen					Cam Talbot
			Record					Record
			41-21-9					27-38-7
Team Stats	2.56	2.46	21.70%	85.70%	Team Stats	2.32	2.92	16.20%	81.00%

After picking up five very impressive victories in a row to pull even with the Dallas Stars atop the Central Division, the Blues were lit up for seven goals in a very odd game against the Calgary Flames on Monday. It’s unlikely Ken Hitchcock will let the disappointing loss keep his team down for long and they’ll look to get back to their winning ways in a very favorable matchup in Edmonton against the Oilers tonight. WIth Alex Steen still out of the picture for another week or two, breaking down the St. Louis Blues up-front has to start with sniper Vladimir Tarasenko. The 24 year-old leads the team with 33 goals and 61 points in 69 games and has come alive lately with three goals and three assists in his last four games. He’s already scored two goals in two games against Edmonton this season and has clearly developed a very nice rapport with both Jaden Schwartz and Jori Lehtera, who now join him on both the top line and #1 power-play unit. Robby Rabbri actually leads this team in points since the All-Star break with five goals and eleven assists in 19 games and the highly touted rookie has now picked up at least one point in each of the last five games. He’s still very reasonably priced on most sites and is set up for continued success playing alongside veterans Paul Stastny and Troy Brouwer. Kevin Shattenkirk is once again emerging as the top option on the blue-line. He scored his 13th goal of the season on Monday and has now poured in three goals and four assists in six games this month. Alex Pietrangelo and Colton Parayko team up on the point of the second power-play unit and are in play tonight as well.

While their offensive firepower can’t be denied, the Oilers are just 6-12-2 over their last 20 games and find themselves sitting in the cellar of the Western Conference once again. While the young offensive core centered around Connor McDavid gives them an exciting future, it’s evident that Todd McLellan still has a bit of a rebuild on his hands, particularly in the defensive end. McDavid has yet to find the scoresheet in two prior meetings against the Blues this season, but he’s clearly becoming the focal point of this offense. The Phenom owns 36 points in 35 career NHL games and it looks like he’ll once again be joined by Jordan Eberle on the top forward line (and Patrick Maroon). This leaves the team’s leading scorer Taylor Hall to be reunited with Leon Draisaitl on the second line. St. Louis has been solid on defense all season and own the NHL’s second best penalty kill, so don’t get too carried away here expecting another poor performance from the Blues. On defense, Andrej Sekera runs the show on the point of the top power-play unit and is locked into 22+ minutes of ice-time per game, making him a viable (and cheap) GPP play.

St. Louis Blues

CF%: 51.5, CP60: 106.4, 5×5 Differential: 7
Elite Options: Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz, Kevin Shattenkirk
Secondary Options: Robby Fabbri, Troy Brouwer, David Backes, Alex Pietrangelo, Colton Parayko

Edmonton Oilers

CF%: 49.3, CP60: 110.7, 5×5 Differential: -33
Elite Options: Connor McDavid
Secondary Options: Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Leon Draisaitl

Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames – 10:00 PM EDT

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Winnipeg Jets					Calgary Flames
			Ondrej Pavelec					Joni Ortio
			Record					Record
			29-35-5					29-35-5
Team Stats	2.59	2.93	15.40%	78.60%	Team Stats	2.71	3.12	15.70%	74.20%

In a battle between two of the most disappointing teams in the Eastern Conference this season, the Winnipeg Jets will make the short trip from Vancouver to Calgary to face the Flames this evening. Winnipeg owns just a 4-8-2 record over their last 14 games, but have picked up back to back victories over Colorado and Vancouver. With the Flames owning the league’s worst penalty kill and allowing an NHL worst 3.12 goals against per game this season, Winnipeg needs to be on your radar tonight. Blake Wheeler is the most dangerous weapon up front and has racked up 61 points in 69 games this season. He’s scored a goal and added two assists against the Flames this season and has really helped elevate the game of his new center Mark Scheifele. Scheifele is a former 7th overall pick that is finally looking like the offensive weapon the Jets’ front office was hoping for as he’s now picked up points in eight straight games and has tallied 11 goals and eight assists in his last 13 games. Those two (along with Drew Stafford) are the top plas, but the duo of Mathieu Perreault and Alex Burmistrov have quietly supplied Winnipeg with some fairly consistent secondary scoring lately. Dustin Byfuglien was scratched from Monday’s game with a case of the flu, but it sould like Big Buff will be back on the blue-line tonight. He can rack up fantasy points in a variety of ways and is a major weapon on the point of the top power-play unit. With Calgary’s league worst PK in mind, he’s one of the top plays of the evening on defense.

The Flames have been a train-wreck down the stretch this season, but they showed their upside (particularly at home) on Monday when they nearly posted a snowman on the visiting St. Louis Blues. Calgary owns a fine 19-15-2 record at the Saddledome and ignoring Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan prowess on home-ice could be costly. Johnny Hockey dished out three assists against the Blues on Monday and has now posted a ridiculous 23 goals, 28 assists and +24 in 35 home games this season. He’s lit the lamp on three occasions in two prior meetings with Winnipeg and is a top-tier option in all formats this evening. Sean Monahan has the luxury of playing alongside Gaudreau on both the top forward line and #1 power-play and is fresh off of a two goal and assist performance of his own. He’s produced at a point-per-game clip at the Saddledome and owns nine goals and 13 assists in 20 games since the All-Star break. Michael Frolik erupted for a hat trick on seven shots on goal in Monday’s game as well and is worth a look as a GPP flier in hopes he can stay hot. While T.J. Brodie will be forced to watch from the press-box once again, the Flames still have some very appealing options on the blue-line. Mark Giordano added a goal and an assist against St. Louis and has now scored a pair of goals and added six assists in his last eight games. Meanwhile, Dougie Hamilton has come alive with a goal and seven assists in his last eight games and sees plenty of playing time alongside Giordano on the #1 power-play unit.

Winnipeg Jets

CF%: 51.7, CP60: 106.6, 5×5 Differential: -1
Elite Options: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, Dustin Byfuglien
Secondary Options: Drew Stafford, Alex Burmistrov, Toby Enstrom

Calgary Flames

CF%: 47.9, CP60: 110.8, 5×5 Differential: -13
Elite Options: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano, Dougie Hamilton
Secondary Options: Michael Frolik, Micheal Ferland, Dennis Wideman

Colorado Avalanche at Vancouver Canucks – 10:00 PM EDT

Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Colorado Avalanche					Vancouver Canucks
			Semyon Varlamov					Ryan Miller
			Record					Record
			35-31-4					27-29-12
Team Stats	2.64	2.83	19.50%	81.50%	Team Stats	2.38	2.85	17.20%	81.40%

With Minnesota picking up a point last night, the Avalanche now find themselves one point behind the Wild for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. With only 12 games remaining on their schedule, failing to pick up two points in a winnable game like tonight in Vancouver could be very damaging to Patrick Roy’s squad. However, Colorado has not been able to solve this Canucks team this season as they’ve been outscored 8-2 in their two previous meetings this season. With that said, the Canucks have allowed 3.17 goals against per game during the second half of the season and Colorado has two very dangerous forward lines to throw at them. Matt Duchene leads the team with 55 points in 70 games and has heated up lately with three goals and four assists in six games this month. He’ll be joined by Jarome Iginla on the top line, leaving Nathan MacKinnon to play alongside Blake Comeau and Mikkel Boedker on the second line. Iginla has shown no signs of slowing down as 38 year old has tallied six goals and added ten assists in 18 games since the All-Star break and is remarkably just one goal shy of the 17th 20-goal season of his illustrious career. On defense, Tyson Barrie has been held off the scoresheet in each of the last four games but is still the top option. He’s tallied 11 goals and 34 assists in 66 games and holds the reigns as the point-man on the top power-play unit.

With the Sedin twin (still very productive) but on the downswing of their impressive careers, few teams in the NHL look more ripe for an offseason overhaul of their current roster. The Canucks have posted just a 7-12-1 record over their last 20 games and averaged just 2.38 goals against per game this season. With that said, they’ve defeated this Colorado team in both prior meetings this season and the Avalanche have allowed an ugly 3.11 goals against per game since the All-Star break. The Sedin twins have combined for seven assists in two the two prior meetings against Colorado this season, and with their old partner Jannik Hensen sidelined, this bodes well for their new “third-wheel” Jake Virtanen. Virtanen was the 6th overall pick in the 2014 draft and the 19 year-old is not only dirt cheap across the industry, but has also flashed some of that offensive upside with two goals and two assists in his last six games. Sven Baertschi joins the Sedin’s on the top powerplay and is a guy who will be looking to prove what he’s made of over the last four weeks. He’s chipped in two goals and three assists in his last six games and his bargain price-tag makes him an intriguing value option. With Alex Edler officially out for the rest of the season, rookie Ben Hutton will continue to log huge minutes and runs things from the point of the Canucks’ top power-play unit. Hutton has already racked up three assists in two prior meetings with Colorado this season and owns ten assists in his last 16 games.

Colorado Avalanche

CF%: 43.9, CP60: 110.9, 5×5 Differential: -13
Elite Options: Matt Duchene, Tyson Barrie
Secondary Options: Nathan MacKinnon, Blake Comeau, Jarome Iginla

Vancouver Canucks

CF%: 47.2, CP60: 103.4, 5×5 Differential: -17
Elite Options: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin
Secondary Options: Jake Virtanen, Sven Baertschi, Ben Hutton