The GPP Scene: Year 3, Week 1

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2016-05-22 14:49:51

After two years of positive reviews, we figured it was time to start The GPP Scene series back up again. In case you are new to DFS or new to RotoGrinders, here is a little background. In this series, I will try to survey the DFS tournament landscape throughout the course of the MLB season. I am changing things up a bit this year thanks to the new tournament styles on DraftKings. Since they have some GPPs that have “3 entry max” limits, I felt like that was a great format for this article since I use three different entries for this series.

Here’s the scoop: I will enter the $3 DraftKings “Slider” GPP (3 entry max) five days a week with three different teams. The teams will be composed of the following:

Team #1 – Two-team stacks with 4 hitters from each team, finished off by whatever pitchers I like best that fit within my remaining cap.

Team #2 – A 5-man stack from one team surrounded by plays that I like at pitcher and with the other 3 hitters.

Team #3 – The cheapest plays that I like at pitcher surrounded by a team of elite hitters.

I’ll document the results of each team along with my profit and loss and return on investment as the days go by, with some final analysis for the week at the end of the article. Let’s get to the first week of results!

TUESDAY, MAY 3RD

CASH LINE CUTOFF = 107.9 POINTS

Team #1 – I mini-stacked the Texas/Toronto game at the Rogers Centre and figured runs would be aplenty with Martin Perez and Marco Estrada pitching. It started with a bang as Rougned Odor hit a solo home run to lead off the game. The only other runs in this game came on a pair of home runs from Justin Smoak — and of course I used Edwin Encarnacion as my first baseman. Therefore, my only team RBI came from a leadoff home run in the first inning. That’s not going to win any GPPs.

• FINISH: 78.75 PTS / 4865 OF 7666 FOR $0.

Team #2 – You will notice that I like picking on Justin Nicolino, a left-handed hurler that doesn’t strike anyone out. In fact, he will be featured twice in this article! It didn’t work out on this day, as he held my five-man Arizona stack in check. My +3 hitters of Troy Tulowitzki, Giancarlo Stanton, and Michael Conforto (all of whom were highly owned) also combined for just nine points. In fact, only one of my hitters scored in double figures on this squad. It was ugly. Next!

• FINISH: 84.75 PTS / 4138 OF 7666 FOR $0.

Team #3 – The cheap pitching choices here were Andrew Cashner at home against the Rockies and Nick Tropeano on the road against the Brewers. This method is going to be more challenging this year than in previous years, as DraftKings requires two pitching choices. The first two years I did this, I played on FanDuel where you only have to take one pitcher. If we are being totally honest, I expect to struggle with this approach on DK. If there ever is a day where I hit with both cheap pitchers, I sure hope the bats do well! On this day, the pitchers got me just 26 points. Several high-dollar hitting options also struggled, with Josh Donaldson, Giancarlo Stanton, and Mike Trout all held in the single digits despite 28%, 25%, and 25% ownership, respectively. The only fun performance on this team was a three double performance from Buster Posey. That was not nearly enough for this team to sniff the cash line.

• FINISH: 81.95 PTS / 4466 OF 7666 FOR $0.

THURSDAY, MAY 5TH

CASH LINE CUTOFF – 132.4 POINTS

Team #1 – I mini-stacked the Brewers against Alfredo Simon and the Red Sox against Erik Johnson. Boston did fine with seven runs, but Milwaukee was held to five and I did not have Chris Carter (who hit a home run) on my team. The pitching wasn’t great, either, as Jacob deGrom was a massive letdown for two of my three rosters here. I actually rostered the same two pitchers on Team #1 and Team #2, which is rare for me. This team was fairly close to the cash line, but it was a high scoring night, and deGrom was the biggest drag. At least 64.2% of my closest friends also felt the sting.

• FINISH: 117.05 PTS / 7035 OF 19166 FOR $0.

Team #2 – Well, this one was infuriating. I stacked up the Blue Jays here, and they scored 12 runs. All is well! Edwin Encarnacion had a monster game, and he was on my team! I used Kevin Gausman as a value pitcher, and he scored 24 points! What could possibly go wrong? Everything else. Jacob deGrom was awful against the Padres, and two of my other three hitters (J.T. Realmuto and Brandon Drury) were held scoreless. This took a promising team into the dumps, and it is rare to not cash with a team that features a stack of a squad that scores 12 runs.

• FINISH: 125.05 PTS / 5307 OF 19166 FOR $0.

Team #3 – My cheap pitching choices were Chris Devenski and Kyle Hendricks, and they combined for almost 42 points. I am going to consider that a victory most of the time. The problem comes in when the high dollar hitters all lay eggs. Paul Goldschmidt had a goose-egg, while Ryan Braun, Carlos Correa, and Ian Desmond were all held to five points or less. You are not going to cash in a GPP when four of your hitters combine for ten points, especially when they cost as much as all of those guys do. This became the lowest scoring team I had on the day, even though it had the cheapest pitchers and the best total pitching score of the three. It’s a weird game sometimes.

• FINISH: 105.80 PTS / 9667 OF 19166 FOR $0.

FRIDAY, MAY 6TH

CASH LINE CUTOFF = 117.4 POINTS

Team #1 – One of the dangers with mini-stacking two teams is being on the wrong guys from those two teams. I managed to have eight hitters from a game that featured 14 runs, but somehow this team barely hit 100 points. It wasn’t necessarily the pitchers’ faults, either, as Chris Archer and Noah Syndergaard scraped together 40 points. I just happened to be on the wrong White Sox and Twins bats. Oswaldo Arcia and Adam Eaton were the stars of this game, and my outfield trio of Austin Jackson (batting 2nd), Miguel Sano, and Danny Santana combined for just 11 points. This was the right idea, but a swing and a miss result.

• FINISH: 100.00 PTS / 4471 OF 9583 FOR $0.

Team #2 – The Rays were my first choice as a 5-man stack tonight, because I loved their matchup along with the things you could do around them. The Angels tossed Cory Rasmus to the wolves in a bullpen game, and Tampa knocked him out early with five runs in 2 1/3 innings. Unfortunately, the bats went cold the rest of the game and they finished with just those five runs. In addition to the Tampa stack, I was able to fit in both Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard on the mound (they combined for 44 points, which was “meh” by their standards) along with Buster Posey and Paul Goldschmidt as two of my additional hitters. Posey put up a goose-egg, and what could have been a top-end cash was thwarted somewhat. After Tampa’s hot start, I thought this team had a chance.

• FINISH: 127.40 PTS / 921 OF 9583 FOR $8.

Team #3 – I decided to try and stomach Michael Pineda at 1.0% ownership against the Red Sox and the more popular Drew Pomeranz against the Mets. Pineda’s outing was forgettable, but at least he registered 12 points. Pomeranz was solid as he pitched five shutout innings and earned a victory. The big bats around them also produced, as this team got double figure points from Kyle Seager, Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Votto, and Carlos Correa. Three of the four hit home runs, and that was enough to squeeze this team above the cash line. It also helped that none of my hitters ended up with zero points here. Every point matters!

• FINISH: 123.95 PTS / 1238 OF 9583 FOR $6.

SATURDAY, MAY 7TH

CASH LINE CUTOFF = 123.4 POINTS

Team #1 – The mini stacks of choice were the Orioles against Jesse Hahn and the Diamondbacks against Julio Teheran. I was able to fit two “chalk” pitchers around them with Bartolo Colon and Chris Sale. The pitchers combined for 48 points, which was solid, but the stacks performed below average. Baltimore put up five runs while Arizona put up four, and nobody had a really noteworthy performance. When all was said and done, this team finished in the middle of the pack.

• FINISH: 107.95 PTS / 2235 OF 3833 FOR $0.

Team #2 – Sometimes I like to zig when everyone else zags when it comes to the five-man stack. I knew a lot of folks would be on Bartolo Colon as a cheap pitching option, so I stacked the Padres offense and got all of them between 1-3% ownership. Of course, they had that low ownership for a reason. They only scored three runs (on a Jon Jay home run), and Bartolo Colon stole the show with his first career home run. Alas, this team obviously fell short despite a fine pitching performance from Chris Sale.

• FINISH: 96.45 PTS / 2924 OF 3833 FOR $0.

Team #3 – Dallas Keuchel checked in at his cheapest price on DraftKings in a couple of seasons, so I rolled the dice with him here despite his recent command woes. I paired him with the horrific Shelby Miller, mainly because he was cheap and was facing the Braves. Keuchel paid off his price tag with a respectable 22 point performance, but Shelby Miller continued to be terrible. The good news is that the bats were able to make up for it. This squad got home runs from Jonathan Lucroy, Chris Davis, Todd Frazier, and Ryan Braun while also getting four hits from Josh Reddick. If not for a surprising goose-egg by Giancarlo Stanton (at 37% ownership), this could have been even better.

• FINISH: 136.65 PTS / 715 OF 3833 FOR $6.

SUNDAY, MAY 8TH

CASH LINE CUTOFF = 130.15 POINTS

Team #1 – I mini-stacked both sides of the Dodgers/Blue Jays game as I figured we could see a shootout in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre with Ross Stripling and Marco Estrada on the mound. That did not happen. The game ho-hummed to a 4-2 finish, and my pitching choices of Jose Quintana and Michael Wacha were less than stellar. Keep in mind that DraftKings excludes the late afternoon games from their Sunday GPPs now, so I was unable to take Matt Harvey against the Padres. In any case, that didn’t matter for this team since it finished so poorly, anyhow.

• FINISH: 74.25 PTS / 3436 OF 3833 FOR $0.

Team #2 – The five-man stack on Mother’s Day came from the Phillies. I liked the cheap price tags for these guys going against a left-hander that can’t strike anyone out in Justin Nicolino. Nicolino pitched well for the first five innings, but the Phillies scratched together six runs by the time the game was over. This also allowed me to get three high-dollar hitters around them in Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, and Manny Machado. Those three hitters combined for 71 fantasy points, and that was the real key to success for this team. The pitchers of choice here were Patrick Corbin and Aaron Nola, and Nola in particular was disappointing. The 34 points from them were a bit of a drag, but this team was still comfortably able to cash.

(Warning: Humble brag – I employed the four-man Phillies stacks on several FanDuel rosters on Sunday in a similar fashion, while pairing them with Matt Harvey. One of those teams had similar +3 hitters to the ones above along with Jonathan Lucroy at catcher. It managed to come in 3rd place in the FanDuel Grand Slam GPP. The Phillies did just enough to hold their own at cheap price tags, and I was able to put the right pieces around them).

• FINISH: 143.85 PTS / 384 OF 3833 FOR $8.

Team #3 – Patrick Corbin and John Lamb were my value pitching choices, and they didn’t perform any better than the pitchers on the other two squads. This did allow me to spend up for my bats at every position, but there were a few disappointments in the bunch. Both Stephen Vogt and Josh Donaldson walked away with zero point performances, and Manny Machado was the only hitter to produce more than 15 fantasy points. There simply wasn’t enough thump from the big bats to make up for 33 points from a pair of pitchers. Machado’s performance alone was enough to carry this team into the top third of all rosters for the day, but it fell just short of the cash line.

• FINISH: 122.75 PTS / 1078 OF 3833 FOR $0.

Final Results: Week One

My Analysis

After going dry for the first two days and losing $18 in the process, it was nice to see things stabilize over the final few days of the week. Both Team #2 and Team #3 came away with a couple of cashes as the week wound down. It is of course wayyyyyy too early to draw any logical conclusions, so we will see how things play out in week two. Choosing two value pitchers on Team #3 is going to be a challenge, but I like the upside that you get by being able to stack up hitters at every position. I may actually use Team #3 as a vehicle to get some heavy Coors Field ownership in the coming weeks, so we will see how that goes. Team #2 made a dollar for the week, so I am going to go buy a small order of french fries at McDonalds as a reward. None of the mini-stacks for Team #1 even came close to hitting, so that team was a total loss for the week.

Normally, I will be posting this on Sundays going forward, so look for it on the weekends!