The Relief Brief: Monday, September 19th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-09-20 03:16:27

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Monday night features a ten game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights.

Tonight’s slate features a number of aces and a number of fatigued bullpen units. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Noah Syndergaard has gone six or more innings in 20 of his 28 starts this season. Thor doesn’t need a lot of explanation, but the Mets bullpen has been worked exceptionally hard over the weekend. This is a spot where an ace is pitching in front of a tired bullpen, and I expect Syndergaard to get some extended run tonight against the Braves.

Wei-Yin Chen has not started a game since mid July as he has been struggling with elbow issues. Chen made just one rehab appearance and tossed three innings, so we shouldn’t expect a long outing from him tonight against the Nationals. The Marlins ‘pen has progressively been getting worse over the second half of the season, and they almost certainly will have to put in the work tonight. In the last 30 days, the Marlins bullpen owns a poor 4.03 SIERA.

Tim Adleman now has ten starts under his belt in 2016, and has reached the six-inning mark (and no more than six innings) just three times in those ten starts. Also worth noting is that Adleman has reached 100 pitches just once in the big leagues. The Reds will be facing the world leading Chicago Cubs tonight, which is going to make things even more difficult for this pitching staff. I expect Adleman to struggle through five innings before giving way to the worst bullpen in the big leagues. Along with the worst bullpen SIERA in baseball, the Reds ‘pen also owns the lowest strikeout percentage in baseball over the last 30 days at just 17.2%. There will be blood.

Tyler Anderson has had his share of struggles recently, but the numbers are still impressive overall. A 51.6 GB% and a 3.52 xFIP through 101 innings paint an accurate picture of the kind of pitcher that Anderson has been, in spite of some recent BAPIP struggles. The Cardinals issues against lefties are well documented, and this may be a better spot for Anderson than it appears to be on the surface. The Rockies ‘pen worked hard yesterday and on top of being fatigued, they own a bottom ten SIERA this season. I expect Anderson to get some extended run if be can keep the Cards at bay tonight.

Braden Shipley has recently been acting as a long reliever behind Rubby De La Rosa as Rubby works his way back into form after a long DL stint. Shipley has not been the model of consistency this season in his eight starts. Shipley has also not thrown over 100 pitches since early August, so I don’t expect a long outing here for him tonight. This is important for us because the Diamondbacks bullpen is easily among the three worst units in baseball with a 4.29 SIERA in 2016. This spot certainly has some appeal.

Brad Peacock has made two starts this season and hasn’t pitched terribly, though the advanced stats are not encouraging. The Astros bullpen used five relievers yesterday, though no one was worked overly hard. Still, we shouldn’t yet expect Peacock to word deep into any outing, which should result in another day of hard work for the Houston bullpen. All in all, this Astros ‘pen may be a bit fatigued, but they are an elite unit and have been all season long. Peacock is an intriguing pitcher to try to pick on, but he’s unlikely to face the lineup more than two times around.

Jharel Cotton gave up 20 dongs in the minor leagues this season along with a 4.0 BB/9 and a 4.31 ERA. One thing that Cotton did well was in the strikeout department with a solid 10.28 K/9 across 130 plus minor league innings. We shouldn’t expect a long outing for Cotton tonight (six innings max), and his outing is unlikely to be clean. However, the A’s bullpen has quietly been dominant in the second half of the season. Over the last 30 days, they own a 25.1 strikeout percentage and an impressive 3.37 SIERA. The ballpark is also unfavorable for bats. This may be a sneaky spot to fade altogether.

My Favorite Bullpens To Pick On

1. Cincinnati Reds
2. Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Miami Marlins

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Orioles activated Darren O’Day from the 15-day DL. If he can stay healthy, he’ll be a nice boost for the O’s bullpen.

3. Other Notes And Insights

The Chicago Cubs bullpen owns a ridiculous 32.5 strikeout percentage over the last 30 days.

Feel free to follow me on Twitter – @collinman005

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