The Relief Brief: Tuesday, July 26th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-07-27 02:13:14

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

This article will feature three main topics.

1. Bullpen Highlights

— Bad SP combined with bad/tired bullpen
— Bad SP combined with elite bullpen
— Elite SP combined with bad/tired bullpen

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

— Call-ups & Expectations
— Other Roster Movement

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Monday night features an 11 game slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights as described above. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

James Shields has now thrown five straight quality starts while posting underwhelming peripherals including an xFIP of over five in his last three starts. Tonight, he’ll face the Cubs and their eighth ranked team wOBA vs RHP. I don’t expect Shields to go deep into this game, and the White Sox bullpen is currently ranked 25th in SIERA.

Felix Hernandez has not been the same King Felix of the past. In fact, in his last two starts, he has given up 11 combined runs. Before you decide to stack bats against him, know that the Mariners bullpen has been elite this season, posting the third best SIERA and the second best strikeout percentage in baseball this season. Even if Felix struggles against the Pirates tonight, he will be backed up by a very strong bullpen that had an off day yesterday.

Sonny Gray has started against the Texas Rangers one other time this year, in which he surrendered five earned runs through six innings of work. That may sound bad (and it is), but those types of numbers haven’t been out of the norm for Gray this season. In fact, he has surrendered four or more runs in eight starts in 2016. We shouldn’t expect a great outing from Gray here in Texas either. He’ll be backed up up by an average bullpen that has been throwing a lot of innings over the last week.

Kyle Lohse had been in line to start tonight, but Nick Martinez was recalled from AAA to make the start. Martinez has struggled mightily, especially against left handed hitters. Guess what else isn’t very good – the Rangers bullpen. Along with not being very good, the Rangers went through four different relief arms last night and four arms the night before last. In summary, we have a case of a bad starting pitcher with a bad/tired bullpen.

Patrick Corbin has failed to get out of the sixth inning in all of his previous five starts. Over those five starts, he has surrendered seven dongs and 20 walks. Lots of walks and lots of home runs isn’t a recipe for success or long outings. That’s some next level insight right there! The Brewers walk a lot and they play in the HR friendly Miller Park. If Corbin continues to exit early in ballgames, the Brewers will face the second worst bullpen (in terms of SIERA and K/BB rate) in baseball.

The theme of once above average pitchers continues with Matt Garza. Through seven starts on the season, Garza has averaged a tick over five innings per start while surrendering a 42.3% hard contact rate to righties and a 35.9% hard contact rate to lefties. The Brewers bullpen staff as a whole is ranked in the bottom ten in baseball. Will Smith has worked consecutive days and Blaine Boyer tossed 30 pitches yesterday, which may make both unavailable and fatigued at the very least. Here we have a poor starter with a poor bullpen, facing an offense with some dangerous bats in a great offensive environment.

Tyler Skaggs hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2014. In his career, he’s been a groundball pitcher who handles lefties reasonably well but has had his struggles against right-handed bats. Skaggs has pitched fairly well through the minor leagues this season, posting a high strikeout rate of over 12.5 K/9. The Kansas City Royals strike out very little against lefties, and have a few righties who hit ground ball lefties quite well. Through seven minor league starts, Skaggs has thrown just 32.1 innings (less than a five inning average per start). The Angels have a bottom five ranked bullpen in most statistical categories including SIERA and strikeout percentage.

Dillon Gee has started five games on the season. Only once has Gee exceed five innings (5.1 innings). The initial reaction to this situation might be to take some Angels bats, but the purpose of this article is to dig beyond the initial appearance of things. While the Royals bullpen is not elite, it is above average. There are two sides to this coin. On one side, Luke Hochevar, Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera all threw at least 15 pitches last night. Those are three of the centerpieces of the Royals bullpen, and they could very well be a bit fatigued. On the other side, this is a below average offensive environment and this bullpen is more than capable of putting up zeros against a mediocre offense. Gee, that’s thought provoking. (Since I became a dad last year, the level of terrible jokes and attempts at jokes has greatly increased. I sincerely apologize for subjecting you, dear reader, to such an instance. At least I recognize it…).

Cody Reed had his best start of the season his last time out, in which he lasted six innings and surrendered zero earned runs (against the Braves). In his other five starts, Reed has surrendered 23 earned runs, including nine dongs. The San Francisco Giants have been just about average against left handed pitching on the season, but they have to be in consideration tonight against a poor starter and the worst statistical bullpen in baseball.

And why not throw in one more past-his-prime pitcher in Mr. Matt Cain? Cain has now gone three straight starts without getting through four innings. One of those starts was in Colorado, and one of those starts was at Fenway, but the other start was at home against the Brewers in which he walked five men and surrendered five hits over 3.2 innings. Suffice it to say that my confidence level is not high when it comes to Matt Cain’s chances of going deep into this game. Cain has struggled against both righties and lefties this season, allowing a .401 wOBA, while also allowing eight home runs to right handed bats through just over 34 innings. The Reds aren’t a potent offense by any means, but they do have some hot bats of late. (More on this game below)

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

Last night, Andrew Miller assumed the role of closer with Aroldis Chapman being dealt to the Cubs. Dellin Betances worked the eighth inning in the set up role.

The White Sox recalled Anthony Ranaudo from AAA. While speculation was that Ranaudo would join the bullpen, it sounds like he’s in line for the start on Wednesday.

The Padres recalled lefty Keith Hessler from AAA and sent down Kevin Quackenbush. Hessler has struggled quite a bit in his brief big league career thus far.

The Nats activated Sammy Solis off of the 15-day disabled list. He’s been solid through 29 innings this season and will provide another strong arm for the Nationals bullpen.

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen has a rate 26.6% hard contact allowed on the season, which is the best in baseball.

The Giants bullpen has the 11th worst SIERA in baseball and the third lowest K/9 in baseball.

The Giants bullpen has the second most blown saves in baseball, with 18. Only the White Sox have more, with 19.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen has surrendered 69 dongs on the season, which is the most in baseball. The Texas Rangers have given up 51 dongs on the season, which is the next closest to the Reds.

Don’t hesitate to ask any questions, and keep the feedback coming!

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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