MLB GPP Plays: Friday, July 22nd
Every Tuesday and Friday I am going to give you my top tournament plays for all Daily Fantasy Baseball GPPs (guaranteed prize pool). GPPs are a general term used across the industry for your big money tournaments.
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHERS
Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals – Roark is very quietly having a great season for the Washington Nationals. The Wilmington, IL native has posted terrific ratios this year (2.82 ERA, .241 BAA), thanks to a solid strikeout rate (21%) and a fantastic ground ball rate (52.5%). Roark has also dominated right-handed batters this season, holding them to a .201 BA and .258 wOBA. This is noteworthy, considering the San Diego Padres are predominantly right-handed. The Padres have been absolutely awful against right-handed pitching in 2016. San Diego has the second-worst wOBA in Major League Baseball to go along with the second-highest strikeout rate. Look for a strong performance from Roark in this game.
Jason Hammel, Chicago Cubs – Despite having a very good season thus far, Hammel always seems to fly under the radar. The Chicago Cubs’ veteran righty is having one of his best seasons to date and I love his potential in this matchup tonight. The biggest power threats for the Milwaukee Brewers are all right-handed and Hammel has shut down righties this season, toting a .190 BAA to go with a .242 wOBA. Making this matchup even more appealing for Hammel is the Brewers’ strikeout rate. The Brew Crew are striking out at a 26.2% clip versus right-handed pitching, which is by far the most in Major League Baseball. Hammel is not only inexpensive but he has huge upside in this plus matchup.
Other Pitchers to Target – Yu Darvish, Lance McCullers, Gerrit Cole, Adam Conley, Matt Shoemaker
CATCHER
Wilson Ramos, Washington Nationals – Ramos is having a career year, hitting for both power and average, and tonight he faces Luis Perdomo, who has not looked good in his rookie season. The 23-year-old Dominican owns a 7.36 ERA and he has allowed 11 home runs in just over 69 innings pitched. Righties have tattooed Perdomo so far this season (.399 wOBA) and I think we see more of the same tonight. The Nationals catcher is currently riding a nine-game hitting streak and I think we see it hit 10 tonight.
Stephen Vogt, Oakland A’s – I like Jake Odorizzi and I rarely target hitters against him, however, he was not good in June (4.96 ERA) and he has been terrible in July (7.16 ERA, .324 BAA). Not to mention he has really struggled on the road this year (5.17 ERA). Vogt is hitting a cool .390 in the month of July and there is no reason to think he slows down tonight.
Russell Martin, Toronto Blue Jays – Martin has shown some signs of life recently, producing hits in six of his last eight games. James Paxton started off fine this season, but he has really scuffled of late, allowing 51 hits and 23 earned runs over his last 37.1 innings pitched. Martin is a cheap source of power from the catcher position and he comes with very low ownership.
Other Catchers to Target – Victor Martinez (where eligible), Welington Castillo, Stephen Vogt, Miguel Montero
FIRST BASE
Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs – Rizzo is as hot as any hitter in the game right now. The Cubs’ slugger has racked up 13 hits in his last eights contests, including six doubles and three home runs. Rizzo is also coming of a multi-homer game and I would not be surprised to see him achieve that feat again tonight. Jimmy Nelson has a long history of struggling versus left-handed batters and Rizzo annihilates right-handed pitching (.330 BA, .448 wOBA).
David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox – Ortiz is simply the best hitter in the game when he is facing a right-handed pitcher at Fenway Park (.401 BA, .547 wOBA). Kyle Gibson has been average at best this season and left-handed hitters have hit him hard (.362 wOBA). Look for Big Papi to leave the ballpark again tonight.
Other First Basemen to Target – Edwin Encarnacion, Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, Miguel Cabrera, Freddie Freeman, Carlos Santana
SECOND BASE
Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals – I am once again picking on “Gas Can of the night” nominee Luis Perdomo. The San Diego Padres’ right-handed has been lit up by lefties this season (.396 wOBA and a whopping 41.5% hard-hit rate) and Murphy has destroyed right-handed pitching all season long (.366 BA, .431 wOBA).
Ian Kinsler, Detroit Tigers – Somehow, Jacob Tuner has found his way back to the Major Leagues, this time in a Chicago White Sox uniform. The 25-year-old righty has never had much success in the Show and right-handed hitters are the biggest reason why (career .365 wOBA and 35.4% hard-hit rate VS RHB). Kinsler is firing on all cylinders with multi-hit games in five of his last seven games, including four home runs. Look for Kinsler to have another multi-hit performance this evening.
Other Second Basemen to Target – Jason Kipnis, Dustin Pedroia, Brian Dozier, Logan Forsythe, Devon Travis
THIRD BASE
Jake Lamb, Arizona Diamondbacks – Lamb has been a beast against right-handed pitching this season (.442 wOBA), and you have to love his potential against Dan Straily and that awful Cincinnati Reds bullpen. Straily is not a bad pitcher, but he is prone to the long-ball, especially when he is pitching at the Great American Smallpark. The Reds’ bullpen is not only terrible, but they are entirely right-handed outside of their closer, giving Lamb the splits in his favor throughout the game.
Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays – One of baseball’s most notorious lefty-killers is certainly in play again tonight. Right-handed batters have enjoyed hitting off of Sean Manaea this season. The Oakland A’s rookie lefty has allowed a .350 wOBA along with nine home runs (1.45 HR/9) to righties in 2016. With this game being on the West Coast in a pitcher-friendly environment, we should see Longoria fly under the radar in GPPs.
Other Third Basemen to Target – Josh Donaldson, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Travis Shaw, Nick Castellanos
SHORTSTOP
Eduardo Nunez, Minnesota Twins – Eduardo Rodriguez is another pitcher I will be attacking tonight. The Boston Red Sox young southpaw has really had a tough time this season, producing an ERA of 7.18 and allowing 10 home runs in just over 36 innings pitched. Hitters from the right side of the plate are abusing Rodriguez this year (.381 wOBA and a 34.7% hard-hit rate) and I think we see more of the same tonight. Nunez has multi-hit/run/SB upside in this one.
Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians – The Indians’ talented young shortstop can do it all offensively, and has jack-and-a-bag upside in this game. Lindor has generated hits in 10 of his last 12 games and he should be able to rip off a couple more hits tonight against the inexperienced Dylan Bundy.
Danny Espinosa and Trea Turner, Washington Nationals – Have I mentioned I want to attack Luis Perdomo tonight? Despite hitting lower in the order, both Danny Espinosa and Trea Turner have big upside tonight at inexpensive prices.
Other Shortstops to Target – Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Story, Troy Tulowitzki
OUTFIELDERS
Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies – Although Julio Teheran has been outstanding this season, I do not see fantasy owners avoiding the Colorado Rockies bats. However, just because they will be popular this does not mean we should fade them. I think you’ll want to have at least some exposure to one or both of these Rockies outfielders tonight. Let us not forget that Teheran has also historically struggled badly against hitters from the left side of the plate. CarGo has double-dong potential and Blackmon has a chance at the jack-and-a-bag combo meal.
Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals – Harper has to be the top outfield option on the board outside of Coors Field. With Luis Perdomo allowing an insane .396 wOBA and a whopping 41.5% hard-hit rate to lefties, Harper could easily post a monster game this evening.
Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins – Sano versus a struggling pitcher (Eduardo Rodriguez, with a 7.18 ERA and 10 home runs allowed in just over 36 innings pitched) that does not strike batters out? Sign me up! Look for Sano to bust out of his slump with a big game tonight.
Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds – Archie Bradley continues to be inconsistent at the Major League level. The talented young righty has a great arm, but lefties continue to give him fits (.371 wOBA). I am not in love with the Reds bats tonight, but I do like Bruce in this matchup and we know he has multi-homer upside.
Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins – Yelich not only has an elite contact rate against right-handed pitching, but he has also been smoking hot at the dish recently. The Marlins’ left fielder has registered hits in 10 of his last 11 games, including three doubles and three home runs. Yelich is not cheap, but I expect him to produce again tonight and we know he will not be popular in large field tournaments.
Other Outfielders to Target – Yoenis Cespedes, Giancarlo Stanton, Adam Duvall, Josh Reddick, Justin Upton, Cameron Maybin, Ben Revere