MLB GPP Plays: Tuesday, August 2nd
Every Tuesday and Friday I am going to give you my top tournament plays for all Daily Fantasy Baseball GPPs (guaranteed prize pool). GPPs are a general term used across the industry for your big money tournaments.
GPPs are very different from your cash games and you use a different strategy with them. In our GPPs we are not interested in safe plays, since GPPs are all about UPSIDE. We want players who can explode, as all-or-nothing type players can become GPP gold, and your value players are just as important as your star players. You need your players to have huge nights in order to take down these big tournaments.
My goal is to provide players who will be under-owned and have that big game upside you are looking for. I will also try to find as much value as I possibly can. Now, let’s get to the MLB GPP plays!
STARTING PITCHERS
Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants – Bumgarner continues to dominate Major League hitters, posting a 2.09 ERA, a .203 BAA, and a career best 28.4% strikeout rate. The Giants lefty has been dealing over his last five starts, producing 44 punch-outs, while allowing just seven earned runs in 36 innings pitched. The Philadelphia Phillies have been the worst team in all of baseball against left-handed pitching this season (yes, that even includes the Atlanta Braves). The Phillies rank dead last in both wOBA and wRC+ versus southpaws, and they are also striking out at an above average rate (22.9%). Bumgarner has been lights out all season long and I think we see another dominant performance from him this evening. Due to his expensive salary, Mad-Bum could fly under the radar in large field tournaments.
Lance McCullers, Houston Astros – Lance McCullers has been insanely good of late, racking up 44 strikeouts in his last 30.1 innings pitched, while surrendering just seven earned runs. The Astros’ young right-hander has been outstanding at home in 2016 (2.28 ERA, .273 BA with 74 Ks in 55.1 IP) and he has double-digit strikeout potential each and every time he takes the mound. The Toronto Blue Jays have a very potent offense, but they do strikeout out at an elevated rate against right-handed pitching. Despite the tough match-up, McCullers has the potential to be the highest scoring pitcher on the night, and I doubt he is very popular in tournament play.
Luis Perdomo, San Diego Padres – Don’t be fooled by his numbers, Luis Perdomo has a great arm and he is going to be a very good pitcher at the Major League level. The 23-year-old Dominican has posted solid strikeouts rates throughout the Minor Leagues and he owns a terrific groundball rate (57.6%). Perdomo has yet to put it all together, but he has shown signs of his massive outside. The Milwaukee Brewers are a below average team versus right-handed pitching, striking out over 26% of the time, which is the most in Major League Baseball. Considering his salary across the industry and his opponent, Perdomo makes a terrific high upside value play in GPPs.
Other Pitchers to Target – Jose Fernandez, Carlos Carrasco, David Price, Matt Shoemaker, Yu Darvish
CATCHER
Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants – Posey is swinging a hot stick, with four multi-hit performances in his last eight contests. The Philadelphia Phillies’ rookie right-hander Zach Eflin does not strike many hitters out, which leads to a lot of contact, and hard contact (32.8%) at that. The Giants’ all-star catcher has been raking since the beginning of June and I expect him to stay hot in this one.
Yasmani Grandal, Los Angeles Dodgers – Yasmani Grandal’s bat is finally awake. It took all season, but the Dodgers backstop is hitting a cool .324 in the month of July with eight home runs. Facing Jonathan Gray is never an easy task, but this is Coors Field and Grandal is a much better hitter from the left side of the plate.
Other Catchers to Target – Victor Martinez (where eligible), Wilson Ramos, Nick Hundley, Evan Gattis, Jonathan Lucroy
FIRST BASE
Adrian Gonzalez, Los Angeles Dodgers – Adrian Gonzalez has a long history of mashing right-handed pitching and this is the best hitting environment in the world. With most fantasy owners in love with Jonathan Gray’s talent, A-Gon could fly under the radar tonight.
Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants – Zach Eflin was blasted in his last start (9 H, 7 ER, 4 BB in 5 IP) and he has been very hittable all season long. Belt gets a great park boost, and despite the plus matchup I do not expect him to be very popular in GPPs.
Other First Basemen to Target – Miguel Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, Jose Abreu, Matt Adams
SECOND BASE
Ian Kinsler, Detroit Tigers – We have several arms to attack tonight and James Shields is definitely one of them. Shields has been better of late, but he is not striking out a lot of batters and the walks continue to pile up. Right-handed hitters have pounded the veteran right-hander this season (.353 wOBA) and I think we see more of the same tonight. Look for another big game from Detroit Tigers’ offensive catalyst.
Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers – Dylan Bundy is another arm that you can both roster and pick on tonight. The kid is extremely talented with big strikeout potential. However, he has scuffled a bit of late, allowing five long-balls in his last three starts. Look for Odor to take the youngster deep tonight.
Other Second Basemen to Target – Jose Altuve, Jason Kipnis, DJ LeMahieu, Chase Utley, Jurickson Profar, Dee Gordon
THIRD BASE
Todd Frazier, Chicago White Sox – Anibal Sanchez is not having a very good season, toting a 6.56 ERA and a .303 BAA. The 32-year-old has given up four or more earned runs in 11 of his 16 starts this year and hitters from the right side of the plate are having their way with him (.392 wOBA). The Toddfather has multi-homer upside in this game.
Anthony Rendon, Washington Nationals – Rendon is in a groove at the plate, registering 12 hits in his last nine games, including four doubles and two long-balls. Robbie Ray has a great strikeout rate, but he has also struggled mightily against right-handed hitters in 2016 (.348 wOBA, 37.1% hard-hit rate). Rendon is best unleashed versus southpaws (career .365 wOBA) and I love his potential in this matchup.
Other Third Basemen to Target – Nolan Arenado, Justin Turner, Eduardo Nunez, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado, Jake Lamb
SHORTSTOP
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox – The Boston Red Sox stud shortstop has become one of the best hitters in the game. Bogaerts has compiled hits in 13 of his last 14 games and I think we see a multi-hit game tonight. Wade LeBlanc has pitched quite well this season, but there is a reason he has bounced around the league so much, he is not a very good pitcher and we can attack him with right-handed hitters. With the Seattle Mariners’ lefty pitching decent and this game being played on the West Coast, I think we see a low ownership on Bogaerts this evening.
Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians – Kyle Gibson is an average pitcher and perhaps even an above average pitcher, and I rarely target hitters against him. However, Lindor and the Cleveland Indians offense rakes against right-handed pitching and I cannot see Gibson slowing them down tonight. Hitting in the middle of this potent Indians lineup, Lindor has multi-hit/run/RBI/SB upside.
Other Shortstops to Target – Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Brandon Crawford, Eduardo Nunez (where eligible), Trevor Story, Tim Anderson
OUTFIELDERS
Colorado Rockies Outfield – Yes, Brandon McCarthy has been very good since coming off the DL, but his numbers indicate regression, especially against lefties (44.4% hard-hit rate). All three of Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl have huge upside in this matchup.
Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh Pirates – Mike Foltynewicz has continued to struggle against lefties in 2016. The Atlanta Braves’ young right-hander has allowed a .366 wOBA to go along with a 32.5% hard-hit rate. Gregory Polanco has jack-and-a-bag upside in this prime matchup.
George Springer, Houston Astros – You never know what you are going to get with a knuckleballer, but R.A. Dickey has been hit hard recently, allowing 17 earned runs (including six home runs) in his last three outings. Springer can do it all offensively and I think we see a big game from him this evening.
Matt Holliday and Stephen Piscotty, St. Louis Cardinals – I rarely go out of my way to pick on Dan Straily, but he is fly-ball pitcher, who is backed up by an awful bullpen, and pitching in a very hitter-friendly environment. Both Holiday and Piscotty have double-dong potential in this game.
Other Outfielders to Target – Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Josh Reddick, Denard Span, Ian Desmond, Cameron Maybin, Christian Yelich, Nomar Mazara