MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 15th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry
Before we get into the slate, I wanted to quickly recap the amazing week that I had. While I certainly missed daily fantasy baseball during the All-Star break, I had plenty to keep me entertained. It started with the trip to Nashville for the third annual RotoGrinders boating excursion. It’s always great going to Nashville to see the RotoGrinders’ crew and I can’t say thanks enough for them hosting my wife and I. I couldn’t ask for a better group of individuals to work with and am always extremely proud to be a member of Team RG. Other than a banana boat accident that we are still recovering from (those things aren’t as fun as they look), it couldn’t have been better.

From Nashville, we flew to San Diego for the All-Star Game. I was lucky enough to win a VIP Experience from DraftKings and as they always do, they really took care of us. From tickets to all of the events, the meet and greet with potential Hall of Famer Fred McGriff, and a seemingly endless supply of food and drinks, it was the trip of a lifetime. The All-Star Game itself was incredible, but nothing could top watching Giancarlo Stanton hit bomb after bomb after bomb at the Home Run Derby. I highly encourage everyone to play in these events that offer trips, because the sites always provide a truly incredible experience.
Now, let’s get into the slate! Oh, and one other note, I am going to be incorporating the Red/Orange/Yellow/Green grades from Kevin Roth’s weather report into the Stackability rankings.
GREEN = Stack ‘em up wherever possible, cash games and GPPs
YELLOW = Very viable stack option, especially in GPPs
ORANGE = Not a great stack option, maybe in a large tournament
RED = Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs
Texas at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET
| Texas | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
| Martin Perez | | Kyle Hendricks | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHC -179 | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.249 | 2 | 21.5% | 11.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.322 | 15 | 20.2% | 7.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.339 | 12 | 10.2% | 8.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.253 | 10 | 23.8% | 5.3% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Martin Perez | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $6,500 | Salary: | ||||||||
| FPPG: | 23.6 | FPPG: | ||||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 23.6 | Pitcher Rank: | 30 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 5 | 94.4 | 5.67 | 5.52 | 6.9% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 49.5% | 25.7% | 34.2% |
| 2016 | 18 | 96.1 | 5.35 | 3.85 | 11.3% | 10.0% | 6.9% | 53.8% | 25.6% | 32.3% |
| 2015 | 14 | 86.8 | 4.06 | 4.46 | 14.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 59.9% | 22.1% | 22.7% |
We have a single day game on the schedule today and of the two big sites, only FanDuel is offering contests that include this game. Perez will be on the mound for the Rangers and as I’ve hinted a number of times this season, I’m expecting regression to hit him hard after the All-Star break. His BABIP is far too low for a pitcher that induces that high of a ground ball rate. If you look at his chart above, you will see that his ERA is a full run and a half lower than his SIERA. Eventually, hits are going to start finding holes and we have even started to see that in his last few starts. With such a low strikeout rate, he should be avoided in all league formats.
| Kyle Hendricks | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $8,500 | Salary: | ||||||||
| FPPG: | 30.8 | FPPG: | ||||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 77.2 | Pitcher Rank: | 5 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 5 | 109.8 | 4.37 | 1.78 | 22.0% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 39.3% | 43.8% | 24.4% |
| 2016 | 16 | 95.5 | 3.92 | 2.55 | 21.6% | 6.8% | 9.1% | 51.1% | 31.3% | 23.8% |
| 2015 | 32 | 87.3 | 3.37 | 3.95 | 22.6% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 51.3% | 26.9% | 25.8% |
Hendricks has a similar problem to Martin Perez – regression could be on the horizon. The difference between the two is that Hendricks has a fairly low SIERA that is accompanied by an above-average strikeout rate. He checks into today’s game as one of the largest favorites on the board, which likely has more to do with the opposing pitcher and the offense behind him. Hendricks could certainly pick up a win here, but his matchup against the Rangers isn’t one to write home about. On the season, Texas is ranked above the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching.
Batter Grind Down
Texas
The Rangers are an offense that can score runs at any time thanks to their ability to hit right-handed pitching. They have a low strikeout rate as a team and average the seventh most runs per game in baseball. While today’s matchup against Kyle Hendricks may not be the worst on the board, it’s potentially in the top five when talking about bad matchups. Texas has the third lowest implied run projection and Hendricks has held both left and right-handed under a .325 wOBA in the last two seasons.
- Rangers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.320 (13 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.167 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.4% (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.92 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.54 (28 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shin-Soo Choo | LEFT | 0.383 | 0.205 | 0.383 | OF | $3,700 | ||
| 2 | Ian Desmond | RIGHT | 0.314 | 0.163 | 0.388 | OF | $4,200 | ||
| 3 | Rougned Odor | LEFT | 0.329 | 0.217 | 0.358 | 2B | $3,500 | ||
| 4 | Adrian Beltre | RIGHT | 0.309 | 0.137 | 0.339 | 3B | $3,500 | ||
| 5 | Prince Fielder | LEFT | 0.357 | 0.155 | 0.329 | 1B | $2,900 | ||
| 6 | Nomar Mazara | LEFT | 0.353 | 0.174 | 0.274 | OF | $2,900 | ||
| 7 | Elvis Andrus | RIGHT | 0.285 | 0.087 | 0.387 | SS | $3,000 | ||
| 8 | Robinson Chirinos | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.209 | 0.317 | C | $2,600 | ||
| 9 | Martin Perez | LEFT | 0.000 | 0.000 | P | $6,500 | |||
| Team Averages | — | 0.294 | 0.150 | 0.347 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Rougned Odor
Stackability – RED
Chicago Cubs
We go from one of the lowest implied team totals on the schedule to one of the highest with the Cubs. They have an implied projection of 4.46 runs, which is the sixth highest on the schedule. Chicago’s offense has been firing on all cylinders for most of the season and that should continue the rest of the way. The right-handed hitters have the edge in today’s matchup against Martin Perez. Over the last two years, he has allowed a .339 wOBA and 12 home runs to batters from the right side of the plate.
- Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.355 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.199 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.7% (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.23 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.46 (6 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Zobrist | SWITCH | 0.385 | 0.176 | 0.327 | 2B | $3,100 | ||
| 2 | Kris Bryant | RIGHT | 0.386 | 0.274 | 0.572 | 3B | $3,700 | ||
| 3 | Anthony Rizzo | LEFT | 0.374 | 0.204 | 0.487 | 1B | $4,600 | ||
| 4 | Willson Contreras | RIGHT | 0.373 | 0.179 | 0.357 | C | $3,100 | ||
| 5 | Addison Russell | RIGHT | 0.262 | 0.161 | 0.329 | SS | $3,200 | ||
| 6 | Jason Heyward | LEFT | 0.311 | 0.100 | 0.329 | OF | $2,500 | ||
| 7 | Javier Baez | RIGHT | 0.454 | 0.250 | 0.397 | SS | $3,300 | ||
| 8 | Albert Almora | RIGHT | 0.394 | 0.357 | 0.397 | OF | $2,000 | ||
| 9 | Kyle Hendricks | RIGHT | 0.097 | 0.045 | 0.146 | P | $8,500 | ||
| Team Averages | — | 0.337 | 0.194 | 0.371 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell
Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez
Stackability – GREEN
Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET
| Boston | NY Yankees | ||||||||
| Steven Wright | | Michael Pineda | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYY -109 | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.281 | 7 | 17.3% | 9.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.328 | 14 | 24.8% | 5.6% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.304 | 12 | 19.6% | 8.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.333 | 22 | 24.9% | 3.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Steven Wright | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $9,200 | Salary: | $9,700 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 37.8 | FPPG: | 19.8 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 56.9 | Pitcher Rank: | 18 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 5 | 103.8 | 4.41 | 4.22 | 16.8% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 54.4% | 30.1% | 32.4% |
| 2016 | 17 | 107.6 | 4.49 | 2.68 | 19.8% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 47.6% | 32.6% | 28.0% |
| 2015 | 9 | 130.9 | 4.60 | 4.09 | 16.8% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 43.2% | 43.2% | 33.9% |
Wright is one of those pitchers that I always have to give a manual boost to in my MLB model. He doesn’t do anything particularly well, but he always seems to give his team a chance to win. He also has the ability to pitch very deep into games, because a knuckleball pitcher doesn’t exert nearly as much energy as your typical major league pitcher. The issue that I have with Wright tonight is that he is a sizable underdog on the road. The Yankees currently have the highest implied run total on the schedule, which typically isn’t good news for the opposing pitcher.
| Michael Pineda | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $7,600 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 28.8 | FPPG: | 15.1 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 74.7 | Pitcher Rank: | 7 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 5 | 98.2 | 2.72 | 3.68 | 35.6% | 7.6% | 13.2% | 45.5% | 33.3% | 26.9% |
| 2016 | 17 | 97.0 | 3.38 | 5.38 | 27.2% | 6.3% | 13.9% | 43.9% | 33.2% | 29.7% |
| 2015 | 27 | 94.4 | 3.09 | 4.37 | 23.4% | 3.1% | 11.9% | 48.2% | 29.9% | 30.1% |
Unlike the pitchers in the Rangers/Cubs game, I have been saying that Pineda should actually be pitching better than his numbers indicate. His peripheral statistics have looked good for most of the season and we are finally starting to see those results come to fruition. Over the last month of play, Pineda has a 2.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate over 35%. Those numbers are right up there with the best pitchers in all of baseball. His true test will come tonight against the Red Sox, who just so happen to have the best offense in the majors. I may give Pineda a look in GPPs, but slightly prefer Chris Archer or Jaime Garcia at similar price points.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
The Red Sox may be underdogs tonight, but it wouldn’t be right if they didn’t have one of the highest run projections on the board. They have the best offense in baseball and have constantly made it tough on opposing pitchers, whether it’s an ace or a back-end rotation guy. Even with his recent success, Michael Pineda has still allowed a .328+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Many will be scared off by Pineda’s recent numbers, but you can still target the Red Sox with confidence.
- Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.358 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.187 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 17.9% (3 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.63 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.44 (7 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mookie Betts | RIGHT | 0.361 | 0.203 | 0.422 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $5,100 |
| 2 | Dustin Pedroia | RIGHT | 0.350 | 0.142 | 0.324 | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $3,900 |
| 3 | Xander Bogaerts | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.116 | 0.301 | SS | $3,400 | SS | $4,300 |
| 4 | David Ortiz | LEFT | 0.441 | 0.350 | 0.441 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $5,300 |
| 5 | Hanley Ramirez | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.144 | 0.522 | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $4,200 |
| 6 | Jackie Bradley | LEFT | 0.381 | 0.283 | 0.316 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,300 |
| 7 | Travis Shaw | LEFT | 0.341 | 0.187 | 0.357 | 3B | $2,700 | 1B/3B | $3,600 |
| 8 | Brock Holt | LEFT | 0.312 | 0.115 | 0.466 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,100 |
| 9 | Sandy Leon | SWITCH | 0.316 | 0.088 | 0.479 | C | $2,900 | C | $3,300 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.351 | 0.181 | 0.403 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – David Ortiz
Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley
Stackability – YELLOW
NY Yankees
The Yankees have been a disappointment this season and it will be interesting to see if they start selling (which is very un-Yankee like). While they are ranked 22nd in team wOBA against right-handed pitching, they have the third highest implied team total on the board tonight. They draw a decent matchup against Steven Wright, who will have a tough time maintaining his current ERA the rest of the season.
- Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.152 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.8% (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.22 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.56 (3 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.331 | 0.141 | 0.270 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,800 |
| 2 | Jacoby Ellsbury | LEFT | 0.313 | 0.107 | 0.352 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $3,900 |
| 3 | Carlos Beltran | SWITCH | 0.354 | 0.208 | 0.380 | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,200 |
| 4 | Mark Teixeira | SWITCH | 0.350 | 0.276 | 0.309 | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,200 |
| 5 | Brian McCann | LEFT | 0.335 | 0.213 | 0.496 | C | $3,100 | C | $4,900 |
| 6 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.290 | 0.127 | 0.305 | 2B | $2,400 | 2B | $3,200 |
| 7 | Didi Gregorius | LEFT | 0.318 | 0.149 | 0.468 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $4,700 |
| 8 | Chase Headley | SWITCH | 0.306 | 0.115 | 0.382 | 3B | $2,600 | 3B | $3,900 |
| 9 | Rob Refsnyder | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.159 | 0.292 | 1B | $2,400 | 1B/OF | $3,400 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.325 | 0.166 | 0.362 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Brian McCann
Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Mark Teixeira
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
NY Mets at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET
| NY Mets | Philadelphia | ||||||||
| Bartolo Colon | | Jeremy Hellickson | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM -123 | 9.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.322 | 21 | 15.5% | 3.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.344 | 16 | 17.5% | 9.1% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.305 | 17 | 17.5% | 2.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.319 | 22 | 21.8% | 4.6% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Bartolo Colon | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $6,200 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 25.9 | FPPG: | 13.1 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 59.3 | Pitcher Rank: | 17 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 5 | 72.8 | 4.06 | 3.86 | 16.2% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 50.0% | 26.2% | 39.3% |
| 2016 | 17 | 85.6 | 4.38 | 3.28 | 16.1% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 43.4% | 31.3% | 37.6% |
| 2015 | 31 | 87.3 | 4.02 | 4.16 | 16.7% | 2.9% | 6.4% | 42.3% | 36.9% | 29.0% |
Colon was a late addition to the All-Star Game, but he didn’t end up pitching in the game. He will get the nod for the Mets tonight against the Phillies. While he has a well below-average strikeout rate, he continues to pitch well this season. He currently owns a 3.28 ERA with a walk rate of only 4.2%. He doesn’t have the greatest velocity at this stage in his career, but he knows how to hit his spots. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Phillies, who are ranked 25th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. There are some better values available tonight, but Colon isn’t the worst play at his price.
| Jeremy Hellickson | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $7,000 | Salary: | $8,400 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 29.4 | FPPG: | 15.4 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 54.5 | Pitcher Rank: | 21 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 5 | 94.6 | 4.39 | 2.90 | 17.5% | 5.6% | 9.5% | 43.6% | 33.0% | 20.0% |
| 2016 | 18 | 92.9 | 4.03 | 3.92 | 21.3% | 6.2% | 11.5% | 42.4% | 33.4% | 28.4% |
| 2015 | 27 | 91.8 | 4.14 | 4.62 | 19.0% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 42.4% | 36.5% | 34.3% |
Hellickson is having a nice bounce-back season for the Phillies. In 18 starts, he has a 4.03 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.3%. He comes into tonight’s game as a small underdog against the Mets. While I’m generally not too concerned about using pitchers that are underdogs, I don’t love targeting ones in games that are expected to be high scoring. The over/under for this one is set at 9.0 runs, which suggests scoring could come in bunches. There are better pitchers to target tonight than Hellickson.
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
The Mets are still missing a few pieces offensively, but Jose Reyes has been a nice addition at the top of their lineup. As strange as it seems, New York has the second highest implied run projection tonight. They draw a decent matchup against Jeremy Hellickson, who has allowed a .344 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. He has also given up 38 home runs in his last 45 starts.
- Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.310 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.177 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.7% (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.81 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.64 (2 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jose Reyes | SWITCH | 0.298 | 0.104 | 0.414 | 3B | $2,800 | SS | $3,500 |
| 2 | Curtis Granderson | LEFT | 0.371 | 0.226 | 0.481 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,600 |
| 3 | Neil Walker | SWITCH | 0.327 | 0.170 | 0.252 | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $3,700 |
| 4 | Yoenis Cespedes | RIGHT | 0.379 | 0.264 | 0.470 | OF | $4,000 | OF | $5,200 |
| 5 | James Loney | LEFT | 0.319 | 0.103 | 0.310 | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $3,400 |
| 6 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.318 | 0.176 | 0.343 | SS | $2,500 | SS | $4,000 |
| 7 | Brandon Nimmo | LEFT | 0.289 | 0.075 | 0.309 | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,000 |
| 8 | Travis D’Arnaud | RIGHT | 0.321 | 0.162 | 0.396 | C | $2,100 | C | $3,300 |
| 9 | Bartolo Colon | RIGHT | 0.144 | 0.077 | 0.000 | P | $7,400 | P | $6,200 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.307 | 0.151 | 0.331 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Jose Reyes, Curtis Granderson
Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Yoenies Cespedes, James Loney
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Philadelphia
The Phillies’ offense really started gaining momentum before the All-Star break. We will see if they can keep it going in the second half of the season. Their matchup against Bartolo Colon isn’t great, but it’s not like he’s unhittable. If Colon’s command is off even a little, a 90 MPH fastball down the middle can be hit by anyone in the majors. The Phillies are interesting GPP plays, but I will be looking elsewhere in cash games.
- Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.303 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.162 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.0% (17 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.64 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.36 (12 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Odubel Herrera | LEFT | 0.355 | 0.145 | 0.321 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,100 |
| 2 | Peter Bourjos | RIGHT | 0.293 | 0.156 | 0.436 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,400 |
| 3 | Cody Asche | LEFT | 0.312 | 0.178 | 0.328 | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,500 |
| 4 | Maikel Franco | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.216 | 0.510 | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $4,400 |
| 5 | Tommy Joseph | RIGHT | 0.278 | 0.225 | 0.405 | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,600 |
| 6 | Cameron Rupp | RIGHT | 0.297 | 0.152 | 0.450 | C | $2,900 | C | $3,700 |
| 7 | Cesar Hernandez | SWITCH | 0.301 | 0.088 | 0.426 | 2B | $2,500 | 2B | $3,600 |
| 8 | Freddy Galvis | SWITCH | 0.294 | 0.126 | 0.313 | SS | $2,500 | SS | $3,500 |
| 9 | Jeremy Hellickson | RIGHT | 0.198 | 0.000 | 0.000 | P | $7,000 | P | $8,400 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.298 | 0.143 | 0.354 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Peter Bourjos, Cody Asche, Maikel Franco
Stackability – ORANGE
Pittsburgh at Washington – 7:05 PM ET
| Pittsburgh | Washington | ||||||||
| Francisco Liriano | | Stephen Strasburg | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WAS -195 | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.285 | 6 | 24.9% | 9.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 12 | 31.1% | 7.6% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.311 | 23 | 24.2% | 11.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.294 | 13 | 29.8% | 4.5% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Francisco Liriano | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | $4,900 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 24.6 | FPPG: | 11.4 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 57.7 | Pitcher Rank: | 19 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 6 | 97.0 | 5.25 | 4.94 | 18.9% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 46.3% | 33.7% | 27.1% |
| 2016 | 17 | 96.2 | 5.01 | 5.15 | 20.5% | 13.5% | 10.3% | 49.6% | 31.7% | 33.9% |
| 2015 | 31 | 96.2 | 3.38 | 3.38 | 26.5% | 9.1% | 14.3% | 51.2% | 26.3% | 24.3% |
Liriano is hoping to fix whatever plagued him in the first half of the season. His 17 starts so far have been a far cry from what we saw him do a year ago. He currently has a 5.01 SIERA with a walk rate of 13.5%. Until he flashes some form (which may never happen), he should continue to be avoided in all league formats. A matchup against the Nationals only makes that decision even easier, as they are ranked second in team wOBA and first in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season.
| Stephen Strasburg | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $11,400 | Salary: | $12,000 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 47.9 | FPPG: | 24.9 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 98.0 | Pitcher Rank: | 1 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 3 | 107.3 | 3.76 | 0.87 | 29.0% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 40.0% | 37.8% | 24.4% |
| 2016 | 16 | 104.0 | 3.10 | 2.62 | 31.4% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 44.4% | 35.6% | 25.1% |
| 2015 | 23 | 88.8 | 2.76 | 3.46 | 29.6% | 5.0% | 11.2% | 42.2% | 34.3% | 28.9% |
Strasburg has been terrific this season, posting a 3.10 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31.4%. His walk rate has been a little high this season, but at 7.4% it’s nothing more than a blip on the radar. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Pirates, whose lineup primarily consists of right-handed hitters. A platoon advantage is never a bad thing for a pitcher to have. Strasburg is right there with Madison Bumgarner as the top overall pitching option in tonight’s slate.
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
The Pirates have been slumping over the last month of play and that will likely continue tonight. They come into the game with the lowest implied total at only 3.20 runs. They draw a difficult matchup against Stephen Strasburg, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA in the last two seasons.
- Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.321 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.146 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.8% (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.75 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.20 (30 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | John Jaso | LEFT | 0.347 | 0.147 | 0.288 | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $3,200 |
| 2 | Gregory Polanco | LEFT | 0.342 | 0.165 | 0.277 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,500 |
| 3 | Starling Marte | RIGHT | 0.354 | 0.157 | 0.284 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $5,100 |
| 4 | Andrew McCutchen | RIGHT | 0.358 | 0.192 | 0.341 | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,900 |
| 5 | Jung-Ho Kang | RIGHT | 0.364 | 0.201 | 0.282 | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $4,000 |
| 6 | Josh Harrison | RIGHT | 0.294 | 0.101 | 0.233 | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $3,400 |
| 7 | Jordy Mercer | RIGHT | 0.273 | 0.076 | 0.340 | SS | $2,800 | SS | $3,600 |
| 8 | Eric Fryer | RIGHT | 0.389 | 0.100 | 0.375 | C | $2,300 | C | $2,600 |
| 9 | Francisco Liriano | LEFT | 0.260 | 0.082 | 0.220 | P | $8,000 | P | $4,900 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.331 | 0.136 | 0.293 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – NONE
Stackability – RED
Washington
The Nationals have a better matchup than their implied Vegas total would suggest. They have been one of the best offenses against left-handed pitching in baseball this season and statistically speaking, they have one of the best matchups on the board. Francisco Liriano has struggled with his command this year and he has allowed a .359 wOBA to right-handed hitters.
- Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.352 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.219 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 19.5% (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.69 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.30 (13 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trea Turner | RIGHT | 0.384 | 0.071 | 0.000 | SS | $2,300 | 2B/SS | $3,400 |
| 2 | Jayson Werth | RIGHT | 0.403 | 0.278 | 0.355 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $3,600 |
| 3 | Daniel Murphy | LEFT | 0.322 | 0.158 | 0.436 | 2B | $4,100 | 2B | $5,200 |
| 4 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.397 | 0.238 | 0.411 | OF | $4,100 | OF | $4,900 |
| 5 | Wilson Ramos | RIGHT | 0.294 | 0.167 | 0.339 | C | $3,600 | C | $4,200 |
| 6 | Anthony Rendon | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.089 | 0.359 | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $3,900 |
| 7 | Michael Taylor | RIGHT | 0.309 | 0.174 | 0.229 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,200 |
| 8 | Danny Espinosa | SWITCH | 0.357 | 0.242 | 0.443 | SS | $3,100 | SS | $4,500 |
| 9 | Stephen Strasburg | RIGHT | 0.135 | 0.000 | 0.000 | P | $11,400 | P | $12,000 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.328 | 0.157 | 0.286 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Jayson Werth, Wilson Ramos
Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Kansas City at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET
| Kansas City | Detroit | ||||||||
| Ian Kennedy | | Justin Verlander | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| DET -137 | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.346 | 29 | 24.6% | 8.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.272 | 13 | 23.5% | 6.7% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.325 | 23 | 24.5% | 6.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.303 | 16 | 22.5% | 6.1% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Ian Kennedy | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $8,300 | Salary: | $10,000 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 32.2 | FPPG: | 17.1 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 67.2 | Pitcher Rank: | 11 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 5 | 97.6 | 3.22 | 3.77 | 31.9% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 27.9% | 55.9% | 44.3% |
| 2016 | 17 | 100.1 | 4.00 | 3.97 | 24.8% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 33.3% | 47.9% | 37.5% |
| 2015 | 30 | 97.0 | 3.61 | 4.28 | 24.4% | 7.3% | 10.3% | 38.5% | 38.7% | 35.2% |
Kennedy finished off the last month before the All-Star break in style. In five starts, he had a 3.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31.9%. He draws a boom or bust type of matchup tonight against the Tigers. While Detroit does have a lot of firepower in their lineup, Kennedy will have the platoon advantage. The Tigers typically have six or seven right-handed hitters in their lineup. I would steer clear of Kennedy in cash games, but he certainly makes an interesting play in large field tournaments. Low ownership with high strikeout potential is never a bad combination in GPPs.
| Justin Verlander | ||||||||||
| FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $9,000 | Salary: | $9,400 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 36.1 | FPPG: | 19.4 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 73.9 | Pitcher Rank: | 7 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 6 | 101.8 | 4.10 | 4.26 | 21.7% | 6.2% | 10.5% | 39.6% | 45.0% | 28.3% |
| 2016 | 18 | 105.9 | 3.82 | 4.07 | 25.1% | 6.9% | 11.5% | 35.8% | 45.9% | 28.4% |
| 2015 | 20 | 107.5 | 3.95 | 3.37 | 21.1% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 34.6% | 45.5% | 23.0% |
Verlander didn’t have the strongest month before the All-Star break, but he is still have a solid season overall. In 18 starts, he has a 3.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.1% and a walk rate of 6.9%. He draws an intriguing matchup against the Royals at home. While Kansas City doesn’t strikeout all that often as a whole, they are ranked 22nd in team wOBA and 29th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. At his price, Verlander certainly deserves consideration tonight.
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
The Royals are one of those offenses that shows up when you least expect them to. While they could certainly score a few runs on Justin Verlander tonight, there are much better matchups to exploit. On the season, Verlander has held left-handed hitters to a .276 wOBA and right-handed hitters to a .276 wOBA. The one intriguing option here is Salvador Perez, who is 22-for-46 with nine extra-base hits against Verlander in his career.
- Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.133 (29 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.1% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.00 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.03 (23 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Gordon | LEFT | 0.330 | 0.168 | 0.260 | OF | $3,100 | OF | $2,800 |
| 2 | Whit Merrifield | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.111 | 0.234 | 2B | $3,100 | 2B/OF | $3,300 |
| 3 | Kendrys Morales | SWITCH | 0.356 | 0.223 | 0.504 | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $4,100 |
| 4 | Eric Hosmer | LEFT | 0.372 | 0.176 | 0.281 | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $3,400 |
| 5 | Salvador Perez | RIGHT | 0.336 | 0.203 | 0.289 | C | $3,400 | C | $3,500 |
| 6 | Paulo Orlando | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.156 | 0.148 | OF | $2,800 | OF | $2,800 |
| 7 | Cheslor Cuthbert | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.146 | 0.305 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $3,200 |
| 8 | Alcides Escobar | RIGHT | 0.269 | 0.063 | 0.315 | SS | $2,600 | SS | $2,900 |
| 9 | Jarrod Dyson | LEFT | 0.296 | 0.112 | 0.310 | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,200 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.320 | 0.151 | 0.294 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Salvador Perez
Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer
Stackability – ORANGE
Detroit
The Tigers have the fifth highest team total on the board, but given the form that Ian Kennedy has been in recently, I wouldn’t automatically load up on Detroit bats in all league formats. This is still a nice matchup though, as Ian Kennedy has allowed a .325+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. He has also given up 52 home runs in his last 47 starts.
- Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.170 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.79 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.47 (5 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Kinsler | RIGHT | 0.336 | 0.150 | 0.357 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $4,600 |
| 2 | Cameron Maybin | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.084 | 0.362 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,200 |
| 3 | Miguel Cabrera | RIGHT | 0.404 | 0.214 | 0.340 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $4,100 |
| 4 | Victor Martinez | SWITCH | 0.303 | 0.155 | 0.310 | C | $3,500 | 1B | $4,100 |
| 5 | Nick Castellanos | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.176 | 0.459 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $4,500 |
| 6 | Justin Upton | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.195 | 0.285 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,400 |
| 7 | Steven Moya | LEFT | 0.322 | 0.240 | 0.223 | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,000 |
| 8 | James McCann | RIGHT | 0.247 | 0.072 | 0.251 | C | $2,000 | C | $2,500 |
| 9 | Jose Iglesias | RIGHT | 0.284 | 0.058 | 0.256 | SS | $2,400 | SS | $2,600 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.318 | 0.149 | 0.316 | — | — | — | — |