MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 15th

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry


Before we get into the slate, I wanted to quickly recap the amazing week that I had. While I certainly missed daily fantasy baseball during the All-Star break, I had plenty to keep me entertained. It started with the trip to Nashville for the third annual RotoGrinders boating excursion. It’s always great going to Nashville to see the RotoGrinders’ crew and I can’t say thanks enough for them hosting my wife and I. I couldn’t ask for a better group of individuals to work with and am always extremely proud to be a member of Team RG. Other than a banana boat accident that we are still recovering from (those things aren’t as fun as they look), it couldn’t have been better.

Stanton1

From Nashville, we flew to San Diego for the All-Star Game. I was lucky enough to win a VIP Experience from DraftKings and as they always do, they really took care of us. From tickets to all of the events, the meet and greet with potential Hall of Famer Fred McGriff, and a seemingly endless supply of food and drinks, it was the trip of a lifetime. The All-Star Game itself was incredible, but nothing could top watching Giancarlo Stanton hit bomb after bomb after bomb at the Home Run Derby. I highly encourage everyone to play in these events that offer trips, because the sites always provide a truly incredible experience.

Now, let’s get into the slate! Oh, and one other note, I am going to be incorporating the Red/Orange/Yellow/Green grades from Kevin Roth’s weather report into the Stackability rankings.

GREEN = Stack ‘em up wherever possible, cash games and GPPs
YELLOW = Very viable stack option, especially in GPPs
ORANGE = Not a great stack option, maybe in a large tournament
RED = Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs


Texas at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Texas Chicago Cubs
texasmlb Martin Perez cubsmlb Kyle Hendricks
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC -179 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.249 2 21.5% 11.0% SP vs. Left 0.322 15 20.2% 7.2%
SP vs. Right 0.339 12 10.2% 8.2% SP vs. Right 0.253 10 23.8% 5.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Martin Perez
martin-perez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,500 Salary:
FPPG: 23.6 FPPG:
Pitcher Rating: 23.6 Pitcher Rank: 30
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 94.4 5.67 5.52 6.9% 7.7% 4.7% 49.5% 25.7% 34.2%
2016 18 96.1 5.35 3.85 11.3% 10.0% 6.9% 53.8% 25.6% 32.3%
2015 14 86.8 4.06 4.46 14.2% 7.1% 7.5% 59.9% 22.1% 22.7%

We have a single day game on the schedule today and of the two big sites, only FanDuel is offering contests that include this game. Perez will be on the mound for the Rangers and as I’ve hinted a number of times this season, I’m expecting regression to hit him hard after the All-Star break. His BABIP is far too low for a pitcher that induces that high of a ground ball rate. If you look at his chart above, you will see that his ERA is a full run and a half lower than his SIERA. Eventually, hits are going to start finding holes and we have even started to see that in his last few starts. With such a low strikeout rate, he should be avoided in all league formats.

Kyle Hendricks
kyle-hendricks-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,500 Salary:
FPPG: 30.8 FPPG:
Pitcher Rating: 77.2 Pitcher Rank: 5
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 109.8 4.37 1.78 22.0% 9.1% 10.0% 39.3% 43.8% 24.4%
2016 16 95.5 3.92 2.55 21.6% 6.8% 9.1% 51.1% 31.3% 23.8%
2015 32 87.3 3.37 3.95 22.6% 5.8% 8.1% 51.3% 26.9% 25.8%

Hendricks has a similar problem to Martin Perez – regression could be on the horizon. The difference between the two is that Hendricks has a fairly low SIERA that is accompanied by an above-average strikeout rate. He checks into today’s game as one of the largest favorites on the board, which likely has more to do with the opposing pitcher and the offense behind him. Hendricks could certainly pick up a win here, but his matchup against the Rangers isn’t one to write home about. On the season, Texas is ranked above the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers are an offense that can score runs at any time thanks to their ability to hit right-handed pitching. They have a low strikeout rate as a team and average the seventh most runs per game in baseball. While today’s matchup against Kyle Hendricks may not be the worst on the board, it’s potentially in the top five when talking about bad matchups. Texas has the third lowest implied run projection and Hendricks has held both left and right-handed under a .325 wOBA in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Shin-Soo Choo LEFT 0.383 0.205 0.383 OF $3,700
2 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.314 0.163 0.388 OF $4,200
3 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.329 0.217 0.358 2B $3,500
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.309 0.137 0.339 3B $3,500
5 Prince Fielder LEFT 0.357 0.155 0.329 1B $2,900
6 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.353 0.174 0.274 OF $2,900
7 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.285 0.087 0.387 SS $3,000
8 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.313 0.209 0.317 C $2,600
9 Martin Perez LEFT 0.000 0.000 P $6,500
Team Averages 0.294 0.150 0.347

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Rougned Odor

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

We go from one of the lowest implied team totals on the schedule to one of the highest with the Cubs. They have an implied projection of 4.46 runs, which is the sixth highest on the schedule. Chicago’s offense has been firing on all cylinders for most of the season and that should continue the rest of the way. The right-handed hitters have the edge in today’s matchup against Martin Perez. Over the last two years, he has allowed a .339 wOBA and 12 home runs to batters from the right side of the plate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.385 0.176 0.327 2B $3,100
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.386 0.274 0.572 3B $3,700
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.374 0.204 0.487 1B $4,600
4 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.373 0.179 0.357 C $3,100
5 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.262 0.161 0.329 SS $3,200
6 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.311 0.100 0.329 OF $2,500
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.454 0.250 0.397 SS $3,300
8 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.394 0.357 0.397 OF $2,000
9 Kyle Hendricks RIGHT 0.097 0.045 0.146 P $8,500
Team Averages 0.337 0.194 0.371

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez

Stackability – GREEN

Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Boston NY Yankees
bostonmlb Steven Wright nyyankeesmlb Michael Pineda
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY -109 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.281 7 17.3% 9.1% SP vs. Left 0.328 14 24.8% 5.6%
SP vs. Right 0.304 12 19.6% 8.8% SP vs. Right 0.333 22 24.9% 3.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Steven Wright
steven-wright-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $9,700
FPPG: 37.8 FPPG: 19.8
Pitcher Rating: 56.9 Pitcher Rank: 18
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 103.8 4.41 4.22 16.8% 7.0% 9.6% 54.4% 30.1% 32.4%
2016 17 107.6 4.49 2.68 19.8% 9.0% 10.9% 47.6% 32.6% 28.0%
2015 9 130.9 4.60 4.09 16.8% 8.7% 9.3% 43.2% 43.2% 33.9%

Wright is one of those pitchers that I always have to give a manual boost to in my MLB model. He doesn’t do anything particularly well, but he always seems to give his team a chance to win. He also has the ability to pitch very deep into games, because a knuckleball pitcher doesn’t exert nearly as much energy as your typical major league pitcher. The issue that I have with Wright tonight is that he is a sizable underdog on the road. The Yankees currently have the highest implied run total on the schedule, which typically isn’t good news for the opposing pitcher.

Michael Pineda
michael-pineda-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,600
FPPG: 28.8 FPPG: 15.1
Pitcher Rating: 74.7 Pitcher Rank: 7
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 98.2 2.72 3.68 35.6% 7.6% 13.2% 45.5% 33.3% 26.9%
2016 17 97.0 3.38 5.38 27.2% 6.3% 13.9% 43.9% 33.2% 29.7%
2015 27 94.4 3.09 4.37 23.4% 3.1% 11.9% 48.2% 29.9% 30.1%

Unlike the pitchers in the Rangers/Cubs game, I have been saying that Pineda should actually be pitching better than his numbers indicate. His peripheral statistics have looked good for most of the season and we are finally starting to see those results come to fruition. Over the last month of play, Pineda has a 2.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate over 35%. Those numbers are right up there with the best pitchers in all of baseball. His true test will come tonight against the Red Sox, who just so happen to have the best offense in the majors. I may give Pineda a look in GPPs, but slightly prefer Chris Archer or Jaime Garcia at similar price points.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox may be underdogs tonight, but it wouldn’t be right if they didn’t have one of the highest run projections on the board. They have the best offense in baseball and have constantly made it tough on opposing pitchers, whether it’s an ace or a back-end rotation guy. Even with his recent success, Michael Pineda has still allowed a .328+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Many will be scared off by Pineda’s recent numbers, but you can still target the Red Sox with confidence.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.361 0.203 0.422 OF $3,500 OF $5,100
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.350 0.142 0.324 2B $3,100 2B $3,900
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.338 0.116 0.301 SS $3,400 SS $4,300
4 David Ortiz LEFT 0.441 0.350 0.441 1B $4,000 1B $5,300
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.316 0.144 0.522 1B $3,000 1B $4,200
6 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.381 0.283 0.316 OF $3,500 OF $4,300
7 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.341 0.187 0.357 3B $2,700 1B/3B $3,600
8 Brock Holt LEFT 0.312 0.115 0.466 OF $3,200 OF $3,100
9 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.316 0.088 0.479 C $2,900 C $3,300
Team Averages 0.351 0.181 0.403

Elite Plays – David Ortiz

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees have been a disappointment this season and it will be interesting to see if they start selling (which is very un-Yankee like). While they are ranked 22nd in team wOBA against right-handed pitching, they have the third highest implied team total on the board tonight. They draw a decent matchup against Steven Wright, who will have a tough time maintaining his current ERA the rest of the season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.331 0.141 0.270 OF $3,300 OF $3,800
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.313 0.107 0.352 OF $3,500 OF $3,900
3 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.354 0.208 0.380 OF $3,600 OF $4,200
4 Mark Teixeira SWITCH 0.350 0.276 0.309 1B $2,600 1B $3,200
5 Brian McCann LEFT 0.335 0.213 0.496 C $3,100 C $4,900
6 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.290 0.127 0.305 2B $2,400 2B $3,200
7 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.318 0.149 0.468 SS $2,900 SS $4,700
8 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.306 0.115 0.382 3B $2,600 3B $3,900
9 Rob Refsnyder RIGHT 0.332 0.159 0.292 1B $2,400 1B/OF $3,400
Team Averages 0.325 0.166 0.362

Elite Plays – Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Mark Teixeira

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Mets at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

NY Mets Philadelphia
nymetsmlb Bartolo Colon philadelphiamlb Jeremy Hellickson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM -123 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.322 21 15.5% 3.8% SP vs. Left 0.344 16 17.5% 9.1%
SP vs. Right 0.305 17 17.5% 2.9% SP vs. Right 0.319 22 21.8% 4.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Bartolo Colon
bartolo-colon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $6,200
FPPG: 25.9 FPPG: 13.1
Pitcher Rating: 59.3 Pitcher Rank: 17
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 72.8 4.06 3.86 16.2% 3.8% 4.4% 50.0% 26.2% 39.3%
2016 17 85.6 4.38 3.28 16.1% 4.2% 5.2% 43.4% 31.3% 37.6%
2015 31 87.3 4.02 4.16 16.7% 2.9% 6.4% 42.3% 36.9% 29.0%

Colon was a late addition to the All-Star Game, but he didn’t end up pitching in the game. He will get the nod for the Mets tonight against the Phillies. While he has a well below-average strikeout rate, he continues to pitch well this season. He currently owns a 3.28 ERA with a walk rate of only 4.2%. He doesn’t have the greatest velocity at this stage in his career, but he knows how to hit his spots. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Phillies, who are ranked 25th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. There are some better values available tonight, but Colon isn’t the worst play at his price.

Jeremy Hellickson
jeremy-hellickson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $8,400
FPPG: 29.4 FPPG: 15.4
Pitcher Rating: 54.5 Pitcher Rank: 21
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 94.6 4.39 2.90 17.5% 5.6% 9.5% 43.6% 33.0% 20.0%
2016 18 92.9 4.03 3.92 21.3% 6.2% 11.5% 42.4% 33.4% 28.4%
2015 27 91.8 4.14 4.62 19.0% 6.8% 10.3% 42.4% 36.5% 34.3%

Hellickson is having a nice bounce-back season for the Phillies. In 18 starts, he has a 4.03 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.3%. He comes into tonight’s game as a small underdog against the Mets. While I’m generally not too concerned about using pitchers that are underdogs, I don’t love targeting ones in games that are expected to be high scoring. The over/under for this one is set at 9.0 runs, which suggests scoring could come in bunches. There are better pitchers to target tonight than Hellickson.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets are still missing a few pieces offensively, but Jose Reyes has been a nice addition at the top of their lineup. As strange as it seems, New York has the second highest implied run projection tonight. They draw a decent matchup against Jeremy Hellickson, who has allowed a .344 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. He has also given up 38 home runs in his last 45 starts.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.298 0.104 0.414 3B $2,800 SS $3,500
2 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.371 0.226 0.481 OF $3,400 OF $4,600
3 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.327 0.170 0.252 2B $3,600 2B $3,700
4 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.379 0.264 0.470 OF $4,000 OF $5,200
5 James Loney LEFT 0.319 0.103 0.310 1B $3,000 1B $3,400
6 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.318 0.176 0.343 SS $2,500 SS $4,000
7 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.289 0.075 0.309 OF $2,000 OF $3,000
8 Travis D’Arnaud RIGHT 0.321 0.162 0.396 C $2,100 C $3,300
9 Bartolo Colon RIGHT 0.144 0.077 0.000 P $7,400 P $6,200
Team Averages 0.307 0.151 0.331

Elite Plays – Jose Reyes, Curtis Granderson

Secondary Plays – Neil Walker, Yoenies Cespedes, James Loney

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia

The Phillies’ offense really started gaining momentum before the All-Star break. We will see if they can keep it going in the second half of the season. Their matchup against Bartolo Colon isn’t great, but it’s not like he’s unhittable. If Colon’s command is off even a little, a 90 MPH fastball down the middle can be hit by anyone in the majors. The Phillies are interesting GPP plays, but I will be looking elsewhere in cash games.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.355 0.145 0.321 OF $3,500 OF $4,100
2 Peter Bourjos RIGHT 0.293 0.156 0.436 OF $2,900 OF $3,400
3 Cody Asche LEFT 0.312 0.178 0.328 OF $2,800 OF $3,500
4 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.353 0.216 0.510 3B $3,000 3B $4,400
5 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.278 0.225 0.405 1B $2,700 1B $3,600
6 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.297 0.152 0.450 C $2,900 C $3,700
7 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.301 0.088 0.426 2B $2,500 2B $3,600
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.294 0.126 0.313 SS $2,500 SS $3,500
9 Jeremy Hellickson RIGHT 0.198 0.000 0.000 P $7,000 P $8,400
Team Averages 0.298 0.143 0.354

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Peter Bourjos, Cody Asche, Maikel Franco

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pittsburgh Washington
pittsburghmlb Francisco Liriano washingtonmlb Stephen Strasburg
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS -195 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.285 6 24.9% 9.3% SP vs. Left 0.252 12 31.1% 7.6%
SP vs. Right 0.311 23 24.2% 11.0% SP vs. Right 0.294 13 29.8% 4.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Francisco Liriano
francisco-liriano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $4,900
FPPG: 24.6 FPPG: 11.4
Pitcher Rating: 57.7 Pitcher Rank: 19
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 6 97.0 5.25 4.94 18.9% 13.5% 10.5% 46.3% 33.7% 27.1%
2016 17 96.2 5.01 5.15 20.5% 13.5% 10.3% 49.6% 31.7% 33.9%
2015 31 96.2 3.38 3.38 26.5% 9.1% 14.3% 51.2% 26.3% 24.3%

Liriano is hoping to fix whatever plagued him in the first half of the season. His 17 starts so far have been a far cry from what we saw him do a year ago. He currently has a 5.01 SIERA with a walk rate of 13.5%. Until he flashes some form (which may never happen), he should continue to be avoided in all league formats. A matchup against the Nationals only makes that decision even easier, as they are ranked second in team wOBA and first in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season.

Stephen Strasburg
stephen-strasburg-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $11,400 Salary: $12,000
FPPG: 47.9 FPPG: 24.9
Pitcher Rating: 98.0 Pitcher Rank: 1
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 3 107.3 3.76 0.87 29.0% 10.5% 9.3% 40.0% 37.8% 24.4%
2016 16 104.0 3.10 2.62 31.4% 7.4% 11.3% 44.4% 35.6% 25.1%
2015 23 88.8 2.76 3.46 29.6% 5.0% 11.2% 42.2% 34.3% 28.9%

Strasburg has been terrific this season, posting a 3.10 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31.4%. His walk rate has been a little high this season, but at 7.4% it’s nothing more than a blip on the radar. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Pirates, whose lineup primarily consists of right-handed hitters. A platoon advantage is never a bad thing for a pitcher to have. Strasburg is right there with Madison Bumgarner as the top overall pitching option in tonight’s slate.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have been slumping over the last month of play and that will likely continue tonight. They come into the game with the lowest implied total at only 3.20 runs. They draw a difficult matchup against Stephen Strasburg, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 John Jaso LEFT 0.347 0.147 0.288 1B $3,100 1B $3,200
2 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.342 0.165 0.277 OF $3,500 OF $4,500
3 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.354 0.157 0.284 OF $3,400 OF $5,100
4 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.358 0.192 0.341 OF $3,300 OF $3,900
5 Jung-Ho Kang RIGHT 0.364 0.201 0.282 3B $3,800 3B $4,000
6 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.294 0.101 0.233 2B $3,000 2B $3,400
7 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.273 0.076 0.340 SS $2,800 SS $3,600
8 Eric Fryer RIGHT 0.389 0.100 0.375 C $2,300 C $2,600
9 Francisco Liriano LEFT 0.260 0.082 0.220 P $8,000 P $4,900
Team Averages 0.331 0.136 0.293

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals have a better matchup than their implied Vegas total would suggest. They have been one of the best offenses against left-handed pitching in baseball this season and statistically speaking, they have one of the best matchups on the board. Francisco Liriano has struggled with his command this year and he has allowed a .359 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.384 0.071 0.000 SS $2,300 2B/SS $3,400
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.403 0.278 0.355 OF $3,500 OF $3,600
3 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.322 0.158 0.436 2B $4,100 2B $5,200
4 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.397 0.238 0.411 OF $4,100 OF $4,900
5 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.294 0.167 0.339 C $3,600 C $4,200
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.352 0.089 0.359 3B $3,000 3B $3,900
7 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.309 0.174 0.229 OF $3,200 OF $4,200
8 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.357 0.242 0.443 SS $3,100 SS $4,500
9 Stephen Strasburg RIGHT 0.135 0.000 0.000 P $11,400 P $12,000
Team Averages 0.328 0.157 0.286

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Jayson Werth, Wilson Ramos

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Kansas City at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Kansas City Detroit
kansascitymlb Ian Kennedy detroitmlb Justin Verlander
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET -137 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.346 29 24.6% 8.6% SP vs. Left 0.272 13 23.5% 6.7%
SP vs. Right 0.325 23 24.5% 6.5% SP vs. Right 0.303 16 22.5% 6.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ian Kennedy
ian-kennedy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $10,000
FPPG: 32.2 FPPG: 17.1
Pitcher Rating: 67.2 Pitcher Rank: 11
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 97.6 3.22 3.77 31.9% 6.9% 10.3% 27.9% 55.9% 44.3%
2016 17 100.1 4.00 3.97 24.8% 8.0% 10.1% 33.3% 47.9% 37.5%
2015 30 97.0 3.61 4.28 24.4% 7.3% 10.3% 38.5% 38.7% 35.2%

Kennedy finished off the last month before the All-Star break in style. In five starts, he had a 3.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31.9%. He draws a boom or bust type of matchup tonight against the Tigers. While Detroit does have a lot of firepower in their lineup, Kennedy will have the platoon advantage. The Tigers typically have six or seven right-handed hitters in their lineup. I would steer clear of Kennedy in cash games, but he certainly makes an interesting play in large field tournaments. Low ownership with high strikeout potential is never a bad combination in GPPs.

Justin Verlander
justin-verlander-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $9,400
FPPG: 36.1 FPPG: 19.4
Pitcher Rating: 73.9 Pitcher Rank: 7
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 6 101.8 4.10 4.26 21.7% 6.2% 10.5% 39.6% 45.0% 28.3%
2016 18 105.9 3.82 4.07 25.1% 6.9% 11.5% 35.8% 45.9% 28.4%
2015 20 107.5 3.95 3.37 21.1% 6.0% 10.0% 34.6% 45.5% 23.0%

Verlander didn’t have the strongest month before the All-Star break, but he is still have a solid season overall. In 18 starts, he has a 3.82 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.1% and a walk rate of 6.9%. He draws an intriguing matchup against the Royals at home. While Kansas City doesn’t strikeout all that often as a whole, they are ranked 22nd in team wOBA and 29th in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. At his price, Verlander certainly deserves consideration tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals are one of those offenses that shows up when you least expect them to. While they could certainly score a few runs on Justin Verlander tonight, there are much better matchups to exploit. On the season, Verlander has held left-handed hitters to a .276 wOBA and right-handed hitters to a .276 wOBA. The one intriguing option here is Salvador Perez, who is 22-for-46 with nine extra-base hits against Verlander in his career.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.330 0.168 0.260 OF $3,100 OF $2,800
2 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.292 0.111 0.234 2B $3,100 2B/OF $3,300
3 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.356 0.223 0.504 1B $3,200 1B $4,100
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.372 0.176 0.281 1B $2,900 1B $3,400
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.336 0.203 0.289 C $3,400 C $3,500
6 Paulo Orlando RIGHT 0.312 0.156 0.148 OF $2,800 OF $2,800
7 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.313 0.146 0.305 3B $3,200 3B $3,200
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.269 0.063 0.315 SS $2,600 SS $2,900
9 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.296 0.112 0.310 OF $2,300 OF $3,200
Team Averages 0.320 0.151 0.294

Elite Plays – Salvador Perez

Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

The Tigers have the fifth highest team total on the board, but given the form that Ian Kennedy has been in recently, I wouldn’t automatically load up on Detroit bats in all league formats. This is still a nice matchup though, as Ian Kennedy has allowed a .325+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. He has also given up 52 home runs in his last 47 starts.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.336 0.150 0.357 2B $3,800 2B $4,600
2 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.308 0.084 0.362 OF $3,000 OF $4,200
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.404 0.214 0.340 1B $3,700 1B $4,100
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.303 0.155 0.310 C $3,500 1B $4,100
5 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.320 0.176 0.459 3B $3,600 3B $4,500
6 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.334 0.195 0.285 OF $2,900 OF $3,400
7 Steven Moya LEFT 0.322 0.240 0.223 OF $2,800 OF $3,000
8 James McCann RIGHT 0.247 0.072 0.251 C $2,000 C $2,500
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.284 0.058 0.256 SS $2,400 SS $2,600
Team Averages 0.318 0.149 0.316

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Nick Castellanos, Steven Moya

Stackability – YELLOW


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious