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MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 8th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-09-09 12:09:18

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Philadelphia at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Philadelphia Washington
philadelphiamlb Jake Thompson washingtonmlb Max Scherzer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-350 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.358 0.358 37.5% 13.3% 13.3% 56.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.302 0.285 28.6% 8.6% 26.6% 33.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.412 0.386 36.0% 6.9% 20.6% 36.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.174 0.184 26.1% 4.2% 44.6% 44.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Thompson
jake-thompson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 5.68 5.70 13.5% 11.8% 46.4% 34.1% 14.5%
2017 4 4.96 4.50 17.8% 9.3% 44.4% 36.6% 17.1%
L30 2 4.30 4.91 22.9% 8.3% 44.8% 30.0% 20.0%

Thompson is routinely an auto-fade when it comes to DFS. He has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and a high hard contact rate. He also plays for a bad team and is facing a talented Nationals’ offense that is ranked fifth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. I’d love to give you more reasons to fade Thompson, but I shouldn’t need to.

Quick Breakdown: If you like positive fantasy production, avoid Thompson in all formats.

Max Scherzer
max-scherzer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,600 Salary: $13,300 Salary: $25,800
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.05 2.96 31.5% 6.2% 33.0% 30.1% 22.2%
2017 26 2.83 2.19 35.1% 6.5% 38.0% 27.6% 20.7%
L30 3 3.29 1.89 31.0% 7.0% 36.6% 23.3% 27.9%

While Thompson is an auto-fade, Scherzer has basically been an auto-play this season. In 26 starts, he owns a 2.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35% and a walk rate of 7%. He has managed to lower his hard contact rate this year and he’s always been able to induce soft contact. He draws one of the best matchups on the board, as he squares off against a Phillies’ offense that is ranked 25th in team wOBA and 26th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. The icing on the cake is that Scherzer is pitching at home.

Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is the clear number one in tonight’s slate. Fire him up in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies are a bad offense to begin with and now have to face one of the best pitchers in baseball. Max Scherzer strikeout ability is unfair, but when you add in the intimidation factor of having two different colored eyes, the Phillies don’t stand a chance. On the season, Scherzer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 xwOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.344 0.306 0.109 22.7% 10.5% 20.4% 49.6% 2B $3,100 2B $3,300 2B $6,400
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.309 0.290 0.148 27.6% 7.9% 20.0% 35.1% SS $2,900 SS $2,800 SS $5,600
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.323 0.303 0.162 27.8% 6.8% 21.9% 42.6% OF $3,200 OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.458 0.379 0.352 45.6% 11.1% 17.3% 26.3% OF $3,600 1B/OF $3,800 1B $7,500
5 Nick Williams LEFT 0.344 0.327 0.213 38.8% 7.5% 26.7% 52.1% OF $3,500 OF $2,800 LF $5,400
6 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.274 0.338 0.065 29.1% 9.1% 17.2% 46.3% OF $2,300 OF $2,600 IF/OF $5,100
7 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.305 0.301 0.178 36.6% 5.1% 23.9% 42.7% 1B $2,400 1B $2,700 1B $5,200
8 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.290 0.286 0.228 27.4% 7.3% 35.4% 48.7% C $2,200 C $2,600 C $5,200
9 Jake Thompson RIGHT 0.422 0.396 0.200 50.0% 0.0% 20.0% 50.0% P $6,500 P $5,100 P $10,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals haven’t skipped a beat without Bryce Harper in the lineup. They continue to win baseball games and they continue to score runs in bunches. I expect more of the same tonight against Jake Thompson, who has struggled with both left and right-handed hitters in his short-lived major league career. If we hear that the Nationals are going to be low owned in tournaments, they will become one of my favorite stacks in the slate. My hot take in today’s Expert Survey is that Turner completes the speedster’s version of a home run: singles (or walks), steals second, steals third, then scores a run.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.351 0.317 0.173 26.0% 6.9% 17.0% 51.7% SS $4,100 SS $5,300 IF/OF $10,400
2 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.355 0.303 0.137 28.9% 5.7% 21.9% 63.2% OF $2,900 2B/OF $4,500 IF/OF $8,700
3 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.382 0.367 0.232 35.4% 8.8% 10.8% 32.9% 2B $3,800 2B $5,100 2B $9,900
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.377 0.371 0.244 39.2% 7.8% 22.9% 47.9% 1B $3,500 1B $4,600 1B $8,800
5 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.380 0.359 0.216 34.2% 12.9% 14.7% 35.5% 3B $3,600 3B $4,600 3B $8,800
6 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.314 0.281 0.198 33.1% 6.9% 32.7% 43.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
7 Alejandro De Aza LEFT 0.207 0.173 0.077 23.5% 3.4% 37.9% 26.7% OF $2,100 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.269 0.298 0.113 29.9% 7.1% 18.3% 41.4% C $2,600 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.213 0.218 0.000 16.3% 7.3% 14.5% 71.1% P $11,600 P $13,300 P $25,800

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Howie Kendrick, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Detroit Toronto
detroitmlb Buck Farmer torontomlb Marcus Stroman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-220 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.314 0.229 25.8% 8.0% 28.0% 25.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.301 0.317 31.6% 8.0% 18.6% 64.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.373 0.358 35.6% 6.2% 21.5% 38.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.304 30.5% 6.4% 21.0% 57.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Buck Farmer
george-farmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $5,300 Salary: $10,400
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 4.97 4.60 20.6% 15.3% 51.8% 25.3% 25.3%
2017 6 4.05 7.18 24.4% 7.0% 33.3% 31.6% 14.5%
L30 2 5.76 8.31 15.0% 10.0% 28.6% 28.6% 10.7%

Farmer has really struggled in his last two starts, posting a 5.76 SIERA with a 15% strikeout rate. It’s still early in the day, but the Blue Jays currently have the third highest implied run total in the slate, despite struggling against right-handed pitching for most of the season. Even when Farmer was in good form earlier in the year, he wasn’t a pitcher that we could rely on to pitch deep into games. He has struggled with his command throughout his career and is an easy fade tonight on the road.

Quick Breakdown: We don’t have to look hard to find better pitching options in this slate.

Marcus Stroman
marcus-stroman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.62 4.37 19.4% 6.3% 60.1% 31.8% 18.3%
2017 28 3.83 3.08 19.9% 7.1% 61.0% 31.0% 20.7%
L30 5 3.64 2.63 19.5% 4.4% 55.3% 40.0% 15.3%

Stroman left the last game early after being struck on the elbow with a line drive. He was able to toss a successful side session on Wednesday and is not expected to be hampered in any way tonight. As an industry, we tend to overreact to injuries in DFS. This typically lowers ownership and gives us a chance to gain leverage on the field in tournaments. Stroman is one of my favorite GPP plays in tonight’s slate. He draws a favorable matchup against a right-handed heavy Tigers’ lineup. On the season, Stroman has held righties to a .304 xwOBA with a 21% strikeout rate.

Quick Breakdown: Stroman is cheap, he’s a massive favorite, he draws a favorable matchup, and he should be under-owned. Sign me up.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers have been an easy offense to fade when facing a right-handed pitcher. With Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez out, they are basically missing their four best hitters from the starts of the season (traded away Justin Upton and J.D. Martinez). They draw a difficult matchup tonight against Marcus Stroman, who has an elite ground ball rate. On the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact. If Miguel Montero is behind the plate, Ian Kinsler would become intriguing as a cheap second baseman with stolen base upside.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.289 0.307 0.130 34.3% 9.0% 13.3% 35.6% 2B $2,900 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
2 Alex Presley LEFT 0.327 0.300 0.090 31.5% 6.0% 17.9% 47.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 LF $6,800
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.304 0.343 0.161 44.2% 6.6% 24.2% 37.5% 3B $3,000 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
4 John Hicks RIGHT 0.408 0.378 0.200 39.4% 6.3% 21.1% 48.5% C $2,500 1B/C $3,300 C $6,400
5 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.279 0.250 0.114 25.0% 6.3% 25.0% 43.8% 3B $2,500 1B/3B $2,700 3B $5,200
6 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.332 0.306 0.153 35.7% 6.7% 22.8% 49.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.287 0.310 0.122 40.1% 6.7% 26.5% 36.9% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,700
8 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.244 0.233 0.086 30.3% 10.6% 37.9% 56.3% OF $2,300 OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,600
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.354 0.292 0.091 36.1% 5.3% 17.0% 58.3% 2B $2,100 2B/SS $2,700 SS $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler (if Montero is catching), John Hicks

Stackability – RED

Toronto

The Blue Jays are a team that has let most of us down at some point during the season. As long as they don’t become a trendy stack, they will be on my radar tonight. Buck Farmer is a fly-ball pitcher that struggles with his command and has a tendency to get blown up more often than most pitchers. This sounds like a good recipe for a stack. The one through five hitters in this lineup are all viable tonight, whether it ends being Ezequiel Carrera or Steve Pearce batting leadoff.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.365 0.296 0.147 26.3% 8.1% 21.6% 48.5% OF $2,200 OF $2,900 RF $5,600
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.384 0.377 0.265 33.0% 15.8% 23.8% 41.2% 3B $3,700 3B $5,200 3B $10,000
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.366 0.388 0.282 41.0% 10.0% 23.0% 35.1% 1B $3,400 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.308 0.323 0.178 34.3% 13.1% 23.7% 35.6% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.295 0.354 0.202 37.2% 7.0% 22.3% 48.3% 1B $3,100 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
6 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.328 0.317 0.169 34.4% 8.1% 17.7% 41.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 1B $6,600
7 Miguel Montero LEFT 0.295 0.291 0.154 36.3% 10.0% 22.4% 37.2% C $2,500 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.230 0.248 0.106 22.2% 1.6% 15.6% 48.3% 2B $2,400 2B/3B $2,900 2B $5,700
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.270 0.274 0.121 29.3% 7.1% 18.7% 46.0% SS $2,200 2B/SS $2,800 2B $5,600

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera or Steve Pearce (leadoff man), Jose Bautista

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Baltimore Cleveland
baltimoremlb Wade Miley clevelandmlb Mike Clevinger
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-154 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.283 0.328 33.3% 14.3% 21.9% 60.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.353 0.348 37.0% 11.1% 25.6% 31.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.363 0.356 32.1% 12.0% 19.2% 49.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.265 0.289 33.8% 13.0% 28.5% 43.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Wade Miley
wade-miley-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.21 5.37 19.3% 6.9% 47.3% 33.3% 17.3%
2017 28 4.98 4.91 19.6% 12.4% 50.7% 32.3% 17.1%
L30 5 4.69 2.51 22.1% 12.3% 51.9% 22.5% 17.5%

Miley has a 2.51 ERA in his last five starts. Am I buying into it? If you know anything about me, then you know that my answer is a resounding no. We saw the same thing earlier in the year when his advanced numbers pointed to some serious regression. I stayed the course and continued to stack against him and eventually it started to pay off. A pitcher with a walk rate of 12% that struggles with batters from both sides of the plate is always an easy fade.

Quick Breakdown: Miley should be avoided in all formats tonight against the Indians.

Mike Clevinger
michael-clevinger-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 4.77 5.26 21.5% 12.5% 38.2% 31.2% 18.2%
2017 18 4.29 3.50 27.3% 12.2% 38.6% 35.2% 17.2%
L30 4 3.62 2.08 31.1% 10.4% 34.4% 36.1% 21.3%

Clevinger has been in terrific form over his last four starts, posting a 3.62 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31%. The issue that I have with him is his high walk rate. He tends to throw a lot of pitches outside of the strike zone, which leads to a high pitch count and an inability to pitch deep into games. Basically, he doesn’t have quite the same upside as a pitcher that keeps his walks down and can pitch seven or eight innings. The good news is that he is facing a right-handed heavy Orioles’ lineup that doesn’t draw many walks.

Quick Breakdown: This is a boom or bust matchup for Clevinger, but I will have some shares in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles hit right-handed pitching well (every single hitter in their projected lineup has an ISO over .165 this season), but they don’t draw many walks and they strikeout at a high rate. This seems to play into the hand of Mike Clevinger, whose biggest weapon is the strikeout and whose biggest weakness is a high walk rate. The Orioles aren’t a priority for me tonight, but Manny Machado is worth a look as a low-owned one-off target.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.342 0.311 0.172 40.6% 5.0% 29.2% 48.1% SS $3,600 SS $4,700 SS $9,200
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.344 0.366 0.227 37.8% 8.2% 16.2% 42.2% 3B $4,300 3B $5,200 3B $10,000
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.363 0.312 0.208 33.2% 4.4% 20.3% 40.9% 2B $4,000 2B $4,500 2B $8,800
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.336 0.309 0.200 31.0% 3.3% 18.3% 44.3% OF $3,300 OF $4,700 CF $9,300
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.377 0.353 0.250 36.0% 6.5% 22.2% 52.1% OF $3,400 1B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
6 Chris Davis LEFT 0.326 0.341 0.257 44.3% 12.0% 35.0% 35.7% 1B $3,700 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
7 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.297 0.307 0.167 31.4% 7.7% 24.4% 42.3% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
8 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.335 0.337 0.204 37.6% 5.9% 25.1% 41.2% C $3,400 C $3,600 C $7,200
9 Seth Smith LEFT 0.347 0.355 0.184 36.5% 9.9% 20.2% 42.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 LF $6,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

I’ve been high on the first two home teams featured in the Grind Down and I might as well let the trend continue. The Indians are one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching and should have nine right-handed hitters in their lineup tonight against Wade Miley. As mentioned above, Miley has a high walk rate and he has struggled with righties, allowing a .356 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate this season. Over the last 14 days, Edwin Encarnacion has a .483 xwOBA, which is the second highest of any hitter during that stretch with at least 20 plate appearances.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.374 0.353 0.220 40.9% 8.2% 13.7% 39.5% SS $4,100 SS $5,300 SS $10,400
2 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.431 0.369 0.245 31.3% 12.4% 19.0% 45.8% OF $3,300 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.379 0.349 0.236 33.9% 6.7% 11.9% 41.2% 2B $3,900 2B/3B $5,400 IF/OF $10,400
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.361 0.389 0.188 38.7% 19.7% 22.2% 44.1% 1B $4,200 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.336 0.340 0.185 32.4% 13.2% 8.7% 50.6% 1B $4,400 1B $4,700 1B $9,300
6 Yandy Diaz RIGHT 0.383 0.433 0.061 48.0% 28.3% 17.4% 56.0% 3B $2,300 3B/OF $3,400 3B $6,600
7 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.315 0.310 0.114 22.2% 8.3% 21.5% 37.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.368 0.329 0.258 40.9% 10.7% 24.1% 44.3% C $3,000 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Greg Allen SWITCH 0.560 0.448 0.250 66.7% 20.0% 20.0% 66.7% OF $2,000 OF $3,300 CF $6,400

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Austin Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Yandy Diaz

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Cincinnati NY Mets
cincinnatimlb Amir Garrett nymetsmlb Seth Lugo
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-105 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.382 0.321 36.4% 2.1% 27.7% 51.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.321 34.8% 7.3% 15.6% 39.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.387 0.373 43.7% 12.9% 16.6% 40.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.346 0.309 34.8% 5.7% 22.2% 45.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Amir Garrett
amir-garrett-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 12 5.14 7.41 18.6% 11.0% 42.2% 42.4% 12.0%

Garrett came out of the gates firing earlier this season and was actually one of the highest owned pitchers in a few different slates. Big league hitters quickly caught up to him though, and he struggled mightily after that. He was sent back down to the minors where he made 14 starts and posted some mediocre numbers: 4.03 FIP with a strikeout rate of 20%. The Mets may not have the most talented lineup around, but I’d rather target their side of this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Until Garrett can flash some form in the majors, he can be avoided in all formats.

Seth Lugo
seth-lugo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 8 4.66 2.67 17.3% 8.1% 42.8% 38.4% 16.8%
2017 13 4.51 5.00 18.7% 6.5% 42.3% 34.8% 18.0%
L30 3 3.61 7.07 28.8% 9.1% 50.0% 36.6% 19.5%

Lugo has been a little better in his last few starts, but still owns a 4.51 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a hard contact rate of 35% on the season. Those numbers aren’t all that inspiring and neither is his matchup against the Reds, who are ranked fifth in team wOBA and tenth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: For a game in Citi Field, this one has a high total (9.0 runs). Both starting pitchers can be avoided tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Even though the Reds see a negative ballpark shift playing in New York, they draw a favorable matchup against Seth Lugo and are an offense that should get overlooked in this slate. While I won’t be stacking Cincinnati, there are a few intriguing plays here. On the season, Lugo has allowed a 35% hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. With Billy Hamilton on the DL, Phillip Ervin (who is also very fast) should bat leadoff again tonight and makes for one of the top values on the board. I also have interest in the left-handed bats of Joey Votto and Scott Schebler.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Phillip Ervin RIGHT 0.356 0.320 0.353 23.1% 5.6% 22.2% 38.5% OF $2,100 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.377 0.322 0.222 29.1% 12.6% 15.9% 40.1% SS $3,300 SS $4,500 SS $8,800
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.431 0.430 0.264 37.2% 19.0% 10.7% 37.8% 1B $4,400 1B $5,200 1B $10,000
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.322 0.288 0.236 33.1% 5.1% 27.3% 31.4% OF $3,100 OF $4,700 IF/OF $9,200
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.397 0.337 0.268 38.1% 6.9% 20.7% 40.9% 2B $3,500 2B $4,400 2B $8,700
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.365 0.355 0.208 31.5% 12.9% 21.2% 38.8% 3B $3,900 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
7 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.336 0.362 0.261 40.0% 10.4% 23.7% 43.8% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.316 0.333 0.118 34.3% 10.0% 16.5% 44.0% C $3,100 C $2,900 C $5,600
9 Amir Garrett LEFT 0.088 0.129 0.071 0.0% 0.0% 31.3% 40.0% P $7,000 P $5,700 P $11,400

Elite Plays – Phillip Ervin

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Zack Cozart, Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets

There’s a good chance that I’m a night too late to jump on the Mets’ stack, but I see an exploitable matchup against Amir Garrett, who has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and a high hard contact rate. On the season, he has allowed a .373 xwOBA with a massive 44% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. If you are looking to stack an offense and still want to play Max Scherzer, the Mets can help accomplish that goal. They are extremely cheap across the industry. Jose Reyes is one of my favorite plays in the slate, as he has now reached base 22 times in his last ten games (14 hits and eight walks).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.340 0.279 0.189 26.3% 9.3% 14.0% 37.2% SS $3,200 3B/SS $3,700 SS $7,200
2 Juan Lagares RIGHT 0.288 0.277 0.125 32.6% 4.8% 19.4% 40.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
3 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.354 0.323 0.086 37.5% 6.3% 15.2% 50.6% 3B $3,400 2B/SS $3,900 SS $7,800
4 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.265 0.266 0.000 16.7% 20.8% 29.2% 54.5% OF $2,900 OF $3,200 LF $6,400
5 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.399 0.338 0.239 35.2% 11.3% 21.3% 51.9% C $2,600 C $3,600 C $7,200
6 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.373 0.276 0.320 23.8% 3.8% 15.4% 47.6% SS $2,500 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
7 Dominic Smith LEFT 0.187 0.308 0.077 33.3% 6.7% 33.3% 44.4% 1B $2,500 1B $2,800 1B $5,400
8 Travis Taijeron RIGHT 0.000 0.182 0.000 33.3% 0.0% 25.0% 66.7% OF $2,000 OF $2,300 RF $4,500
9 Seth Lugo RIGHT 0.404 0.298 0.455 30.0% 0.0% 16.7% 75.0% P $6,000 P $5,800 P $11,400

Elite Plays – Jose Reyes, Travis d’Arnaud

Secondary Plays – Juan Lagares, Asdrubal Cabrera, Amed Rosario

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Tampa Bay Boston
tampabaymlb Chris Archer bostonmlb Drew Pomeranz
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-130 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.326 0.304 43.5% 8.5% 29.8% 40.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.376 0.308 32.9% 10.6% 28.2% 35.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.274 0.282 36.3% 5.5% 30.2% 40.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.295 0.307 31.4% 8.9% 23.2% 44.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Archer
chris-archer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $9,400 Salary: $18,000
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 3.50 4.02 27.4% 7.9% 47.8% 32.8% 18.0%
2017 29 3.35 3.76 30.0% 6.9% 40.3% 39.6% 14.1%
L30 5 2.62 3.55 34.6% 3.9% 34.4% 46.9% 9.4%

Archer has been in great form recently and has a better track record than most in Fenway Park, but I have little to no interest in him tonight. For starters, this is an awful ballpark and the Red Sox have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any team in baseball. It doesn’t help that Archer has been dealing with a forearm injury and that he wasn’t expected to make his next start until Saturday or Sunday. Austin Pruitt was needed in relief, so Archer’s start was pushed up to tonight.

Quick Breakdown: There are enough red flags that in my eyes, Archer is one of the easier fades in the slate.

Drew Pomeranz
drew-pomeranz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.80 3.32 26.5% 9.3% 46.2% 31.5% 19.1%
2017 27 4.21 3.36 24.3% 9.3% 42.6% 31.7% 21.7%
L30 5 4.77 3.38 22.1% 11.5% 41.8% 30.0% 21.3%

I never thought I’d say this, but I have a lot more interest in Pomeranz than I do in Chris Archer. He has pitched well all year, posting a 4.21 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. He has fared well against his former team, holding the current Rays’ roster to a .302 wOBA with a 31% strikeout rate in 128 plate appearances. Pomeranz is cheap, especially on the two multi-pitcher sites (DraftKings and FantasyDraft).

Quick Breakdown: There are plenty of viable options in tonight’s slate. I wouldn’t use Pomeranz in cash games, but he’s certainly on my radar for tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays have struggled against left-handed pitching all season. Their projected lineup for tonight’s game only has one hitter with an xwOBA over .305 against southpaws, which is truly awful and yet another reason to like Drew Pomeranz as a tournament play. While the Rays do see a favorable ballpark bump playing in Fenway, Pomeranz has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.295 0.250 0.113 26.3% 6.7% 27.5% 60.8% OF $3,700 OF $4,800 CF $9,300
2 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.342 0.292 0.130 27.4% 15.1% 26.7% 45.1% OF $3,500 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.277 0.304 0.163 36.4% 11.5% 21.8% 47.3% 3B $3,400 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.344 0.328 0.213 27.5% 13.4% 22.8% 31.3% 1B $3,400 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
5 Cesar Puello RIGHT 0.000 0.035 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 42.9% 75.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,000 RF $3,900
6 Peter Bourjos RIGHT 0.325 0.263 0.200 37.7% 6.6% 26.4% 47.5% OF $2,200 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
7 Brad Miller LEFT 0.281 0.277 0.147 39.6% 10.5% 26.3% 42.6% 2B $2,500 2B $3,000 2B $6,000
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.314 0.288 0.193 34.0% 4.8% 14.5% 46.8% SS $3,000 SS $2,900 SS $5,700
9 Jesus Sucre RIGHT 0.228 0.278 0.094 28.6% 8.1% 16.2% 28.6% C $2,100 C $2,800 C $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston

Even though I won’t be using Chris Archer in tonight’s slate, I will not be doubling down on my fade by targeting the Red Sox. He is still one of the best pitchers in baseball and he still has an elite strikeout rate. He has also held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.347 0.265 0.153 26.0% 3.1% 11.4% 53.2% 2B $3,700 2B/3B $4,300 3B $8,400
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.329 0.315 0.093 25.8% 9.0% 10.4% 48.1% 2B $2,900 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
3 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.348 0.344 0.183 36.4% 10.2% 16.3% 37.0% OF $3,800 OF $4,700 LF $9,300
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.323 0.327 0.176 35.0% 9.5% 11.3% 40.7% OF $4,200 OF $5,000 RF $9,600
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.328 0.356 0.182 34.4% 8.3% 20.5% 41.7% 1B $3,000 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
6 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.329 0.375 0.203 39.0% 9.9% 21.2% 40.2% 1B $2,900 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
7 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.321 0.266 0.143 30.2% 7.9% 19.9% 46.9% SS $3,400 SS $3,800 SS $7,600
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.311 0.265 0.096 26.6% 5.5% 19.6% 48.0% C $2,300 C $3,200 C $6,400
9 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.308 0.319 0.173 36.7% 8.6% 24.2% 41.7% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 CF $6,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious