MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 5th

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2017-08-06 01:40:55

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Washington at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Washington								Chicago Cubs
			Edwin Jackson							John Lackey
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-150
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.342	0.341	28.5%	13.1%	15.3%	40.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.333	0.350	34.3%	9.2%	19.1%	44.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.383	0.366	35.6%	8.2%	16.0%	38.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.286	0.305	34.5%	5.5%	24.9%	40.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Edwin Jackson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	13	5.23	5.89	16.4%	11.0%	40.2%	33.3%	13.3%
	2017	3	5.62	3.75	13.3%	8.6%	35.9%	29.3%	25.6%
	L30	3	5.11	2.84	15.8%	6.6%	39.3%	30.5%	27.1%

Greetings, everyone! In order for Seth Yates to turn his attention to preseason football, I am going to cover the weekend Grind Downs for now. I’ll have to shake off the rust, but hopefully you find my analysis as useful as what you got from Seth (and Derek of course) on a daily basis. This is a strange slate for a Saturday, with just three early games and 12 late games. DraftKings is using the three games on their early slate, while FanDuel is cutting off the 6:10 start between the Brewers and Rays and offering just a two game early slate. Don’t go wild here; save your bankroll for the later slate.

Of course, the first pitcher I get to break down is… Edwin Jackson! He’s been around seemingly forever, and he has never really been a quality pitcher at the major league level. His already average skill set has eroded with age, and there’s absolutely no appeal here against the Cubs. Don’t be fooled by his tidy ERA; Jackson has benefited from a very lucky BABIP, and it is going to come crashing down at some point. Even on the two game FanDuel slate, there is literally no reason to consider him.

Quick Breakdown: Jackson is not a fantasy option at this stage of his career.

John Lackey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	29	3.83	3.35	24.1%	7.1%	41.0%	34.4%	16.2%
	2017	20	4.48	4.87	19.8%	7.2%	43.4%	34.4%	15.5%
	L30	4	4.70	3.27	16.7%	6.3%	44.8%	23.2%	17.4%

The enigmatic John Lackey takes the hill for the Cubs this afternoon, and he is certainly not having his finest season. After a solid 2016 campaign where he had a massive boost in his strikeout rate, his strikeout rate has dipped back below 20% this year, which is in line with his career mark. He is allowing hard contact at a 34.4% clip for the second straight year, and there is more risk than reward when it comes to targeting him against a dangerous Washington lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Lackey is a solid favorite in this game, but I don’t like his chances for a massive fantasy point total in a dangerous matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

The Nationals have a fine matchup against John Lackey, but they might get somewhat overlooked (as much as a team can get overlooked on this short of a slate, anyway). Lackey’s batted ball profile is relatively splits-neutral, but he has allowed a .374 wOBA to LHBs this year. Daniel Murphy is locked in right now and hit two home runs on Friday afternoon, so he remains a top play here.

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Anthony Rendon, Howie Kendrick

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

The matchup is great against Edwin Jackson, and the only other thing we could ask for is the wind to be blowing out at Wrigley Field. Unfortunately, it seems like we will have a neutral wind today. Despite that, the Cubs are still likely the top offensive squad to target on the small afternoon slate. They have looked like a different unit since the All Star break, and Jackson is not a quality opposing pitcher. Right-handed hitters have posted a .393 wOBA against Jackson this year, but he is basically a splits-neutral guy for his career. There are plenty of fine plays here.

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Dodgers at NY Mets – 4:05 PM ET

LA Dodgers								NY Mets
			Rich Hill							Seth Lugo
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAD-165							9.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.284	0.287	23.5%	7.8%	19.8%	51.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.305	0.355	35.2%	9.6%	13.6%	41.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.254	0.266	30.2%	8.9%	31.2%	39.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.314	0.323	37.4%	4.3%	19.5%	43.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rich Hill
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$12,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	20	3.29	2.12	29.4%	7.5%	45.3%	28.3%	22.3%
	2017	15	3.99	3.35	27.8%	10.2%	38.5%	28.9%	24.2%
	L30	4	2.91	1.88	31.5%	4.4%	40.0%	35.1%	15.8%

It’s been a relatively difficult year for Rich Hill, as he has battled injuries and blisters like they are going out of style. The good news is that he has been pitching much better of late. He has allowed five total runs over his last five starts, with a 40/5 K/BB ratio in that span. Those are the kind of numbers we saw from Hill a year ago, and he checks in as the top pitching option on the short early slate. You almost have to lock him in on the two game FanDuel slate, and he’s hard to pass on for the three game slate on DraftKings because you need two pitchers. I never love targeting Hill, mainly because he rarely pitches deep into games, but we have to lower expectations on this small slate.

Quick Breakdown: It’s never a lot of fun, but Hill is the top pitching choice on the early slate.

Seth Lugo
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$5,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	8	4.66	2.67	17.3%	8.1%	42.8%	38.4%	16.8%
	2017	9	4.73	4.53	15.7%	5.7%	42.6%	34.2%	16.6%
	L30	4	4.37	4.28	16.5%	3.5%	44.4%	40.7%	13.2%

Seth Lugo is your prototypical average major league pitcher. He is nothing more than a back of the rotation innings eater, at best. You could maybe consider him as a DFS option in a favorable matchup, but a matchup against the Dodgers is by no means a favorable matchup. You can pass on Lugo today in all formats, especially since he is unlikely to earn a victory with Hill pitching on the other side.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Lugo in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

The Dodgers are hot, hot, hot as Buster Poindexter would say. Hurray for 1987 music references! I’m fairly certain that a lot of you won’t understand that one, but let’s move on. The Dodgers rank 6th in the league in wOBA and 5th in ISO over the last 30 days of action, and they zipped to an easy 6-0 win over Jacob deGrom in the first start for Yu Darvish last night. Seth Lugo has allowed more hard contact to RHBs this year, but his ground ball rate is lower against LHBs. Given the top to bottom depth of this Dodgers lineup, they are all in play here. The Dodgers rival the Cubs as the top offense on the early slate.

Elite Plays – Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Chris Taylor

Secondary Plays – Yasmani Grandal, Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Strangely, Rich Hill has actually had more problems with left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters this year. That’s rare for a quality LHP, but given the fact that I feel you have to roster Hill on the early slate, I obviously won’t be on any of the Mets hitters. There is no reason to target hitters against your pitchers, no matter how small the slate. You could maybe seek power upside with a guy like Michael Conforto in a GPP, but it’s not something I will be doing.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

Milwaukee at Tampa Bay – 6:10 PM ET

Milwaukee								Tampa Bay
			Zach Davies							Alex Cobb
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TB -135							8.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.334	0.319	32.5%	7.3%	17.9%	42.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.342	0.340	36.0%	8.7%	16.1%	41.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.317	0.311	30.7%	5.4%	18.3%	51.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.313	0.322	36.3%	4.4%	14.9%	51.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zach Davies
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	28	4.06	3.97	19.8%	5.6%	45.5%	33.8%	19.7%
	2017	22	4.74	4.42	16.0%	7.2%	48.9%	28.8%	20.6%
	L30	5	4.40	2.73	19.3%	6.7%	45.4%	23.5%	18.4%

Lots of smart baseball minds expected Davies to take a step forward this year, but it simply hasn’t happened. While he has shown flashes at times, his ERA, SIERA, and xFIP all remain in the mid to upper 4.00 range. He has shown encouraging signs by allowing less hard contact and generating a little more soft contact, but it’s simply hard to dominate with a 16% strikeout rate. The Rays present a boom/bust matchup given the power in their lineup and the high strikeout nature of some of their hitters, but that doesn’t make it any easier to target Davies.

Quick Breakdown: Davies might be in play as a SP #2 on DraftKings for the early only slate, largely because there aren’t a whole lot of other options on a three game slate. I will be avoiding him everywhere else.

Alex Cobb
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	5	4.50	8.59	15.4%	6.7%	52.5%	29.6%	17.3%
	2017	22	4.77	3.89	15.4%	6.2%	46.2%	37.4%	14.4%
	L30	5	4.72	3.51	13.2%	5.4%	51.4%	37.1%	19.1%

Alex Cobb was expected to be a top tier starter when he first broke into the major leagues, but he has never fully reached that potential. His numbers this year have taken a step backwards, as his has a 4.77 SIERA and has allowed hard contact a whopping 37.4% of the time. His strikeout rate is all the way down to 15.4%, so this sets up as a good matchup for the Brewers. Milwaukee strikes out more than any other team in the league against RHP, but the concern over strikeouts is lower against Cobb. There’s little upside and lots of risk if you are considering him as a pitching option.

Quick Breakdown: It’s hard to endorse Cobb against any team at this point. If you are considering a pitcher from this game, I prefer Davies on the other side, though that’s not a ringing endorsement for either guy.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

While the Cubs have surged in the National League Central since the All Star break, the Brewers offense has gone largely silent. They rank among the bottom teams in the league in wOBA against RHP since the first of July, and a team that is built like the Brewers are is going to be prone to cold streaks. Still, I love this matchup against a scuffling Alex Cobb, and Cobb is not a pitcher who will overpower anyone. If you want to fade the popular Cubs and Dodgers on the early slate, the Brewers are your lower-owned pivot squad. Both left and right-handed hitters have hit Cobb hard this year, but the batted ball profile slightly favors LHBs.

Elite Plays – Eric Thames, Travis Shaw

Secondary Plays – Jesus Aguilar, Domingo Santana

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

The Rays are a prototypical boom/bust stack, and that will apply again today against Zach Davies. If you are looking to gain an advantage with the splits, there’s not much to be had there. Davies’ numbers are about as splits neutral as they come, so I would simply stick to the hitters in the upper portion of the batting order. Especially with Tim Beckham gone, the Rays lineup really drops off in the bottom half.

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson

Secondary Plays – Logan Morrison, Evan Longoria

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Detroit at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Detroit								Baltimore
			Drew VerHagen							Wade Miley
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TBD
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.434	0.359	47.1%	7.1%	11.9%	52.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.294	0.326	35.4%	10.4%	19.6%	55.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.398	0.360	26.9%	6.4%	9.5%	61.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.367	0.356	33.5%	8.9%	19.0%	47.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew VerHagen
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,000	Salary:		$8,000
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		30 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	0	4.49	7.11	11.1%	7.8%	59.7%	29.2%	19.4%
	2017	0	5.03	6.75	6.7%	0.0%	50.0%	64.3%	7.1%
	L30	0	5.03	6.75	6.7%	0.0%	50.0%	64.3%	7.1%

All right, it’s time to turn our attention to the surprisingly large 12 game evening slate. Drew VerHagen will draw the start for the Tigers tonight, and he has been up and down between the big club and the minor leagues for the better part of the last few seasons. He has made several appearances for the Tigers out of the bullpen, but he has only made one major league start, and that was way back in 2014. In 54 1/3 major league innings, his career numbers include a 4.47 ERA and 4.37 SIERA. VerHagen is getting a chance thanks to Michael Fulmer heading to the disabled list. I would not expect him to pitch deep into this game, as he will likely have a quick hook as he has been pitching in relief for the big club over the last few weeks after starting 19 games at AAA.

Quick Breakdown: In just his second career start and with a likely pitch count, there are better options than VerHagen on the night slate.

Wade Miley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$5,400	Salary:		$10,800
	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	30	4.21	5.37	19.3%	6.9%	47.3%	33.3%	17.3%
	2017	22	5.06	5.60	18.8%	12.4%	50.6%	34.6%	17.3%
	L30	5	5.45	6.84	16.1%	12.1%	46.9%	34.5%	12.6%

After a reasonably good start to the 2017 campaign, it has been all downhill from there for Wade Miley. His walk rate has ballooned all the way to 12.4% this year, he is allowing a ton of hard contact, and his SIERA has risen to over 5.00. His splits are extreme, and Detroit will likely send out an all-RHB lineup against him. That’s enough to keep Miley out of the fantasy conversation.

Quick Breakdown: This could be one of the higher scoring games of the night. Avoid Miley in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

I mentioned Miley’s extreme splits above, and he has really struggled against right-handed hitters this year. RHBs have posted a .377 wOBA against him this year to go along with a healthy 23.5% line drive rate and 35% hard hit rate. While Miley does sometimes limit damage with a reasonably solid ground ball rate, I still like the top hitters in this Detroit offense tonight. They are playing well with wins in four straight games and six of their last seven, and the hot streak could easily continue in this matchup.

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, James McCann

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Mikie Mahtook, Nick Castellanos

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

While Drew VerHagen doesn’t necessarily profile as a pitcher we like to pick on, it’s often more difficult for pitchers to make the giant leap to a starter at the major league level. VerHagen had a 4.90 ERA in his 19 AAA starts this year, so it’s certainly possible that the Orioles put up some big numbers tonight. Their offense has largely been disappointing this year, but they qualify as a reasonable team to stack and/or pick one-off plays from this evening.

Elite Plays – Jonathan Schoop

Secondary Plays – Chris Davis, Manny Machado, Adam Jones

Stackability – YELLOW

San Diego at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

San Diego								Pittsburgh
			Dinelson Lamet							Gerrit Cole
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-168							8.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.410	0.336	39.5%	10.3%	24.6%	35.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.357	0.329	37.5%	6.2%	22.4%	40.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.226	0.287	39.1%	7.3%	35.5%	36.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.289	0.299	24.9%	6.8%	18.7%	51.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dinelson Lamet
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$16,400
	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2017	11	3.59	5.62	30.0%	8.8%	36.0%	39.3%	14.0%
	L30	4	4.29	6.10	26.6%	11.7%	35.1%	38.6%	12.3%

Dinelson Lamet made quite the splash when he first arrived at the major league level, and his strikeout upside was certainly evident from the start. He has always posted high strikeout numbers in the minor leagues, so there is theoretical fantasy appeal here. The problem is that the Padres are very cautious with his pitch counts, and he has lasted seven innings just once in 11 major league starts. That limits the upside, especially for a guy who relies on the strikeout, as that naturally increases the average pitches per plate appearance. Lamet just pitched against these same Pirates in his last start, and he allowed just two runs and two hits over six solid innings. I understand the appeal of rostering him, especially on a slate that lacks premier pitching options. The one problem is that the Pirates are the fourth most difficult team to strike out in all of baseball, so this isn’t an ideal matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Lamet is certainly in play on tonight’s slate, especially since the pitching is relatively thin. I don’t love the price tag on either FanDuel or DraftKings, but we have to lower our gloval pitching expectations some on this evening’s slate.

Gerrit Cole
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$11,000	Salary:		$21,300
	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	21	4.24	3.88	19.4%	7.1%	45.6%	30.1%	21.3%
	2017	22	4.04	3.97	21.4%	5.9%	47.2%	31.4%	24.0%
	L30	5	3.47	2.25	26.2%	5.4%	50.0%	22.7%	29.6%

Gerrit Cole is a fine real life pitcher, but from a fantasy perspective, I feel like he is often vastly over-rated. His ownership is always much higher than I expect, and that will certainly be the case tonight. We have no true aces on the mound tonight, and Cole is pitching against the Padres. When you combine A + B, you get a hefty price tag on Mr. Cole. There is absolutely no way I can justify paying $11,000 on DraftKings for a guy who is average to slightly above average in most statistical categories. Look, there’s nothing wrong with a pitcher hat has a 31% hard contact rate allowed, a 4.04 SIERA, and a 21.4% strikeout rate, but that pitcher should not cost $11,000 on DraftKings against any team. I know the Padres are terrible, and I won’t talk you out of him, but I love the idea of a GPP fade here.

Quick Breakdown: Regrettably, Cole is a top pitching option on the night slate. That tells you about the quality of arms we have going, and it also reminds you how bad the San Diego offense is. I will likely fade Cole due to ownership in GPPs, but he is more viable at $9,600 on FanDuel than he is at an inflated $11,000 on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Although I’m not a Gerrit Cole fan, there is no reason to take the San Diego offense seriously on a slate of this size. There are plenty of gas cans on the mound tonight, and there are plenty of offenses that you can consider. The Padres are not one of them.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Dinelson Lamet has good stuff, so I rarely target hitters against him. However, left-handed hitters have been a problem, as they have posted a whopping .410 wOBA against Lamet so far this year. RHBs have comparatively logged a figure of just .226. Those are extreme splits, and while some of that is obviously due to sample size, LHBs are clearly the place to go if you want to target hitters against Lamet. I’m not going anywhere else here.

Elite Plays – Josh Bell

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – ORANGE

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