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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 22nd - Page Three

by Aaron Hendrix (thehazyone) Last Updated 2018-04-22 18:03:22

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Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Chicago Cubs at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Colorado
cubsmlb Jose Quintana coloradomlb German Marquez
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-123 10.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.256 0.260 26.5% 4.0% 25.1% 47.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.309 0.310 30.1% 8.8% 18.2% 48.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 0.334 35.1% 9.4% 25.2% 45.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.366 0.337 36.5% 6.7% 23.5% 41.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Quintana
jose-quintana-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 13 of 29 Salary Rank: 14 of 29 Salary Rank: 12 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.80 4.15 26.2% 7.7% 44.8% 32.6% 18.2%
2018 3 5.64 8.16 13.4% 14.9% 53.3% 39.6% 14.6%

Jose Quintana has struggled in 2018 after a promising 2017 campaign.

2018 (14.1 IP)
.318 wOBA LH 0.00 HR/9 0.0% K 16.7% BB
.386 wOBA RH 0.77 HR/9 16.4% K 14.6% BB

2017
.252 wOBA LH 0.22 HR/9 27.0% K 3.1% BB
.314 wOBA RH 1.35 HR/9 26.0% K 8.9% BB

Quick Breakdown:

I might be interested in the breakout game for Quintana most days. Not in Coors Field with a projected run total topping five.

German Marquez
german-marquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 24 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 4.27 4.39 21.0% 7.0% 45.2% 34.5% 17.7%
2018 4 5.05 4.34 19.5% 14.6% 45.3% 20.8% 22.6%

German Marquez has had terrible control to start the 2018 season after a 2017 season that saw him give up over 2 HR/9 to RH hitters.

2018 (18.2 IP)
.186 wOBA 0.73 HR/9 18.0% K 16.0% BB
.492 wOBA 0.00 HR/9 21.9% K 12.5% BB

2017
.326 wOBA 0.68 HR/9 18.2% K 7.8% BB
.355 wOBA 2.06 HR/9 23.7% K 6.2% BB

Quick Breakdown:

It’s Coors Field. Marquez is not good. It’s as easy as that.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.343 0.340 0.264 34.4% 10.9% 34.2% 39.6% OF $3,100 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,100
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.397 0.367 0.246 31.9% 13.2% 19.8% 38.1% 3B $5,300 3B $5,500 IF/OF $10,900
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.376 0.408 0.226 34.6% 13.8% 12.9% 39.6% 1B $4,200 1B $5,300 1B $10,100
4 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.348 0.324 0.203 34.8% 7.7% 24.8% 52.5% C $3,600 C $4,500 IF/OF $8,900
5 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.348 0.362 0.279 37.3% 11.6% 29.9% 41.2% OF $4,000 OF $4,800 IF/OF $9,100
6 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.328 0.297 0.220 30.8% 6.1% 28.6% 48.1% 2B $4,700 2B $4,700 2B $9,200
7 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.284 0.294 0.160 33.6% 6.8% 22.8% 38.5% SS $3,400 SS $3,900 SS $7,600
8 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.320 0.345 0.139 27.0% 10.6% 10.8% 46.4% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 RF $6,900
9 Jose Quintana LEFT 0.068 0.074 0.000 0.0% 3.4% 51.7% 66.7% P $7,200 P $7,000 P $13,600

When playing in Coors Field against bad pitchers, it’s more of who not to play than who to play. Marquez is most vulnerable to RH pop so Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, and Javier Baez stand out, but I’m certainly not going to ignore LH bats like Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ, or Kyle Schwarber against a RHP in Colorado. Addison Russell and Jason Heyward are the two I’m least likely to use in a team stack.

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez

Secondary Plays – Willson Contreras, Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.421 0.409 0.220 37.6% 10.1% 10.1% 54.3% 2B $4,200 2B $4,600 2B $9,300
2 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.403 0.360 0.229 34.2% 7.3% 16.5% 50.5% OF $5,300 OF $5,600 CF $10,500
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.529 0.457 0.405 38.6% 10.4% 10.4% 25.5% 3B $4,900 3B $5,200 3B $10,500
4 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.319 0.273 0.162 26.7% 6.2% 22.5% 65.6% 1B $3,400 1B/OF $4,100 LF $8,200
5 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.234 0.233 0.096 35.2% 3.7% 29.9% 57.4% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 RF $9,000
6 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.411 0.349 0.250 31.5% 15.1% 22.7% 46.6% C $3,300 C $3,600 C $7,300
7 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.416 0.347 0.344 48.5% 11.6% 34.8% 27.8% SS $3,700 SS $4,300 SS $8,700
8 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.345 0.307 0.092 26.0% 4.6% 17.6% 46.9% OF $3,200 OF $3,200 LF $6,400
9 German Marquez RIGHT 0.250 0.138 0.083 0.0% 0.0% 28.6% 87.5% P $5,800 P $5,400 P $10,800

I definitely have no interest in LH bats against Quintana, so no Charlie Blackmon or Carlos Gonzalez for me today. The rest of the top seven are all in play though with Nolan Arenado the best of that group and I particularly like the value you can get from Chris Iannetta and Trevor Story at the bottom of the order.

Elite Plays – Nolan Arenado

Secondary Plays – Chris Iannetta, Trevor Story, DJ LeMahieu

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET

Boston Oakland
bostonmlb David Price oaklandmlb Daniel Mengden
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-120 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.225 0.269 20.9% 4.6% 16.1% 55.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.274 0.319 27.2% 1.6% 18.0% 34.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.293 0.319 37.5% 9.4% 25.5% 35.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.300 0.371 33.0% 7.0% 16.8% 43.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

David Price
david-price-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $9,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 9 of 29 Salary Rank: 5 of 29 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 11 4.05 3.38 24.0% 7.6% 39.9% 32.9% 20.7%
2018 4 4.46 2.25 21.3% 11.3% 42.6% 35.2% 22.2%

I’m going to brief on these last four games as none of them are on a main slate. David Price pitches for thr Red Sox today. He’s been better thus far this season then he was in 2017.

2018 (20 IP)
.210 wOBA LH 0.00 HR/9 5.9% K 0.0% BB
.263 wOBA RH 0.57 HR/9 25.4% K 14.3% BB

2017 (only 74.2 IP)
.228 wOBA LH 0.00 HR/9 18.6% K 5.7% BB
.301 wOBA RH 1.24 HR/9 25.5% K 8.1% BB

Quick Breakdown:

Vegas doesn’t seem to like Price that much today as they’ve given Oakland a 4.38 run total. Perhaps that’s because of the 8 RH bats in the A’s lineup, but I think Price has some upside and as he showed last year his strikeout ability is much greater against hitters from the right side of the plate. If you’re playing these smaller slates, I think Price is fine to use.

Daniel Mengden
daniel-mengden-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $4,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 27 of 29 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 7 4.68 3.14 17.2% 5.3% 39.2% 25.2% 18.3%
2018 4 3.85 4.50 17.7% 2.9% 39.2% 38.3% 17.3%

Daniel Mengden was a middling pitcher last year and is trending to be the same this season.

2018 (24 IP)
.208 wOBA LH 0.77 HR/9 11.6% K 0.0% BB
.377 wOBA RH 0.73 HR/9 22.0% K 5.1% BB

Career
.319 wOBA LH 0.95 HR/9 19.9% K 7.0% BB
.330 wOBA RH 1.24 HR/9 19.2% K 7.9% BB

Quick Breakdown:

One day after the Red Sox were no-hit, I am sure they are going to be looking to rebound. I think they will so I have no interest in Mengden (and probably wouldn’t have even if the Red Sox scored 20 runs last night).

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.346 0.362 0.204 37.6% 10.0% 11.6% 38.6% OF $5,200 OF $5,600 N/A N/A
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.347 0.347 0.178 34.9% 10.5% 16.0% 38.8% OF $4,400 OF $4,500 N/A N/A
3 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.336 0.364 0.190 35.0% 7.7% 20.2% 40.6% 1B $4,300 1B $4,700 N/A N/A
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.334 0.388 0.213 39.7% 9.7% 19.6% 41.2% 1B $3,400 1B $3,100 N/A N/A
5 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.319 0.303 0.202 36.6% 7.1% 21.6% 48.2% 3B $3,900 3B $4,000 N/A N/A
6 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.354 0.273 0.163 25.8% 3.5% 11.3% 51.8% SS $3,200 2B/SS $3,900 N/A N/A
7 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.306 0.326 0.163 35.1% 8.7% 22.5% 45.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.312 0.295 0.095 25.3% 5.2% 18.6% 46.7% C $2,000 C $2,900 N/A N/A
9 Brock Holt LEFT 0.249 0.270 0.071 20.9% 11.0% 20.2% 52.7% 2B $2,500 2B/SS $3,000 N/A N/A

Any of the top six of the projected lineup are fine. Mitch Moreland is cheap and batting in the middle of the order and is my favorite.

Elite Plays – Mitch Moreland

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Hanley Ramirez, Rafael Devers

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.304 0.301 0.142 39.1% 9.7% 25.4% 38.4% SS $3,400 SS $3,300 N/A N/A
2 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.279 0.245 0.163 25.9% 2.4% 26.2% 29.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,000 N/A N/A
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.331 0.376 0.134 31.2% 10.7% 18.6% 39.2% 2B $3,900 2B $4,400 N/A N/A
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.331 0.396 0.239 49.5% 14.8% 29.0% 43.0% OF $4,000 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.344 0.326 0.194 39.1% 10.8% 31.5% 31.3% 3B $3,700 3B $4,200 N/A N/A
6 Matt Olson LEFT 0.284 0.326 0.190 32.6% 8.3% 27.8% 48.8% 1B $3,400 1B $4,200 N/A N/A
7 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.272 0.310 0.075 21.3% 11.0% 9.6% 56.5% C $2,000 C $3,200 N/A N/A
8 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.301 0.359 0.086 41.3% 13.5% 18.8% 52.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
9 Chad Pinder RIGHT 0.346 0.377 0.194 33.8% 10.3% 25.2% 40.3% OF $2,000 OF/SS $3,200 N/A N/A

While this A’s lineup will load up RH bats against Price, Khris Davis and Matt Chapman are the only two I have moderate interest in due to their success against LHP. They could hit a home run or very possibly strike out three times (or both).

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Khris Davis, Matt Chapman

Stackability – ORANGE

San Francisco at LA Angels – 4:07 PM ET

San Francisco LA Angels
sanfranciscomlb Johnny Cueto laangelsmlb Jaime Barria
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAA-105 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.331 0.364 37.2% 7.3% 20.6% 38.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.058 0.109 0.0% 8.3% 8.3% 30.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.328 0.327 30.1% 8.0% 21.7% 41.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.527 0.443 33.3% 25.0% 25.0% 0.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Johnny Cueto
johnny-cueto-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $8,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 7 of 29 Salary Rank: 7 of 29 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.49 4.52 21.0% 8.2% 39.4% 34.6% 16.6%
2018 3 3.31 0.45 22.5% 2.8% 43.1% 28.9% 28.9%

Johnny Cueto has pitched 20 innings this season giving up just 11 hits, 2 walks, and 1 run while striking out 16 (including 11 in his last start). He looks to be recovered from the injury-plagued 2017 season that also saw him extremely unlucky with a .322 BABIP. An improved defense with the additions of Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria also helps.

2018 (20 IP)
.166 wOBA LH 0.00 HR/9 20.0% K 0.0% BB
.196 wOBA RH 0.00 HR/9 25.8% K 6.5% BB

2017
.351 wOBA LH 1.30 HR/9 20.7% K 8.2% BB
.342 wOBA RH 1.39 HR/9 21.3% K 8.2% BB

Career
.301 wOBA LH 0.88 HR/9 21.1% K 8.0% BB
.301 wOBA RH 0.93 HR/9 19.6% K 5.8% BB

Quick Breakdown:

Vegas doesn’t like Cueto nearly as much as I do – they think we’ll see more of the 2017 version than what we’ve seen thus far this season. Cueto, however, is my favorite SP of the last four games as I think most will flock to Patrick Corbin and you can get him at much lower ownership. Facing an Angels lineup that will likely have 7 RH bats, I like his chances at having a strong outing.

Jaime Barria
jaime-baria-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $6,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 24 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 1 6.47 1.80 15.0% 15.0% 23.1% 7.7% 38.5%

Barria has made one major league start where he gave up only one hit in five innings. It was a home run, however, and he also walked three batters. He doesn’t have overwhelming velocity or great secondary pitches, but is able to use a high arm slot to create unique off speed pitches which he couples with good control to keep hitters off balance.

Quick Breakdown:

The Giants aren’t a good hitting team for the most part, but they also don’t strike out much with no one in their lineup having a K rate higher than 24%. He’s cheap and if you need a SP2 viable, but outside of punting (which I don’t think you need to do on this slate), I’ll pass.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Gregor Blanco LEFT 0.335 0.304 0.122 28.2% 14.2% 21.8% 43.9% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 N/A N/A
2 Joe Panik LEFT 0.347 0.335 0.168 26.8% 8.6% 8.4% 40.9% 2B $2,900 2B $3,100 N/A N/A
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.326 0.340 0.160 33.6% 9.9% 18.5% 43.4% OF $3,500 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.344 0.354 0.113 30.7% 9.2% 11.5% 46.7% C $3,100 1B/C $4,000 N/A N/A
5 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.371 0.407 0.246 41.3% 16.5% 23.5% 25.8% 1B $2,600 1B $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.314 0.314 0.161 34.3% 4.7% 15.7% 43.0% 3B $3,100 3B $3,200 N/A N/A
7 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.308 0.324 0.154 34.7% 7.3% 21.5% 47.3% SS $2,000 SS $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Gorkys Hernandez RIGHT 0.311 0.294 0.083 23.6% 9.2% 19.4% 50.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,800 N/A N/A
9 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.321 0.308 0.120 35.9% 7.5% 23.1% 46.5% OF $2,300 OF $2,700 N/A N/A

My main interest is in Brandon Belt who hits RHP very well. Joe Panik and Gregor Blanco are solid additions if you want to stack LH bats against the youngster.

Elite Plays – Brandon Belt

Secondary Plays – Joe Panik, Gregor Blanco

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.301 0.320 0.157 34.9% 8.5% 14.5% 34.4% 2B $3,800 2B $4,200 N/A N/A
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.442 0.435 0.347 40.8% 17.1% 18.4% 35.0% OF $5,100 OF $5,500 N/A N/A
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.355 0.350 0.238 39.9% 11.2% 29.5% 36.3% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
4 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.301 0.331 0.169 35.4% 4.9% 14.2% 42.9% 1B $3,100 1B $3,800 N/A N/A
5 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.316 0.330 0.145 34.2% 10.4% 22.2% 43.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
6 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.380 0.339 0.237 31.0% 11.0% 15.0% 38.7% SS $3,300 2B/3B $4,100 N/A N/A
7 Luis Valbuena LEFT 0.321 0.324 0.238 35.3% 11.0% 26.5% 33.5% 3B $2,600 1B/3B $3,300 N/A N/A
8 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.323 0.307 0.142 31.4% 5.0% 9.5% 48.7% SS $3,200 SS $3,500 N/A N/A
9 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.278 0.296 0.153 26.5% 2.1% 22.8% 48.4% C $2,200 C $2,700 N/A N/A

I like Cueto today, so conversely I am not going to like the Angels. That said, Mike Trout is always in play regardless of who is pitching (he often does better against top pitchers).

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mike Trout

Stackability – RED

San Diego at Arizona – 4:10 PM ET

San Diego Arizona
sandiegomlb Joey Lucchesi arizonamlb Patrick Corbin
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI-155 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.241 0.240 21.4% 4.4% 34.8% 57.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.264 0.263 25.8% 5.9% 30.5% 53.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.265 0.300 39.0% 4.9% 27.9% 38.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.333 0.323 32.9% 7.5% 21.2% 50.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Joey Lucchesi
joey-lucchesi-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $6,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 6 of 29 Salary Rank: 17 of 29 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 4 2.68 1.66 29.8% 4.8% 43.4% 34.6% 18.2%

Joey Lucchesi has been impressive thus far in his rookie campaign with a crazy high strikeout rate coming off a 14% swinging strike rate. He uses some on the mound mannerisms to create a deceptive look for hitters and they have yet to figure it out.

2018 (21.2 IP)
.241 wOBA LH 0.00 HR/9 34.8% K 4.4% BB
.264 wOBA RH 0.56 HR/9 27.9% K 4.9% BB

Quick Breakdown:

I like Lucchesi, but think the matchup here will catch up to him as the likes of Paul Goldschmidt get to him. He’s viable on DraftKings as a SP2 because of his price and limited options, but I don’t love it.

Patrick Corbin
patrick-corbin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $11,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 3 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.12 4.03 21.6% 7.4% 50.4% 31.6% 18.5%
2018 4 1.90 1.65 37.0% 5.0% 56.1% 31.0% 22.4%

Patrick Corbin has had a great start to 2018 with two great starts where he struck out 20 in 16 1/3 innings without allowing a run and two average starts where he gave up 5 runs in 11 innings (but did strike out 17). He has struck out at least eight in all of his starts thanks to a reliance on his best pitch, a biting slider. He also gets a

2018
.163 wOBA LH 0.00 HR/9 28.0% K 8.0% BB
.198 wOBA RH 0.87 HR/9 40.0% K 4.0% BB

2017 (.352 wOBA 1st half, .310 wOBA 2nd half)
.278 wOBA LH 1.23 HR/9 30.9% K 5.6% BB
.349 wOBA RH 1.24 HR/9 19.0% K 7.9% BB

Quick Breakdown:

He’ll be the chalk and by a wide margin, so there’s merit to fading him in GPPs. He’s got the best matchup on the table though and as we’ve seen thus far this season, the upside is tremendous.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Pirela RIGHT 0.391 0.331 0.243 41.7% 7.5% 22.5% 45.1% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
2 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.337 0.355 0.207 52.6% 15.1% 28.5% 39.2% OF $3,100 1B/OF $4,100 N/A N/A
3 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.321 0.319 0.151 25.1% 6.8% 13.6% 64.5% 1B $3,000 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
4 Hunter Renfroe RIGHT 0.428 0.388 0.353 39.8% 9.6% 19.2% 27.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
5 Christian Villanueva RIGHT 0.673 0.489 0.647 41.7% 5.6% 27.8% 41.7% 3B $3,900 3B $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Franchy Cordero LEFT 0.245 0.230 0.107 50.0% 3.4% 48.3% 64.3% OF $2,600 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
7 Austin Hedges RIGHT 0.249 0.265 0.133 33.7% 4.4% 28.9% 36.0% C $2,000 C $2,800 N/A N/A
8 Carlos Asuaje LEFT 0.250 0.279 0.051 27.4% 9.0% 15.3% 46.3% 2B $2,200 2B $2,900 N/A N/A
9 Joey Lucchesi LEFT 0.000 0.086 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 100.0% P $8,400 P $6,600 N/A N/A

While Corbin has been successful this season, he was vulnerable to RH bats last season and I think a good contrarian play on this small slate would be to stack the RH power bats of the Padres hoping Corbin struggles. Hunter Renfroe and Christian Villaneuva are clearly the two best options from the Padres projected lineup – Villaneuva has a laughable (in a good way), but unsustainable .647 ISO against LHP.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Hunter Renfroe, Christian Villaneuva

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.316 0.308 0.115 22.1% 6.9% 17.2% 60.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
2 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.331 0.319 0.165 37.0% 11.0% 14.7% 60.0% 2B $3,200 2B/SS $3,600 N/A N/A
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.431 0.448 0.320 50.0% 15.6% 16.7% 44.4% 1B $4,500 1B $5,100 N/A N/A
4 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.353 0.336 0.264 33.3% 5.1% 11.4% 47.9% OF $3,900 OF $4,800 N/A N/A
5 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.280 0.248 0.138 27.2% 5.2% 25.0% 40.5% OF $2,400 2B/OF $3,300 N/A N/A
6 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.277 0.284 0.180 31.8% 11.8% 25.5% 44.4% 3B $2,400 2B/3B $3,100 N/A N/A
7 Nick Ahmed RIGHT 0.398 0.293 0.224 35.9% 9.5% 18.9% 43.4% SS $2,800 SS $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Jeff Mathis RIGHT 0.261 0.259 0.132 43.8% 11.7% 35.0% 37.5% C $2,100 C $2,200 N/A N/A
9 Patrick Corbin LEFT 0.114 0.058 0.053 33.3% 0.0% 60.9% 50.0% P $9,800 P $11,400 N/A N/A

Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock are both elite hitters against LHP and are two of the top options for me on this small late slate. Nick Ahmed would interest me more if he batted higher in the order and Ketel Marte isn’t as viable due to the ability of Lucchesi to keep runners from stealing. As such, I’m not in love with stacking this team, but do love using the two RH power bats as one off’s.

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Plays – A.J. Pollock

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington at LA Dodgers – 8:05 PM ET

Washington LA Dodgers
washingtonmlb Jeremy Hellickson ladodgersmlb Alex Wood
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-170 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.338 0.355 33.0% 7.4% 13.8% 29.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.266 0.260 17.7% 4.7% 23.2% 58.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.339 0.347 30.6% 6.1% 13.8% 39.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.258 0.277 31.4% 5.8% 25.1% 51.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeremy Hellickson
jeremy-hellickson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 27 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 5.37 5.43 13.8% 6.8% 34.9% 32.0% 19.9%
2018 1 4.67 3.86 14.3% 4.8% 31.3% 23.5% 35.3%


The last game of the night sees the homer prone Jeremy Hellickson take the mound for the Nationals. He had one subpar start thus far in 2018 after a fairly bad 2017 campaign.

2017
.340 wOBA LH 2.01 HR/9 13.5% K 7.4% BB
.336 wOBA RH 1.84 HR/9 14.1% K 6.2% BB

Quick Breakdown:

He gives up nearly 2 HR/9. I think that’s bad yes?

Alex Wood
alex-wood-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: Salary:
Salary Rank: 5 of 29 Salary Rank: of 29 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 3.57 2.72 24.6% 6.2% 53.0% 27.7% 20.3%
2018 4 2.60 3.91 24.4% 1.1% 56.9% 26.9% 19.4%

Alex Wood started off great in 2017 with a .214 wOBA in the first half of the season, but was disappointing in the second half with a .321 wOBA allowed. He’s been effective thus far this season with a 25%ish K rate, a ridiculously low walk rate (something he was excellent at last year) and not allowing much hard contact at all.

2018 (23 IP)
.267 wOBA LH 0.00 HR/9 26.1% K 0.0% BB
.197 wOBA RH 0.53 HR/9 23.9% K 1.5% BB

2017 (.214 wOBA 1st half .321 wOBA 2nd half)
.265 wOBA LH 0.66 HR/9 22.8% K 5.4% BB
.267 wOBA RH 0.97 HR/9 25.3% K 6.5% BB

Quick Breakdown:

I don’t like him as much as Corbin or Cueto, but he’s certainly a good pivot off of Corbin if you’re playing a slate where you can roster one of the two.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.300 0.295 0.075 28.7% 10.1% 16.0% 50.6% SS $3,800 N/A N/A
2 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.440 0.412 0.313 37.1% 16.7% 13.0% 29.9% 3B $3,100 N/A N/A
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.358 0.314 0.164 31.3% 10.5% 26.3% 50.0% OF $5,000 N/A N/A
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.407 0.398 0.295 42.6% 9.6% 17.2% 43.5% 1B $2,900 N/A N/A
5 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.378 0.416 0.180 36.7% 9.1% 19.1% 46.8% 2B $3,000 N/A N/A
6 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.299 0.273 0.138 17.9% 10.0% 27.8% 44.6% C $2,300 N/A N/A
7 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.338 0.321 0.177 29.0% 5.8% 20.4% 42.3% 2B $2,200 N/A N/A
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.323 0.301 0.176 31.3% 5.6% 32.4% 47.8% OF $2,200 N/A N/A
9 Jeremy Hellickson RIGHT 0.125 0.219 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 42.9% 50.0% P $5,600 N/A N/A

The RH bats of Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, and Howie Kendrick are normally in play whenever a southpaw takes the mound, but Alex Wood does a very good job of keeping the ball in the yard which limits the Nationals upside. Rendon and Zimmerman are still worth a look as secondary options though because of their absurd numbers against LHP. It’s definitely not a team I would stack though.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman

Stackability – RED

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.351 0.338 0.209 31.8% 8.5% 24.7% 40.5% OF $2,700 N/A N/A
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.346 0.389 0.161 41.8% 12.0% 19.7% 43.1% SS $3,500 N/A N/A
3 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.338 0.348 0.212 35.7% 4.3% 24.0% 47.1% OF $2,500 N/A N/A
4 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.384 0.353 0.303 42.4% 12.2% 26.3% 38.4% 1B $3,800 N/A N/A
5 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.341 0.318 0.240 39.1% 7.6% 26.3% 40.7% C $3,700 N/A N/A
6 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.369 0.372 0.249 35.6% 9.6% 18.8% 45.2% OF $2,900 N/A N/A
7 Chase Utley LEFT 0.331 0.336 0.166 37.0% 10.0% 15.2% 44.2% 2B $2,700 N/A N/A
8 Kike Hernandez RIGHT 0.225 0.241 0.109 32.8% 10.1% 28.2% 40.4% 3B $2,300 N/A N/A
9 Alex Wood LEFT 0.073 0.114 0.000 14.3% 4.4% 48.9% 81.3% P $8,600 N/A N/A

All of the Dodgers power hitters are in play against Jeremy Hellickson. That would be the top six of the projected lineup. Cody Bellinger is the obvious, by-the-numbers, play with a .303 ISO against RHP.

Elite Plays – Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager

Secondary Plays – Chris Taylor, Matt Kemp, Yasmani Grandiel, Yasiel Puig

Stackability – GREEN

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About the Author

thehazyone
Aaron Hendrix (thehazyone)

Aaron Hendrix is a former professional poker player who made the transition from season long fantasy sports to DFS in October of 2014. He used to cover poker tournaments for a living until stepping into his current role at RotoGrinders. He can be found on Twitter at @aaronhendrix