MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 22nd

by Aaron Hendrix (thehazyone) Last Updated 2018-04-23 01:10:41

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Cleveland at Baltimore – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cleveland								Baltimore
			Corey Kluber							Andrew Cashner
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-215							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.246	0.264	30.6%	6.2%	31.9%	44.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.327	0.341	29.3%	11.8%	14.4%	36.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.225	0.246	28.3%	3.4%	35.2%	44.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.294	0.339	28.9%	7.3%	12.4%	56.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Corey Kluber
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,500	Salary:		$12,800	Salary:		$25,100
	Salary Rank:		1 of 29	Salary Rank:		1 of 29	Salary Rank:		1 of 29
	2017	29	2.68	2.25	34.1%	4.6%	44.5%	28.9%	24.4%
	2018	4	2.70	1.52	30.3%	5.5%	43.5%	32.9%	17.1%

I’m back for another Sunday MLB Grind Down and we have a full slate of games today. FanDuel is only including the first nine of the day on their main slate so you won’t get any Coors Field goodness there. DraftKings, however, is including the two 3 pm ET games so we’ll be able to utilize Coors Field bats there. The last four games of the day (all those starting after 4 pm ET) are only available on shorter slates. I’ll still analyze those games, but the analysis will be briefer.

We get things started with Corey Kluber and the Indians traveling to Baltimore to face the Orioles.

2018 (29.2 IP)
.212 wOBA LH 0.71 HR/9 36.0% K 8.0% BB
.193 wOBA RH 0.53 HR/9 25.4% K 3.4% BB

2017 (.218 wOBA at home .266 on road)
.251 wOBA LH 0.95 HR/9 31.3% K 6.0% BB
.230 wOBA RH 0.91 HR/9 36.6% K 3.4% BB

Quick Breakdown:

The Orioles have the lowest projected run total of the day. Corey Kluber strikes out batters at an extremely high rate (30%+ to both sides of the plate last season). Baltimore has five batters in their projected lineup with a 25%+ K rate. In case you haven’t figured it out yet… he’s a great play. The only downside is the price. $12,800 at DraftKings is a lot to pay. He’s a bit more affordable at FanDuel at $11,500. If you can find value stacks and options for your hitters, then he’s a great option, but I think there are enough good pitching options at lower price points that you don’t have to just jam him in there.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Andrew Cashner
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$13,100
	Salary Rank:		13 of 29	Salary Rank:		19 of 29	Salary Rank:		13 of 29
	2017	28	5.52	3.40	12.2%	9.1%	48.6%	28.4%	18.5%
	2018	4	4.44	3.00	21.7%	11.3%	39.7%	34.4%	10.9%

Andrew Cashner has gotten off to a rough start this season after a average 2017 in which he was able to successfully limit damage to hitters for the most part.

2018 (24 IP)
.436 wOBA LH 2.79 HR/9 28.9% K 11.1% BB
.259 wOBA RH 1.26 HR/9 15.4% K 11.5% BB

2017
.311 wOBA LH 1.06 HR/9 12.5% K 11.9% BB
.298 wOBA RH 0.60 HR/9 12.0% K 6.7% BB

Quick Breakdown:

While his wOBA allowed last season to both sides of the plate wasn’t terrible, he has poor control, can’t strikeout batters and has been getting smashed thus far this season. He’s laughably priced as the 13th of 29 SP on FanDuel. Easy avoid for me today.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.340	0.362	0.236	33.7%	8.2%	13.9%	39.3%	SS	$4,300	SS	$4,800	SS	$9,200
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.292	0.310	0.179	33.3%	7.0%	20.4%	33.5%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.388	0.356	0.268	31.3%	9.7%	10.4%	37.7%	3B	$4,300	3B	$4,600	IF/OF	$9,200
4	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.365	0.372	0.182	39.4%	9.8%	13.2%	48.3%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,300
5	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.370	0.393	0.261	37.7%	12.9%	19.7%	34.6%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,200
6	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.373	0.386	0.227	35.6%	13.9%	22.3%	34.7%	1B	$2,600	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,300
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.279	0.267	0.125	25.4%	7.7%	26.9%	39.7%	C	$2,600	C	$3,100	C	$5,800
8	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.258	0.267	0.089	36.6%	6.6%	26.2%	56.1%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,800
9	Bradley Zimmer	LEFT	0.301	0.301	0.152	37.6%	8.1%	33.1%	44.6%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,300

Cashner has shown vulnerability to LH power, especially so far this season and that’s where we’ll want to look from the Cleveland side. They have five LH bats in the top six of their projected lineup and all of them are viable as part of a stack or one off. Michael Brantley is priced affordably at both sites. Yonder Alonso is ridiculously cheap on FanDuel, and Jose Ramirez smashes RHP to the tune of a .268 ISO. I don’t even hate throwing Edwin Encarnacion into the mix as most DFS players will stack all the lefties and it’ll be a way to differentiate your stack.

Elite Plays – Michael Brantley, Yonder Alonso (FanDuel), Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso (DraftKings)

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.360	0.361	0.211	34.0%	7.0%	22.4%	50.2%	OF	$3,300	1B/OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,500
2	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.380	0.376	0.167	31.6%	14.3%	25.4%	36.8%	1B	$2,600	1B/3B	$2,900	1B	$5,900
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.324	0.360	0.191	36.2%	8.1%	17.3%	42.0%	SS	$4,900	SS	$5,100	3B	$10,000
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.329	0.321	0.188	30.8%	3.2%	19.1%	44.4%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,700
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.313	0.341	0.223	42.1%	12.5%	34.5%	39.4%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,100	IF/OF	$5,500
6	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.315	0.310	0.162	38.6%	5.3%	29.9%	50.0%	2B	$2,900	3B	$2,900	SS	$5,600
7	Luis Sardinas	SWITCH	0.130	0.175	0.000	9.5%	6.5%	25.8%	66.7%	SS	$2,300	3B/SS	$2,700	SS	$5,400
8	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.265	0.249	0.124	25.3%	3.2%	29.8%	47.2%	C	$2,000	C	$2,600	C	$4,500
9	Anthony Santander	SWITCH	0.283	0.263	0.154	34.9%	1.9%	18.5%	30.2%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800	LF	$5,700

200w

Author’s Note – that’s me laughing at myself after Manny Machado goes off and I benched him in the RotoGrinders season long league

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Toronto at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Toronto								NY Yankees
			Jaime Garcia							Luis Severino
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-240							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.320	0.280	30.4%	3.7%	25.6%	55.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.284	0.307	32.9%	7.7%	29.4%	46.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.334	0.347	32.4%	10.9%	18.1%	53.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.239	0.249	24.1%	5.9%	29.5%	54.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jaime Garcia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$12,900
	Salary Rank:		21 of 29	Salary Rank:		18 of 29	Salary Rank:		14 of 29
	2017	27	4.54	4.41	19.2%	9.5%	54.8%	30.5%	20.7%
	2018	3	3.50	3.86	25.4%	7.5%	39.0%	48.8%	11.6%

Jaime Garcia gets a “revenge” game against a Yankees team that didn’t trust him down the stretch last season. He’s been terrible thus far this season and now has to face a loaded Yankees lineup.

2018 (16.1 IP)
.548 wOBA LH 6.23 HR/9 22.2% K 0.0% BB
.349 wOBA RH 0.75 HR/9 26.5% K 10.2% BB

2017
.293 wOBA LH 1.00 HR/9 26.0% K 4.1% BB
.333 wOBA RH 1.04 HR/9 17.3% K 11.0% BB

Quick Breakdown:

The Yankees are one of the highest projected teams of the day with only the two Coors Field teams projected to score more. They’ll also projected to have seven RH bats in their starting lineup including the powerful trio of Judge, Sanchez, and Stanton. Only one batter in their projected starting line up has a K rate of higher than 23% against LHP (Judge). The upside isn’t there and the downside most certainly is. No thanks.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luis Severino
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,300	Salary:		$11,600	Salary:		$22,400
	Salary Rank:		2 of 29	Salary Rank:		2 of 29	Salary Rank:		2 of 29
	2017	31	3.25	2.98	29.4%	6.5%	50.6%	28.5%	19.4%
	2018	4	2.99	2.63	30.1%	8.6%	49.1%	24.6%	22.8%

Luis Severino continues to establish himself as not only the Yankees ace, but as one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He’s improving upon what was an impressive 2017 campaign.

2018 (24 IP)
.258 wOBA LH 0.00 HR/9 33.3% K 11.9% BB
.203 wOBA RH 0.00 HR/9 27.5% K 5.9% BB

2017
.287 wOBA LH 1.25 HR/9 29.0% K 7.2% BB
.243 wOBA RH 0.76 HR/9 29.7% K 5.9% BB

Quick Breakdown:

The Yankees are the largest favorites of the slate (even more than the Indians against the Orioles) and the Blue Jays have the third lowest run total of the slate. He’s also significantly cheaper than Kluber. That said, I still like Kluber more as Severino typically won’t pitch too deep in games as the Yankees like to rely on their excellent bullpen to close out games. Still, he should get 6-7 innings in and approach double digit strikeouts and that’s always the kind of SP we want in our DFS lineups. He’s not a lock play for me as Toronto doesn’t strike out as much as you might think (only one hitter in their projected starting lineup has a K rate topping 23%), but he’s definitely in play in GPPs as a way to move off Kluber ownership.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.346	0.348	0.247	35.6%	14.1%	23.0%	31.8%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,300
2	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.412	0.348	0.362	27.3%	8.0%	33.3%	34.1%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,400
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.359	0.401	0.267	40.5%	11.7%	22.8%	33.6%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,500	1B	$9,100
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.343	0.321	0.198	31.3%	7.9%	12.6%	38.1%	3B	$3,800	3B	$3,900	2B	$7,800
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.287	0.362	0.178	36.4%	7.4%	22.2%	45.9%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,500
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.283	0.307	0.127	26.7%	5.0%	15.9%	44.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,300
7	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.331	0.344	0.181	29.9%	13.2%	22.0%	52.7%	C	$2,200	C	$3,200	C	$6,800
8	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.261	0.302	0.126	29.9%	2.0%	22.7%	41.1%	2B	$2,100	2B	$2,900	2B	$5,900
9	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.314	0.290	0.186	26.3%	2.9%	13.5%	47.3%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,500

Severino is good at limiting damage but did have a 1.25 HR/9 rate to LH bats last season. The one Blue Jays hitter who hits RH bats really well is Justin Smoak. He’s the only one-off I’d consider from Toronto and not one I love given his price.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.278	0.311	0.075	19.9%	10.2%	17.2%	49.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,700
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.427	0.464	0.296	48.7%	27.0%	29.3%	31.1%	OF	$5,400	OF	$5,400	RF	$10,600
3	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.298	0.280	0.106	15.8%	5.1%	13.7%	35.5%	SS	$4,700	SS	$5,000	SS	$10,200
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.485	0.464	0.451	44.4%	16.7%	16.7%	44.3%	OF	$4,800	OF	$4,900	RF	$9,500
5	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.379	0.401	0.288	38.7%	10.1%	23.0%	39.8%	C	$3,900	C	$4,700	C	$9,100
6	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.384	0.371	0.200	30.9%	11.3%	17.3%	46.2%	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,800
7	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT										SS	$2,600	SS	$4,900
8	Tyler Austin	RIGHT	0.413	0.441	0.267	33.3%	13.5%	21.6%	37.5%	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,600
9	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.280	0.332	0.059	13.3%	10.5%	10.5%	40.0%	3B	$2,900	3B	$2,800	3B	$5,700

Jaime Garcia has always been fairly good at limiting damage as a ground ball pitcher but he does put runners on base, especially against RH bats, as he had a .333 wOBA allowed and 11.0% walk rate to that side of the plate last season. While Garcia might only give up one or two home runs to the Yankees, chances are if he does it will be of the two or three run variety. Obviously, the core RH bats of Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Giancarlo Stanton are in play. It’s going to be hard to stack this team though at their prices without completely sacrificing elsewhere so they are probably best reserved for fringe GPP lineups where you feel like punting at pitcher. Gleyber Torres is an interesting value option on DraftKings at $2,600 as he is anticipated to make his major league debut.

.333 wOBA RH 1.04 HR/9 17.3% K 11.0% BB

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks

Stackability – YELLOW

Kansas City at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Kansas City								Detroit
			Eric Skoglund							Francisco Liriano
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			DET-154							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.363	0.321	33.3%	8.7%	13.0%	42.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.270	0.272	19.5%	5.9%	23.5%	52.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.450	0.393	39.1%	11.0%	15.3%	36.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.367	0.381	35.4%	13.9%	18.2%	42.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Eric Skoglund
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,200	Salary:		$10,200
	Salary Rank:		28 of 29	Salary Rank:		25 of 29	Salary Rank:		20 of 29
	2017	5	5.83	9.50	15.1%	12.9%	36.4%	34.3%	13.4%
	2018	2	4.70	9.31	14.6%	6.3%	40.0%	45.7%	14.3%

Eric Skoglund is a decently rated prospect with average, but not overpowering stuff. He’s had massive difficulties in limited work at the major league level.

Career (27.2 IP)
.363 wOBA LH 0.00 HR/9 13.0% K 8.7% BB
.450 wOBA RH 1.54 HR/9 15.3% K 11.0% BB

Quick Breakdown:

Vegas expects Detroit to succeed today giving their not-so-good offense the sixth highest run total of the day. That’s more a reflection of Skoglund’s ability then their offense. Skoglund hasn’t shown any upside and is not in play today.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Francisco Liriano
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$13,900
	Salary Rank:		17 of 29	Salary Rank:		15 of 29	Salary Rank:		11 of 29
	2017	18	5.09	5.66	19.4%	12.1%	44.9%	29.6%	16.8%
	2018	3	4.57	2.55	20.0%	11.4%	43.8%	43.8%	16.7%

Francisco Liriano is certainly not the ace pitcher he once was, but he’s had a decent start to the 2018 season, especially against LH bats.

2018 (17.2 IP)
.183 wOBA LH 1.59 HR/9 31.6% K 10.5% BB
.320 wOBA RH 0.75 HR/9 15.7% K 11.8% BB

2017
.286 wOBA LH 0.37 HR/9 22.0% K 5.0% BB
.374 wOBA RH 1.24 HR/9 18.6% K 14.2% BB

Quick Breakdown:

Liriano should be able to limit damage to this light-hitting Royals team with three of the top four in the projected lineup hitting from the left-side and the rest of the lineup being marginal at best. He doesn’t have the best strikeout stuff against RH bats so that is concerning but given his moderate price tag, he’s worthy of consideration where you need a cheaper SP or as a SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.333	0.347	0.020	17.7%	13.3%	19.2%	52.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000	CF	$5,500
2	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.343	0.340	0.183	34.5%	5.9%	15.7%	37.6%	2B	$3,400	2B/OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,300
3	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.325	0.309	0.197	30.2%	3.2%	16.2%	41.9%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,100
4	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.276	0.299	0.212	37.0%	6.2%	35.7%	38.4%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,200	1B	$7,100
5	Jorge Soler	RIGHT	0.272	0.343	0.160	47.1%	10.5%	29.8%	38.2%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,000	RF	$5,600
6	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.292	0.261	0.104	25.0%	5.6%	26.4%	45.8%	1B	$2,300	1B/3B	$2,800	3B	$5,400
7	Paulo Orlando	RIGHT	0.327	0.373	0.103	30.4%	0.0%	20.0%	34.8%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,700	RF	$5,500
8	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.325	0.294	0.154	32.8%	5.1%	16.0%	40.3%	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,700
9	Drew Butera	RIGHT	0.251	0.277	0.100	36.8%	8.9%	23.2%	21.1%	C	$2,000	C	$2,300	C	$4,900

We’ll want to avoid LH bats against Liriano and the Royals lack a lot of RH pop in their lineup. Whit Merrifield is the best option and is affordably priced. Someone else in the lineup might have a good day, but the numbers aren’t pointing in any particular direction so I’ll go with the numbers and avoid Royals bats outside of Merrifield.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield

Stackability – RED

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.261	0.262	0.200	20.0%	6.1%	15.2%	50.0%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,900
2	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.324	0.270	0.114	40.9%	5.3%	34.2%	50.0%	3B	$3,600	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,300
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.379	0.409	0.160	45.5%	14.5%	23.4%	35.1%	1B	$3,800	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,400
4	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.387	0.410	0.295	45.5%	6.4%	16.0%	43.0%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,400
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.274	0.279	0.070	31.8%	6.5%	14.0%	52.9%	C	$2,600	1B	$3,200	1B	$6,400
6	James McCann	RIGHT	0.413	0.467	0.284	38.7%	9.0%	13.1%	35.5%	C	$2,400	C	$2,900	C	$5,700
7	JaCoby Jones	RIGHT	0.289	0.275	0.167	28.6%	6.3%	43.8%	42.9%	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,800	IF/OF	$5,700
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.279	0.285	0.091	27.5%	5.7%	8.5%	43.3%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,700	SS	$5,900
9	Dixon Machado	RIGHT	0.202	0.279	0.019	27.1%	6.6%	14.8%	50.0%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,000	SS	$5,400

Skoglund has been brutalized by RH bats thus far in his short major league career allowing a .450 wOBA and 1.54 HR/9 rate. The Tigers have eight RH hitters in their projected starting lineup. I imagine Skoglund’s outing today will be very short lived and that we’ll see some RH relievers so we need to temper the 10 run potential for this Tigers team. That said, they can (and probably will) do damage against the youngster and Nick Castellanos and James McCann profile as the two best against southpaws with ISOs approaching .300. Miguel Cabrera is always in play but he doesn’t have the pop he once did. I have no interest in the corpse that is Victor Martinez.

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Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos, James McCann

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Minnesota								Tampa Bay
			Phil Hughes							Yonny Chirinos
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TBD
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.457	0.386	45.5%	6.9%	16.8%	32.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.253	0.368	27.3%	9.5%	11.9%	46.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.323	0.363	38.3%	4.2%	14.7%	28.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.295	0.331	60.0%	2.6%	25.6%	40.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Phil Hughes
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$11,000
	Salary Rank:		22 of 29	Salary Rank:		22 of 29	Salary Rank:		18 of 29
	2017	9	5.04	5.87	15.6%	5.3%	30.4%	41.2%	13.0%

Phil Hughes will make his 2018 debut this season, much to the delight of people wanting to stack the totally awesome Tampa Bay Rays lineup.

2018 (has not pitched)

2017 (53.2 IP)
.457 wOBA LH 3.20 HR/9 16.8% K 6.9% BB
.323 wOBA RH 1.32 HR/9 14.7% K 4.2% BB

Quick Breakdown:

Yes those numbers are not a typo. .457 wOBA and 3.20 HR/9 allowed to LH hitters last season. Tampa should have four of those in their lineup (maybe they will sign people off the street that are LH to hit against Hughes). It’s not like Hughes is dominant against RH hitters to make up for it. The upside isn’t there and he’s making his first start of the season. Move on.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Yonny Chirinos
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$11,400
	Salary Rank:		22 of 29	Salary Rank:		23 of 29	Salary Rank:		17 of 29

	2018	3	3.89	2.70	18.5%	6.2%	43.9%	41.4%	13.8%

Yonny Chirinos has been impressive thus far in his very limited work at the major league level. He has good control – barely walking over a batter per nine innings in the majors and also kept the ball in the ballpark with a HR/9 ratio well below one over his minor league career. After not allowing a run the first 14 1/3 innings this season, was hammered for six last game out by the Rangers.

2018 and Career (20 IP)
.253 wOBA LH 0.84 HR/9 11.9% K 9.5% BB
.295 wOBA RH 0.00 HR/9 25.6% K 2.6% BB

Quick Breakdown:

Chirinos is not overly powerful and has limited upside as he has not topped 7.66 K/9 in minors last two seasons. He does have a decent K rate against RHP thus far but the sample size is very small and the Twins only have one RH bat that strikes out a ton in Miguel Sano. That said, the price is very cheap and there are some expensive stacks to be had, so he’s worth consideration as a punt option or SP2. Just hope you get the Chirinos from the first starts of the season, and not the one that got pounded by Texas last game out.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.346	0.332	0.213	32.8%	10.6%	19.8%	38.1%	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,500	2B	$9,300
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.360	0.403	0.127	40.6%	12.7%	13.5%	48.7%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,600
3	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.349	0.349	0.229	45.4%	10.6%	37.9%	39.0%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,200
4	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.370	0.351	0.261	33.3%	7.4%	17.8%	38.5%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,300
5	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.357	0.375	0.278	38.8%	13.4%	25.2%	33.3%	1B	$2,200	1B	$2,900	1B	$5,600
6	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.328	0.332	0.220	35.3%	5.9%	21.6%	32.3%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,100	SS	$5,600
7	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.357	0.335	0.221	36.6%	10.0%	16.5%	40.6%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,800
8	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.323	0.337	0.150	28.4%	12.5%	20.6%	38.9%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800	LF	$5,500
9	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.308	0.321	0.145	34.0%	12.2%	29.3%	40.9%	C	$2,000	C	$2,600	C	$4,800

While Chirinos has been effective, we don’t know a lot about him and he’s not considered a top prospect – this always makes a stack viable. When stacking the Twins, I’ll go with the usual suspects Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and Logan Morrison with the latter two having the most pop against RHP. I see you looking at me Joe Mauer.

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Elite Plays – Eddie Rosario, Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.343	0.343	0.182	27.7%	7.7%	12.5%	40.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,700
2	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.343	0.349	0.211	41.4%	8.1%	29.1%	38.3%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,500
3	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.301	0.332	0.151	34.9%	5.6%	24.8%	34.9%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,700
4	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.298	0.325	0.136	37.6%	16.9%	26.8%	47.6%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,200	2B	$6,500
5	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.288	0.296	0.095	28.8%	11.7%	26.9%	50.9%	3B	$2,800	2B/SS	$3,200	2B	$6,300
6	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.335	0.299	0.217	35.1%	11.1%	18.5%	56.8%	2B	$2,800	2B	$2,800	2B	$5,900
7	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.315	0.267	0.095	21.7%	9.3%	18.5%	48.9%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,300
8	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.299	0.328	0.188	31.8%	4.7%	17.6%	52.0%	C	$2,300	C	$2,900	C	$5,400
9	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.274	0.293	0.112	35.3%	3.3%	19.0%	49.8%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,700

Did I mention Phil Hughes had a .450 wOBA and 3+ HR/9 allowed rate to LH bats last season? Welcome to Denard Span and Brad Miller day where sub .350 wOBA’s and sub .200 ISO’s suddenly become appealing. Heck Joey Wendle might be the best LH bat on the team. We can also consider Carlos Gomez who has a 40%+ HC% and a .200+ ISO against RHP. This is one ugly lineup, but they are going against one ugly pitcher so that makes them pretty right?

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Elite Plays – Denard Span

Secondary Plays – Brad Miller, Joey Wendle, Carlos Gomez

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at Atlanta – 1:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Mets								Atlanta
			Zack Wheeler							Mike Foltynewicz
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			ATL-110							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.349	0.350	36.5%	10.9%	25.1%	41.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.368	0.360	33.7%	10.8%	20.2%	32.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.337	0.329	27.6%	9.5%	17.3%	51.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.310	0.311	23.6%	6.7%	22.9%	47.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Zack Wheeler
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$14,900
	Salary Rank:		12 of 29	Salary Rank:		9 of 29	Salary Rank:		7 of 29
	2017	17	4.64	5.21	21.0%	10.4%	47.5%	32.8%	18.3%
	2018	2	4.33	2.77	17.7%	7.8%	48.6%	18.4%	21.1%

Zack Wheeler was great in his season debut against Miami, but who doesn’t look good against that team. He was ok in his last start against Washington, giving up three runs in six innings but only striking out two while walking three.

2018 (13 IP)
.163 wOBA LH 0.00 HR/9 28.6% K 14.3% BB
.273 wOBA RH 0.96 HR/9 13.5% K 5.4% BB

2017
.364 wOBA LH 2.13 HR/9 24.9% K 10.7% BB
.348 wOBA RH 1.12 HR/9 18.0% K 10.1% BB

Quick Breakdown:

I’m more inclined to believe the 2017 version of Wheeler is the version we’ll see today. Vegas has the Braves projected for a slate average 4.3 runs and while Wheeler has shown K upside against LH bats which the Braves will throw at him a bunch, that .364 wOBA and 2.13 HR/9 rate is not appealing. Especially when you factor in that he’s priced as one of the top 12 pitchers on the slate at both sites and the Braves are one of the hardest teams in the majors to strike out. There might be times this season to use Wheeler, but this isn’t one of them.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Foltynewicz
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$15,800
	Salary Rank:		11 of 29	Salary Rank:		10 of 29	Salary Rank:		6 of 29
	2017	28	4.57	4.79	20.7%	8.5%	39.4%	28.1%	15.8%
	2018	4	3.35	2.53	28.9%	10.0%	47.2%	32.1%	18.9%

Mike “my name is harder to spell than Giannis Antetokounmpo Foltynewicz gets the start for Atlanta today and he’s been showing his strikeout upside thus far this season. He has struck out at least 7 three different times this season (two against the Phillies) and has struck out 26 in 21.1 IP.

2018 (21.1 IP)
.320 wOBA LH 0.84 HR/9 29.2% K 16.7% BB
.301 wOBA RH 0.84 HR/9 28.6% K 2.4% BB

2017
.375 wOBA LH 1.42 HR/9 18.9% K 9.9% BB
.311 wOBA RH 0.96 HR/9 22.3% K 7.2% BB

Quick Breakdown:

The Mets are also a tough team to strike out with the top six of their lineup all having K rates below 22%. That said, Folty is priced comparably to Wheeler and has significant more upside. He’s not my favorite mid-range priced SP today, but he’s one I’m not afraid to use in GPP lineups.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.416	0.395	0.286	39.1%	15.9%	21.7%	37.3%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,600	LF	$9,400
2	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.364	0.341	0.219	39.4%	7.4%	20.4%	35.0%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,400
3	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.327	0.345	0.181	35.8%	9.5%	16.2%	40.7%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,200	SS	$8,400
4	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.363	0.395	0.264	41.6%	10.5%	21.3%	33.2%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,700
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.336	0.352	0.180	31.0%	15.1%	22.0%	37.0%	3B	$4,200	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,200
6	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.296	0.338	0.134	35.4%	7.9%	16.3%	36.5%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,300
7	Jose Lobaton	SWITCH	0.249	0.327	0.144	31.7%	10.9%	26.6%	51.3%	C	$2,100	C	$2,400	C	$4,700
8	Zack Wheeler	RIGHT	0.108	0.164	0.040	13.3%	3.7%	40.7%	50.0%	P	$7,300	P	$7,900	P	$14,900
9	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.271	0.245	0.114	23.7%	2.3%	30.5%	52.2%	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,000	SS	$5,700

Folty allowed a .375 wOBA and 1.42 HR/9 to LH batters last season so we’ll want to attack him with batters from that side of the plate. Michael Conforto has been elite against RHP thus far in his career and is an elite option at the top of the Mets order. Jay Bruce isn’t far behind and is affordably priced. Asdrubal Cabrera has decent numbers against RHP, but I don’t like his $4K+ price tag.

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto

Secondary Plays – Jay Bruce

Stackability – ORANGE

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.325	0.290	0.108	23.6%	6.3%	13.8%	43.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,900
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.324	0.332	0.174	30.8%	6.6%	16.5%	37.4%	2B	$4,300	2B	$4,400	2B	$9,000
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.420	0.432	0.281	39.0%	15.5%	16.9%	33.0%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,800	1B	$10,300
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.324	0.341	0.106	34.5%	11.2%	15.7%	47.0%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,300
5	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.351	0.340	0.213	30.8%	6.1%	12.3%	35.8%	C	$2,700	C	$3,400	C	$6,800
6	Preston Tucker	LEFT	0.424	0.391	0.289	48.3%	4.9%	24.4%	34.5%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,000	LF	$5,500
7	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.281	0.296	0.092	26.5%	9.8%	21.6%	46.9%	SS	$3,600	SS	$3,600	SS	$7,600
8	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.340	0.309	0.068	21.1%	11.8%	20.0%	58.2%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,200	2B	$6,500
9	Mike Foltynewicz	RIGHT	0.072	0.110	0.024	13.0%	0.0%	52.1%	46.7%	P	$7,500	P	$7,700	P	$15,800

If the Zack Wheeler from 2017 shows up today, the LH bats for the Braves should have their way with him. We know what that means.

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Freddie Freeman obliterates bad RHP to the tune of a .420 wOBA and .281 ISO. As awesome as those numbers are, Preston Tucker are actually even better and he’s considerably cheaper than Freeman. Ender Inciarte, Ozzie Albies, and Nick Markakis are all good additions to a LH stack although they lack the massive upside that Freeman and Tucker have.

MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 22nd

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Cleveland at Baltimore – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Michael Brantley, Yonder Alonso (FanDuel), Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso (DraftKings)

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Toronto at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks

Stackability – YELLOW

Kansas City at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield

Stackability – RED

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos, James McCann

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Eddie Rosario, Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Denard Span

Secondary Plays – Brad Miller, Joey Wendle, Carlos Gomez

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at Atlanta – 1:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto

Secondary Plays – Jay Bruce

Stackability – ORANGE

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman, Preston Tucker

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis

Stackability – YELLOW

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