MLB Grind Down: Sunday, May 1st

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

San Francisco at NY Mets – 1:10 PM

San Francisco NY Mets
Article Image Madison Bumgarner Article Image Noah Syndergaard
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM -135 6.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.245 3 32.8% 4.7% SP vs. Left 0.290 10 25.1% 6.0%
SP vs. Right 0.281 23 26.1% 5.0% SP vs. Right 0.255 9 32.4% 3.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Madison Bumgarner
Article Image FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,800 Salary:$11,500
FPPG:38.2 FPPG:20.4
Pitcher Rating:80.3 Pitcher Rank:8
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 5 3.15 29.2% 7.7% 36.7% 38.3% 14
2015 32 3.00 26.9% 4.5% 41.7% 27.8% 28

Bumgarner has looked much sharper in his last two starts and the numbers don’t look bad overall but we have him in a tough spot against the Mets with Syndergaard on the mound. Often a player that we used for cash games in the past this is a scenario where his price will make him more of a tournament play for me today. The strikeout potential is there but so is the Mets offense which ranks near the top of the league even against left handed pitching.

Noah Syndergaard
Article Image FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$11,000 Salary:$10,600
FPPG:50.8 FPPG:29.5
Pitcher Rating:93.8 Pitcher Rank:3
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 4 1.85 36.2% 3.8% 56.7% 22.6% 1
2015 24 2.95 27.5% 5.1% 46.5% 24.6% 6

Syndergaard has been down right ridiculous to start the season posting a SIERA under two through his first four starts. On top of the stellar pitching Syndergaard is backed by an offense that can put up the runs on anybody. The downside to this matchup is that the Giants do not strikeout at a high rate and while I have him near the top of the list today we have a ton of good arms throwing today bumping his value down just a bit.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.382 0.153 OF $3,500 OF $3,500
2 Angel Pagan SWITCH 0.273 0.082 OF $2,900 OF $2,900
3 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.340 0.150 3B $2,600 3B $3,000
4 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.363 0.196 1B $3,600 1B $3,400
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.345 0.218 SS $2,800 SS $2,900
6 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.371 0.209 OF $3,400 OF $3,800
7 Trevor Brown RIGHT 0.368 0.217 C $2,100 C $2,600
8 Kelby Tomlinson RIGHT 0.300 0.066 2B $2,100 2B $2,400
9 Madison Bumgarner LEFT 0.292 0.180 P $10,800 P $11,500
Team Averages 0.337 0.163 $2,875 $3,063

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt

Stackability – None

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.265 0.127 OF $3,800 OF $3,100
2 David Wright RIGHT 0.452 0.271 3B $2,900 3B $3,800
3 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.258 0.000 OF $4,000 OF $3,100
4 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.330 0.226 OF $4,600 OF $3,700
5 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.305 0.131 2B $3,900 2B $2,900
6 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.382 0.274 SS $2,000 2B/SS $3,200
7 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.305 0.135 SS $2,900 SS $2,800
8 Kevin Plawecki RIGHT 0.192 0.133 C $2,200 C $2,000
9 Noah Syndergaard RIGHT 0.174 0.000 P $11,000 P $10,600
Team Averages 0.296 0.144 $3,288 $3,075

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – David Wright , Yoenis Cespedes

Stackability – None

Toronto at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM

Toronto Tampa Bay
Article Image Marcus Stroman Article Image Jake Odorizzi
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -120 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.247 3 14.6% 6.9% SP vs. Left 0.269 5 25.4% 4.4%
SP vs. Right 0.268 2 16.2% 5.1% SP vs. Right 0.333 15 16.8% 8.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marcus Stroman
Article Image FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,900 Salary:$9,200
FPPG:29.4 FPPG:14.5
Pitcher Rating:63.2 Pitcher Rank:16
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 5 4.11 13.6% 6.4% 60.9% 26.1% 30
2015 4 3.28 17.5% 5.8% 64.1% 21.8% 23

Stroman is a guy that I want to look at as a potential under the radar tournament option today. His price is on the fringe at DK which will push his ownership down and this is a Rays team that strikeout in bunches. Sure the numbers are not that great with his K% down below 15% but he has a powerful offense behind him that can help pick up that win bonus and he has flashed the ability to sit guys down via the strikeout here and there.

Jake Odorizzi
Article Image FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,500 Salary:$8,000
FPPG:24.4 FPPG:13.2
Pitcher Rating:51.2 Pitcher Rank:19
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 5 3.81 20.7% 4.3% 35.6% 37.9% 25
2015 28 3.90 21.4% 6.6% 37.3% 27.0% 5

On a smaller slate Odorizzi is the type of guy we would want to throw in a tournament simply because he is better than people realize and the Blue Jays are striking out at a high rate. With all of the arms available to us that risk is simply not necessary today.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.301 0.090 OF $2,900 OF $2,700
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.389 0.261 3B $4,700 3B $4,900
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.395 0.299 OF $4,200 OF $4,200
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.386 0.272 1B $3,600 1B $4,000
5 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.322 0.161 SS $3,600 SS $3,500
6 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.336 0.118 OF $3,500 OF $3,400
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.309 0.191 C $2,300 C $3,100
8 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.326 0.171 SS $2,200 2B/3B $2,200
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.291 0.096 2B $2,200 2B $2,300
Team Averages 0.339 0.184 $3,244 $3,367

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista

Stackability – GPP

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.332 0.116 2B $3,800 2B $3,300
2 Brad Miller LEFT 0.329 0.172 SS $2,500 SS $3,000
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.298 0.147 3B $2,700 3B $3,200
4 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.399 0.305 OF $2,900 OF $3,200
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.321 0.187 OF $3,000 OF $3,500
6 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.305 0.181 1B $2,100 1B $2,800
7 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.307 0.093 OF $2,500 OF $2,700
8 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.329 0.186 OF $2,700 OF $3,200
9 Curt Casali RIGHT 0.337 0.299 C $2,000 C $2,700
Team Averages 0.329 0.187 $2,689 $3,067

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – None

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 1:35 PM

Cincinnati Pittsburgh
Article Image Tim Adleman Article Image Jeff Locke
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT -140 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.348 7 16.8% 7.6% SP vs. Left 0.346 5 10.5% 8.4%
SP vs. Right 0.274 8 34.0% 6.0% SP vs. Right 0.328 12 19.3% 9.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tim Adleman
FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary: Salary:
FPPG: FPPG:
Pitcher Rating: Pitcher Rank:
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016
2015

Raisel Iglesias was a late scratch today and instead it will be Tim Adleman making his major league debut against a tough Pirates squad. We do not know a ton about him but he offers a lower K% and has surrendered a healthy amount of runs despite a low BABIP in AAA this season. The reason I mention this is that we can stack the Pirates here with confidence.

Jeff Locke
Article Image FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,800 Salary:$6,400
FPPG:20.8 FPPG:7.6
Pitcher Rating:46.5 Pitcher Rank:20
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 4 5.26 15.6% 15.6% 63.9% 23.1% 2
2015 30 4.18 17.5% 8.2% 51.0% 27.0% 14

Speaking of confidence, Locke has to have some after going into Coors and pitching six scoreless innings with eight strikeouts. It is not enough to make me come close to selecting him today and will likely prove to be more of an outlier as we move forward. He is not a terrible pitcher but also lacks upside and you should not chase that performance.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.389 0.219 SS $3,200 SS $3,400
2 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.404 0.234 3B $3,000 3B $4,200
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.410 0.184 1B $3,300 1B $3,800
4 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.339 0.114 2B $2,500 2B $3,300
5 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.259 0.071 C $2,200 C $2,800
6 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.281 0.148 OF $3,600 OF $3,500
7 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.336 0.115 OF $2,800 OF $2,900
8 Tyler Holt RIGHT 0.281 0.000 OF $2,200 OF $2,600
9 Raisel Iglesias RIGHT 0.000 0.000 P $7,800 P $8,200
Team Averages 0.300 0.121 $2,850 $3,313

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart , Eugenio Suarez

Stackability –

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 John Jaso LEFT 0.360 0.160 1B $3,000 1B $2,900
2 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.371 0.195 OF $4,100 OF $4,300
3 David Freese RIGHT 0.327 0.136 3B $3,100 3B $3,100
4 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.352 0.162 OF $4,200 OF $4,200
5 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.335 0.090 C $3,200 C $2,900
6 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.337 0.143 OF $3,400 OF $4,100
7 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.312 0.102 2B $3,500 2B $3,500
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.261 0.072 SS $3,200 SS $2,900
9 Jeff Locke LEFT 0.123 0.024 P $5,800 P $6,400
Team Averages 0.309 0.120 $3,463 $3,488

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays – John Jaso , Starling Marte

Stackability – GPP

Chicago White Sox at Baltimore – 1:35 PM

Chicago White Sox Baltimore
Article Image Chris Sale Article Image Ubaldo Jimenez
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CWS -130 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.268 0 33.3% 5.4% SP vs. Left 0.322 15 22.8% 9.1%
SP vs. Right 0.274 26 30.3% 4.6% SP vs. Right 0.326 8 20.6% 8.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Sale
Article Image FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$11,000 Salary:$11,900
FPPG:49.8 FPPG:28.9
Pitcher Rating:95.8 Pitcher Rank:2
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 5 3.36 23.2% 3.6% 43.9% 28.0% 13
2015 31 2.52 32.1% 4.9% 42.6% 25.1% 26

Remember when I said we have a couple of arms that bump Syndergaard down just a bit? Well Sale is one of those arms and despite a decreased K% this year he has been absolutely nasty in his last three starts allowing just eight hits and one run over twenty four innings. Don’t get me wrong this Orioles team has the ability to hit just about anyone but Sale is on a whole different level right now as was evident by the Blue Jays line last time out.

Ubaldo Jimenez
Article Image FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,400 Salary:$6,900
FPPG:32.3 FPPG:16.5
Pitcher Rating:53.3 Pitcher Rank:18
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 4 3.71 25.7% 10.9% 50.8% 37.5% 4
2015 32 3.93 21.2% 8.6% 49.1% 27.0% 16

Jimenez is tough enough to take when we know his offense is going to give him run support masking some of those earned runs but it would be foolish to take him in this scenario. He is normally only worth the risk when you are limited on options so we can safely avoid him today and move on.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.360 0.166 OF $3,400 OF $4,500
2 Jimmy Rollins SWITCH 0.263 0.127 SS $2,800 SS $3,700
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.368 0.229 1B $3,400 1B $4,400
4 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.332 0.213 3B $3,900 3B $4,400
5 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.330 0.128 OF $3,200 OF $3,400
6 Brett Lawrie RIGHT 0.287 0.126 2B $2,900 2B $3,700
7 Jerry Sands RIGHT 0.246 0.130 OF $2,000 1B/OF $3,100
8 Dioner Navarro SWITCH 0.278 0.115 C $2,600 C $2,900
9 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.291 0.102 OF $2,400 OF $3,300
Team Averages 0.306 0.148 $2,956 $3,711

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Todd Frazier , Jose Abreu

Stackability – None

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.483 0.333 OF $2,800 OF $2,700
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.322 0.165 3B $4,300 3B $4,100
3 Chris Davis LEFT 0.326 0.180 1B $4,000 1B $3,300
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.380 0.283 OF $3,800 OF $3,800
5 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.300 0.176 OF $2,500 OF $3,200
6 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.299 0.150 C $2,400 C $2,600
7 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.223 0.060 SS $2,900 SS $2,100
8 Nolan Reimold RIGHT 0.345 0.144 OF $2,700 OF $2,400
9 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.275 0.100 2B $2,300 2B $2,100
Team Averages 0.328 0.177 $3,078 $2,922

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – None

Detroit at Minnesota – 2:10 PM

Detroit Minnesota
Article Image Mike Pelfrey Article Image Ricky Nolasco
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN -125 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.375 7 11.2% 11.7% SP vs. Left 0.306 4 17.8% 8.5%
SP vs. Right 0.318 7 12.2% 2.4% SP vs. Right 0.340 2 24.0% 4.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Pelfrey
Article Image FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$5,100
FPPG:14.5 FPPG:4.9
Pitcher Rating:30.2 Pitcher Rank:30
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 4 5.93 9.1% 12.1% 46.8% 42.3% 22
2015 30 4.59 12.0% 6.3% 50.8% 26.1% 22

He is who we thought he is! Well this is not a surprise to many who have been playing DFS for any amount of time but Pelfrey continues to be a human tee and the Twins bats look a lot better recently. This one should be pretty obvious but you are loading up against him pretty much every time he toes the rubber.

Ricky Nolasco
Article Image FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,400 Salary:$7,300
FPPG:34.3 FPPG:19.8
Pitcher Rating:59.7 Pitcher Rank:17
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 4 3.27 22.6% 2.8% 48.7% 26.6% 28
2015 8 4.10 20.2% 8.1% 40.7% 26.0% 13

I am a Nolasco hater and not afraid to admit that. This guy is not as good as he has pitched to this point and I am just waiting for the regression monster to snatch him up. Even if we did buy into this start to the season we have way too many options on the board at pitcher making him an easy fade against a Tigers squad that can put them up in bunches.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.333 0.130 2B $4,100 2B $4,300
2 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.365 0.236 OF $3,400 OF $4,100
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.403 0.196 1B $3,900 1B $4,400
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.280 0.141 C $3,300 1B $3,800
5 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.345 0.213 OF $2,800 OF $4,200
6 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.293 0.144 3B $3,200 3B $3,400
7 Mike Aviles RIGHT 0.242 0.060 2B $2,300 3B/OF $2,400
8 Bobby Wilson RIGHT 0.248 0.079 C $2,000
9 Anthony Gose LEFT 0.305 0.116 OF $2,600 OF $3,400
Team Averages 0.313 0.146 $3,200 $3,556

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – J.D. Martinez , Victor Martinez

Stackability – GPP

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Danny Santana SWITCH 0.229 0.076 OF $2,500 SS $2,500
2 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.314 0.198 2B $3,100 2B $4,400
3 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.322 0.116 1B $3,300 1B $3,800
4 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.380 0.236 OF $3,500 3B/OF $4,400
5 Byung Ho Park RIGHT 0.394 0.358 1B $3,000 1B $4,100
6 Oswaldo Arcia LEFT 0.316 0.200 OF $2,700 OF $3,700
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.375 0.116 SS $2,800 3B/SS $3,600
8 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.304 0.151 SS $2,300 SS $2,900
9 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.262 0.078 C $2,200 C $2,600
Team Averages 0.322 0.170 $2,822 $3,556

Elite Plays – Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Byung Ho Park , Brian Dozier

Stackability – GPP/Cash


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About the Author

louiescards
Andrew Cook (louiescards)

Andrew “LouiesCards” Cook is a DFS veteran who has been playing since 2009. You will see him grinding MLB, NBA, and NFL with a main focus on DraftKings. Over the years he has held several roles at RotoGrinders helping write articles and features, both in-front and behind-the-scenes. Andrew was able to throw the first pitch out at a St. Louis Cardinals game, courtesy of DraftKings. You can follow Andrew on twitter @louiescards