MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 23rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-24 02:08:48

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

San Francisco at Pittsburgh – 12:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
San Francisco					Pittsburgh
			Albert Suarez					Jon Niese
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -112					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.358	2	10.3%	6.9%	SP vs. Left	0.333	7	18.1%	4.7%
SP vs. Right	0.273	1	15.9%	4.4%	SP vs. Right	0.347	30	14.4%	8.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Albert Suarez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$6,500
					FPPG:		14.6	FPPG:		7.2
					Pitcher Rating:		44.7	Pitcher Rank:		15
L30 Days	3	76.0	4.32	4.74	13.9%	5.9%	9.2%	55.7%	29.1%	33.8%
2016	3	76.0	4.28	3.69	13.4%	5.5%	9.0%	54.0%	28.0%	29.7%

Suarez pitched well in his first start of the season, but has since cooled off. In three starts (and six relief appearances), he owns a 4.32 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13.9%. He checks in as a small underdog on the road today against the Pirates, who are ranked ninth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. I know pitching options are scarce in the early slate, but I am not looking to target Suarez.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jon Niese
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$5,200
					FPPG:		24.3	FPPG:		11.0
					Pitcher Rating:		52.9	Pitcher Rank:		12
L30 Days	5	91.4	4.51	4.71	15.4%	8.5%	7.0%	54.6%	23.7%	31.3%
2016	14	92.4	4.45	4.74	16.3%	8.0%	7.3%	53.8%	26.9%	29.9%
2015	29	93.1	4.27	4.13	14.7%	7.1%	5.8%	54.5%	24.7%	29.7%

Niese is having a typical Niese-like season. In 14 starts, he has a 4.45 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.3%. He is a slight favorite today against the Giants, but this isn’t exactly an exploitable matchup. The Giants are one of the most difficult teams to strikeout, ranking third in team K% against left-handed pitching. If I had to choose a pitcher from this game, I would side with Niese, but luckily we don’t have to do that with four games in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants may have the seventh lowest run projection on the board, but their matchup is better than the Vegas implication. Jon Niese is a low strikeout pitcher that has allowed a .333 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .347 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Niese has also allowed 30 home runs to righties during that stretch.

Giants Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.310 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.133 (27 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 18.7% (3 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.60 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.18 (12 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.268	0.079	0.251	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,300
2	Joe Panik	LEFT	0.308	0.088	0.346	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,800
3	Mac Williamson	RIGHT	0.225	0.081	0.255	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.368	0.185	0.395	C	$3,800	C	$4,600
5	Trevor Brown	RIGHT	0.232	0.105	0.411	C	$2,300	C	$2,500
6	Ramiro Pena	SWITCH	0.251	0.000	0.487	3B	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,000
7	Jarrett Parker	LEFT	0.408	0.323	0.464	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500
8	Conor Gillaspie	LEFT	0.217	0.048	0.394	3B	$2,200	3B	$2,100
9	Albert Suarez	RIGHT	0.878	0.000	0.000	P	$7,300	P	$6,500
	Team Averages	—	0.351	0.101	0.334	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Buster Posey

Secondary Plays – Mac Williamson, Trevor Brown, Ramiro Pena

Stackability – GPP

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are small favorites today against Albert Suarez, who has a strikeout rate well below the major league average. The sample size is very small, but in his brief stint in the majors, Suarez has allowed a .358 wOBA to left-handed hitters. In addition to the lefties, I also like the underpriced bat of Jung-Ho Kang.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.325 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.143 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.2% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.57 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.32 (10 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	John Jaso	LEFT	0.350	0.158	0.261	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,200
2	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.301	0.103	0.167	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,000
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.346	0.163	0.332	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,500
4	Jung-Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.369	0.202	0.299	3B	$2,800	3B	$4,100
5	Matt Joyce	LEFT	0.305	0.171	0.419	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300
6	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.262	0.060	0.293	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,800
7	Sean Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.299	0.158	0.225	OF	$2,300	2B/OF	$3,300
8	Erik Kratz	RIGHT	0.059	0.022	0.101	C	$2,200	C	$2,000
9	Jon Niese	LEFT	0.178	0.019	0.000	P	$7,600	P	$5,200
	Team Averages	—	0.274	0.117	0.233	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco, Jung-Ho Kang (FD)

Secondary Plays – John Jaso, Jung-Ho Kang (DK), Matt Joyce

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Seattle at Detroit – 1:08 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Seattle					Detroit
			Adrian Sampson					Daniel Norris
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -125					10.0
SP vs. Left	0.599	1	16.7%	16.7%	SP vs. Left	0.374	4	17.2%	9.4%
SP vs. Right	0.428	1	6.7%	0.0%	SP vs. Right	0.291	5	17.8%	7.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Adrian Sampson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$4,400
					FPPG:		8.0	FPPG:		1.1
					Pitcher Rating:		27.0	Pitcher Rank:		17
L30 Days	1	85.0	5.31	7.71	9.5%	4.8%	3.5%	33.3%	27.8%	27.8%
2016	1	85.0	5.27	7.71	9.5%	4.8%	3.5%	33.3%	27.8%	27.8%

Sampson is making his second career major league start. He hasn’t shown much strikeout upside in the minor leagues and that’s unlikely to change at this level. In 13 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 3.25 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 18.8%. Throw in a difficult matchup on the road against the Tigers and he becomes an easy fade in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Daniel Norris
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$6,100
					FPPG:		3.0	FPPG:		1.7
					Pitcher Rating:		53.0	Pitcher Rank:		11
2015	13	79.6	4.45	3.75	17.9%	7.6%	9.2%	39.3%	43.2%	28.7%

Norris is making his first start of the 2016 season. In 13 starts last year, he posted a 4.45 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.9%. He has shown some nice upside in the minor leagues, it has just yet to translate to success at the major league level. I have a difficult time recommending him today, even though he is a small favorite against the Mariners. On the season, Seattle is ranked above the major league average in both team ISO and team K% against southpaws.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners may be underdogs in this one, but they come into the game with the fifth highest team total on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against Daniel Norris, who is making his first start of the season. Norris was a reverse-splits pitcher a year ago, but I still prefer to target the right-handed batters in this Mariners’ lineup.

Mariners Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.312 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.167 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.6% (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.88 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.85 (5 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.304	0.130	0.269	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,400
2	Franklin Gutierrez	RIGHT	0.403	0.282	0.388	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,400
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.305	0.137	0.384	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,500
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.441	0.318	0.270	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,500
5	Dae-ho Lee	RIGHT	0.347	0.250	0.346	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,600
6	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.332	0.201	0.347	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,700
7	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.359	0.159	0.321	C	$2,600	C	$3,500
8	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.266	0.104	0.264	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,500
9	Shawn O’Malley	SWITCH	0.259	0.024	0.234	OF	$2,200	OF/SS	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.335	0.178	0.314	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Franklin Gutierrez, Nelson Cruz

Secondary Plays – Ketel Marte, Dae-Ho Lee, Kyle Seager

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Detroit

The Tigers are one of the top offenses to target today, both in the early-only and the all-day slates. They have the third highest implied run total, as they square off against Adrian Sampson, who is only making his second career major league start. Given the fact that Sampson is a low strikeout pitcher, I expect the Tigers to make some great contact, which could result in a nice afternoon for their batters.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.335 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.176 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.7% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.78 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.15 (3 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.338	0.151	0.320	2B	$4,000	2B	$5,500
2	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.292	0.059	0.380	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,600
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.420	0.227	0.425	1B	$4,400	1B	$5,200
4	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.338	0.201	0.381	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,700
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.313	0.167	0.306	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,600
6	Steven Moya	LEFT	0.365	0.257	0.516	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.250	0.079	0.287	C	$2,400	C	$2,900
8	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	SWITCH	0.317	0.210	0.261	C	$2,000	C	$3,800
9	Andrew Romine	LEFT	0.271	0.053	0.300	SS	$2,000	OF/SS	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.323	0.156	0.353	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton

Secondary Plays – Jose Iglesias, Nick Castellanos, Steven Moya

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Philadelphia at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Philadelphia					Minnesota
			Jerad Eickhoff					Ricky Nolasco
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIN -139					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.338	9	17.5%	6.8%	SP vs. Left	0.313	6	19.8%	6.3%
SP vs. Right	0.259	7	26.5%	5.1%	SP vs. Right	0.354	7	20.9%	4.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jerad Eickhoff
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$9,400
					FPPG:		30.2	FPPG:		16.0
					Pitcher Rating:		61.9	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	5	102.4	3.85	2.87	23.1%	6.9%	11.5%	43.8%	37.1%	27.0%
2016	14	95.2	3.97	3.49	20.7%	5.7%	9.8%	43.1%	35.2%	29.2%
2015	8	92.4	3.56	2.65	24.1%	6.4%	10.4%	37.9%	40.0%	36.2%

Eickhoff has been better than most pitchers this season, posting a 3.97 SIERA with a strikeout rate just north of 20%. As little as a week ago, this would have been an exploitable matchup, but the Twins have been red-hot at the plate recently. I currently have him ranked as the third best pitching option in the early slate, but that says more about the lack of options than it does about his fantasy appeal.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Ricky Nolasco
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$7,400
					FPPG:		26.4	FPPG:		13.6
					Pitcher Rating:		65.2	Pitcher Rank:		4
L30 Days	5	100.0	3.68	3.90	20.5%	2.3%	11.8%	44.0%	38.0%	30.7%
2016	14	97.3	3.83	4.91	20.5%	3.9%	10.1%	43.6%	38.0%	32.5%
2015	8	83.1	4.10	6.75	20.2%	8.1%	9.3%	40.7%	31.7%	26.0%

You know the pitching options are limited when you are considering Nolasco in cash games. As I always seem to mention with Nolasco, his numbers suggest some positive regression moving forward. His SIERA is a full run lower than his ERA and he has a strikeout rate over 20%. The Phillies’ offense has been good in this series, but they are still ranked 29th in team wOBA and 20th in team ISO against right-handed pitching. Dare I say that Nolasco is the best pitcher in the early slate when you factor in salaries?

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Even though I like Ricky Nolasco a bit today, that doesn’t mean that we have to automatically avoid all hitters against him. When the slate is as small as this one, I don’t mind targeting a hitter against my starting pitcher if the matchup looks like a favorable one. Over the last two seasons, Nolasco has allowed a .313 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .354 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.283 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.149 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.1% (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.23 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.02 (15 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.354	0.137	0.289	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,700
2	Andres Blanco	SWITCH	0.346	0.207	0.279	SS	$2,200	2B/3B	$3,500
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.335	0.193	0.249	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,400
4	Ryan Howard	LEFT	0.308	0.227	0.132	1B	$2,300	1B	$2,300
5	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.245	0.241	0.200	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,200
6	Carlos Ruiz	RIGHT	0.238	0.055	0.196	C	$2,200	C	$3,600
7	Cody Asche	LEFT	0.309	0.172	0.372	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,600
8	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.284	0.118	0.144	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,200
9	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.258	0.132	0.497	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.297	0.165	0.262	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Andres Blanco, Maikel Franco

Stackability – NONE

Minnesota

The Twins’ offense has been on fire recently. Over their last four games, they have scored a combined 33 runs, with at least six scored in each of those outings. They draw a fairly difficult matchup today against Jerad Eickhoff, but they do get to face him at home in an American League ballpark. Over the last two seasons, Eickhoff has allowed a .338 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.306 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.148 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.06 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.48 (9 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.339	0.117	0.259	SS	$3,300	3B/SS	$4,000
2	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.355	0.211	0.348	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,100
3	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.324	0.117	0.268	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,300
4	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.314	0.188	0.415	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,000
5	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT	0.305	0.175	0.275	3B	$2,600	3B	$3,000
6	Byung-Ho Park	RIGHT	0.308	0.232	0.161	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,000
7	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.344	0.211	0.377	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,700
8	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.270	0.081	0.484	C	$2,500	C	$2,500
9	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.289	0.156	0.205	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.316	0.165	0.310	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Robbie Grossman, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe

Stackability – GPP

Chicago White Sox at Boston – 1:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Chicago White Sox					Boston
			James Shields					Rick Porcello
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -231					10.5
SP vs. Left	0.385	29	19.4%	11.2%	SP vs. Left	0.321	21	20.9%	5.4%
SP vs. Right	0.310	18	26.9%	8.2%	SP vs. Right	0.335	17	20.5%	4.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
James Shields
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		19.9	FPPG:		8.5
					Pitcher Rating:		42.1	Pitcher Rank:		16
L30 Days	5	84.4	6.16	17.13	11.5%	13.5%	6.4%	40.3%	33.8%	41.0%
2016	14	94.6	4.81	6.28	18.0%	10.5%	10.0%	46.1%	32.8%	34.3%
2015	33	101.1	3.72	3.91	25.1%	9.4%	12.4%	44.9%	34.4%	31.2%

It’s to the point where you have to feel a little bad for Shields. In his last five starts, he has an ERA of 17.13 and no, that is not a typo. He has been shelled in every start so far with the White Sox and things likely aren’t going to get any better today. Not only is he pitching in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but he has to face the best offense in baseball in their own backyard. I wouldn’t take Shields today if he was free.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Rick Porcello
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$9,900
					FPPG:		34.9	FPPG:		18.1
					Pitcher Rating:		67.4	Pitcher Rank:		3
L30 Days	5	97.0	3.76	4.26	19.2%	3.1%	8.0%	50.0%	34.7%	31.3%
2016	14	102.8	3.71	3.76	21.6%	4.7%	7.6%	47.1%	35.8%	30.2%
2015	28	98.0	3.73	4.92	20.2%	5.2%	8.5%	45.7%	32.5%	32.8%

Porcello slightly edged out Ricky Nolasco for the top pitcher rating in the early slate, but they are close enough that I don’t mind taking the discount with Nolasco. Porcello does have a better chance to pick up the win though, as he is a -231 favorite against the White Sox. On paper, this is a nice matchup for Porcello, as the White Sox are ranked 24th in team wOBA and 23rd in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are looking for the rare sweep of the Red Sox today, as they have taken each of the first three games in the series. They draw a mediocre matchpu against Rick Porcello, who has allowed a .321+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. The biggest reason to target any White Sox is the ballpark. Fenway Park is always one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball.

White Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.301 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.144 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.0% (17 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.07 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.50 (8 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.347	0.200	0.295	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,400
2	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.351	0.164	0.340	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.364	0.219	0.386	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,000
4	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.324	0.136	0.387	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,700
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.329	0.220	0.240	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,300
6	Brett Lawrie	RIGHT	0.288	0.139	0.259	2B	$2,900	2B	$2,500
7	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.304	0.110	0.343	C	$2,400	C	$2,600
8	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.292	0.110	0.264	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900
9	J.B. Shuck	LEFT	0.279	0.078	0.267	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.320	0.153	0.309	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Tim Anderson, Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera

Stackability – GPP

Boston

The Red Sox offense came alive a little last night, but they were unable to get anything done in the late innings. Hopefully a matchup against James Shields will really kickstart this lineup. Shields has historically been much worse against left-handed hitters than he has against right-handed hitters, but at this point, you can target hitters without hands and they will probably get some hits off of Shields.

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.355 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.0% (3 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.61 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 6.00 (1 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.358	0.204	0.295	OF	$4,100	OF	$5,300
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.352	0.150	0.280	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,500
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.345	0.121	0.466	SS	$3,700	SS	$5,400
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.437	0.345	0.403	1B	$4,400	1B	$5,600
5	Chris Young	RIGHT	0.440	0.000	0.230	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,500
6	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.381	0.287	0.417	OF	$3,400	OF	$5,100
7	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.302	0.134	0.307	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,500
8	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.230	0.075	0.225	C	$2,200	C	$3,000
9	Marco Hernandez	SWITCH	0.304	0.136	0.313	SS	$2,100	2B/SS	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.350	0.161	0.326	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Chris Young, Hanley Ramirez

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Chicago Cubs at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Chicago Cubs					Miami
			Jon Lester					Wei-Yin Chen
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -163					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.274	5	28.9%	4.8%	SP vs. Left	0.264	4	17.4%	3.3%
SP vs. Right	0.280	19	24.1%	5.9%	SP vs. Right	0.349	39	19.8%	5.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jon Lester
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,400	Salary:		$11,700
					FPPG:		42.6	FPPG:		23.6
					Pitcher Rating:		94.5	Pitcher Rank:		1
L30 Days	5	105.2	2.71	1.24	28.8%	3.6%	12.6%	55.1%	30.3%	25.8%
2016	14	101.3	3.33	2.06	25.8%	5.6%	10.4%	47.9%	32.9%	28.4%
2015	32	99.5	3.19	3.34	25.0%	5.7%	10.4%	48.9%	29.3%	29.0%

Lester is easily the best pitching option on the slate, both in the main slate and in the all-day slate. He comes into tonight’s game in great form, posting a 2.71 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.8% and a walk rate of only 3.6%. He draws a favorable matchup against the Marlins, who are ranked 16th or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against left-handed pitching this season. Don’t overthink this one, Lester is the easy play in cash games.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Wei-Yin Chen
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$5,000
					FPPG:		24.5	FPPG:		12.0
					Pitcher Rating:		60.4	Pitcher Rank:		6
L30 Days	5	91.2	4.51	6.57	18.2%	6.4%	8.6%	36.3%	45.0%	43.2%
2016	14	89.7	4.22	5.22	19.2%	5.6%	8.4%	38.6%	39.4%	37.2%
2015	31	97.1	3.97	3.34	19.3%	5.2%	8.6%	40.5%	39.4%	28.3%

Chen continues to struggle this season, despite pitching in the National League and in a better ballpark than he did a year ago. On the season, he has a 4.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.2%. He draws a tough matchup tonight against the Cubs, who have more than a few right-handed power bats that they can throw at him. That could be an issue, as Chen has allowed a whopping 39 home runs to righties over the last two seasons.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs don’t have the highest team total on the board, but right-handed hitters are always in play against Wei-Yin Chen. In addition to the 39 home runs he has allowed, Chen has given up a .349 wOBA to righties over the last two seasons.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.346 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.177 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.1% (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.30 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.12 (13 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.389	0.173	0.288	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,700
2	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.315	0.098	0.330	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.363	0.255	0.342	3B	$4,100	3B/OF	$4,800
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.371	0.199	0.508	1B	$4,200	1B	$5,100
5	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.437	0.213	0.319	SS	$3,000	3B/SS	$3,800
6	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.243	0.129	0.395	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,600
7	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.312	0.167	0.347	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,400
8	David Ross	RIGHT	0.314	0.158	0.561	C	$2,200	C	$2,700
9	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.114	0.063	0.000	P	$11,400	P	$11,700
	Team Averages	—	0.318	0.162	0.343	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Javier Baez

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Albert Almora

Stackability – GPP

Miami

The Marlins have the lowest team total on the board tonight. They also have the worst matchup, as Jon Lester has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters over the last couple of seasons. Typically, Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton are viable options against southpaws, but both are deep GPP plays at best tonight.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.316 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.145 (22 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.0% (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.10 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.38 (18 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ichiro Suzuki	LEFT	0.328	0.096	0.449	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.367	0.116	0.401	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,300
3	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.445	0.262	0.467	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,100
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.421	0.417	0.297	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,200
5	Chris Johnson	RIGHT	0.314	0.089	0.254	1B	$2,200	1B	$2,100
6	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.289	0.165	0.379	C	$3,000	C	$3,200
7	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.267	0.100	0.330	2B	$2,900	2B	$2,000
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.337	0.142	0.267	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,900
9	Wei-Yin Chen	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$7,800	P	$5,000
	Team Averages	—	0.308	0.154	0.316	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 23rd

San Francisco at Pittsburgh – 12:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Buster Posey

Secondary Plays – Mac Williamson, Trevor Brown, Ramiro Pena

Stackability – GPP

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco, Jung-Ho Kang (FD)

Secondary Plays – John Jaso, Jung-Ho Kang (DK), Matt Joyce

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Seattle at Detroit – 1:08 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Franklin Gutierrez, Nelson Cruz

Secondary Plays – Ketel Marte, Dae-Ho Lee, Kyle Seager

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Upton

Secondary Plays – Jose Iglesias, Nick Castellanos, Steven Moya

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Philadelphia at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Andres Blanco, Maikel Franco

Stackability – NONE

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Robbie Grossman, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe

Stackability – GPP

Chicago White Sox at Boston – 1:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Tim Anderson, Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera

Stackability – GPP

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Chris Young, Hanley Ramirez

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Chicago Cubs at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Javier Baez

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Albert Almora

Stackability – GPP

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Marcell Ozuna (GPP), Giancarlo Stanton (GPP)

Stackability – NONE

Be sure to check out my Daily Fantasy Baseball Strategy Guide

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