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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 29th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-09-30 03:22:14

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Arizona at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

Arizona Washington
arizonamlb Robbie Ray washingtonmlb Joe Ross
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS -136 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.298 3 35.4% 31.9% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.360 4 33.8% 17.2%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.340 19 37.5% 27.5% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.265 5 26.0% 23.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Robbie Ray
robbie-ray-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $7,600
FPPG: 31.7 FPPG: 16.5
Pitcher Rating: 68.2 Pitcher Rank: 10
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 94.0 3.72 7.66 30.1% 11.5% 13.8% 43.9% 37.9% 39.4%
2016 31 99.9 3.50 4.77 28.6% 8.9% 11.7% 46.2% 32.0% 37.0%
2015 23 98.1 4.05 3.52 21.8% 9.0% 9.0% 43.3% 34.6% 35.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 5.16 — K%: 24.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.353
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.44 — K%: 26.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.299

There are two early games on the slate today and plenty of ways to get exposure to those players. FanDuel is offering all-day contests, while DraftKings is offering both early-only and all-day contests. Ray will be on the mound for the Diamondbacks. He always carries an elite strikeout rate, but he has been giving up runs in bunches recently. In his last five starts, he has a 7.66 ERA with a walk rate of 11.5%. While the Nationals are missing their two best hitters, they are both left-handed, so it doesn’t really help Ray anyway. He has the most upside of any pitcher in the early slate, but that’s not saying a whole lot.

Joe Ross
joseph-ross-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,000
FPPG: 24.3 FPPG: 12.3
Pitcher Rating: 63.7 Pitcher Rank: 11
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 2 57.0 3.07 3.18 30.0% 3.3% 13.2% 15.8% 42.1% 36.8%
2016 18 89.9 4.07 3.48 20.5% 6.3% 11.1% 42.3% 30.3% 29.8%
2015 13 88.7 3.66 3.64 22.0% 6.7% 11.9% 49.8% 33.8% 30.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.36 — K%: 19.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.279
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.73 — K%: 22.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.313

Ross is making his third start in nearly three months. Since returning from a shoulder injury, he has pitched pretty well posting a 3.07 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. He has thrown 51 and 63 pitches in his first two outings and we can expect the Nationals to extend him a bit more today against the Diamondbacks. The problem with a pitch count is that it takes a near perfect outing for that pitcher to pay off his salary. If he throws 75 pitches or so, he will be lucky to get five innings in. He still grades out as a nice option in the early slate, but the pitch count severely limits his upside.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks are ranked below the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against right-handed pitching this season. They come into today’s game with the seventh lowest run projection of the 24 teams in action. Joe Ross has been tough on right-handed hitters this season, but he has allowed a .360 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

Confirmed Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.375 0.170 29.5% 0.425 2B $3,500 2B $5,400
2 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.301 0.127 30.5% 0.253 SS $2,700 OF/SS $3,300
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.366 0.186 35.7% 0.433 1B $3,600 1B $5,000
4 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.369 0.284 41.9% 0.231 3B $3,300 3B $4,400
5 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.337 0.170 32.1% 0.468 OF $3,800 3B/OF $3,900
6 Yasmany Tomas RIGHT 0.308 0.206 39.9% 0.387 OF $2,700 OF $3,700
7 Socrates Brito LEFT 0.251 0.192 29.8% 0.230 OF $2,000 OF $2,800
8 Tuffy Gosewisch RIGHT 0.160 0.032 18.8% 0.350 C $2,200 C $2,400
9 Robbie Ray LEFT 0.235 0.139 31.8% 0.000 P $8,000 P $7,600
Team Averages — 0.300 0.167 32.2% 0.309 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Jake Lamb

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The Nationals are ranked fifth in team wOBA and second in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season. They draw a boom or bust matchup today against Robbie Ray, who boasts an elite strikeout rate, but who has also been hittable by righties. On the season, Ray has allowed a .340 wOBA, 19 home runs, and a 37.5% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters.

Confirmed Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.303 0.056 44.2% 0.398 OF $4,200 2B/OF $5,500
2 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.335 0.100 37.5% 0.428 SS $2,000 2B/3B $2,600
3 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.425 0.280 46.7% 0.258 OF $3,500 OF $4,000
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.360 0.150 36.6% 0.252 3B $3,500 3B $4,200
5 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.284 0.213 39.7% 0.281 1B $2,900 1B $3,800
6 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.301 0.272 42.9% 0.223 SS $2,600 SS $3,500
7 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.320 0.203 34.9% 0.000 OF $2,100 OF $4,200
8 Pedro Severino RIGHT 0.230 C $2,400
9 Joe Ross RIGHT 0.426 0.077 36.4% 0.439 P $7,800 P $7,000
Team Averages — 0.344 0.169 39.9% 0.279 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland at Detroit – 1:08 PM ET

Cleveland Detroit
clevelandmlb Ryan Merritt detroitmlb Daniel Norris
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET -150 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.176 0 20.0% 0.0% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.310 2 27.5% 32.9%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.141 0 7.7% 13.3% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.341 7 34.2% 19.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ryan Merritt
ryan-merritt-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,000 Salary: $5,000
FPPG: 7.0 FPPG: 4.6
Pitcher Rating: 41.8 Pitcher Rank: 21
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 0 0.0 3.64 13.50 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% 25.0%
2016 0 0.0 3.06 1.50 10.0% 0.0% 4.6% 61.1% 16.7% 11.1%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 0.00 — K%: 12.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.055
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 13.50 — K%: 0.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.530

Merritt will be making his first career major league start today, after making three appearances out of the bullpen. In 24 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 3.70 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.4%. Low strikeout pitchers tend to have a tough time in the majors, especially in their first stint in the big leagues. Merritt is an easy fade on the road against a Tigers’ offense that is ranked tenth in team wOBA against left-handed pitching.

Daniel Norris
daniel-norris-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $7,800
FPPG: 26.0 FPPG: 13.5
Pitcher Rating: 62.5 Pitcher Rank: 11
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 101.2 3.49 3.54 28.6% 7.6% 13.4% 32.9% 46.1% 36.8%
2016 12 89.7 4.00 3.59 22.9% 7.3% 10.2% 38.5% 38.5% 32.8%
2015 13 79.6 4.45 3.75 17.9% 7.6% 9.2% 39.3% 43.2% 28.7%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.56 — K%: 21.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.354
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.99 — K%: 19.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.299

Norris has been terrific in his last five starts, posting a 3.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.6%. Tigers’ fans and Francisco Liriano owners were both cursing the bullpen of the Blue Jays last night, as they let the Orioles come from behind and win that game with a home run in the top of the ninth inning. The Tigers would have pulled even with Baltimore, but instead they still find themselves a game back for the second wildcard spot. Norris grades out as the top pitching option in the early slate thanks to his recent form. He draws a mediocre matchup against the Indians, who are better against righties than they are against lefties.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians come into today’s game with a mediocre run projection of 4.21. If you are playing in the early-only slate, this game has more fantasy appeal than the Diamondbacks/Nationals slate. Daniel Norris has been in solid form of late, but he has allowed a .341 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season. I typically don’t like to target hitters against my pitcher in DFS, but we can make an exception in two-game slates.

Confirmed Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.299 0.145 26.7% 0.238 OF $3,000 OF $3,400
2 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.371 0.167 31.2% 0.433 3B $4,000 3B $4,200
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.308 0.110 28.2% 0.164 SS $3,400 SS $3,600
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.355 0.195 42.7% 0.288 1B $3,500 1B $3,600
5 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.438 0.225 31.4% 0.505 OF $2,500 OF $3,400
6 Abraham Almonte SWITCH 0.336 0.182 27.5% 0.328 OF $2,400 OF $3,100
7 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.000 1B $2,000 1B $2,200
8 Chris Gimenez RIGHT 0.327 0.206 40.0% 0.224 C $2,000 C $2,100
9 Michael Martinez SWITCH 0.271 0.031 18.5% 0.293 SS $2,000 2B/OF $2,200
Team Averages — 0.338 0.158 30.8% 0.275 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Rajai Davis, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit

The Tigers’ offense has come alive over the last few nights. They are basically in must-win mode from here on out, as they can’t afford to lose another game. They draw an exploitable matchup today against the rookie, Ryan Merritt. We don’t know a lot about Merritt other than he is a young lefty that has a very low strikeout rate in the minors. All of the right-handed hitters in this lineup are in play.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.380 0.216 34.4% 0.385 2B $3,800 2B $5,300
2 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.353 0.122 28.2% 0.404 OF $3,100 OF $4,800
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.382 0.216 41.6% 0.368 1B $3,900 1B $5,200
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.352 0.162 35.2% 0.376 C $3,100 1B $4,300
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.369 0.210 46.2% 0.256 OF $3,400 OF $5,100
6 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.323 0.206 37.4% 0.440 OF $3,200 OF $4,900
7 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.275 0.207 36.1% 3B $2,500 3B $3,600
8 James McCann RIGHT 0.360 0.269 47.5% 0.211 C $2,200 C $3,500
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.305 0.142 29.1% 0.314 SS $2,100 SS $3,200
Team Averages — 0.344 0.194 37.3% 0.344 — — — —

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Justin Upton, Nick Castellanos, James McCann

Stackability – GREEN

Boston at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Boston NY Yankees
bostonmlb Henry Owens nyyankeesmlb CC Sabathia
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY -165 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.452 0 12.5% 17.7% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.307 4 22.2% 23.8%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.456 5 26.8% 18.2% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.316 17 25.7% 18.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Henry Owens
henry-owens-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $6,000
FPPG: 13.0 FPPG: 4.1
Pitcher Rating: 33.6 Pitcher Rank: 24
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
2016 4 84.8 6.92 7.79 18.1% 21.7% 8.6% 31.3% 54.2% 24.5%
2015 11 96.2 4.66 4.57 18.4% 8.8% 12.2% 34.7% 48.9% 27.7%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.71 — K%: 18.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.339
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.87 — K%: 18.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.363

Owens has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball over the last two seasons. During that stretch, he has 15 starts, an ERA north of 5.00 with a walk rate well above 10%. He comes into tonight’s game as an underdog in what is expected to be a high scoring affair. The Yankees have not been great against left-handed pitching this season, but that’s not enough of a reason to target Owens. The risk greatly outweighs the potential reward.

CC Sabathia
cc-sabathia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,600
FPPG: 28.1 FPPG: 14.1
Pitcher Rating: 45.4 Pitcher Rank: 19
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 97.0 4.33 2.83 18.5% 7.5% 8.9% 52.8% 33.0% 29.0%
2016 29 96.7 4.41 4.02 19.4% 8.5% 9.8% 49.7% 33.8% 25.1%
2015 29 93.2 4.08 4.73 18.9% 6.9% 9.1% 45.9% 32.4% 29.1%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 5.14 — K%: 19.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.336
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.73 — K%: 18.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.323

Sabathia has been in decent form recently, although I wouldn’t buy into his 2.83 ERA over the last month. If you look at his peripheral stats, they are nearly identical to his season long averages. He draws a tough matchup tonight against the Red Sox, who are ranked second in team wOBA against left-handed pitching and first in team wOBA over the last month of play. Both pitchers can be avoided in what is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the night.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

In his career, David Ortiz is only 17-for-63 (.219 batting average) against CC Sabathia, but this is his final game in Yankee Stadium. I don’t play the narrative card as often as most, but this feels like a good time to do it. The Red Sox have a lower implied team total than expected, but that could be due to the fact that they clinched their division last night. If the Red Sox decide to sit their every day starters, Sabathia would see a nice boost.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.364 0.115 27.1% 0.252 2B $3,600 2B $4,300
2 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.373 0.160 34.7% 0.312 SS $3,900 SS $4,900
3 David Ortiz LEFT 0.357 0.156 44.1% 0.471 1B $4,300 1B $5,100
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.344 0.256 35.4% 0.416 OF $4,100 OF $5,100
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.464 0.341 39.8% 0.505 1B $4,100 1B $5,300
6 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.269 0.186 26.0% 0.183 3B $2,800 1B/3B $3,000
7 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.301 0.123 31.8% 0.361 OF $3,500 OF $3,800
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.450 0.242 25.5% 0.184 C $2,900 C $2,900
9 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.191 0.000 35.7% 0.421 OF $3,100 OF $2,800
Team Averages — 0.346 0.175 33.3% 0.345 — — — —

Elite Plays – Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, Sandy Leon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Yankees

How about that walk-off grand slam from Mark Teixeira last night? With this being his final season, I’m sure it will be a moment that he will remember forever. The Yankees still have three more home games after tonight, so I’ll wait to play the narrative card with Teixeira. This is a great spot for the Yankees’ offense as a whole, as Henry Owens has allowed .398 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .340 wOBA to right-handed hitters in his career.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.284 0.085 24.1% 0.284 OF $3,100 OF $3,700
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.256 0.077 25.9% 0.169 OF $3,200 OF $3,100
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.361 0.370 46.7% 0.443 C $3,900 C $5,400
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.323 0.170 30.3% 0.510 2B $2,100 2B $3,900
5 Mark Teixeira SWITCH 0.305 0.114 31.8% 0.246 1B $2,800 1B $3,800
6 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.299 0.081 28.1% 0.290 3B $2,500 3B $2,800
7 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.352 0.138 22.3% 0.322 SS $3,100 SS $3,700
8 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.308 0.170 29.5% 0.212 C $2,500 C $2,800
9 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.262 0.077 50.0% 0.138 1B $2,300 1B $2,800
Team Averages — 0.306 0.142 32.1% 0.290 — — — —

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Starlin Castro

Secondary Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Mark Teixeira, Chase Headley

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Pittsburgh
cubsmlb Rob Zastryzny pittsburghmlb Ivan Nova
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT -108 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.159 0 15.8% 32.3% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.363 10 37.7% 13.5%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.351 0 46.7% 15.0% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.310 13 32.3% 22.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rob Zastryzny
robert-zastryzny-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $4,500
FPPG: 11.7 FPPG: 6.5
Pitcher Rating: 58.8 Pitcher Rank: 13
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 0 0.0 3.43 2.08 20.6% 2.9% 12.4% 45.8% 41.7% 28.0%
2016 0 0.0 2.96 1.46 25.5% 5.9% 14.1% 57.6% 33.3% 29.4%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.60 — K%: 18.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.280
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 0.00 — K%: 31.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.199

For the record, I had to copy and paste “Zastryzny” because there is no way I was going to spell that right on the first try. He has made seven appearances out of the Cubs’ bullpen this season, but tonight will mark his first career major league start. In 14 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 4.33 ERA with a strikeout rate of 22.7%. He comes into tonight’s game as a small underdog against a Pirates’ offense that has the fourth highest team wOBA against southpaws this season. I will be taking a wait and see approach on Zastryzny.

Ivan Nova
ivan-nova-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,500
FPPG: 24.5 FPPG: 12.0
Pitcher Rating: 60.6 Pitcher Rank: 12
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 76.0 3.35 3.18 20.3% 1.4% 9.7% 53.5% 27.7% 30.3%
2016 25 90.1 3.81 4.25 18.4% 4.2% 9.4% 53.0% 28.0% 34.9%
2015 17 89.9 4.58 5.07 15.3% 8.0% 7.8% 49.0% 31.7% 32.3%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.15 — K%: 15.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.321
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 5.03 — K%: 18.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.357

Nova has had pinpoint command in his last six starts, walking one single batter during that stretch. He has been in good form coming into the game, but he draws a difficult matchup against the Cubs, who are ranked ninth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The good news for Nova is that the Cubs have already clinched the number one seed in the National League, so we could see them rest players in the last four days of the season. I probably won’t have any Nova shares regardless, but give him a boost if any of the big names in the Cubs’ lineup get the night off.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are just trying to stay sharp, as they gear up for their playoff run. They have such a big lead over every team in the National League that they could lose their next four games and still be five games ahead of the next closest team. Even though tonight’s game doesn’t mean anything for the Cubs, it’s not like they aren’t going to try. On the season, Ivan Nova has allowed a .363 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.358 0.169 28.4% 0.470 OF $3,900 OF $5,500
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.387 0.249 40.6% 0.318 3B $4,200 3B/OF $5,000
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.408 0.277 38.6% 0.382 1B $4,100 1B $5,200
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.349 0.162 32.7% 0.355 2B $3,000 2B $4,500
5 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.311 0.159 29.2% 0.304 SS $2,400 SS $3,600
6 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.281 0.096 26.6% 0.365 OF $3,000 OF $3,900
7 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.348 0.208 35.0% 0.480 C $2,900 C/OF $3,800
8 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.297 0.141 27.2% 0.342 SS $3,100 2B/3B $3,900
9 Rob Zastryzny LEFT P $5,900 P $4,500
Team Averages — 0.342 0.183 32.3% 0.377 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have quietly hit southpaws well this season, ranking fourth in team wOBA. They draw an exploitable matchup tonight against Rob Zastryzny, who is making his first career major league start. While Zastryzny did show some strikeout potential in the minors, these pitching debuts typically bode better for the opposing offense. All of the right-handed hitters in this lineup are in play.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 John Jaso LEFT 0.140 0.000 28.6% 0.337 1B $2,800 1B $3,200
2 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.338 0.232 31.8% 0.245 OF $3,200 OF $4,500
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.322 0.190 34.6% 0.458 OF $3,100 OF $4,700
4 Jung-Ho Kang RIGHT 0.345 0.200 38.6% 0.406 3B $3,700 3B $5,000
5 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.356 0.167 27.3% 0.197 OF $2,400 OF $4,000
6 Sean Rodriguez RIGHT 0.407 0.240 50.0% 0.445 OF $3,200 2B/SS $4,600
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.401 0.019 40.0% 0.341 C $2,700 C $3,600
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.360 0.180 25.3% 0.239 SS $2,100 SS $4,000
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.000 P $7,000 P $6,500
Team Averages — 0.297 0.136 30.7% 0.296 — — — —

Elite Plays – Sean Rodriguez

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Jung-Ho Kang, Francisco Cervelli, Jordy Mercer

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Baltimore Toronto
baltimoremlb Ubaldo Jimenez torontomlb Marcus Stroman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -180 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.380 10 31.0% 21.7% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.318 11 33.1% 19.4%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.318 6 31.6% 18.0% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.305 10 28.8% 20.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ubaldo Jimenez
ubaldo-jimenez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $8,100
FPPG: 20.4 FPPG: 9.4
Pitcher Rating: 47.0 Pitcher Rank: 17
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 103.6 3.99 3.09 21.6% 7.5% 9.7% 53.8% 35.5% 32.3%
2016 24 99.0 4.75 5.71 19.5% 11.2% 8.4% 48.6% 33.3% 31.4%
2015 32 95.6 3.93 4.11 21.2% 8.6% 8.0% 49.1% 28.8% 27.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.72 — K%: 21.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.325
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.85 — K%: 19.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.336

Jimenez seems to have found the fountain of youth. In his last five starts, he has a 3.99 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.6%. While the form is nice to see, he will have the weight of the world on his shoulders tonight. The Orioles still control their own destiny in terms of making it into the wildcard game, but they need to win out to do so. Jimenez draws an awful matchup tonight against the Blue Jays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. He is a large underdog on the road in a game that features an over/under of 9.0 runs. He can be avoided in all formats.

Marcus Stroman
marcus-stroman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $8,300
FPPG: 29.1 FPPG: 14.9
Pitcher Rating: 73.3 Pitcher Rank: 7
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 97.5 3.93 3.75 18.7% 8.7% 10.9% 61.7% 18.7% 25.0%
2016 31 96.9 3.57 4.34 19.8% 6.3% 9.4% 60.5% 20.3% 31.0%
2015 4 93.3 3.28 1.67 17.5% 5.8% 7.2% 64.1% 17.9% 21.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.05 — K%: 18.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.298
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.98 — K%: 20.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.311

Stroman rarely has those GPP-winning type of outings, but he is one of the most consistent pitchers in the American League East. In his last five starts, he has a 3.93 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.7%. This is also an important game for the Blue Jays because if they lose, they would be tied with the Orioles and only a game ahead of the Tigers. The big issue that I have with Stroman here is his matchup. The Orioles are ranked third in team wOBA and first in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles picked up a huge comeback win over the Blue Jays last night. They are hoping to carry some of that momentum into tonight’s matchup against Marcus Stroman. While Baltimore hits right-handed pitching well as a team, this is not an ideal matchup. Stroman has an elite ground ball rate and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 wOBA this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.350 0.200 32.5% 0.227 OF $3,400 OF $3,700
2 Chris Davis LEFT 0.352 0.275 42.4% 0.230 1B $3,000 1B $3,200
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.367 0.255 34.7% 0.289 3B $3,600 3B/SS $4,000
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.382 0.297 39.9% 0.322 OF $3,500 OF $4,100
5 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.357 0.274 39.2% 0.332 3B $3,500 1B $3,500
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.332 0.197 28.9% 0.223 2B $2,900 2B $2,800
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.312 0.183 30.9% 0.277 C $2,700 C $3,400
8 Michael Bourn LEFT 0.279 0.114 25.3% 0.254 OF $2,200 OF $3,600
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.306 0.125 31.8% 0.412 SS $2,500 SS $2,600
Team Averages — 0.337 0.213 34.0% 0.285 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

Even though Ubaldo Jimenez has been in good form recently, I will still be stacking the Blue Jays in both cash games and GPPs. They have one of the highest implied team totals in the slate and they are playing at home in what they may treat as a must-win game. On the season, Jimenez has allowed a .380 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .318 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.267 0.096 25.0% 0.407 OF $2,200 OF $3,200
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.401 0.273 41.3% 0.406 3B $4,600 3B $5,200
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.379 0.276 38.6% 0.422 1B $4,000 1B $4,600
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.358 0.215 41.1% 0.407 OF $3,700 OF $4,500
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.333 0.186 31.4% 0.333 C $2,900 C $3,300
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.324 0.199 34.7% 0.269 SS $3,200 SS $3,700
7 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.339 0.211 38.7% 0.234 OF $2,900 OF $3,200
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.293 0.109 26.4% 0.288 OF $2,800 OF $3,200
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.281 0.101 25.0% 0.277 2B $2,100 2B/3B $2,900
Team Averages — 0.331 0.185 33.6% 0.338 — — — —

Elite Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, Michael Saunders

Stackability – GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious