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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 8th - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-08-08 18:40:05

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Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

St. Louis at Kansas City – 8:15 PM ET

St. Louis Kansas City
stlouismlb Michael Wacha kansascitymlb Jason Vargas
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-112 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 0.318 30.8% 8.6% 19.5% 45.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.341 0.313 28.6% 5.4% 13.4% 39.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.339 0.307 28.5% 6.8% 22.2% 48.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.286 0.295 31.0% 6.9% 19.6% 37.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Wacha
michael-wacha-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 4.31 5.09 18.8% 7.4% 46.6% 30.0% 18.8%
2017 20 3.96 3.66 23.9% 7.8% 47.9% 28.8% 20.1%
L30 4 3.41 2.16 25.3% 5.3% 52.3% 28.8% 21.2%

Wacha has some of the best form of any pitcher going in this slate. In his last five start, he has a 3.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a ground ball rate of 52%. Much like Carlos Martinez last night, Wacha has some appeal as an SP2 in tournaments. His price is affordable, he is pitching in a good ballpark, and the Royals aren’t an offense that is potent outside of a couple of hitters.

Quick Breakdown: Wacha is viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

Jason Vargas
jason-vargas-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 3.96 2.25 23.4% 6.4% 36.4% 33.3% 15.2%
2017 21 4.73 3.10 17.9% 6.6% 38.2% 30.2% 18.6%
L30 4 5.29 5.79 16.1% 10.3% 42.2% 35.9% 17.2%

Vargas has been a regression candidate for most of the season and we’ve finally started to see it happen in his last four starts. During that stretch, he has a 5.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. Bad form mixed in with a matchup against eight right-handed hitters makes Vargas an easy fade in all formats. The fact that he’s a home underdog is all we need to know.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Vargas in cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals made quick work of Ian Kennedy last night. I didn’t mind him as a deep GPP option and knew that his range of potential outcomes was wide. When it comes to Jason Vargas, I see more downside than upside, at least from a pitching standpoint. That’s good news for the Cardinals’ offense. Vargas has been tough on right-handed batters, but he’s been lucky as well. Yadier Molina is my highlighted play in this game. He currently owns a .431 xwOBA with a 47% hard contact rate against lefties this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.304 0.388 0.122 39.0% 16.8% 18.9% 38.6% 1B $3,700 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.406 0.351 0.286 36.2% 13.2% 23.7% 52.2% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 CF $8,700
3 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.408 0.317 0.359 26.9% 11.4% 29.5% 46.2% SS $3,200 2B/SS $4,300 3B $8,400
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.362 0.339 0.222 33.3% 6.7% 15.7% 34.8% 3B $2,700 3B $2,700 3B $5,400
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.361 0.431 0.264 47.0% 3.7% 11.1% 30.3% C $3,300 C $3,800 C $7,500
6 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.284 0.325 0.145 37.1% 10.6% 16.5% 41.9% OF $2,600 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
7 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.413 0.446 0.265 37.0% 12.8% 17.9% 40.7% OF $2,600 1B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
8 Luke Voit RIGHT 0.216 0.344 0.174 41.2% 0.0% 26.1% 64.7% 1B $2,300 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
9 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.274 0.356 0.164 42.9% 9.0% 28.4% 26.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,000 LF $6,000

Elite Plays – Yadier Molina

Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham, Paul DeJong, Jedd Gyorko

Stackability – YELLOW

Kansas City

The Royals have a mediocre implied run total, but their matchup against Michael Wacha is less than appealing. He has pitched well over his last five starts and they are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Wacha has also held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA in the last two seasons combined.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.328 0.308 0.172 32.1% 3.8% 13.0% 36.2% 2B $3,700 2B $4,200 IF/OF $8,000
2 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.342 0.320 0.132 29.6% 8.5% 17.7% 45.4% OF $4,000 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
3 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.334 0.343 0.127 30.6% 6.5% 11.0% 51.1% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.382 0.376 0.193 32.9% 9.6% 16.1% 51.5% 1B $3,300 1B $3,200 1B $6,300
5 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.365 0.345 0.296 34.9% 5.3% 16.2% 30.2% 3B $3,900 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
6 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.276 0.301 0.202 32.6% 9.5% 31.8% 31.8% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
7 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.230 0.241 0.074 25.5% 1.5% 18.8% 42.7% SS $2,200 SS $2,000 SS $4,000
8 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.254 0.289 0.118 31.5% 7.7% 23.9% 40.7% OF $2,500 OF $2,500 LF $4,800
9 Drew Butera RIGHT 0.318 0.291 0.111 34.0% 6.7% 13.3% 32.6% C $2,200 C $2,300 C $4,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mike Moustakas

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Dodgers at Arizona – 9:40 PM ET

LA Dodgers Arizona
ladodgersmlb Kenta Maeda arizonamlb Zack Godley
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-115 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.309 0.314 30.5% 9.0% 18.7% 40.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.306 25.0% 10.2% 22.8% 58.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.262 0.258 25.8% 4.6% 29.7% 44.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.299 34.4% 5.5% 21.6% 51.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kenta Maeda
kenta-maeda-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.69 3.48 25.0% 7.0% 43.9% 29.0% 20.0%
2017 17 4.03 3.79 23.0% 6.4% 39.5% 26.8% 19.5%
L30 3 4.13 1.06 19.4% 6.0% 51.0% 28.0% 12.0%

Maeda is a viable target in the right matchup and ballpark. He has a decent strikeout rate and he induces a lot of soft and medium contact. Unfortunately, he draws a tough matchup against the Diamondbacks in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. There is more risk than potential reward here.

Quick Breakdown: Maeda can be avoided in all formats.

Zack Godley
zachary-godley-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 9 4.16 6.39 17.9% 7.5% 53.8% 32.1% 17.9%
2017 15 3.57 2.86 26.0% 7.9% 56.1% 28.3% 20.8%
L30 4 3.27 3.65 30.7% 7.9% 46.7% 24.2% 21.0%

Godley continues to pitch well and he continues to be under-owned in all formats. I’m not sure what he has to do to prove that he’s the real deal, but it’s certainly fine by me if people keep avoiding him. Godley’s matchup against the Dodgers doesn’t look great on paper, but their current roster is 5-for-41 with 11 strikeouts against him. Godley has a high strikeout rate, a high ground ball rate, and he induces a lot of soft and medium contact. He might not be on the same level as Corey Kluber or Chris Sale, but he’s certainly in play tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Godley is viable in both cash games and tournaments, although I prefer him as an SP2.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark against a right-handed pitcher and yet I have zero interest in their offense. Zack Godley has a high strikeout rate, a high ground ball rate, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA. The Dodgers are a hard pass for me tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.388 0.335 0.242 35.4% 9.5% 27.5% 38.9% OF $4,100 2B/OF $5,000 2B $9,900
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.378 0.404 0.209 48.4% 14.5% 20.9% 42.7% SS $3,900 SS $4,800 SS $9,200
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.366 0.383 0.105 34.1% 11.9% 10.6% 29.6% 3B $3,800 3B $4,400 3B $8,700
4 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.398 0.371 0.372 46.8% 12.4% 28.2% 31.5% 1B $3,900 1B/OF $5,200 IF/OF $10,200
5 Joc Pederson LEFT 0.357 0.362 0.240 32.9% 12.3% 20.0% 49.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
6 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.254 0.289 0.032 32.1% 14.4% 28.3% 46.2% 2B $3,300 2B/3B $3,500 2B $6,800
7 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.338 0.288 0.220 36.6% 6.1% 27.1% 41.4% C $2,800 C $3,400 C $6,600
8 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.381 0.357 0.274 36.0% 9.4% 19.5% 46.0% OF $3,100 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
9 Kenta Maeda RIGHT 0.193 0.132 0.050 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 64.7% P $8,400 P $7,300 P $14,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Arizona

It’s rare that we find a game with a high total that is being played in a hitter’s park that has little fantasy appeal, but here we are. Kenta Maeda isn’t a pitcher that we love targeting hitters against, as he has held both lefties and righties under a .320 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate in the last two seasons. David Peralta and Jake Lamb are both intriguing one-offs, but there are better matchups to target in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.355 0.321 0.157 36.0% 7.1% 14.7% 54.5% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
2 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.348 0.323 0.169 39.2% 6.7% 20.0% 45.4% OF $3,600 OF $4,400 CF $8,700
3 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.409 0.383 0.286 35.8% 15.2% 20.7% 40.7% 3B $3,600 3B $4,600 3B $8,800
4 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.437 0.407 0.290 45.5% 15.2% 22.3% 44.5% 1B $4,500 1B $5,500 1B $10,800
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.371 0.391 0.291 45.2% 11.6% 25.8% 43.8% OF $4,000 OF $4,900 RF $9,600
6 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.338 0.323 0.174 39.2% 12.8% 21.7% 40.0% 2B $2,600 2B/OF $2,800 2B $5,400
7 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.308 0.333 0.216 31.0% 7.1% 17.9% 34.1% SS $2,800 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
8 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.296 0.278 0.217 36.9% 9.2% 38.9% 35.4% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,700
9 Zack Godley RIGHT 0.071 0.085 0.000 8.3% 4.0% 48.0% 55.6% P $8,900 P $7,600 P $15,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – David Peralta, Jake Lamb

Stackability – ORANGE

Seattle at Oakland – 10:05 PM ET

Seattle Oakland
seattlemlb Ariel Miranda oaklandmlb Kendall Graveman
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SEA-107 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.328 0.324 31.5% 8.1% 17.5% 43.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.336 0.363 31.8% 8.6% 14.8% 46.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.314 32.0% 7.7% 20.2% 29.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.307 0.330 27.9% 3.6% 13.3% 56.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ariel Miranda
ariel-miranda-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 4.77 3.88 19.0% 7.8% 31.2% 37.1% 17.7%
2017 22 4.78 4.41 19.9% 7.7% 32.9% 29.6% 21.5%
L30 4 4.01 5.56 25.3% 3.3% 24.6% 35.4% 15.4%

Miranda has been an easy fade this season. He has a below-average strikeout rate and he has an extreme fly-ball rate that can get him into trouble. It will be interesting to see what happens tonight, as he faces an A’s offense that has the highest fly-ball rate of any team in baseball. On a positive note, this is a good ballpark for pitchers, as it is one of the toughest parks to hit home runs in. I likely won’t end up with any Miranda shares, but he’s at the very least a deep GPP dart.

Quick Breakdown: Miranda isn’t a core play or even one that I may use, but he might be worth a look if you are making more than ten lineups.

Kendall Graveman
kendall-graveman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,300
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 4.57 4.11 13.7% 6.0% 52.1% 29.1% 17.0%
2017 9 4.83 4.96 15.3% 7.2% 48.8% 33.1% 19.4%
L30 1 7.23 31.50 {background:#FFD0D0; color:black}=. 0.0% 6.7% 28.6% 35.7% 14.3%

Graveman has struggled all season and doesn’t fit the mold of what we are looking for from a pitcher. He has a high SIERA and a low strikeout rate, which really limits his floor and his ceiling. The Mariners aren’t the most potent offense in baseball, but it would take a near perfect start for Graveman to pay off his salary and I’m not expecting that to happen.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Graveman in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners draw an exploitable matchup against Kendall Graveman, but they are facing him in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. This might not be the best stack in the slate, but there are some viable one-off targets here. In the last two seasons, Graveman has allowed a .363 xwOBA to lefties and a .330 xwOBA to righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.341 0.303 0.123 27.2% 8.6% 22.7% 42.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
2 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.342 0.281 0.123 25.4% 3.9% 17.9% 58.1% SS $3,800 SS $4,100 SS $8,100
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.363 0.387 0.227 38.4% 9.7% 10.7% 51.8% 2B $3,500 2B $4,300 2B $8,400
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.361 0.358 0.243 37.6% 7.4% 21.1% 41.9% OF $4,500 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.323 0.380 0.183 39.7% 9.4% 15.8% 31.4% 3B $4,000 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
6 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.394 0.389 0.271 32.1% 14.7% 22.7% 31.6% 1B $3,000 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
7 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.318 0.284 0.128 18.8% 7.3% 15.7% 44.2% OF $2,700 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
8 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.315 0.303 0.242 37.5% 7.7% 39.4% 30.4% C $2,100 C $2,600 C $5,100
9 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.168 0.207 0.060 25.5% 2.9% 29.0% 44.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 CF $6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Oakland

The A’s draw a boom or bust matchup against Ariel Miranda. We have an extreme fly-ball pitcher that is facing an extreme fly-ball offense. This will likely lead to a lot of fly-ball outs or a few home runs. Rather than trying to stack the A’s, I will try to capture the home run upside through one-off targets. Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Ryon Healy, Chad Pinder, and Matt Chapman all have a .330+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.322 0.295 0.146 23.6% 8.2% 17.5% 40.8% OF $3,100 OF $4,500 CF $8,800
2 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.304 0.282 0.075 41.4% 13.0% 23.9% 34.5% SS $3,300 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.306 0.332 0.108 31.3% 12.6% 20.0% 40.6% 2B $2,700 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.285 0.391 0.141 54.9% 15.8% 30.5% 39.2% OF $4,100 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
5 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.431 0.358 0.291 34.3% 3.4% 18.0% 34.3% 1B $3,100 1B/3B $3,400 3B $6,600
6 Chad Pinder RIGHT 0.288 0.343 0.170 36.4% 7.5% 30.2% 24.2% OF $2,800 2B/SS $3,700 2B $7,200
7 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.291 0.364 0.206 35.0% 8.1% 37.8% 10.0% 3B $3,100 3B $2,500 3B $4,800
8 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.252 0.236 0.194 19.2% 2.7% 27.0% 30.8% OF $2,700 OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
9 Dustin Garneau RIGHT 0.253 0.204 0.194 26.1% 0.0% 36.8% 31.8% C $2,100 C $2,900 C $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Ryon Healy, Chad Pinder, Matt Chapman

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at LA Angels – 10:07 PM ET

Baltimore LA Angels
baltimoremlb Jeremy Hellickson laangelsmlb Parker Bridwell
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAA-115 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.330 0.348 28.5% 8.9% 16.2% 31.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.364 0.388 37.4% 8.8% 12.0% 38.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.302 0.309 27.2% 3.4% 18.6% 44.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.293 0.338 35.8% 4.7% 20.2% 35.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeremy Hellickson
jeremy-hellickson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.15 3.71 20.0% 5.8% 40.7% 25.9% 20.8%
2017 21 5.30 4.45 13.6% 6.2% 34.6% 30.5% 18.6%
L30 3 4.28 4.24 21.4% 5.7% 28.6% 34.0% 20.0%

Hellickson struggled in Philadelphia and he will likely struggle in his time with Baltimore as well. He now pitches in a tougher division and will have to face better offenses. He gets somewhat of a break tonight against the Angels, but he doesn’t have any fantasy appeal in a 15-game slate. The Angels have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any team in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Hellickson in all formats.

Parker Bridwell
parker-bridwell-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 4.53 13.50 20.0% 6.7% 20.0% 54.6% 9.1%
2017 9 4.94 3.20 15.9% 6.7% 38.1% 35.5% 13.1%
L30 4 4.54 3.16 19.0% 6.0% 35.1% 28.0% 16.0%

Bridwell has a 3.20 ERA in nine starts this season, but his advanced numbers don’t quite line up. During that stretch, he has a 4.94 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. Regression could be an issue moving forward, even though Bridwell has shown some upside in the minors. I’d like to say he’s an easy fade in all formats, but he gets to face at least seven right-handed hitters tonight against the Orioles. Not only that, but he gets to face them in a good ballpark and in a game where he’s a slight favorite.

Quick Breakdown: Bridwell has some appeal as a cheap SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The sample size is still small (nine starts), but Parker Bridwell has allowed a .338 xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. The issue here is the ballpark and the fact that there are 14 other games on the schedule. If you have a strong feeling about one of these Orioles’ hitters, I’m not going to talk you off of them, but there are better matchups to exploit.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.330 0.309 0.184 31.8% 3.6% 16.9% 45.7% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.327 0.356 0.197 37.5% 8.8% 17.7% 42.1% 3B $4,200 3B $4,300 3B $8,400
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.376 0.324 0.237 33.1% 4.8% 20.3% 40.6% 2B $4,100 2B $4,400 2B $8,400
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.332 0.332 0.267 42.0% 13.1% 36.0% 32.4% 1B $3,600 1B $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.403 0.351 0.269 34.3% 6.9% 24.1% 52.4% OF $3,500 1B/OF $3,800 1B $7,600
6 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.339 0.320 0.193 45.4% 5.7% 31.7% 47.5% SS $3,200 SS $4,000 SS $7,800
7 Seth Smith LEFT 0.341 0.353 0.186 35.8% 9.5% 21.3% 41.5% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 LF $6,800
8 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.325 0.329 0.189 35.2% 5.4% 25.4% 43.8% C $3,100 C $3,900 C $7,600
9 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.263 0.238 0.132 24.0% 1.8% 28.8% 38.9% OF $2,700 OF $2,700 RF $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Angels

The Angels draw a decent matchup against Jeremy Hellickson, but they are still the Angels. Outside of Mike Trout, are there really any hitters that we want to target from this lineup? Cameron Maybin offers decent value batting leadoff and Kole Calhoun is dirt cheap across the industry, but they are both secondary options in the outfield.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.323 0.323 0.164 27.6% 15.4% 18.8% 58.6% OF $2,600 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.474 0.447 0.385 42.3% 16.8% 19.3% 34.9% OF $5,100 OF $5,600 CF $10,800
3 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.283 0.308 0.167 33.7% 5.5% 15.6% 43.8% 1B $2,800 1B $3,300 1B $6,600
4 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.302 0.313 0.128 32.6% 9.3% 21.7% 43.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
5 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.356 0.319 0.165 32.6% 6.1% 9.9% 51.8% SS $3,400 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
6 Luis Valbuena LEFT 0.282 0.298 0.181 34.5% 9.5% 24.8% 38.9% 3B $2,100 1B/3B $2,300 3B $4,500
7 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.273 0.338 0.092 31.9% 5.3% 19.8% 33.0% 1B $2,700 1B $3,500 1B $6,800
8 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.287 0.280 0.173 27.5% 2.5% 24.4% 47.8% C $2,000 C $2,300 C $4,400
9 Kaleb Cowart SWITCH 0.473 0.389 0.300 50.0% 5.9% 20.6% 34.8% 2B $2,800 2B/3B $2,200 3B $4,400

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Cameron Maybin, Kole Calhoun

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs at San Francisco – 10:15 PM ET

Chicago Cubs San Francisco
cubsmlb Jose Quintana sanfranciscomlb Ty Blach
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-160 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.273 0.279 31.8% 4.4% 23.9% 50.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.263 0.308 32.8% 7.1% 11.0% 55.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.310 0.303 33.2% 7.7% 23.2% 38.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.322 0.307 31.0% 4.9% 12.9% 43.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Quintana
jose-quintana-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $10,500 Salary: $20,400
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.01 3.20 21.6% 6.0% 40.4% 32.7% 18.6%
2017 22 3.94 4.42 26.0% 8.5% 42.4% 33.1% 17.4%
L30 5 2.87 4.30 34.8% 6.8% 37.9% 44.1% 11.8%

Quintana has really pitched well in his last five starts, posting a 2.87 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35%. He now gets to pitch in a National League ballpark (no DH) and he gets to face a Giants’ offense that is ranked 28th in team wOBA against southpaws this season. I have Quintana in that second tier of pitching options tonight. He’s right there with Zack Godley, right below Corey Kluber and Chris Sale.

Quick Breakdown: Quintana is viable in all formats, but he’s a little pricey on DraftKings.

Ty Blach
tyson-blach-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 2 4.46 1.06 16.1% 8.1% 57.8% 29.8% 25.5%
2017 18 5.09 4.24 11.9% 5.2% 45.3% 31.7% 19.7%
L30 4 4.79 3.10 14.7% 4.3% 39.6% 36.2% 14.9%

Blach has a 12% strikeout rate on the season and he is facing a Cubs’ offense that is ranked fourth in team wOBA against left-handed pitching. He should be one of the easiest fades in the slate, right? Everything points to a fade, but the $5,100 price tag on DraftKings has me somewhat interested. I’m not expecting a lot of strikeouts for Blach, but he can keep it on the ground and he’s playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. He allows you to afford some big bats while still anchoring your lineups with Chris Sale or Corey Kluber.

Quick Breakdown: Blach is a deep tournament play on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs hit left-handed pitching well and draw a favorable matchup against Ty Blach. While I may have a share or two of Blach in tournaments, I will also have a few of these right-handed hitters. Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, and Albert Almora all bat from the right side and all have a .350+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.255 0.286 0.149 30.9% 10.5% 17.1% 50.9% OF $3,100 2B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.407 0.446 0.259 35.8% 23.9% 16.8% 41.8% 3B $4,000 3B $5,000 IF/OF $9,900
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.415 0.385 0.318 34.1% 11.5% 13.0% 43.8% 1B $4,400 1B $5,100 1B $9,900
4 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.405 0.389 0.268 34.2% 13.9% 16.5% 55.3% C $3,700 C $4,800 IF/OF $9,200
5 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.403 0.358 0.183 35.6% 13.4% 14.6% 44.8% OF $2,000 OF $2,800 CF $5,400
6 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.363 0.315 0.301 38.3% 6.7% 26.7% 50.0% 2B $3,200 2B/SS $4,400 2B $8,400
7 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.294 0.254 0.125 27.9% 4.8% 22.6% 45.9% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 RF $6,600
8 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.336 0.254 0.203 20.0% 4.4% 29.4% 38.6% OF $2,800 2B/OF $4,600 IF/OF $9,000
9 Jose Quintana LEFT 0.292 0.203 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 0.0% P $8,600 P $10,500 P $20,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, and Albert Almora

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

San Francisco

The Giants have struggled offensively all season. Tonight they face a very good left-handed pitcher in Jose Quintana, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA and under a 34% hard contact rate in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.243 0.247 0.049 16.4% 5.6% 18.0% 56.1% OF $2,800 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
2 Kelby Tomlinson RIGHT 0.270 0.306 0.000 18.4% 14.5% 16.4% 36.4% 2B $2,300 3B/SS $2,700 2B $5,400
3 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.445 0.383 0.240 35.9% 16.1% 9.7% 35.9% C $3,400 1B/C $3,800 C $7,600
4 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.321 0.352 0.170 39.6% 7.8% 13.8% 45.1% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 RF $6,600
5 Pablo Sandoval SWITCH 0.158 0.154 0.000 25.0% 4.8% 19.0% 56.3% 1B $2,000 3B $3,200 3B $6,300
6 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.297 0.314 0.167 31.3% 7.5% 17.0% 38.8% SS $2,600 SS $2,800 SS $5,400
7 Gorkys Hernandez RIGHT 0.288 0.300 0.082 30.3% 9.3% 19.6% 35.6% OF $2,600 OF $2,700 CF $5,200
8 Joe Panik LEFT 0.288 0.276 0.062 21.7% 7.3% 13.7% 51.1% 2B $2,600 2B $3,000 2B $6,000
9 Ty Blach LEFT 0.141 0.261 0.071 16.7% 0.0% 25.0% 36.4% P $7,400 P $5,100 P $10,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Buster Posey

Stackability – RED

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious