MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 8th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-08-09 02:01:33

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Miami at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Miami								Washington
			Vance Worley							A.J. Cole
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-135							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.336	0.309	35.9%	10.2%	16.9%	48.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.380	0.303	31.6%	13.0%	20.0%	32.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.330	0.318	34.0%	6.9%	15.7%	50.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.302	0.289	22.5%	6.9%	22.6%	35.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Vance Worley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$4,700	Salary:		$9,200
	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30
	2016	4	4.79	3.53	15.3%	9.6%	48.1%	31.6%	15.2%
	2017	6	4.12	5.31	18.3%	6.3%	51.6%	41.9%	14.0%
	L30	2	3.52	3.60	15.3%	5.1%	65.2%	39.1%	15.2%

Tuesdays are always fun because we get a full slate of games that are all played in the evening. This creates a massive 15 game slate and some big tournaments across the industry. This is a star-studded slate when it comes to pitching, so we won’t spend a ton of time on the ones that aren’t worthy of a spot in your lineups. Worley certainly fits that bill, as he has a low strikeout rate with a hard contact rate of 42% this season. He offers no fantasy appeal against the Nationals, who are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Worley in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
A.J. Cole
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$11,200
	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30
	2016	8	4.33	5.17	23.2%	8.3%	31.9%	25.7%	18.6%
	2017	2	6.50	4.91	14.3%	16.3%	41.2%	32.4%	20.6%
	L30	1	5.92	9.00	20.0%	16.0%	31.3%	31.3%	31.3%

Cole has been shelled in his first two starts this season. I’d like to say that his minor league numbers are better, but a 5.66 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 17% isn’t going to cut it. He may be a favorite tonight against the Marlins, but that has more to do with the offense behind him than it does anything else. He’ll be lucky to be eligible for the win and even if he manages to pick up the W, his strikeout upside is limited in this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cole in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

There are very few times during the course of the season when a game in Nationals Park has an over/under of 10.0 runs. We should take advantage while we can. We have two bad pitchers on the mound. The Marlins are facing A.J. Cole, who hasn’t had any success at the major league level. Miami will be the overlooked team in this game and while I don’t love a complete stack, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and J.T. Realmuto are all viable plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.319	0.266	0.076	20.2%	5.2%	13.7%	56.0%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,500	2B	$8,800
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.399	0.392	0.319	38.8%	10.3%	25.3%	41.4%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,500	RF	$10,800
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.346	0.361	0.154	38.8%	12.3%	19.1%	55.7%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,600
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.396	0.375	0.283	44.7%	7.9%	23.0%	44.7%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,600	LF	$9,000
5	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.342	0.337	0.160	31.5%	6.0%	16.3%	50.9%	C	$3,300	C	$3,700	C	$7,200
6	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.287	0.291	0.158	33.7%	5.5%	18.5%	35.3%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,200
7	Tomas Telis	SWITCH	0.252	0.292	0.167	53.3%	0.0%	16.7%	40.0%	1B	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,200
8	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.302	0.292	0.034	17.5%	9.2%	9.2%	50.0%	SS	$2,000	3B/SS	$2,400	2B	$4,800
9	Vance Worley	RIGHT	0.250	0.159	0.000	14.3%	0.0%	30.0%	75.0%	P	$5,800	P	$4,700	P	$9,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals have one of the highest implied run totals in the slate. While these things don’t always play out as expected, it’s hard not to like their matchup against Vance Worley. The Nationals mash right-handed pitching and Worley has allowed a 34%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Worley has blowup potential and so do the Nationals. This is a viable stack in tournaments and you can target their batters in cash games as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Goodwin	LEFT	0.310	0.309	0.242	33.3%	9.1%	24.0%	40.1%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,100
2	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.266	0.278	0.078	21.2%	8.1%	20.6%	56.5%	SS	$3,000	2B/SS	$3,900	2B	$7,800
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.459	0.436	0.348	36.4%	16.8%	17.1%	36.4%	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,300	RF	$10,400
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.381	0.374	0.252	40.5%	6.5%	21.4%	47.7%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,500	1B	$8,700
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.403	0.375	0.261	35.4%	8.0%	8.6%	32.5%	2B	$3,900	2B	$5,200	2B	$10,000
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.392	0.368	0.238	33.6%	14.3%	14.3%	36.5%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,800	3B	$9,300
7	Adam Lind	LEFT	0.369	0.375	0.234	40.5%	7.6%	15.3%	45.0%	OF	$2,200	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,800
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.278	0.294	0.123	31.9%	6.4%	20.1%	39.6%	C	$3,000	C	$3,300	C	$6,600
9	A.J. Cole	RIGHT	0.000	0.169	0.000	50.0%	0.0%	33.3%	100.0%	P	$6,500	P	$5,700	P	$11,200

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Wilmer Difo, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Detroit								Pittsburgh
			Matt Boyd							Chad Kuhl
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-170							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.294	0.295	22.7%	8.3%	15.9%	55.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.367	0.337	36.5%	9.9%	19.0%	38.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.351	0.326	35.3%	7.9%	18.9%	35.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.295	0.302	29.8%	7.3%	18.1%	48.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Boyd
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$11,700
	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30
	2016	18	4.38	4.53	19.9%	7.0%	38.1%	30.0%	19.2%
	2017	15	5.11	5.35	16.6%	9.0%	40.8%	36.7%	20.5%
	L30	4	4.50	4.56	22.2%	8.1%	31.8%	22.1%	30.9%

Boyd is typically one of my favorite pitchers to target hitters against. He has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he has allowed a ton of hard contact this season. While he gets to pitch against a National League offense in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, he’s still an easy fade tonight against the Pirates. On the season, Pittsburgh is ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid the Boyd.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chad Kuhl
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$13,500
	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30
	2016	14	4.50	4.20	17.6%	6.6%	44.3%	33.0%	19.6%
	2017	22	4.84	4.53	19.1%	9.8%	43.3%	32.9%	17.8%
	L30	5	4.76	3.00	21.6%	12.1%	48.0%	34.2%	26.3%

I wrote off Trevor Williams a little too early in yesterday’s Grind Down. I was worried about his reverse-splits against a right-handed heavy Tigers’ lineup. We’ve now seen Detroit struggle against Ubaldo Jimenez and Williams, both of which are below-average starters. Kuhl isn’t having a great season overall, but he is very tough on right-handed hitters (.302 xwOBA with a 30% hard contact rate). That should bode well for his matchup tonight against the Tigers, who have all but given up on their season.

Quick Breakdown: Kuhl needs to face a right-handed heavy lineup to deserve consideration and he draws one tonight against the Tigers. He’s viable as a cheap SP2, especially in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers are playing on the road, they lose the use of the DH, and they are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. They are also facing Chad Kuhl, who is significantly better against righties than he is against lefties. All in all, this is a bad spot for the Tigers’ offense. Jim Adduci is a decent value play in the outfield, but I’m not sure we have to reach that far into the value barrel in a 15-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.307	0.316	0.120	34.0%	10.3%	12.2%	33.2%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,600
2	Jim Adduci	LEFT	0.330	0.346	0.188	52.2%	11.1%	25.0%	56.5%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,800	LF	$5,600
3	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.357	0.352	0.232	43.0%	11.8%	28.7%	37.5%	OF	$4,100	OF	$5,300	LF	$10,400
4	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.312	0.387	0.177	45.6%	10.2%	20.4%	41.9%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,800
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.294	0.336	0.145	46.1%	8.2%	26.0%	39.9%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,200
6	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.342	0.317	0.127	34.4%	8.2%	22.4%	48.3%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,900
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.265	0.302	0.120	39.8%	7.2%	25.7%	38.1%	C	$2,200	C	$2,700	C	$5,200
8	Dixon Machado	RIGHT	0.381	0.321	0.098	40.0%	4.7%	9.4%	60.0%	2B	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,900	SS	$5,600
9	Matt Boyd	LEFT	0.438	0.095	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	P	$6,500	P	$5,900	P	$11,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jim Adduci

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates always seem to have higher implied run totals than they should, especially when they are playing at home. Even though they draw a favorable matchup against Matt Boyd, I’m always hesitant to stack this lineup. They don’t have enough home run upside to win tournaments, especially in full slates. With all of that said, Boyd has allowed a .326 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Andrew McCutchen and David Freese both own a .380+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.207	0.249	0.050	28.6%	7.0%	27.9%	51.9%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600	CF	$9,000
2	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.363	0.312	0.176	30.3%	8.5%	14.2%	41.9%	2B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,900	2B	$7,800
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.488	0.438	0.442	45.1%	18.9%	14.2%	32.4%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,700	RF	$9,300
4	David Freese	RIGHT	0.384	0.388	0.167	38.9%	17.8%	21.1%	57.4%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,000
5	Jose Osuna	RIGHT	0.360	0.301	0.211	29.9%	6.2%	11.1%	53.7%	OF	$2,800	1B/OF	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,800
6	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.285	0.258	0.089	19.7%	5.9%	21.2%	45.9%	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,800	RF	$5,600
7	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.292	0.296	0.107	34.9%	9.5%	20.6%	62.8%	C	$2,500	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.292	0.309	0.161	41.1%	11.1%	15.2%	52.8%	SS	$2,100	SS	$3,100	SS	$6,000
9	Chad Kuhl	RIGHT	0.125	0.181	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	37.5%	75.0%	P	$6,300	P	$6,800	P	$13,500

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, Josh Harrison, David Freese, Jose Osuna

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Toronto
			CC Sabathia							J.A. Happ
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-125							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.284	0.274	17.5%	9.4%	22.9%	54.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.281	0.321	32.7%	5.9%	18.0%	49.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.314	0.300	28.7%	8.4%	18.5%	49.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.302	0.312	30.5%	7.5%	21.5%	42.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
CC Sabathia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30
	2016	30	4.35	3.91	19.8%	8.5%	50.1%	24.7%	24.0%
	2017	18	4.65	3.81	18.4%	8.8%	50.7%	30.6%	22.6%
	L30	4	5.09	3.80	15.6%	11.1%	55.4%	16.9%	35.4%

Sabathia has a high SIERA and a below-average strikeout rate, but he’s still a decent real-life pitcher. He has a high ground ball rate and he is very good at inducing soft and medium contact. A lot of people that play DFS want to stack against him, but he hasn’t allowed more than four earned runs in any of his last 11 starts. I’m not saying to target him in a road start against a right-handed heavy Blue Jays’ offense, but we might want to rethink a Toronto stack.

Quick Breakdown: Sabathia doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to warrant consideration tonight.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
J.A. Happ
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$14,800
	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30
	2016	32	4.28	3.18	20.5%	7.5%	42.5%	31.6%	17.8%
	2017	15	4.10	3.92	21.6%	6.5%	46.6%	29.7%	20.7%
	L30	5	4.94	4.82	17.7%	10.0%	49.5%	27.7%	23.4%

Happ is coming off of a really nice start against the White Sox where he struck out ten batters while only giving up a single earned run. While it’s good to see him bust out of his slump, I don’t like targeting pitchers against the Yankees. New York has struggled a bit against left-handed pitching this season, but they still have plenty of power in their lineup that can ruin a pitcher’s outing with a swing or two of their bats.

Quick Breakdown: There are better options than Happ in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees are playing in a decent ballpark and they draw a mediocre matchup against J.A. Happ. While he has been tough on right-handed hitters in the last two seasons, he hasn’t been in the best of form in his last five starts. Happ induces a lot of soft and medium contact, but the right-handed bats in this Yankees’ lineup have no problem making hard contact. Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Matt Holliday are all in play here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.278	0.290	0.120	21.9%	12.4%	20.6%	47.5%	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,600
2	Clint Frazier	RIGHT	0.345	0.235	0.280	35.3%	0.0%	32.0%	35.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,400
3	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.429	0.471	0.333	42.6%	24.0%	28.0%	34.0%	OF	$4,700	OF	$4,600	RF	$8,800
4	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.342	0.405	0.250	38.6%	13.0%	23.2%	38.6%	C	$3,300	C	$4,000	C	$7,600
5	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.345	0.339	0.164	44.2%	16.0%	30.9%	48.8%	OF	$2,600	1B	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,200
6	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.290	0.268	0.081	13.7%	3.3%	15.2%	37.5%	SS	$3,400	SS	$3,800	SS	$7,600
7	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.240	0.248	0.089	27.8%	3.8%	26.7%	43.1%	1B	$2,900	3B	$3,200	3B	$6,300
8	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.359	0.397	0.311	39.7%	16.5%	18.7%	20.7%	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,800
9	Ronald Torreyes	RIGHT	0.339	0.248	0.049	18.0%	4.4%	8.9%	64.1%	2B	$2,300	3B/SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Clint Frazier, Matt Holliday, Todd Frazier

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

As alluded to earlier, I’m not going out of my way to target the Blue Jays’ offense tonight against CC Sabathia. He’s no longer an elite pitcher, but he is still very good at inducing ground balls (51%) and soft contact (23%). Since the start of last season, he has held right-handed hitters to a .300 xwOBA and a 29% hard contact rate. This is a still a good ballpark and I will be targeting a few righties as one-off targets, but I will not be stacking Toronto in this spot.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.253	0.269	0.105	25.4%	13.4%	25.9%	46.3%	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
2	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.274	0.347	0.127	32.4%	17.6%	26.5%	29.7%	C	$3,200	C	$3,700	C	$7,200
3	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.339	0.342	0.196	42.9%	19.3%	19.3%	40.0%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,500	3B	$8,700
4	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.484	0.450	0.279	40.8%	13.0%	11.0%	35.5%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,000
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.399	0.377	0.223	42.5%	6.0%	21.0%	60.3%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,800
6	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.335	0.329	0.270	37.5%	5.6%	22.2%	39.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	1B	$7,600
7	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.383	0.345	0.225	35.6%	8.0%	14.2%	36.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,400
8	Rob Refsnyder	RIGHT	0.273	0.334	0.000	22.2%	25.0%	12.5%	44.4%	1B	$2,000	1B/OF	$3,000	1B	$6,000
9	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.268	0.267	0.012	14.1%	11.6%	21.1%	42.9%	2B	$2,400	2B/3B	$2,600	2B	$5,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – YELLOW

San Diego at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
San Diego								Cincinnati
			Luis Perdomo							Sal Romano
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CIN-150							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.372	0.369	37.7%	7.7%	13.2%	53.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.320	0.306	34.3%	13.6%	25.4%	36.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.342	0.295	29.5%	7.5%	19.4%	67.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.367	0.293	24.5%	13.0%	15.9%	58.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luis Perdomo
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$10,800
	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		23 of 30
	2016	20	4.04	5.71	15.9%	7.0%	59.0%	34.0%	16.7%
	2017	19	4.20	4.92	17.4%	8.5%	63.0%	32.6%	17.7%
	L30	4	5.49	6.43	11.0%	9.0%	50.0%	35.0%	17.5%

Perdomo has one of the highest ground ball rates in baseball at 63%. He still doesn’t have the strikeout upside that we are looking for, but he’s taken some steps in the right direction, posing a career high k-rate and swinging strike rate this season. The issue for Perdomo has always been left-handed hitters, as he has allowed a .369 xwOBA since the start of last season. In this ballpark, against at least four lefties from the Reds’ lineup, Perdomo is an easy fade in a 15 game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Perdomo tonight.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sal Romano
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$12,600
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30

	2017	6	5.18	4.88	20.3%	13.3%	49.4%	28.6%	22.6%
	L30	4	5.20	5.03	20.0%	13.3%	50.9%	26.7%	21.7%

Tim Adleman was a single out away from being eligible for the win last night. That would have taken his outing from mediocre to easily reaching value, but that’s baseball for you. It’s constantly tugging at the heart strings. Romano hasn’t been sharp in his first six major league starts, but he does own a 20% strikeout rate. There are no better matchups than the Padres, who are ranked 28th in team wOBA and 29th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. I expect him to be a popular SP2 tonight and if that ends up being the case, I am going to fade.

Quick Breakdown: Romano has some strikeout potential in this matchup, but we still have a below-average pitcher playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

I usually don’t like to pat myself on the back when I get something right, but this one deserves a little pat. In the expert survey (available for premium members), I had Jose Pirela as my sneaky home run call. He hit not one, but two last night against the Reds. The Rockies aren’t an offense that I target often, but I have some interest tonight against Sal Romano. If we find out that Romano is going to be popular, the Padres become nice leverage plays against him. There isn’t anything that is going to stand out from a splits perspective, but Manuel Margo, Carlos Asuaje, Jose Pirela, and Wil Myers are all intriguing one-off targets in this home run-friendly ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Manuel Margot	RIGHT	0.304	0.281	0.142	25.8%	3.9%	22.4%	39.8%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,800
2	Carlos Asuaje	LEFT	0.368	0.315	0.140	31.7%	9.9%	21.5%	30.4%	2B	$2,400	2B	$3,700	SS	$7,200
3	Jose Pirela	RIGHT	0.348	0.292	0.220	31.7%	4.4%	19.0%	43.3%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,800	2B	$7,600
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.344	0.311	0.187	31.2%	9.7%	11.4%	41.0%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,500
5	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.327	0.306	0.216	37.7%	9.3%	28.4%	38.1%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,600
6	Cory Spangenberg	LEFT	0.337	0.303	0.139	29.2%	8.3%	20.8%	45.6%	3B	$2,900	3B/OF	$3,700	2B	$7,200
7	Hunter Renfroe	RIGHT	0.276	0.273	0.196	34.6%	4.1%	32.2%	41.1%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,500
8	Austin Hedges	RIGHT	0.314	0.275	0.253	33.6%	5.5%	28.9%	35.2%	C	$2,500	C	$3,300	C	$6,600
9	Luis Perdomo	RIGHT	0.209	0.161	0.217	12.5%	3.8%	34.6%	57.1%	P	$6,800	P	$5,500	P	$10,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manuel Margot, Carlos Asuaje, Jose Pirela, Wil Myers

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

The Reds are one of the easiest offenses in the slate to breakdown. Batters from one side of the plate can be avoided completely, while batters from the other side of the plate stand out as elite options. Luis Perdomo has some drastically different splits against lefties, allowing a .369 xwOBA with a 38% hard contact rate. Meanwhile, he has held righties to a .295 xwOBA on a 68% ground ball rate (and no, you didn’t read that wrong). Joey Votto has homered in three straight games and is looking like a tough player to fade right now, especially in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.299	0.264	0.092	16.9%	8.6%	20.1%	45.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,500
2	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.382	0.316	0.231	30.1%	13.1%	16.7%	42.0%	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,000
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.429	0.432	0.274	37.3%	17.5%	10.9%	36.8%	1B	$4,300	1B	$5,400	1B	$10,500
4	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.329	0.292	0.236	33.6%	5.0%	27.0%	30.1%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,500	IF/OF	$8,700
5	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.408	0.341	0.285	40.0%	6.5%	21.5%	42.0%	2B	$2,400	2B/OF	$3,800	2B	$7,600
6	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.349	0.341	0.203	30.5%	11.9%	23.1%	42.7%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,500
7	Jesse Winker	LEFT	0.379	0.372	0.226	42.3%	18.4%	13.2%	65.4%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,600
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.317	0.329	0.118	34.1%	9.5%	14.0%	42.1%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900	C	$5,600
9	Sal Romano	RIGHT	0.000	0.087	0.000	16.7%	0.0%	25.0%	100.0%	P	$5,700	P	$6,300	P	$12,600

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Jesse Winker

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Boston								Tampa Bay
			Chris Sale							Austin Pruitt
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-175							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.252	0.248	23.9%	2.7%	30.6%	50.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.318	0.291	26.7%	2.6%	16.7%	48.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.269	0.276	31.8%	5.2%	29.7%	37.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.374	0.341	36.1%	7.6%	20.2%	44.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Sale
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,400	Salary:		$12,600	Salary:		$24,600
	Salary Rank:		2 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	2016	32	3.43	3.34	25.7%	5.0%	41.2%	31.7%	17.0%
	2017	22	2.54	2.70	36.1%	4.7%	36.2%	28.9%	18.0%
	L30	4	2.60	2.45	36.9%	5.8%	35.7%	27.6%	22.4%

Sale should be licking his chops for tonight’s matchup against the Rays, who are ranked 20th in team wOBA and 27th in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. It’s not like Sale needs any help, but now he draws one of the best matchups in the slate and he gets to face them in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. He should be able to improve on his already ridiculous season (2.54 SIERA with a 36% strikeout rate). Sale is expensive, but he has double-digit strikeout upside tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Sale is an elite play in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Austin Pruitt
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$5,200	Salary:		$10,400
	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30

	2017	3	4.01	5.65	18.8%	5.6%	46.2%	32.2%	17.1%
	L30	2	4.15	3.97	22.2%	6.7%	48.4%	34.4%	21.9%

Be careful when you look at Pruitt’s minor league numbers from earlier this season. He only made four starts and five appearances out of the bullpen, so we shouldn’t expect that 35.5% strikeout rate to be sustainable. His first three major league starts have been decent, but he draws a bad strikeout matchup against the Red Sox. On the season, Boston has the third lowest k-rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: It doesn’t hurt to take a wait and see approach with Pruitt, especially since he is facing the Red Sox.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Austin Pruitt is a rookie pitcher that is only making his fourth career major league start. His potential range of outcomes is wider than most, but this isn’t a spot where I want to stack the Red Sox. They are ranked 20th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and have to face Pruitt in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Hanley Ramirez, and Rafael Devers all have appeal as one-off targets, but this offense doesn’t have enough upside to use them as a full stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.338	0.328	0.198	36.0%	9.4%	10.6%	40.7%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,700	RF	$9,300
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.344	0.343	0.175	37.9%	11.1%	16.0%	37.5%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,500	LF	$8,700
3	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.344	0.275	0.143	25.7%	3.1%	9.7%	53.4%	2B	$3,700	3B/OF	$4,700	3B	$9,200
4	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.328	0.357	0.174	34.7%	8.4%	18.7%	43.0%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,600
5	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.453	0.393	0.313	40.7%	13.5%	13.5%	51.9%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,400
6	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.321	0.268	0.135	31.4%	7.3%	18.6%	47.3%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,900
7	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.326	0.383	0.196	41.9%	10.6%	22.9%	37.7%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,100
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.288	0.283	0.144	36.2%	7.2%	23.7%	36.6%	C	$2,500	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
9	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.309	0.333	0.172	39.1%	9.1%	23.9%	40.3%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Hanley Ramirez, Rafael Devers

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

We’ve had a lot of YELLOW so far in the Stackability ratings, but don’t worry, the Rays will mix it up with a solid RED. They draw the worst matchup in the slate and they struggle with left-handed pitching to begin with. In addition to his elite strikeout rate, Chris Sale has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 xwOBA in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.363	0.280	0.187	29.7%	4.5%	25.0%	49.5%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,200
2	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.326	0.273	0.084	27.0%	13.6%	26.4%	47.9%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.307	0.324	0.185	42.2%	12.9%	22.9%	50.0%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,800
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.359	0.333	0.230	27.7%	13.6%	22.3%	36.9%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,200
5	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.313	0.302	0.200	21.7%	7.1%	7.1%	65.2%	C	$2,000	C	$2,500	C	$4,800
6	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT	0.300	0.341	0.062	39.3%	9.0%	22.5%	47.5%	1B	$2,100	3B	$2,700	3B	$5,400
7	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.289	0.284	0.135	38.2%	2.5%	12.5%	50.0%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,300	SS	$4,400
8	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.298	0.285	0.172	39.5%	9.4%	23.4%	45.2%	2B	$2,300	2B	$2,400	2B	$4,800
9	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.340	0.281	0.225	37.0%	6.6%	22.4%	46.3%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,700	CF	$5,200

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 8th

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Stackability Rating System:

Miami at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – YELLOW

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Wilmer Difo, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jim Adduci

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, Josh Harrison, David Freese, Jose Osuna

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Clint Frazier, Matt Holliday, Todd Frazier

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – YELLOW

San Diego at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manuel Margot, Carlos Asuaje, Jose Pirela, Wil Myers

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Jesse Winker

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Hanley Ramirez, Rafael Devers

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

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