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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-07-06 02:42:32

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Cincinnati Chicago Cubs
cincinnatimlb Brandon Finnegan cubsmlb John Lackey
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC -240 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.331 4 14.2% 12.3% SP vs. Left 0.316 15 16.2% 8.5%
SP vs. Right 0.316 18 20.0% 11.1% SP vs. Right 0.268 17 26.0% 4.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brandon Finnegan
brandon-finnegan-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $5,400
FPPG: 20.4 FPPG: 10.0
Pitcher Rating: 36.3 Pitcher Rank: 28
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 95.8 5.17 6.00 19.3% 12.6% 10.2% 37.7% 42.9% 44.3%
2016 17 96.0 5.35 4.48 16.6% 11.8% 9.0% 39.4% 36.6% 36.6%
2015 4 187.8 3.77 3.56 22.8% 10.7% 9.7% 54.3% 29.1% 30.8%

Finnegan is yet another Reds’ pitcher that we can pick on in daily fantasy baseball. In 17 starts this season, he has a 5.35 SIERA with a strikeout of 16.6%. He has a high fly ball rate and he gives up a lot of hard contact. Of the 30 pitchers in action today, he grades out as the third worst fantasy option. The Reds’ offense seems to love facing the Reds’ pitching staff and Finnegan comes into the game as a huge underdog on the road.

John Lackey
john-lackey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $10,800
FPPG: 37.8 FPPG: 20.8
Pitcher Rating: 80.3 Pitcher Rank: 5
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 100.6 3.95 4.25 24.6% 7.9% 9.3% 32.9% 41.8% 35.4%
2016 16 98.1 3.65 3.27 25.9% 7.0% 11.8% 39.4% 38.3% 35.1%
2015 33 94.8 3.90 2.77 19.5% 5.9% 9.4% 46.0% 33.3% 30.1%

Lackey is having a terrific season, posting a 3.65 SIERA (2.93 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 25.9%. The fact that his ERA is nearly a full run lower than his SIERA does suggest a little regression moving forward, but he has an above-average strikeout rate and he has one of the best offenses in baseball at his back. He draws a favorable matchup against the Reds, who are ranked 28th in team wOBA and 21st in team K% against right-handed pitching. He is a safe option if you are playing in the all-day slate.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds do not hit right-handed pitching well as a team and come into today’s game with the fifth lowest team total on the board. They draw a difficult matchup against John Lackey, who has held left-handed hitters to a .316 wOBA and right-handed hitters to a .268 wOBA over the last two seasons. With a full slate, the Reds’ offense is an easy fade.

Projected Lineup

Brandon Finnegan
brandon-finnegan-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $5,400
FPPG: 20.4 FPPG: 10.0
Pitcher Rating: 36.3 Pitcher Rank: 28
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 95.8 5.17 6.00 19.3% 12.6% 10.2% 37.7% 42.9% 44.3%
2016 17 96.0 5.35 4.48 16.6% 11.8% 9.0% 39.4% 36.6% 36.6%
2015 4 187.8 3.77 3.56 22.8% 10.7% 9.7% 54.3% 29.1% 30.8%

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are ranked fourth in both team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching this season. They come into today’s game with the highest run projection of any team on the schedule. They draw an excellent matchup against Brandon Finnegan, who has allowed a .331 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .316 wOBA to right-handed hitters. If you are playing in the all-day slate, you may want to consider a mini-Cubs’ stack for cash games and GPPs.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.393 0.180 0.305 2B $4,000 2B $4,700
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.376 0.268 0.475 3B $3,800 3B/OF $5,400
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.370 0.205 0.414 1B $3,300 1B $5,100
4 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.431 0.235 0.426 C $2,800 C/OF $4,200
5 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.249 0.137 0.386 SS $2,200 SS $3,600
6 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.311 0.097 0.274 OF $3,400 OF $3,300
7 David Ross RIGHT 0.322 0.185 0.261 C $2,200 C $2,700
8 John Lackey RIGHT 0.156 0.000 0.138 P $9,400 P $10,800
9 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.429 0.224 0.328 SS $2,600 3B/SS $4,000
Team Averages — 0.337 0.170 0.334 — — — —

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Jason Heyward, David Ross

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Atlanta at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Atlanta Philadelphia
atlantamlb Mike Foltynewicz philadelphiamlb Zach Eflin
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI -125 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.409 14 17.5% 7.0% SP vs. Left 0.307 2 4.6% 4.6%
SP vs. Right 0.336 10 21.0% 7.1% SP vs. Right 0.356 2 14.0% 4.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Foltynewicz
michael-foltynewicz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $6,200
FPPG: 25.4 FPPG: 12.9
Pitcher Rating: 48.7 Pitcher Rank: 18
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 1 61.0 6.11 6.00 13.3% 13.3% 11.5% 40.0% 50.0% 20.0%
2016 7 90.6 4.33 3.72 19.5% 6.5% 9.0% 39.4% 37.6% 27.9%
2015 15 98.7 4.30 5.71 19.3% 7.3% 8.9% 33.3% 43.5% 32.5%

Foltynewicz has had some success in the minors, but that has yet to translate over to the majors. In his last 22 starts, he has a SIERA close to 4.30 with a strikeout rate just under 20%. He draws an exploitable matchup tonight against the Phillies, but that doesn’t mean that he immediately becomes a great fantasy option. Vegas has him listed as a small underdog in a game that features an over/under of 8.5 runs. You could potentially look his way in tournaments, but there are better cash game targets.

Zach Eflin
zach-eflin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 12.3 FPPG: 5.2
Pitcher Rating: 34.7 Pitcher Rank: 29
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 4 87.5 5.41 5.75 9.6% 4.3% 5.1% 38.3% 39.5% 27.2%
2016 4 87.5 5.41 5.75 9.6% 4.3% 5.1% 38.3% 39.5% 27.2%

Eflin is making his fourth career major league start. He has really struggled in the majors thus far, posting a 5.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 9.6%. The sample size is obviously small, but he isn’t generating enough swings and misses and he his high fly ball rate could be an issue moving forward. I like his matchup against the Braves, but that’s not enough of a reason to look his way in DFS. Of the two pitchers in this game, I prefer Mike Foltynewicz.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves are ranked dead last in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season, but they draw one of the best matchups on the board. In his first four major league starts, Zach Eflin has allowed 16 runs. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play, although Freddie Freeman is the only one that really stands out as an elite play.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.310 0.110 0.373 2B $2,800 2B $3,400
2 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.336 0.114 0.268 OF $2,700 OF $3,900
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.378 0.239 0.430 1B $3,900 1B $4,900
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.338 0.099 0.319 OF $2,900 OF $3,900
5 Adonis Garcia RIGHT 0.288 0.150 0.172 3B $2,100 3B $3,100
6 Erick Aybar SWITCH 0.281 0.072 0.325 SS $2,600 SS $3,000
7 A.J. Pierzynski LEFT 0.305 0.118 0.222 C $2,300 C $2,900
8 Emilio Bonifacio SWITCH 0.171 0.000 0.169 OF $2,100 2B $2,800
9 Mike Foltynewicz RIGHT 0.086 0.032 0.000 P $6,200 P $6,200
Team Averages — 0.277 0.104 0.253 — — — —

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Jace Peterson, Ender Inciarte

Stackability – NONE

Philadelphia

The Phillies typically have one of the lowest team totals on the board, but they have a slightly above-average total tonight. They draw an exploitable matchup against Mike Foltynewicz, who has allowed a .409 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .336 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. We don’t want to get too carried away with the Phillies’ offense, but there are some nice value plays in this lineup.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.361 0.150 0.370 OF $3,700 OF $4,600
2 Peter Bourjos RIGHT 0.287 0.146 0.533 OF $2,400 OF $3,300
3 Cody Asche LEFT 0.312 0.175 0.393 OF $2,500 OF $3,100
4 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.344 0.202 0.482 3B $3,300 3B $4,200
5 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.249 0.218 0.231 1B $2,800 1B $3,200
6 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.299 0.158 0.541 C $2,700 C $3,600
7 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.289 0.124 0.299 SS $2,400 SS $3,500
8 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.304 0.091 0.488 2B $2,300 2B $3,400
9 Zach Eflin RIGHT 0.207 0.167 0.311 P $5,500 P $4,000
Team Averages — 0.295 0.159 0.405 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Peter Bourjos, Cody Asche, Maikel Franco

Stackability – NONE

Milwaukee at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Milwaukee Washington
milwaukeemlb Zach Davies washingtonmlb Gio Gonzalez
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS -150 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.319 7 20.3% 9.5% SP vs. Left 0.279 2 18.7% 6.0%
SP vs. Right 0.299 7 19.0% 6.9% SP vs. Right 0.325 16 24.0% 9.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zach Davies
zach-davies-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,300
FPPG: 27.9 FPPG: 14.2
Pitcher Rating: 54.6 Pitcher Rank: 14
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 97.0 3.72 3.68 24.6% 6.6% 8.0% 42.5% 37.5% 25.6%
2016 14 92.1 4.13 4.22 20.6% 7.0% 8.0% 46.1% 33.0% 33.6%
2015 6 89.8 4.34 3.71 17.3% 10.8% 10.0% 57.6% 21.2% 32.0%

Davies snapped his string of quality DFS starts, allowing six earned runs in only four innings against the Dodgers. He has been in much better form over the last six weeks, but is still a risky fantasy option at this point. He draws a fairly difficult matchup against the Nationals in Washington. He is listed as a sizable underdog on the road and makes for an easy fade in cash games.

Gio Gonzalez
gio-gonzalez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $7,700
FPPG: 29.2 FPPG: 14.9
Pitcher Rating: 79.3 Pitcher Rank: 8
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 102.2 3.83 6.83 28.1% 11.7% 11.9% 50.0% 22.9% 31.9%
2016 16 99.6 3.84 4.81 24.0% 7.9% 10.0% 47.7% 30.6% 32.7%
2015 31 95.1 3.77 3.79 22.3% 9.1% 9.8% 53.8% 26.6% 28.7%

Gonzalez is coming off of his best start in a month. His indicators this season look good, he has just been a bit unlucky in terms of batted balls. His ERA is a full run higher than his SIERA, which suggests that he should have a better second half of the season. The one thing that has been in his favor has been his strikeout rate of 24% this season. He offers great value tonight against the Brewers, who are ranked 23rd or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against left-handed pitching this season. Gio is worth a look in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers struggle against left-handed pitching, they draw a difficult matchup against Gio Gonzalez, and they are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. With the ninth lowest team total on the board, I will be avoiding all of Milwaukee’s hitters with the potential exception of Ryan Braun in a GPP lineup or two.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.358 0.150 0.310 SS $3,400 SS $4,100
2 Aaron Hill RIGHT 0.279 0.087 0.328 3B $2,800 2B/3B $3,000
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.413 0.241 0.400 OF $3,800 OF $4,900
4 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.276 0.117 0.238 C $3,200 C $3,600
5 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.335 0.252 0.382 1B $2,900 1B $3,800
6 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.273 0.159 0.176 3B $2,400 3B/OF $3,300
7 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.274 0.143 0.315 2B $2,800 2B $2,300
8 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.234 0.028 0.372 OF $2,100 OF $2,600
9 Zach Davies RIGHT 0.093 0.000 0.000 P $6,900 P $6,300
Team Averages — 0.282 0.131 0.280 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ryan Braun

Stackability – NONE

Washington

The Nationals may not have the best numbers against right-handed pitching this season, but they have a sneaky-high team total tonight of 4.54 runs. Zach Davies has pitched well at times this season, but he has also been hit hard. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy both stand out as elite plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ben Revere LEFT 0.300 0.072 0.267 OF $3,600 OF $3,700
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.283 0.125 0.363 OF $4,000 OF $3,600
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.442 0.308 0.389 OF $3,800 OF $4,900
4 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.374 0.219 0.345 2B $3,600 2B $5,200
5 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.319 0.157 0.455 C $3,300 C $4,600
6 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.284 0.161 0.221 1B $2,900 1B $3,200
7 Stephen Drew LEFT 0.297 0.212 0.315 SS $2,700 2B/3B $2,800
8 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.313 0.180 0.560 SS $3,100 SS $4,800
9 Gio Gonzalez LEFT 0.157 0.035 0.000 P $8,900 P $7,700
Team Averages — 0.308 0.163 0.324 — — — —

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ben Revere, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – GPP

Kansas City at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Kansas City Toronto
kansascitymlb Chris Young torontomlb R.A. Dickey
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -160 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.387 23 17.6% 12.2% SP vs. Left 0.315 22 13.3% 8.7%
SP vs. Right 0.253 15 20.1% 6.7% SP vs. Right 0.320 22 16.2% 6.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Young
chrisyoungroy FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $3,000 Salary: $4,600
FPPG: 7.3 FPPG: 8.8
Pitcher Rating: 33.6 Pitcher Rank: 30
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 82.6 5.49 6.75 23.7% 16.5% 9.9% 24.1% 60.3% 50.0%
2016 12 89.8 4.71 6.24 23.2% 11.2% 10.3% 28.0% 55.4% 42.9%
2015 18 110.3 5.15 3.06 16.6% 8.6% 9.4% 25.5% 57.9% 33.4%

Young has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. In 12 starts, he has a 4.71 SIERA with a walk rate of 11.2% and a hard hit contact rate of 42.9%. He has allowed 38 home runs in his last 30 starts and he is facing a powerful Blue Jays’ offense in a hitter-friendly ballpark. The fourth of July may be over, but there could be some fireworks tonight North of the border.

R.A. Dickey
r.a.-dickey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $7,100
FPPG: 24.1 FPPG: 11.8
Pitcher Rating: 42.6 Pitcher Rank: 21
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 94.8 4.85 4.20 14.3% 5.6% 9.5% 42.6% 38.6% 34.7%
2016 17 97.2 4.80 4.21 16.2% 8.1% 9.4% 45.8% 33.8% 31.0%
2015 33 98.9 4.76 3.91 14.3% 6.9% 9.1% 41.9% 37.2% 23.9%

Dickey is a large favorite tonight against the Royals at home, but that has more to do with the Royals’ starting pitcher that it does with his fantasy appeal. He is having a marginal year at best, posting a 4.80 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.2%. There are enough viable options that you don’t need to consider using Dickey tonight. I expect this to be one of the highest scoring games of the night.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals continue to struggle to score runs, but they come into tonight’s game with the 12th highest team total on the board. They see a major ballpark boost playing in the Rogers Centre and they draw a favorable matchup against R.A. Dickey. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .315+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.330 0.165 0.280 OF $2,900 OF $3,200
2 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.302 0.112 0.230 2B $3,100 2B/OF $3,500
3 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.359 0.226 0.638 1B $3,100 1B $4,800
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.374 0.180 0.310 1B $3,700 1B $4,000
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.335 0.199 0.150 C $3,500 C $3,100
6 Paulo Orlando RIGHT 0.315 0.158 0.205 OF $2,300 OF $3,200
7 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.269 0.061 0.373 SS $2,500 SS $3,300
8 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.306 0.127 0.364 3B $2,300 3B $3,300
9 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.297 0.112 0.359 OF $2,200 OF $3,200
Team Averages — 0.321 0.149 0.323 — — — —

Elite Plays – Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

The Blue Jays have the highest team total outside of the Cubs and Chicago is playing in the one and only day game. Toronto could end up scoring ten or more runs in this matchup, as Chris Young continues to get battered by opposing offenses. Young gives up a much higher wOBA to left-handed hitters than he does to right-handed hitters, but you have to consider stacking the Jays in both cash games and GPPs.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.302 0.096 0.314 OF $3,000 OF $3,600
2 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.366 0.197 0.332 2B $2,700 2B $4,100
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.395 0.268 0.505 3B $4,700 3B $5,600
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.386 0.278 0.440 1B $4,300 1B $5,300
5 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.350 0.200 0.268 OF $3,500 OF $4,300
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.328 0.182 0.457 SS $3,100 SS $4,400
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.308 0.176 0.323 C $2,400 C $3,600
8 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.331 0.227 0.201 1B $3,400 1B $3,600
9 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.306 0.136 0.251 OF $2,200 OF $3,400
Team Averages — 0.341 0.196 0.343 — — — —

Elite Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders

Secondary Plays – Devon Travis, Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin / Josh Thole

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Detroit at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Detroit Cleveland
detroitmlb Anibal Sanchez clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE -190 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.318 18 22.2% 10.0% SP vs. Left 0.280 14 27.6% 7.0%
SP vs. Right 0.374 27 17.5% 6.4% SP vs. Right 0.286 14 29.3% 5.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Anibal Sanchez
anibal-sanchez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,100 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 15.5 FPPG: 6.7
Pitcher Rating: 41.6 Pitcher Rank: 23
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 1 87.0 4.36 4.08 15.3% 5.6% 9.8% 47.3% 36.4% 29.8%
2016 12 100.4 4.92 6.05 17.9% 10.0% 8.9% 40.3% 43.3% 33.1%
2015 25 101.3 4.03 4.99 20.9% 7.4% 9.3% 40.0% 39.1% 27.1%

After struggling as a starter, the Tigers moved Sanchez to the bullpen. However, he will draw another start tonight as Detroit had to place Jordan Zimmermann on the DL. In 12 starts this season, he has a 4.92 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.9% and a walk rate of 10%. He has always been a fly-ball pitcher, but he is allowing more hard contact this season, which has led to a high home run rate as well. He is an easy fade tonight against Carlos Carrasco and the Indians.

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,200 Salary: $11,500
FPPG: 37.3 FPPG: 21.3
Pitcher Rating: 92.5 Pitcher Rank: 2
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HH%
L30 Days 5 106.6 2.96 2.23 29.3% 6.4% 13.5% 54.5% 25.0% 27.0%
2016 10 92.4 3.34 2.56 25.4% 6.1% 12.2% 52.7% 27.5% 34.3%
2015 30 92.6 2.74 3.63 29.6% 5.9% 14.0% 51.2% 29.8% 27.5%

The Tigers aren’t usually an offense that we like to target pitchers against, but we can make the exception for right-handed pitchers with a high strikeout rate. Carrasco certainly fits the bill, as he has a 3.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.4% on the season. Over the course of the last two years, he has held right-handed hitters to a .286 wOBA. Carrasco grades out as the second best pitcher in the slate and is worth a look in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers’ offense could really end up struggling tonight against Carlos Carrasco. They only have two or three left-handed hitters that they can throw at him and they are large underdogs on the road. Miguel Cabrera is always worth a look as a one-off in a GPP, but I will be avoiding the rest of the Tigers’ hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.336 0.151 0.316 2B $3,400 2B $4,300
2 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.307 0.081 0.372 OF $2,700 OF $3,700
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.412 0.221 0.345 1B $3,300 1B $3,900
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.304 0.153 0.351 C $3,100 1B $3,600
5 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.317 0.170 0.398 3B $3,000 3B $3,200
6 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.332 0.193 0.223 OF $2,600 OF $3,000
7 Steven Moya LEFT 0.359 0.273 0.500 OF $2,700 OF $2,300
8 James McCann RIGHT 0.249 0.075 0.284 C $2,200 C $2,100
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.289 0.059 0.343 SS $2,400 SS $2,600
Team Averages — 0.323 0.153 0.348 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Stackability – NONE

Cleveland

The Indians have quietly been a top ten offensive ball club this season. They are ranked ninth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and they come into tonight’s game with the sixth highest team total on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against Anibal Sanchez, who is a fly-ball pitcher that has allowed 45 home runs over the last two seasons. During that stretch, he has given up a .374 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.349 0.229 0.440 1B $3,700 1B $4,800
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.375 0.179 0.388 2B $3,000 2B $5,100
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.346 0.156 0.257 SS $3,200 SS $4,700
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.297 0.180 0.338 1B $3,100 1B $3,600
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.314 0.137 0.363 3B $2,800 3B/OF $4,100
6 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.314 0.147 0.446 OF $2,800 OF $4,100
7 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.259 0.172 0.212 C $2,200 C $3,400
8 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.395 0.244 0.401 OF $3,700 OF $3,800
9 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.327 0.169 0.392 OF $2,800 OF $5,000
Team Averages — 0.331 0.179 0.360 — — — —

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – GPP

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious