MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 15th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-08-15 19:52:01

Jump to Page 1 2 3

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Chicago White Sox								Detroit
			Carlos Rodon							Jordan Zimmermann
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CWS-101							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.248	0.318	31.0%	1.13	22.7%	50.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.308	0.313	32.3%	1.40	21.2%	36.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.272	0.306	23.4%	0.96	19.0%	38.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.335	0.323	36.4%	1.63	20.8%	30.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Carlos Rodon
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,600	Salary:			$9,100	Salary:		$17,600
	Salary Rank:			4 of 28	Salary Rank:			5 of 28	Salary Rank:		5 of 28
	2017	12	4.21	4.15	25.6%	10.4%	44.1%	32.1%	12.8%	93.1	10.3%
	2018	11	4.69	2.61	19.9%	9.6%	40.7%	25.0%	19.0%	93.2	9.4%
	L14	2	5.60	0.00	16.7%	13.0%	37.1%	19.4%	33.3%	92.0	10.3%

We have four games on the early schedule, which isn’t packed with the best pitching options. Despite owning a 4.69 SIERA and a below-average strikeout rate, Rodon is one of the most appealing plays on the board. We know that he’s talented, it’s just a matter of staying healthy and becoming more consistent. He draws a favorable matchup against the Tigers, whose projected lineup has five batters with a strikeout rate of at least 20% against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Rodon isn’t a safe play by any means, but he’s one of the best the early slate has to offer.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jordan Zimmermann
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,700	Salary:			$8,000	Salary:		$15,500
	Salary Rank:			8 of 28	Salary Rank:			10 of 28	Salary Rank:		10 of 28
	2017	29	5.22	6.08	14.5%	6.2%	33.2%	39.5%	13.4%	92.2	8.1%
	2018	16	4.06	3.98	21.0%	4.6%	33.8%	34.4%	19.1%	91.2	9.5%
	L14	2	5.13	1.42	12.7%	5.5%	40.0%	33.3%	11.1%	90.7	7.0%

Zimmermann was a popular target of mine earlier in the season, but he seems to be slipping back into his 2017 form. In his last two starts, he has a 5.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13%. While I would call the White Sox a get-right matchup, they do have some decent hitters in their lineup. Overall, their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .317 with an ISO of .176 against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Zimmermann is overpriced given his current form.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox matchup against Jordan Zimmermann doesn’t look great on paper, but his form has dropped off considerably over the last few weeks. If we look back to last season, Zimmermann was one of our favorite pitchers to target hitters against. Nick Delmonico and Yolmer Sanchez provide good value at the top of the batting order, while Jose Abreu, Daniel Palka, and Avisail Garcia boast an ISO of at least .198 against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Nick Delmonico	LEFT	0.310	0.131	28.8%	9.2%	20.9%	43.2%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,100	IF/OF	$6,000
2	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.304	0.169	27.4%	6.5%	19.2%	46.8%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,400	2B	$6,600
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.373	0.198	35.9%	6.4%	18.0%	43.9%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,200
4	Daniel Palka	LEFT	0.332	0.277	39.3%	4.9%	35.4%	40.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,200
5	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.334	0.211	38.2%	2.8%	26.0%	47.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,300
6	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.344	0.146	26.8%	9.2%	17.8%	38.1%	C	$2,300	C	$3,100	C	$5,900
7	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.271	0.153	26.9%	5.6%	25.6%	48.6%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,300
8	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.338	0.206	38.1%	10.3%	34.7%	31.1%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,600
9	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.249	0.096	26.9%	4.8%	28.1%	38.5%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,100	CF	$5,500
	Team Averages		0.317	0.176	32.0%	6.6%	25.1%	41.9%

Elite Plays – Nick Delmonico, Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Yolmer Sanchez, Daniel Palka, Avisail Garcia

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

Even though a case can be made for these two pitchers, we can also make a case for these two offenses. They have combined to score 14 and ten runs in the first two games of this series. Carlos Rodon hasn’t been great this season, but he’s managed to hold both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 32% hard contact rate. Each of the first five hitters in the Tigers’ projected lineup owns a .340+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season — Jeimer Candelario, Jose Iglesias, Nick Castellanos, Victor Martinez, and Niko Goodrum.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.352	0.213	41.6%	8.4%	26.1%	45.5%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,700
2	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.348	0.208	27.0%	4.7%	5.8%	34.2%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,600
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.419	0.236	51.2%	7.5%	20.0%	37.2%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,300
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.340	0.111	26.4%	5.6%	9.3%	39.6%	C	$2,300	1B	$2,700	1B	$5,600
5	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.344	0.120	38.5%	8.8%	19.8%	53.8%	2B	$2,500	2B/OF	$3,400	1B	$6,800
6	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.238	0.059	34.8%	2.9%	31.4%	34.8%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,800
7	Ronny Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.208	0.069	21.7%	0.0%	23.3%	57.1%	2B	$2,200	2B/3B	$2,700	2B	$5,500
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.361	0.134	35.0%	6.8%	25.0%	42.4%	C	$2,400	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
9	Victor Reyes	RIGHT	0.303	0.095	31.3%	0.0%	23.8%	40.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,400
	Team Averages		0.324	0.138	34.2%	5.0%	20.5%	42.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Jose Iglesias, Nick Castellanos, Niko Goodrum

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh								Minnesota
			Chris Archer							Jose Berrios
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIN-120							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.359	0.356	39.6%	1.48	21.1%	44.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.290	0.313	36.1%	1.14	25.7%	37.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.316	0.330	40.5%	0.86	26.3%	45.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.281	0.295	30.9%	1.01	24.1%	44.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Chris Archer
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,600	Salary:			$8,600	Salary:		$17,100
	Salary Rank:			9 of 28	Salary Rank:			7 of 28	Salary Rank:		6 of 28
	2017	34	3.44	4.07	29.2%	7.0%	42.0%	39.4%	13.2%	95.5	13.4%
	2018	19	3.89	4.36	24.1%	8.0%	44.9%	40.1%	16.6%	94.6	13.3%
	L14	2	5.17	4.82	19.2%	12.8%	46.7%	38.7%	19.4%	94.7	10.9%

Archer hasn’t been great in his first two starts with the Pirates, but one of them came in Coors Field, so he obviously deserves a pass for that one. In 19 starts overall, he owns a 3.89 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a walk rate of 8%. This may be a hot take, but given the fact that he is facing an American League offense on the road, I actually prefer Carlos Rodon at a similar price point. The Twins aren’t thought of as a great offense, but their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .331 with a hard contact rate of 39% against right-handed pitching this season. They also have six lefties in their projected lineup, which has been Archer’s weakness over the last few seasons.

Quick Breakdown: Archer is one of the top three pitching options in the early slate, but I slightly prefer Rodon.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jose Berrios
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,900	Salary:			$10,000	Salary:		$19,600
	Salary Rank:			3 of 28	Salary Rank:			3 of 28	Salary Rank:		3 of 28
	2017	25	4.29	3.89	22.6%	7.8%	39.0%	27.9%	20.4%	93.5	9.4%
	2018	24	3.73	3.66	24.9%	6.8%	41.0%	33.5%	19.6%	93.1	11.1%
	L14	2	5.56	4.91	21.6%	17.7%	44.8%	35.5%	9.7%	92.9	10.8%

Berrios is the top pitching option of the early slate, which is a bit scary since he is facing a high-contact Pirates’ offense. Their projected lineup for today’s game has a .340 xwOBA and a strikeout rate of only 17% against right-handed pitching. In a bigger slate, Berrios would be tournament flier at best. However, we have to work with the options that we are given. The good news for Berrios is that he is pitching at home where he boasts a 3.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29%. If you pull up his pitching profile on DraftKings, you’ll see that Berrios has averaged 24 fantasy points per start at home and only 14 fantasy points per start on the road.

Quick Breakdown: I’m not in love with the matchup, but Berrios is the top pitching option of the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

One way to create leverage on the field in the early slate is to fade Jose Berrios and target a few Pirates’ hitters. As mentioned above, this is far from a great spot for Berrios, so if he does struggle at extremely high ownership, you would put yourself in a good position in tournaments. I only recommend this strategy in low buy-in, large-field GPPs. For cash games and higher dollar tournaments, the Pirates are an easy offense to fade. Berrios has been terrific at home and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.363	0.207	37.3%	3.9%	11.9%	34.7%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,700
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.339	0.193	34.3%	4.9%	18.3%	46.3%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,800	CF	$8,900
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.373	0.266	36.7%	12.2%	22.6%	33.3%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,100
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.338	0.137	30.3%	10.8%	16.8%	50.9%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,200
5	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.384	0.220	36.0%	12.8%	20.6%	38.5%	C	$2,600	C	$4,000	C	$7,200
6	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.334	0.154	27.2%	8.6%	12.6%	51.5%	OF	$2,600	2B/OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,300
7	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.269	0.091	27.8%	3.9%	17.1%	37.2%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,900
8	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.353	0.134	32.9%	8.3%	15.9%	42.9%	3B	$2,200	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,500
9	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.303	0.094	37.5%	4.6%	17.2%	39.6%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,300
	Team Averages		0.340	0.166	33.3%	7.8%	17.0%	41.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota

The Twins’ matchup against Chris Archer sounds difficult, but it’s not as bad if we look strictly at the numbers. Archer owns an ERA well over four and he has allowed a .356 xwOBA to lefties and a .330 xwOBA to righties, including a 39%+ hard contact rate to both. The Twins are favored and they are playing at home in a somewhat hitter-friendly ballpark. The issue for me is how expensive the Twins’ hitters are. I was hoping for a price break given their matchup. Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, and Max Kepler are all viable, but they are secondary plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.395	0.093	43.7%	11.4%	12.5%	49.8%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,300
2	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.342	0.232	38.9%	6.8%	17.4%	32.4%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,700	LF	$9,100
3	Jorge Polanco	SWITCH	0.308	0.151	26.2%	13.9%	20.8%	42.2%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,200
4	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.306	0.223	50.6%	9.2%	39.9%	42.2%	3B	$2,600	1B/3B	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,400
5	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.327	0.181	37.8%	12.0%	13.9%	39.5%	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,400
6	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.290	0.090	31.5%	7.5%	18.4%	45.4%	2B	$2,300	2B/3B	$3,200	2B	$6,500
7	Jake Cave	LEFT	0.369	0.164	33.3%	3.4%	24.8%	45.8%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,500
8	Mitch Garver	RIGHT	0.327	0.175	43.9%	8.7%	24.3%	43.4%	C	$2,100	C	$3,500	C	$6,300
9	Ehire Adrianza	SWITCH	0.312	0.139	40.8%	7.4%	24.0%	36.0%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,900
	Team Averages		0.331	0.161	38.5%	8.9%	21.8%	41.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								Chicago Cubs
			Junior Guerra							Kyle Hendricks
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-138							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.323	0.343	40.8%	1.41	22.9%	39.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.302	0.314	31.5%	1.43	22.7%	45.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.306	0.326	40.7%	0.93	21.5%	42.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.319	0.335	31.8%	1.19	17.8%	48.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Junior Guerra
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,500	Salary:			$7,100	Salary:		$13,500
	Salary Rank:			10 of 28	Salary Rank:			14 of 28	Salary Rank:		17 of 28
	2017	14	5.23	5.12	21.3%	13.7%	33.5%	33.5%	18.5%	91.9	10.9%
	2018	22	4.37	3.40	22.2%	9.5%	40.8%	40.8%	16.5%	93.2	10.0%
	L14	2	4.81	3.21	16.1%	8.9%	51.2%	26.2%	16.7%	93.8	14.2%

Guerra is having a decent season as a whole. In 22 starts, he owns a 4.37 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, so he’ll be happy to see that the wind in Wrigley today isn’t really helping or hurting. It’s blowing straight across the field. The biggest issue for Guerra is a matchup against the Cubs, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .333 with a .173 ISO and a 10% walk rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Guerra has struggled on the road and draws a difficult matchup. He’s an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Kyle Hendricks
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,000	Salary:			$7,500	Salary:		$14,500
	Salary Rank:			6 of 28	Salary Rank:			12 of 28	Salary Rank:		13 of 28
	2017	24	4.08	3.03	21.6%	7.0%	50.1%	30.4%	22.5%	85.8	8.3%
	2018	24	4.04	4.02	20.0%	5.9%	46.9%	31.7%	21.9%	86.8	9.0%
	L14	2	2.96	4.63	24.5%	0.0%	51.6%	38.2%	17.7%	87.0	11.2%

Hendricks has had a very mediocre season for the Cubs. In his 24 starts, he has a 4.04 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. He still has a decent ground ball rate and a high soft contact rate, but his upside is somewhat capped. Luckily, at a price point of only $7,500, he doesn’t need to have tremendous upside to pay off his salary. His matchup against the Brewers is of the boom or bust nature. The Brewers’ projected lineup has an average ISO of .195 against right-handed pitching, but also a strikeout rate of 25%.

Quick Breakdown: Hendricks is right there with Rodon and Archer as the top SP2 of the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers draw a mediocre matchup against Kyle Hendricks and have to face him in a somewhat pitcher-friendly ballpark. They have a low implied run total and are playing on the road. On the season, Hendricks has allowed a .314 xwOBA to lefties and a .335 xwOBA to righties. Milwaukee hasn’t had a lot of success against him in the past, as their current roster has a .282 wOBA in 150 plate appearances. While this offense has some upside and while they will be low owned, there aren’t any batters that stand out as elite plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.384	0.208	46.2%	9.6%	24.2%	54.3%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,200	CF	$9,600
2	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.325	0.090	35.9%	12.0%	18.0%	61.5%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,500
3	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.371	0.236	45.5%	8.9%	15.4%	30.0%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,400	3B	$8,000
4	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.395	0.310	46.2%	9.9%	27.0%	31.9%	1B	$3,800	1B	$5,000	1B	$9,900
5	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.398	0.282	42.0%	13.2%	16.4%	34.3%	2B	$3,500	2B/3B	$4,300	3B	$8,500
6	Eric Thames	LEFT	0.366	0.303	51.7%	9.7%	32.4%	30.5%	OF	$2,900	1B/OF	$4,600	1B	$9,400
7	Manny Pina	RIGHT	0.311	0.142	33.3%	4.9%	20.0%	39.3%	C	$2,300	C	$3,200	C	$6,500
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.233	0.073	26.3%	4.0%	27.9%	56.6%	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,900	SS	$5,500
9	Junior Guerra	RIGHT	0.092	0.111	16.7%	0.0%	40.0%	40.0%	P	$7,500	P	$7,100	P	$13,500
	Team Averages		0.319	0.195	38.2%	8.0%	24.6%	42.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Jesus Aguilar, Travis Shaw

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are a sneaky stack here in the early slate. Most will look to the game in Oakland, even though that’s one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks on the schedule. Junior Guerra hasn’t been great on the road this season and has allowed a 40%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. The Cubs have no shortage of power against right-handed pitching, as each of the first six batters owns a .340+ xwOBA this season and four of them have an ISO over .200 — Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, David Bote (who owns the best walk-off home run of the season), and Kyle Schwarber.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.407	0.209	35.7%	11.6%	9.4%	37.1%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,200
2	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.343	0.279	38.1%	3.2%	26.6%	45.5%	2B	$4,000	2B/SS	$5,000	2B	$9,700
3	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.373	0.186	36.5%	14.0%	12.8%	44.3%	2B	$3,200	2B/OF	$4,900	IF/OF	$8,700
4	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.346	0.136	31.2%	9.3%	11.2%	44.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,500
5	David Bote	RIGHT	0.443	0.222	40.0%	13.5%	19.2%	60.0%	3B	$2,900	2B/3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
6	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.385	0.263	42.8%	15.3%	25.4%	39.5%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,200
7	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.306	0.152	31.0%	7.2%	20.9%	50.0%	C	$2,900	C	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,600
8	Kyle Hendricks	RIGHT	0.109	0.028	11.1%	2.6%	50.0%	64.7%	P	$8,000	P	$7,500	P	$14,500
9	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.289	0.086	30.5%	9.0%	22.7%	43.3%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,400
	Team Averages		0.333	0.173	33.0%	9.5%	22.0%	47.7%

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo, David Bote

Secondary Plays – Javier Baez, Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Seattle at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Seattle								Oakland
			Mike Leake							Brett Anderson
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			OAK-130							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.311	0.399	37.5%	0.67	11.2%	48.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.386	0.429	37.8%	0.90	6.5%	54.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.340	0.339	33.6%	1.47	17.7%	51.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.351	0.369	35.9%	1.43	14.0%	50.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Mike Leake
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,900	Salary:			$6,000	Salary:		$11,900
	Salary Rank:			17 of 28	Salary Rank:			23 of 28	Salary Rank:		23 of 28
	2017	31	4.15	3.92	16.6%	4.7%	53.7%	32.7%	15.8%	90.1	8.4%
	2018	24	4.43	4.11	14.6%	4.9%	50.0%	35.5%	16.7%	88.9	7.5%
	L14	3	3.60	3.86	16.7%	1.3%	54.8%	23.8%	17.5%	88.4	6.5%

This will be the game that everyone in the early slate looks to for hitters and understandably so. Even though the game is being played in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, Mike Leake and Brett Anderson aren’t exactly intimidating opponents on the mound. To Leake’s credit, he has slowly been rounding into form. Over his last three starts, he has a 3.60 SIERA with a walk rate of 1% and a ground ball rate of 55%. The problem is his matchup against the A’s, who can negate his biggest strength (his high ground ball rate). The A’s have one of the highest fly-ball rates of any team this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Leake in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Brett Anderson
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,400	Salary:			$4,500	Salary:		$9,100
	Salary Rank:			19 of 28	Salary Rank:			28 of 28	Salary Rank:		28 of 28
	2017	13	4.84	6.34	15.1%	8.4%	49.2%	36.5%	21.9%	90.5	8.8%
	2018	10	4.69	4.53	12.3%	5.4%	51.6%	36.4%	18.2%	90.4	6.6%
	L14	2	4.05	1.50	14.3%	2.4%	50.0%	37.1%	17.1%	90.8	5.8%

Anderson is one of the most hittable starters in baseball right now. Even though he has good control and an ability to induce ground balls, there is nothing sexy about a 4.69 SIERA and a 12% strikeout rate. He has struggled against both left and right-handed hitters and the Mariners have a very capable offense, especially now that Robinson Cano is back in the mix. There is more risk than upside with Anderson, as he basically needs to throw six shutout innings in order to pay off his salary because we know the strikeouts aren’t going to be there.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Anderson in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Even though the Mariners are road underdogs playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, they are my favorite offense to target in the early slate. Brett Anderson has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball and has allowed a .429 xwOBA to lefties and a .369 xwOBA to righties this season. Meanwhile, the Mariners’ offense is loaded with high-contact hitters, many of whom have great numbers against left-handed pitching. Nelson Cruz sticks out like a sore thumb here, as he boasts a .433 xwOBA and a .354 ISO against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.346	0.129	37.0%	10.1%	23.0%	47.8%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,500	RF	$9,100
2	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.436	0.176	43.5%	14.3%	9.5%	47.8%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,300
3	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.303	0.134	21.7%	5.0%	12.1%	43.2%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,400	SS	$8,000
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.433	0.354	46.7%	13.8%	19.0%	41.3%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,800	RF	$9,000
5	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.324	0.160	27.2%	4.3%	22.8%	38.1%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
6	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.350	0.193	32.1%	6.0%	21.6%	45.2%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,700
7	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.291	0.217	42.6%	5.7%	40.9%	34.0%	C	$2,500	C	$3,600	C	$7,700
8	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.301	0.060	29.3%	9.2%	14.6%	50.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,100	CF	$5,500
9	Guillermo Heredia	SWITCH	0.304	0.082	29.3%	7.3%	17.3%	40.5%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,600	CF	$4,500
	Team Averages		0.343	0.167	34.4%	8.4%	20.1%	43.1%

Elite Plays – Mitch Haniger, Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz, Mike Zunino (DK)

Secondary Plays – Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Ryon Healy

Stackability – GREEN

Oakland

The A’s are a close second behind the Mariners on my list of offenses to target in the early slate. Even though Mike Leake has been in better form recently, I love targeting the A’s against ground ball pitchers. Their team is specifically built to hit fly balls, so they should be able to negate his biggest strength. On the season, Leake has allowed a .399 xwOBA to lefties and a .339 xwOBA to righties. The random BvP gem of the day is Jonathan Lucroy, who is 20-for-44 with five extra-base hits against Leake in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Nick Martini	LEFT	0.329	0.125	35.7%	13.0%	21.7%	45.2%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,300
2	Matt Chapman	RIGHT	0.379	0.241	44.5%	10.4%	22.9%	36.3%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,500	3B	$9,200
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.346	0.224	37.7%	11.9%	20.7%	33.8%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,500
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.423	0.323	47.4%	7.0%	24.3%	35.0%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,100	LF	$9,600
5	Matt Olson	LEFT	0.391	0.252	48.8%	11.0%	25.5%	32.5%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,200
6	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.361	0.199	44.4%	5.1%	19.8%	43.5%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,700
7	Mark Canha	RIGHT	0.338	0.108	36.0%	8.5%	22.6%	39.6%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,700
8	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.309	0.090	28.6%	7.1%	16.8%	42.8%	SS	$3,100	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,200
9	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.313	0.074	38.5%	6.0%	13.6%	43.0%	C	$2,200	C	$3,000	C	$5,600
	Team Averages		0.354	0.182	40.2%	8.9%	20.9%	39.1%

Elite Plays – Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Matt Olson

Secondary Plays – Nick Martini, Matt Chapman, Stephen Piscotty, Jonathan Lucroy (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Boston at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Boston								Philadelphia
			Nathan Eovaldi							Vince Velasquez
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-100							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.321	0.339	35.6%	1.32	18.7%	46.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.334	0.318	35.0%	1.54	24.4%	38.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.254	0.282	32.8%	1.55	23.2%	44.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.269	0.280	31.1%	0.46	29.0%	39.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Nathan Eovaldi
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,400	Salary:			$9,300	Salary:		$18,100
	Salary Rank:			3 of 20	Salary Rank:			3 of 20	Salary Rank:		3 of 20

	2018	13	3.81	3.74	21.1%	3.7%	45.0%	34.1%	19.6%	97.0	10.2%
	L14	2	5.85	3.38	8.7%	6.5%	36.8%	35.9%	15.4%	97.2	6.7%

Eovaldi hasn’t been great in his last two starts and for whatever reason, his strikeouts have gone out the window. He’s still had a nice season as a whole though, posting a 3.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. Perhaps a matchup against the strikeout-prone Phillies can get him going again. Their projected lineup for tonight’s game has a 21% k-rate against right-handed pitching. While the play makes sense on paper, pitchers in this ballpark always scare me. I’d rather play Kevin Gausman at a similar price point.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Eovaldi in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Vince Velasquez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,300	Salary:			$6,900	Salary:		$13,900
	Salary Rank:			6 of 20	Salary Rank:			11 of 20	Salary Rank:		10 of 20
	2017	15	4.73	5.13	21.6%	10.8%	42.5%	38.1%	15.2%	93.9	9.1%
	2018	22	3.83	3.98	26.7%	9.2%	38.9%	33.1%	16.4%	93.9	11.6%
	L14	2	4.12	3.48	22.0%	7.3%	40.7%	46.4%	14.3%	93.0	12.8%

Velasquez has pitched well in his 22 starts this season. He owns a 3.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. He’s managed to pitch well in this ballpark, despite a high fly-ball rate. The issue tonight is a matchup against the Red Sox, whose projected lineup has a .348 xwOBA and a .188 ISO against right-handed pitching. I know the Nick Pivetta play worked out last night, but you are playing with fire trying to target pitchers against Boston.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Velasquez in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark tonight, but they lose the use of the DH and they draw a fairly difficult matchup against Vince Velasquez. In addition to having a high strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA. Even though this doesn’t look like a great spot on paper, I will take my chances with the Red Sox against a fly-ball pitcher in a home run-friendly ballpark. Even without Mookie Betts in the lineup, there are still some great tournament plays here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.410	0.209	30.8%	13.4%	13.6%	37.3%	OF	$4,100	OF	$5,600	LF	$10,200
2	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.331	0.104	29.0%	8.8%	14.9%	51.5%	2B	$2,400	2B/SS	$3,500	2B	$6,600
3	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.413	0.231	36.0%	10.4%	20.4%	41.6%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,100
4	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.466	0.374	46.5%	10.2%	22.0%	44.5%	OF	$5,100	OF	$5,800	RF	$10,100
5	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.385	0.256	38.5%	7.3%	17.2%	47.7%	SS	$3,600	SS	$5,000	SS	$10,000
6	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.381	0.199	39.9%	10.3%	23.1%	39.6%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,000
7	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.330	0.207	36.8%	7.8%	23.9%	44.4%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,000	3B	$7,200
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.267	0.112	28.6%	3.7%	25.8%	43.0%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900	C	$5,800
9	Nathan Eovaldi	RIGHT	0.145	0.000	50.0%	0.0%	60.0%	50.0%	P	$8,400	P	$9,300	P	$18,100
	Team Averages		0.348	0.188	37.3%	8.0%	24.5%	44.4%

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi (GPP), Mitch Moreland (GPP), J.D. Martinez (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi (Cash), Mitch Moreland (Cash), J.D. Martinez (Cash), Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies draw a mediocre matchup against Nathan Eovaldi. He has been tough on right-handed hitters this season, but has allowed a .339 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to lefties. Nick Williams, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Carlos Santana all bat from the left side and all boast a .365+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching. While they don’t stand out as a full stack in tournaments, they are all viable one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.325	0.125	23.6%	14.8%	22.0%	42.5%	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,300
2	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.381	0.224	35.3%	8.3%	22.8%	42.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,200
3	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.371	0.246	45.1%	7.8%	21.6%	39.9%	SS	$3,200	2B/SS	$4,400	SS	$8,400
4	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.383	0.269	38.0%	11.8%	25.2%	29.0%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,000
5	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.367	0.176	34.5%	19.6%	15.8%	39.7%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,600
6	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.324	0.213	25.9%	4.9%	14.3%	52.2%	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,200
7	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.301	0.193	26.2%	7.4%	20.4%	39.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,500
8	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.361	0.159	42.6%	8.0%	20.0%	54.9%	C	$2,900	C	$3,500	C	$6,500
9	Vince Velasquez	RIGHT	0.193	0.038	19.1%	0.0%	27.6%	77.8%	P	$7,300	P	$6,900	P	$13,900
	Team Averages		0.334	0.183	32.3%	9.2%	21.1%	46.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays -Nick Williams, Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 15th

Jump to Page 1 2 3

Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Pittsburgh at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Seattle at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Boston at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author