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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 16th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-08-17 01:37:00

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

LA Angels at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

LA Angels Washington
laangelsmlb Ricky Nolasco washingtonmlb Tanner Roark
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-120 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.319 0.339 33.0% 7.7% 14.6% 39.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.308 0.332 29.8% 11.3% 18.0% 41.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.357 0.338 37.6% 4.3% 21.4% 44.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.282 0.297 22.0% 6.4% 21.8% 54.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ricky Nolasco
ricky-nolasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.39 4.42 17.6% 5.4% 43.1% 34.1% 14.4%
2017 24 4.56 5.24 18.8% 6.7% 41.6% 37.2% 14.7%
L30 5 4.86 7.01 15.1% 6.7% 43.5% 35.5% 16.1%

We have six early games on the schedule today, as well as nine late games. Nolasco will be on the mound for the Angels, as they take on the Nationals in the nation’s capital. Nolasco isn’t a very appealing fantasy option with a 4.56 SIERA and a 19% strikeout rate on the season. He is listed as an underdog in a game that features a total of 9.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Nolasco can be avoided against the Nationals, who are a top three offense against right-handed pitching.

Tanner Roark
tanner-roark-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $7,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.32 2.83 20.1% 8.5% 48.7% 24.3% 23.1%
2017 22 4.61 4.74 19.7% 9.1% 47.3% 27.9% 15.5%
L30 5 4.48 2.97 24.8% 12.4% 51.9% 21.0% 16.1%

Roark has been in decent form over the last month of play, but he’s had a down season overall. In 22 starts, he owns a 4.61 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 20%. He might be favored today against the Angels, but they are a high-contact offense that is difficult to strikeout. Roark is cheap enough that you can look at him as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites, but he’s not a core play in the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Roark doesn’t have enough strikeout upside in this matchup to make him a core target.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels are small underdogs here, but they have a fairly high implied total for a game being played in this ballpark. Vegas seems to really like the Angels’ chances in this series, as last night’s line looked a bit strange as well. From a fantasy perspective, there is really only one hitter that stands out and that’s obviously Mike Trout. He currently owns a .441 xwOBA and a .378 ISO against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.315 0.317 0.154 28.1% 14.9% 19.8% 58.1% OF $2,300 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.478 0.441 0.378 42.0% 17.3% 19.2% 34.6% OF $4,800 OF $5,700 N/A N/A
3 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.280 0.313 0.161 35.7% 5.2% 15.7% 43.8% 1B $2,900 1B $3,200 N/A N/A
4 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.302 0.311 0.121 31.8% 9.4% 21.9% 43.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
5 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.352 0.317 0.159 32.3% 6.1% 9.6% 49.0% SS $3,400 SS $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Luis Valbuena LEFT 0.279 0.289 0.188 35.1% 8.9% 26.7% 38.0% 3B $2,200 1B/3B $2,700 N/A N/A
7 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.290 0.284 0.172 27.5% 2.7% 23.4% 47.3% C $2,400 C $2,700 N/A N/A
8 Kaleb Cowart SWITCH 0.388 0.363 0.225 40.6% 6.7% 20.0% 38.7% 2B $2,700 2B $2,000 N/A N/A
9 Ricky Nolasco RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% P $6,600 P $5,700 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Cameron Maybin

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The Nationals draw an exploitable matchup against Ricky Nolasco, who has allowed a .338+ xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. The loss of Bryce Harper hurts, but this is still a talented offense. Four of their projected starters have a .360+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.320 0.315 0.242 34.4% 8.3% 22.7% 39.1% OF $3,400 OF $4,500 N/A N/A
2 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.267 0.278 0.075 20.5% 8.3% 21.0% 54.1% SS $3,200 2B/SS $3,600 N/A N/A
3 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.397 0.372 0.253 34.7% 8.1% 8.6% 31.9% 2B $3,300 2B $5,200 N/A N/A
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.385 0.365 0.234 34.3% 13.8% 14.6% 35.4% 3B $3,300 3B $5,100 N/A N/A
5 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.376 0.368 0.249 39.8% 6.7% 21.5% 47.9% 1B $3,400 1B $5,100 N/A N/A
6 Adam Lind LEFT 0.368 0.383 0.220 40.6% 7.6% 15.1% 43.4% OF $2,300 1B/OF $3,600 N/A N/A
7 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.332 0.287 0.226 34.4% 6.2% 33.2% 40.7% OF $2,900 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
8 Jose Lobaton SWITCH 0.247 0.330 0.171 30.0% 9.8% 25.0% 46.7% C $2,000 C $2,500 N/A N/A
9 Tanner Roark RIGHT 0.138 0.146 0.031 13.8% 2.5% 25.0% 76.2% P $7,900 P $7,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy, Adam Lind

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Wilmer Difo, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW

San Francisco at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

San Francisco Miami
sanfranciscomlb Matt Cain miamimlb Jose Urena
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA-165 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.374 0.369 30.0% 10.0% 15.3% 41.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.330 0.355 33.1% 8.0% 11.4% 37.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.353 0.336 32.2% 7.6% 14.6% 39.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.311 0.320 32.2% 8.2% 20.5% 48.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Cain
matt-cain-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $5,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 17 4.67 5.64 18.1% 8.1% 37.3% 31.4% 21.6%
2017 20 5.58 5.22 12.4% 9.1% 42.8% 31.2% 16.2%
L30 3 5.80 3.50 10.0% 8.8% 41.3% 24.6% 15.4%

Cain doesn’t fit the mold of the type of pitcher we are looking for in DFS. He has too low of a floor for cash games and too low of a ceiling for tournaments. On the season, he owns a subpar 5.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 12%. He is an easy fade today against the Marlins, who are listed as sizable favorites despite the fact that they have a bad pitcher of their own taking the mound.

Quick Breakdown: Cain hasn’t been relevant in DFS for many years.

Jose Urena
jose-urena-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $7,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 12 4.66 6.13 15.6% 7.8% 47.7% 32.5% 21.4%
2017 19 5.09 3.76 16.2% 8.3% 38.9% 32.9% 19.3%
L30 6 5.07 4.32 17.1% 8.6% 37.1% 36.4% 17.2%

Urena may be a large favorite at home today, but he offers little to no fantasy appeal in this early slate. In 19 starts this season, he has a 5.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. While the Giants might be ranked dead last in team wOBA against right-handed pitching, they also have the fourth lowest strikeout rate. Given his limited upside, Urena is an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: We have a low strikeout pitcher that is facing a high-contact offense. We can find better options.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants are the worst offense in baseball and they are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark today. That doesn’t exactly sound like a great spot to target their hitters, but they do draw a decent matchup against Jose Urena. Since the start of last season, Urena has allowed a .355 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .320 xwOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.337 0.332 0.178 25.9% 6.4% 12.2% 39.7% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
2 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.281 0.270 0.105 28.0% 4.9% 22.7% 61.4% OF $3,300 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
3 Jarrett Parker LEFT 0.274 0.263 0.159 24.0% 6.4% 40.4% 44.0% OF $2,400 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.343 0.363 0.119 30.0% 10.0% 11.0% 44.8% C $3,000 1B/C $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.263 0.295 0.127 32.4% 6.5% 21.8% 50.5% SS $2,500 SS $2,900 N/A N/A
6 Pablo Sandoval SWITCH 0.307 0.337 0.192 43.4% 6.5% 22.4% 44.7% 3B $2,100 3B $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Ryder Jones LEFT 0.220 0.232 0.103 23.3% 2.4% 22.0% 33.3% 1B $2,200 1B/3B $2,000 N/A N/A
8 Kelby Tomlinson RIGHT 0.277 0.244 0.082 25.0% 7.6% 25.8% 51.2% 2B $2,100 3B/SS $2,700 N/A N/A
9 Matt Cain RIGHT 0.257 0.201 0.067 22.2% 0.0% 47.1% 57.1% P $5,700 P $5,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Jarrett Parker, Buster Posey

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami

The Marlins draw one of the top matchups in the early slate, even if they are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. When it comes to Matt Cain, hitters from both sides of the plate are in play. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .369 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .336 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. The one through five hitters are viable here and a full Marlins’ stack isn’t a terrible idea in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.317 0.260 0.075 19.1% 5.0% 14.0% 56.3% 2B $3,300 2B $3,900 N/A N/A
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.413 0.401 0.352 39.5% 9.9% 25.7% 41.2% OF $5,000 OF $5,800 N/A N/A
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.347 0.361 0.150 38.5% 13.4% 19.3% 56.7% OF $3,300 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.390 0.369 0.272 42.9% 8.1% 22.3% 44.0% OF $3,600 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
5 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.330 0.332 0.152 31.4% 6.0% 17.2% 50.4% C $2,600 C $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.293 0.299 0.164 34.7% 6.6% 19.7% 34.7% 3B $3,100 3B $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Tomas Telis SWITCH 0.327 0.324 0.143 44.0% 3.3% 10.0% 48.0% 1B $2,300 1B $2,800 N/A N/A
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.293 0.301 0.029 16.1% 8.8% 9.6% 48.4% SS $2,300 SS $2,700 N/A N/A
9 Jose Urena RIGHT 0.084 0.130 0.040 15.8% 0.0% 36.7% 50.0% P $6,600 P $7,400 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, J.T. Realmuto

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Derek Dietrich

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Pittsburgh Milwaukee
pittsburghmlb Gerrit Cole milwaukeemlb Jimmy Nelson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIL-120 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.352 0.325 36.6% 6.3% 22.4% 40.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.326 0.323 37.6% 11.0% 22.9% 46.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.294 0.302 25.2% 6.5% 18.8% 50.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.331 0.294 27.9% 6.7% 20.1% 53.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Gerrit Cole
gerrit-cole-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $11,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 21 4.24 3.88 19.4% 7.1% 45.6% 30.1% 21.3%
2017 24 4.07 3.96 21.4% 5.8% 45.9% 30.7% 24.4%
L30 5 3.84 2.65 24.3% 6.4% 45.3% 19.0% 28.4%

Two of the most intriguing pitching options in the early slate are squaring off in Milwaukee. Cole has shown good form in his last five starts, posting a 3.84 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. He induces a lot of soft and medium contact, which allows him to limit the damage against him. A matchup against the Brewers suits his skill set, as he is much tougher on righties than he is on lefties.

Quick Breakdown: Cole is viable in tournaments, although I slightly prefer the man pitching opposite him.

Jimmy Nelson
jimmy-nelson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $9,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.92 4.62 17.4% 10.7% 49.4% 32.6% 21.3%
2017 24 3.39 3.72 26.9% 6.1% 50.5% 31.9% 22.4%
L30 6 3.15 4.95 29.1% 6.6% 52.6% 33.3% 27.1%

Nelson is having a career season for the Brewers, posting a 3.39 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. He was lit up in his last start against the Reds, but draws a decent bounce back spot today against the Pirates. Even though Pittsburgh has a low stirkeout rate as a whole, they are ranked 29th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. Not only that, but Nelson has a good track record against the Pirates in his career.

Quick Breakdown: Nelson is one of the top pitching options in the early slate. He is viable in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Miller Park, but they draw a difficult matchup against Jimmy Nelson. Throughout his career, he has pitched well at home and he has fared well against right-handed hitters. That doesn’t bode well for a right-handed heavy Pirates’ offense. Josh Bell is an intriguing one-off target in tournaments, but the rest of the Pirates can be avoided in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.307 0.318 0.092 27.3% 5.7% 18.0% 51.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.326 0.323 0.138 31.9% 4.8% 15.4% 35.2% 2B $2,800 2B/3B $3,500 N/A N/A
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.343 0.348 0.166 33.1% 10.9% 18.0% 42.4% OF $3,600 OF $4,800 N/A N/A
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.350 0.337 0.230 33.3% 10.8% 20.3% 49.4% 1B $3,300 1B $4,400 N/A N/A
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.321 0.345 0.099 30.6% 12.6% 20.4% 56.5% 3B $3,100 3B $3,300 N/A N/A
6 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.314 0.334 0.115 30.2% 8.2% 10.9% 47.8% OF $2,600 2B/OF $3,700 N/A N/A
7 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.314 0.309 0.152 27.5% 9.7% 15.2% 45.9% SS $2,200 SS $3,000 N/A N/A
8 Chris Stewart RIGHT 0.223 0.255 0.042 31.2% 5.1% 15.4% 37.3% C $2,000 C $2,000 N/A N/A
9 Gerrit Cole RIGHT 0.145 0.123 0.000 7.1% 2.4% 31.0% 73.7% P $9,400 P $11,800 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell

Stackability – RED

Milwaukee

Gerrit Cole is never a great matchup for any offense, but there are certain times when we can target hitters against him. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .325 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate. The Brewers are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark and they potentially have intriguing one-off targets in Jonathan Villar, Eric Thames, Travis Shaw, and Neil Walker.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.291 0.277 0.137 37.5% 7.4% 30.4% 55.2% SS $2,800 2B $4,200 N/A N/A
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.391 0.351 0.284 42.5% 15.5% 26.9% 38.0% 1B $3,400 1B/OF $4,500 N/A N/A
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.377 0.354 0.251 40.4% 8.5% 20.9% 44.7% OF $4,400 OF $5,300 N/A N/A
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.400 0.370 0.270 40.3% 10.8% 21.3% 45.1% 3B $3,600 3B $4,600 N/A N/A
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.357 0.330 0.187 36.2% 11.6% 30.3% 47.4% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
6 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.361 0.359 0.207 33.7% 8.6% 14.0% 36.1% 2B $3,100 2B $4,200 N/A N/A
7 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.324 0.287 0.179 31.2% 6.1% 20.7% 35.9% C $2,600 C $3,600 N/A N/A
8 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.297 0.285 0.190 35.8% 7.7% 38.7% 43.8% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
9 Jimmy Nelson RIGHT 0.091 0.088 0.000 11.1% 3.6% 64.3% 71.4% P $9,000 P $9,900 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Eric Thames, Travis Shaw, Neil Walker

Stackability – ORANGE

Kansas City at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Kansas City Oakland
kansascitymlb Danny Duffy oaklandmlb Paul Blackburn
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
KC -120 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.210 0.218 23.4% 4.4% 29.0% 48.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.244 0.336 25.6% 9.1% 8.1% 53.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 0.324 36.5% 6.3% 22.4% 35.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.333 0.298 25.6% 3.9% 11.7% 55.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Danny Duffy
danny-duffy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $9,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 3.53 3.51 25.7% 5.8% 36.4% 36.6% 17.8%
2017 19 4.38 3.68 20.3% 6.2% 38.2% 31.4% 16.7%
L30 6 4.00 3.49 21.4% 2.5% 33.1% 37.2% 17.4%

Duffy has a similar ERA to last season, but his fantasy production has taken a hit thanks to a decline in his strikeout rate. The velocity has been down a bit, which has led to a lower swinging strike rate and consequently, a low strikeout rate. There are reasons to like him today though, as he’s a fly-ball pitcher that is playing in one of the toughest ballparks to hit home runs in. Not only that, but on the season, the A’s are ranked 26th in team wOBA and 24th in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Duffy is viable in tournaments and potentially as an SP2 in cash games.

Paul Blackburn
paul-blackburn-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 8 5.13 3.02 9.9% 6.4% 54.8% 25.6% 17.9%
L30 6 5.00 3.89 10.7% 7.3% 56.1% 27.6% 17.9%

Blackburn may have a low ERA, but the regression is on its way. His SIERA is nearly two full runs higher than his ERA and his strikeout rate is below 10% on the season. Eventually, the batted balls are going to find holes in the defense. He is an easy fade today against the Royals, who have the seventh lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Any pitcher with a strikeout rate of 9.9% can automatically be crossed off our list of potential targets.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Even though Paul Blackburn has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball, he induces a lot of ground balls, which has led to a low hard contact rate. This is far from an ideal matchup, especially in this ballpark. With that said, Blackburn has allowed a .336 xwOBA to left-handed hitters if you want to give Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas a look in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.331 0.309 0.172 30.2% 3.7% 13.3% 35.0% 2B $3,900 2B $4,700 N/A N/A
2 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.344 0.320 0.127 31.3% 8.2% 18.3% 44.4% OF $4,000 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
3 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.385 0.376 0.201 33.3% 10.5% 15.9% 50.8% 1B $3,500 1B $4,000 N/A N/A
4 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.334 0.344 0.136 30.7% 6.4% 11.1% 51.2% OF $3,600 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.383 0.361 0.310 34.8% 6.1% 15.6% 30.0% 3B $4,100 3B $4,700 N/A N/A
6 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.330 0.322 0.170 30.6% 10.0% 27.4% 40.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
7 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.279 0.305 0.211 33.6% 9.5% 32.8% 31.3% OF $2,100 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.234 0.244 0.080 26.0% 1.7% 19.6% 42.3% SS $2,800 SS $3,400 N/A N/A
9 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.253 0.282 0.112 32.1% 7.7% 24.4% 41.4% OF $2,200 OF $2,400 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas

Stackability – ORANGE

Oakland

This is an interesting matchup for the A’s. While they strikeout at a high rate against lefties, they are facing a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact to right-handed hitters. The A’s lead the majors in fly-ball rate against southpaws, so we could see a lot of fly balls in this one (potential for home runs). This isn’t a great spot to stack the A’s, but Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, and Ryon Healy are all viable one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.324 0.299 0.146 23.1% 8.6% 17.1% 41.6% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
2 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.296 0.294 0.068 40.6% 15.4% 23.1% 34.4% SS $3,500 SS $3,600 N/A N/A
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.303 0.332 0.115 30.4% 12.0% 19.0% 40.6% 2B $2,900 2B $3,300 N/A N/A
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.310 0.397 0.193 54.6% 15.8% 29.7% 40.0% OF $4,100 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
5 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.434 0.360 0.304 34.3% 3.2% 20.0% 34.2% 1B $3,100 1B/3B $3,400 N/A N/A
6 Chad Pinder RIGHT 0.274 0.337 0.151 35.9% 6.8% 27.1% 28.2% OF $2,500 2B/SS $3,100 N/A N/A
7 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.257 0.335 0.184 34.8% 7.1% 38.1% 13.0% 3B $2,900 3B $3,000 N/A N/A
8 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.286 0.310 0.106 27.8% 11.1% 20.4% 55.6% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 N/A N/A
9 Dustin Garneau RIGHT 0.241 0.193 0.186 25.9% 0.0% 37.8% 30.8% C $2,000 C $2,900 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis, Ryon Healy

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore at Seattle – 3:40 PM ET

Baltimore Seattle
baltimoremlb Ubaldo Jimenez seattlemlb Marco Gonzales
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SEA-105 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.390 0.335 32.8% 11.4% 22.6% 42.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.373 0.366 25.0% 0.0% 20.0% 25.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.328 33.6% 10.2% 18.6% 50.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.450 0.414 35.1% 4.6% 11.4% 45.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ubaldo Jimenez
ubaldo-jimenez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $8,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 4.75 5.44 19.6% 11.3% 49.0% 30.9% 19.2%
2017 19 4.55 6.25 21.3% 10.0% 45.3% 36.2% 17.7%
L30 6 3.59 5.18 26.5% 6.8% 46.9% 41.8% 18.4%

Jimenez is coming off of two strong starts in a row. In his last six outings, he has a 3.59 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. Surprising, right? While the form is promising, I have little interest in him today against the Mariners, who are a decent offense against right-handed pitching. The fact that this game has a total of 10.0 runs is a red flag for both of the starting pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: Jimenez can be avoided in what is expected to be a shootout.

Marco Gonzales
marco-gonzales-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 3 5.00 8.49 13.0% 3.7% 42.2% 33.3% 22.2%
L30 2 5.19 6.48 13.2% 5.3% 38.7% 29.0% 22.6%

Gonzales hasn’t been great in his first three major league starts, posting a 5.00 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13%. When we have a small sample size to work with, I like to lean heavily on Vegas. They clearly don’t have a lot of faith in Gonzales, as this game is a pick ‘em with the total set at 10.0 runs. He is an easy fade against the Orioles, who have been swinging the bat well on this road trip.

Quick Breakdown: Let’s take a wait and see approach on Gonzales.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles draw a boom or bust matchup against Marco Gonzales, who is only making his fourth career major league start. The sample size is obviously small, but Gonzales has struggled with both left and right-handed hitters. Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, and Jonathan Schoop are all borderline elite plays at their respective positions against the young lefty.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.345 0.324 0.152 37.3% 9.9% 28.8% 49.3% SS $3,600 SS $4,500 N/A N/A
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.339 0.377 0.218 47.5% 7.6% 16.8% 41.8% 3B $4,000 3B $5,400 N/A N/A
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.388 0.374 0.289 38.6% 8.7% 25.2% 42.2% 2B $3,600 2B $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.315 0.314 0.179 30.4% 7.0% 20.2% 41.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,900 N/A N/A
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.297 0.317 0.134 32.6% 4.8% 26.2% 52.3% OF $3,600 1B/OF $4,400 N/A N/A
6 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.308 0.271 0.155 30.1% 6.8% 22.9% 41.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
7 Chris Davis LEFT 0.308 0.310 0.136 33.3% 10.9% 37.8% 33.3% 1B $3,300 1B $4,000 N/A N/A
8 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.335 0.341 0.113 38.5% 4.0% 26.7% 34.6% C $2,800 C $3,500 N/A N/A
9 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.313 0.285 0.115 31.0% 5.4% 17.0% 29.3% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle

I’ve actually had some shared of Ubaldo Jimenez in his last two starts, but I’m getting off that bandwagon while I’m ahead. He is not a pitcher that we should trust in the long run, as he has allowed a .328+ xwOBA and a 33%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Jimenez is also one of the worst pitchers in baseball at holding runners, which gives a big boost to Jean Segura, who is always a stolen base threat.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.349 0.295 0.128 24.7% 4.5% 16.5% 56.9% SS $3,800 SS $4,600 N/A N/A
2 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.379 0.385 0.249 32.8% 14.0% 22.7% 32.8% 1B $2,700 1B $3,400 N/A N/A
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.368 0.392 0.226 39.0% 9.7% 10.3% 50.4% 2B $3,900 2B $4,200 N/A N/A
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.382 0.377 0.276 38.7% 7.2% 21.7% 40.3% OF $4,700 OF $5,000 N/A N/A
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.323 0.379 0.190 39.9% 9.1% 15.4% 32.2% 3B $3,400 3B $3,700 N/A N/A
6 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.333 0.298 0.118 27.1% 8.4% 22.1% 43.2% OF $2,500 OF $2,900 N/A N/A
7 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.320 0.284 0.118 18.2% 7.1% 15.2% 43.2% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
8 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.313 0.302 0.244 37.3% 7.3% 39.7% 31.4% C $2,300 C $3,400 N/A N/A
9 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.178 0.231 0.080 23.4% 3.3% 25.6% 43.3% OF $2,200 OF $3,000 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Jean Segura, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz

Secondary Plays – Yonder Alonso, Kyle Seager

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious