MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 20th - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-07-20 18:01:42

Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Miami					Philadelphia
			Wei-Yin Chen					Jeremy Hellickson
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA -132					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.271	4	17.5%	3.4%	SP vs. Left	0.345	17	17.3%	8.7%
SP vs. Right	0.343	43	19.7%	5.7%	SP vs. Right	0.319	23	22.0%	4.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Wei-Yin Chen
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$6,800
					FPPG:		25.3	FPPG:		12.7
					Pitcher Rating:		63.3	Pitcher Rank:		12
L30 Days	5	87.4	4.58	5.53	17.0%	5.1%	9.8%	36.3%	44.0%	36.3%
2016	18	89.8	4.25	4.90	19.1%	5.2%	9.1%	38.5%	40.1%	36.3%
2015	31	97.1	3.97	3.34	19.3%	5.2%	8.6%	40.5%	39.4%	28.3%

Chen isn’t have the season that the Marlins were hoping for when they picked him up. In 18 starts, he has a 4.25 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.1%. His biggest issue has been the inability to get right-handed hitters out. While the Phillies have a couple of left-handed bats in their lineup, Chen will likely have to face six or seven righties again tonight. The strikeout potential is there, but I see him more as a GPP play in this one.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jeremy Hellickson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$7,500
					FPPG:		29.0	FPPG:		15.2
					Pitcher Rating:		60.4	Pitcher Rank:		13
L30 Days	5	91.6	4.01	2.90	18.3%	3.2%	10.9%	41.2%	30.9%	18.4%
2016	19	92.8	3.99	4.03	21.2%	5.8%	11.5%	41.0%	33.9%	28.2%
2015	27	91.8	4.14	4.62	19.0%	6.8%	10.3%	42.4%	36.5%	34.3%

Hellickson is having a pretty nice season for the Phillies. In 19 starts, he owns a 3.99 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.2%. He doesn’t walk a lot of batters and he doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact. He may be an underdog tonight, but I like him as a contrarian GPP play against the Marlins. On the season, Miami is ranked 11th in team wOBA (.321) and 28th in team ISO (.135) against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins haven’t hit right-handed pitching with a ton of power this season, but they do put the ball in play at a high rate. They draw a decent matchup tonight against Jeremy Hellickson, who has allowed a .345 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .319 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. The Marlins also see a small ballpark boost playing in Citizens Bank Park.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.321 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.135 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.8% (5 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.22 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.19 (18 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.317	0.126	0.300	C	$3,000	C	$4,700
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.309	0.093	0.410	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,400
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.372	0.154	0.380	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,800
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.355	0.261	0.565	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,900
5	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.309	0.142	0.280	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,200
6	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.374	0.187	0.238	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,300
7	Chris Johnson	RIGHT	0.245	0.086	0.243	1B	$2,000	1B/3B	$2,200
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.272	0.084	0.215	SS	$2,700	SS	$2,500
9	Wei-Yin Chen	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$8,400	P	$6,800
	Team Averages	—	0.284	0.126	0.292	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton (FD)

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton (DK), Marcell Ozuna, Derek Dietrich

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies may have one of the lowest run projections on the board tonight, but their matchup against Wei-Yin Chen is exploitable. As I mentioned above, Chen has really struggled against right-handed hitters in the last two seasons, allowing a .343 wOBA and a ridiculous 43 home runs. All of the right-handed hitters in this lineup are worth a look, especially in tournaments.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.272 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.110 (29 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.8% (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.60 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.81 (28 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.294	0.069	0.232	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,000
2	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.294	0.107	0.320	OF	$3,200	OF	$2,800
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.335	0.232	0.403	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,800
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.464	0.357	0.635	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,600
5	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.397	0.260	0.342	C	$3,200	C	$3,300
6	Cody Asche	LEFT	0.280	0.097	0.267	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,300
7	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.234	0.029	0.289	SS	$3,100	SS	$2,300
8	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.318	0.061	0.296	2B	$2,300	2B	$2,800
9	Jeremy Hellickson	RIGHT	0.193	0.000	0.000	P	$6,900	P	$7,500
	Team Averages	—	0.312	0.135	0.309	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph

Secondary Plays – Peter Bourjos, Cameron Rupp

Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}YELLOW%

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Milwaukee					Pittsburgh
			Chase Anderson					Jeff Locke
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -148					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.310	13	20.0%	8.6%	SP vs. Left	0.325	8	11.9%	6.6%
SP vs. Right	0.361	23	15.3%	5.9%	SP vs. Right	0.330	21	16.8%	8.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Chase Anderson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$4,800
					FPPG:		20.6	FPPG:		9.6
					Pitcher Rating:		38.9	Pitcher Rank:		25
L30 Days	4	80.0	7.26	10.43	12.7%	19.0%	9.4%	24.5%	47.2%	44.4%
2016	17	89.9	4.86	5.44	17.8%	8.8%	8.1%	35.7%	42.1%	37.4%
2015	27	91.2	4.26	4.30	17.3%	6.3%	8.0%	42.0%	34.4%	27.2%

There are very few pitchers in baseball that have had a worse last month than Anderson. In four starts, he has a 7.26 SIERA (10.43 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 12% and a walk rate of 19%. Obviously, he is a better pitcher than that, but we should stay far away from him in DFS. He comes into tonight’s game as a sizable underdog on the road against a Pirates’ offense that is capable of putting up a lot of runs.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jeff Locke
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$5,600
					FPPG:		20.1	FPPG:		8.7
					Pitcher Rating:		52.2	Pitcher Rank:		18
L30 Days	4	95.0	4.51	3.24	12.5%	3.9%	7.6%	48.2%	27.1%	35.6%
2016	17	93.1	5.17	5.26	12.2%	7.4%	7.8%	46.6%	33.4%	30.6%
2015	30	92.7	4.18	4.49	17.5%	8.2%	9.0%	51.0%	24.9%	27.0%

Locke has had a season to forget thus far. In 17 starts, he has a 5.17 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 12.2%. His mistakes are magnified thanks to the low strikeout rate. Even though he is a favorite at home, it’s hard to justify the play. The Brewers are ranked 17th or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team k% against southpaws, but this may be a sneaky spot to target their offense.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

We have a bad offense facing a bad pitcher. These situations can go either way, but I’ll give the edge to the Brewers’ offense in this one. Over the last two seasons, Locke has allowed a .325+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Even though they are underdogs, there are some nice value plays in this lineup tonight.

Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.317 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.147 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.5% (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.94 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.22 (17 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.369	0.156	0.374	SS	$3,100	SS	$4,800
2	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.290	0.187	0.305	3B	$2,900	3B/OF	$3,200
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.413	0.234	0.196	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,200
4	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.288	0.131	0.377	C	$3,300	C	$3,900
5	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.336	0.251	0.330	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,100
6	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.268	0.134	0.304	2B	$3,600	2B	$3,700
7	Will Middlebrooks	RIGHT	0.294	0.189	0.201	3B	$2,100	3B	$2,500
8	Ramon Flores	LEFT	0.240	0.000	0.181	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,100
9	Chase Anderson	RIGHT	0.163	0.000	0.000	P	$6,000	P	$4,800
	Team Averages	—	0.296	0.142	0.252	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Hernan Perez, Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy, Chris Carter

Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}YELLOW%

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are one of the top offenses to target in the evening slate. They have the tenth highest team total overall, as they square off against Chase Anderson at home. I’ve already touched on how bad his form has been coming into the game, but Anderson has also allowed a .361 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. During that stretch, he has also given up 36 home runs.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.317 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.142 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.0% (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.63 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.78 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	John Jaso	LEFT	0.343	0.144	0.257	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,200
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.342	0.165	0.258	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,800
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.355	0.189	0.325	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300
4	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.353	0.156	0.303	OF	$3,600	OF	$5,500
5	Jung-Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.360	0.197	0.243	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,000
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.322	0.079		C	$2,200	C	$3,200
7	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.291	0.099	0.203	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,000
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.274	0.076	0.344	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,200
9	Jeff Locke	LEFT	0.112	0.017	0.000	P	$6,400	P	$5,600
	Team Averages	—	0.306	0.125	0.242	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Jung-Ho Kang

Stackability – YELLOW

San Francisco at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
San Francisco					Boston
			Matt Cain					Drew Pomeranz
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BOS -215					10.5
SP vs. Left	0.398	8	13.1%	6.9%	SP vs. Left	0.231	3	24.9%	9.4%
SP vs. Right	0.345	12	17.9%	7.5%	SP vs. Right	0.280	13	26.0%	9.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Cain
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		18.6	FPPG:		8.5
					Pitcher Rating:		28.7	Pitcher Rank:		28
2016	11	89.5	4.86	5.34	16.1%	7.1%	8.1%	35.3%	39.7%	29.0%
2015	11	90.3	4.78	5.79	15.1%	7.4%	9.0%	35.8%	40.3%	36.4%

Cain is hoping to turn things around in the second half of the season, but he hasn’t been a good pitcher for a few years now. In 11 starts this season, he has a 4.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16.1%. Unfortunately, he has to face the Red Sox in Fenway Park tonight. On the season, Boston is ranked first in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and first in runs scored per game.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Drew Pomeranz
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,500	Salary:		$10,600
					FPPG:		39.0	FPPG:		21.8
					Pitcher Rating:		82.7	Pitcher Rank:		3
L30 Days	4	96.5	3.21	1.33	26.3%	4.0%	11.4%	50.0%	39.4%	29.4%
2016	17	99.9	3.72	2.47	28.0%	10.0%	11.4%	47.8%	37.1%	28.0%
2015	9	160.2	3.73	3.66	23.0%	8.7%	11.0%	42.2%	36.3%	24.9%

The Red Sox acquired Pomeranz from the Padres and he will make his first start with the club tonight. Obviously, pitching in Fenway is a little different than pitching in Petco, but you have to like the form coming into tonight’s game. In his last four starts, Pomeranz has a 3.21 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.3%. The Giants may not strikeout at a high rate, but they are ranked below the major league average in both team wOBA and team ISO against southpaws. Pomeranz is the top pitcher to target in the evening slate.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants draw a difficult matchup against Drew Pomeranz, but they see a nice ballpark boost playing in Fenway Park. They also get to utilize the DH with this game being played in an American League ballpark. I’m not crazy about the Giants’ offense in this one, but Pomeranz has allowed 13 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Giants Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.318 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.148 (23 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 18.4% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.67 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.59 (12 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.256	0.077	0.206	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,800
2	Angel Pagan	SWITCH	0.317	0.080	0.360	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300
3	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.372	0.222	0.309	1B	$3,900	1B	$3,800
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.381	0.207	0.401	C	$3,400	C	$4,500
5	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.313	0.152	0.354	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,000
6	Mac Williamson	RIGHT	0.293	0.167	0.322	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,400
7	Grant Green	RIGHT	0.278	0.125	0.303	SS	$2,300	2B	$2,200
8	Ramiro Pena	SWITCH	0.234	0.000	0.356	2B	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,300
9	Trevor Brown	RIGHT	0.230	0.087		C	$2,100	C	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.297	0.124	0.326	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Buster Posey

Stackability – RED

Boston

The Red Sox have the highest team total on the board tonight, which is no surprise considering the fact that they get to face the struggling Matt Cain at home. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here and a Red Sox stack is a viable option in both cash games and GPPs. Before we move on, I want to point out some splits for David Ortiz. He has a .479 wOBA against right-handed pitching and a .495 wOBA at home this season. Wowza!

Red Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.355 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.188 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.1% (3 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.57 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.91 (1 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.359	0.201	0.403	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,300
2	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT	0.351	0.145	0.371	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,600
3	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.337	0.118	0.267	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,500
4	David Ortiz	LEFT	0.438	0.346	0.366	1B	$4,100	1B	$5,600
5	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.314	0.142	0.329	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,900
6	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.377	0.279	0.354	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600
7	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.343	0.192	0.419	3B	$3,400	1B/3B	$4,800
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.316	0.086	0.486	C	$3,100	C	$3,200
9	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.313	0.116	0.426	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800
	Team Averages	—	0.350	0.181	0.380	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Travis Shaw

Stackability – GREEN

San Diego at St. Louis – 8:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
San Diego					St. Louis
			Paul Clemens					Jaime Garcia
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL -205					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.412	1	23.8%	19.1%	SP vs. Left	0.281	3	20.8%	3.9%
SP vs. Right	0.460	4	10.0%	15.0%	SP vs. Right	0.281	13	18.7%	7.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Paul Clemens
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		11.6	FPPG:		4.6
					Pitcher Rating:		27.5	Pitcher Rank:		30
L30 Days	2	90.5	6.33	4.73	14.8%	16.4%	4.7%	31.6%	47.4%	48.8%
2016	2	90.5	6.33	4.73	14.8%	16.4%	4.7%	31.6%	47.4%	48.8%

Clemens will get the start in the second half of the double-header against the Cardinals. This will be his third start this season, after making his last three appearances out of the bullpen. The sample size is small, but he currently owns a 6.33 SIERA with a strikeout ate of 14.8% and a walk rate of 16.4%. He is an easy fade tonight against the Cardinals, who are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jaime Garcia
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$7,900
					FPPG:		28.6	FPPG:		14.5
					Pitcher Rating:		77.8	Pitcher Rank:		6
L30 Days	5	97.2	4.27	4.55	18.7%	9.4%	9.5%	59.2%	25.5%	26.5%
2016	18	89.9	4.00	4.11	19.3%	8.2%	9.0%	58.5%	22.5%	27.6%
2015	20	92.9	3.39	2.43	19.0%	5.9%	9.2%	61.2%	22.3%	27.1%

Garcia is the ultimate boom or bust play tonight against the Padres. He hasn’t been in good form coming in and he has to face a Padres’ offense that has been mashing left-handed pitching. On the season, San Diego is ranked second in team wOBA and sixth in team ISO against southpaws. The good news for Garcia is that the Padres have the third highest k-rate against lefties and that he gets to face them at home. There are better cash game targets, but the upside is there for Garcia in GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

It’s a bit strange to see that the Cardinals have the fourth lowest implied team total tonight. They have been crushing left-handed pitching over the last two months and Jaime Garcia has been very hittable in his last few starts. You can certainly give a few of the right-handed batters in this lineup a look, especially in tournaments.

Padres Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.347 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.184 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 24.3% (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.45 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.89 (27 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.368	0.239	0.379	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,000
2	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.395	0.209	0.348	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,900
3	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.373	0.259	0.328	OF	$2,800	OF	$5,100
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.338	0.168	0.379	3B	$3,600	2B/3B	$4,900
5	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.336	0.161	0.339	C	$2,900	C	$3,800
6	Alexei Ramirez	RIGHT	0.311	0.099	0.271	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,000
7	Alex Dickerson	LEFT	0.333	0.200	0.364	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,000
8	Adam Rosales	RIGHT	0.297	0.157	0.289	2B	$2,600	2B/3B	$3,600
9	Paul Clemens	RIGHT	0.000	0.000		P	$5,000	P	$4,000
	Team Averages	—	0.306	0.166	0.337	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Melvin Upton, Wil Myers, Matt Kemp, Derek Norris

Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}YELLOW%

St. Louis

The Cardinals are ranked seventh or better in all five of the offensive categories listed below. That’s promising in and of itself, but I also like the fact that they get to face an inexperienced pitcher that has walked more batters than he has struck out this season. Hitters from both sides of the plate are worth a look here and a Cardinals’ stack is certainly in play.

Cardinals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.345 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.197 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.5% (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.15 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.11 (4 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.364	0.269	0.450	OF	$2,800	OF	$5,100
2	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.396	0.234	0.408	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,700
3	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.348	0.176	0.359	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300
4	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.347	0.166	0.264	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,600
5	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.314	0.187	0.180	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,400
6	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.296	0.089	0.328	C	$2,700	C	$3,000
7	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.295	0.163	0.264	SS	$2,500	1B/2B	$4,000
8	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.320	0.129	0.278	2B	$2,900	2B	$2,900
9	Jaime Garcia	LEFT	0.115	0.000	0.000	P	$8,000	P	$7,900
	Team Averages	—	0.311	0.157	0.281	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Randal Grichuk, Aledmys Diaz, Stephen Piscotty

Secondary Plays – Matt Holliday, Matt Adams, Yadier Molina

Stackability – GREEN

Texas at LA Angels – 10:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Texas					LA Angels
			Martin Perez					Hector Santiago
			LEFT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAA -125					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.247	2	20.7%	10.7%	SP vs. Left	0.287	5	19.2%	8.8%
SP vs. Right	0.338	12	10.1%	8.2%	SP vs. Right	0.322	41	21.5%	9.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Martin Perez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		22.6	FPPG:		10.0
					Pitcher Rating:		28.5	Pitcher Rank:		29
L30 Days	5	94.2	5.95	6.11	6.3%	9.4%	3.6%	51.9%	26.9%	30.6%
2016	19	95.7	5.35	4.05	10.9%	9.9%	6.6%	53.9%	25.7%	31.6%
2015	14	86.8	4.06	4.46	14.2%	7.1%	7.5%	59.9%	22.1%	22.7%

I’ve been harping on Perez all season. There was no way that his low ERA was going to hold with the way that he was pitching. That regression has really shown over the last month, as he has a 6.11 ERA with a strikeout rate of 6.3% during that stretch. He draws a mediocre matchup against the Angels, but is far from a viable fantasy option tonight. Continue to avoid Perez in all league formats.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Hector Santiago
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$8,000
					FPPG:		27.8	FPPG:		14.1
					Pitcher Rating:		58.8	Pitcher Rank:		15
L30 Days	5	102.6	4.56	1.95	23.3%	10.9%	10.3%	37.3%	56.6%	41.0%
2016	19	95.1	4.61	4.27	21.0%	9.9%	10.0%	39.2%	47.3%	35.6%
2015	32	98.8	4.50	3.59	20.9%	9.2%	8.5%	29.9%	53.6%	33.6%

Santiago has pitched very well in his last couple of starts, but his peripheral statistics suggest that he has been a bit fortunate recently. The strikeout rate is appealing, but he draws a fairly tough matchup tonight against the Rangers. On the season, Texas is ranked tenth in both team wOBA and team k% against left-handed pitching. Santiago isn’t the worst play on the board, but he’s not on my radar tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers have the seventh lowest team total on the board tonight, but there are a few hitters that are worth a look in this one. Over the last two seasons, Hector Santiago has allowed a .322 wOBA and 41 home runs to right-handed hitters.

Rangers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.332 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.153 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.5% (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.82 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.10 (24 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.340	0.172	0.401	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,700
2	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.372	0.194	0.353	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,300
3	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.338	0.193	0.366	2B	$3,000	2B	$4,200
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.394	0.223	0.282	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,700
5	Prince Fielder	LEFT	0.293	0.135	0.280	1B	$2,500	1B	$2,100
6	Ryan Rua	RIGHT	0.348	0.208	0.215	OF	$3,200	1B/OF	$3,200
7	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.242	0.000	0.328	2B	$2,600	1B/3B	$3,400
8	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.348	0.155	0.420	SS	$2,800	SS	$4,400
9	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.368	0.260	0.188	C	$2,600	C	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.338	0.171	0.315	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Ryan Rua

Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}YELLOW%

LA Angels

The Angels have the lowest strikeout rate of any team in the majors and their numbers against southpaws are slowly getting better. They are now ranked 11th in team wOBA against lefties. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against Martin Perez, who comes into the game in awful form. Over the last two seasons, Perez has allowed a .338 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.331 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.161 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 15.6% (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.55 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.40 (14 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Yunel Escobar	RIGHT	0.370	0.126	0.362	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,700
2	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.320	0.163	0.354	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,700
3	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.415	0.251	0.329	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,200
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.331	0.255	0.290	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,500
5	Daniel Nava	SWITCH	0.292	0.029	0.410	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,800
6	Jefry Marte	RIGHT	0.338	0.258	0.326	3B	$2,400	1B/3B	$3,400
7	Johnny Giavotella	LEFT	0.272	0.063	0.187	2B	$2,400	2B	$2,300
8	Jett Bandy	RIGHT	0.600	0.579	0.321	C	$2,500	C	$2,800
9	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.269	0.067	0.357	SS	$2,000	SS	$3,600
	Team Averages	—	0.356	0.199	0.326	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 20th - Page Three

Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton (FD)

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton (DK), Marcell Ozuna, Derek Dietrich

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph

Secondary Plays – Peter Bourjos, Cameron Rupp

Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}*YELLOW*%

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Hernan Perez, Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy, Chris Carter

Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}*YELLOW*%

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Jung-Ho Kang

Stackability – YELLOW

San Francisco at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Buster Posey

Stackability – RED

Boston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Travis Shaw

Stackability – GREEN

San Diego at St. Louis – 8:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Melvin Upton, Wil Myers, Matt Kemp, Derek Norris

Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}*YELLOW*%

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Randal Grichuk, Aledmys Diaz, Stephen Piscotty

Secondary Plays – Matt Holliday, Matt Adams, Yadier Molina

Stackability – GREEN

Texas at LA Angels – 10:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Ryan Rua

Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}*YELLOW*%

LA Angels

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Mike Trout, Albert Pujols

Secondary Plays – Yunel Escobar, Daniel Nava

Stackability – YELLOW-%{color:green}*GREEN*%

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Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}YELLOW%

Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}YELLOW%

Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}YELLOW%

Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}YELLOW%

Stackability – YELLOW-%{color:green}GREEN%