MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-07-21 01:55:06

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Atlanta at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

Atlanta					Cincinnati
			Lucas Harrell					Anthony DeSclafani
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CIN -180					9.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.241	0	21.9%	6.3%	SP vs. Left	0.345	16	19.0%	8.4%
SP vs. Right	0.324	0	17.5%	10.0%	SP vs. Right	0.293	5	20.3%	4.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lucas Harrell
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,900	Salary:
					FPPG:		28.3	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		44.8	Pitcher Rank:		22
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	3	93.7	4.44	3.63	19.4%	8.3%	9.3%	47.9%	35.4%	22.0%
2016	3	93.7	4.43	3.63	19.4%	8.3%	9.3%	47.9%	35.4%	22.0%

This game is only featured in the all-day slate on FanDuel, so most of you can skip down to the next game if you are playing in the early-only slate. Harrell hasn’t been great in his first three starts this season and he hasn’t had a great track record in the majors in his career. He is a hittable pitcher that comes into today’s game as a large underdog on the road. With this game featuring such a high over/under, Harrell should be avoided in both cash games and GPPs.

Anthony DeSclafani
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,800	Salary:
					FPPG:		35.7	FPPG:
					Pitcher Rating:		76.6	Pitcher Rank:		8
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	104.2	3.19	2.67	25.8%	2.3%	10.2%	42.5%	42.5%	28.9%
2016	7	99.9	3.93	2.55	21.4%	5.2%	9.9%	42.0%	37.8%	28.2%
2015	31	94.0	4.08	4.05	19.2%	7.0%	9.5%	45.1%	33.6%	31.4%

I really wish this game was included in the early-only slates on FanDuel and DraftKings because I really want to use Desclafani with a bunch of batters from Coors Field. You can still do that in the all-day slate on FD, though. Desclafani has been rock solid over the last month of play, posting a 3.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.8% and a walk rate of 2.3%. He draws a favorable matchup against the Braves, who are ranked dead last in both team wOBA (.283) and team ISO (.114) against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves may not have the worst matchup on the board today, but they still have the fifth lowest team total. As a whole, they have been struggling to score runs all season. The good news is that they get a sizable ballpark boost playing in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Anthony Desclafani has been pitching well recently, but has allowed a .345 wOBA to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

• Braves Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.283 (30 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.114 (30 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.1% (11 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.40 (30 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.04 (26 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jace Peterson, Freddie Freeman

Stackability – RED

Cincinnati

The Reds are a viable offense to target today if you are playing in the all-day slate. They come into the game with the fifth highest implied team total on the board, as they square off against the hittable Lucas Harrell. In his career, Harrell has allowed a .338 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .335 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The Reds’ offense has also been heating up in this series, scoring 13 runs in the first two games.

• Reds Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.295 (28 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.152 (19 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.3% (22 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.16 (22 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.96 (5 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Jay Bruce, Adam Duvall

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota at Detroit – 1:08 PM ET

Minnesota					Detroit
			Ervin Santana					Justin Verlander
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -175					9.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.319	11	14.5%	9.1%	SP vs. Left	0.273	13	23.9%	6.9%
SP vs. Right	0.310	12	21.5%	5.7%	SP vs. Right	0.298	16	22.8%	5.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ervin Santana
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$7,400
					FPPG:		24.4	FPPG:		12.8
					Pitcher Rating:		43.4	Pitcher Rank:		23
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	104.4	4.28	2.18	19.1%	5.6%	7.3%	41.1%	41.1%	25.3%
2016	17	94.5	4.52	4.12	17.9%	6.9%	8.8%	42.6%	37.0%	29.2%
2015	17	98.7	4.43	4.00	17.9%	7.9%	9.5%	40.9%	37.6%	28.1%

Santana is always a tough pitcher to peg. He is wildly inconsistent start to start and he generally doesn’t have the strikeout upside that we are looking for in a pitcher. His numbers on the season are mediocre at best, as he currently sports a 4.52 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 17.9%. He is a large underdog today, as he squares off against the Tigers in Detroit. There is more risk than potential reward with Santana in this one.

Justin Verlander
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$11,000
					FPPG:		37.3	FPPG:		20.2
					Pitcher Rating:		81.3	Pitcher Rank:		4
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	102.2	3.92	4.02	24.6%	7.5%	13.1%	35.6%	48.3%	23.6%
2016	19	106.1	3.72	3.91	25.6%	6.9%	11.9%	35.6%	45.9%	27.4%
2015	20	107.5	3.95	3.37	21.1%	6.0%	10.0%	34.6%	45.5%	23.0%

Verlander grades out as one of the best pitching options in the early slate and he actually is ranked fourth among the 30 pitchers to take the mound in the all-day slate. He is having a solid season overall, posting a 3.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.6% and a walk rate of 6.9%. He generates a lot of swings and misses and he doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact. He draws a favorable strikeout matchup tonight against the Twins, who have a team k-rate of 21.6% against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins haven’t been great against right-handed pitching this season, ranking below the major league average in both team wOBA and team ISO. They draw a difficult matchup today against Justin Verlander, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA over the last two seasons. You could look to Brian Dozier or Miguel Sano as one-offs in a tournament, but the rest of the Twins can be avoided.

• Twins Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (20 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.155 (18 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.6% (19 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.43 (18 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.07 (25 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

Someone forgot to tell the Tigers’ offense to show up in this series. Despite two great matchups against Ricky Nolasco and Tommy Milone, the Tigers have scored a combined two runs in the first two games of the series. Hopefully they can turn it around today against Ervin Santana, who has allowed a .310+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

• Tigers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (9 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.171 (12 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.2% (21 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.76 (10 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.93 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Victor Martinez, Nick Castellanos, Justin Upton

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland at Kansas City – 2:15 PM ET

Cleveland					Kansas City
			Carlos Carrasco					Ian Kennedy
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CLE -132					8.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.283	15	27.3%	7.4%	SP vs. Left	0.342	29	24.7%	8.5%
SP vs. Right	0.284	15	28.3%	5.1%	SP vs. Right	0.328	24	24.0%	6.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Carrasco
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,000	Salary:		$10,400
					FPPG:		36.2	FPPG:		20.2
					Pitcher Rating:		85.0	Pitcher Rank:		1
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	6	99.0	3.78	1.58	25.2%	8.4%	12.3%	49.5%	34.7%	27.5%
2016	13	91.4	3.65	2.49	23.7%	6.7%	11.5%	50.9%	31.5%	33.9%
2015	30	92.6	2.74	3.63	29.6%	5.9%	14.0%	51.2%	29.8%	27.5%

Carrasco should be the chalk play in both the early-only and the all-day slates. He has really pitched well this season, posting a 2.49 ERA (3.65 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 23.7%. The Royals are a team that likes to swing at pitches early in the count, which can be good or bad for a pitcher. On the one hand, it allows a pitcher to get ahead early in the count and it also allows them to keep their pitch count low. On the other hand, the Royals can make you pay if you throw too many pitches over the heart of the plate. I like Carrasco here, but don’t see him as an absolute must play.

Ian Kennedy
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$8,100
					FPPG:		31.7	FPPG:		16.8
					Pitcher Rating:		66.3	Pitcher Rank:		11
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	95.0	3.24	2.96	30.9%	7.3%	9.7%	31.3%	49.3%	39.7%
2016	18	100.1	4.04	3.86	24.3%	8.0%	9.9%	33.5%	47.5%	36.7%
2015	30	97.0	3.61	4.28	24.4%	7.3%	10.3%	38.5%	38.7%	35.2%

Kennedy has been on a Matt Shoemaker-like run over the last month of play, posting a 3.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30.9%. He is always on my radar for GPPs when he is pitching at home, because Kauffman Stadium is one of the worst ballparks for home runs. The long ball has been his biggest problem in the last few years and this big stadium helps negate some of that. In terms of the matchup, the Indians are ranked seventh in team wOBA (.333) against right-handed pitching this season. Kennedy is worth a look in tournaments, but he is still too risky in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians draw a boom or bust type of matchup against Ian Kennedy. While he has been in great form coming into this game, he has allowed 53 home runs in his last 48 starts. During that stretch, he has given up a .342 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .328 wOBA to right-handed hitters. The question is whether you trust recent form or long-term results more.

• Indians Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.333 (7 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.194 (3 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.2% (14 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.96 (6 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.19 (18 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor

Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}*YELLOW*%

Kansas City

The Royals draw one of the most difficult matchups on the schedule today. Over the last two seasons, Carlos Carrasco has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA. He is a high strikeout pitcher that also induces a lot of ground balls. We know that the Royals can spoil the outings of an ace every at any time, but this isn’t the spot to use their hitters in DFS.

• Royals Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (21 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.130 (29 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.1% (11 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.00 (25 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.81 (28 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

NY Mets at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

NY Mets					Chicago Cubs
			Bartolo Colon					Kyle Hendricks
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -159					9.0
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.319	21	15.7%	3.9%	SP vs. Left	0.320	15	20.2%	7.1%
SP vs. Right	0.305	17	17.3%	3.0%	SP vs. Right	0.251	10	23.5%	5.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Bartolo Colon
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$7,100
					FPPG:		26.7	FPPG:		13.5
					Pitcher Rating:		46.9	Pitcher Rank:		19
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	68.6	4.68	3.42	12.9%	5.9%	4.1%	52.4%	29.3%	39.0%
2016	18	85.2	4.35	3.11	16.1%	4.4%	5.2%	44.3%	31.4%	37.1%
2015	31	87.3	4.02	4.16	16.7%	2.9%	6.4%	42.3%	36.9%	29.0%

Colon may experience some regression in the second half of the season. His SIERA is a full run higher than his ERA, which is usually a red flag for me when that pitcher doesn’t have an above-average strikeout rate. Colon draws one of the toughest matchups on the board today and there is a helping wind blowing out in Wrigley Field. As a large underdog on the road, there is no reason to consider Colon in any league format.

Kyle Hendricks
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$10,200
					FPPG:		31.2	FPPG:		17.1
					Pitcher Rating:		76.9	Pitcher Rank:		7
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	108.2	4.10	0.87	21.9%	7.8%	9.8%	46.6%	37.5%	23.9%
2016	17	95.0	3.93	2.41	21.1%	6.9%	9.0%	52.2%	30.4%	23.5%
2015	32	87.3	3.37	3.95	22.6%	5.8%	8.1%	51.3%	26.9%	25.8%

Hendricks is an intriguing play in the early-only slate, as Joe Maddon has loosened the reigns quite a bit recently. In his last five starts, Hendricks is averaging 108.2 pitches, which is 13 more than his season total and 21 more than his average a year ago. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Mets, although the helping wind blowing out is a bit of a concern. I like his chances to pick up a win here, but slightly prefer Carlos Carrasco or Justin Verlander.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets’ offense has been better since acquiring Jose Reyes, but they still average the third fewest runs per game. They have a low team total today against Kyle Hendricks, but there is an 8-10 MPH wind blowing out to left field. As we all know, wind impacts Wrigley Field more than any other ballpark in baseball. I’m not going to use any Mets’ hitters in cash games, but there are a few that are on my radar for GPPs.

• Mets Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.310 (19 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.179 (8 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.5% (23 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.81 (28 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.16 (20 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Curtis Granderson, Yoenis Cespedes

Stackability – ORANGE-%{color:#EAEA32}*YELLOW*%

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are large favorites today at home and they come into the game with the ninth highest team total on the board. Bartolo Colon has pitched well at times this season, but it’s not like you can’t get hits against him. He is a low strikeout pitcher that relies on perfect location with his pitches. With the wind blowing out to left, there are a number of viable plays in this Cubs’ lineup.

• Cubs Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.329 (8 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.172 (11 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 23.1% (25 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.16 (2 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 4.84 (9 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward

Stackability – YELLOW-%{color:green}*GREEN*%

Tampa Bay at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Tampa Bay					Colorado
			Chris Archer					Jorge De La Rosa
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TB -110					11.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
SP vs. Left	0.288	17	27.9%	7.8%	SP vs. Left	0.316	6	24.0%	8.2%
SP vs. Right	0.300	22	28.2%	8.8%	SP vs. Right	0.345	23	19.3%	10.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Archer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$5,700
					FPPG:		31.3	FPPG:		16.5
					Pitcher Rating:		55.8	Pitcher Rank:		17
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	108.4	3.99	4.88	24.6%	9.0%	12.9%	44.3%	40.9%	36.4%
2016	20	103.3	3.83	4.68	26.5%	9.5%	11.7%	44.1%	35.5%	34.9%
2015	34	101.4	3.08	3.23	29.0%	7.6%	12.8%	46.1%	33.9%	32.2%

Archer is hoping to have as much success as Blake Snell did last night in Coors. I completely jinxed the Rockies by saying that they could possibly cover the over/under by themselves. That’s baseball for you, the unexpected happens on a nightly basis. Archer has a high strikeout rate, but he does give up a lot of fly balls and a lot of hard contact. That could spell trouble for him in Coors.

Jorge De La Rosa
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$6,000
					FPPG:		22.1	FPPG:		9.8
					Pitcher Rating:		38.5	Pitcher Rank:		26
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
L30 Days	5	98.0	5.23	3.09	14.9%	11.2%	11.2%	52.0%	31.6%	25.3%
2016	12	98.3	4.59	5.50	19.5%	10.4%	11.2%	49.0%	31.9%	30.6%
2015	26	94.6	4.10	4.17	21.1%	10.2%	11.7%	52.0%	27.3%	32.6%

De La Rosa has a low ERA over the last month of play, but the rest of his statistics are below-average. Overall, he owns a 4.59 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.5% and a walk rate of 10.4%. He does induce a lot of ground balls, but the Rays are one of the best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching. De La Rosa should be avoided here, as Tampa Bay has the second highest implied team total on the board.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays are a top five offense against left-handed pitching this season, sporting a .343 wOBA and a .189 ISO as a team. They draw a favorable matchup today against Jorge De La Rosa and they obviously see a massive ballpark boost playing in Coors Field. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here, but give an edge to those that can hit from the right side of the plate.

• Rays Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.343 (5 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.189 (5 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 24.7% (30 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 3.88 (27 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 5.81 (2 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Logan Forsythe, Steve Pearce, Evan Longoria, Steven Souza

Secondary Plays – Brandon Guyer, Tim Beckham, Curt Casali

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado

The Rockies may be underdogs today, but they aren’t far behind the Rays in terms of their run projection. They have been one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching, especially at home. Chris Archer is a high strikeout pitcher, but we have seen him get shelled on a number of different occasions this season. Don’t hesitate to roster any of the Rockies’ hitters in this one.

• Rockies Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.339 (4 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.186 (6 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 19.9% (9 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.15 (3 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 5.69 (3 of 30)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Trevor Story

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Mark Reynolds, Nick Hundley

Stackability – GREEN

Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums

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