MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 8th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-09 02:21:33

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Chicago Cubs					Philadelphia
			John Lackey					Vince Velasquez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -180					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.316	13	15.9%	8.7%	SP vs. Left	0.298	7	24.9%	10.1%
SP vs. Right	0.267	15	25.5%	4.0%	SP vs. Right	0.326	6	29.1%	7.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
John Lackey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,000	Salary:		$12,900
					FPPG:		41.2	FPPG:		22.8
					Pitcher Rating:		83.8	Pitcher Rank:		5
L14 Days	3	94.7	3.27	1.74	30.0%	8.8%	14.1%	45.7%	34.8%	36.2%
2016	11	97.0	3.42	2.88	26.5%	6.6%	12.9%	42.2%	36.8%	34.9%
2015	33	94.8	3.90	2.77	19.5%	5.9%	9.4%	46.0%	33.3%	30.1%

With four early games on the schedule, there are three different slates across the industry – early only, all day, and the main slate. As we always do with the Grind Down, we will cover any and every game on the schedule. Lackey will be making his 12th start of the season today against the Phillies. He has really pitched well so far, posting a 3.42 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.5%. I’m a little hesitant to say that he can keep those numbers up though, because pitchers typically don’t trend upward when they get into their late 30’s. None of that matters today though, as he is a top five pitching options against the Phillies. On the season, they are ranked 28th in team wOBA and 18th in team K% against right-handed pitching.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Vince Velasquez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$8,100
					FPPG:		35.3	FPPG:		19.2
					Pitcher Rating:		71.8	Pitcher Rank:		11
L14 Days	3	90.3	4.70	8.31	21.5%	10.8%	10.3%	25.0%	45.5%	31.8%
2016	11	93.2	3.49	3.67	28.5%	8.6%	11.2%	34.8%	43.7%	26.9%
2015	7	139.4	3.74	4.37	25.1%	9.1%	10.5%	31.3%	46.7%	27.3%

Velasquez hasn’t been great in his last couple of starts, but he still owns an impressive 3.49 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28.5% on the season. His numbers are a bit inflated by that one 16-strikeout performance against the Padres, but he should still be thought of as an elite strikeout pitcher. The biggest issue facing him today is his matchup. The Cubs are ranked third in runs scored per game and eighth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. There are better plays for both cash games and tournaments today.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have a mediocre team total of 4.21 runs, but it is actually the third highest projection of the eight teams playing in the early slate. They draw a boom or bust matchup against Vince Velasquez, who has looked very good and very bad at different points throughout the season. The left-handed batters are also in play, but Velasquez has allowed a significantly higher wOBA to right-handed hitters in his career.

Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.330 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.163 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.8% (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.35 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.21 (17 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.344	0.180	0.359	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,500
2	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.336	0.145	0.313	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.380	0.216	0.424	3B	$4,000	3B/OF	$4,800
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.391	0.265	0.447	1B	$4,300	1B	$4,900
5	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.351	0.168	0.323	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,300
6	Albert Almora				0.000
7	Miguel Montero	LEFT	0.323	0.153	0.226	C	$2,400	C	$3,000
8	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.250	0.106	0.348	SS	$2,700	2B/3B	$3,000
9	John Lackey	RIGHT	0.129	0.028	0.000	P	$10,000	P	$12,900
	Team Averages	—	0.313	0.158	0.271	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jason Heyward (FD), Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, Miguel Montero

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Philadelphia

The Phillies draw one of the worst matchups on the board. They can’t seem to do much of anything offensively these days, which is why they have the second lowest implied run total on the board. John Lackey has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters, holding both under a .316 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.291 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.146 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.4% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.24 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.29 (27 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.358	0.134	0.329	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,200
2	Cesar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.292	0.085	0.318	2B	$2,800	2B	$2,500
3	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.289	0.120	0.260	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,700
4	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.340	0.193	0.288	3B	$3,100	3B	$2,900
5	Ryan Howard	LEFT	0.314	0.227	0.194	1B	$2,400	1B	$2,500
6	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.291	0.141	0.359	C	$2,600	C	$2,300
7	Cody Asche	LEFT	0.303	0.164	0.217	OF	$2,200	3B/OF	$2,500
8	Tyler Goeddel	RIGHT	0.318	0.187	0.299	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800
9	Vince Velasquez	RIGHT	0.238	0.000	0.220	P	$8,500	P	$8,100
	Team Averages	—	0.305	0.139	0.276	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Maikel Franco (DK)

Stackability – NONE

Toronto at Detroit – 1:08 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Toronto					Detroit
			R.A. Dickey					Jordan Zimmermann
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -125					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.305	17	13.2%	8.8%	SP vs. Left	0.316	16	18.8%	6.3%
SP vs. Right	0.314	17	16.5%	6.3%	SP vs. Right	0.278	14	18.8%	3.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
R.A. Dickey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$6,900
					FPPG:		23.7	FPPG:		11.8
					Pitcher Rating:		34.1	Pitcher Rank:		26
L14 Days	3	100.0	5.38	3.38	15.4%	14.1%	6.7%	54.7%	24.5%	32.1%
2016	12	98.3	4.69	4.21	16.9%	9.1%	9.4%	47.3%	31.7%	29.3%
2015	33	98.9	4.76	3.91	14.3%	6.9%	9.1%	41.9%	37.2%	23.9%

I could probably just copy and paste the same excerpt every time Dickey takes the mound because my opinion on him from a fantasy perspective hasn’t changed. He may not have the highest ERA in baseball, but he has a high SIERA of 4.69 and a low strikeout rate of 16.9%. He also has to pitch in some of the toughest ballparks in baseball being in the American League East. With his reverse splits, he is an easy fade today against a right-handed heavy Tigers’ lineup.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jordan Zimmermann
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,400	Salary:		$9,500
					FPPG:		36.7	FPPG:		18.4
					Pitcher Rating:		55.6	Pitcher Rank:		21
L14 Days	1	93.0	4.39	3.18	12.5%	8.3%	6.5%	68.4%	26.3%	31.6%
2016	10	101.5	4.42	2.58	15.9%	4.8%	7.2%	45.3%	38.2%	25.7%
2015	33	94.0	3.83	3.66	19.7%	4.7%	8.4%	42.0%	36.2%	29.5%

Zimmermann has been a candidate for regression all season. His SIERA is nearly two runs higher than his ERA and it’s only a matter of time before the hits start finding holes. His .274 BABIP is his lowest since his rookie season, while his left on base percentage of 79.9 is a career high. He seems a bit too expensive for a pitcher that has a strikeout rate under 16% this season. For now, I will continue to avoid Zimmermann, as there are better options at his price point.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays have been a mediocre offense against right-handed pitching this season, ranking 15th in team wOBA and 12th in team ISO. While I don’t want to target Jordan Zimmermann today, I’m not sure that I want to use many hitters against him either. Over the last two seasons, he has held right-handed hitters to a .278 wOBA.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (15 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.168 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.0% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.13 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.35 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.385	0.286	0.286	OF	$4,300	OF	$3,900
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.379	0.254	0.373	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,200
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.375	0.265	0.377	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,100
4	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.337	0.217	0.285	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,000
5	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.301	0.127	0.261	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,900
6	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.303	0.083	0.461	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,700
7	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.373	0.182	0.411	SS	$2,600	2B/SS	$2,400
8	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.293	0.115	0.542	2B	$2,000	2B	$2,300
9	Josh Thole	LEFT	0.198	0.015	0.000	C	$2,000	C	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.327	0.172	0.333	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Smoak, Ezequiel Carrera

Stackability – NONE

Detroit

The Tigers have the highest team total of the eight teams playing in the early slate. They draw an excellent matchup against R.A. Dickey, who doesn’t strike many batters out while also giving up a decent number of home runs – 34 in his last 45 starts. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here, as Dickey has allowed a .305+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.331 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.173 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.3% (25 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.71 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.65 (4 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.338	0.145	0.420	2B	$3,800	2B	$5,100
2	Mike Aviles	RIGHT	0.237	0.064	0.330	2B	$2,000	2B/OF	$2,200
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.413	0.214	0.283	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,100
4	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.314	0.168	0.226	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,500
5	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.363	0.245	0.319	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,600
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.337	0.199	0.337	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.248	0.073	0.373	C	$2,400	C	$2,600
8	Andrew Romine	LEFT	0.269	0.058	0.245	SS	$2,100	3B/SS	$2,500
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.280	0.057	0.344	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,700
	Team Averages	—	0.311	0.136	0.320	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Mike Aviles, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, James McCann

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Atlanta at San Diego – 3:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Atlanta					San Diego
			Julio Teheran					Drew Pomeranz
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SD -150					6.5
SP vs. Left	0.376	25	15.5%	11.3%	SP vs. Left	0.208	3	27.1%	10.4%
SP vs. Right	0.247	12	26.2%	5.4%	SP vs. Right	0.288	9	25.1%	9.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Julio Teheran
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$10,900
					FPPG:		28.4	FPPG:		16.3
					Pitcher Rating:		70.1	Pitcher Rank:		13
L14 Days	3	101.0	3.00	3.50	31.0%	7.0%	10.2%	41.9%	37.2%	27.3%
2016	12	100.3	3.90	2.92	22.9%	7.3%	9.3%	43.6%	39.6%	34.8%
2015	33	99.2	4.24	4.04	20.3%	8.7%	10.8%	39.5%	36.2%	31.4%

Teheran finds himself in an interesting spot today against the Padres. While I almost exclusively target him when he is pitching at home, I may make an exception for a matchup against the Padres in Petco Park. Teheran comes into the start in good form, posting a 3.00 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% in his last two starts. He is an underdog today, but the matchup is as good as they come. On the season, the Padres are ranked 29th in team wOBA and 26th in team K% against right-handed pitching. I wouldn’t use him in cash games, but Teheran is an excellent GPP option.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Drew Pomeranz
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,700	Salary:		$11,700
					FPPG:		39.8	FPPG:		22.5
					Pitcher Rating:		93.5	Pitcher Rank:		1
L14 Days	3	104.3	3.94	2.84	27.3%	13.0%	9.0%	61.0%	26.8%	10.9%
2016	11	101.1	3.73	2.22	29.4%	11.8%	11.5%	49.0%	37.4%	25.3%
2015	9	160.2	3.73	3.66	23.0%	8.7%	11.0%	42.2%	36.3%	24.9%

Didn’t think I’d see the day that Pomeranz would grade out as the number one pitching option on a day when Noah Syndergaard, Madison Bumgarner, and Max Scherzer were all on the mound, but here we are. He has been tremendous this season, posting a 3.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.4%. He has also been able to pitch deeper into games, which has raised both his floor and his ceiling from a fantasy perspective. He draws he best matchup on the board, as the Braves are ranked 30th in team wOBA and team ISO against left-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves are ranked dead last in four of the five offensive categories listed below. That is not promising in the slightest. They draw an awful matchup against Drew Pomeranz, who is having a breakout season for the Padres. I will be avoiding all of the Braves’ hitters in this matchup.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.255 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.080 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.2% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.09 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 2.96 (30 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.226	0.044	0.255	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,500
2	Chase d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.339	0.170	0.310	2B	$2,500	3B/SS	$2,800
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.318	0.125	0.262	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,100
4	Jeff Francoeur	RIGHT	0.315	0.127	0.396	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,500
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.279	0.053	0.256	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,800
6	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.320	0.107	0.329	C	$2,200	C	$2,600
7	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.327	0.190	0.168	3B	$2,300	3B	$2,700
8	Kelly Johnson	LEFT	0.295	0.127	0.171	3B	$2,100	2B	$2,400
9	Julio Teheran	RIGHT	0.087	0.000	0.176	P	$8,200	P	$10,900
	Team Averages	—	0.278	0.105	0.258	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

San Diego

The Padres may be favorites in this game, but I don’t think anyone is expecting this one to turn into a shootout. San Diego is one of the worst offenses in baseball and they currently have the seventh lowest implied run total on the board. The one area to potentially attack this matchup is with left-handed hitters. Over the last two seasons, Julio Teheran has allowed a .376 wOBA and 25 home runs to batters from the left side of the plate.

Padres Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.280 (29 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.137 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.1% (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.05 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.54 (24 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.283	0.088	0.378	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,400
2	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.331	0.201	0.465	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,400
3	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.301	0.174	0.357	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.336	0.164	0.466	3B	$3,300	2B/3B	$3,200
5	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.310	0.152	0.179	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,200
6	Brett Wallace	LEFT	0.364	0.220	0.317	1B	$2,800	3B	$2,800
7	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.282	0.145	0.415	C	$2,900	C	$3,100
8	Alexei Ramirez	RIGHT	0.273	0.107	0.393	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,900
9	Drew Pomeranz	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.000	P	$9,700	P	$11,700
	Team Averages	—	0.276	0.139	0.330	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jon Jay, Wil Myers, Yangervis Solarte, Brett Wallace

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay at Arizona – 3:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Tampa Bay					Arizona
			Jake Odorizzi					Archie Bradley
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ARI -105					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.262	7	24.6%	5.2%	SP vs. Left	0.310	2	20.0%	17.2%
SP vs. Right	0.326	20	17.8%	8.5%	SP vs. Right	0.356	3	16.1%	6.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jake Odorizzi
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$9,000
					FPPG:		26.9	FPPG:		14.9
					Pitcher Rating:		63.2	Pitcher Rank:		15
L14 Days	3	111.7	3.70	2.00	27.5%	10.1%	9.9%	46.5%	37.2%	25.6%
2016	12	101.3	4.17	3.33	21.0%	7.4%	9.1%	39.7%	41.8%	35.9%
2015	28	98.4	3.90	3.35	21.4%	6.6%	10.1%	37.3%	40.6%	27.0%

The final game in the early slate is between the Rays and Diamondbacks. Odorizzi is a lot like Julio Teheran in that I typically only like to target him when he is pitching at home. Unlike Teheran, his matchup doesn’t make up for it today. The Diamondbacks have a talented offense and Odorizzi has to face them in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. If you want to take a chance on a pitcher in this game, you might as well take the cheaper option in Archie Bradley.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Archie Bradley
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$7,700
					FPPG:		32.8	FPPG:		16.4
					Pitcher Rating:		61.5	Pitcher Rank:		17
L14 Days	2	104.0	2.50	2.70	37.3%	7.8%	13.5%	42.9%	35.7%	17.9%
2016	4	104.8	3.93	4.94	24.5%	10.8%	8.6%	53.0%	27.3%	25.8%
2015	8	80.5	5.28	5.80	14.3%	13.7%	5.9%	58.0%	27.7%	38.6%

Bradley didn’t have a great rookie season, but he is coming off of back-to-back quality starts. He is one of the cheapest pitching options in the early slate and he certainly provides decent value against a Rays’ offense that is ranked 29th in team K% against right-handed pitching this season. Bradley certainly has some red flags (10.8% walk rate and a low swinging strike rate), but the upside is there.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

While I don’t mind taking a shot on Archie Bradley today, I also don’t mind targeting a few hitters against him. The sample size is small (12 starts), but Bradley has allowed a .310 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .356 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. The Rays also see a ballpark boost playing in the hitter-friendly Chase Field.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.187 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.3% (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.16 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.22 (16 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.259	0.138	0.161	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,000
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.339	0.185	0.270	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,900
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.318	0.180	0.513	3B	$4,100	3B	$5,200
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.328	0.192	0.451	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,700
5	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.321	0.180	0.253	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000
6	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.360	0.280	0.246	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,600
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.286	0.185	0.241	2B	$2,300	2B/SS	$3,200
8	Hank Conger	SWITCH	0.331	0.201	0.494	C	$2,100	C	$3,300
9	Jake Odorizzi	RIGHT	0.220	0.000		P	$8,200	P	$9,000
	Team Averages	—	0.307	0.171	0.329	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brad Miller, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – GPP

Arizona

The Diamondbacks come into this game with the 14th highest team total overall, but the second highest of the eight teams in the early slate. As I mentioned above, Jake Odorizzi is a different pitcher at home than he is on the road, where he has allowed a .340 wOBA in his career. I should also point out that Odorizzi is a reverse-splits pitcher, allowing a .326 wOBA and 20 home runs to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Diamondbacks Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.319 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.158 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.6% (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.41 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.28 (14 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.287	0.098	0.229	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,600
2	Michael Bourn	LEFT	0.271	0.048	0.284	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,700
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.402	0.241	0.469	1B	$4,100	1B	$5,000
4	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.347	0.178	0.385	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,900
5	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.304	0.175	0.219	C	$2,700	C	$3,000
6	David Peralta	LEFT	0.386	0.218	0.730	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500
7	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.291	0.111	0.244	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,900
8	Nick Ahmed	RIGHT	0.244	0.110	0.202	SS	$2,100	SS	$2,200
9	Archie Bradley	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.176	P	$6,600	P	$7,700
	Team Averages	—	0.281	0.131	0.326	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Michael Bourn, Welington Castillo / Chris Herrmann, David Peralta

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Kansas City at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Kansas City					Baltimore
			Edinson Volquez					Chris Tillman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL -145					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.300	14	18.0%	8.9%	SP vs. Left	0.312	8	18.9%	10.6%
SP vs. Right	0.316	10	18.6%	8.1%	SP vs. Right	0.334	21	17.4%	7.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Edinson Volquez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$6,600
					FPPG:		29.9	FPPG:		14.6
					Pitcher Rating:		42.9	Pitcher Rank:		25
L14 Days	3	106.7	4.37	4.74	19.5%	9.8%	11.3%	48.2%	25.0%	22.8%
2016	12	103.5	4.36	4.03	18.5%	8.5%	9.1%	51.3%	31.6%	23.3%
2015	33	99.9	4.35	3.55	18.2%	8.5%	9.5%	46.0%	32.9%	30.4%

Volquez has been a serviceable pitcher over the last couple of seasons, posting a 4.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate right above 18%. He is typically in play on smaller slates when there are very few pitching options available. That’s not the case tonight, as he grades out as one of the worst pitching options on the board. He is an easy fade against the Orioles, who are ranked second in team wOBA and first in team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Chris Tillman
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$7,600
					FPPG:		34.6	FPPG:		17.9
					Pitcher Rating:		57.8	Pitcher Rank:		19
L14 Days	3	103.3	4.95	5.30	17.1%	10.5%	8.1%	45.5%	36.4%	36.4%
2016	12	95.3	4.22	3.33	23.3%	10.3%	9.8%	41.4%	39.2%	31.7%
2015	31	94.9	4.69	4.99	16.2%	8.6%	7.1%	43.5%	35.4%	26.9%

Tillman got off to a hot start this season, but has cooled off a bit lately. He now owns a 4.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.3%. The major red flag that I see is his 10.3% walk rate and his hard hit contact rate of 31.7%. The Royals may not have the best offense in baseball, but I never feel confident targeting mediocre pitchers against them. I will be avoiding both pitchers in this game.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals come into tonight’s game with the 12th lowest team total on the board. While they do see a ballpark boost playing in Camden Yards, they aren’t an offense that we get excited to target in DFS. They don’t hit many very many home runs. Their matchup against Chris Tillman is decent, as he has allowed a .312 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .334 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (15 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.133 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.4% (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.86 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.99 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.267	0.060	0.207	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,900
2	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.327	0.087	0.319	OF	$3,100	2B/OF	$4,100
3	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.329	0.132	0.331	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,400
4	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.391	0.199	0.461	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,800
5	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.337	0.198	0.251	C	$2,500	C	$3,900
6	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.335	0.214	0.368	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,400
7	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.310	0.144	0.285	3B	$2,100	3B	$2,800
8	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.304	0.120	0.356	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700
9	Reymond Fuentes	LEFT	0.318	0.000	0.502	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,400
	Team Averages	—	0.324	0.128	0.342	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez (FD)

Stackability – NONE

Baltimore

The Orioles come into tonight’s game with the seventh highest team total on the board. The major question is whether Manny Machado will be in the lineup, after he charged the mound and “threw a punch at Yordano Ventura last night. A suspension is likely coming for Machado, so make sure he is in the lineup if you are considering him tonight. In terms of the Orioles’ matchup against Edinson Volquez, he has given up pretty equal splits to left and right-handed hitters.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.347 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.202 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.0% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.75 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.51 (7 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.336	0.207	0.344	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,300
2	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.419	0.119	0.421	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,500
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.389	0.251	0.398	SS	$4,000	3B/SS	$4,900
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.346	0.199	0.511	OF	$4,100	OF	$5,000
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.394	0.318	0.301	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,200
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.337	0.159	0.300	C	$3,200	C	$3,500
7	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.336	0.234	0.359	3B	$2,700	1B	$3,500
8	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.355	0.234	0.248	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,600
9	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.272	0.129	0.337	2B	$2,300	3B	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.354	0.206	0.358	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 8th

Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jason Heyward (FD), Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo, Miguel Montero

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Maikel Franco (DK)

Stackability – NONE

Toronto at Detroit – 1:08 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Smoak, Ezequiel Carrera

Stackability – NONE

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Mike Aviles, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, James McCann

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Atlanta at San Diego – 3:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

San Diego

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jon Jay, Wil Myers, Yangervis Solarte, Brett Wallace

Stackability – NONE

Tampa Bay at Arizona – 3:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brad Miller, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – GPP

Arizona

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb

Secondary Plays – Jean Segura, Michael Bourn, Welington Castillo / Chris Herrmann, David Peralta

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Kansas City at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez (FD)

Stackability – NONE

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Hyun-Soo Kim, Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – Cash & GPP

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