NFL Pick'em Pool Week 11 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. As a disclaimer, these picks lock on Thursday afternoon for the purposes of this article, which is, of course, prior to getting final injury reports for the week. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
We didn’t see too many unexpected outcomes in Week 10. The biggest upset of the weekend was the Dolphins taking down the Bills, but even that was within the range of possible results after Buffalo ruled out CB Christian Benford and CB Taron Johnson prior to kickoff.
In Week 11, there could be some room for a few more upsets, with only 3 teams favored by 7+ points on the spread as of this writing. Only 7 of this weekend’s favorites are playing at home, too.
In Week 1, we hit each of our top-4 confidence selections in this article to open the season and probably deserved to be 6-0, but the Falcons blew a late lead at home against the Buccaneers. In Week 2, we delivered on each of our top-8 confidence selections! The Packers blew a 92% win probability in the 4th quarter against the Browns to kill our perfect top-3 record in Week 3. In Week 4, we bounced back with another perfect 5-for-5 at the top of our confidence list. In Week 5, three of the five teams favored by 7+ points were upset, which will lead to losses on any confidence pool list. In Week 6, the Eagles surprisingly ruled out DT Jalen Carter 90 minutes prior to kickoff, and then CB Quinyon Mitchell exited with an injury, playing only 13 snaps, leading to a Philadelphia loss. Our other 5 picks in the top 6 of our confidence rankings all came through!
Week 7 was a good bounce-back week, with 8 of our top 9 confidence selections coming through! In Week 8, we hit each of our top 6 selections and 8 of our top 10 confidence picks overall. We survived Week 9 overall, but 2 of our top-3 selections went down as massive favorites, with the Packers and Lions being upset at home. In Week 10, went 10-4 overall.
This is my 5th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Our best week ever was Week 3 of the 2021 season, in which we went 15-1! That year, we correctly selected 181 of 271 regular season games (66.8% SU), excluding the Week 10 tie between the Steelers and Lions.
Since the inception of this article, we have correctly selected 64% of all NFL games, with our top 6 confidence picks cashing at a significantly higher rate. Only 10 times in 82 weeks have we finished with a losing record in this weekly article.
We are locked in for Week 11 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 11 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 11 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 11 Selections
1. New England Patriots
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Green Bay Packers
5. Houston Texans
6. San Francisco 49ers
7. Pittsburgh Steelers
8. Los Angeles Rams
9. Kansas City Chiefs
10. Philadelphia Eagles
11. Carolina Panthers
12. Miami Dolphins
13. Chicago Bears
14. Dallas Cowboys
15. Jacksonville Jaguars
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 11
Patriots (vs. Jets)
The Jets beat the Browns in Week 10, but their method of success wasn’t exactly something that they are likely to sustain. New York had 54 passing yards on the afternoon – 42 of which came on a single screen pass to RB Breece Hall. New York also scored a pair of special teams touchdowns in less than 60 seconds during the 1st quarter, which enabled them to play with a lead for much of the afternoon.
New England has an exponentially better quarterback in this matchup, with MVP frontrunner Drake Maye leading the offense. Their defense is also in a much better spot as well, with the Jets shipping away a pair of cornerstones at the trade deadline. Thursday games can be volatile, but it’s difficult to see any outcome other than a Patriots win here.
Bills (vs. Buccaneers)
Buffalo was in our top 3 in this article last week, too, and ultimately ended up burning us in a 30-13 SU loss to Miami. However, a primary reason the Bills didn’t show up well in that game was because nearly their entire defense ended up getting ruled out prior to kickoff.
In Week 10, Buffalo’s defense was playing without EDGE A.J. Epenesa, DT DeWayne Carter, DT Ed Oliver, DT T.J. Sanders, LB Shaq Thompson, CB Christian Benford, CB Taron Johnson, CB Dorian Strong, S Damar Hamlin, and S Taylor Rapp. Benford, Johnson, Thompson, and Williams each practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday, which offers some optimism that they could return to the field this weekend against Tampa Bay.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers lost LG Ben Bredeson to injury midway through their last game against the Patriots. He’s already been ruled out for Week 11, meaning that Tampa Bay will be starting their 4th different offensive line combination in the last 4 weeks. That’s a tough challenge to overcome, especially on the road.
Ravens (vs. Browns)
As long as Dillon Gabriel is the starting quarterback for the Browns, it’s going to be difficult for them to win football games. In 5 games this season, Gabriel hasn’t posted better than a 42.3% success rate. His only two positive EPA/play games have come against the Dolphins and Jets – teams with a combined 5-14 SU record in 2025.
Meanwhile, the Ravens have put up 28 points and 27 points, respectively, in 2 games since Lamar Jackson returned from injury. Their defense seems to have found another level of late, too, forcing 6 turnovers in their last 3 games.
Cleveland’s defense remains excellent, but it’s difficult to see an upset in this spot with Gabriel running the team’s offense.
Packers (vs. Giants)
In Green Bay’s 3 losses this season, they have allowed 13, 16, and 10 points, respectively. They have lost those games by a combined 9 points. Put another way – this team isn’t that far away from being undefeated.
Meanwhile, the Giants will be starting 3rd-string QB Jameis Winston in this matchup. Winston is a fan favorite for his internet memes and fun personality, but there’s a reason he hasn’t had a permanent job as a starter in years.
Green Bay has a chance to get WR Matthew Golden back this weekend, which would help their offense. Their offense will also be helped simply by the fact that they get to play a Giants defense that has allowed a 50%+ success rate in each of their last 2 games.
Jordan Love and company should be able to get back in the win column on Sunday.
Texans (vs. Titans)
QB C.J. Stroud was still a non-participant in practice on Wednesday as he recovers from a concussion, but assuming he’s able to graduate from concussion protocol by Sunday, Houston is rightfully favored in this game.
The Titans are 1-8 SU this season, which is bad. Even worse, they have lost a number of talented players to injury along the way this fall. They have finished 8 of their 9 games with a negative net success rate, which is a sign that they simply haven’t been competitive on a week-to-week basis.
Meanwhile, the Texans have finished with a positive net success rate in 3 of their last 4 games, with the lone exception coming against the 8-2 Broncos. Houston is well-positioned to win their 2nd consecutive game if Stroud is able to play.
2025 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 9-7
- Week 2: 11-5
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-4-1
- Week 5: 6-8
- Week 6: 8-7
- Week 7: 10-5
- Week 8: 8-5
- Week 9: 8-6
- Week 10: 8-6
Image Credit: Imagn