NFL Pick'em Pool Week 18 Confidence Rankings, Strategy, & Straight-Up Picks
Each week in this article, Nick Galaida will rank each of his selections in order of confidence and also provide reasoning on all of his top picks. If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.
Since Week 10, we are 74-31 (70.5%) in this article! Overall, we have hit 15 of our 16 top-ranked selections in 2025 and 71.7% of our top-9 recommendations.
We went 14-1 in Week 11, hit 8 of our top-9 confidence selections in Week 12, finished 11-5 in Week 13, hit our top-4 recommendations in Week 14 and went 13-3 in Week 15! In Week 16, we hit each of our top-4 selections and 8 of our top 12 overall, then followed that up by going 8-3 on our top 11 overall in Week 17.
This is my 5th year doing this pick’em and confidence pool article. Since 2021, we are 97-47 (67.4%) SU during the final two weeks of the regular season.
We are locked in for Week 18 and ready to do everything we can to put readers in a position to beat their friends and colleagues once again.
Below, we have our Week 17 pick’em pool strategy and confidence rankings!
NFL Week 18 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings
Week 18 Selections
1. Denver Broncos
2. New England Patriots
3. Houston Texans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
5. Cincinnati Bengals
6. Seattle Seahawks
7. Buffalo Bills
8. Minnesota Vikings
9. Los Angeles Rams
10. Atlanta Falcons
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
12. New York Giants
13. Las Vegas Raiders
14. Washington Commanders
15. Detroit Lions
16. Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL Pick’em Pool Strategy: Week 17
Broncos (vs. Chargers)
The Chargers are seemingly going to rest most of their key starters in Week 18. QB Justin Herbert will rest, with backup Trey Lance set to make his 6th career NFL start. Lance started in the Cowboys regular season finale, finishing 20-of-34 passing without a touchdown.
Los Angeles will also be resting Omarion Hampton, Jamaree Salyer, Elijah Molden, and potentially a handful of other players. HC Jim Harbaugh said on Friday that there are starters who could be active, but fill a “backup role.” All signs point to the Chargers having their B-team on the field this weekend, with their focus set squarely on next weekend’s Wild Card round.
Meanwhile, the Broncos still need a win to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff picture, so they will have all of their top talent available. This shouldn’t be much of a contest.
Patriots (vs. Dolphins)
The Patriots continue to look like one of the true Super Bowl contenders and will have the chance to finish off a strong regular season in Week 18 at home against the Dolphins. QB Drake Maye is the only signal caller to have a positive EPA/play in each of his team’s 16 games this season. If he can lead his team to one more win on Sunday, he will secure the No. 2 seed in the AFC playoff picture – and potentially the No. 1 seed if the Chargers can pull off an unlikely upset.
The Dolphins aren’t a pushover, but they are a warm-weather team playing outside in the cold in early January in this matchup. They are also in full evaluation mode for 2026, starting a rookie quarterback. New England should be able to find a way to win this game.
Texans (vs. Colts)
Houston faces an unlikely probability of winning their division in Week 18, but they are still going to be plenty motivated to win on Sunday. The Texans will secure, at worst, the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoffs with a win, setting up a Wild Card round matchup with the winner of the lowly AFC North. If the Texans were to lose, they could slip to the No. 6 seed, facing a much more difficult opponent in the opening round of the playoffs.
The Colts will be starting 6th-round rookie QB Riley Leonard in their season finale. It’s hard to think of a more difficult task for a young signal caller making his first career NFL start and facing arguably the league’s best pass defense on the road.
Houston should roll in this one.
Jaguars (vs. Titans)
Jacksonville needs only to win in Week 18 to clinch the AFC South division title and secure a home playoff game in next week’s Wild Card round. On Sunday, they will host the 3-13 Titans, a team that has the 3rd-worst point differential in the AFC this season.
The Jaguars should win this football game, but we have seen this franchise choke in similar situations in the past. It’s also worth noting that rookie QB Cam Ward has been playing much better of late, which is a potential risk factor here.
Still, the Jaguars are favored by 2 touchdowns for valid reasons. Even if they don’t cover the spread, they should be able to find a way to win.
Bengals (vs. Browns)
The Browns are 2-4 SU in games started by QB Shedeur Sanders, but those wins haven’t come because of Sanders. Cleveland had 270 yards of offense or fewer in both of those victories.
Playing on the road in Week 18, it’s simply difficult to see the Browns offense scoring enough points to keep up with QB Joe Burrow and company. Since Burrow returned from injury in Week 13, he ranks 6th in EPA/play and 9th in Success Rate. Sanders ranks 31st in EPA/play and 28th in Success Rate in that same stretch.
The Bengals defense always leaves a lot to be desired, but this feels like a game Cincinnati should be able to win with their offense alone.
2025 Weekly Results
- Week 1: 9-7
- Week 2: 11-5
- Week 3: 6-10
- Week 4: 11-4-1
- Week 5: 6-8
- Week 6: 8-7
- Week 7: 10-5
- Week 8: 8-5
- Week 9: 8-6
- Week 10: 8-6
- Week 11: 14-1
- Week 12: 8-6
- Week 13: 11-5
- Week 14: 8-6
- Week 15: 13-3
- Week 16: 8-8
- Week 17: 10-6
Image Credit: Imagn