NHL Grind Down: Sunday, December 18th

by Dave Potts (CheeseIsGood) Last Updated 2016-12-19 22:31:05

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The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Los Angeles Kings at Boston Bruins

Los Angeles Kings					Boston Bruins
			Peter Budaj					Tuukka Rask
			Record					Record
			16-12-2					16-13-3
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.60	2.50	15.70%	82.80%	Team Stats	2.34	2.44	13.70%	86.80%

The first game of the day is not a great game to target for DFS purposes. Both teams are in the bottom third of the league in both goals scored and goals against. Boston plays with good puck possession, and is near the top of the league in shots for while being stingy with shots against. Overall, what I see when looking at this game is two of the four best teams in limiting opponents shots on goal, which makes it tough to want to pay for the top skaters in this game. I think it’s fair to say that Patrice Bergeron has become a better in real life than in DFS player. Sure, he should see an increase in his shooting percentage, but they are using him more as a possession player to limit the opposition, so I don’t see paying for him in this matchup. The Bruins leading scorer David Pastrnak is not expected to play today, leaving Brad Marchand as the main offensive threat on the top line, but this is not the best game to pay up for him either. Behind Marchand and Pastrnak, the best offensive players for Boston have been David Krejci and David Backes. I’m assuming Backes will play on the top line today, but either way, both guys are reasonably priced and should play on the top power play, so if looking for a Boston forward, I would use one of them. If you want to play a tournament stack, I would base it on which line Backes is on, and use either a Marchand/Backes or Krejci/Backes combo along with Torey Krug who leads the team in shots on goal, although he has scored only once with a silly 1% shooting percentage.

For the Kings, it’s all about Jeff Carter and Tyler Toffoli doing most of the damage, but Boston will likely work hard to slow them down with their top line. It might be a day to try the Anze Kopitar line, though I can really only recommend playing Kopitar alone or with Drew Doughty, as Marian Gaborik and Trevor Lewis just don’t get a lot of ice time, or do much with the time they get. I’m a fan of the Kings defensemen, as all of Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin and Alec Martinez have some offensive upside and are in the top six on the team in shots. Doughty is the clear top choice for me, playing on the top power play with Carter and Toffoli. If those guys are going to get going today, the best chance is with a 5-4 advantage. We are stretching to look for other plays in this game today, but if you want to, I suppose Dustin Brown and Tanner Pearson are cheap enough to look at. Pearson also gets time with the top power play unit, but he hasn’t scored since mid-November, and has just two assists in the past month, so it’s not much of a recommendation.

Elite Plays;

None

Secondary Plays;

BOS – Brad Marchand, David Backes, David Krejci, Torey Krug

LAK – Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli

Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets

Colorado Avalanche					Winnipeg Jets
			Calvin Pickard					Connor Hellebuyck
			Record					Record
			11-17-1					14-16-3
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.21	3.17	15.90%	80.20%	Team Stats	2.55	2.97	14.80%	75.60%

Colorado has the worst goal differential in the league, and while Winnipeg is nothing special overall, their top line of Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler and Nikolaj Ehlers is in a great spot along with Dustin Byfuglien, who is one of the more reliable players in the game. As a team, the Jets are last in the league in shots per game, but that is more due to lack of depth than lack of talent at the top. Their top five skaters, the top line plus Byfuglien and Patrik Laine, who played on the top line for much of the season have scored 122 points, while the other 22 players with ice time have combined for just 104 points. Scheifele and Wheeler are expensive, but both should be near the top of your list today. I’m going to try and get one of them in cash games, and the line is a top tournament stack. If you need to leave someone off the stack, Ehlers has not been playing the top power play, so he would be the one to skip. I’m very interested in using Dustin Byfuglien in all formats today. He is certainly not as dominant as the top two defenseman, Brent Burns and Erik Karlsson, but he gives you significant savings over them around the industry and has a high floor with his league leading ice time per game. He’s been shooting the puck more recently, with 27 shots on goal in his last six games, and he has 13 points in his last 16 games. It doesn’t look fluky, as his production has gone up with Josh Morrissey playing beside him. Morrissey has played on the power play the past three games, and while he hasn’t seen much production, he is a reasonable cheap option to get exposure to the Jets if you can’t afford one of the bigger names. Outside of the top line and the defenseman, second line center Bryan Little or winger Patrik Laine might be worth a look. Laine has been shooting the puck a lot recently with at least three shots on goal in seven of his last nine games, while Little has four goals in eight December games. Goalie Connor Hellebuyck is not a great player, but does have a solid chance to pick up a win against this poor Colorado team. You could make a case for playing him on FanDuel where his price is a bit lower, but he’s not at the top of the list.

Colorado is the worst team in the league with just 11 wins this season, and the lowest scoring team with only 64 goals. Making matters worse, their even strength lines don’t tend to match up with the power play, making it difficult to stack, on the off chance you would want to. The main places to look for offense on this Avalanche team are Nathan MacKinnon and Tyson Barrie. MacKinnon gets the most consistent ice time and leads the team in shots by a huge margin. The other offensive player I might look at in a tournament setting is Matt Duchene, who joins MacKinnon on the power play, while centering the second line at full strength. Duchene doesn’t have the same volume of shots as MacKinnon, but has been more effective at finding the back of the net with a team leading 12 goals and is tied with MacKinnon for the team lead with 21 points. I can’t make much of a case for Duchene at his price in cash games, but he can be used as a tournament play if you’re looking to do something different. If you want to fit Duchene in, and need salary for other plays, you can always throw in his linemates Mikhail Grigorenko and Mikko Rantanen just for the low salaries (especially Grigorenko at just $3,300 on FanDuel), but they have not done much at all with their ice time. For the defenseman, Tyson Barrie gets the most playing time on the team, and takes a good amount of shots, although they don’t really go in the net, with just two goals on the season. He’s an unnecessary play in cash games with a lot of good options on defense, but if playing either MacKinnon or Duchene, he can be added to a GPP lineup. If you’re really stretching for options, defenseman Francois Beauchemin has been playing on the second power unit with Erik Johnson sidelined.

Elite Plays;

WPG – Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Dustin Byfuglien

COL – None

Secondary Plays;

WPG – Patrik Laine, Bryan Little, Nikolaj Ehlers, Connor Hellebuyck

COL – Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Tyson Barrie

Columbus Blue Jackets at Vancouver Canucks

Columbus Blue Jackets					Vancouver Canucks
			Sergei Bobrovsky					Ryan Miller
			Record					Record
			19-5-4					13-16-2
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	3.32	2.04	25.90%	82.30%	Team Stats	2.39	3.06	14.30%	82.10%

Vancouver is right there alongside Colorado as a team to play against today. They have allowed the sixth most goals and have a better goal differential than only the Avalanche and Coyotes. On the flip side, Columbus is sixth in goals scored and eighth in shots per game and they’ve shown the ability to have some big games. The Blue Jackets have been the best team in the league on the power play, so my first look will be for their top PP line, although some of their best players are on the second power play unit and shouldn’t be ignored. Alexander Wennberg and Nick Foligno play together on even strength along with Brandon Saad, who is the better player overall. Wennberg in particular offers very little production at even strength with a low number of shots, but has been propped up by a high 18.8% shooting percentage that feels a little fluky to me. I will likely reserve that line for tournament play. If I’m looking to Columbus in cash games, which is recommended, the top option is Cam Atkinson, who leads the team in shots and points and leads the top power play unit. His linemates Boone Jenner and Brandon Dubinsky are solid values around the industry, though neither have shown much ability to rack up points with Atkinson doing the bulk of the damage. Outside of Atkinson, my favorite play for the Blue Jackets may be the red hot Sam Gagner, who is stashed all the way down at the fourth line, but plays on the dangerous top power play unit. Gagner has five goals in his last five games and has nine straight games with at least three shots on goal. The scoring will cool off, but as long as he keeps shooting, I’m interested, especially with his low salary on FanDuel. Both Seth Jones and Zach Werenski are viable plays at defense. Werenski is the first place to look as he plays on the top power play and takes more shots, but Jones sees more ice time and picks up more blocked shots. Despite being on the road, Sergei Bobrosvsky is a top choice for goalie today as a big favorite, but also has some upside in saves. He has a .935 save percentage this season, the fifth best mark in the league for starting goalies.

As bad as Vancouver has been, they still have some talent on offense, notably the top line with the Sedin’s. Daniel Sedin does most of the shooting, with a team high 89 shots on goal, but Henrik Sedin has nearly matched him in points with a 20.6% shooting percentage. Though the Sedin’s are the name brand players here, they have been getting a bit of production from Brandon Sutter and Bo Horvat. The problem with using forwards outside of the Sedin’s is the distribution of even strength and power play time. Sutter has been getting a lot of ice time and plays on the top power play, but his best linemate, Loui Eriksson plays on the second power play unit. Likewise, the third line has some decent talent with Bo Horvat, Sven Baertschi and Alexandre Burrows, but they are split up on the power play. It sounds like Troy Stecher may not play today, in which case Ben Hutton would be an acceptable play, but I’d only look at him as part of a stack, as the defensive options are much better elsewhere.

Elite Plays;

CBJ – Cam Atkinson

VAN – None

Secondary Plays;

CBJ – Zach Werenski, Seth Jones, Sam Gagner, Brandon Saad, Nick Foligno

VAN – Daniel Sedin, Brandon Sutter, Henrik Sedin

Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders

Ottawa Senators					New York Islanders
			Andrew Hammond					Jaroslav Halak
			Record					Record
			17-11-3					11-13-6
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.33	2.70	16.20%	81.70%	Team Stats	2.60	3.03	13.40%	78.60%

This is not a very exciting game in real life, but should provide plenty of fantasy goodness.

The Islanders are a bad defensive team, both at full strength and on the power play. They are middle of the pack in goals allowed, but have allowed the fourth most shots per game. They come in last place in the Eastern Conference. If you’re looking for a silver lining here, they get Ottawa on the second half of a back-to-back, and without one of their best players, but that is not enough to keep me away from some Senators exposure. Erik Karlsson is one of the top overall plays today, and will likely make my cash game roster. He is 2nd in the league in playing time and in addition to his consistent shots on goal and ability to score, he racks up blocked shots at a high level. He is a high floor, high ceiling play in all matchups, but especially against the Islanders team. If you can’t afford Karlsson, you can make a strong case for another Senators defenseman, Dion Phaneuf. Phaneuf also plays on the top power play unit and comes at a nice discount, notably on FanDuel. Both of the top two lines are worth a look, though things are a bit shaken up with Mike Hoffman out again today on his suspension. I would lean towards the second line with Derick Brassard and Mark Stone both playing the top power play. I like Kyle Turris, but without Hoffman, his value takes a hit.

The Islanders can be considered today as well. While they are not a good team, it’s more due to their bad defense than their offense. John Tavares has not been as dominant this season, as teams have been able to focus on shutting him down, but he is still an interesting tournament play, though I won’t be paying up for him in cash games. Tavares’ linemates Josh Bailey and Anders Lee are the way to get exposure to Tavares without paying the salary. Lee has seen his playing time come back up recently, and all three are together both even strength and on the top power play. It’s hard to find a reason to play any forwards beyond that top line, but Nick Leddy is another good way to get a piece of the Islanders today. He is very reasonably priced, especially on DraftKings. It’s risky, but you could take a shot on goalie Jaroslav Halak in a GPP, being at home facing an Ottawa team on a back-to-back, and he should see a fair amount of shots on goal. NOTE – It turns out Jean-Francois Berube will start in goal for the Islanders. Normally, you wouldn’t want a guy with a French sounding name playing hockey, but it turns out he’s French Canadien, so we are in the clear! It’s just his third start of the year, but at his low salary, he is still worth a GPP play.

Elite Plays;

OTT – Erik Karlsson, Derick Brassard, Mark Stone

NYI – John Tavares, Nick Leddy

Secondary Plays;

OTT – Kyle Turris, Dion Phaneuf

NYI – Anders Lee, Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson

San Jose Sharks at Chicago Blackhawks

San Jose Sharks					Chicago Blackhawks
			Martin Jones					Scott Darling
			Record					Record
			19-11-1					21-8-4
Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%	Stats	GF/GP	GA/GP	PP%	PK%
Team Stats	2.48	2.19	17.80%	81.70%	Team Stats	2.69	2.31	18.40%	73.30%

The Blackhawks are the top team in the NHL this season with a 21-8-4 record, though their goal differential implies that they are over performing a bit. They have been stellar on home ice with a 12-2-3 record, which helps calm some of the concern of playing a back-to-back against a pretty good San Jose team. The thing to keep an eye on is the health of center Artem Anisimov, who is dealing with an upper-body injury. If he can’t go, they are either going to need Jonathan Toews to log extra ice time to try and deal with the strong centers of San Jose, or be at high risk against either the Joe Thornton or Logan Couture line. If Anisimov doesn’t play, I’m going to shift more focus towards Logan Couture, who finds ways to score regardless of who plays on his line, and he gets top power play time along with the top line of Pavelski/Marleau/Thornton. Of course most of the Sharks production comes from that top line, but I do expect Chicago to focus on them which makes it a little tougher to pay up for Joe Pavelski tonight, but he is absolutely always in play. I often find myself paying down for Patrick Marleau as a way to get exposure to the top line at a discount, as Marleau shoots the puck significantly more than Joe Thornton, though Thornton’s knack for assists makes him a fine play as well. Brent Burns is a beast, leading the league in shots on goal and leading all defensemen in goals and points scored. Of course you have to pay for that production, but he is matchup proof always in play.

For the home team, I’m willing to play Patrick Kane and Artemi Panarin even if Anisimov can’t go, though I’d much prefer them if the line is intact as usual. On a side note, how awesome is it that a guy named Artemi plays next to a guy named Artem? I think it’s fantastic. This line has been so good this year, with Panarin at 32 points, Kane at 31 and Anisimov at 27. That puts the entire line in the top 20 in the league. Chicago always uses the Jonathan Toews / Marian Hossa line more for defense than offense, I’d expect that to be even more the case today with the clear top line to focus on the other side. Sure, you can play Marian Hossa, or even Ryan Hartman at his cheap salary, but don’t expect the scoring to come from this line. Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook are favorite players of mine, but I’m really looking to spend up or down at defense in cash games, so I’ll likely save Keith and Seabrook as add ons in GPP’s where I’m stacking the Kane/Panarin line.

Elite Plays;

SJ – Brent Burns, Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture

CHI – Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin

Secondary Plays;

SJ – Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton

CHI – Artem Anisimov (if healthy), Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Marian Hossa

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