NHL Grind Down: Wednesday, October 12th
The RotoGrinders NHL Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the NHL schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy hockey there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, salaries, and more.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Hockey is an extremely high variance sport. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
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NOTE: Listed team records/statistics are from 2015/16 season.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators – 7:00 PM EDT
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Ottawa Senators | ||||||||
 | Frederik Andersen |  | Craig Anderson | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 29-41-11 | 37-35-9 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.36 | 2.90 | 15.60% | 81.20% | Team Stats | 2.77 | 2.96 | 15.80% | 75.40% |
With a new season upon us, it’s ‘all hope springs eternal’ for both of these teams who were on the outside looking in during last year’s playoffs. This however does not mean that either Toronto or Ottawa will suddenly become teams that can keep the puck out of the net. Last year was the first year since 2004 that a team associated with head coach Mike Babcock did not make the playoffs. This year could be a different story though as he has a season under his belt and a little bit more talent to work with, namely last year’s first round pick in Auston Matthews. Babcock has his crowned jewel on a line with William Nylander and Zach Hyman which could quite possibly be the GPP line of the night. This line is slated as the third line but it oozes with just as much talent as the top two lines. Speaking of which, James van Riemsdyk is back healthy skating with Tyler Bozak and Mitch Marner while malcontent Nazem Kadri will center Milan Michalek and Leo Komarov. It’s tough to base power play time on the pre-season games but one has to think that Bozak and van Riemsdyk have to be the favorites here. Look for defenseman Jake Gardiner to be on the top power play unit along with Kadri, Bozak, van Riemsdyk and Marner while newcomer Nikita Zaitsev will anchor the point on the teams second power play unit. Using Zaitsev could give you some of that precious cap space needed to fill your roster out with those big studs.
Ottawa is trying to change things up a bit as they have hired Guy Boucher as their new head coach. Boucher spent two and half years as the Tampa Bay Lightning head coach until General Manager Steve Yzerman fired him after a 5-3 loss to, you guessed it, the Ottawa Senators back in 2013. Kyle Turris is back healthy as he scored just 13 goals in 53 games last season. Playing through injuries is not conducive to playing good hockey so look for him to have a bounce back season. Turris will center Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone which will make them a nice line to target in cash games tonight. We can’t forget about newcomer Derick Brassard, who may be the best player on the team, as he should skate on a line with Zack Smith and Bobby Ryan. It is for this reason that Ryan’s production should elevate this year as well. If you can afford defenseman Erik Karlsson, I’d suggest rostering him as he has tallied no less than 66 points in any of the last three seasons.
Elite Plays
TOR: None
OTT: Erik Karlsson
Secondary Plays
TOR: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk, Jake Gardiner
OTT: Derick Brassard, Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone, Kyle Turris
St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks – 07:30 PM EDT
| St. Louis Blues | Chicago Blackhawks | ||||||||
 | Jake Allen |  | Corey Crawford | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 49-23-9 | 47-26-8 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.69 | 2.37 | 21.80% | 85.00% | Team Stats | 2.84 | 2.49 | 22.70% | 80.50% |
The only question here is whether or not you want to pay up for Vladimir Tarasenko. In five games last season the Russian star was able to light the lamp five times while collecting two assists. He will be on a line with Jori Lehtera and David Perron while the second line is comprised of Robby Fabbri, Paul Stastny and Alexander Steen. There’s no doubt that the Blackhawks will want to try to keep Tarasenko off the board which may make Stastny and Steen the smarter plays as they will no doubt skate with Tarasenko on the top power play unit. Kevin Shattenkirk is the Blues mainstay on defense but if you are looking for a cheaper play take a quick look at Colton Parayko. A lot of folks may tend to go with Alex Pietrangelo, whose salary is higher, but Parayko is a young talent on the rise with a big shot.
Chicago has reunited Patrick Kane with Artemi Panarin and Artem Anisimov as this trio did a lot of damage last year and by all accounts so far, should be the team’s top power play unit as well. With Andrew Shaw gone the Hawks have inserted Richard Panik on a line with Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa. Panik’s value is limited as it appears he will be replaced on the second power play unit by Nick Schmaltz. It’s going to be hard to fade Kane on a four game slate so it may just come down to rostering either him or Tarasenko as there are some other games tonight that may see a few more goals. There was some question as to whether Duncan Keith would be ready for tonight’s game but that was answered yesterday as it looks like he is good to go. Brent Seabrook will join him on the back line of the team’s top power play unit, making him a decent play at a cheaper price.
Elite Plays
STL: Vladimir Tarasenko
CHI: Patrick Kane
Secondary Plays
STL: Paul Stastny, Alexander Steen, Kevin Shattenkirk
CHI: Artemi Panarin, Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook
Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers – 10:00 PM EDT
| Calgary Flames | Edmonton Oilers | ||||||||
 | Brian Elliott |  | Cam Talbot | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 34-40-7 | 31-43-7 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.80 | 3.16 | 17.20% | 75.00% | Team Stats | 2.42 | 2.95 | 17.90% | 80.90% |
The Calgary Flames are coming off a season where they have given up a league leading 260 goals and there is no reason in the world to think that trend will stop anytime soon. The only saving grace here may be the acquisition of goaltender Brian Elliott who was traded from the St Louis Blues for the 35th overall pick in the 2016 draft. Even with a seemingly better goalie than Karri Ramo or Jonas Hiller, the Flames still have a long way to go. Johnny Gaudreau just signed on Monday and should be good to go for this game. Gaudreau’s road numbers are horrific however as he was only able to muster seven goals and 22 points on the road last season while scoring 23 goals and 56 points at home. Why is this you ask? The Flames have been a one line team for a while now and remain to stay that way until players like Sam Bennett can step up their game. The only other talent that the Flames have is Sean Monahan and defenseman Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie and Dougie Hamilton. Mikael Backlund, Troy Brouwer and Michael Frolik will be in the top six mix somewhere, but are these really players you want to roster, especially on the road? I think not, there are better options for cash games tonight even with just four games on the docket tonight.
The Oilers top six are pretty much cut and dried with Connor McDavid leading the charge as he has been chosen to wear the ‘C’ on his sweater this season. Although being an NHL captain is not what it used to be, it’s still an honor for the second year player to be named the youngest captain in NHL history. He will center Jordan Eberle and knucklehead Milan Lucic. It’s obvious they brought Lucic in to protect their young star and he may even eclipse the career high 62 points he collected with the Boston Bruins back in 2010 in the process. The second line shouldn’t be that bad either as Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is set to center Leon Draisaitl and Benoit Pouliot. All six players should get some power play looks with McDavid getting the lion’s share of the time. The defense is a little murkier however, especially where the power play is concerned. I’d look for Andrej Sekera to get the first shot but if he would happen to falter both Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson are right there waiting for their chance.
Elite Plays
CGY: Johnny Gaudreau
EDM: Connor McDavid, Jordan Eberle
Secondary Plays
CGY: Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie
EDM: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, Milan Lucic, Andrej Sekera
Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks – 10:30 PM EDT
| Los Angeles Kings | San Jose Sharks | ||||||||
 | Jonathan Quick |  | Martin Jones | ||||||
| Record | Record | ||||||||
| 48-28-5 | 45-30-6 | ||||||||
| Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% | Stats | GF/GP | GA/GP | PP% | PK% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Stats | 2.72 | 2.33 | 20.00% | 81.20% | Team Stats | 2.91 | 2.56 | 22.70% | 80.20% |
The Kings open up the season in the ‘Shark Tank’ without the services of either Marian Gaborik ( out until mid-November) and Tanner Pearson (2 game suspension). This will obviously make the lines look a little different so the safest plays here are Anze Kopitar and Jeff Carter as they will no doubt get ample time on the power play. Kopitar has been centering Devin Setoguchi and Dustin Brown while Carter is flanked by Tyler Toffoli and Teddy Purcell. With Carter and Toffoli together one would think the Sharks would try to shut down that line on the road, making Kopitar and one of his wingers a viable option. Defensively you will have to pay up a little for Drew Doughty while Jake Muzzin could be another option.
The Sharks power play has consistently been made up of Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, Patrick Marleau, Logan Couture and defenseman Brent Burns and there’s really nothing to indicate that anything will change in the near future. Only Marleau is not featured in the top six on the team however as he plays on the third line with Chris Tierney and Joel Ward. Thornton centers Pavelski and Tomas Hertl while Couture will center Joonas Donskoi and Mikkel Boedker. Obviously to get the most exposure to the power play Thornton and Pavelski are the choices here, especially at home where they get the last line change, which means they can match up their best line against a secondary line if they wish. Burns is pretty expensive across the board so if you have to dip down a bit in price I’d look elsewhere on tonight’s slate.
Elite Plays
LAK: Jeff Carter, Anze Kopitar
SJ: Brent Burns, Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski
Secondary Plays
LAK: Tyler Toffoli, Drew Doughty
SJ: Logan Couture, Patrick Marleau, Joonas Donskoi