The Relief Brief: Friday, August 5th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-08-07 03:18:07

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

This article will feature three main topics.

1. Bullpen Highlights

— Bad SP combined with bad/tired bullpen
— Bad SP combined with elite bullpen
— Elite SP combined with bad/tired bullpen

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

— Call-ups & Expectations
— Other Roster Movement

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Thursday features a 12 game split-slate. We will cover games from the late portion of the slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights as described above. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Anthony DeSclafani takes on the Pirates tonight. DeSclafani has been a bright (relatively) spot in the Reds rotation. In his ten starts on the season, he has gone for six or more innings on eight occasions. We all know how bad this Reds bullpen is, so the longer DeSclafani can last, the better for the pitching staff overall. The Pirates have the 23rd ranked overall wOBA over the last two weeks, so this may be a spot where the Reds bullpen doesn’t need to work as much as usual, and if they do, we won’t target them as much as usual.

The Cleveland Indians bullpen has been worked relentlessly lately. In their last four games, the bullpen has thrown more innings than the starters in each game. Josh Tomlin will take his 11-3 record into Yankee Stadium tonight in hopes of giving his team a much needed quality start, or a long outing at the very least. Cleveland has been forced to get creative with their bullpen lately by calling up several arms from the minor leagues in order to provide some fresh options. Tomlin has gone for six or more innings in 15 of his 19 season starts, so I like his chances of working deep into this one.

Jeff Samardzija has had a rough stretch lately in which he has given up four or more runs in six of his last seven starts. He’ll face off against the Nationals tonight in the nations capitol. The Giants bullpen has been in the bottom third of the league over the last 30 days, and has shown some definite cracks late in games by blowing leads against the Phillies. Samardzija will be looking to work late into this game, especially since the Giants bullpen doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence (despite some new additions) these days.

Ervin Santana seems like he’s been around forever, doesn’t he? He’s only 33 years old, or 4 years older than yours truly. Santana has been on a decent little run lately with two complete games in his last five starts and two other starts with six or more innings. Over that five game stretch, he has only allowed a total of seven earned runs. The Twins bullpen has been forced into a lot of action lately (though not as much as their foe of the last four days), and Santana will be looking for more of the same. Tampa Bay has the third worst wOBA over the last two weeks, and their lineup only got worse at the deadline. The Twins bullpen has been just about average all season long, but there isn’t much of a need to attack them with Rays bats in this one.

Martin Perez is an interesting guy to look at statistically. Over the course of his 22 starts on the season, he’s averaged six innings per start. His ERA sits at 4.22, but his earned run estimators all sit half a run to a full run higher. He has also exceeded 100 pitches on eight occasions. I say all of that to point out that his numbers are not good, but he’s a guy that gets a longer leash because of managerial style. Perez will face the icy cold bats of the Astros tonight (27th ranked team wOBA over the last two weeks). While the Astros have been struggling at the plate, they certainly have some great bats against left- handed pitching. If Perez does struggle to work deep into this game, the Astros will be facing the bullpen that owns the fourth worst SIERA and the second highest HR/9 allowed in baseball on the season.

Dillon Gee has seven starts on the season and has worked six full innings only once. In those seven starts, Gee has averaged 90 pitches per. Combine those numbers with his .362 wOBA allowed to both righties and lefties, and this seems like a situation where Gee will struggle to get through five innings. Over the last 30 days, the Royals ‘pen has allowed 1.66 HR/9 (third worst in that span), but they still sit in the top third on the season in overall metrics. This is an interesting situation because Toronto has struggled offensively over the last two weeks with the 24th ranked team wOBA during that span. It could be a situation to pounce on, but keep in mind that the Royals ‘pen has the potential to shut down the Jays, and even if the Royals ‘pen doesn’t execute, the Jays may not be in good enough form to capitalize.

David Phelps has started in the past, but has been used entirely out of the bullpen in 2016. Tonight, he will get the spot start against the Rockies at Coors Field. We shouldn’t expect more than five plus from Phelps, so lets look at the Marlins bullpen in a way that makes sense for Coors (batted ball stats). The Marlins bullpen as a whole has the tenth highest FB% in baseball, which plays nicely in their home park, but may cost them in higher elevation. The also have the fifth highest LD% in baseball and the sixth lowest GB%. Those numbers point to some great potential to attack with Rockies bats, however, the Marlins bullpen also has a strikeout percentage of 24.9% (ninth best in baseball).

Braden Shipley shut down the Dodgers through six innings in his last start, which was also just his second career major league start. Tonight, he will make his first career start at home (Chase Field) against the team that he made his first career start against in general – The Milwaukee Brewers. In that start against Milwaukee, Shipley allowed six earned runs (including four walks and three dongs) over five plus innings. If he can limit the walks, he may get through six innings again, but this is always a bullpen that I am looking to attack. The Diamondbacks bullpen has been by far the worst in baseball over the last 30 days. They’ve allowed 2.14 HR/9 and a SIERA of 4.64. Shipley has a chance to pitch well, and even if he does pitch decently, I’ll still be looking to capitalize on this terrible ‘pen.

Chase Anderson has made 20 starts this season, and has averaged exactly five innings per start. Anderson has averaged just a shade over 90 pitches per start. We can expect to see some of the Brewers ‘pen here. The Brewers traded away their two most reliable bullpen arms (Will Smith and Jeremy Jeffress), and they weren’t a good unity to begin with. The Brewers have the tenth worst SIERA in baseball on the season, and that seems likely to be an even lower ranking once the season concludes.

Does anyone remember that chocolate milk stuff called Ovaltine? I remember seeing commercials as a kid with the tag line of “More Ovaltine Please.” Dillon Overton (Not Ovaltine, but it was close enough to lead me down that pointless rabbit trail) has not left anyone wanting more, other than opposing lineups. In his four starts on the season, Overton has allowed 19 earned runs across 18 plus innings. Yikes. The A’s bullpen has been just about league average this season, but they will be facing the Cubs tonight. I expect to see some long relief from Oakland, and I expect the Cubbies to take advantage.

My Top Bullpen 5 Bullpen Situations To Attack
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Oakland Athletics
3. Milwaukee Brewers
4. Miami Marlins
5. Texas Rangers

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Tigers recalled Blaine Hardy from AAA. Hardy should be a lefty specialist for the big club.

The Mariners called up Blake Parker from AAA. The Mariners will likely use him in middle relief. He has thrown well in the lower levels this season.

The Dodgers recalled lefty Grant Dayton from AAA. He should be a lefty specialist.

3. Other Notes and insights that I find along the way.

The Blue Jays bullpen has the most innings pitched on the season, and they’ve paired that with only the 13th highest amount of strikeouts.

The Yankees bullpen has the fifth fewest innings pitched combined with the fifth most strikeouts among bullpens.

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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