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MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 31st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-08-31 20:26:04

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Philadelphia
cubsmlb Jose Quintana philadelphiamlb Nick Pivetta
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-111 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.279 0.277 25.5% 0.83 21.8% 55.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.354 0.353 37.1% 1.66 27.0% 40.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.367 36.6% 1.50 19.4% 39.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.296 0.268 31.7% 1.06 29.2% 47.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Quintana
jose-quintana-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 3.80 4.15 26.2% 7.7% 44.8% 32.6% 18.2% 92.1 8.5%
2018 25 4.69 4.33 20.0% 10.3% 43.1% 34.0% 15.9% 91.4 7.5%
L14 2 5.53 2.70 13.6% 11.4% 46.9% 9.1% 12.1% 91.2 8.2%

We have a massive 15-game slate on tap tonight and plenty of tournaments across the industry. Mistakes were made last night when it comes to pitching, but we live and we learn. Quintana hasn’t been in great form this season and has been in even worse form recently. The Phillies weren’t great against left-handed pitching early in the year, but the additions of Asdrubal Cabrera and Wilson Ramos have certainly helped. In this ballpark, Quintana offers more risk than upside.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Quintana in all formats.

Nick Pivetta
nicholas-pivetta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $7,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 26 4.32 6.02 24.0% 9.8% 43.8% 35.5% 15.9% 94.4 8.7%
2018 26 3.33 4.76 28.2% 6.6% 44.3% 34.2% 16.8% 94.8 11.7%
L14 2 4.58 9.58 18.8% 8.3% 38.2% 34.3% 17.1% 95.0 6.9%

Pivetta hasn’t been in great form recently and a season-long ERA of 4.76 isn’t very appealing, but his advanced statistics suggest some positive regression. In 26 starts, he owns a 3.33 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of only 7%. He’s been productive at home (16 fantasy points per start), but draws a difficult matchup against the Cubs. While they do strikeout at a fairly high rate, their projected lineup boasts an average xwOBA of .335 with an ISO of .180 against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Pivetta is an easy fade given the matchup and the size of the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Philadelphia and they draw an easy matchup to break down. Nick Pivetta has been tough on right-handed hitters (.268 xwOBA on a 47% ground ball rate), but he has given up a .353 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to lefties. Daniel Murphy (.398 xwOBA against righties) and Anthony Rizzo (.410 xwOBA against righties) are both on my radar as low-owned tournament plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.398 0.193 27.8% 6.9% 6.3% 33.8% 2B $3,900 1B/2B $4,300 N/A N/A
2 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.339 0.275 36.6% 3.3% 26.0% 46.3% SS $4,000 2B/SS $5,300 N/A N/A
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.410 0.233 36.4% 12.0% 9.8% 37.4% 1B $4,400 1B $5,200 N/A N/A
4 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.356 0.140 30.1% 11.1% 20.1% 39.2% 3B $4,000 3B $4,500 N/A N/A
5 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.365 0.179 35.5% 13.1% 13.4% 44.2% OF $2,800 2B/OF $4,400 N/A N/A
6 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.298 0.138 29.4% 7.3% 21.2% 52.0% C $2,900 C $3,800 N/A N/A
7 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.375 0.270 42.1% 14.7% 25.3% 40.6% OF $3,300 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
8 Jose Quintana LEFT 0.114 0.000 13.6% 0.0% 37.1% 82.4% P $7,700 P $7,500 N/A N/A
9 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.359 0.190 41.8% 17.0% 35.1% 36.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.335 0.180 32.6% 9.5% 21.6% 45.8%

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy (GPP), Anthony Rizzo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy (Cash), Anthony Rizzo (Cash), Ben Zobrist

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies should fly under the radar tonight. Jose Quintana has been an underrated pitcher for years, but we’ve actually gotten to the point where he might be overrated at this point. He hasn’t had a good season and has certainly been a hittable pitcher for righties. On the season, Quintana has allowed a .367 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to batters from the right side. Roman Quinn, Rhys Hoskins, Wilson Ramos, and Carlos Santana are all viable in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Roman Quinn SWITCH 0.248 0.294 14.3% 0.0% 17.6% 42.9% OF $2,600 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.362 0.147 26.7% 21.3% 17.3% 28.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,500 N/A N/A
3 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.338 0.062 29.4% 14.0% 18.0% 54.6% 2B $2,900 2B $4,000 N/A N/A
4 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.420 0.263 44.2% 4.0% 19.0% 46.8% C $3,200 C $4,800 N/A N/A
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.360 0.200 34.8% 11.5% 10.1% 46.1% 1B $3,200 1B $4,200 N/A N/A
6 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.312 0.110 35.3% 5.2% 18.1% 49.1% SS $2,700 2B/SS $3,900 N/A N/A
7 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.350 0.185 40.7% 20.0% 25.7% 38.9% OF $3,000 3B/OF $3,600 N/A N/A
8 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.355 0.153 34.5% 9.1% 11.8% 40.2% 3B $3,100 3B $3,900 N/A N/A
9 Nick Pivetta RIGHT 0.065 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 80.0% P $8,000 P $7,900 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.312 0.157 28.9% 9.5% 19.0% 47.4%

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins (GPP), Wilson Ramos (DK GPP)

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins (Cash), Wilson Ramos (DK Cash), Roman Quinn, Carlos Santana

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Detroit NY Yankees
detroitmlb Jordan Zimmermann nyyankeesmlb Luis Severino
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-340 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.328 0.323 34.1% 1.49 20.3% 36.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.313 34.3% 0.65 29.4% 40.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.337 0.325 39.4% 1.75 20.9% 32.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.280 0.309 32.2% 1.22 27.3% 40.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jordan Zimmermann
jordan-zimmermann-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 29 5.22 6.08 14.5% 6.2% 33.2% 39.5% 13.4% 92.2 8.1%
2018 19 4.04 4.38 20.6% 4.0% 34.4% 36.7% 17.4% 91.2 9.5%
L14 3 3.99 6.35 18.4% 1.3% 36.7% 46.7% 10.0% 91.3 9.5%

Zimmermann got off to a hot start this season. We got to a point where I was seriously considering a different picture for him. However, after his play over the last month or two, the crying emoji feels right. Zimmermann is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact and he draws a difficult matchup against the Yankees, who lead the majors in home runs this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Zimmermann in all formats.

Luis Severino
luis-severino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,600 Salary: $11,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 31 3.25 2.98 29.4% 6.5% 50.6% 28.5% 19.4% 97.6 13.0%
2018 27 3.28 3.27 28.2% 6.1% 40.9% 33.0% 19.5% 97.7 12.2%
L14 2 2.97 3.38 34.8% 8.7% 24.0% 30.8% 15.4% 97.8 11.6%

Severino has been rock-solid all season, posting a 3.28 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 6%. He has a great fastball, a high swinging strike rate, and he draws one of the best matchups on the board. The Tigers’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .306 with a strikeout rate of 23% against right-handed pitching. We have to like Severino’s chances of picking up the win tonight as a -340 favorite.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is one of the top pitchers on the board and an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers are playing in a home run-friendly ballpark (you know it’s a good ballpark for home runs when Victor Martinez hits two of them in the same game), but they draw one of the worst matchups of the slate. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, Luis Severino has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. With 15 games on the schedule, the Tigers should be avoided in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.290 0.166 34.2% 11.5% 24.7% 38.6% 3B $2,900 3B $3,600 N/A N/A
2 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.308 0.144 37.5% 4.9% 17.5% 43.0% OF $2,500 1B $3,300 N/A N/A
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.383 0.191 48.1% 6.2% 23.4% 34.9% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.336 0.084 37.9% 7.1% 8.9% 39.5% C $2,300 1B $2,900 N/A N/A
5 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.318 0.220 39.0% 8.7% 29.3% 40.1% 2B $2,600 2B/OF $3,300 N/A N/A
6 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.290 0.150 25.3% 7.4% 28.1% 41.9% OF $2,400 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.282 0.087 38.9% 5.6% 23.9% 40.1% C $2,000 C $2,600 N/A N/A
8 Ronny Rodriguez RIGHT 0.258 0.066 32.8% 7.2% 22.9% 50.0% SS $2,300 2B/3B $2,900 N/A N/A
9 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.288 0.172 29.7% 4.7% 31.5% 40.7% OF $2,000 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.306 0.142 35.9% 7.0% 23.4% 41.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

The Yankees are one of the top stacking options of the slate. Is it just me, or do they seem to have a more favorable matchup every single slate? I suppose Jordan Zimmermann isn’t quite as bad as Francisco Liriano, but they are certainly two very hittable pitchers. In addition to having a high fly-ball rate and a high hard contact rate, Zimmermann has allowed a .320+ xwOBA and a 34%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters. I always love playing Giancarlo Stanton against low-strikeout pitchers with high fly-ball rates and will be continuing that tradition tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.295 0.145 25.6% 11.6% 14.9% 49.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.327 0.214 37.1% 8.6% 31.5% 48.0% OF $4,500 OF $5,000 N/A N/A
3 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.375 0.199 38.5% 15.9% 19.2% 43.7% OF $4,400 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
4 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.363 0.229 37.5% 3.7% 16.4% 47.1% 3B $4,100 3B $4,600 N/A N/A
5 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.368 0.143 40.1% 10.6% 21.1% 35.4% 2B $3,200 1B/2B $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.356 0.202 35.4% 8.6% 24.7% 32.2% SS $3,900 2B $4,200 N/A N/A
7 Greg Bird LEFT 0.309 0.186 39.6% 8.9% 25.8% 32.9% 1B $2,900 1B $3,700 N/A N/A
8 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.329 0.182 36.4% 8.0% 23.0% 47.4% C $2,400 C $3,300 N/A N/A
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.287 0.078 20.0% 1.5% 13.8% 41.8% 2B $2,200 2B/SS $2,800 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.334 0.175 34.5% 8.6% 21.2% 42.0%

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Neil Walker

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Miguel Andujar, Gleyber Torres, Austin Romine (DK)

Stackability – GREEN

Milwaukee at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Milwaukee Washington
milwaukeemlb Jhoulys Chacin washingtonmlb Tanner Roark
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-109 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.336 0.358 39.1% 0.86 15.4% 43.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.314 0.310 24.9% 1.05 22.8% 37.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.249 0.294 34.8% 0.76 23.9% 42.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.298 0.338 30.3% 0.99 17.5% 46.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jhoulys Chacin
jhoulys-chacin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,100 Salary:
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 4.63 3.89 20.0% 9.4% 49.1% 28.5% 20.2% 91.4 7.9%
2018 28 4.56 3.61 19.6% 9.0% 43.1% 37.0% 17.4% 89.9 8.5%
L14 2 4.48 2.25 19.2% 7.7% 45.7% 35.1% 13.5% 90.5 10.4%

Chacin has had some solid fantasy outings this season, but his numbers are mediocre as a whole — 4.56 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 20%. Like many average right-handed pitchers, he needs to be facing a right-handed heavy offense to warrant consideration. That’s not the case tonight against the Nationals, who are projected to have four left-handed hitters in their lineup tonight.

Quick Breakdown: As a large underdog on the road, Chacin is an easy fade in all formats.

Tanner Roark
tanner-roark-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $8,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 30 4.31 4.67 21.4% 8.3% 48.2% 27.8% 16.7% 92.2 10.1%
2018 26 4.32 3.95 20.1% 7.2% 41.8% 27.8% 18.7% 91.4 8.8%
L14 3 4.87 2.40 15.8% 5.3% 34.1% 33.3% 22.2% 91.5 7.9%

Roark is the box of chocolates of DFS pitchers — we never quite know which one we are going to get. In 26 starts, he has a 4.32 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. While those numbers are average at best, they don’t show how many big fantasy outings he’s had this year (or how many blow-ups). Even though there are some strikeouts in the Brewers’ lineup, they have plenty of firepower from both sides of the plate. I’ll wait for a better matchup for Roark.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Roark in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers have an exploitable matchup against Tanner Roark, but they are facing him on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. We should also note that this is a 15-game slate. We can certainly find better matchups and better ballparks to target tonight. If you have to play someone from the Brewers, give an edge to those that bat from the right side. Roark has some serious reverse-splits this season — .338 xwOBA allowed to righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.330 0.095 35.9% 11.9% 17.2% 61.1% OF $3,900 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
2 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.405 0.242 48.4% 9.5% 24.1% 52.9% OF $4,800 OF $5,800 N/A N/A
3 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.384 0.275 45.2% 9.6% 27.0% 32.2% 1B $4,100 1B $4,300 N/A N/A
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.395 0.285 41.0% 12.6% 16.6% 33.3% 2B $3,800 2B/3B $4,200 N/A N/A
5 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.328 0.170 34.1% 4.6% 21.8% 48.5% OF $3,100 1B/OF $4,000 N/A N/A
6 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.366 0.239 44.9% 9.3% 17.0% 30.8% 3B $4,000 3B $4,300 N/A N/A
7 Erik Kratz RIGHT 0.291 0.101 49.4% 1.7% 18.1% 44.3% C $2,500 C $3,000 N/A N/A
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.234 0.070 27.5% 3.6% 29.3% 55.1% SS $2,000 SS $2,700 N/A N/A
9 Jhoulys Chacin RIGHT 0.164 0.000 22.6% 4.5% 25.0% 65.4% P $8,200 P $8,100 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.322 0.164 38.8% 7.5% 21.8% 47.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The Nationals are the offense to target in this game. Jhoulys Chacin is a mediocre pitcher that has historically struggled against left-handed hitters. This season has been no different, as he has allowed a .358 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate. Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, and Juan Soto all bat from the left side and all boast a .365+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching. Matt Wieters has been swinging a hot bat and is worth a look on DraftKings ($3,300).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.367 0.124 36.8% 9.2% 15.9% 44.6% OF $3,300 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.313 0.134 30.1% 7.9% 19.9% 51.8% SS $3,400 SS $4,600 N/A N/A
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.392 0.274 42.4% 16.8% 25.0% 36.7% OF $4,300 OF $4,900 N/A N/A
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.380 0.194 36.4% 8.0% 13.7% 36.5% 3B $3,000 3B $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.372 0.200 34.7% 18.7% 19.1% 51.8% OF $3,800 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
6 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.386 0.230 42.0% 6.1% 20.0% 47.9% 1B $3,400 1B $4,200 N/A N/A
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.302 0.142 32.8% 7.3% 13.9% 39.4% C $2,100 C $3,300 N/A N/A
8 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.292 0.131 22.3% 7.5% 16.5% 41.7% 2B $2,400 2B/3B $3,500 N/A N/A
9 Tanner Roark RIGHT 0.183 0.088 16.0% 0.0% 27.8% 83.3% P $8,600 P $8,500 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.332 0.169 32.6% 9.1% 19.1% 48.2%

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton (GPP), Bryce Harper (GPP), Juan Soto (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton (Cash), Bryce Harper (Cash), Juan Soto (Cash), Trea Turner, Matt Wieters (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Tampa Bay Cleveland
tampabaymlb Tyler Glasnow clevelandmlb Corey Kluber
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-220 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.313 0.310 20.9% 1.02 30.1% 51.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.274 0.289 36.5% 1.34 27.1% 42.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.278 0.304 34.0% 0.82 32.0% 50.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.265 0.305 36.0% 0.87 22.3% 46.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Glasnow
tyler-glasnow-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $8,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 13 5.62 7.69 18.4% 14.4% 43.2% 31.5% 20.2% 94.6 8.3%
2018 5 3.50 4.18 31.1% 12.9% 50.5% 28.0% 14.0% 96.7 11.8%
L14 2 4.50 5.40 25.0% 12.5% 33.3% 30.0% 20.0% 96.3 9.0%

The Rays have found a diamond in the rough in Glasnow. He was once a top pitching prospect with the Pirates, but could never fix his control issues. The Rays have a knack of getting the most out of their pitchers and that has certainly been the case with Glasnow. Unfortunately, he draws one of the worst matchups on the board. The Indians’ projected lineup boasts an average xwOBA of .362 with a strikeout rate of only 17% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Keep an eye on Glasnow, but avoid him tonight against the Indians.

Corey Kluber
corey-kluber-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,500 Salary: $10,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 29 2.68 2.25 34.1% 4.6% 44.5% 28.9% 24.4% 92.6 15.6%
2018 27 3.35 2.91 24.6% 3.6% 44.7% 36.2% 15.6% 92.1 10.9%
L14 2 3.76 6.17 22.6% 5.7% 40.5% 36.8% 13.2% 92.2 13.8%

Kluber has had another solid season, although he hasn’t quite been as elite as he was in 2017. His strikeout rate is down nearly 7% and he has allowed more hard contact. With that said, he still owns a 3.35 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. He has a chance to improve his numbers tonight in a matchup against the Rays, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .316 with a strikeout rate of 24% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: We see a nice discount on Kluber and he draws one of the best matchups on the board. He’s viable in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays see a positive ballpark shift playing in Cleveland, but that is negated by their matchup against Corey Kluber. In addition to his above-average strikeout rate and his elite control, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA this season. If you like targeting bad offenses against elite pitchers, be my guest and stack the Rays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.325 0.131 35.2% 5.8% 18.7% 47.2% 2B $3,000 2B $4,100 N/A N/A
2 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.316 0.078 30.1% 6.3% 15.8% 52.6% 3B $2,700 3B $3,900 N/A N/A
3 Ji-Man Choi LEFT 0.386 0.232 45.6% 10.3% 27.0% 41.0% 1B $2,600 1B $3,800 N/A N/A
4 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.351 0.164 47.7% 9.4% 26.0% 51.2% OF $2,900 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
5 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.345 0.199 43.8% 14.5% 26.4% 44.1% 1B $2,300 1B/OF $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.269 0.115 32.6% 7.1% 23.6% 50.7% OF $2,200 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
7 Willy Adames RIGHT 0.291 0.152 29.4% 8.6% 27.8% 47.0% SS $3,100 SS $3,900 N/A N/A
8 Brandon Lowe LEFT 0.281 0.098 32.1% 16.0% 26.0% 53.6% OF $2,500 2B/OF $3,000 N/A N/A
9 Michael Perez LEFT 0.278 0.115 38.0% 3.0% 21.2% 36.7% C $2,100 C $2,900 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.316 0.143 37.2% 9.0% 23.6% 47.1%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians could be a sneaky stack, at least I’m hoping that they are sneaky. The two issues for Tyler Glasnow throughout his career have been walks and stolen bases. The Indians draw plenty of walks, they have speed at the top of their lineup, and they absolutely mash right-handed pitching. They are also playing in a ballpark that favors left-handed power. If we get Cleveland at low ownership, stack this offense in tournaments. Each of the first five hitters in their projected lineup has a .375+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.393 0.254 42.3% 9.3% 16.3% 36.1% SS $4,700 SS $5,200 N/A N/A
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.405 0.183 42.6% 9.0% 8.0% 43.3% OF $4,100 OF $4,700 N/A N/A
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.414 0.354 39.1% 17.8% 11.5% 31.6% 3B $4,900 3B $5,300 N/A N/A
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.382 0.262 42.9% 8.3% 23.1% 39.1% 1B $4,200 1B $4,700 N/A N/A
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.377 0.212 38.1% 9.1% 19.8% 37.5% 1B $3,500 1B $4,200 N/A N/A
6 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.342 0.153 38.2% 8.5% 12.8% 47.3% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
7 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.348 0.133 38.0% 10.4% 17.6% 35.9% 2B $3,300 2B $4,000 N/A N/A
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.308 0.154 42.8% 4.2% 27.4% 33.5% C $2,800 C $3,600 N/A N/A
9 Greg Allen SWITCH 0.292 0.092 38.8% 4.3% 16.0% 46.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.362 0.200 40.3% 9.0% 16.9% 38.9%

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Michael Brantley (Cash), Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso, Yan Gomes (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Toronto Miami
torontomlb Aaron Sanchez miamimlb Dan Straily
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA-101 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.400 0.366 31.7% 0.78 15.4% 52.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.357 0.368 45.0% 1.43 19.3% 32.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.279 0.370 34.6% 0.92 20.6% 47.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.364 45.8% 1.70 19.3% 34.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Sanchez
aaron-sanchez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,100 Salary:
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 8 5.62 4.25 14.4% 12.0% 47.5% 29.5% 21.3% 94.9 5.6%
2018 16 5.09 4.95 18.1% 12.3% 49.6% 33.2% 21.6% 93.8 10.0%
L14 1 5.77 13.50 8.7% 8.7% 42.1% 42.1% 26.3% 93.8 8.1%

Sanchez is making his second start since June after being placed on the DL with a finger injury. He threw 86 pitches in his first start back and gave up six runs in only four innings of work. He hasn’t been a good DFS play for a few years now, as we’ve seen a steep decline in his strikeout rate. Even though a matchup against the Marlins is appealing and even though he gets to face the opposing pitcher in the lineup, I can’t justify the play in a 15-game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid the temptation and fade Sanchez in all formats.

Dan Straily
dan-straily-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $7,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 4.43 4.26 22.1% 7.8% 34.2% 32.6% 19.1% 90.3 12.2%
2018 21 4.95 4.35 19.3% 10.8% 33.3% 45.3% 14.9% 90.4 9.9%
L14 2 5.19 3.75 12.5% 2.1% 29.7% 50.0% 20.0% 90.5 7.0%

Straily doesn’t offer much in terms of safety and his numbers on the season are less than impressive — 4.95 SIERA with a 20% strikeout rate and an 11% walk rate. With that said, he typically pitches deep into games and he sees a big boost whenever he plays at home. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, which is somewhat negated by this big ballpark. I wish he was a little cheaper on DraftKings ($7,500). If so, I would have had interest in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Straily is a bit too pricey for my liking.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays have a lot working against them tonight. They are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they don’t get to use the DH in this series. That’s a tough combination to overcome, even though they draw a favorable matchup against Dan Straily. If this game was being played in Toronto, I’d be all aboard the Blue Jays’ stack. Instead, I will be chasing their home run upside through one-offs. On the season, Straily has allowed a .360+ xwOBA and a 45%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy McKinney LEFT 0.481 0.414 57.1% 14.3% 22.9% 33.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
2 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.349 0.186 30.2% 2.6% 23.1% 39.5% 2B $2,500 2B/SS $3,900 N/A N/A
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.399 0.241 39.0% 16.0% 26.6% 32.5% 1B $3,600 1B $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.349 0.270 34.5% 6.1% 22.7% 36.8% OF $3,300 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.336 0.167 33.6% 3.8% 19.6% 35.8% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
6 Danny Jansen RIGHT 0.300 0.241 25.9% 5.9% 8.8% 29.6% C $2,500 C $3,400 N/A N/A
7 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.350 0.186 33.9% 3.4% 12.8% 41.6% SS $3,000 SS $3,600 N/A N/A
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.311 0.115 30.4% 5.5% 20.9% 54.8% 2B $2,700 2B $3,400 N/A N/A
9 Aaron Sanchez RIGHT P $7,000 P $6,100 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.359 0.228 35.6% 7.2% 19.7% 38.0%

Elite Plays – Billy McKinney (GPP), Justin Smoak (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Billy McKinney (Cash), Justin Smoak (Cash), Lourdes Gurriel, Randal Grichuk

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami

The Marlins draw a favorable matchup against Aaron Sanchez, who has allowed a .365+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. The problem is that they are still the Marlins. Even though they lack talent, I have more faith in their offense than I do in Sanchez. J.T. Realmuto, Brian Anderson, and Derek Dietrich have all fared well against right-handed pitching this season and should garner little to no ownership.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rafael Ortega LEFT 0.325 0.056 35.4% 8.5% 10.2% 46.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
2 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.371 0.215 39.4% 6.8% 17.8% 41.9% C $3,500 C $4,900 N/A N/A
3 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.349 0.117 38.5% 7.2% 17.5% 53.6% 3B $3,200 3B/OF $4,200 N/A N/A
4 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.325 0.153 37.0% 6.4% 23.5% 39.7% OF $2,900 1B/OF $4,100 N/A N/A
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.326 0.126 36.9% 6.7% 18.8% 49.8% 2B $3,100 2B $4,200 N/A N/A
6 JT Riddle LEFT 0.311 0.167 33.1% 6.9% 19.8% 47.9% SS $2,300 SS $4,000 N/A N/A
7 Austin Dean RIGHT 0.381 0.200 47.8% 3.2% 22.6% 43.5% OF $3,000 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
8 Magneuris Sierra LEFT 0.158 0.014 20.0% 0.0% 25.7% 58.7% OF $2,000 OF $3,200 N/A N/A
9 Dan Straily RIGHT 0.207 0.050 42.9% 20.0% 52.0% 50.0% P $6,500 P $7,200 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.306 0.122 36.8% 7.3% 23.1% 48.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – J.T. Realmuto, Brian Anderson, Derek Dietrich

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious