MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 26th
Jump to Page 1 2 3
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
San Diego at Washington – 7:05 PM ET
San Diego | Washington | ||||||||||||||
Luis Perdomo | Max Scherzer | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
WAS-260 | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.383 | 0.381 | 39.5% | 6.7% | 14.6% | 51.7% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.323 | 0.296 | 29.6% | 9.0% | 25.0% | 32.4% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.334 | 0.287 | 27.1% | 7.1% | 19.1% | 69.2% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.208 | 0.230 | 29.3% | 3.5% | 38.8% | 33.8% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Luis Perdomo | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,800 | Salary: | $5,200 | Salary: | $10,200 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 22 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 25 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 27 of 29 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 20 | 4.04 | 5.71 | 15.9% | 7.0% | 59.0% | 34.0% | 16.7% | |
2017 | 7 | 3.03 | 5.79 | 22.0% | 6.7% | 69.0% | 28.3% | 14.2% |
It’s still early, but it looks like we could have a clean slate in terms of the weather. The only potential issue right now is in Chicago and it just so happens that they have a double-header planned. With very few slates including the one early game, we will only cover the second game in the double-header since it is the only one included in the main slate.
Perdomo was trending in the right direction before getting shelled by the Diamondbacks in his last start. He continues to have a high ERA, but there are encouraging signs. In seven starts, he owns a 3.03 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a ground ball rate of 69%. He has limited hard contact against him this season and can usually stay out of trouble when he can keep the ball on the ground. We obviously don’t want to target him in a road start against the Nationals, but Washington’s offense may not be in the best position either.
Quick Breakdown: I am a Perdomo truther, but he is the largest underdog in the slate and can be avoided in all formats.
Max Scherzer | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $11,800 | Salary: | $12,700 | Salary: | $24,800 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 1 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 1 of 29 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 34 | 3.05 | 2.96 | 31.5% | 6.2% | 33.0% | 30.1% | 22.2% | |
2017 | 9 | 2.99 | 3.02 | 32.2% | 6.8% | 33.1% | 27.0% | 19.9% |
The next largest spread in this slate is the Indians at -170 over the Royals. Scherzer and the Nationals are -260 favorites, so if you are chasing a win from your pitcher, this is obviously a good place to start. This is also a good place for strikeout upside, as Scherzer boasts a 32% strikeout rate and the Padres have the second highest strikeout rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season. Scherzer is the most talented pitcher in the slate and he arguably has the best matchup as well. He costs an arm and a leg, but it’s typically easier to find value in a 15 game slate than it is in a five game slate, so we can lock and load Scherzer as an elite play in all formats tonight. There is obviously some merit to fading highly-owned arms in tournaments, but let me ask you a question – do you want to be cheering for the Padres’ offense to scrape out a run or two or do you want to cheer Scherzer on while he’s potentially going for the complete game?
Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is by far the best pitching option in the slate. The next three most talented pitchers (deGrom, Archer, and Arrieta) are all playing on the road.
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
The Padres have the lowest implied run total in the slate. They are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they are facing Max Scherzer, who owns a 2.99 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 32%. The Padres don’t hit right-handed pitching well and they strikeout at a high rate. This is a matchup made in heaven for Scherzer.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Yangervis Solarte | SWITCH | 0.342 | 0.315 | 0.171 | 31.5% | 7.7% | 13.1% | 40.9% | 3B | $2,500 | 2B | $2,800 | 2B | $5,600 |
2 | Cory Spangenberg | LEFT | 0.239 | 0.233 | 0.047 | 23.3% | 3.5% | 20.4% | 53.7% | 2B | $2,300 | 3B/OF | $2,500 | 2B | $4,800 |
3 | Wil Myers | RIGHT | 0.348 | 0.327 | 0.223 | 34.9% | 8.8% | 23.9% | 43.5% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $3,500 | IF/OF | $6,900 |
4 | Ryan Schimpf | LEFT | 0.357 | 0.344 | 0.299 | 35.1% | 14.7% | 30.7% | 19.0% | 2B | $2,500 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $6,400 |
5 | Hunter Renfroe | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.286 | 0.231 | 34.3% | 3.7% | 29.6% | 38.0% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,100 | RF | $6,000 |
6 | Austin Hedges | RIGHT | 0.274 | 0.277 | 0.205 | 34.6% | 6.2% | 30.0% | 43.0% | C | $2,300 | C | $2,300 | C | $4,500 |
7 | Matt Szczur | RIGHT | 0.335 | 0.317 | 0.138 | 24.0% | 8.6% | 14.1% | 38.7% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $2,600 | LF | $5,200 |
8 | Erick Aybar | SWITCH | 0.281 | 0.267 | 0.100 | 21.0% | 7.9% | 14.5% | 50.9% | SS | $2,200 | SS | $2,100 | SS | $4,200 |
9 | Luis Perdomo | RIGHT | 0.195 | 0.152 | 0.114 | 13.6% | 2.6% | 38.5% | 44.4% | P | $6,800 | P | $5,200 | P | $10,200 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Washington
The Nationals have one of the most explosive offenses in baseball, but I will have zero exposure to the right-handed hitters in this lineup. As a Trea Turner fanboy, this hurts, but Luis Perdomo has a 69% ground ball rate against righties. He has also held them to a .287 wOBA and a 27% hard contact rate. If you are targeting the Nationals tonight, make sure they hit from the left side of the plate. Perdomo has allowed a massive .381 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to lefties, which plays right into the hands of Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy, both of which are fly-ball hitters (negates the effectiveness of Perdomo’s high ground ball rate).
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Trea Turner | RIGHT | 0.378 | 0.338 | 0.237 | 32.8% | 4.4% | 19.0% | 43.3% | SS | $3,800 | SS | $5,000 | IF/OF | $9,900 |
2 | Jayson Werth | RIGHT | 0.310 | 0.320 | 0.146 | 32.0% | 11.4% | 24.0% | 42.4% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $3,700 | LF | $7,200 |
3 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.380 | 0.396 | 0.240 | 35.4% | 18.6% | 15.7% | 39.4% | OF | $4,600 | OF | $5,300 | RF | $10,400 |
4 | Ryan Zimmerman | RIGHT | 0.323 | 0.336 | 0.187 | 35.6% | 5.5% | 23.2% | 45.8% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $4,600 | 1B | $8,800 |
5 | Daniel Murphy | LEFT | 0.411 | 0.398 | 0.253 | 38.9% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 35.3% | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $4,900 | 2B | $9,600 |
6 | Anthony Rendon | RIGHT | 0.344 | 0.347 | 0.191 | 35.3% | 9.3% | 18.3% | 37.4% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $4,500 | 3B | $8,700 |
7 | Matt Wieters | SWITCH | 0.311 | 0.322 | 0.164 | 33.1% | 6.9% | 17.9% | 36.2% | C | $2,700 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,400 |
8 | Michael Taylor | RIGHT | 0.271 | 0.265 | 0.133 | 30.7% | 5.4% | 31.0% | 44.3% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,500 | CF | $6,900 |
9 | Max Scherzer | RIGHT | 0.182 | 0.160 | 0.013 | 23.0% | 2.2% | 30.0% | 75.0% | P | $11,800 | P | $12,700 | P | $24,800 |
Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy
Secondary Plays – Matt Wieters
Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW
Cincinnati at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET
Cincinnati | Philadelphia | ||||||||||||||
Tim Adleman | Aaron Nola | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
PHI-130 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.349 | 0.327 | 31.9% | 8.9% | 19.3% | 26.5% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.313 | 0.310 | 29.2% | 9.2% | 20.9% | 54.8% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.337 | 0.343 | 37.9% | 6.4% | 17.0% | 43.6% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.300 | 0.270 | 27.1% | 3.7% | 27.6% | 55.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Tim Adleman | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $13,600 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 26 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 29 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 13 | 4.87 | 4.00 | 16.4% | 7.0% | 36.4% | 35.4% | 14.0% | |
2017 | 6 | 4.32 | 6.19 | 21.4% | 8.6% | 35.8% | 35.1% | 12.4% |
Adleman may not be as most as many think he is, but a 4.32 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a hard contact rate of 35% isn’t anything to get excited about. With that said, Adleman is cheap across the industry and we have been streaming pitchers against the Phillies with success for a while now. On the season, Philadelphia is ranked 22nd in both team wOBA and team k-rate against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Adleman is obviously too risky to use in a cash game format, but it’s not the craziest idea in tournaments.
Aaron Nola | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $7,700 | Salary: | $15,300 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 10 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 29 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 20 | 3.29 | 4.78 | 25.1% | 6.0% | 55.2% | 28.8% | 23.2% | |
2017 | 4 | 3.97 | 3.52 | 20.8% | 8.3% | 53.7% | 25.4% | 26.9% |
Nola is making his first start of the season and second since coming off of the DL with a back injury. He showed no signs of rust against the Pirates, striking out five hitters in seven innings of work on 89 pitches. Nola is a talented young pitcher that has shown strikeout upside in the majors (25% k-rate last season). He also has an above-average ground ball rate, which allows him to induce an elite soft contact rate. I typically like to wait a few starts before targeting a pitcher that is coming off of an injury, but Nola is cheap and draws a nice matchup against the Reds, who struggle against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: At this price point, Nola is viable in tournaments and potentially as an SP2 in cash games.
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
There isn’t a lot to like on the Reds’ side of the ball tonight. Aaron Nola has an elite ground ball rate against both left and right-handed hitters and has held both under a 30% hard contact rate. The one batter in this lineup that I don’t mind making an exception for is Joey Votto, who has a massive .442 xwOBA and a 41% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. There are very few hitters in baseball with a higher walk rate (18%) than strikeout rate (15%) against righties.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Billy Hamilton | SWITCH | 0.310 | 0.261 | 0.085 | 19.8% | 9.1% | 19.4% | 45.8% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $5,100 | CF | $9,900 |
2 | Zack Cozart | RIGHT | 0.336 | 0.303 | 0.171 | 30.2% | 9.2% | 16.6% | 38.6% | SS | $3,400 | SS | $4,200 | SS | $8,100 |
3 | Joey Votto | LEFT | 0.426 | 0.442 | 0.258 | 40.7% | 17.7% | 14.6% | 37.0% | 1B | $4,500 | 1B | $4,900 | 1B | $9,600 |
4 | Adam Duvall | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.324 | 0.249 | 36.5% | 5.7% | 26.4% | 32.8% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,400 | IF/OF | $8,700 |
5 | Eugenio Suarez | RIGHT | 0.319 | 0.320 | 0.163 | 34.3% | 8.0% | 23.6% | 39.9% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $4,500 | 3B | $8,700 |
6 | Scott Schebler | LEFT | 0.341 | 0.330 | 0.201 | 35.0% | 7.8% | 21.7% | 50.4% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,400 | RF | $8,400 |
7 | Jose Peraza | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.300 | 0.079 | 19.0% | 2.1% | 13.5% | 44.2% | 2B | $2,700 | 2B | $4,100 | 2B | $8,000 |
8 | Devin Mesoraco | RIGHT | 0.258 | 0.309 | 0.103 | 20.8% | 6.8% | 20.3% | 39.6% | C | $2,600 | C | $2,900 | C | $5,600 |
9 | Tim Adleman | RIGHT | 0.062 | 0.086 | 0.050 | 7.7% | 0.0% | 43.5% | 62.5% | P | $6,300 | P | $6,900 | P | $13,600 |
Elite Plays – Joey Votto (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto (Cash)
Stackability – ORANGE
Philadelphia
When I first saw this game on the schedule, I didn’t expect to be more interested in the pitchers than in the offenses, especially in this home run-friendly ballpark. Tim Adleman is not a pitcher that I shy away from in DFS, but I’ve been avoiding this Phillies’ offense for weeks. You could potentially look at Cesar Hernandez or Tommy Joseph here, but it’s not hard to find better options at their respective positions in a 15 game slate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cesar Hernandez | SWITCH | 0.335 | 0.307 | 0.108 | 24.9% | 11.1% | 18.4% | 53.2% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $7,200 |
2 | Freddy Galvis | SWITCH | 0.304 | 0.278 | 0.175 | 28.1% | 5.3% | 21.1% | 39.9% | SS | $2,800 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $6,000 |
3 | Aaron Altherr | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.298 | 0.149 | 32.9% | 10.1% | 31.0% | 51.0% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,100 | LF | $8,000 |
4 | Tommy Joseph | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.325 | 0.203 | 37.5% | 5.3% | 22.5% | 40.6% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $6,800 |
5 | Odubel Herrera | LEFT | 0.332 | 0.305 | 0.147 | 29.1% | 8.7% | 20.7% | 43.9% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,300 | IF/OF | $6,400 |
6 | Maikel Franco | RIGHT | 0.293 | 0.322 | 0.152 | 29.1% | 6.6% | 16.4% | 44.7% | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $7,600 |
7 | Cameron Rupp | RIGHT | 0.300 | 0.316 | 0.168 | 32.6% | 6.5% | 28.3% | 47.3% | C | $2,500 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,300 |
8 | Michael Saunders | LEFT | 0.325 | 0.322 | 0.192 | 37.6% | 10.2% | 26.7% | 38.5% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,500 | RF | $6,800 |
9 | Aaron Nola | RIGHT | 0.115 | 0.145 | 0.032 | 6.3% | 8.3% | 44.4% | 85.7% | P | $8,100 | P | $7,700 | P | $15,300 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Tommy Joseph
Stackability – ORANGE
NY Mets at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET
NY Mets | Pittsburgh | ||||||||||||||
Jacob deGrom | Chad Kuhl | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
NYM-130 | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.272 | 0.291 | 30.5% | 6.7% | 24.9% | 44.1% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.386 | 0.358 | 36.4% | 8.9% | 16.4% | 38.9% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.326 | 0.316 | 34.6% | 7.4% | 27.3% | 46.2% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.295 | 0.286 | 29.4% | 6.6% | 19.1% | 46.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Jacob deGrom | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $11,000 | Salary: | $12,100 | Salary: | $23,600 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 2 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 29 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 24 | 3.66 | 3.04 | 23.7% | 6.0% | 45.6% | 31.3% | 19.0% | |
2017 | 9 | 3.20 | 3.56 | 32.3% | 9.8% | 43.7% | 36.3% | 21.5% |
DeGrom was originally scheduled to pitch last night, but was then pushed back a day. He is one of the few Mets’ players that is having a better year than last season and he’s one of the few that has been able to stay healthy. In nine starts, he has a 3.20 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32%. The high strikeout rate looks like it is sustainable, as he has seen a boost in both velocity and in his swinging strike rate. He would be the ace of the slate if Max Scherzer wasn’t on the mound, but Scherzer clearly has the better matchup and is pitching at home. If you are targeting deGrom here, you are doing it as an ownership pivot off of Scherzer.
Quick Breakdown: DeGrom is an elite play in his own right, but I have a hard time clicking his name over Scherzer’s.
Chad Kuhl | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $13,200 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 26 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 29 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 14 | 4.50 | 4.20 | 17.6% | 6.6% | 44.3% | 33.0% | 19.6% | |
2017 | 9 | 4.76 | 5.85 | 18.3% | 9.4% | 40.0% | 32.0% | 14.8% |
Kuhl had his best start of the season in his last time out, striking out five batters in five scoreless innings against the Phillies. His numbers aren’t very impressive overall and he hasn’t had a strikeout rate over 20% at any level on his way to the majors. He does have a good fastball (95+ MPH) and his swinging strike rate is appealing (11.5%), but I want to see that materialize into a higher strikeout rate before targeting him in DFS.
Quick Breakdown: Kuhl does not fare well against left-handed hitters and this Mets’ lineup is full of them.
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
Even though the Mets are on the road and playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, this is a great matchup for their lineup. Chad Kuhl has really struggled against left-handed hitters in his short career, allowing a .358 xwOBA with a 36% hard contact rate and a 39% ground ball rate. The Mets will have at least six lefties in their lineup tonight. Michael Conforto and Jay Bruce will get most of the attention tonight (deservedly so), but I want to focus on Lucas Duda. He owns a .366 xwOBA (which is 31 points higher than his actual wOBA) and a 36% hard contact rate againt right-handed pitching and is only $2,600 on FanDuel, $3,800 on DraftKings, and $7,600 on FantasyDraft.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Michael Conforto | LEFT | 0.376 | 0.372 | 0.263 | 43.7% | 12.0% | 24.5% | 35.9% | OF | $4,500 | OF | $5,000 | LF | $9,900 |
2 | Jose Reyes | SWITCH | 0.278 | 0.268 | 0.120 | 25.3% | 7.9% | 16.6% | 37.0% | SS | $3,000 | 3B/SS | $4,100 | SS | $8,100 |
3 | Jay Bruce | LEFT | 0.371 | 0.369 | 0.293 | 41.7% | 9.4% | 20.7% | 35.8% | OF | $3,900 | 1B/OF | $4,500 | RF | $8,700 |
4 | Neil Walker | SWITCH | 0.324 | 0.346 | 0.164 | 33.5% | 9.0% | 18.9% | 37.5% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $6,800 |
5 | Lucas Duda | LEFT | 0.335 | 0.366 | 0.190 | 35.5% | 13.4% | 22.3% | 33.3% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $7,600 |
6 | Wilmer Flores | RIGHT | 0.281 | 0.278 | 0.117 | 28.1% | 6.4% | 15.4% | 38.1% | 3B | $3,100 | 1B/3B | $3,500 | 3B | $6,900 |
7 | Curtis Granderson | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.334 | 0.229 | 36.0% | 12.4% | 19.7% | 34.3% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,600 | CF | $7,200 |
8 | Travis d’Arnaud | RIGHT | 0.272 | 0.293 | 0.102 | 32.0% | 6.3% | 17.1% | 49.5% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,300 |
9 | Jacob deGrom | RIGHT | 0.240 | 0.233 | 0.041 | 27.3% | 5.3% | 17.5% | 57.9% | P | $11,000 | P | $12,100 | P | $23,600 |
Elite Plays – Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda
Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Neil Walker
Stackability – YELLOW
Pittsburgh
When it comes to targeting hitters against elite pitchers, I don’t do it unless we have such a small slate that I don’t really have a choice. In a 15 game slate, there is no reason to give the Pirates’ hitters serious consideration. Jacob deGrom has an elite strikeout rate and is tough on both left and right-handed hitters.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Adam Frazier | LEFT | 0.362 | 0.354 | 0.153 | 32.7% | 9.7% | 15.0% | 42.9% | OF | $3,700 | 2B/OF | $4,400 | IF/OF | $8,700 |
2 | Josh Harrison | RIGHT | 0.302 | 0.277 | 0.101 | 27.0% | 4.0% | 14.6% | 43.1% | 3B | $3,100 | 2B/3B | $3,900 | 2B | $7,800 |
3 | Andrew McCutchen | RIGHT | 0.306 | 0.328 | 0.152 | 34.2% | 9.1% | 21.3% | 37.6% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,100 | RF | $6,000 |
4 | Gregory Polanco | LEFT | 0.330 | 0.346 | 0.192 | 34.0% | 9.4% | 16.5% | 39.8% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,200 | RF | $8,100 |
5 | Josh Bell | SWITCH | 0.349 | 0.354 | 0.183 | 31.0% | 12.7% | 16.2% | 51.6% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $3,700 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
6 | John Jaso | LEFT | 0.340 | 0.337 | 0.159 | 31.3% | 10.7% | 17.2% | 47.4% | 1B | $2,700 | 1B/OF | $2,900 | 1B | $5,700 |
7 | Francisco Cervelli | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.322 | 0.096 | 28.4% | 12.6% | 19.0% | 52.7% | C | $3,000 | C | $3,100 | C | $6,000 |
8 | Jordy Mercer | RIGHT | 0.296 | 0.298 | 0.100 | 25.1% | 8.8% | 14.0% | 50.2% | SS | $2,800 | SS | $3,700 | SS | $7,200 |
9 | Chad Kuhl | RIGHT | 0.078 | 0.163 | 0.000 | 26.3% | 6.7% | 30.0% | 75.0% | P | $6,300 | P | $6,600 | P | $13,200 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Oakland at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET
Oakland | NY Yankees | ||||||||||||||
Sean Manaea | Masahiro Tanaka | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
NYY-157 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.220 | 0.269 | 28.7% | 5.1% | 24.6% | 57.6% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.294 | 0.301 | 32.0% | 4.1% | 19.7% | 51.6% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.320 | 0.334 | 34.6% | 7.8% | 21.0% | 43.5% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.313 | 0.316 | 33.0% | 5.8% | 20.1% | 45.6% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Sean Manaea | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | $15,600 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 18 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 29 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 24 | 4.04 | 3.86 | 20.9% | 6.2% | 44.2% | 33.6% | 18.4% | |
2017 | 7 | 4.07 | 5.24 | 25.0% | 11.5% | 55.1% | 33.3% | 21.1% |
Kendall Graveman was scratched from tonight’s start, so Manaea will be on the mound for the A’s. I’m not interested in any pitcher facing the Yankees right now, especially one that has struggled against right-handed hitters. As a large underdog on the road, Manaea can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.
Quick Breakdown: The right-handed power bats in the Yankees’ lineup could pose some serious problems for Manaea.
Masahiro Tanaka | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,300 | Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $15,600 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 8 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 29 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 31 | 3.79 | 3.07 | 20.5% | 4.5% | 48.2% | 32.5% | 18.5% | |
2017 | 9 | 4.32 | 6.56 | 17.8% | 6.9% | 49.7% | 32.7% | 18.5% |
I was really bummed that the Yankees’ game was postponed yesterday. I had my Tanaka shares lined up and I was ready to go to war with him. Everyone is talking about Tanaka being past his prime and how the sky is falling, but I’m not giving up hope just yet. His velocity is similar to where it was last season and he is actually generating more swings and misses. I don’t expect him to have a strikeout rate of 25% anytime soon, but I do expect some positive regression moving forward. He has good command, he induces an above-average ground ball rate, and he’s not going to continue to allow a home run every four fly balls. I love the idea of buying low on Tanaka, both in terms of price and ownership.
Quick Breakdown: Tanaka is viable in tournaments tonight and as an SP2 in cash games.
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
I have never been great at predicting ownership, but I expect just as many people to be on the A’s offense as people to be on Masahiro Tanaka. Basically, the public opinion has soured on Tanaka so much that I expect people to start targeting hitters against him. I’m doubling down on my Tanaka take and will be avoiding the A’s completely. He has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA in the last two seasons.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Rajai Davis | RIGHT | 0.302 | 0.273 | 0.140 | 27.1% | 6.3% | 18.7% | 47.4% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,500 | CF | $6,900 |
2 | Matt Joyce | LEFT | 0.348 | 0.370 | 0.214 | 38.0% | 17.8% | 21.8% | 40.8% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,200 |
3 | Jed Lowrie | SWITCH | 0.319 | 0.316 | 0.125 | 33.0% | 8.0% | 16.5% | 37.1% | 2B | $2,300 | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $7,800 |
4 | Khris Davis | RIGHT | 0.349 | 0.370 | 0.289 | 41.2% | 7.3% | 27.9% | 43.1% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,500 | LF | $8,700 |
5 | Yonder Alonso | LEFT | 0.329 | 0.363 | 0.160 | 34.3% | 10.0% | 15.4% | 39.7% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $7,600 |
6 | Ryon Healy | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.328 | 0.190 | 32.1% | 4.6% | 23.8% | 40.1% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B/3B | $3,500 | 3B | $6,900 |
7 | Stephen Vogt | LEFT | 0.314 | 0.321 | 0.163 | 26.9% | 7.3% | 15.4% | 29.9% | C | $2,800 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,300 |
8 | Trevor Plouffe | RIGHT | 0.305 | 0.325 | 0.162 | 33.0% | 5.7% | 19.5% | 43.8% | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $6,400 |
9 | Adam Rosales | RIGHT | 0.290 | 0.253 | 0.201 | 31.1% | 6.6% | 33.0% | 35.1% | 2B | $2,400 | SS | $2,200 | 3B | $4,100 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Khris Davis (GPP)
Stackability – RED
NY Yankees
When Kendall Graveman was expected to pitch, I wasn’t too interested in a Yankees’ stack because of his high ground ball rate. However, now that Sean Manaea will be pitching, I have changed my tune. In the last two seasons, Graveman has allowed a .334 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. All of the righties in this lineup are in play for cash games and tournaments and a full Yankees’ stack is viable as well.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brett Gardner | LEFT | 0.344 | 0.320 | 0.138 | 28.7% | 12.8% | 17.0% | 48.7% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,600 | LF | $9,000 |
2 | Gary Sanchez | RIGHT | 0.429 | 0.382 | 0.311 | 39.9% | 8.5% | 22.2% | 50.6% | C | $3,300 | C | $4,700 | C | $9,200 |
3 | Matt Holliday | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.344 | 0.195 | 35.6% | 9.2% | 20.7% | 51.8% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $3,800 | IF/OF | $7,500 |
4 | Starlin Castro | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.306 | 0.169 | 30.8% | 3.5% | 19.3% | 49.3% | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $6,900 |
5 | Aaron Judge | RIGHT | 0.398 | 0.383 | 0.306 | 48.7% | 10.4% | 34.1% | 42.6% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $5,000 | RF | $9,900 |
6 | Chase Headley | SWITCH | 0.319 | 0.318 | 0.159 | 31.6% | 10.5% | 26.3% | 43.3% | 3B | $2,600 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $6,400 |
7 | Didi Gregorius | LEFT | 0.310 | 0.267 | 0.174 | 25.1% | 3.4% | 15.6% | 41.6% | SS | $3,400 | SS | $4,100 | SS | $8,100 |
8 | Aaron Hicks | SWITCH | 0.336 | 0.306 | 0.156 | 23.5% | 12.5% | 17.9% | 48.6% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,300 | CF | $8,400 |
9 | Chris Carter | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.349 | 0.253 | 39.7% | 11.6% | 34.3% | 30.0% | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $7,600 |
Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Matt Holliday, Aaron Judge
Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Starlin Castro, Chase Headley
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Texas at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET
Texas | Toronto | ||||||||||||||
A.J. Griffin | Mike Bolsinger | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
TOR-150 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.398 | 0.371 | 42.9% | 8.8% | 19.5% | 28.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.327 | 0.362 | 30.2% | 10.8% | 22.9% | 42.3% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.307 | 0.334 | 34.0% | 8.1% | 22.2% | 30.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.415 | 0.412 | 37.4% | 9.6% | 15.7% | 37.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
A.J. Griffin | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $6,700 | Salary: | $13,200 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 21 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 29 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 23 | 4.63 | 5.07 | 21.0% | 9.0% | 29.1% | 38.1% | 18.1% | |
2017 | 7 | 4.50 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 6.3% | 28.9% | 38.6% | 23.7% |
Griffin is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact. Luckily, he has an average strikeout rate or he would be giving up ten runs in every start. Even with a 20% strikeout rate, he’s not a pitcher that finds himself on my radar in DFS. The blowup potential is all too real.
Quick Breakdown: Even though the Blue Jays are still missing some pieces offensively, Griffin carries more risk than potential reward.
Mike Bolsinger | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $5,700 | Salary: | $4,500 | Salary: | $9,000 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 29 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 28 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 30 of 29 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 6 | 4.34 | 6.83 | 20.5% | 7.4% | 33.7% | 41.9% | 17.4% | |
2017 | 3 | 5.65 | 6.32 | 15.8% | 14.5% | 48.0% | 22.0% | 20.0% |
Bolsinger and his 6.32 ERA and 14% walk rate is a -150 favorite tonight; let that sink in. This says a lot more about A.J. Griffin and the state of the Rangers’ offense than it does about Bolsinger. He is not a pitcher that we are going to target in DFS. The strikeouts haven’t been there and we know teams can put up runs in a hurry in the Rogers Centre.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid Bolsinger in all formats, don’t fall for the cheap price tag.
Batter Grind Down
Texas
This is one of the best games to target for hitters tonight. Both of these pitchers provide excellent matchups. We’ll start with the Rangers since they are the visiting team. Over the last two seasons, Mike Bolsinger has allowed a .362 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .412 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. He walks a lot of batters and is a fly-ball pitcher. The Rangers have been ice cold at the plate, but this may be just the matchup that they have needed to get back on track. I should also note that Bolsinger does not hold runners well, so we can give a small boost to the hitters with stolen base upside.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Shin-soo Choo | LEFT | 0.319 | 0.369 | 0.124 | 42.3% | 13.0% | 21.4% | 47.8% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,900 | RF | $7,600 |
2 | Elvis Andrus | RIGHT | 0.331 | 0.321 | 0.136 | 27.7% | 7.8% | 13.8% | 46.1% | SS | $2,600 | SS | $4,000 | SS | $7,600 |
3 | Nomar Mazara | LEFT | 0.344 | 0.339 | 0.193 | 30.8% | 7.8% | 18.3% | 44.4% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,400 | RF | $8,700 |
4 | Jonathan Lucroy | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.340 | 0.180 | 32.1% | 7.4% | 14.8% | 41.6% | C | $3,200 | C | $3,800 | C | $7,600 |
5 | Rougned Odor | LEFT | 0.329 | 0.302 | 0.236 | 34.3% | 3.3% | 21.4% | 39.4% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $7,800 |
6 | Mike Napoli | RIGHT | 0.322 | 0.334 | 0.232 | 34.5% | 9.7% | 29.7% | 36.8% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $7,200 |
7 | Joey Gallo | LEFT | 0.321 | 0.303 | 0.284 | 41.4% | 13.4% | 40.8% | 21.4% | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $4,300 | IF/OF | $8,400 |
8 | Jared Hoying | LEFT | 0.287 | 0.261 | 0.103 | 34.0% | 4.9% | 18.0% | 36.2% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $2,800 | LF | $5,400 |
9 | Delino DeShields | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.246 | 0.096 | 20.7% | 7.4% | 26.4% | 54.2% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,300 | CF | $6,400 |
Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Jonathan Lucroy, Rougned Odor (FD)
Secondary Plays – Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor (DK & FDRFT), Joey Gallo
Stackability – YELLOW
Toronto
The Blue Jays still are finally getting healthy, as Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki are both expected to start tonight. Even though they’ve been short-handed, their offense has been heating up lately. Kevin Pillar has been great in the leadoff spot, Jose Bautista has been red-hot in May, and they are getting some production from the bottom of the order. They come into tonight’s game with one of the highest implied run totals in the slate. A.J. Griffin is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a 43% hard contact rate to lefties. He hasn’t been particularly good against righties either, allowing a .334 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate. If the Blue Jays are going to do some damage tonight, I think it comes in the form of extra-base hits, which is always a good thing in DFS.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.295 | 0.119 | 26.5% | 5.3% | 14.9% | 48.4% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,100 | CF | $8,100 |
2 | Ezequiel Carrera | LEFT | 0.297 | 0.271 | 0.107 | 24.9% | 8.0% | 20.9% | 56.6% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $2,700 | RF | $5,400 |
3 | Jose Bautista | RIGHT | 0.365 | 0.371 | 0.220 | 39.1% | 16.7% | 22.1% | 37.0% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,800 | RF | $9,200 |
4 | Kendrys Morales | SWITCH | 0.312 | 0.397 | 0.198 | 41.0% | 8.4% | 19.2% | 48.2% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $7,600 |
5 | Justin Smoak | SWITCH | 0.323 | 0.345 | 0.201 | 42.4% | 10.8% | 33.2% | 29.8% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $8,100 |
6 | Devon Travis | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.311 | 0.166 | 30.7% | 5.0% | 19.6% | 45.0% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $7,800 |
7 | Russell Martin | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.317 | 0.162 | 29.8% | 11.5% | 26.9% | 48.8% | C | $2,700 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,400 |
8 | Darwin Barney | RIGHT | 0.279 | 0.273 | 0.097 | 24.5% | 5.6% | 16.5% | 50.0% | SS | $2,000 | 2B/3B | $2,200 | 2B | $4,000 |
9 | Ryan Goins | LEFT | 0.263 | 0.278 | 0.155 | 29.1% | 6.5% | 21.1% | 47.3% | 2B | $2,600 | SS | $2,700 | 2B | $5,200 |