MLB Grind Down: Friday, May 26th

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


San Diego at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

San Diego Washington
Article Image Luis Perdomo Article Image Max Scherzer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-260 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.383 0.381 39.5% 6.7% 14.6% 51.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.323 0.296 29.6% 9.0% 25.0% 32.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.334 0.287 27.1% 7.1% 19.1% 69.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.208 0.230 29.3% 3.5% 38.8% 33.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luis Perdomo
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 27 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 4.04 5.71 15.9% 7.0% 59.0% 34.0% 16.7%
2017 7 3.03 5.79 22.0% 6.7% 69.0% 28.3% 14.2%

It’s still early, but it looks like we could have a clean slate in terms of the weather. The only potential issue right now is in Chicago and it just so happens that they have a double-header planned. With very few slates including the one early game, we will only cover the second game in the double-header since it is the only one included in the main slate.

Perdomo was trending in the right direction before getting shelled by the Diamondbacks in his last start. He continues to have a high ERA, but there are encouraging signs. In seven starts, he owns a 3.03 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a ground ball rate of 69%. He has limited hard contact against him this season and can usually stay out of trouble when he can keep the ball on the ground. We obviously don’t want to target him in a road start against the Nationals, but Washington’s offense may not be in the best position either.

Quick Breakdown: I am a Perdomo truther, but he is the largest underdog in the slate and can be avoided in all formats.

Max Scherzer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,800 Salary: $12,700 Salary: $24,800
Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.05 2.96 31.5% 6.2% 33.0% 30.1% 22.2%
2017 9 2.99 3.02 32.2% 6.8% 33.1% 27.0% 19.9%

The next largest spread in this slate is the Indians at -170 over the Royals. Scherzer and the Nationals are -260 favorites, so if you are chasing a win from your pitcher, this is obviously a good place to start. This is also a good place for strikeout upside, as Scherzer boasts a 32% strikeout rate and the Padres have the second highest strikeout rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season. Scherzer is the most talented pitcher in the slate and he arguably has the best matchup as well. He costs an arm and a leg, but it’s typically easier to find value in a 15 game slate than it is in a five game slate, so we can lock and load Scherzer as an elite play in all formats tonight. There is obviously some merit to fading highly-owned arms in tournaments, but let me ask you a question – do you want to be cheering for the Padres’ offense to scrape out a run or two or do you want to cheer Scherzer on while he’s potentially going for the complete game?

Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is by far the best pitching option in the slate. The next three most talented pitchers (deGrom, Archer, and Arrieta) are all playing on the road.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres have the lowest implied run total in the slate. They are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they are facing Max Scherzer, who owns a 2.99 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 32%. The Padres don’t hit right-handed pitching well and they strikeout at a high rate. This is a matchup made in heaven for Scherzer.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.342 0.315 0.171 31.5% 7.7% 13.1% 40.9% 3B $2,500 2B $2,800 2B $5,600
2 Cory Spangenberg LEFT 0.239 0.233 0.047 23.3% 3.5% 20.4% 53.7% 2B $2,300 3B/OF $2,500 2B $4,800
3 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.348 0.327 0.223 34.9% 8.8% 23.9% 43.5% 1B $3,100 1B $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
4 Ryan Schimpf LEFT 0.357 0.344 0.299 35.1% 14.7% 30.7% 19.0% 2B $2,500 3B $3,200 3B $6,400
5 Hunter Renfroe RIGHT 0.304 0.286 0.231 34.3% 3.7% 29.6% 38.0% OF $2,600 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
6 Austin Hedges RIGHT 0.274 0.277 0.205 34.6% 6.2% 30.0% 43.0% C $2,300 C $2,300 C $4,500
7 Matt Szczur RIGHT 0.335 0.317 0.138 24.0% 8.6% 14.1% 38.7% OF $2,100 OF $2,600 LF $5,200
8 Erick Aybar SWITCH 0.281 0.267 0.100 21.0% 7.9% 14.5% 50.9% SS $2,200 SS $2,100 SS $4,200
9 Luis Perdomo RIGHT 0.195 0.152 0.114 13.6% 2.6% 38.5% 44.4% P $6,800 P $5,200 P $10,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals have one of the most explosive offenses in baseball, but I will have zero exposure to the right-handed hitters in this lineup. As a Trea Turner fanboy, this hurts, but Luis Perdomo has a 69% ground ball rate against righties. He has also held them to a .287 wOBA and a 27% hard contact rate. If you are targeting the Nationals tonight, make sure they hit from the left side of the plate. Perdomo has allowed a massive .381 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to lefties, which plays right into the hands of Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy, both of which are fly-ball hitters (negates the effectiveness of Perdomo’s high ground ball rate).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.378 0.338 0.237 32.8% 4.4% 19.0% 43.3% SS $3,800 SS $5,000 IF/OF $9,900
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.310 0.320 0.146 32.0% 11.4% 24.0% 42.4% OF $3,500 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.380 0.396 0.240 35.4% 18.6% 15.7% 39.4% OF $4,600 OF $5,300 RF $10,400
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.323 0.336 0.187 35.6% 5.5% 23.2% 45.8% 1B $3,600 1B $4,600 1B $8,800
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.411 0.398 0.253 38.9% 6.7% 9.2% 35.3% 2B $3,800 2B $4,900 2B $9,600
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.344 0.347 0.191 35.3% 9.3% 18.3% 37.4% 3B $3,500 3B $4,500 3B $8,700
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.311 0.322 0.164 33.1% 6.9% 17.9% 36.2% C $2,700 C $3,300 C $6,400
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.271 0.265 0.133 30.7% 5.4% 31.0% 44.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.182 0.160 0.013 23.0% 2.2% 30.0% 75.0% P $11,800 P $12,700 P $24,800

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Matt Wieters

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW


Cincinnati at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Cincinnati Philadelphia
Article Image Tim Adleman Article Image Aaron Nola
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-130 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.349 0.327 31.9% 8.9% 19.3% 26.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.313 0.310 29.2% 9.2% 20.9% 54.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.337 0.343 37.9% 6.4% 17.0% 43.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.300 0.270 27.1% 3.7% 27.6% 55.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tim Adleman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 26 of 29 Salary Rank: 16 of 29 Salary Rank: 17 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 13 4.87 4.00 16.4% 7.0% 36.4% 35.4% 14.0%
2017 6 4.32 6.19 21.4% 8.6% 35.8% 35.1% 12.4%

Adleman may not be as most as many think he is, but a 4.32 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a hard contact rate of 35% isn’t anything to get excited about. With that said, Adleman is cheap across the industry and we have been streaming pitchers against the Phillies with success for a while now. On the season, Philadelphia is ranked 22nd in both team wOBA and team k-rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Adleman is obviously too risky to use in a cash game format, but it’s not the craziest idea in tournaments.

Aaron Nola
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 10 of 29 Salary Rank: 10 of 29 Salary Rank: 10 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 3.29 4.78 25.1% 6.0% 55.2% 28.8% 23.2%
2017 4 3.97 3.52 20.8% 8.3% 53.7% 25.4% 26.9%

Nola is making his first start of the season and second since coming off of the DL with a back injury. He showed no signs of rust against the Pirates, striking out five hitters in seven innings of work on 89 pitches. Nola is a talented young pitcher that has shown strikeout upside in the majors (25% k-rate last season). He also has an above-average ground ball rate, which allows him to induce an elite soft contact rate. I typically like to wait a few starts before targeting a pitcher that is coming off of an injury, but Nola is cheap and draws a nice matchup against the Reds, who struggle against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: At this price point, Nola is viable in tournaments and potentially as an SP2 in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

There isn’t a lot to like on the Reds’ side of the ball tonight. Aaron Nola has an elite ground ball rate against both left and right-handed hitters and has held both under a 30% hard contact rate. The one batter in this lineup that I don’t mind making an exception for is Joey Votto, who has a massive .442 xwOBA and a 41% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. There are very few hitters in baseball with a higher walk rate (18%) than strikeout rate (15%) against righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.310 0.261 0.085 19.8% 9.1% 19.4% 45.8% OF $3,800 OF $5,100 CF $9,900
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.336 0.303 0.171 30.2% 9.2% 16.6% 38.6% SS $3,400 SS $4,200 SS $8,100
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.426 0.442 0.258 40.7% 17.7% 14.6% 37.0% 1B $4,500 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.325 0.324 0.249 36.5% 5.7% 26.4% 32.8% OF $3,700 OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,700
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.319 0.320 0.163 34.3% 8.0% 23.6% 39.9% 3B $3,000 3B $4,500 3B $8,700
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.341 0.330 0.201 35.0% 7.8% 21.7% 50.4% OF $3,200 OF $4,400 RF $8,400
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.312 0.300 0.079 19.0% 2.1% 13.5% 44.2% 2B $2,700 2B $4,100 2B $8,000
8 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.258 0.309 0.103 20.8% 6.8% 20.3% 39.6% C $2,600 C $2,900 C $5,600
9 Tim Adleman RIGHT 0.062 0.086 0.050 7.7% 0.0% 43.5% 62.5% P $6,300 P $6,900 P $13,600

Elite Plays – Joey Votto (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

When I first saw this game on the schedule, I didn’t expect to be more interested in the pitchers than in the offenses, especially in this home run-friendly ballpark. Tim Adleman is not a pitcher that I shy away from in DFS, but I’ve been avoiding this Phillies’ offense for weeks. You could potentially look at Cesar Hernandez or Tommy Joseph here, but it’s not hard to find better options at their respective positions in a 15 game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.335 0.307 0.108 24.9% 11.1% 18.4% 53.2% 2B $2,900 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.304 0.278 0.175 28.1% 5.3% 21.1% 39.9% SS $2,800 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
3 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.313 0.298 0.149 32.9% 10.1% 31.0% 51.0% OF $3,600 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.326 0.325 0.203 37.5% 5.3% 22.5% 40.6% 1B $3,300 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
5 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.332 0.305 0.147 29.1% 8.7% 20.7% 43.9% OF $2,700 OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,400
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.293 0.322 0.152 29.1% 6.6% 16.4% 44.7% 3B $3,200 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
7 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.300 0.316 0.168 32.6% 6.5% 28.3% 47.3% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,300
8 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.325 0.322 0.192 37.6% 10.2% 26.7% 38.5% OF $2,600 OF $3,500 RF $6,800
9 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.115 0.145 0.032 6.3% 8.3% 44.4% 85.7% P $8,100 P $7,700 P $15,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Tommy Joseph

Stackability – ORANGE


NY Mets at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

NY Mets Pittsburgh
Article Image Jacob deGrom Article Image Chad Kuhl
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-130 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.272 0.291 30.5% 6.7% 24.9% 44.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.386 0.358 36.4% 8.9% 16.4% 38.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.326 0.316 34.6% 7.4% 27.3% 46.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.295 0.286 29.4% 6.6% 19.1% 46.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jacob deGrom
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,000 Salary: $12,100 Salary: $23,600
Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.66 3.04 23.7% 6.0% 45.6% 31.3% 19.0%
2017 9 3.20 3.56 32.3% 9.8% 43.7% 36.3% 21.5%

DeGrom was originally scheduled to pitch last night, but was then pushed back a day. He is one of the few Mets’ players that is having a better year than last season and he’s one of the few that has been able to stay healthy. In nine starts, he has a 3.20 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32%. The high strikeout rate looks like it is sustainable, as he has seen a boost in both velocity and in his swinging strike rate. He would be the ace of the slate if Max Scherzer wasn’t on the mound, but Scherzer clearly has the better matchup and is pitching at home. If you are targeting deGrom here, you are doing it as an ownership pivot off of Scherzer.

Quick Breakdown: DeGrom is an elite play in his own right, but I have a hard time clicking his name over Scherzer’s.

Chad Kuhl
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 26 of 29 Salary Rank: 18 of 29 Salary Rank: 18 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.50 4.20 17.6% 6.6% 44.3% 33.0% 19.6%
2017 9 4.76 5.85 18.3% 9.4% 40.0% 32.0% 14.8%

Kuhl had his best start of the season in his last time out, striking out five batters in five scoreless innings against the Phillies. His numbers aren’t very impressive overall and he hasn’t had a strikeout rate over 20% at any level on his way to the majors. He does have a good fastball (95+ MPH) and his swinging strike rate is appealing (11.5%), but I want to see that materialize into a higher strikeout rate before targeting him in DFS.

Quick Breakdown: Kuhl does not fare well against left-handed hitters and this Mets’ lineup is full of them.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Even though the Mets are on the road and playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, this is a great matchup for their lineup. Chad Kuhl has really struggled against left-handed hitters in his short career, allowing a .358 xwOBA with a 36% hard contact rate and a 39% ground ball rate. The Mets will have at least six lefties in their lineup tonight. Michael Conforto and Jay Bruce will get most of the attention tonight (deservedly so), but I want to focus on Lucas Duda. He owns a .366 xwOBA (which is 31 points higher than his actual wOBA) and a 36% hard contact rate againt right-handed pitching and is only $2,600 on FanDuel, $3,800 on DraftKings, and $7,600 on FantasyDraft.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.376 0.372 0.263 43.7% 12.0% 24.5% 35.9% OF $4,500 OF $5,000 LF $9,900
2 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.278 0.268 0.120 25.3% 7.9% 16.6% 37.0% SS $3,000 3B/SS $4,100 SS $8,100
3 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.371 0.369 0.293 41.7% 9.4% 20.7% 35.8% OF $3,900 1B/OF $4,500 RF $8,700
4 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.324 0.346 0.164 33.5% 9.0% 18.9% 37.5% 2B $3,300 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
5 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.335 0.366 0.190 35.5% 13.4% 22.3% 33.3% 1B $2,600 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
6 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.281 0.278 0.117 28.1% 6.4% 15.4% 38.1% 3B $3,100 1B/3B $3,500 3B $6,900
7 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.333 0.334 0.229 36.0% 12.4% 19.7% 34.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
8 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.272 0.293 0.102 32.0% 6.3% 17.1% 49.5% C $2,400 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 Jacob deGrom RIGHT 0.240 0.233 0.041 27.3% 5.3% 17.5% 57.9% P $11,000 P $12,100 P $23,600

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Neil Walker

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

When it comes to targeting hitters against elite pitchers, I don’t do it unless we have such a small slate that I don’t really have a choice. In a 15 game slate, there is no reason to give the Pirates’ hitters serious consideration. Jacob deGrom has an elite strikeout rate and is tough on both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.362 0.354 0.153 32.7% 9.7% 15.0% 42.9% OF $3,700 2B/OF $4,400 IF/OF $8,700
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.302 0.277 0.101 27.0% 4.0% 14.6% 43.1% 3B $3,100 2B/3B $3,900 2B $7,800
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.306 0.328 0.152 34.2% 9.1% 21.3% 37.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
4 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.330 0.346 0.192 34.0% 9.4% 16.5% 39.8% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
5 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.349 0.354 0.183 31.0% 12.7% 16.2% 51.6% 1B $3,100 1B $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
6 John Jaso LEFT 0.340 0.337 0.159 31.3% 10.7% 17.2% 47.4% 1B $2,700 1B/OF $2,900 1B $5,700
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.312 0.322 0.096 28.4% 12.6% 19.0% 52.7% C $3,000 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.296 0.298 0.100 25.1% 8.8% 14.0% 50.2% SS $2,800 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
9 Chad Kuhl RIGHT 0.078 0.163 0.000 26.3% 6.7% 30.0% 75.0% P $6,300 P $6,600 P $13,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED


Oakland at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Oakland NY Yankees
Article Image Sean Manaea Article Image Masahiro Tanaka
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-157 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.220 0.269 28.7% 5.1% 24.6% 57.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.294 0.301 32.0% 4.1% 19.7% 51.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 0.334 34.6% 7.8% 21.0% 43.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.313 0.316 33.0% 5.8% 20.1% 45.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sean Manaea
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 18 of 29 Salary Rank: 9 of 29 Salary Rank: 8 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 4.04 3.86 20.9% 6.2% 44.2% 33.6% 18.4%
2017 7 4.07 5.24 25.0% 11.5% 55.1% 33.3% 21.1%

Kendall Graveman was scratched from tonight’s start, so Manaea will be on the mound for the A’s. I’m not interested in any pitcher facing the Yankees right now, especially one that has struggled against right-handed hitters. As a large underdog on the road, Manaea can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: The right-handed power bats in the Yankees’ lineup could pose some serious problems for Manaea.

Masahiro Tanaka
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 8 of 29 Salary Rank: 8 of 29 Salary Rank: 8 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.79 3.07 20.5% 4.5% 48.2% 32.5% 18.5%
2017 9 4.32 6.56 17.8% 6.9% 49.7% 32.7% 18.5%

I was really bummed that the Yankees’ game was postponed yesterday. I had my Tanaka shares lined up and I was ready to go to war with him. Everyone is talking about Tanaka being past his prime and how the sky is falling, but I’m not giving up hope just yet. His velocity is similar to where it was last season and he is actually generating more swings and misses. I don’t expect him to have a strikeout rate of 25% anytime soon, but I do expect some positive regression moving forward. He has good command, he induces an above-average ground ball rate, and he’s not going to continue to allow a home run every four fly balls. I love the idea of buying low on Tanaka, both in terms of price and ownership.

Quick Breakdown: Tanaka is viable in tournaments tonight and as an SP2 in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

I have never been great at predicting ownership, but I expect just as many people to be on the A’s offense as people to be on Masahiro Tanaka. Basically, the public opinion has soured on Tanaka so much that I expect people to start targeting hitters against him. I’m doubling down on my Tanaka take and will be avoiding the A’s completely. He has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.302 0.273 0.140 27.1% 6.3% 18.7% 47.4% OF $3,200 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
2 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.348 0.370 0.214 38.0% 17.8% 21.8% 40.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.319 0.316 0.125 33.0% 8.0% 16.5% 37.1% 2B $2,300 2B $4,000 2B $7,800
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.349 0.370 0.289 41.2% 7.3% 27.9% 43.1% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 LF $8,700
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.329 0.363 0.160 34.3% 10.0% 15.4% 39.7% 1B $3,400 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
6 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.325 0.328 0.190 32.1% 4.6% 23.8% 40.1% 1B $3,000 1B/3B $3,500 3B $6,900
7 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.314 0.321 0.163 26.9% 7.3% 15.4% 29.9% C $2,800 C $3,200 C $6,300
8 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.305 0.325 0.162 33.0% 5.7% 19.5% 43.8% 3B $2,800 3B $3,300 3B $6,400
9 Adam Rosales RIGHT 0.290 0.253 0.201 31.1% 6.6% 33.0% 35.1% 2B $2,400 SS $2,200 3B $4,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Khris Davis (GPP)

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

When Kendall Graveman was expected to pitch, I wasn’t too interested in a Yankees’ stack because of his high ground ball rate. However, now that Sean Manaea will be pitching, I have changed my tune. In the last two seasons, Graveman has allowed a .334 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. All of the righties in this lineup are in play for cash games and tournaments and a full Yankees’ stack is viable as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.344 0.320 0.138 28.7% 12.8% 17.0% 48.7% OF $3,700 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
2 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.429 0.382 0.311 39.9% 8.5% 22.2% 50.6% C $3,300 C $4,700 C $9,200
3 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.339 0.344 0.195 35.6% 9.2% 20.7% 51.8% 1B $3,200 1B $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
4 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.326 0.306 0.169 30.8% 3.5% 19.3% 49.3% 2B $3,400 2B $3,500 2B $6,900
5 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.398 0.383 0.306 48.7% 10.4% 34.1% 42.6% OF $4,100 OF $5,000 RF $9,900
6 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.319 0.318 0.159 31.6% 10.5% 26.3% 43.3% 3B $2,600 3B $3,200 3B $6,400
7 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.310 0.267 0.174 25.1% 3.4% 15.6% 41.6% SS $3,400 SS $4,100 SS $8,100
8 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.336 0.306 0.156 23.5% 12.5% 17.9% 48.6% OF $3,200 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
9 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.338 0.349 0.253 39.7% 11.6% 34.3% 30.0% 1B $2,800 1B $4,000 1B $7,600

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Matt Holliday, Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Starlin Castro, Chase Headley

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN


Texas at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Texas Toronto
Article Image A.J. Griffin Article Image Mike Bolsinger
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-150 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.398 0.371 42.9% 8.8% 19.5% 28.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.327 0.362 30.2% 10.8% 22.9% 42.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.307 0.334 34.0% 8.1% 22.2% 30.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.415 0.412 37.4% 9.6% 15.7% 37.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

A.J. Griffin
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 21 of 29 Salary Rank: 17 of 29 Salary Rank: 18 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 23 4.63 5.07 21.0% 9.0% 29.1% 38.1% 18.1%
2017 7 4.50 5.02 20.9% 6.3% 28.9% 38.6% 23.7%

Griffin is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact. Luckily, he has an average strikeout rate or he would be giving up ten runs in every start. Even with a 20% strikeout rate, he’s not a pitcher that finds himself on my radar in DFS. The blowup potential is all too real.

Quick Breakdown: Even though the Blue Jays are still missing some pieces offensively, Griffin carries more risk than potential reward.

Mike Bolsinger
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $4,500 Salary: $9,000
Salary Rank: 29 of 29 Salary Rank: 28 of 29 Salary Rank: 30 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 6 4.34 6.83 20.5% 7.4% 33.7% 41.9% 17.4%
2017 3 5.65 6.32 15.8% 14.5% 48.0% 22.0% 20.0%

Bolsinger and his 6.32 ERA and 14% walk rate is a -150 favorite tonight; let that sink in. This says a lot more about A.J. Griffin and the state of the Rangers’ offense than it does about Bolsinger. He is not a pitcher that we are going to target in DFS. The strikeouts haven’t been there and we know teams can put up runs in a hurry in the Rogers Centre.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Bolsinger in all formats, don’t fall for the cheap price tag.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

This is one of the best games to target for hitters tonight. Both of these pitchers provide excellent matchups. We’ll start with the Rangers since they are the visiting team. Over the last two seasons, Mike Bolsinger has allowed a .362 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .412 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. He walks a lot of batters and is a fly-ball pitcher. The Rangers have been ice cold at the plate, but this may be just the matchup that they have needed to get back on track. I should also note that Bolsinger does not hold runners well, so we can give a small boost to the hitters with stolen base upside.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.319 0.369 0.124 42.3% 13.0% 21.4% 47.8% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.331 0.321 0.136 27.7% 7.8% 13.8% 46.1% SS $2,600 SS $4,000 SS $7,600
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.344 0.339 0.193 30.8% 7.8% 18.3% 44.4% OF $3,300 OF $4,400 RF $8,700
4 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.353 0.340 0.180 32.1% 7.4% 14.8% 41.6% C $3,200 C $3,800 C $7,600
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.329 0.302 0.236 34.3% 3.3% 21.4% 39.4% 2B $2,900 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
6 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.322 0.334 0.232 34.5% 9.7% 29.7% 36.8% 1B $3,300 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
7 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.321 0.303 0.284 41.4% 13.4% 40.8% 21.4% 3B $2,800 3B $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
8 Jared Hoying LEFT 0.287 0.261 0.103 34.0% 4.9% 18.0% 36.2% OF $2,300 OF $2,800 LF $5,400
9 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.292 0.246 0.096 20.7% 7.4% 26.4% 54.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 CF $6,400

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Jonathan Lucroy, Rougned Odor (FD)

Secondary Plays – Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor (DK & FDRFT), Joey Gallo

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays still are finally getting healthy, as Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki are both expected to start tonight. Even though they’ve been short-handed, their offense has been heating up lately. Kevin Pillar has been great in the leadoff spot, Jose Bautista has been red-hot in May, and they are getting some production from the bottom of the order. They come into tonight’s game with one of the highest implied run totals in the slate. A.J. Griffin is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a 43% hard contact rate to lefties. He hasn’t been particularly good against righties either, allowing a .334 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate. If the Blue Jays are going to do some damage tonight, I think it comes in the form of extra-base hits, which is always a good thing in DFS.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.303 0.295 0.119 26.5% 5.3% 14.9% 48.4% OF $3,700 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
2 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.297 0.271 0.107 24.9% 8.0% 20.9% 56.6% OF $2,600 OF $2,700 RF $5,400
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.365 0.371 0.220 39.1% 16.7% 22.1% 37.0% OF $3,800 OF $4,800 RF $9,200
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.312 0.397 0.198 41.0% 8.4% 19.2% 48.2% 1B $3,000 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
5 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.323 0.345 0.201 42.4% 10.8% 33.2% 29.8% 1B $3,300 1B $4,100 1B $8,100
6 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.332 0.311 0.166 30.7% 5.0% 19.6% 45.0% 2B $3,300 2B $4,000 2B $7,800
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.320 0.317 0.162 29.8% 11.5% 26.9% 48.8% C $2,700 C $3,200 C $6,400
8 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.279 0.273 0.097 24.5% 5.6% 16.5% 50.0% SS $2,000 2B/3B $2,200 2B $4,000
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.263 0.278 0.155 29.1% 6.5% 21.1% 47.3% 2B $2,600 SS $2,700 2B $5,200

Elite Plays – Kevin Pillar, Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, Devon Travis

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Ezequiel Carrera, Russell Martin

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious