MLB Grind Down: Friday, September 9th

Jump to Page 1 2 3


The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs


Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Cincinnati Pittsburgh
cincinnatimlb Tim Adleman pittsburghmlb Steven Brault
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT -157 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.365 6 27.8% 23.2% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.328 0 9.1% 18.8%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.340 4 35.2% 12.4% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.353 2 31.3% 19.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tim Adleman
tim-adleman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,700
FPPG: 22.6 FPPG: 11.2
Pitcher Rating: 34.0 Pitcher Rank: 29
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 81.3 5.06 4.29 15.9% 4.6% 10.5% 25.4% 52.2% 35.3%
2016 8 82.6 4.84 4.02 17.5% 7.6% 9.7% 34.7% 46.3% 32.0%

Home:ERA: 3.86 — K%: 16.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.348
Away:ERA: 4.24 — K%: 18.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.360

Am I the only one that is having a hard time concentrating on baseball with the first NFL Sunday only two days away?

Adleman has not pitched well in his six start this season, posting a 4.84 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.5%. He is a fly ball pitcher that has allowed a hard contact rate of 32%. While the Pirates have struggled against right-handed pitching, there isn’t enough upside for Adleman to warrant fantasy consideration.

Steven Brault
steven-brault-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 21.8 FPPG: 11.0
Pitcher Rating: 61.1 Pitcher Rank: 14
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 2 88.0 4.75 3.00 21.4% 11.9% 9.7% 37.0% 29.6% 33.3%
2016 4 91.0 4.97 3.32 19.5% 11.5% 9.3% 35.1% 36.8% 27.1%

Home:ERA: 1.80 — K%: 23.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.354
Away:ERA: 3.86 — K%: 18.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.347

Brault has a low ERA in his first four major league starts, but his peripheral statistics tell another story. During that stretch, he has a 4.97 SIERA with a walk rate of 11.5%. While I do like that he is pitching at home against the Reds, there are more favorable matchups to exploit tonight. Brault is a deep GPP flier at best in this full slate.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds have a mediocre run projection tonight, as they square off against rookie Steven Brault. The sample size is small, but Brault has allowed a .353 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season. Jose Peraza is an intriguing play if he is batting leadoff again. He has good stolen base potential, especially if Francisco Cervelli is behind the plate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.363 0.154 22.0% 0.488 SS $2,900 OF/SS $4,100
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.340 0.236 31.3% 0.280 SS $3,500 SS $4,200
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.402 0.177 30.4% 0.403 1B $3,700 1B $4,500
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.316 0.217 40.2% 0.302 OF $3,100 OF $3,900
5 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.301 0.092 22.9% 0.301 2B $3,000 2B $3,600
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.374 0.227 31.9% 0.302 3B $2,700 3B $4,100
7 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.226 0.065 15.6% 0.246 C $2,400 C $3,000
8 Tyler Holt RIGHT 0.266 0.057 15.8% 0.379 OF $2,200 OF $3,000
9 Tim Adleman RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.000 P $6,000 P $5,700
Team Averages 0.288 0.136 23.3% 0.300

Elite Plays – Jose Peraza

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Adam Duvall

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have the second highest run projection in the slate. I repeat, the Pirates have the second highest run projection in the slate. They have been a disappointment offensively this season, but you have to like the matchup against Tim Adleman. On the season, he has allowed a .340+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.295 0.097 25.7% 0.319 2B $3,300 2B $3,500
2 John Jaso LEFT 0.342 0.144 32.3% 0.457 1B $2,500 1B $3,100
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.352 0.182 38.2% 0.337 OF $3,200 OF $3,900
4 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.331 0.171 33.4% 0.236 OF $4,000 OF $5,000
5 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.350 0.154 32.2% 0.388 OF $3,700 OF $5,400
6 Jung-Ho Kang RIGHT 0.367 0.216 37.6% 0.866 3B $3,300 3B $4,900
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.318 0.075 26.8% 0.274 C $2,900 C $2,900
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.275 0.088 24.5% 0.287 SS $2,600 SS $3,100
9 Steven Brault LEFT 0.176 0.000 0.0% 0.000 P $5,800 P $4,000
Team Averages 0.312 0.125 27.9% 0.352

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Jung-Ho Kang

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Philadelphia Washington
philadelphiamlb Jake Thompson washingtonmlb Tanner Roark
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS -265 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.381 3 31.6% 13.4% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.319 15 30.8% 16.4%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.340 4 37.3% 16.2% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.293 16 20.3% 18.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Thompson
jake-thompson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 17.7 FPPG: 7.2
Pitcher Rating: 30.0 Pitcher Rank: 30
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 98.6 5.40 5.59 16.4% 12.5% 6.9% 50.6% 39.1% 31.1%
2016 6 96.0 5.54 6.48 14.7% 12.0% 7.1% 49.0% 36.5% 34.3%

Home:ERA: 4.13 — K%: 18.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.298
Away:ERA: 12.54 — K%: 6.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.500

Thompson has been one of my favorite pitchers to target hitters against and that’s not a tradition that I am willing to abandon just yet. He comes into tonight’s game as a massive underdog against the Nationals, who have a lot more to play for than the Phillies. With such a low strikeout rate, Thompson can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Tanner Roark
tanner-roark-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $9,300
FPPG: 33.1 FPPG: 17.1
Pitcher Rating: 57.4 Pitcher Rank: 19
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 101.8 5.41 2.97 14.5% 10.5% 6.5% 41.4% 34.5% 31.5%
2016 28 102.9 4.35 2.89 19.3% 8.0% 8.4% 48.9% 30.8% 24.5%
2015 12 150.0 4.16 4.38 15.0% 5.6% 7.1% 47.8% 30.6% 26.3%

Home:ERA: 3.33 — K%: 18.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.302
Away:ERA: 3.56 — K%: 16.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.308

I’ve been harping on the potential regression for Roark recently. His low ERA is unsustainable given the rest of his numbers. In his last five starts, he has a 5.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 14.5%. Eventually, the wheels are going to come off. While I am always a fan of targeting pitchers against the Phillies, I will have very limited exposure to Roark.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

In what should surprise no one, the Phillies have one of the lowest implied team totals in the slate. They have struggled against right-handed pitching this season, they are playing in a pitcher’s ballpark, and they draw a difficult matchup against Tanner Roark. Even though I expect regression to hit eventually, Roark has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 wOBA.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.312 0.105 26.7% 0.321 2B $3,300 2B $3,800
2 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.343 0.144 29.7% 0.280 OF $3,300 OF $3,800
3 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.317 0.180 28.4% 0.191 3B $3,000 3B $3,100
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.314 0.238 37.2% 0.188 1B $2,300 1B $3,500
5 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.290 0.144 30.2% 0.112 C $2,700 C $2,700
6 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.293 0.137 28.1% 0.357 SS $2,700 SS $3,700
7 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.330 0.187 32.6% 0.220 OF $2,700 OF $3,500
8 Peter Bourjos RIGHT 0.282 0.153 22.6% 0.322 OF $2,700 OF $3,100
9 Jake Thompson RIGHT 0.146 0.000 16.7% 0.000 P $6,100 P $4,000
Team Averages 0.292 0.143 28.0% 0.221

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ryan Howard

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals had a big letdown last night against Alec Asher. They will look to right the ship tonight against Jake Thompson, who has been downright awful in his first six major league starts. With the highest implied team total on the board, hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.373 0.211 31.1% 0.388 OF $4,200 2B/OF $5,300
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.299 0.141 34.0% 0.368 OF $3,700 OF $4,200
3 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.378 0.227 36.2% 0.346 2B $4,300 2B $5,500
4 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.424 0.284 36.7% 0.356 OF $4,000 OF $5,300
5 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.307 0.144 30.2% 0.294 C $3,600 C $4,100
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.329 0.156 36.0% 0.350 3B $3,800 3B $4,200
7 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.283 0.156 32.6% 0.181 1B $3,200 1B $3,100
8 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.303 0.157 30.1% 0.290 SS $2,900 SS $3,200
9 Tanner Roark RIGHT 0.151 0.030 8.0% 0.176 P $8,500 P $9,300
Team Averages 0.316 0.167 30.5% 0.305

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rendon, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay NY Yankees
tampabaymlb Blake Snell nyyankeesmlb Michael Pineda
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY -140 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.290 0 34.9% 26.0% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.330 17 32.4% 25.0%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.324 4 29.8% 23.2% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.327 26 31.4% 24.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Blake Snell
blake-snell-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $7,100
FPPG: 29.1 FPPG: 14.6
Pitcher Rating: 58.4 Pitcher Rank: 18
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 85.0 5.06 4.66 24.2% 15.8% 12.7% 29.8% 38.6% 36.8%
2016 15 93.9 4.61 3.39 23.8% 12.7% 10.5% 37.5% 35.6% 30.8%

Home:ERA: 3.38 — K%: 25.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.309
Away:ERA: 3.41 — K%: 21.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.328

Snell has shown great strikeout potential this season, but until he can improve his command, he will remain a risky fantasy option. On the season, he owns a 4.61 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.8% and a walk rate of 12.7%. He draws a fairly difficult matchup against the Yankees, who have had an offensive surge in the last four weeks.

Michael Pineda
michael-pineda-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $7,400
FPPG: 29.1 FPPG: 15.2
Pitcher Rating: 80.8 Pitcher Rank: 6
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 86.0 3.60 4.78 20.5% 5.4% 13.0% 54.3% 22.2% 37.0%
2016 27 95.5 3.44 5.10 26.3% 6.4% 14.0% 46.4% 31.6% 33.7%
2015 27 94.4 3.09 4.37 23.4% 3.1% 11.9% 48.2% 29.9% 30.1%

Home:ERA: 4.60 — K%: 25.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.325
Away:ERA: 4.86 — K%: 23.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.332

Pineda grades out as one of the best values at the pitcher position, but that always sees to be the case. In 27 starts this season, he has a 3.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26.3%. The main issue is that his solid peripheral stats have yet to show up in his actual ERA. The good news is that he gets to face a strikeout-happy Rays’ offense. Even if Pineda gives up a couple of runs, the strikeouts should be there.

Batter Grind Down

The Rays are ranked 15th in team wOBA and fourth in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. While they see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Yankee Stadium, I don’t love their matchup against Michael Pineda. As I mentioned above, his ERA estimators suggest that he has been a better pitcher than that 5.10 ERA.

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.335 0.139 31.5% 0.403 2B $3,200 2B $4,300
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.324 0.176 27.8% 0.353 OF $3,600 OF $4,600
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.332 0.201 33.8% 0.247 3B $3,800 3B $3,700
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.349 0.228 34.7% 0.215 SS $3,300 1B/SS $4,000
5 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.322 0.192 35.1% 0.523 1B $2,500 1B $4,000
6 Steven Souza RIGHT 0.309 0.165 32.8% 0.145 OF $2,700 OF $2,700
7 Nick Franklin SWITCH 0.314 0.210 36.0% 0.345 2B $3,000 2B/OF $3,800
8 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.343 0.259 34.0% 0.298 OF $2,900 OF $3,400
9 Bobby Wilson RIGHT 0.253 0.089 22.8% 0.307 C $2,000 C $2,800
Team Averages 0.320 0.184 32.1% 0.315

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kevin Kiermaier

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees have the seventh highest run projection in the slate, as they square off against Blake Snell at home. In 15 starts this season, Snell has allowed a .324 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Gary Sanchez has cooled off a bit recently, but that has suppressed his salary.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.317 0.102 23.0% 0.280 OF $3,300 OF $3,300
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.280 0.078 23.6% 0.396 OF $3,300 OF $3,800
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.209 0.130 30.8% 0.375 C $3,800 C $4,300
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.316 0.107 22.8% 0.277 SS $3,100 SS $3,700
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.296 0.119 27.8% 0.336 2B $2,500 2B $3,500
6 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.316 0.112 27.0% 0.359 3B $2,700 3B $3,400
7 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.305 0.171 30.7% 0.222 C $2,300 C $2,500
8 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.068 0.000 40.0% 0.177 OF $2,400 OF $3,700
9 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.110 0.000 60.0% 0.391 1B $2,300 1B $2,500
Team Averages 0.246 0.091 31.7% 0.313

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Gary Sanchez, Starlin Castro

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Boston at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Boston Toronto
bostonmlb Rick Porcello torontomlb Marco Estrada
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS -114 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.308 24 33.2% 20.9% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.273 24 28.0% 19.5%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.312 21 29.8% 19.9% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.287 21 31.7% 20.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rick Porcello
rick-porcello-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,500 Salary: $11,000
FPPG: 37.5 FPPG: 19.8
Pitcher Rating: 69.0 Pitcher Rank: 11
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 103.5 3.65 2.47 21.2% 1.8% 8.9% 41.7% 38.6% 29.9%
2016 28 102.7 3.85 3.23 20.6% 3.8% 7.7% 44.4% 36.5% 30.6%
2015 28 98.0 3.73 4.92 20.2% 5.2% 8.5% 45.7% 32.5% 32.8%

Home:ERA: 3.60 — K%: 21.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.300
Away:ERA: 4.46 — K%: 19.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.319

Porcello has quietly pitched well this season, sporting a 3.23 ERA (3.85 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 20.6%. He doesn’t walk many batters and he produces enough ground balls to limit his hard contact allowed. Unfortunately, he has to face the Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre tonight. On the season, Toronto is ranked ninth in team wOBA and fifth in team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Marco Estrada
marco-estrada-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $6,800
FPPG: 32.4 FPPG: 17.6
Pitcher Rating: 50.8 Pitcher Rank: 23
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 90.4 4.82 6.58 18.3% 8.3% 10.6% 32.1% 44.0% 32.6%
2016 24 98.2 4.33 3.56 22.5% 8.5% 10.8% 34.0% 46.7% 32.6%
2015 28 104.0 4.64 3.13 18.1% 7.6% 9.9% 32.2% 52.3% 27.4%

Home:ERA: 3.11 — K%: 19.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.278
Away:ERA: 3.52 — K%: 20.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.280

Despite being an extreme fly ball pitcher, Estrada has pitched well at home in the last two seasons, posting a 3.11 ERA with a strikeout rate of 19.9%. His numbers suggest some regression, but that has been the case for nearly two full seasons now. The main issue tonight is his matchup against the Red Sox, who are ranked first in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. When AL East teams meet up, there are generally a lot of runs scored.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox may not be playing at home, but they are facing an extreme fly ball pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark. In the last two seasons, Marco Estrada has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA, but he gave up 45 home runs during that stretch. A Red Sox stack is always in play, but I actually prefer using them as one-off targets in tournaments.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.357 0.136 29.7% 0.499 2B $3,400 2B $4,100
2 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.330 0.118 27.7% 0.317 SS $3,600 SS $3,900
3 David Ortiz LEFT 0.426 0.336 45.0% 0.331 1B $4,300 1B $5,100
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.368 0.209 33.2% 0.366 OF $3,900 OF $4,800
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.319 0.160 34.2% 0.434 1B $3,700 1B $4,200
6 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.329 0.119 29.5% 0.290 C $2,700 C $3,100
7 Chris Young RIGHT 0.352 0.000 0.0% 0.379 OF $3,500 P $4,000
8 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.230 0.067 16.7% 0.254 3B $3,000 2B/3B $3,000
9 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.369 0.266 37.9% 0.340 OF $3,400 OF $4,400
Team Averages 0.342 0.157 28.2% 0.357

Elite Plays – David Ortiz, Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez, Sandy Leon

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays are always in play at home in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. While their matchup against Rick Porcello doesn’t look great on paper, he has allowed 45 home runs (the same number as Marco Estrada) in the last two seasons. Much like the Red Sox, I prefer to use the Blue Jays as one-offs tonight rather than a full stack when it comes to GPPs.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.377 0.266 37.1% 0.341 OF $3,800 OF $4,000
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.396 0.265 37.9% 0.478 3B $4,100 3B $4,500
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.389 0.285 36.5% 0.325 1B $4,100 1B $3,900
4 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.328 0.198 30.6% 0.324 C $3,000 C $3,100
5 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.323 0.178 34.6% 0.295 SS $2,900 SS $3,600
6 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.335 0.199 36.9% 0.364 OF $3,000 OF $3,400
7 Melvin Upton RIGHT 0.291 0.149 32.1% 0.326 OF $3,300 OF $3,000
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.302 0.125 25.6% 0.358 OF $2,800 OF $2,800
9 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.357 0.183 28.1% 0.274 2B $3,200 2B $3,300
Team Averages 0.344 0.205 33.3% 0.343

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at Detroit – 7:08 PM ET

Baltimore Detroit
baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman detroitmlb Michael Fulmer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET -115 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.279 12 28.9% 25.3% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.272 6 29.8% 16.4%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.358 28 30.1% 21.0% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.285 8 31.4% 24.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $9,600
FPPG: 31.7 FPPG: 16.9
Pitcher Rating: 61.7 Pitcher Rank: 13
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 107.2 3.33 1.82 29.8% 9.1% 11.6% 53.4% 28.8% 31.5%
2016 25 102.8 3.75 3.58 24.1% 6.5% 11.0% 43.6% 35.0% 31.2%
2015 17 110.4 3.69 4.25 21.9% 6.2% 10.9% 44.4% 38.1% 27.4%

Home:ERA: 2.24 — K%: 22.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.275
Away:ERA: 5.39 — K%: 23.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.357

Gausman is one of the few pitchers that we should almost automatically look to avoid when he is pitching on the road. There are obviously some exceptions, but a matchup against the Tigers in Detroit isn’t one of them. In the last two seasons, Gausman has a 5.39 ERA on the road with a .357 wOBA allowed. He is also a reverse-splits pitcher, which plays right into the hands of the right-handed heavy Tigers’ offense.

Michael Fulmer
michael-fulmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,000
FPPG: 33.6 FPPG: 18.2
Pitcher Rating: 69.1 Pitcher Rank: 10
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 96.5 4.18 4.21 16.8% 2.8% 9.8% 42.7% 32.9% 31.0%
2016 22 95.0 4.01 2.77 20.3% 6.4% 10.6% 49.4% 30.2% 30.6%

Home:ERA: 2.95 — K%: 19.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.281
Away:ERA: 2.68 — K%: 20.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.277

Fulmer has cooled off over the last month of play, posting a 4.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.8%. He has shown great command for a rookie and has basically worked up to being the number two starter in this rotation. He draws a boom or bust type of matchup tonight against the Orioles, who are ranked third in team wOBA, but 22nd in team K% against right-handed pitching this season. With two of the best offenses in baseball going at it, I have a hard time justifying either pitcher in this game.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles may be a top three offense against right-handed pitching, but they come into tonight’s game with a below-average run projection. Michael Fulmer has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters, holding them under a .290 wOBA this season. Chris Davis has been heating up, but he is dealing a hand injury, which is never good for a baseball player.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.345 0.207 31.9% 0.329 OF $3,800 OF $4,300
2 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.345 0.251 39.2% 0.326 3B $3,400 1B $3,500
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.383 0.251 35.0% 0.406 3B $4,000 3B/SS $4,300
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.351 0.230 34.9% 0.368 OF $3,500 OF $4,000
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.389 0.319 43.8% 0.418 1B $3,900 1B $4,200
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.352 0.218 33.1% 0.223 2B $3,300 2B $3,800
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.318 0.163 31.6% 0.298 C $2,700 C $3,100
8 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.352 0.218 33.1% 0.223 2B $3,300 2B $3,800
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.277 0.126 28.7% 0.249 SS $2,300 SS $2,700
Team Averages 0.346 0.220 34.6% 0.316

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Pedro Alvarez, Manny Machado, Chris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

The Tigers are ranked tenth or better in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Of the two offenses in this game, I highly prefer the Tigers. In the last two seasons, Kevin Gausman has allowed a .358 wOBA and 28 home runs to right-handed hitters. This is one of the few spots where I will be actively targeting the individual righty/righty matchups.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.335 0.152 29.3% 0.407 2B $3,800 2B $3,800
2 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.321 0.092 21.3% 0.305 OF $2,900 OF $3,200
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.400 0.218 39.9% 0.411 1B $3,900 1B $4,500
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.308 0.158 36.2% 0.276 C $3,600 1B $3,000
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.384 0.251 40.4% 0.389 OF $3,700 OF $4,000
6 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.339 0.208 36.7% 0.444 OF $3,000 OF $3,500
7 Casey McGehee RIGHT 0.216 0.063 22.5% 0.257 3B $2,000 3B $2,000
8 Jarrod Saltalamacchia SWITCH 0.306 0.202 39.6% 0.239 C $2,200 C $2,800
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.275 0.054 14.7% 0.255 SS $2,400 SS $2,000
Team Averages 0.320 0.155 31.2% 0.331

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Cameron Maybin, Justin Upton

Stackability – YELLOW


Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums


Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious