MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 14th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-08-15 02:22:08

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Cleveland at Boston – 6:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cleveland								Boston
			Trevor Bauer							Doug Fister
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-105							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.320	0.327	35.5%	8.1%	23.5%	41.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.400	0.369	37.9%	9.4%	13.8%	39.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.317	0.325	30.8%	9.0%	21.8%	53.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.268	0.289	25.2%	7.5%	17.4%	51.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Trevor Bauer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		2 of 22	Salary Rank:		3 of 22	Salary Rank:		of 22
	2016	28	4.22	4.26	20.7%	8.6%	48.7%	31.9%	19.0%
	2017	22	3.88	4.79	25.6%	8.5%	46.9%	34.7%	15.0%
	L30	5	3.89	3.25	25.2%	8.4%	45.6%	25.3%	17.7%

I hope everyone had a great weekend. There was a lot going on in the DFS world with a live MLB final and the last major of the year for golf. We kick the week off with an 11-game schedule, but the Red Sox game starts an hour earlier than most. This game is only included in the all-day slate on FanDuel and in the early-only slate on DraftKings. If you are only playing the main slates, feel free to scroll down to the next game.

Bauer has had a roller coaster of a season, but he has been trending upward in his last five starts – 3.89 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. He’s a pitcher that we never really know what to expect from. He’s been awful in good matchups and sharp in bad ones. Basically, he’s the exact opposite of what we would consider a “safe” cash game play. He lacks tournament appeal tonight as well, as he takes on a Red Sox offense that has the third lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: There is more risk than potential reward with Bauer tonight, especially with this game being played in Fenway Park.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Doug Fister
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		11 of 22	Salary Rank:		13 of 22	Salary Rank:		of 22
	2016	32	4.97	4.64	14.8%	8.0%	45.3%	31.5%	19.7%
	2017	6	4.94	5.03	18.6%	10.7%	45.4%	35.0%	15.5%
	L30	3	4.69	4.38	17.4%	9.2%	50.0%	36.3%	13.8%

Fister does not fit the mold of the type of pitcher we like to target in DFS, unless you are playing in some sort of low-ball format where the goal is to score as few fantasy points as possible. In his six starts this season, he owns a 4.94 SIERA with a high walk rate and a below-average strikeout rate. When a pitcher has bad numbers, he needs a high strikeout rate to cover them up. With Fister, that’s just not the case. It doesn’t help that he’s facing an Indians’ offense that is ranked seventh in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: This game is basically set as a pick ‘em with a total of ten runs. Bauer and Fister should both be avoided in what could turn into a shootout.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

It’s too bad that this game isn’t included in the main slate, as the Indians are one of my favorite teams to stack in the slate. Anytime we get a good offense that is facing a bad pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark, they should pique our interest. In addition to the low strikeout rate and high walk rate, Doug Fister has allowed a .369 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons. His BB/K ratio is also bad against lefties. This bodes well for an Indians’ offense that could potentially roll out seven batters from the left side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.285	0.296	0.162	30.7%	6.9%	20.2%	31.6%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
2	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.310	0.317	0.197	30.9%	7.8%	14.1%	39.1%	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,300	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.387	0.351	0.246	33.9%	8.0%	11.2%	39.2%	3B	$3,500	2B/3B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.356	0.369	0.241	38.1%	12.7%	21.7%	35.7%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.371	0.365	0.269	42.1%	9.8%	22.3%	33.3%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
6	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.348	0.379	0.200	37.2%	14.0%	19.9%	33.2%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
7	Bradley Zimmer	LEFT	0.322	0.314	0.188	36.6%	9.8%	29.9%	44.4%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
8	Abraham Almonte	SWITCH	0.333	0.332	0.184	35.8%	10.0%	28.2%	43.3%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	Roberto Perez	RIGHT	0.231	0.244	0.054	22.7%	7.8%	27.5%	49.2%	C	$2,000	C	$2,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana, Bradley Zimmer

Stackability – GREEN

Boston

The Red Sox currently hold a 5.5 game lead over the Yankees in the American League East, while the Indians hold a 4.5 game lead over the Twins in the American League Central, so this series is important for both teams. Trevor Bauer isn’t quite as exploitable of a matchup as Doug Fister, but there are certainly some viable plays in this Red Sox lineup. Since the start of last season, Bauer has allowed a .325+ xwOBA to batters from both sides of the plate. He does induce more ground balls against righties (53%) though, so give a slight bump to those that bat from the left side of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.348	0.275	0.141	26.4%	2.9%	10.6%	52.2%	2B	$3,600	3B/OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
2	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.336	0.328	0.194	35.6%	9.5%	10.7%	40.4%	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
3	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.353	0.343	0.187	38.3%	10.6%	16.1%	36.9%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
4	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.324	0.356	0.167	34.3%	8.4%	18.9%	42.8%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
5	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.325	0.381	0.192	42.0%	10.2%	22.9%	38.8%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.317	0.268	0.130	31.0%	7.1%	18.0%	48.0%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.393	0.351	0.256	40.0%	10.4%	16.7%	51.4%	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
8	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.307	0.263	0.090	25.2%	5.0%	18.9%	47.7%	C	$2,500	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.306	0.329	0.166	37.9%	9.1%	24.4%	40.6%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Hanley Ramirez, Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Tampa Bay								Toronto
			Jake Odorizzi							Nick Tepesch
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-100							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.283	0.291	31.5%	7.4%	23.7%	35.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.434	0.439	50.0%	0.0%	10.0%	33.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.335	0.348	37.7%	7.8%	19.0%	33.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.548	0.382	37.5%	8.8%	20.6%	33.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jake Odorizzi
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:		10 of 22	Salary Rank:		8 of 22	Salary Rank:		7 of 22
	2016	33	4.21	3.69	21.5%	7.0%	36.6%	33.7%	16.8%
	2017	19	4.84	4.38	20.0%	8.8%	30.3%	37.9%	15.4%
	L30	3	5.57	3.00	19.1%	11.1%	22.7%	40.9%	15.9%

The two times to avoid Odorizzi are when he is pitching on the road and when he is facing a right-handed heavy offense. He’s two-for-two tonight, as he takes on the Blue Jays in Toronto. In his career, Odorizzi’s FIP is nearly a full run higher on the road and his strikeout rate dips nearly 3%. He also has serious reverse-splits, allowing a .348 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to righties in the last two seasons combined. Surprisingly, he has pitched well against the Blue Jays in his career, but I’m trusting the splits in this one.

Quick Breakdown: On paper, this is a terrible matchup for Odorizzi. He has also been dealing with a foot contusion.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Nick Tepesch
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,800	Salary:		$9,600
	Salary Rank:		22 of 22	Salary Rank:		22 of 22	Salary Rank:		20 of 22
	2016	1	4.53	11.25	15.8%	0.0%	25.0%	31.3%	12.5%
	2017	2	5.05	9.00	17.1%	8.6%	38.5%	50.0%	11.5%
	L30	1	4.80	10.38	18.2%	4.6%	29.4%	47.1%	11.8%

We shouldn’t put a lot of stock into Tepesch’s numbers from the last two seasons because he has only made three starts. However, even when we look at his minor league numbers, it doesn’t get any better. In six outings at the Triple-A level this season, he posted a 5.20 FIP with a 21% strikeout rate and a 7% walk rate. Basically, he’s not a very good pitcher, especially at the major league level. The Rays are one of my favorite offenses in tonight’s slate, so I will obviously be avoiding Tepesch in both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: If you like to target pitchers that could potentially get pulled in the first few innings, Tepesch is your guy.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Toronto and they draw one of the top matchups in the slate. If we look at the career splits for Nick Tepesch, he has allowed a .341 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .350 wOBA to right-handed hitters. He doesn’t have a lot to offer in terms of strikeout upside and his career walk rate is above 7%. With all of the firepower in this Rays’ lineup, they are one of my favorite offenses to stack in the slate. The best part is that the Rays are cheap. Corey Dickerson, Lucas Duda, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, Steve Souza are all underpriced on at least one of the three main sites (FanDuel, DraftKings, and FantasyDraft).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.347	0.316	0.230	36.6%	6.2%	23.1%	38.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600	LF	$7,200
2	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.370	0.381	0.278	42.4%	14.0%	24.8%	27.9%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,800
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.336	0.313	0.182	31.7%	5.3%	14.2%	43.7%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,100	3B	$6,000
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.368	0.378	0.281	40.8%	14.1%	24.8%	31.3%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,200
5	Steve Souza	RIGHT	0.391	0.377	0.307	39.2%	13.1%	29.4%	39.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
6	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.297	0.315	0.115	35.3%	20.0%	27.3%	52.6%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,100	2B	$6,000
7	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.162	0.269	0.097	32.1%	2.6%	26.0%	47.2%	C	$2,000	C	$2,300	C	$4,400
8	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.316	0.249	0.094	21.2%	10.0%	20.5%	53.3%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,800
9	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.229	0.257	0.051	27.1%	1.9%	21.9%	49.2%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,600	SS	$5,200

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson, Lucas Duda, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, Steve Souza (DK)

Secondary Plays – Steve Souza (FD), Brad Miller

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto

The Blue Jays are all but out of playoff contention, but they are still an offense that we can target regularly thanks to their home run upside. It’s a bit puzzling that they haven’t had more success against Jake Odorizzi in the past, seeing as how he is a reverse-splits pitcher that struggles on the road. The two batters with glaringly bad BvP are Jose Bautista (4-for-32 with nine strikeouts) and Justin Smoak (2-for-18 with three strikeouts). The rest of the lineup has decent enough numbers that I’m not going to worry about it. As mentioned above, Odorizzi has allowed a .348 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to righties since the start of last season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.323	0.330	0.193	34.0%	12.9%	22.7%	34.4%	OF	$4,200	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.372	0.373	0.221	33.3%	16.3%	23.6%	42.5%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,500	3B	$8,800
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.374	0.393	0.282	41.4%	10.1%	23.2%	32.9%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,600
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.301	0.364	0.194	36.3%	8.1%	21.5%	47.3%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
5	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.339	0.321	0.155	31.5%	9.9%	19.8%	42.5%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,600	1B	$7,200
6	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.274	0.279	0.132	27.6%	7.7%	16.9%	46.1%	SS	$2,400	2B/SS	$2,500	2B	$4,800
7	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.270	0.299	0.125	25.6%	5.6%	15.4%	46.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,400
8	Rafael Lopez	LEFT												N/A	N/A
9	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.236	0.255	0.094	16.8%	2.1%	15.2%	47.9%	2B	$2,100	2B/3B	$2,000	2B	$3,900

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales, Steve Pearce, Ryan Goins

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at NY Yankees – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Mets								NY Yankees
			Rafael Montero							Luis Cessa
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-180							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.381	0.328	26.2%	12.6%	19.2%	43.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.295	0.332	37.1%	8.5%	16.5%	45.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.383	0.339	29.0%	12.7%	24.0%	44.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.350	0.344	28.7%	6.0%	16.7%	41.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Rafael Montero
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$5,000	Salary:		$9,900
	Salary Rank:		19 of 22	Salary Rank:		21 of 22	Salary Rank:		19 of 22
	2016	3	5.40	8.05	21.5%	17.2%	35.7%	31.6%	17.5%
	2017	9	4.59	6.06	21.9%	11.3%	46.7%	26.6%	17.7%
	L30	5	4.60	6.49	20.5%	9.0%	46.3%	25.3%	19.3%

Montero has a league-average strikeout rate, but he’s a bit too wild to have success on a consistent basis. In nine starts this season, he has a 4.59 SIERA with a walk rate of 11%. He checks into tonight’s game as a large underdog with the total set at 10.0 runs. Even before we look at implied run totals, we can tell that the Yankees will have one of the highest in the slate, which usually doesn’t bode well for the opposing pitcher. This is a bad matchup and he’s pitching in a bad ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Montero has more downside than upside against a talented Yankees’ offense.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luis Cessa
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$5,400	Salary:		$10,800
	Salary Rank:		12 of 22	Salary Rank:		19 of 22	Salary Rank:		16 of 22
	2016	9	4.42	4.35	16.1%	4.9%	43.2%	33.8%	16.2%
	2017	4	5.10	4.83	17.6%	11.3%	42.9%	28.6%	22.5%
	L30	1	6.67	6.75	20.0%	22.5%	40.9%	31.8%	18.2%

Cessa is making a spot start for the Yankees, after they placed Masahiro Tanaka on the DL. In 13 starts over the last two seasons, Cessa has a SIERA just under 5.00 with a strikeout rate of 17%. His command hasn’t been great this season and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that has to play in home run-friendly Yankee Stadium. The Mets may have unloaded some pieces before the trade deadline, but they still have a decent offense. On the season, they are ranked ninth in team wOBA and fifth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Cessa may not be the worst point-per-dollar option on the board, but there are better plays for both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Yankee Stadium and they also get to utilize the DH in this series. The cherry on top is a matchup against Luis Cessa, who is a below-average pitcher by all accounts. Since the start of last season, Cessa has allowed a .332 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .344 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. He has also given up a 37% hard contact rate to lefties, which bodes well for the Mets with the short porch in right field. Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto are two excellent one-off candidates tonight. Granderson spent many years playing in this ballpark and has good splits batting leadoff, while Conforto owns a .307 ISO against righties this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.355	0.338	0.261	32.8%	14.8%	21.9%	30.1%	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,000
2	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.268	0.278	0.141	26.5%	7.2%	13.8%	37.8%	SS	$2,100	3B/SS	$3,200	SS	$6,300
3	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.352	0.335	0.220	42.0%	5.4%	17.2%	35.0%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,900	LF	$9,600
4	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.427	0.398	0.307	40.9%	14.8%	22.0%	36.0%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,300	LF	$10,200
5	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.341	0.325	0.189	34.8%	6.0%	14.5%	36.1%	1B	$3,000	1B/3B	$4,200	3B	$8,000
6	Dominic Smith	LEFT	0.175	0.254	0.000	11.1%	0.0%	10.0%	55.6%	1B	$2,000	1B	$3,000	1B	$6,000
7	Travis d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.251	0.281	0.153	34.7%	4.1%	17.6%	40.0%	C	$2,000	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
8	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.329	0.256	0.258	30.4%	0.0%	25.0%	47.8%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,400
9	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.311	0.304	0.037	38.9%	15.6%	28.1%	38.9%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,100	LF	$6,000

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Yoenis Cespedes, Wilmer Flores

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

What do the Yankees do well? They draw a lot of walks (four batters with a 12%+ walk rate against righties this season) and they hit a lot of home runs.

What does Rafael Montero do poorly? He gives up too many walks and he allows too many home runs.

Matchups don’t always play out the way we expect them to, but it’s hard not to like the Yankees’ offense tonight. They have one of the highest implied run totals in the slate, they are playing at home in a good ballpark, and they draw a favorable matchup. Over the last two seasons, Montero has allowed a .328+ xwOBA and a 13% walk rate to both left and right-handed hitters. A Yankees’ stack is certainly viable in tournaments and there are a few batters that are viable in cash games as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.359	0.343	0.208	34.5%	12.4%	18.6%	40.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,600
2	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.382	0.332	0.224	30.2%	16.9%	16.9%	44.2%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,600
3	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.426	0.420	0.317	45.1%	15.4%	32.1%	36.4%	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,100	RF	$9,900
4	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.379	0.287	0.243	27.0%	3.6%	13.2%	40.3%	SS	$3,500	SS	$3,800	SS	$7,500
5	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.359	0.360	0.219	36.0%	7.7%	24.3%	44.4%	C	$4,000	C	$4,500	C	$8,800
6	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.324	0.345	0.184	28.6%	13.2%	22.2%	38.9%	3B	$3,800	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,500
7	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.327	0.320	0.135	25.6%	9.7%	14.1%	47.4%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,200
8	Garrett Cooper	RIGHT	0.343	0.259	0.150	35.3%	0.0%	19.0%	35.3%	1B	$2,500	1B	$2,900	1B	$5,700
9	Ronald Torreyes	RIGHT	0.282	0.246	0.088	19.9%	2.4%	13.7%	50.0%	2B	$2,400	2B/SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Todd Frazier

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

San Francisco at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
San Francisco								Miami
			Ty Blach							Adam Conley
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIA-140							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.258	0.307	33.1%	6.7%	11.6%	57.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.338	0.308	27.5%	7.6%	13.7%	45.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.323	0.308	31.0%	4.9%	12.6%	42.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.326	0.327	35.4%	10.9%	21.7%	36.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ty Blach
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$13,800
	Salary Rank:		7 of 22	Salary Rank:		9 of 22	Salary Rank:		8 of 22
	2016	2	4.46	1.06	16.1%	8.1%	57.8%	29.8%	25.5%
	2017	19	5.08	4.15	11.8%	5.1%	45.4%	31.8%	19.5%
	L30	5	4.82	3.00	13.9%	4.2%	41.2%	35.6%	15.3%

Blach used to rely on an elite ground ball rate and a low hard contact rate for his success. This season, the ground ball and hard contact rates are both right around the major league average. When you have a strikeout rate of only 12%, you are going to have a tough time finding consistency. He does have the benefit of pitching in AT&T Park for half of his starts, but he doesn’t have that luxury tonight. The Marlins are far from an elite offense against southpaws, but Blach doesn’t have enough strikeout potential to warrant consideration in DFS.

Quick Breakdown: Blach’s mistakes are magnified thanks to a low strikeout rate. He would need a near perfect start to exceed value, which I don’t want to count on.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Adam Conley
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$11,600
	Salary Rank:		9 of 22	Salary Rank:		15 of 22	Salary Rank:		13 of 22
	2016	25	4.64	3.85	21.2%	10.6%	38.2%	31.4%	20.5%
	2017	11	5.13	5.43	16.4%	9.0%	41.5%	36.9%	17.4%
	L30	5	4.80	3.48	15.7%	6.0%	44.9%	39.2%	16.7%

Conley has not been sharp this season, posting a 5.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16% and a walk rate of 9%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, especially to right-handed hitters. If you want to play Conley tonight, you do have a strong matchup to lean on. The Giants are ranked 28th in team wOBA against southpaws this season. With that said, they also have the sixth lowest strikeout rate. Even as a favorite pitching at home, I see more downside than upside for Conley.

Quick Breakdown: Dollar for dollar, Conley isn’t the worst play on the board, but he doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to pique my interest.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Do I want to play a pitcher with a 16% strikeout rate against a low-strikeout offense? Not really, but do I want to target hitters from an offense that is ranked 28th in team wOBA against southpaws? This is a game that I may end up watching from the sidelines with the exception of one batter, Buster Posey. He owns a .388 xwOBA and a 259 ISO against southpaws this season, while Adam Conley has allowed a .327 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Gorkys Hernandez	RIGHT	0.286	0.291	0.079	28.8%	9.0%	18.9%	39.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,100	CF	$6,000
2	Ryder Jones	LEFT	0.165	0.128	0.000	11.1%	0.0%	33.3%	44.4%	1B	$2,100	1B/3B	$2,000	3B	$3,900
3	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.309	0.353	0.161	39.6%	8.1%	13.8%	44.8%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,800
4	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.454	0.388	0.259	35.8%	16.3%	10.1%	35.8%	C	$3,300	1B/C	$3,600	C	$7,200
5	Nick Hundley	RIGHT	0.394	0.309	0.281	38.0%	7.1%	21.4%	42.9%	C	$2,600	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
6	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.292	0.305	0.154	30.7%	7.0%	15.8%	37.5%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,400
7	Jarrett Parker	LEFT	0.329	0.325	0.214	44.4%	0.0%	35.7%	44.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,800
8	Kelby Tomlinson	RIGHT	0.242	0.287	0.000	16.7%	13.1%	18.0%	35.1%	2B	$2,000	3B/SS	$3,000	2B	$6,000
9	Ty Blach	LEFT	0.176	0.267	0.063	15.4%	0.0%	27.8%	33.3%	P	$7,600	P	$6,900	P	$13,800

Elite Plays – Buster Posey

Secondary Plays – Gorkys Hernandez, Hunter Pence, Nick Hundley

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami

The Marlins are in a similar situation as the Giants. I don’t love their offense as a whole, but there are some viable one-off targets that we can look to in both cash games and tournaments. Ty Blach has held batters from both sides of the plate under a .310 xwOBA, but he also has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball (12%). Giancarlo Stanton continues to mash the baseball. He has one of the highest xwOBA’s (.416) and ISO’s (.360) against southpaws this season. Marcell Ozuna and J.T. Realmuto also have nice numbers against lefties and are both affordable punts at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.271	0.236	0.032	10.1%	1.5%	12.2%	67.6%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,000
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.403	0.416	0.360	36.8%	17.1%	17.1%	45.6%	OF	$5,000	OF	$5,700	RF	$11,200
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.337	0.349	0.153	31.1%	5.8%	17.5%	56.7%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,000
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.335	0.327	0.101	36.2%	11.0%	20.0%	53.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,500
5	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.417	0.401	0.253	34.9%	13.5%	13.5%	39.7%	C	$2,600	C	$3,300	C	$6,400
6	Mike Aviles	RIGHT	0.123	0.188	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	14.3%	60.0%	SS	$2,000	2B/OF	$2,400	IF/OF	$4,800
7	Tyler Moore	RIGHT	0.240	0.274	0.109	37.9%	6.1%	34.7%	51.7%	1B	$2,200	1B	$2,900	IF/OF	$5,600
8	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.329	0.332	0.105	27.3%	7.1%	11.9%	33.3%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,600	2B	$5,200
9	Adam Conley	LEFT	0.000	0.064	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	0.0%	P	$7,000	P	$5,800	P	$11,600

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, J.T. Realmuto

Secondary Plays – Marcell Ozuna

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit at Texas – 8:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Detroit								Texas
			Michael Fulmer							Martin Perez
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TEX-110							11.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.279	0.313	32.4%	6.8%	18.3%	47.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.274	0.288	23.2%	8.7%	20.6%	55.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.280	0.284	27.9%	5.2%	19.7%	51.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.353	0.368	34.4%	8.5%	11.3%	49.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Michael Fulmer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$15,300
	Salary Rank:		4 of 22	Salary Rank:		7 of 22	Salary Rank:		6 of 22
	2016	26	4.03	3.06	20.4%	6.5%	49.1%	30.4%	19.2%
	2017	21	4.32	3.59	17.5%	5.4%	49.7%	29.8%	17.4%
	L30	4	4.37	5.47	15.2%	4.8%	51.2%	36.6%	17.1%

Fulmer missed two weeks with an elbow injury that was clearly bothering him. In his four starts before being placed on the DL, he had a 5.47 ERA with a strikeout rate of only 15%. The declining strikeout rate has been an issue for a while now, as is his low BABIP, specifically against left-handed hitters. There are already red flags with Fulmer and that’s before we factor in his matchup against the Rangers. It is expected to be hot and humid in Arlington once again and the total for the game is set at 11.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Bad form, bad matchup, bad ballpark. Thanks, but no thanks.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Martin Perez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$12,900
	Salary Rank:		16 of 22	Salary Rank:		11 of 22	Salary Rank:		10 of 22
	2016	33	5.11	4.39	12.1%	8.9%	53.2%	30.7%	15.9%
	2017	22	5.04	5.18	14.7%	8.0%	45.5%	35.2%	14.9%
	L30	5	5.11	7.20	12.5%	5.5%	44.7%	34.0%	17.5%

I have yet to click on Perez’s name when building lineups this season, unless it was to click the “x” next to his name if he somehow made one of my dummy lineups. In 22 starts, he has a SIERA over 5.00 with a strikeout rate of only 15%. He no longer has an elite ground ball rate, which has led to more medium and hard contact this season. As mentioned earlier, hot and humid weather is expected tonight, which automatically favors the hitters over the pitchers. The final nail in the coffin is the fact that Perez will likely face eight or nine right-handed hitters in the Tigers’ lineup tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Hard-hitting offense against a pitcher that gives up hard contact. Oh, and these are some of the best hitting conditions on the schedule.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

There are a lot of reasons to like the Tigers tonight and a few of the smart people here on RotoGrinders have them as their favorite sneaky stack of the slate. Detroit is playing in a good ballpark, the ball should carry well in these conditions, and Martin Perez represents one of the top matchups in the slate. Since the start of last season, Perez has allowed a .368 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. You can use the Tigers as one-offs, as mini-stacks, or you can load up the full stack in tournaments. Any exposure to the Tigers’ offense tonight is fine by me.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.340	0.358	0.235	44.6%	7.6%	12.0%	24.3%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,400	2B	$8,700
2	Mikie Mahtook	RIGHT	0.328	0.344	0.207	47.2%	3.1%	20.8%	38.9%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,500
3	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.443	0.372	0.306	43.3%	9.4%	18.8%	44.8%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,500	LF	$8,700
4	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.366	0.416	0.092	43.9%	15.6%	21.1%	40.4%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,900
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.309	0.284	0.074	28.6%	8.0%	12.5%	57.1%	C	$2,400	1B	$3,000	1B	$6,000
6	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.393	0.412	0.353	47.6%	7.3%	18.2%	41.5%	3B	$3,300	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,100
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.431	0.438	0.324	43.1%	8.5%	19.5%	32.8%	C	$2,500	C	$3,200	C	$6,400
8	Andrew Romine	LEFT	0.283	0.258	0.104	47.2%	5.8%	25.0%	60.0%	OF	$2,300	2B/OF	$3,100	IF/OF	$6,000
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.281	0.282	0.075	20.3%	4.2%	5.6%	49.2%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,300

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Mikie Mahtook, Nick Castellanos, James McCann

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas

This is a wild statistic – every single batter in the Rangers’ projected lineup has an ISO of at least .166 against right-handed pitching this season. Basically, they rack up extra-base hits left and right. Tonight’s matchup against Michael Fulmer doesn’t look great if you look solely at his splits, but we have to take all of the factors into account. He has been in bad form recently, he is pitching on the road in good hitting conditions, and we’ve seen a major decline in his strikeout rate. I always struggle to know which Rangers to include in my stack because their offense is so loaded, but there are quite a few viable plays here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Shin-soo Choo	LEFT	0.341	0.380	0.166	40.1%	13.9%	20.6%	45.4%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,600
2	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.355	0.296	0.183	29.1%	5.3%	17.2%	48.5%	SS	$4,200	SS	$4,800	SS	$9,200
3	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.339	0.336	0.200	33.7%	11.0%	19.0%	39.8%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,800
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.376	0.341	0.249	37.0%	8.1%	12.4%	49.1%	3B	$4,300	3B	$4,700	3B	$9,300
5	Joey Gallo	LEFT	0.364	0.359	0.356	44.6%	13.8%	35.4%	26.4%	1B	$3,600	1B/3B	$4,800	IF/OF	$9,200
6	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.350	0.338	0.227	42.6%	8.9%	30.1%	40.0%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,800
7	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.304	0.310	0.241	39.0%	3.9%	24.4%	38.1%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,300	2B	$6,600
8	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.296	0.313	0.217	38.2%	9.1%	32.4%	35.2%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,900
9	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.319	0.318	0.298	36.3%	6.9%	26.9%	38.0%	C	$2,400	C	$3,700	C	$7,200

MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 14th

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Stackability Rating System:

Cleveland at Boston – 6:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana, Bradley Zimmer

Stackability – GREEN

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Hanley Ramirez, Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Tampa Bay at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson, Lucas Duda, Evan Longoria, Logan Morrison, Steve Souza (DK)

Secondary Plays – Steve Souza (FD), Brad Miller

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales, Steve Pearce, Ryan Goins

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at NY Yankees – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Yoenis Cespedes, Wilmer Flores

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Todd Frazier

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

San Francisco at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Buster Posey

Secondary Plays – Gorkys Hernandez, Hunter Pence, Nick Hundley

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, J.T. Realmuto

Secondary Plays – Marcell Ozuna

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit at Texas – 8:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Mikie Mahtook, Nick Castellanos, James McCann

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre, Joey Gallo (Cash)

Stackability – YELLOW

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