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MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 24th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-07-25 03:09:53

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Chicago Cubs
whitesoxmlb Miguel Gonzalez cubsmlb Kyle Hendricks
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-270 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.326 31.7% 8.0% 16.2% 39.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.276 0.293 27.7% 6.5% 21.5% 46.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.322 0.326 29.2% 6.0% 14.6% 39.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.256 0.268 29.1% 6.5% 22.6% 50.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Miguel Gonzalez
miguel-gonzalez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,100 Salary:
Salary Rank: 18 of 26 Salary Rank: 24 of 26 Salary Rank: of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 23 4.61 3.73 16.8% 6.2% 40.1% 28.6% 18.1%
2017 14 5.48 4.89 13.3% 8.2% 38.4% 33.1% 15.7%
L30 1 5.97 1.50 19.2% 19.2% 60.0% 33.3% 13.3%

We only have one day game on the schedule, so if you are only playing the main slate, feel free to scroll down to the next game. Gonzalez is having a down season in 2017, which isn’t great considering the fact that he was a below-average pitcher to begin with. In 14 starts, he owns a 5.48 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13%. He is an easy fade today against the Cubs, who are finally starting to show some signs of life at the plate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gonzalez in all formats as a large underdog pitching on the road.

Kyle Hendricks
kyle-hendricks-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $7,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 8 of 26 Salary Rank: 10 of 26 Salary Rank: of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.70 2.13 22.8% 5.9% 48.4% 25.8% 25.1%
2017 11 4.35 4.09 20.2% 8.3% 51.1% 36.3% 22.4%

Hendricks will be making his first start in a month and a half after missing time with a hand injury. He only threw 63 pitches in his last rehab start, so we can expect him to be on some sort of a pitch count today. Even before the injury, he wasn’t a pitcher that would throw 100+ pitches often. He does draw a favorable matchup against the White Sox, but I’m worried about rust being an issue here. Seeing as how there are 13 games in the all-day slate, we can find safer options at pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: Hendricks draws a favorable matchup, but might not pitch deep into this game. I will be taking a wait and see approach.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are one of the worst offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching and their lineup is even worse since trading away Todd Frazier. They are huge underdogs today against Kyle Hendricks, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate in the last two seasons. Chicago’s hitters can be avoided in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Alen Hanson SWITCH 0.244 0.244 0.082 22.2% 5.8% 16.3% 46.2% 2B $2,000 2B/OF $3,100 N/A N/A
2 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.324 0.336 0.125 30.4% 6.6% 11.1% 52.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.333 0.342 0.206 38.7% 4.9% 16.1% 45.7% 1B $3,500 1B $4,000 N/A N/A
4 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.344 0.365 0.205 33.7% 4.7% 21.3% 51.6% OF $3,100 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
5 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.311 0.290 0.262 45.5% 3.6% 44.6% 34.3% 3B $2,700 1B/3B $3,300 N/A N/A
6 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.231 0.000 100.0% 33.3% 0.0% 50.0% 2B $2,400 2B/3B $3,800 N/A N/A
7 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.252 0.270 0.137 30.1% 3.2% 26.7% 51.7% SS $2,900 SS $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.289 0.284 0.043 13.9% 9.3% 12.4% 44.0% C $2,200 C $2,500 N/A N/A
9 Miguel Gonzalez RIGHT 0.000 0.064 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% P $6,500 P $5,100 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs’ offense has come alive recently and they have won eight of their last ten games to take a small lead in their division. The streak should continue today, as they square off against the hittable Miguel Gonzalez, who not only has a low strikeout rate (13%), but has allowed a .326 xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Kyle Schwarber has one of the biggest gaps in baseball between his wOBA (.314) and his xwOBA (.363) against right-handed pitching. Expect some positive regression for Schwarber moving forward.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.320 0.336 0.160 35.6% 11.6% 13.1% 53.7% OF $3,000 2B/OF $3,900 N/A N/A
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.374 0.320 0.238 29.3% 12.1% 21.0% 37.8% 3B $3,700 3B $5,000 N/A N/A
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.358 0.390 0.230 31.6% 13.6% 12.6% 36.9% 1B $4,100 1B $5,100 N/A N/A
4 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.334 0.290 0.203 34.9% 6.4% 29.4% 50.4% C $3,200 C $4,100 N/A N/A
5 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.314 0.363 0.253 33.8% 12.4% 27.1% 40.9% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
6 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.305 0.279 0.188 30.8% 5.0% 22.2% 41.5% SS $2,400 SS $3,200 N/A N/A
7 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.322 0.331 0.144 27.4% 8.6% 11.8% 47.9% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
8 Jon Jay LEFT 0.333 0.300 0.105 25.5% 8.6% 20.9% 51.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
9 Kyle Hendricks RIGHT 0.067 0.103 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 83.3% P $8,400 P $7,600 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Houston at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Houston Philadelphia
houstonmlb Brad Peacock philadelphiamlb Vince Velasquez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-140 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.288 0.286 32.4% 12.6% 28.4% 32.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.339 0.322 32.5% 9.9% 25.8% 38.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.255 0.259 23.4% 12.5% 29.9% 49.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.327 0.319 35.3% 7.1% 27.0% 36.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brad Peacock
brad-peacock-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $11,500 Salary: $22,400
Salary Rank: 4 of 26 Salary Rank: 3 of 26 Salary Rank: 3 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.55 3.69 22.1% 11.0% 41.2% 28.2% 10.6%
2017 10 3.78 2.49 32.4% 13.2% 41.6% 27.3% 28.6%
L30 4 4.59 1.88 26.5% 13.7% 37.7% 21.3% 32.8%

Peacock is having a breakout season for the Astros, posting a 3.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32%. While those numbers are impressive, there are some red flags, at least for a pitcher at his current price point. He has a 13% walk rate on the season and he has a SIERA close to 5.00 in his last four starts. Eventually, those walks are going to catch up to him. It might not be tonight, but it’s worth noting moving forward. Given the big price difference, Peacock is a much better play on FanDuel ($8,900) than he is on DraftKings ($11,500).

Quick Breakdown: Peacock is a viable tournament play, but there are better options in cash games.

Vince Velasquez
vincent-velasquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 15 of 26 Salary Rank: 14 of 26 Salary Rank: 13 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.62 4.12 27.6% 8.2% 34.8% 32.6% 18.4%
2017 11 4.23 5.14 23.7% 9.1% 43.4% 36.9% 13.8%
L30 1 3.62 1.50 19.1% 4.8% 62.5% 25.0% 18.8%

Velasquez pitched well in his first start back, but is still a wildcard when it comes to DFS. He has an above-average strikeout rate, but he can struggle with his command at times. To make matters worse, he has to face the best offense in baseball tonight. The Astros are ranked first in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. The risk outweighs the upside with Velasquez tonight, especially in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Velasquez can be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros see a ballpark bump playing in Citizens Bank Park and they draw a decent matchup against Vince Velasquez, who was nearly moved to the bullpen earlier this season. Velasquez isn’t particularly great against left or right-handed hitters and he gives up a fair share of hard contact to batters from both sides of the plate. The Astros’ stack is firmly in play for tournaments and the likes of George Springer and Jose Altuve are two of the top plays on the board.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.391 0.375 0.273 39.0% 9.1% 22.1% 50.0% OF $4,200 OF $5,400 RF $10,500
2 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.410 0.348 0.195 27.9% 8.8% 12.3% 49.6% 2B $4,100 2B $5,200 2B $10,000
3 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.373 0.347 0.226 35.0% 7.9% 13.1% 32.7% OF $3,000 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
4 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.362 0.339 0.205 37.2% 1.7% 10.3% 41.9% 1B $3,500 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
5 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.387 0.351 0.231 34.7% 6.9% 15.0% 34.7% C $2,800 C $4,300 C $8,400
6 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.420 0.326 0.271 33.3% 10.8% 20.6% 43.6% SS $3,700 3B/OF $4,400 1B $8,700
7 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.303 0.332 0.141 31.4% 9.4% 17.2% 42.2% 3B $3,200 3B $4,300 3B $8,400
8 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.300 0.278 0.088 18.0% 7.4% 13.0% 57.5% OF $2,300 OF $3,100 LF $6,000
9 Brad Peacock RIGHT 0.692 0.700 0.000 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% P $8,900 P $11,500 P $22,400

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve

Secondary Plays – Josh Reddick, Yuli Gurriel, Evan Gattis, Marwin Gonzalez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia

The Phillies have one of the worst offenses in baseball and they are facing a high-strikeout pitcher in Brad Peacock. In a 12 game slate, we can cross a few offenses off our list and the Phillies are one of them. Over the last two seasons, Peacock has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.330 0.301 0.093 19.7% 8.9% 21.5% 47.7% 2B $3,200 2B $4,000 2B $7,800
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.317 0.297 0.181 30.9% 8.0% 18.9% 37.6% SS $2,900 SS $4,000 SS $7,600
3 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.371 0.301 0.120 32.9% 4.1% 23.5% 56.5% OF $2,600 2B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
4 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.288 0.322 0.157 27.7% 6.9% 13.4% 47.7% 3B $3,200 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
5 Nick Williams LEFT 0.354 0.336 0.220 47.4% 5.4% 25.0% 47.4% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 LF $6,800
6 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.314 0.314 0.162 39.3% 6.3% 22.8% 46.6% 1B $2,900 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
7 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.295 0.286 0.152 29.8% 5.6% 23.7% 44.4% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
8 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.347 0.329 0.139 37.2% 14.7% 24.8% 60.3% C $2,700 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 Vince Velasquez RIGHT 0.319 0.162 0.000 10.0% 0.0% 9.1% 55.6% P $7,000 P $6,700 P $13,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Oakland at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Oakland Toronto
oaklandmlb Chris Smith torontomlb Francisco Liriano
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-152 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.272 0.322 25.0% 15.9% 20.6% 42.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.296 31.0% 7.4% 24.0% 58.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.219 0.257 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.352 0.335 34.7% 12.9% 21.5% 47.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Smith
chris-smith-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $9,200
Salary Rank: 24 of 26 Salary Rank: 15 of 26 Salary Rank: 24 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 3.66 2.92 29.0% 13.0% 45.6% 25.9% 17.2%
2017 2 4.51 2.77 15.7% 5.9% 50.0% 30.0% 17.5%
L30 2 4.51 2.77 15.7% 5.9% 50.0% 30.0% 17.5%

Smith will be making his third start of the season tonight. He had decent numbers in the minors this season, but he’s never been an elite strikeout pitcher at any level. When it comes to inexperienced pitchers, I like to lean on Vegas. Smith becomes an easy fade at that point, as he is a large underdog against Francisco Liriano. If that’s not a red flag, I’m not sure what is.

Quick Breakdown: As an underdog on the road facing a talented offense, Smith is an easy fade in all formats.

Francisco Liriano
francisco-liriano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 21 of 26 Salary Rank: 17 of 26 Salary Rank: 16 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.38 4.69 23.0% 11.6% 52.0% 34.8% 19.4%
2017 15 5.08 6.04 19.9% 12.1% 44.3% 32.3% 14.8%
L30 5 5.64 7.30 13.5% 9.9% 42.2% 31.8% 21.2%

Liriano used to be one of the most frustrating pitchers in baseball, but that was back when he was talented enough that we actually considered targeting him in DFS. These days, the risk outweighs the reward, which leads to an easy fade. In 15 starts this season, Liriano owns a 5.08 SIERA with a below-average strikeout rate and a walk rate of 12%. The good news is that he gets to face a high-strikeout A’s offense that is one of the worst in baseball against the slider. This season, Liriano has thrown his slider 33% of the time.

Quick Breakdown: Liriano is a very intriguing GPP play, but we should never trust him in a cash game setting.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Toronto and they draw one of the best matchups on the board. Even though their numbers as a whole aren’t great against left-handed pitching, there are a number of intriguing one-off targets here. I actually don’t mind an A’s stack in large-field tournaments, as Francisco Liriano is prone to giving up big innings. Khris Davis is the highlighted play here. He has a massive difference between his wOBA (.300) and his xwOBA (.393) against southpaws this season, which suggests some positive regression moving forward.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.253 0.248 0.078 20.0% 9.9% 19.7% 46.9% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
2 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.269 0.252 0.053 30.8% 20.8% 25.0% 46.2% SS $2,500 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
3 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.424 0.351 0.313 34.7% 3.0% 22.7% 36.7% 3B $2,600 1B/3B $2,900 3B $5,600
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.300 0.391 0.169 54.1% 17.8% 31.5% 43.2% OF $4,100 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
5 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.284 0.288 0.118 30.6% 8.1% 25.7% 36.7% 2B $2,800 2B $3,400 2B $6,800
6 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.112 0.185 0.000 40.0% 7.1% 57.1% 20.0% 3B $2,400 3B $2,000 3B $3,900
7 Adam Rosales RIGHT 0.309 0.258 0.132 28.2% 8.3% 26.7% 31.6% SS $2,000 SS $2,200 3B $4,000
8 Josh Phegley RIGHT 0.265 0.288 0.173 31.0% 0.0% 19.2% 33.3% C $2,200 C $2,300 C $4,500
9 Jaycob Brugman LEFT 0.112 0.158 0.000 12.5% 7.1% 35.7% 57.1% OF $2,200 OF $2,000 CF $3,900

Elite Plays – Ryon Healy, Khris Davis

Secondary Plays – Rajai Davis, Marcus Semien, Jed Lowrie

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays draw a boom or bust matchup against Chris Smith, who is only making his third career major league start. They come into this game as sizable favorites and they have a fairly high implied run total. In terms of stacking options, they aren’t my favorite on the board, but I do like a number of their hitters as cash game or one-off GPP targets. Each of the first five batters in this lineup has a .350+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.351 0.348 0.202 33.9% 13.7% 22.5% 32.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.348 0.347 0.160 30.6% 15.2% 21.2% 53.7% C $2,600 C $3,100 C $6,000
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.353 0.343 0.204 32.4% 14.0% 24.4% 42.9% 3B $3,300 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.365 0.394 0.281 39.0% 9.6% 22.6% 33.5% 1B $3,700 1B $5,200 1B $10,000
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.303 0.360 0.195 38.0% 6.5% 22.3% 47.7% 1B $3,000 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
6 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.341 0.323 0.154 34.2% 6.2% 20.4% 45.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,700 1B $7,200
7 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.276 0.310 0.126 28.5% 5.5% 15.1% 44.5% OF $2,400 OF $2,800 CF $5,600
8 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.269 0.292 0.135 30.0% 7.9% 18.0% 44.9% 2B $2,200 2B/SS $2,500 2B $4,800
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.229 0.243 0.095 18.3% 2.0% 15.2% 48.8% SS $2,100 2B/3B $2,000 2B $4,000

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Baltimore Tampa Bay
baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman tampabaymlb Blake Snell
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -125 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.326 33.6% 8.0% 21.0% 38.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.293 0.295 32.4% 13.6% 27.2% 54.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.358 0.340 30.8% 7.0% 22.1% 47.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.337 33.9% 13.5% 21.8% 34.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 10 of 26 Salary Rank: 11 of 26 Salary Rank: 10 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.81 3.61 23.0% 6.2% 44.1% 31.1% 18.3%
2017 21 4.74 6.11 19.6% 9.4% 42.3% 33.5% 17.9%
L30 6 3.14 4.94 31.6% 6.8% 42.5% 32.1% 19.8%

Gausman is desperately trying to turn his season around. After a promising 2016 campaign, his 2017 results have been surprising to everyone. He seems to be trending in the right direction over the last month of play though. During that stretch, he has a 3.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 32% in six starts. He makes sense as a low-owned tournament play tonight against the Rays, who have the fourth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman is still too risky for cash games, but he’s viable in tournaments given his recent form and matchup.

Blake Snell
blake-snell-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 20 of 26 Salary Rank: 13 of 26 Salary Rank: 12 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 4.53 3.54 24.4% 12.7% 36.5% 31.4% 22.2%
2017 11 5.45 4.98 20.2% 14.7% 39.6% 37.2% 19.5%
L30 3 5.43 5.79 27.0% 19.1% 31.3% 44.1% 20.6%

Snell is one of those pitchers that has showed some promise, so everyone wants him to be good. It’s hard to balance the difference between a pitcher having talent and a pitcher having an actual track record when it comes to DFS. The results just haven’t been there for Snell, even after being called back up from the minors a few weeks ago. Overall, he owns a 5.45 SIERA with a 15% walk rate and a 37% hard contact rate in 11 starts this season.

Quick Breakdown: The Orioles struggle against southpaws and Snell is a small favorite, but Snell remains a deep GPP play at best.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles draw a decent matchup tonight against Blake Snell, who has struggled with his command at the major league level. In addition to his 15% walk rate, Snell has allowed a .337 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo have really struggled against lefties, but Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, and Welington Castillo all own a .354+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.290 0.278 0.125 27.8% 6.6% 23.6% 38.0% OF $3,700 OF $4,400 CF $8,400
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.333 0.394 0.227 51.3% 9.3% 18.5% 45.5% 3B $3,500 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.389 0.388 0.283 38.6% 8.7% 22.3% 42.9% 2B $3,700 2B $4,500 2B $8,700
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.287 0.263 0.126 29.0% 6.4% 24.5% 42.1% OF $3,600 OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.324 0.344 0.169 32.7% 10.4% 37.5% 32.7% 1B $3,400 1B $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
6 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.302 0.346 0.165 34.7% 4.0% 24.8% 50.0% OF $2,900 1B/OF $3,700 1B $7,200
7 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.335 0.357 0.138 47.5% 3.3% 30.0% 27.5% C $2,700 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Ruben Tejada RIGHT 0.237 0.298 0.050 37.5% 0.0% 20.0% 37.5% SS $2,600 3B/SS $2,900 SS $5,600
9 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.289 0.266 0.107 30.9% 5.5% 19.8% 34.4% OF $2,400 OF $3,100 RF $6,000

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini, Welington Castillo

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Even though I will have a share or two of Kevin Gausman in tournaments, I will also have some exposure to the Rays’ offense. Over the last two seasons, Gausman has allowed a .326 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .340 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. He’s also a pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact and has the potential to get shelled, which always makes the opposing offense a little more appealing when it comes to a stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.393 0.389 0.303 39.5% 12.5% 28.6% 40.0% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
2 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.366 0.330 0.233 37.5% 5.8% 21.0% 37.8% OF $3,000 OF $4,000 LF $7,800
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.343 0.314 0.186 31.7% 4.9% 14.7% 43.2% 3B $3,500 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.397 0.409 0.338 44.6% 14.7% 21.9% 32.0% 1B $3,500 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
5 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.255 0.349 0.200 48.0% 5.9% 17.6% 48.0% C $2,700 C $3,300 C $6,400
6 Brad Miller LEFT 0.293 0.317 0.092 34.9% 20.8% 25.3% 56.6% 2B $2,900 2B $3,300 SS $6,400
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.319 0.312 0.168 46.7% 5.4% 32.7% 47.0% SS $2,600 SS $2,500 SS $4,800
8 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.325 0.263 0.080 18.3% 11.7% 15.6% 54.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
9 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.255 0.274 0.051 25.6% 1.0% 16.2% 51.9% SS $2,300 SS $2,600 SS $5,100

Elite Plays – Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Steve Souza, Corey Dickerson, Evan Longoria, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – YELLOW

Kansas City at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Kansas City Detroit
kansascitymlb Jason Hammel detroitmlb Justin Verlander
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-147 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.323 0.333 31.1% 9.2% 20.0% 36.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.287 0.292 29.4% 9.7% 28.4% 30.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.313 0.330 30.6% 6.0% 18.9% 42.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.293 0.311 34.0% 6.1% 23.0% 36.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jason Hammel
jason-hammel-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 11 of 26 Salary Rank: 12 of 26 Salary Rank: 11 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.28 3.83 20.8% 7.7% 42.1% 32.5% 18.5%
2017 19 4.88 4.81 17.4% 7.3% 37.0% 28.5% 17.2%
L30 5 4.83 4.76 18.8% 8.6% 39.1% 26.9% 15.1%

Hammel isn’t as bad as people want him to be, but he’s not exactly a standout fantasy option either. He doesn’t have a high enough strikeout rate, which limits his upside. He draws a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Tigers, who have more talent than their season long numbers suggest. I could go on, but he’s Jason Hammel and he’s pitching on the road. Do I really need to say more?

Quick Breakdown: Hammel is an easy fade in all formats.

Justin Verlander
justin-verlander-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $8,700 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 5 of 26 Salary Rank: 6 of 26 Salary Rank: 6 of 26
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.42 3.04 28.1% 6.3% 33.7% 28.9% 19.7%
2017 20 4.77 4.54 21.5% 10.6% 34.0% 36.7% 16.6%
L30 6 4.23 4.63 23.4% 8.4% 33.0% 32.4% 21.9%

Verlander has shown some signs of life in his last six starts, posting a 4.23 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. Those numbers don’t leap off the page at us, but they are significantly better than his numbers on the season. I don’t want to trust Verlander tonight, but his track record against the Royals is hard to ignore. In nearly 500 plate appearances, the current roster of the Royals has a .296 wOBA with a strikeout rate close to 20%. Verlander is a large favorite, he’s cheap, and his ownership should be reasonable.

Quick Breakdown: Verlander is viable as an SP2 in tournaments and potentially in cash games as well.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Justin Verlander is having a down season, but the Royals still have one of the lowest implied run totals in the slate. Their offense has been heating up recently, but that may have something to due with the insane weather in Kansas City over the last week of play. I will be fading the Royals tonight, with the exception of Salvador Perez. He is the one Royals’ hitter that has a good track record against Verlander, going 25-for-61 with 11 extra-base hits in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.338 0.316 0.181 31.9% 3.9% 12.4% 37.6% 2B $3,300 2B $4,400 IF/OF $8,400
2 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.330 0.346 0.180 33.3% 10.1% 25.1% 40.2% OF $3,300 OF $3,300 RF $6,600
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.351 0.320 0.153 29.4% 9.0% 19.1% 43.7% OF $3,200 OF $3,200 CF $6,400
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.364 0.370 0.182 32.5% 9.5% 17.6% 50.3% 1B $3,600 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.353 0.351 0.244 39.3% 3.0% 19.3% 29.8% C $3,100 C $4,100 C $8,000
6 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.361 0.354 0.282 35.8% 5.1% 16.3% 31.8% 3B $3,600 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
7 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.236 0.239 0.079 25.6% 1.8% 19.5% 40.7% SS $2,700 SS $3,200 SS $6,300
8 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.252 0.278 0.189 31.1% 8.3% 34.4% 34.0% OF $2,700 OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
9 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.256 0.301 0.126 32.7% 8.3% 22.7% 40.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 LF $6,800

Elite Plays – Salvador Perez (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

The Tigers are an offense that lets us down more often than not, but it’s hard not to like their upside tonight against Jason Hammel. He has a low strikeout rate and he isn’t particularly effective against left or right-handed hitters. The problem from a stacking standpoint is that Hammel doesn’t get shelled very often. In his last nine starts, he has only allowed more than three runs one time. Rather than stacking Detroit, I will attack this offense by using one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.308 0.311 0.122 34.8% 10.0% 12.6% 32.4% 2B $3,600 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
2 Alex Avila LEFT 0.407 0.453 0.250 56.2% 16.8% 29.6% 34.7% C $2,300 1B/C $3,100 C $6,000
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.356 0.353 0.228 41.8% 11.8% 26.6% 35.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
4 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.320 0.406 0.186 46.8% 10.8% 18.6% 40.4% 1B $3,900 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
5 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.308 0.345 0.153 47.2% 7.9% 26.2% 40.1% 3B $3,000 3B $4,500 3B $8,800
6 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.300 0.363 0.117 42.9% 9.6% 13.1% 40.0% C $3,000 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
7 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.304 0.273 0.136 36.1% 2.4% 25.0% 46.7% OF $2,700 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
8 Alex Presley LEFT 0.355 0.333 0.116 44.6% 9.1% 18.2% 50.9% OF $2,900 OF $2,900 LF $5,700
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.264 0.241 0.092 28.5% 4.1% 15.7% 54.0% SS $2,700 SS $3,300 SS $6,600

Elite Plays – Alex Avila, Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Justin Upton, Nick Castellanos, Victor Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious