MLB Grind Down: Monday, July 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-07-10 01:56:06

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 4:05 PM ET

NY Yankees								Baltimore
			CC Sabathia							Jimmy Yacabonis
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-165							10.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.311	0.273	19.2%	79.2	22.8%	53.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.496	0.475	37.5%	89.3	14.3%	42.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.308	0.307	30.5%	85.3	17.4%	40.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.385	0.420	46.2%	88.4	21.1%	30.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

CC Sabathia
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,000	Salary:			$8,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			8 of 22	Salary Rank:			9 of 22	Salary Rank:
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	27	4.45	3.69	19.3%	8.0%	49.9%	27.2%	24.1%	90.9	8.9%
	2018	16	4.33	3.02	18.5%	6.3%	42.9%	28.6%	26.4%	90.1	10.4%
	L14	5	4.17	1.99	19.6%	6.5%	43.8%	28.1%	27.1%	90.5	11.5%

Welcome back to another Monday edition of the MLB Grind Down. I hope everyone had a fantastic weekend. I spend most of mine in a very small town in Southern Utah. Luckily, my grandmother has wifi or else it would have been a tough weekend for yours truly. Once you step outside of that wifi range, good luck finding a cell signal. While it can be nice to disconnect once in a while, having the option to hop right back in is important. Enough about me, let’s get into the baseball slate. There are two sets of double-headers today and all sites have left these games off of their main slates. For our purposes, we will cover the first game of each double-header, as they are included in the early-only slates on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Sabathia is a pitcher that I have a ton of respect for. He used to be an ace that could dominate opponents with a high strikeout rate. As Father Time started to catch up to him, he started to get hit hard. There were a couple of seasons when I figured his career was nearly over. He fought his way through it and re-invented himself as a pitcher. Rather than trying to overpower lineups, he focuses on hitting his spot and inducing soft contact. This has extended his career and turned him into a very useful starter once again. One team that he seemingly has trouble with is the Orioles. Their current roster has a .331 wOBA with only 71 strikeouts in 365 plate appearances against him. Add in the fact that he’s pitching on the road in a ballpark that favors right-handed power (see the graph above) and he becomes one of the least intriguing options in the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: I typically love using Sabathia in these small slates, but will be focusing on the next game for my pitching targets.

Jimmy Yacabonis
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$4,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			22 of 22	Salary Rank:			22 of 22	Salary Rank:
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	0	6.67	4.35	8.9%	15.6%	48.5%	32.4%	27.9%	95.4	5.3%
	2018	1	5.96	8.53	18.2%	18.2%	35.0%	42.9%	28.6%	93.8	9.1%
	L14	1	3.38	4.50	26.3%	5.3%	33.3%	30.8%	23.1%	93.6	11.9%

Yacabonis sounds like one of those fancy millennial drinks that has all the weird seeds in it. My wife bought one the other day and it legitimately smelled like vinegar. I will never understand why people pay so much for items that taste terrible (and yes, that includes my wife). Give me something loaded with sugar and I’ll be happy. Much like those fancy drinks that cost six dollars a bottle, I have no interest in Yacabonis. While he posted an FIP under 4.00 at the Triple-A level this season, he only struck out 20% of the batters that he faced. He’ll have his toughest matchup to date, as he takes on the Yankees in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Yacabonis is a large underdog in a game that features a total of 10.0 runs. All three of the other pitchers in the early slate are better options.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The question isn’t whether or not we like the Yankees’ offense, it’s how many we can fit into our lineups. In a perfect world, I would play the maximum amount of Yankees’ hitters (four on FanDuel and five on DraftKings), but that’s hard to do given the salary cap restraints. If you don’t play Jimmy Yacabonis and you don’t play any of the relievers, you can’t afford to stack the Yankees. From that point, we are basically forced to pick and choose our spots. I don’t have a big preference between the individual batters, but strictly from a splits perspective, Aaron Judge (.401 xwOBA), Aaron Hicks (.361 xwOBA), Didi Gregorius (.349 xwOBA), and Miguel Andujar (.352 xwOBA) have the best numbers against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Didi Gregorius, Miguel Andujar

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Giancarlo Stanton, Greg Bird

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

Do I like the Orioles’ offense as much as the Yankees’ offense in this game? Absolutely not. They aren’t nearly as talented and they draw the tougher matchup of the two teams. With that said, the Orioles are a significantly better stack because they are dirt cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings. You can afford to play any two pitchers you’d like in the early slate and stack the Orioles. By process of elimination, that means that you will be playing the two pitchers from the Phillies/Mets game, as you don’t ever want to stack against the pitcher that you roster. While CC Sabathia has been tough on hitters from both sides of the plate, Manny Machado (20-for-53 for 11 extra-base hits) and Adam Jones (24-for-81 with 11 extra-base hits) both have great BvP numbers against him. Danny Valencia and Tim Beckham are also intriguing given their price points, their batting order, and their numbers against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Tim Beckham, Adam Jones, Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Mark Trumbo, Jonathan Schoop, Danny Valencia, Trey Mancini

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia at NY Mets – 4:10 PM ET

Philadelphia								NY Mets
			Zach Eflin							Zack Wheeler
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-102							8.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.315	0.340	25.3%	87.7	24.6%	31.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.325	0.355	38.7%	87.7	25.0%	35.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.251	0.260	25.7%	84.9	24.2%	41.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.277	0.293	22.0%	84.0	20.5%	50.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zach Eflin
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,900	Salary:			$9,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			4 of 22	Salary Rank:			5 of 22	Salary Rank:
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	11	5.08	6.16	12.5%	4.3%	44.1%	33.3%	16.7%	92.7	7.3%
	2018	11	3.63	2.97	24.3%	5.4%	37.1%	25.6%	23.3%	94.2	10.8%
	L14	5	3.09	2.10	27.8%	4.4%	44.0%	22.4%	27.6%	94.0	12.3%

I may have already disclosed my plan for the early slate, but if you didn’t catch on, here you go — I’ll be playing one of the two pitchers in this game on FanDuel and both of them on DraftKings. I will be stacking the Orioles and working in as many Yankees’ hitters as I can afford. It’s a simple strategy for a two-game slate. Eflin is having a career year for the Phillies. In 11 starts, he has a 3.63 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. His velocity is up, he is generating more swings and misses, and he has been very tough on right-handed hitters (.260 xwOBA allowed). The active roster for New York doesn’t really allow them to roll out a left-handed heavy lineup, which should play right into the hands of Eflin.

Quick Breakdown: Eflin is my favorite pitcher of the early slate and an elite play in all formats.

Zack Wheeler
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,300	Salary:			$7,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			7 of 22	Salary Rank:			12 of 22	Salary Rank:
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	17	4.64	5.21	21.0%	10.4%	47.5%	32.8%	18.3%	94.6	9.1%
	2018	16	4.13	4.36	22.5%	8.6%	44.4%	28.7%	25.5%	95.5	10.9%
	L14	5	4.34	3.94	22.7%	10.2%	39.3%	24.7%	27.1%	96.6	13.0%

Wheeler isn’t perfect by any means, but he has an electric fastball and an ability to dominate against right-handed hitters. On the season, he has held them to a .293 xwOBA on a 50% ground ball rate. A matchup against the Phillies isn’t great when it comes to the platoon advantage, as their confirmed lineup has five lefties in it, but we are dealing with very limited options here in the early slate. Wheeler has pitched well at home this season, he owns a 23% strikeout rate, and the Phillies’ lineup has a massive 27% k-rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Eflin wouldn’t be on my radar in a large slate, but he’s my second favorite pitcher in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

As alluded to above, the way to attack Zack Wheeler is with left-handed hitters. His numbers are significantly worse against batters from that side of the plate — .355 xwOBA, 39% hard contact rate, and a 35% ground ball rate. The smaller the slate gets, the more likely I am to target a hitter against one of my pitchers. Cesar Hernandez (.330 xwOBA), Carlos Santana (.390 xwOBA), and Nick Williams (.382 xwOBA) all bat from the left side and all have good numbers against right-handed pitching this season. You don’t want to get carried away with Phillies’ exposure if you are also playing Wheeler, but a one-off certainly isn’t a bad idea. Many DFS players are hesitant to employ this strategy, but it’s not like we are expecting a gem from Wheeler.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Nick Williams

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Mets

Zach Eflin is similar to Zack Wheeler in that the best way to attack him is with left-handed hitters. He has been brutally tough on righties, holding them to a .260 xwOBA and a 26% hard contact rate. While he has managed to limit the hard contact allowed to lefties, he has given up a .340 xwOBA and his ground ball rate is nearly 10% lower to batters from that side of the plate. At one point of the season, the Mets could roll out a left-handed heavy lineup, but it looks like only three of them are going to crack their lineup today. Similar to my strategy with the Phillies’ offense, we can look at Brandon Nimmo (.386 xwOBA), Asdrubal Cabrera (.377 xwOBA), and Michael Conforto (.349 xwOBA) as one-offs, as they all bat from the left side and have good numbers against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Michael Conforto

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Washington								Pittsburgh
			Jefry Rodriguez							Ivan Nova
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-100							9.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.399	0.438	52.4%	89.0	10.7%	38.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.358	0.393	33.7%	90.0	12.1%	41.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.317	0.332	30.0%	83.0	27.8%	42.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.321	0.326	36.3%	89.6	24.2%	50.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jefry Rodriguez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,800	Salary:			$5,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			21 of 22	Salary Rank:			18 of 22	Salary Rank:
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2018	2	4.84	5.52	20.3%	12.5%	40.0%	41.5%	26.8%	95.3	10.5%
	L14	2	4.78	8.10	22.2%	13.3%	46.2%	40.7%	29.6%	95.3	10.2%

We kick tonight’s nine-game slate off with the Nationals and Pirates. Rodriguez is a young pitcher with a limited track record in the major leagues. In his two starts this season, he has a SIERA close to 5.00 with a mediocre strikeout rate. We can see that there is potential with a 95 MPH average fastball and a 10.5% swinging strike rate, but he needs to find a little more consistency before we start targeting him as a play in DFS. Tonight will mark his fourth career start above the Double-A level, so we should let him get his feet wet before hopping in the pool with him.

Quick Breakdown: Rodriguez has plenty of talent, but he needs a bit more polish before becoming a finished product.

Ivan Nova
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,300	Salary:			$5,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			12 of 22	Salary Rank:			20 of 22	Salary Rank:
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	31	4.45	4.14	16.7%	4.6%	45.7%	34.8%	16.6%	92.8	8.4%
	2018	16	4.13	4.48	18.1%	4.3%	45.9%	34.9%	16.9%	93.1	8.8%
	L14	5	4.43	3.52	19.1%	5.6%	34.5%	35.5%	17.2%	93.8	8.0%

Nova is a mediocre pitcher that is basically just there to eat up innings. He has good control and a decent ground ball rate, but an 18% strikeout rate is well below the major league average. There are a handful of times each season where I will use him as an SP2, but he has to be facing a right-handed heavy offense. His struggles against lefties are well documented throughout his career. In 2018 alone, he has given up a .393 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to batters from the left side of the plate. He’ll likely see five lefties tonight against the Nationals, which takes him out of play.

Quick Breakdown: The fact that this game features a total of 9.0 runs is all we need to know about these two starting pitchers.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals’ offense has underperformed this season, but they haven’t played many games at full strength. They are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, yet they are still projected to score 4.5 runs tonight, which is a healthy implied run total. A matchup against Ivan Nova should suit this lineup well, as he has given up a .393 xwOBA with a 12% strikeout rate when facing left-handed hitters. Those numbers should make us lick our chops, especially since the Nationals have four lefties in their lineup with at least a .380+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching — Adam Eaton, Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, and Matt Adams. Harper is one of my favorite pivot plays in tournaments, as most will lean to Mookie Betts if paying up for an outfielder. Oh, and by the way, the other lefty that I haven’t mentioned is Daniel Murphy, who has been one of the best hitters in baseball over the last couple of seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Matt Adams

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh

We have a difficult decision to make with the Pirates tonight. On the one hand, they should be low owned in tournaments and are facing an inexperienced pitcher that has struggled with his control. On the other hand, this is an offense that doesn’t have a lot of firepower, which limits the appeal of a stack. I’d like to have a stronger opinion, but I’m not for or against targeting the Pirates’ offense tonight. Jefry Rodriguez has some talent, but has had at least an 8% walk rate at every level in each of the last three seasons. I see the Pirates as better salary savers than as a full stack. Josh Bell, Starling Marte (FanDuel), Gregory Polanco (FanDuel), and Colin Moran are all nice values at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Josh Bell, Colin Moran

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte (FD), Gregory Polanco (FD), Francisco Cervelli (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Cincinnati								Cleveland
			Anthony DeSclafani							Mike Clevinger
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-185							10.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.340	0.367	40.4%	88.2	21.2%	35.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.286	0.336	32.6%	86.1	19.4%	44.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.347	0.298	47.3%	87.6	20.0%	46.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.295	0.281	34.1%	86.6	24.6%	41.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Anthony DeSclafani
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,400	Salary:			$6,300	Salary:		$12,600
	Salary Rank:			19 of 22	Salary Rank:			16 of 22	Salary Rank:		12 of 22
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2018	6	4.21	5.08	20.6%	7.1%	41.4%	44.1%	13.7%	93.2	8.2%
	L14	5	4.34	4.71	19.8%	7.4%	41.9%	42.1%	13.6%	93.3	8.1%

Ladies and gentleman, fire up your Indians’ stacks. In six starts this season, DeSclafani has a 4.21 SIERA with a 41% ground ball rate and a 44% hard contact rate. He’s not generating many swings and misses and he’s not generating much soft contact. That’s going to be an issue against the Indians, who just continue to mash right-handed pitching. The fact that this game is being playing in Cleveland doesn’t help, as the Indians hit the ball well at home and Progressive Field tends to benefit left-handed power.

Quick Breakdown: DeSclafani’s ERA could take a big hit after tonight’s start against the Indians.

Mike Clevinger
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,700	Salary:			$11,500	Salary:		$21,900
	Salary Rank:			5 of 22	Salary Rank:			4 of 22	Salary Rank:		4 of 22
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	21	4.24	3.11	27.3%	12.0%	39.5%	34.2%	18.6%	92.5	12.5%
	2018	17	4.12	3.11	22.2%	8.1%	43.0%	33.4%	16.6%	93.2	11.3%
	L14	5	3.66	2.51	26.1%	7.5%	37.6%	37.9%	16.1%	93.7	11.5%

Clevinger is a good pitcher. He has a good fastball, he generates swings and misses, and he has improved his control. The downside is that his strikeout rate has dipped 5% this season, which is significant when it comes to daily fantasy baseball. Do we really want to pay this price ($9,700 on FanDuel and $11,500 on DraftKings) for a pitcher with a slightly above-average strikeout rate that finds himself in a difficult matchup? The projected lineup for the Reds has a .361 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 18% against right-handed pitching this season. Even though there are concerns with all of the top arms on the schedule, Clevinger isn’t going to make the final cut in any of my lineups.

Quick Breakdown: I like his chances to pick up the wins, but Clevinger is a bit too expensive for this matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Even though Progressive Field isn’t quite as friendly to hitters as the Great American Ballpark, the two are similar when it comes to left-handed home run production. The Reds also get to use the DH in this series, which will only add another hitter to an already stacked lineup. Right off the bat (pun intended), we can rule out the right-handed bats of Eugenio Suarez and Adam Duvall. The ballpark isn’t great for right-handed power and Mike Clevinger has been rough on righties this season. He’s been hittable for lefties though, as he has given up a .336 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate. Scott Schebler boasts a .369 xwOBA against right-handed pitching and is a nice value play on DraftKings ($3,800). Tucker Barnhart, Joey Votto, and Scooter Gennett are also viable, but are secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Scott Schebler (DK)

Secondary Plays – Scott Schebler (FD), Tucker Barnhart (DK), Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland

There are two offenses that are head and shoulders above the rest of the pack tonight — the Indians and the Red Sox. Both are playing at home and both draw exploitable matchups. It’s early in the day, but I expect the Red Sox to garner more ownership in tournaments, so a pivot to the Indians may not be the worst idea. As mentioned above, Anthony DeSclafani has had issues with left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .367 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate. Perhaps more importantly is his 36% ground ball rate against lefties. If you get the ball in the air and send it out to right field in this ballpark, good things tend to happen, especially when your lineup is as loaded as the Indians. Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, and Yonder Alonso all bat from the left side and all boast a .380+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. If you are looking to complete the five-man stack, Jason Kipnis should be low owned since he’ll likely be hitting sixth. It’s crazy how hesitant people are to play hitters batting sixth.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, Yonder Alonso

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes (DK)

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Detroit								Tampa Bay
			Francisco Liriano							Chris Archer
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TB -210							7.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	aEV	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.207	0.321	19.4%	87.3	25.4%	52.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.361	0.361	37.5%	88.5	16.9%	46.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.343	0.389	31.4%	87.6	17.1%	43.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.297	0.333	42.9%	91.5	29.1%	41.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Francisco Liriano
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,600	Salary:			$6,500	Salary:		$12,600
	Salary Rank:			18 of 22	Salary Rank:			15 of 22	Salary Rank:		12 of 22
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	18	5.09	5.66	19.4%	12.1%	44.9%	29.6%	16.8%	92.9	9.6%
	2018	13	5.25	4.03	18.7%	13.4%	44.8%	29.3%	20.0%	91.9	10.3%
	L14	3	6.03	4.50	16.9%	16.9%	43.5%	25.5%	21.3%	92.3	8.9%

We have a bad pitcher facing a bad offense tonight in Tampa, so the range of outcomes is quite broad for Liriano. After so many years of tilting Liriano in DFS, I now side with the opposing offense any time he takes the mound. In his 13 starts this season, he has a 5.25 SIERA with a walk rate of 13%. The Rays may not hit for the highest average when facing left-handed pitching, but they do have five batters in their projected lineup with an ISO of at least .210. As long as they can stay patient at the plate (which has been an issue for them this season), they should be able to knock Liriano around a bit tonight.

Quick Breakdown: I’ll be perfectly content if Liriano never makes another DFS lineup of mine.

Chris Archer
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,800	Salary:			$8,100	Salary:		$15,900
	Salary Rank:			6 of 22	Salary Rank:			10 of 22	Salary Rank:		7 of 22
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
	2017	34	3.44	4.07	29.2%	7.0%	42.0%	39.4%	13.2%	95.5	13.4%
	2018	13	3.92	4.24	23.7%	8.1%	43.7%	40.3%	17.1%	94.6	12.7%

Archer is making his first start in over a month after dealing with an abdominal injury. He hasn’t had the season that he was hoping for, but he was making strides before the injury. In 13 starts overall, he owns a 3.92 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24%. Throughout his career, he’s been his best when pitching at home against a right-handed heavy offense. He checks both of those boxes tonight against the Tigers, whose projected lineup has a .287 xwOBA and a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The question we have to ask is whether the pitch count (75 pitches) and potential rust in his first start back are worth the risk. At this price point and in this slate, I’m leaning toward playing Archer.

Quick Breakdown: Archer does have a capped ceiling thanks to a pitch count, but he can still exceed value in this matchup and at this price point.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers aren’t an offense that I target often unless they are facing a bad pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Tonight they are facing a competent pitcher in a bad ballpark for offensive production. They have one of the lowest implied run totals on the board and their projected lineup isn’t the prettiest girl at the ball. This isn’t even one of those ugly duckling situations where the girl eventually turns into a supermodel like you see in the movies. I know this is his first start back, but Chris Archer is not a pitcher that I like to pick on, especially in this ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay

The Rays are a lot like the Orioles in the early slate. While they aren’t my favorite offense in the slate, they are one of my favorite stacks thanks to their cheap price points. They have some sneaky upside in their lineup, as four batters in the heart of their order all boast a .210+ ISO against left-handed pitching this season — Wilson Ramos, C.J. Cron, Jake Bauers, and Daniel Robertson. They draw an exploitable matchup against Francisco Liriano, who is fully capable of issuing more walks than strikeouts any time he takes the mound. On the season, he has allowed a .389 xwOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Wilson Ramos (DK), C.J. Cron (GPP), Daniel Robertson

Secondary Plays – Wilson Ramos (FD), C.J. Cron (Cash), Matt Duffy, Jake Bauers (FD)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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