MLB Grind Down: Monday, May 2nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-03 03:22:22

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Chicago Cubs					Pittsburgh
			Jason Hammel					Gerrit Cole
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT -110					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.301	7	23.9%	8.7%	SP vs. Left	0.267	5	24.3%	6.2%
SP vs. Right	0.298	16	24.4%	3.9%	SP vs. Right	0.282	7	23.6%	4.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Jason Hammel
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$8,900	Salary:	$8,000
				FPPG:	33.6	FPPG:	18.1
				Pitcher Rating:	75.9	Pitcher Rank:	5
2016	4	3.94	23.7%	9.7%	40.0%	26.2%	3
2015	31	3.45	24.2%	5.6%	38.3%	32.9%	17

Hammel has come out of the gates firing, posting a 0.74 ERA (3.94 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 23.7% in his first four starts of the season. He is an interesting play tonight in what should be a pitcher’s duel against the Pirates in PNC Park. Pittsburgh is a team that hits right-handed pitching well, ranking eighth in team wOBA over the last two seasons. As a small underdog on the road, Hammel is best suited as an SP2 or as a GPP play on single-pitcher sites.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Gerrit Cole
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$9,100	Salary:	$9,400
				FPPG:	32.0	FPPG:	16.7
				Pitcher Rating:	87.3	Pitcher Rank:	2
2016	4	3.74	20.9%	6.6%	48.4%	33.3%	13
2015	32	3.23	24.3%	5.3%	48.0%	29.5%	30

Cole has carried his 2015 momentum into this season, posting a 3.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.9% in his first four starts of the season. While he is always a strong play at home, this isn’t the best matchup on the schedule. So far this season, the Cubs are ranked first in runs scored per game. They also have the eighth highest team wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. The strikeout potential is there, but I prefer Dallas Keuchel at home against the Twins.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Cubs Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.160 (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 6.04 (1 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.44 (18 of 20)

The Cubs may currently have the most productive offense in baseball right now, but they come into tonight’s game with the third lowest team total on the board. They draw a difficult matchup against Gerrit Cole, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA over the last two seasons. The Cubs’ bats are GPP plays at best in what is expected to be a low-scoring game.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.340	0.182	0.425	OF	$4,100	OF	$3,900
2	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.346	0.150	0.272	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,600
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.383	0.215	0.446	3B	$4,500	3B/OF	$4,100
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.394	0.275	0.463	1B	$4,700	1B	$4,400
5	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.326	0.150	0.402	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,400
6	Jorge Soler	RIGHT	0.309	0.143	0.189	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,100
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.324	0.150	0.275	SS	$3,000	SS	$2,800
8	David Ross	RIGHT	0.242	0.117	0.430	C	$2,400	C	$2,200
9	Jason Hammel	RIGHT	0.182	0.031	0.295	P	$8,900	P	$8,000
	Team Averages	—	0.316	0.157	0.355	—	$3,463	—	$3,438

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

Pirates Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.316 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.140 (26 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.32 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.56 (15 of 20)

The Pirates are in a similar position to the Cubs. While their offense has been very productive early on, they draw one of the worst matchups on the board tonight. The Pirates have the sixth lowest team total on the board, as they take on Jason Hammel at home. Over the last two seasons, Hammel has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	John Jaso	LEFT	0.361	0.176	0.338	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,100
2	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.366	0.190	0.322	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,300
3	David Freese	RIGHT	0.328	0.133	0.370	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,300
4	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.353	0.161	0.355	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,300
5	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.336	0.089	0.352	C	$3,300	C	$3,100
6	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.338	0.146	0.410	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,100
7	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.311	0.107	0.395	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,500
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.262	0.070	0.422	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,000
9	Gerrit Cole	RIGHT	0.105	0.000	0.103	P	$9,100	P	$9,400
	Team Averages	—	0.307	0.119	0.341	—	$3,475	—	$3,588

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – John Jaso, Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – NONE

Texas at Toronto – 7:07 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Texas					Toronto
			A.J. Griffin					R.A. Dickey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -140					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.293	2	17.2%	8.6%	SP vs. Left	0.294	12	12.7%	8.2%
SP vs. Right	0.224	0	17.1%	9.8%	SP vs. Right	0.334	16	16.5%	6.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
A.J. Griffin
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$7,600	Salary:	$9,200
				FPPG:	35.3	FPPG:	18.2
				Pitcher Rating:	29.2	Pitcher Rank:	20
2016	4	4.75	17.2%	9.1%	37.0%	31.5%	25

Griffin may have a 2.52 ERA in his first four starts of the season, but he isn’t a viable option tonight. His strikeout rate is too low and he draws one of the most difficult matchups in all of baseball. He is a sizable underdog against the Blue Jays, who are ranked first in team wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. To make matters worse, he has to face them in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
R.A. Dickey
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$6,900	Salary:	$6,300
				FPPG:	19.6	FPPG:	8.3
				Pitcher Rating:	35.5	Pitcher Rank:	18
2016	5	4.42	18.2%	9.1%	44.3%	34.1%	8
2015	33	4.76	14.3%	6.9%	41.9%	23.9%	8

Dickey hasn’t been terrible this season, but it would take nearly a perfect matchup for him to become a viable fantasy option. His strikeout rate has been down over the last couple of seasons and he is facing a capable Rangers’ offense in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Even though he is a favorite, he is not a pitcher on my radar tonight. The risk greatly outweighs the potential reward.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Rangers Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.321 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.153 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.48 (11 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.27 (5 of 20)

The Rangers come into tonight’s game with the fifth highest team total on the board. They draw a favorable matchup against the knuckleballer, R.A. Dickey. Over the last two seasons, Dickey has allowed a 28 home runs. He isn’t particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate, so load up on both left and right-handed hitters in this Rangers’ lineup.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.334	0.207	0.402	2B	$3,900	2B	$3,700
2	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.429	0.171	0.304	OF	$3,200	OF	$2,900
3	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.313	0.141	0.349	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,600
4	Prince Fielder	LEFT	0.374	0.152	0.283	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,900
5	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.284	0.135	0.497	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,600
6	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.370	0.236	0.370	OF	$3,300	1B	$3,500
7	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.282	0.080	0.352	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,200
8	Brett Nicholas	LEFT	0.274	0.217	0.325	C	$2,600	C	$2,800
9	Delino DeShields	RIGHT	0.308	0.107	0.145	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.330	0.161	0.336	—	$3,178	—	$3,378

Elite Plays – Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Mitch Moreland

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Toronto

Blue Jays Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.341 (1 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.189 (3 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.04 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.73 (1 of 20)

With no game in Coors Field tonight, the Blue Jays check in with the highest team total on the board. As mentioned above, they have been the best offense in baseball against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. A.J. Griffin is a fly-ball pitcher, which could be great news for these Blue Jays’ bats. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play here and don’t be afraid to stack them in both cash games and GPPs.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.300	0.089	0.441	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,600
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.391	0.264	0.439	3B	$4,700	3B	$4,500
3	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.395	0.300	0.300	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,100
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.381	0.267	0.229	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,800
5	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.321	0.164	0.363	SS	$3,400	SS	$3,300
6	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.330	0.215	0.317	1B	$2,100	1B	$2,700
7	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.311	0.127	0.350	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,200
8	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.295	0.103	0.141	2B	$2,100	2B	$2,200
9	Josh Thole	LEFT	0.209	0.018	0.246	C	$2,000	C	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.326	0.172	0.314	—	$3,078	—	$3,200

Elite Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak, Kevin Pillar

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Atlanta					NY Mets
			Mike Foltynewicz					Bartolo Colon
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -150					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.401	9	17.0%	6.7%	SP vs. Left	0.310	13	17.3%	3.2%
SP vs. Right	0.364	8	21.5%	7.8%	SP vs. Right	0.325	15	17.2%	2.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Mike Foltynewicz
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$5,800	Salary:
				FPPG:	20.8	FPPG:
				Pitcher Rating:	47.8	Pitcher Rank:	16
2015	15	4.30	19.3%	7.3%	33.3%	32.5%	15

This is just speculation on my end, but I believe Foltynewicz means a jolt of electricity. If not, then it should. Despite having one of the best last names in baseball, Foltynewicz is not a recommended play tonight. In 15 starts last season, he posted a mediocre 4.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.3%. He draws a tough matchup tonight against the Mets, who are a competent offense playing at home.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Bartolo Colon
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$7,700	Salary:	$6,700
				FPPG:	23.8	FPPG:	12.8
				Pitcher Rating:	67.7	Pitcher Rank:	7
2016	4	3.32	21.7%	3.1%	40.6%	32.9%	14
2015	31	4.02	16.7%	2.9%	42.3%	29.0%	2

Colon has been a popular value play on DraftKings to start the season. His price has come up a little bit, but he is still a nice SP2 on multi-pitcher sites. His first four starts have been stellar for a 42 year-old, posting a 3.32 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 21.7%. The Braves may not have the highest strikeout rate in the majors, but they are one of the worst hitting teams in baseball. Over the last two seasons, Atlanta is ranked 28th in team wOBA and 30th in team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Braves Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.300 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.109 (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.29 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.46 (17 of 20)

The Braves come into tonight’s game with the fourth lowest team total on the board. That shouldn’t surprise anyone, as they are only averaging 3.29 runs per game this season. In terms of the matchup, nothing really jumps off the page at us. Since the start of last season, Bartolo Colon has allowed a .310 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .325 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.355	0.100	0.316	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900
2	Daniel Castro	RIGHT	0.222	0.022	0.230	2B	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,300
3	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.300	0.140	0.259	3B	$2,100	3B	$2,800
4	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.371	0.213	0.368	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,200
5	A.J. Pierzynski	LEFT	0.334	0.133	0.269	C	$2,100	C	$3,100
6	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.297	0.093	0.183	2B	$2,100	2B/OF	$3,000
7	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.277	0.073	0.195	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,100
8	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.329	0.111	0.373	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,400
9	Mike Foltynewicz	RIGHT	0.079	0.038		P	$5,800
	Team Averages	—	0.285	0.103	0.274	—	$2,400	—	$3,225

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (FD)

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

Mets Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.152 (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.70 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.04 (8 of 20)

The Mets draw a decent matchup tonight against Mike Foltynewicz, who is making his first start of the season. In 15 starts last year, he allowed a .401 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .364 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Foltynewicz also gave up 17 home runs in those 15 starts. There are a number of viable options from the Mets tonight and they make for an interesting stack in GPPs.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.382	0.224	0.451	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,500
2	David Wright	RIGHT	0.329	0.124	0.337	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,900
3	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.408	0.287	0.455	OF	$4,300	OF	$3,800
4	Yoenis Cespedes	RIGHT	0.386	0.273	0.492	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,600
5	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.351	0.227	0.404	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,000
6	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.343	0.191	0.514	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,100
7	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.327	0.164	0.349	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,300
8	Kevin Plawecki	RIGHT	0.260	0.056	0.197	C	$2,200	C	$2,500
9	Bartolo Colon	RIGHT	0.128	0.021	0.000	P	$7,700	P	$6,700
	Team Averages	—	0.324	0.174	0.355	—	$3,463	—	$3,838

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, Lucas Duda

Secondary Plays – David Wright, Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – Cash & GPP

San Francisco at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
San Francisco					Cincinnati
			Johnny Cueto					Brandon Finnegan
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SF -160					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.265	7	23.8%	6.0%	SP vs. Left	0.340	3	19.5%	14.6%
SP vs. Right	0.312	15	18.0%	4.2%	SP vs. Right	0.294	10	22.0%	10.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Johnny Cueto
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$10,600	Salary:	$10,800
				FPPG:	45.2	FPPG:	25.0
				Pitcher Rating:	84.9	Pitcher Rank:	3
2016	5	3.27	22.6%	3.4%	43.6%	23.4%	18
2015	32	3.81	20.3%	5.3%	42.4%	28.7%	13

Cueto returns to his old stomping grounds tonight to take on the Reds. He spend the first nine years with the organization before eventually getting traded to the Royals in 2015. I always like to take a stroll down narrative street and you have to think that Cueto will be fired up for this start. He has pitched well so far in his first five starts with the Giants, posting a 3.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.6%. I slightly prefer Dallas Keuchel at a discount, but Cueto is a strong play in all league formats tonight.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Brandon Finnegan
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$5,900	Salary:	$6,000
				FPPG:	21.5	FPPG:	13.5
				Pitcher Rating:	44.5	Pitcher Rank:	17
2016	5	4.87	19.0%	12.4%	38.3%	36.6%	6
2015	4	3.77	22.8%	10.7%	54.3%	30.8%	5

Finnegan is a wildcard at this point in the season. While he has shown great upside, he has struggled with his command, walking 12.4% of the batters that he has faced this season. When you walk that many batters, it drives up your ERA and your pitch count. He is still an intriguing tournament play at his price point, but I don’t love the matchup against the Giants, who are one of the most difficult teams to strikeout in the majors.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Giants Offense
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.310 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.119 (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.00 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.10 (6 of 20)

The Giants aren’t nearly as strong offensively against left-handed pitchers as they are against right-handed pitchers, but they still get to face an inexperienced southpaw in a hitter-friendly ballpark tonight. The Giants come into this game with the sixth highest team total on the board. The sample size is small, but Brandon Finnegan has allowed ten home runs to right-handed hitters in his first nine major league starts.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Denard Span	LEFT	0.232	0.041	0.357	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,900
2	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.353	0.143	0.376	3B	$2,700	3B	$4,000
3	Buster Posey	RIGHT	0.357	0.177	0.370	C	$3,400	C	$4,400
4	Brandon Belt	LEFT	0.362	0.205	0.365	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,600
5	Hunter Pence	RIGHT	0.307	0.179	0.452	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,800
6	Brandon Crawford	LEFT	0.290	0.147	0.255	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,500
7	Gregor Blanco	LEFT	0.346	0.146	0.578	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,400
8	Johnny Cueto	RIGHT	0.121	0.000	0.172	P	$10,600	P	$10,800
9	Kelby Tomlinson	RIGHT	0.349	0.132	0.197	2B	$2,100	2B	$3,600
	Team Averages	—	0.302	0.130	0.347	—	$3,833	—	$4,778

Elite Plays – Buster Posey, Huner Pence

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Matt Duffy, Brandon Belt

Stackability – GPP

Cincinnati

Reds Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.306 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.144 (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.72 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.40 (19 of 20)

The Reds are an easy offense to avoid tonight. They have the second lowest team total on the board and they draw a difficult matchup against Johnny Cueto, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 wOBA over the last two seasons. I would typically throw Joey Votto out there as a viable GPP play, but there are enough options at first base that you don’t need to look his way.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.325	0.188	0.308	SS	$3,300	SS	$2,800
2	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.312	0.155	0.256	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,600
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.408	0.219	0.276	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,700
4	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.315	0.107	0.278	2B	$2,400	2B	$3,100
5	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.323	0.235	0.300	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,500
6	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.310	0.091	0.343	C	$2,200	C	$2,100
7	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.306	0.224	0.260	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,600
8	Brandon Finnegan	LEFT	0.216	0.071	0.000	P	$5,900	P	$6,000
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.241	0.041	0.245	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.306	0.148	0.252	—	#DIV/0!	—	#DIV/0!

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

LA Angels at Milwaukee – 7:20 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
LA Angels					Milwaukee
			Jered Weaver					Jimmy Nelson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL -105					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.348	15	13.9%	5.9%	SP vs. Left	0.365	16	18.3%	9.8%
SP vs. Right	0.324	13	12.4%	4.5%	SP vs. Right	0.261	8	20.7%	8.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Jered Weaver
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$7,400	Salary:	$6,500
				FPPG:	27.3	FPPG:	11.4
				Pitcher Rating:	31.4	Pitcher Rank:	19
2016	4	5.74	11.0%	7.0%	26.3%	35.0%	27
2015	26	4.88	13.5%	4.9%	34.4%	30.2%	23

Weaver is one of the best pitchers in baseball to pick on at this point in his career. In his first four starts of 2016, he has a 5.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate that is almost as low as his walk rate. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that is pitching in a home-run friendly Miller Park. Weaver should be avoided in all league formats tonight.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Jimmy Nelson
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$7,100	Salary:	$7,500
				FPPG:	34.4	FPPG:	17.5
				Pitcher Rating:	50.6	Pitcher Rank:	13
2016	5	4.42	19.4%	10.9%	52.8%	27.8%	2
2015	30	4.09	19.7%	8.6%	50.6%	28.9%	10

Nelson is not a viable cash game target tonight, but he makes an interesting GPP play on a night where no one will be on him. Everyone is going to be scared off of the high total for this game and I’m predicting his ownership to be around 5%. While he hasn’t pitched great this season, he does have a career 21.7% strikeout rate at home. The matchup isn’t terrible either, as the Angels are ranked 23rd in runs scored per game this season.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Angels Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.155 (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.56 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.47 (3 of 20)

The Angels have started to pick it up offensively, but they are still ranked near the bottom of the American League in most statistical categories. While I do like Jimmy Nelson as a GPP play, I also like the idea of targeting hitters against him (just not in the same lineup). Over the last two seasons, Nelson has allowed a .365 wOBA and 16 home runs to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Yunel Escobar	RIGHT	0.339	0.103	0.307	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,500
2	Rafael Ortega	LEFT	0.273	0.000	0.310	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,100
3	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.406	0.291	0.448	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,200
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.332	0.228	0.283	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,200
5	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.326	0.172	0.313	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000
6	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.297	0.081	0.273	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,100
7	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.325	0.186	0.418	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,300
8	Carlos Perez	RIGHT	0.287	0.104	0.129	C	$2,000	C	$2,400
9	Johnny Giavotella	LEFT	0.296	0.108	0.287	2B	$2,100	2B	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.320	0.141	0.308	—	$2,778	—	$3,544

Elite Plays – Rafael Ortega, Kole Calhoun

Secondary Plays – Mike Trout, Albert Pujols

Stackability – GPP

Milwaukee

Brewers Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.140 (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.29 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.53 (2 of 20)

The Brewers were one of the worst offenses in baseball over the first two weeks of the season, but they seem to have found their groove lately. They are now ranked 12th in runs scored per game. They draw a terrific matchup tonight against Jered Weaver, who is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has allowed 28 home runs in his last 30 starts. The Brewers may be my favorite offense to target tonight. Load up on their bats in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Domingo Santana	RIGHT	0.300	0.160	0.343	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300
2	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.328	0.087	0.307	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,600
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.365	0.209	0.495	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,700
4	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.334	0.135	0.379	C	$3,000	C	$3,700
5	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.334	0.272	0.430	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,800
6	Aaron Hill	RIGHT	0.276	0.124	0.250	3B	$2,100	3B	$3,000
7	Ramon Flores	LEFT	0.203	0.033	0.183	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000
8	Yadiel Rivera	RIGHT	0.172	0.067	0.097	SS	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,300
9	Jimmy Nelson	RIGHT	0.103	0.019	0.000	P	$7,100	P	$7,500
	Team Averages	—	0.268	0.123	0.276	—	$2,763	—	$3,425

MLB Grind Down: Monday, May 2nd

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – NONE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – John Jaso, Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – NONE

Texas at Toronto – 7:07 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Mitch Moreland

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak, Kevin Pillar

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Atlanta at NY Mets – 7:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (FD)

Stackability – NONE

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, Lucas Duda

Secondary Plays – David Wright, Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – Cash & GPP

San Francisco at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Buster Posey, Huner Pence

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Matt Duffy, Brandon Belt

Stackability – GPP

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

LA Angels at Milwaukee – 7:20 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Rafael Ortega, Kole Calhoun

Secondary Plays – Mike Trout, Albert Pujols

Stackability – GPP

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Chris Carter, Aaron Hill

Stackability – Cash & GPP

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