MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 13th
by
Ryan138 Last Updated
2016-08-14 00:31:53 The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs
Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET
| Tampa Bay | NY Yankees |
| | | |
| RIGHT | RIGHT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| NYY -155 | 8.0 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.298 | 7 | 31.5% | 17.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.281 | 19 | 33.8% | 22.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.272 | 6 | 35.6% | 19.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.285 | 20 | 32.1% | 20.8% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Matt Andriese |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $6,700 |
| FPPG: | 21.1 | FPPG: | 11.5 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 55.8 | Pitcher Rank: | 18 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 2 | 142.0 | 2.99 | 2.95 | 26.0% | 2.7% | 13.7% | 41.2% | 43.1% | 33.3% |
| 2016 | 10 | 121.7 | 4.00 | 2.90 | 19.4% | 5.6% | 10.4% | 46.0% | 35.3% | 34.6% |
| 2015 | 8 | 136.0 | 4.02 | 4.11 | 17.4% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 48.1% | 34.8% | 32.9% |
Andriese has been solid out of the bullpen for most of the year for the Rays and has now made two straight starts over the last week and a half. He has pitched well, but the problem for DFS players, of course, will be his pitch count. It did rise from 58 in his first start to 76 in his second, meaning we could possibly see another small jump in Saturday’s start. Still, there’s a chance Andriese doesn’t make it into the sixth inning, and he doesn’t have a strikeout rate (19.4%) high enough to give him upside in short innings. His price is very cheap, making him playable today as an SP2.
| Masahiro Tanaka |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $9,100 | Salary: | $9,100 |
| FPPG: | 31.9 | FPPG: | 17.1 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 78.3 | Pitcher Rank: | 4 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 6 | 91.7 | 3.78 | 3.97 | 21.6% | 4.7% | 10.0% | 41.3% | 33.0% | 39.5% |
| 2016 | 23 | 94.8 | 3.78 | 3.32 | 20.1% | 4.5% | 11.0% | 48.2% | 29.5% | 34.7% |
| 2015 | 24 | 95.4 | 3.36 | 3.51 | 22.8% | 4.4% | 11.4% | 47.0% | 33.8% | 31.1% |
Tanaka was priced very low at DK his last time out against Cleveland, and the Yankees righty came out with a solid eight-strikeout performance. He has solid numbers on the year, as he comes into this game with a 3.76 SIERA and a 20.1% strikeout rate, making him a good play against a Rays squad that is ranked 20th in wOBA against righties and strikes out at a 23.9% clip (fourth-highest in MLB). The upside is there, making Tanaka a viable play on the afternoon slate.
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
Tanaka has been good this year, holding lefties to a .266 wOBA and righties to a .291 wOBA. The Rays have the fifth-lowest total of all 30 teams playing today, making them an easy offense to stay away from.
- Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.183 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.9% (27 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.90 (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.02 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.68 (26 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.127 | 0.419 | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $4,400 |
| 2 | | LEFT | 0.315 | 0.176 | 0.319 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,600 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.327 | 0.193 | 0.281 | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $3,800 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.351 | 0.222 | 0.482 | SS | $3,500 | SS | $4,900 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.132 | | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,500 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.252 | 0.116 | 0.352 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $2,400 |
| 7 | | LEFT | 0.344 | 0.261 | 0.249 | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,200 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.167 | 0.340 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,300 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.169 | 0.061 | 0.181 | C | $2,100 | C | $2,400 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.303 | 0.162 | 0.328 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – RED
NY Yankees
Andriese has kept hitters from both sides of the plate to a wOBA under .256 this year. The Yankees come into this game with a middle-of-the-road projected run total of 4.32, which is the third-highest of the four game early slate. They are not a great offense to target today, but there are a few useable plays.
- Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.303 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.146 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.4% (6 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.12 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.32 (13 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | LEFT | 0.325 | 0.139 | 0.409 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,500 |
| 2 | | LEFT | 0.310 | 0.101 | 0.329 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,200 |
| 3 | | SWITCH | 0.349 | 0.268 | 0.349 | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $3,300 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.327 | 0.200 | 0.232 | C | $2,800 | C | $3,500 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.128 | 0.276 | 2B | $2,300 | 2B | $3,400 |
| 6 | | LEFT | 0.312 | 0.144 | 0.264 | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,700 |
| 7 | | SWITCH | 0.304 | 0.121 | 0.339 | 3B | $2,400 | 3B | $3,400 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.422 | 0.231 | 0.404 | C | $2,700 | C | $2,700 |
| 9 | | SWITCH | 0.280 | 0.121 | 0.283 | OF | $2,300 | OF | $2,800 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.324 | 0.161 | 0.321 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – RED
Houston at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET
| Houston | Toronto |
| | | |
| RIGHT | RIGHT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| TOR -175 | 8.5 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.313 | 16 | 25.5% | 20.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.331 | 17 | 28.8% | 17.7% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.336 | 20 | 29.1% | 21.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.233 | 2 | 21.7% | 19.7% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Collin McHugh |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $7,600 | Salary: | $7,400 |
| FPPG: | 28.3 | FPPG: | 14.1 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 62.1 | Pitcher Rank: | 15 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 91.4 | 3.15 | 5.40 | 28.0% | 5.1% | 9.9% | 39.5% | 32.9% | 41.6% |
| 2016 | 23 | 96.0 | 3.87 | 4.69 | 22.6% | 6.4% | 10.9% | 42.9% | 36.7% | 31.1% |
| 2015 | 32 | 101.3 | 3.91 | 3.89 | 19.9% | 6.2% | 10.3% | 45.4% | 34.6% | 25.1% |
McHugh has a solid 3.86 SIERA and 22.4% strikeout on the season. The problem with using him today is the matchup against the Blue Jays, who are ranked in the top ten against right-handed pitching in the majority of the offensive categories listed. The fact that the game is being played in Rogers Centre does not help McHugh, as he is a big underdog today and can be avoided.
| Aaron Sanchez |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $8,900 | Salary: | $10,400 |
| FPPG: | 35.9 | FPPG: | 19.0 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 69.3 | Pitcher Rank: | 9 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 4 | 94.5 | 3.80 | 2.33 | 16.7% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 61.0% | 26.8% | 27.7% |
| 2016 | 22 | 98.6 | 3.71 | 2.85 | 20.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 57.4% | 22.1% | 28.0% |
| 2015 | 11 | 131.7 | 4.43 | 3.22 | 16.1% | 11.6% | 7.0% | 60.6% | 21.6% | 21.0% |
The six-man rotation continues in Toronto, and now it’s Sanchez’s turn for a start. He has a solid 3.70 SIERA to go along with a 20.3% strikeout rate on the year. He gets a boom- or-bust matchup against the Astros, who strikeout at a very high 24.2% clips against righties but do have an offense capable of putting up double-digit runs against most of the starting pitchers in the league. He is a big favorite today (-175) making him playable, but his price is a bit too high at DraftKings considering his strikeout rate is just at 20.3%.
Batter Grind Down
Houston
If you are going to target any Houston bats today, the righties are not bad options. While Sanchez has allowed a .300 wOBA to lefties, he has struggled a bit against righties, who allowing a .351 wOBA to them this season. The Astros do have a very low run total considering they are playing at Rogers Centre, making their offense one to avoid stacking, but does have a few decent plays.
- Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.315 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.2% (28 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.90 (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.49 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.82 (24 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.168 | 0.343 | OF | $3,900 | OF | $3,600 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.188 | 0.050 | 0.224 | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $3,400 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.355 | 0.161 | 0.478 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $5,300 |
| 4 | | RIGHT | 0.370 | 0.221 | 0.394 | SS | $4,100 | SS | $4,800 |
| 5 | | SWITCH | 0.301 | 0.144 | 0.293 | 1B | $3,100 | 1B/3B | $3,300 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.215 | 0.301 | C | $3,000 | C | $2,600 |
| 7 | | LEFT | 0.247 | 0.118 | 0.216 | 1B | $2,300 | 1B | $3,000 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.275 | 0.092 | 0.286 | OF | $2,600 | OF | $2,900 |
| 9 | | LEFT | 0.316 | 0.185 | 0.199 | C | $2,600 | C | $2,600 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.300 | 0.150 | 0.304 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – ORANGE
Toronto
Toronto comes into this game with the sixth-highest projected run total at 4.68. McHugh can be attacked from both sides of the plate, as he has allowed a wOBA of .357 to lefties and .347 to righties on the year. The Blue Jays make a solid offense to target on the afternoon slate and can be used in all formats.
- Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.327 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.187 (4 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.6% (24 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.06 (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.79 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.68 (6 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.379 | 0.202 | 0.441 | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $4,600 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.396 | 0.267 | 0.324 | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $5,100 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.389 | 0.284 | 0.386 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,600 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.341 | 0.189 | 0.231 | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,600 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.322 | 0.177 | 0.416 | SS | $3,100 | SS | $4,700 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.313 | 0.173 | 0.364 | C | $2,600 | C | $3,300 |
| 7 | | SWITCH | 0.326 | 0.224 | 0.152 | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $3,700 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.291 | 0.144 | 0.148 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,100 |
| 9 | | LEFT | 0.235 | 0.077 | 0.000 | OF | $2,000 | OF | $2,500 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.332 | 0.193 | 0.274 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – , ,
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – GREEN
St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET
| St. Louis | Chicago Cubs |
| Luke Weaver | | |
| RIGHT | RIGHT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| CHC -220 | 9.0 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
| SP vs. Left | | | | | SP vs. Left | 0.312 | 16 | 26.5% | 21.0% |
| SP vs. Right | | | | | SP vs. Right | 0.253 | 11 | 24.1% | 22.8% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Luke Weaver |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $4,200 |
| FPPG: | 0.0 | FPPG: | 0.0 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 50.4 | Pitcher Rank: | 21 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
Luke Weaver will make his first major league start today. He is a highly touted prospect who averaged more than a strikeout per inning in Double-A (88 strikeouts in 77 innings). He gets a very tough matchup for his first start in Wrigley in this rivalry game against the Cubs. The matchup makes him a hard start, but the price could make it a bit easier, as he is very cheap across the industry. There may be more risk than reward here, so save that strategy for deep tournament settings.
| Kyle Hendricks |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $9,400 | Salary: | $11,400 |
| FPPG: | 33.7 | FPPG: | 18.5 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 79.6 | Pitcher Rank: | 3 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 99.2 | 3.81 | 1.05 | 20.0% | 6.2% | 10.3% | 53.7% | 26.3% | 25.3% |
| 2016 | 21 | 96.4 | 3.86 | 2.17 | 21.2% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 51.8% | 30.0% | 24.2% |
| 2015 | 32 | 87.3 | 3.37 | 3.95 | 22.6% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 51.3% | 26.9% | 25.8% |
Hendricks may be the best Cubs starting pitcher over the last two months or so. In his last ten starts, he has a ridiculous 1.06 ERA (3.89 SIERA) as well as a 21.7% strikeout rate. More importantly, he has actually been stretched out, exceeding 100 pitches in six of those ten starts. The matchup is tough today against the Cardinals, who rank third and first in wOBA and ISO respectively against right-handed pitching. He is a big favorite (tied for biggest at -220) making him a great play today in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
While the Cubs have a huge team total, the Cards have a very pedestrian one of just 3.81, which is the sixth-lowest of the day. Hendricks has kept all batters to a wOBA of under .268 from both sides of the plate, and the bats can be avoided for the most part.
- Cardinals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.339 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.197 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.1% (10 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.83 (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.93 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.81 (25 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | LEFT | 0.406 | 0.265 | 0.353 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B/3B | $4,500 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.160 | 0.251 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,100 |
| 3 | | LEFT | 0.348 | 0.263 | 0.372 | 1B | $3,100 | 1B/OF | $4,300 |
| 4 | | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.128 | 0.335 | SS | $2,500 | 3B/SS | $3,000 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.100 | 0.463 | C | $2,600 | C | $3,100 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.354 | 0.262 | 0.339 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,600 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.198 | 0.255 | 3B | $2,500 | 2B/3B | $3,200 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.371 | 0.257 | 0.428 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,100 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | P | $6,200 | P | $4,000 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.305 | 0.181 | 0.311 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs will have to face a good, young starter who will be making his first big league appearance. The Cubs will be licking their chops to try to put up 10+ runs again today, and Vegas believes it could be possible as they have the third-highest team total of the day and the highest of the afternoon slate. They are the best offense to target on the four-game slate.
- Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.327 (8 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.164 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.7% (25 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 4.00 (3 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.03 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.19 (3 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | SWITCH | 0.336 | 0.173 | 0.338 | OF | $3,900 | OF | $5,200 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.375 | 0.220 | 0.396 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B/OF | $4,900 |
| 3 | | LEFT | 0.397 | 0.271 | 0.411 | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $5,400 |
| 4 | | SWITCH | 0.343 | 0.171 | 0.381 | 2B | $3,200 | 2B/OF | $4,700 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.151 | 0.256 | SS | $2,600 | SS | $4,000 |
| 6 | | LEFT | 0.328 | 0.137 | 0.238 | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,200 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.167 | 0.310 | C | $3,000 | C/OF | $3,900 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.283 | 0.138 | 0.152 | SS | $2,500 | 2B/3B | $3,700 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.077 | 0.000 | 0.392 | P | $9,400 | P | $11,400 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.312 | 0.159 | 0.319 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – , ,
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – GREEN
Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers – 4:05 PM ET
| Pittsburgh | LA Dodgers |
| | | |
| RIGHT | RIGHT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| LAD -120 | 7.5 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.286 | 6 | 31.7% | 24.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.309 | 3 | 37.3% | 29.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.274 | 8 | 26.6% | 21.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.300 | 8 | 41.8% | 27.8% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Gerrit Cole |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $9,300 | Salary: | $10,000 |
| FPPG: | 31.2 | FPPG: | 16.2 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 74.2 | Pitcher Rank: | 7 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 93.2 | 3.63 | 3.34 | 22.8% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 52.4% | 27.4% | 27.4% |
| 2016 | 17 | 94.9 | 4.09 | 2.94 | 20.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 45.7% | 30.1% | 28.0% |
| 2015 | 32 | 101.2 | 3.23 | 2.60 | 24.3% | 5.3% | 10.2% | 48.0% | 29.6% | 29.5% |
Cole comes into this game with a 4.08 SIERA and a 20.2% strikeout rate. The matchup today is not terrible against the Dodgers, who rank 12th and 15th in wOBA and ISO respectively, but they do have some solid bats, as you’ll notice in the batting chart below, with four of the five top bats in the blue for both wOBA and ISO. He makes for a decent fantasy starter today, but I would rather have Hendricks or Tanaka for the early slate.
| Brandon McCarthy |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $8,900 |
| FPPG: | 27.9 | FPPG: | 15.4 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 76.1 | Pitcher Rank: | 6 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 5 | 79.0 | 5.25 | 3.13 | 22.6% | 16.1% | 7.1% | 35.2% | 42.6% | 35.7% |
| 2016 | 7 | 77.7 | 4.51 | 3.00 | 26.5% | 14.4% | 8.3% | 37.8% | 41.9% | 33.8% |
| 2015 | 4 | 91.8 | 2.61 | 5.87 | 30.9% | 4.3% | 11.7% | 38.3% | 40.0% | 47.5% |
McCarthy continues to start even though he hasn’t pitched more than four innings in any of his last three starts. His actual statistics look good, as he has a 3.13 ERA over the last 30 days, but his SIERA is horrible at 5.25, and he is simply walking way to many batters right now (16.1%). With a few solid options this afternoon, McCarthy is a tough sell to recommend in any formats.
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
While I don’t love McCarthy, that does not mean I love the Pirates offense either. They have been a bottom half of the league offense all year long, and that should continue today as Vegas has them projected to have the fourth-lowest total of the entire 30 teams.
- Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.140 (25 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.0% (16 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.95 (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.49 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.63 (27 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.293 | 0.105 | 0.330 | 2B | $2,600 | 2B | $2,900 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.356 | 0.155 | 0.338 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,700 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.349 | 0.179 | 0.249 | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,500 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.340 | 0.165 | 0.258 | OF | $3,700 | OF | $5,000 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.327 | 0.147 | 0.349 | 1B | $3,100 | 1B/3B | $3,400 |
| 6 | Jung-Ho Kang | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.191 | 0.218 | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $3,400 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.321 | 0.076 | 0.344 | C | $2,800 | C | $2,700 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.273 | 0.075 | 0.180 | SS | $2,400 | SS | $2,200 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.109 | 0.000 | 0.000 | P | $9,300 | P | $10,000 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.302 | 0.121 | 0.252 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays – ,
Stackability – ORANGE
LA Dodgers
Cole should be attacked from the left side, as he has allowed a .327 wOBA to lefties (.257 to righties). This bodes well for the lefty-heavy Dodgers lineup that has the potential to throw six of them out there today. Don’t go all in though as Vegas has their team total set at just 3.87.
- Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.319 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.165 (15 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.9% (15 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.42 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.87 (23 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | LEFT | 0.304 | 0.136 | 0.275 | 2B | $2,800 | 2B | $3,300 |
| 2 | | LEFT | 0.403 | 0.245 | 0.439 | SS | $3,900 | SS | $5,000 |
| 3 | | RIGHT | 0.384 | 0.226 | 0.381 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $4,800 |
| 4 | | LEFT | 0.364 | 0.190 | 0.192 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,100 |
| 5 | | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.193 | 0.450 | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $4,100 |
| 6 | | SWITCH | 0.340 | 0.217 | 0.573 | C | $2,800 | C | $4,300 |
| 7 | | LEFT | 0.353 | 0.232 | 0.458 | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,800 |
| 8 | | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.119 | 0.272 | 2B | $2,600 | 2B/OF | $2,900 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.092 | 0.000 | 0.000 | P | $7,200 | P | $8,900 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.323 | 0.173 | 0.338 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – ORANGE
Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET
| Atlanta | Washington |
| | | |
| RIGHT | RIGHT |
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under |
| WAS -162 | 9.0 |
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HH% | K% |
| SP vs. Left | 0.263 | 1 | 30.0% | 35.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.277 | 1 | 30.8% | 42.3% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.354 | 1 | 26.3% | 19.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.606 | 0 | 35.7% | 10.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Rob Whalen |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $6,100 |
| FPPG: | 30.0 | FPPG: | 14.6 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 54.5 | Pitcher Rank: | 20 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 2 | 95.0 | 4.11 | 5.73 | 25.0% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 41.4% | 37.9% | 27.6% |
| 2016 | 2 | 95.0 | 4.11 | 5.73 | 25.0% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 41.4% | 37.9% | 27.6% |
Whalen did not pitch half bad as a huge underdog in his second career start. While he did allow three earned runs, he struck out seven batters, showing he might have some hidden upside. His strikeout rate in the minors this year was over 22% at both levels he played at. He gets a very tough matchup today against the Nationals, who are large favorites and have a huge team total. He is cheap and playable at tournaments, but a lot of risk is attached.
| Reynaldo Lopez |
| FanDuel | DraftKings |
| Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $4,100 |
| FPPG: | 19.0 | FPPG: | 7.8 |
| Pitcher Rating: | 70.8 | Pitcher Rank: | 8 |
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HH% |
| L30 Days | 2 | 98.5 | 4.12 | 9.35 | 28.3% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 34.6% | 38.5% | 33.3% |
| 2016 | 2 | 98.5 | 4.10 | 9.35 | 28.3% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 34.6% | 38.5% | 33.3% |
Lopez will get the start today and try to improve on his two starts he made in July, where he went four innings in both and allowed three earned and six earned. He struggled, but what is important is the strikeouts were there as he has a 28.3% rate after those two starts. If there was ever a time to take a flyer on Lopez, today would be it, as he gets the best matchup on the board against the lowly Braves.
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
This matchup could be high scoring as both teams have a 4+ run projection. The Braves are always a tough offense to play, but today you can look for value plays up top, as they do have a 4.14 run total (16th-highest), putting guys like (FD) and (FD) in play today.
- Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.293 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.123 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.7% (8 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.70 (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.54 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.14 (16 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | LEFT | 0.335 | 0.113 | 0.394 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $4,700 |
| 2 | | SWITCH | 0.282 | 0.074 | 0.378 | SS | $2,500 | SS | $4,000 |
| 3 | | LEFT | 0.373 | 0.234 | 0.388 | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $5,000 |
| 4 | | RIGHT | 0.308 | 0.180 | 0.292 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,100 |
| 5 | | LEFT | 0.344 | 0.111 | 0.425 | OF | $2,500 | OF | $4,900 |
| 6 | | RIGHT | 0.305 | 0.165 | 0.304 | 3B | $2,500 | 3B | $4,200 |
| 7 | | LEFT | 0.314 | 0.109 | 0.255 | 2B | $2,300 | 2B/OF | $3,500 |
| 8 | | LEFT | 0.309 | 0.130 | 0.265 | C | $2,000 | C | $2,900 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | 0.439 | 0.000 | 0.293 | P | $6,600 | P | $6,100 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.334 | 0.124 | 0.333 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – (FD), (FD)
Secondary Plays – , (FD)
Stackability – ORANGE
Washington
This Nationals squad comes into this game with the fifth-highest team total of the entire day at 4.86 runs. Check the lineups, as Harper has been nursing an injury for the majority of the week. If he is in the lineup, him and Murphy make great plays.
- Nationals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.317 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.5% (7 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.88 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.69 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.86 (5 of 30)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
| 1 | | RIGHT | 0.345 | 0.209 | 0.293 | SS | $3,400 | 2B/OF | $4,400 |
| 2 | | RIGHT | 0.293 | 0.134 | 0.455 | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,300 |
| 3 | | LEFT | 0.379 | 0.226 | 0.334 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $5,200 |
| 4 | | RIGHT | 0.321 | 0.155 | 0.428 | C | $3,400 | C | $5,000 |
| 5 | | RIGHT | 0.323 | 0.145 | 0.419 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $4,500 |
| 6 | | SWITCH | 0.307 | 0.167 | 0.268 | SS | $3,100 | SS | $3,300 |
| 7 | | RIGHT | 0.321 | 0.176 | 0.267 | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,100 |
| 8 | | LEFT | 0.293 | 0.077 | 0.251 | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,300 |
| 9 | | RIGHT | | | 0.000 | P | $6,400 | P | $4,100 |
| | Team Averages | — | 0.323 | 0.161 | 0.302 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – (IF playing), ,
Secondary Plays – , ,
Stackability – YELLOW
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