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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 7th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-07-07 16:15:37

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Baltimore at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Baltimore Minnesota
baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman minnesotamlb Kyle Gibson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-142 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.320 0.318 26.8% 87.6 22.2% 44.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.333 38.6% 86.9 23.0% 44.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.349 0.357 35.5% 89.9 19.6% 47.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.298 0.326 35.9% 88.4 22.3% 51.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,400 Salary: $14,500
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 34 4.41 4.68 21.9% 8.7% 42.7% 32.3% 18.2%
2018 17 3.91 4.05 20.7% 5.8% 46.3% 32.0% 18.0%
L14 3 5.28 2.25 11.8% 6.6% 38.7% 29.0% 16.1%

Kevin Gausman has pitched pretty well this season. His 20.7% strikeout rate isn’t awe-inspiring, but he has a solid enough 3.92 SIERA and he has improved in terms of walks. He has also kept the hard contact down to a decent degree and his ground ball rate is up about 4%. Gausman does have issues in terms of conceding home runs (17 already this season), but his reverse splits should come in handy today against the Twins. Other than Brian Dozier, there aren’t many righties to fear in this Minnesota lineup. That said, this is a slate rife with pitching options. You can take a stab with Gausman in tournaments, but he’s not someone worth prioritizing today.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman is fine, but there are several better options today.

Kyle Gibson
kyle-gibson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,500
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 4.67 5.07 17.5% 8.7% 50.8% 35.8% 15.4%
2018 17 4.17 3.58 22.6% 9.9% 47.9% 37.1% 19.4%
L14 3 4.40 5.00 18.1% 7.2% 41.0% 34.4% 23.0%

Former dumpster fire Kyle Gibson has turned things around and looked like a solid arm for the Twins so far in 2018. His 4.17 SIERA suggests there’s some luck involved with his 3.58 ERA, but he has a respectable strikeout rate nearing 23% and he typically keeps the ball on the ground at a decent clip. The problem is that he still allows a lot of hard contact (37.1%) and his walk rate is dangerously close to 10%. Gibson has also allowed 11 home runs, 8 of which have been hit by righties. The Orioles are a bad team in general, but they do have some right-handed power capable of giving Gibson trouble. Even so, there are enough strikeouts in the lineup to where I do have some interest in the right-hander. Given the price, I’ll say he’s a strong SP2 option on this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Gibson is viable in an exploitable matchup with the Orioles.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

While I am somewhat intrigued by Kyle Gibson, some of the Orioles hitters do profile pretty well against him. Manny Machado is an outstanding play in just about any matchup, and Mark Trumbo has quietly been swinging the bat well of late. Chris Davis is a frustrating roster, but he’s in play if you’re hunting for a cheap home run. Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop and Tim Beckham are guys I’d play if I’m stacking Baltimore. An O’s stack in tournaments makes plenty of sense, but I’d limit my cash game exposure here. I’d rather play Gibson than stack the O’s.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.247 85.6 0.034 23.4% 5.3% 26.6% 52.4% 3B $2,300 3B $3,100 SS $6,000
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.343 89.1 0.185 32.5% 3.2% 19.2% 40.2% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.397 92.7 0.265 37.0% 11.3% 16.2% 35.9% SS $4,500 SS $5,000 3B $9,900
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.372 93.1 0.261 42.0% 6.3% 23.6% 38.0% OF $3,100 1B/OF $4,000 DH $7,300
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.275 86.7 0.076 32.1% 7.5% 35.8% 43.6% 1B $2,100 1B $2,800 IF/OF $5,900
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.229 84.2 0.177 23.4% 2.6% 24.2% 49.3% 2B $2,900 2B $3,500 2B $6,600
7 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.364 92.2 0.144 36.0% 7.5% 22.4% 44.0% OF $2,500 3B $3,400 3B $6,700
8 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.368 90.9 0.158 33.1% 9.3% 25.1% 50.7% OF $2,700 1B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,400
9 Chance Sisco LEFT 0.294 88.3 0.087 32.9% 7.5% 34.0% 46.7% C $2,000 C $2,800 C $5,400
Team Averages 0.321 89.2 0.154 32.5% 6.7% 25.2% 44.5%

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Chris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota

Gausman is a decent pitcher in his own right, but he’s still a reverse splits righty that will allow some power. 11 of the 17 dingers allowed on the season by Gausman have come from right-handed hitters. Brian Dozier has been awful, but I still think you can deploy him in GPPs in the right matchup. Most of the other appealing Minnesota hitters are lefties that I’d just reserve for tournaments. Logan Morrison, Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar and Jorge Polanco are the one-offs I’d look to.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.387 90.2 0.085 39.6% 11.9% 11.9% 51.9% 1B $2,500 1B $3,500 1B $6,300
2 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.355 89.7 0.279 38.3% 7.1% 16.3% 28.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,700 LF $9,400
3 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.312 87.5 0.194 39.0% 9.7% 19.1% 39.0% 2B $3,800 2B $4,000 2B $7,300
4 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.375 87.3 0.313 40.4% 6.6% 23.5% 23.7% 3B $3,300 3B/SS $4,400 3B $8,000
5 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.379 89.8 0.185 40.0% 11.2% 18.9% 28.8% 1B $3,000 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
6 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.438 84.4 0.167 25.0% 14.3% 28.6% 0.0% SS $2,900 3B/SS $3,600 SS $7,500
7 Max Kepler LEFT 0.308 89.6 0.114 37.5% 11.5% 14.5% 37.5% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 RF $6,500
8 Jake Cave LEFT 0.367 92.2 0.184 39.3% 2.6% 25.6% 50.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,200 CF $6,800
9 Bobby Wilson RIGHT 0.236 77.5 0.098 23.1% 7.1% 18.6% 48.0% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,900
Team Averages 0.351 87.6 0.180 35.8% 9.1% 19.7% 34.2%

Elite Plays – Eddie Rosario

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Logan Morrison, Eduardo Escobar

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Cincinnati Chicago Cubs
cincinnatimlb Matt Harvey cubsmlb Tyler Chatwood
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-145
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.359 0.380 43.7% 90.1 16.1% 38.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.386 0.404 33.9% 88.3 16.8% 47.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.293 0.331 35.7% 88.1 19.1% 46.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.278 0.314 21.5% 85.0 25.3% 64.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Harvey
matt-harvey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $13,100
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 18 5.44 6.70 15.6% 10.9% 43.0% 32.5% 24.1%
2018 14 4.39 4.91 17.6% 6.2% 42.3% 39.6% 16.1%
L14 3 3.62 1.47 20.0% 2.9% 48.0% 33.3% 25.5%

Matt Harvey back? The right-hander hasn’t yet rediscovered his old form, but he’s looked comfortable since moving to Cincinnati. Over his last 4 starts, Harvey has allowed a total of just 6 earned runs in 23.1 innings of work. The strikeout upside still hasn’t been there, and his K-rate on the season of just over 17% isn’t all that inspiring. He has kept the walks down and the ball on the ground, but he’s still allowed a hard-hit rate over 39% over those 4 starts. Harvey will also be drawing a tough matchup against the Cubs at Wrigley this afternoon. There’s a path to a solid start here, but this doesn’t look like the spot to be taking the Harvey dive.

Quick Breakdown: Harvey has been in decent form, but I’m not risking it with him.

Tyler Chatwood
tyler-chatwood-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.78 4.69 19.0% 12.2% 58.1% 29.1% 22.1%
2018 15 5.84 4.54 20.6% 19.4% 54.4% 29.0% 19.5%
L14 1 4.43 12.60 24.0% 12.0% 37.5% 25.0% 18.8%

Tyler Chatwood has been pretty disastrous as a Cub. The 20.6% strikeout rate and 29% hard contact are passable, but he just can’t stop walking guys. Chatwood has a walk rate over 19% on the year, which is one of the most garish numbers in the league among starters. His ground ball lean helps him limit damage in some spots, but I don’t see how you can roster a guy that is continuing to issue free passes by the boatload. The Reds also have a generally solid offense going up against him today, so this is an easy pass in my eyes.

Quick Breakdown: Chatwood isn’t playable until he gets his walks under control.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Chatwood has really struggled, especially against lefties. Left-handed hitters have a .386 wOBA against him and they’ve accounted for 4 of the 5 homers he’s conceded. Cincy does have several capable left-handed hitters from which to choose. Joey Votto always tops the list, followed closely by Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler, Tucker Barnhart and Jesse Winker. I’ll likely limit my Reds exposure to lefties, but Eugenio Suarez has been tearing it up from the right side this season. I think the Reds are viable in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.369 90.4 0.228 42.3% 9.2% 21.9% 50.8% OF $4,000 OF $4,000 RF $7,700
2 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.339 86.2 0.111 40.1% 9.7% 17.3% 40.1% C $2,900 C $3,400 C $6,800
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.461 89.3 0.163 40.7% 17.6% 12.8% 32.6% 1B $4,400 1B $4,800 1B $8,600
4 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.361 86.9 0.188 40.3% 7.7% 16.6% 38.0% 2B $4,100 2B $4,900 2B $9,200
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.405 91.5 0.266 50.0% 9.1% 19.1% 35.7% 3B $4,100 3B $5,200 3B $9,500
6 Jesse Winker LEFT 0.397 91.1 0.122 46.0% 14.0% 12.7% 40.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 RF $7,700
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.310 82.9 0.115 31.6% 6.2% 11.9% 36.4% SS $3,400 SS $4,500 SS $9,100
8 Matt Harvey RIGHT 0.156 75.6 0.000 18.8% 4.0% 32.0% 53.8% P $6,300 P $6,500 P $13,100
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.243 78.8 0.069 19.3% 10.8% 25.4% 45.7% OF $2,500 OF $3,200 CF $6,400
Team Averages 0.338 85.9 0.140 36.6% 9.8% 18.9% 41.5%

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler

Secondary Plays – Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, Tucker Barnhart

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs

Matt Harvey has looked passable of late, but he still struggles against left-handed hitters. The .359 wOBA allowed tells you that much. Anthony Rizzo is right there with Joey Votto among the best first basemen on the slate, while the lesser lefties will also be in play. That means Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist register as potential options. You can also consider the hot-hitting Javier Baez and Willson Contreras as a catcher despite the lack of a platoon advantage against Harvey.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.270 86.4 0.125 31.9% 5.8% 19.5% 48.9% OF $2,600 OF $3,900 CF $7,400
2 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.362 89.2 0.162 34.5% 7.5% 9.4% 41.0% OF $2,900 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
3 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.339 89.8 0.278 38.5% 3.7% 28.4% 40.3% 2B $4,500 2B/SS $5,300 2B $9,500
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.391 90.5 0.196 34.7% 11.0% 9.0% 39.3% 1B $3,800 1B $4,700 1B $9,100
5 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.357 88.5 0.160 34.5% 15.5% 12.4% 45.3% OF $3,100 2B/OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,400
6 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.387 89.4 0.305 40.4% 16.4% 24.4% 43.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,500
7 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.310 87.4 0.155 30.3% 7.6% 19.4% 49.4% C $3,100 C $4,300 IF/OF $8,600
8 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.307 86.5 0.105 32.9% 9.8% 21.4% 36.1% SS $3,000 SS $3,900 SS $7,700
9 Tyler Chatwood RIGHT 0.155 74.3 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 26.3% 72.7% P $6,600 P $5,400 P $10,800
Team Averages 0.320 86.9 0.165 30.9% 8.6% 18.9% 46.3%

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Ian Happ

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras

Stackability – GREEN

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh – 4:05 PM ET

Philadelphia Pittsburgh
philadelphiamlb Jake Arrieta pittsburghmlb Jameson Taillon
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-120 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.336 27.2% 87.7 15.3% 54.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.335 0.323 34.6% 86.0 18.0% 48.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.288 0.293 28.8% 86.8 17.2% 57.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.273 0.271 31.2% 89.3 25.9% 52.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Arrieta
jake-arrieta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,700
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 4.15 3.53 23.1% 7.8% 45.1% 29.4% 20.0%
2018 16 4.37 3.54 16.4% 7.8% 56.0% 28.2% 19.9%
L14 2 4.33 4.50 15.2% 6.5% 58.8% 33.3% 22.2%

Jake Arrieta has gone from a dominant strikeout pitcher to a guy that relies on soft-hit grounders in no time at all. Arrieta’s strikeout rate has dipped all the way down to just 16.4% on the year, while his ground ball rate is up to 56%. That’s the kind of skill set that will play on a real life level, but it doesn’t do much for us from a fantasy perspective. Arrieta’s strikeout upside is limited even more by his matchup today with a low-K Pirates lineup. While it’s a fine spot for run prevention in a favorable park for pitching, Arrieta’s lack of upside will have me looking elsewhere on this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Arrieta is cheap, but where are the strikeouts?

Jameson Taillon
jameson-taillon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,100
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.24 4.44 21.3% 7.8% 47.3% 29.6% 22.1%
2018 17 3.84 4.05 22.0% 7.1% 50.9% 32.9% 19.9%
L14 2 4.89 4.22 18.4% 12.2% 50.0% 52.9% 5.9%

Of the two starters in this game, it’s Jameson Taillon that carries more fantasy appeal. Taillon has a K-rate of 22% so far on the year and he has kept the ball on the ground at a clip nearing 51%. The Phillies lineup opposing him today is more daunting than the one we’ve seen in recent years, but they also strike out a ton. The Phils have a strikeout rate of 26.2% as a team this season against right-handed pitching, which is the worst mark in all of baseball. They have enough lefties to potentially give Taillon a bit of trouble, but this is a solid spot overall for him today. I think Taillon is playable in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Taillon is a strong low-dollar option today.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Taillon looks solid today, but he’s still a righty with a wide platoon split. PNC Park isn’t a great hitters’ park in general, but it is somewhat favorable to lefty power. If you’re out on Taillon, I kinda like the idea of putting a few Phillies lefties into your lineup on the other side. Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez and Odubel Herrera would be the prime options, while Nick Williams typically makes for a decent value outfielder. I’m always down to round things out with Rhys Hoskins, who has shown he can hit pitchers of any handedness. I’d keep the stacks to tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.332 83.7 0.141 26.4% 14.5% 22.1% 43.1% 2B $3,700 2B $4,300 2B $8,100
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.385 89.2 0.260 36.1% 12.0% 27.3% 26.4% OF $3,900 OF $4,900 IF/OF $8,700
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.315 87.4 0.190 26.5% 7.1% 20.6% 43.3% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,600
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.398 89.3 0.215 37.7% 20.8% 13.5% 35.5% 1B $3,500 1B $3,900 1B $7,400
5 Nick Williams LEFT 0.376 89.1 0.227 32.4% 9.8% 26.4% 45.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,200 RF $6,500
6 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.307 86.3 0.121 26.1% 5.6% 22.3% 38.4% SS $2,400 SS $3,200 SS $6,700
7 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.247 91.0 0.122 27.3% 3.8% 38.2% 56.8% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,500
8 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.308 88.9 0.162 24.1% 5.4% 15.8% 55.9% 3B $2,500 3B $3,400 3B $6,800
9 Jake Arrieta RIGHT 0.171 94.3 0.150 42.9% 4.8% 61.9% 28.6% P $7,200 P $6,300 P $12,700
Team Averages 0.315 88.8 0.176 31.1% 9.3% 27.6% 41.5%

Elite Plays – Odubel Herrera

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

While I’m not into Arrieta today, I’m also not gung-ho about deploying a bunch of Pirates hitters against him. Arrieta typically keeps the ball on the ground, and this isn’t an overly desirable hitting setting in the first place. You can try a one-off with a left-handed bat like Corey Dickerson or Josh Bell, but the appeal of Pittsburgh bats on this slate is minimal.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Austin Meadows LEFT 0.334 87.5 0.135 41.1% 3.2% 19.1% 39.7% OF $2,400 OF $3,700 CF $7,500
2 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.325 88.4 0.131 30.4% 10.4% 17.2% 52.0% 1B $2,500 1B $3,500 1B $6,600
3 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.280 82.9 0.096 30.7% 4.1% 14.5% 37.3% 2B $2,800 2B $3,700 2B $7,400
4 Colin Moran LEFT 0.374 88.9 0.177 34.7% 8.9% 15.6% 40.7% 3B $2,300 3B $3,200 3B $6,700
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.342 87.7 0.163 33.7% 4.3% 11.5% 33.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
6 Elias Diaz RIGHT 0.340 89.2 0.178 30.8% 7.0% 14.0% 52.6% C $2,700 C $3,300 C $6,500
7 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.369 90.9 0.223 36.2% 13.9% 21.9% 33.6% OF $2,700 OF $4,500 RF $9,400
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.321 88.1 0.141 26.5% 7.3% 22.5% 42.4% SS $2,200 SS $2,900 SS $5,900
9 Jameson Taillon RIGHT 0.137 77.5 0.038 22.2% 0.0% 33.3% 68.8% P $7,600 P $6,600 P $13,100
Team Averages 0.314 86.8 0.142 31.8% 6.6% 18.8% 44.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Josh Bell

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis at San Francisco – 4:05 PM ET

St. Louis San Francisco
stlouismlb Carlos Martinez sanfranciscomlb Jeff Samardzija
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SF -100 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.293 0.314 35.3% 83.8 19.9% 46.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.416 0.435 30.6% 87.4 17.6% 20.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.301 39.8% 85.6 27.1% 54.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.302 0.342 29.9% 84.2 14.1% 43.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Martinez
carlos-martinez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $16,300
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.85 3.64 25.3% 8.3% 51.3% 32.1% 19.4%
2018 14 4.58 3.20 22.8% 12.8% 49.5% 37.0% 21.8%
L14 3 3.75 5.06 24.7% 6.9% 38.8% 48.0% 18.0%

Carlos Martinez has largely been a disaster this season, but might he have turned a corner? CarMart has put up back-to-back strong showings against the Indians and Diamondbacks during which he has racked up 15 strikeouts in 12 innings of work. Most importantly, he’s walked just 3 in that span. Martinez’ strikeout ability is unquestioned, but he’s walked nearly 13% of hitters he’s faced so far this season. He has also allowed a hard-hit rate of 37%, which is suboptimal. The right-hander does get the benefit of pitching in arguably the best pitching setting in the league in San Francisco, and the opposing SF lineup isn’t all that daunting. He’s also cheap enough to where I think you can give him a look today.

Quick Breakdown: Martinez comes with all sorts of upside. If you can stomach the risk, he’s a solid SP2 try today.

Jeff Samardzija
jeff-samardzija-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,600
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.63 4.42 24.2% 3.8% 41.5% 30.1% 20.7%
2018 8 5.83 6.56 15.7% 13.9% 33.9% 30.2% 16.4%

Jeff Samardzija is set to make his first start in over a month after missing time with a shoulder injury. The veteran struggled prior to going down, posting an ugly 5.83 SIERA along with a weak 15.7% strikeout rate. Couple that with a walk rate nearing 14% and you’ve got a disaster on your hands. Samardzija obviously isn’t that bad in reality, but those red flags combined with a mediocre matchup and the fact that he’s making his first start off the DL make him a super risky play. He’s cheap enough to where you can consider a full punt, but his upside is capped.

Quick Breakdown: The price on Samardzija is too low for his talent level, but there is a lot going against him today.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Jeff Samardzija has been routinely lit up this season, but I’d expect him to improve as the year progresses. Still, he’s a righty with a wide split that gave up 31 home runs a season ago. The ballpark stinks for power, but I think you can play a few Cardinals in this spot. Matt Carpenter tops the list against the right-hander, but I also think Marcell Ozuna and Jedd Gyorko are viable sources of salary relief.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.425 91.0 0.242 50.3% 14.2% 23.9% 21.5% 3B $3,600 3B $5,300 3B $10,000
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.354 91.6 0.175 46.9% 10.2% 27.1% 49.7% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
3 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.416 91.1 0.211 42.4% 8.2% 14.9% 48.3% 1B $2,900 1B $4,200 IF/OF $8,400
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.357 91.8 0.120 46.7% 5.6% 19.9% 47.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 LF $7,400
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.365 89.4 0.238 47.5% 5.2% 13.2% 44.0% C $3,000 C $4,000 C $7,500
6 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.375 90.8 0.200 42.0% 7.5% 29.1% 28.4% SS $3,400 SS $3,800 SS $7,700
7 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.255 87.7 0.090 35.8% 6.3% 27.1% 35.8% 2B $3,000 2B/3B $3,400 3B $6,800
8 Harrison Bader RIGHT 0.259 87.0 0.097 31.2% 7.3% 29.8% 51.3% OF $2,600 OF $3,600 CF $7,700
9 Carlos Martinez RIGHT 0.256 79.8 0.150 35.7% 0.0% 36.4% 53.8% P $8,400 P $8,100 P $16,300
Team Averages 0.340 88.9 0.169 42.1% 7.2% 24.6% 42.2%

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Marcell Ozuna

Secondary Plays – Jedd Gyorko, Tommy Pham

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

San Francisco

We know Carlos Martinez will get blasted every now and again. While I do have interest in playing him, he’s still a guy with a dicey track record against left-handed hitters. Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford would grade out as solid options here, followed by Joe Panik as a cheap try. I respect Martinez enough to where I’ll probably steer clear of the Giants right-handed bats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Alen Hanson SWITCH 0.285 84.6 0.326 31.9% 5.3% 18.1% 39.4% 2B $2,500 2B/OF $3,500 2B $6,500
2 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.353 88.4 0.099 37.2% 8.3% 13.0% 50.7% C $2,800 C $4,000 C $7,700
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.358 90.9 0.160 47.0% 11.5% 23.5% 32.2% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 RF $7,300
4 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.436 88.6 0.273 50.8% 12.6% 20.5% 16.9% 1B $3,600 1B $4,400 IF/OF $8,500
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.359 88.8 0.168 39.0% 8.5% 19.9% 41.0% SS $3,000 SS $4,000 SS $7,600
6 Pablo Sandoval SWITCH 0.339 91.3 0.157 46.2% 8.5% 24.8% 51.6% 3B $2,000 1B/3B $3,300 3B $6,600
7 Joe Panik LEFT 0.394 87.6 0.129 31.2% 9.0% 6.8% 44.0% 2B $2,100 2B $3,300 2B $6,400
8 Gorkys Hernandez RIGHT 0.330 86.8 0.191 41.2% 6.0% 28.0% 47.8% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 CF $7,300
9 Jeff Samardzija RIGHT 0.160 102.0 0.000 66.7% 0.0% 57.1% 100.0% P $5,700 P $4,400 P $8,600
Team Averages 0.335 89.9 0.167 43.5% 7.7% 23.5% 47.1%

Elite Plays – Brandon Belt

Secondary Plays – Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees at Toronto – 4:07 PM ET

NY Yankees Toronto
nyyankeesmlb Luis Severino torontomlb J.A. Happ
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-170 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% aEV K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.238 0.293 34.6% 87.8 32.1% 45.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.189 0.250 25.9% 86.7 29.1% 59.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.238 0.280 30.2% 87.0 28.7% 45.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.307 0.304 29.6% 88.7 25.6% 40.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luis Severino
luis-severino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,700 Salary: $13,000 Salary: $25,200
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 3.25 2.98 29.4% 6.5% 50.6% 28.5% 19.4%
2018 18 3.01 1.98 30.1% 6.3% 45.6% 31.8% 22.2%
L14 3 3.23 1.40 26.3% 5.3% 45.1% 31.4% 19.6%

Luis Severino checks just about every box. The right-hander has an elite strikeout rate of 30.1% along with minimal walks. His 3.01 SIERA is higher than his 1.98 ERA, but both are excellent. He keeps the ball on the ground and the hard contact to a minimum, all while pitching in arguably the toughest division in baseball. Sev draws another start against an AL East foe today in Toronto. The Jays aren’t a bad offense, but Severino is just dominant. The problem here is that he’s the priciest pitcher on the slate and we have a number of other strong pitching options.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is an elite play, as usual, but I’m not sure he’s a necessary spend.

J.A. Happ
j-a-happ-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $9,400 Salary: $17,900
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.11 3.53 22.7% 7.4% 46.9% 26.7% 20.3%
2018 17 3.50 4.03 26.3% 6.7% 44.4% 28.9% 20.6%
L14 2 5.10 7.71 15.1% 5.7% 31.7% 16.7% 19.1%

J.A. Happ has been solid this season, as evidenced by his 3.51 SIERA and strikeout rate over 26%. Opposing hitters haven’t registered a ton of hard contact against him, but Happ has the misfortune of facing a loaded Yankees offense today. New York has some strikeouts in the lineup, but not necessarily enough to offset the risk here. Happ is still a homerprone lefty with a wide split, which are attributes you don’t want in a pitcher facing NYY. He’s also expensive, which makes the fade even easier.

Quick Breakdown: Happ looks like an easy fade against the Yankees.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Happ is a decent pitcher, but he’s also allowed 14 home runs on the season. 13 of those have come off the bats of righties, and the Yanks have plenty of those to throw at him. I think you can play Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton against him with confidence. The lineup is a bit weakened without Gary Sanchez or Gleyber Torres, but Aaron Hicks is another solid play and Kyle Higashioka is a potential source of a cheap home run. One of Brandon Drury or Neil Walker can serve as a way to round out a stack. I’d stick with the big guns in cash games, but stacks in GPPs make sense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.458 92.3 0.368 52.5% 10.3% 18.4% 28.3% OF $3,800 OF $4,700 CF $9,400
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.404 94.1 0.250 43.1% 20.5% 33.0% 33.3% OF $4,900 OF $5,400 RF $10,700
3 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.493 98.2 0.414 65.1% 10.1% 26.3% 33.3% OF $4,700 OF $5,000 RF $10,000
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.263 79.0 0.108 27.9% 6.9% 14.9% 46.1% SS $3,900 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
5 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.329 90.3 0.288 32.8% 6.8% 15.9% 44.8% 3B $3,300 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
6 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.305 84.2 0.000 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 50.0% 1B $2,200 1B/3B $3,300 3B $6,700
7 Kyle Higashioka RIGHT 0.671 102.2 1.500 100.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% C $2,700 C $3,200 C $6,500
8 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.218 85.5 0.029 33.3% 5.4% 29.7% 41.7% 2B $2,400 1B/2B $3,200 2B $6,500
9 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.284 86.4 0.015 20.0% 10.4% 18.2% 59.6% OF $3,200 OF $3,500 LF $6,600
Team Averages 0.381 90.2 0.330 41.6% 10.0% 27.4% 37.5%

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks, Kyle Higashioka

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

Luis Severino is one of those pitchers there’s no need to target from a DFS standpoint. He’s allowed a .238 wOBA to hitters from either side of the plate and generally keeps the ball in the park. Hard pass on the Jays bats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA aEV ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.352 88.2 0.222 37.1% 13.4% 28.2% 34.1% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 RF $6,300
2 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.397 92.3 0.241 40.6% 5.4% 24.8% 37.0% OF $3,400 OF $3,500 LF $6,400
3 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.341 88.8 0.179 30.9% 7.8% 16.4% 40.0% 3B $2,900 2B/3B $3,600 3B $7,600
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.381 91.9 0.225 34.8% 18.1% 26.5% 34.7% 1B $3,300 1B $3,400 1B $6,900
5 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.333 87.9 0.152 34.8% 4.2% 19.9% 39.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,400 CF $6,700
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.319 90.7 0.148 32.7% 16.2% 23.7% 45.5% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,500
7 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.341 91.4 0.273 39.2% 7.3% 26.0% 40.5% OF $2,300 OF $3,400 RF $6,400
8 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.388 93.7 0.228 36.4% 1.7% 22.4% 40.9% 2B $2,400 2B/SS $3,000 2B $5,700
9 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.340 89.0 0.191 35.6% 3.1% 13.2% 43.9% SS $2,300 SS $2,900 SS $5,700
Team Averages 0.355 90.4 0.207 35.8% 8.6% 22.3% 39.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles