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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 13th

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-05-13 15:18:37

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Boston at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Boston Minnesota
bostonmlb Rick Porcello minnesotamlb Nick Tepesch
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-146 9.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.267 32.8% 4.0% 21.5% 40.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.424 60.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.298 30.0% 3.8% 21.8% 45.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.421 18.2% 0.0% 21.4% 27.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rick Porcello
rick-porcello-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $11,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 3.78 3.15 21.2% 3.6% 43.1% 30.0% 16.9%
2017 6 3.56 4.46 24.1% 5.6% 42.1% 39.5% 19.3%

We have a total of 12 games on the schedule today, however just three are part of the afternoon slate. We’ll quickly run through the options on the early slate and then move on to the late. Rick Porcello is currently pitching at about the same level he did last season. That doesn’t mean he’s going to win the Cy Young again (don’t get me started). Porcello is sporting a 3.56 ERA with a 24.1% K rate. He’s not the worst option on the board but he certainly isn’t worth his current price tag. The Twins have the fourth best wOBA in the league against RH pitching at .342 with a 21.3% K rate.

Quick Breakdown: – Porcello would be a fine option if it were not for his elevated price tag. He’s a tournament option at best on the three-game early slate.

Nick Tepesch
nick-tepesch-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 4.53 11.25 15.8% 0.0% 25.0% 31.3% 12.5%

Nick Tepesch made just one start last season and it was not good by any means. Prior to that he hadn’t pitched in the major leagues since 2014. Even way back then he wasn’t good with a .319 wOBA against LH hitters and .370 wOBA against RH hitters. The Red Sox have the lowest K% in the league against RH pitching at 16.6%. Even as the cheapest pitcher on the board, Nick Tepesch is not in play here.

Quick Breakdown: – We can safely avoid Tepesch today, but stacking against him is an option.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Nick Tepesch doesn’t do anything particularly well. His career wOBA versus RH and LH hitters is nearly equal. We can target batters from either side of the plate here. That starts with Andrew Benintendi (.392 wOBA) and Mookie Betts (.386 wOBA) who both smash RH pitching. To be honest, just about anyone who makes the lineup here is in play other than the fringe guys like Josh Rutledge.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.348 0.121 33.6% 7.5% 9.8% 50.7% 2B $3,100 2B $4,300
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.393 0.203 37.6% 7.9% 15.3% 34.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,700
3 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.386 0.202 33.8% 7.4% 10.7% 41.8% OF $3,900 OF $5,500
4 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.344 0.192 37.8% 9.1% 19.2% 48.7% 1B $3,800 1B/OF $5,000
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.340 0.136 28.6% 7.1% 16.5% 48.0% SS $3,500 SS $4,700
6 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.308 0.190 38.8% 7.9% 22.2% 39.6% 1B $3,200 1B $3,900
7 Josh Rutledge RIGHT 0.257 0.105 27.3% 7.1% 40.5% 71.4% 3B $2,300 2B/3B $2,900
8 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.361 0.242 38.8% 10.6% 21.8% 46.6% OF $2,900 OF $4,400
9 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.295 0.122 33.3% 5.8% 26.3% 44.5% C $2,100 C $3,100

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi and Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez and Xander Bogarts

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Minnesota

While I’m not rostering Rick Porcello, I’m not going out of my way to stack against him either. He’s a pretty decent real life pitcher. The one knock against him this year is that he’s allowing hard contact at 39.5%. I wouldn’t mind taking a shot on a guy like Miguel Sano who is generating hard contact at 43% right now. That’s probably as far as I would take it.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.358 0.254 33.4% 8.8% 19.3% 39.4% 2B $4,100 2B $4,800
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.334 0.131 32.9% 14.3% 14.1% 47.4% 1B $2,800 1B $3,700
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.356 0.248 43.0% 12.0% 36.3% 32.8% 3B $3,800 3B $4,500
4 Max Kepler LEFT 0.346 0.212 34.6% 10.9% 18.3% 44.3% OF $3,500 OF $3,800
5 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.331 0.118 29.8% 16.7% 25.2% 39.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,600
6 Jason Castro LEFT 0.324 0.198 37.0% 13.0% 32.5% 42.4% C $2,500 C $2,900
7 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.303 0.106 23.5% 8.3% 13.5% 35.2% SS $2,700 SS $3,400
8 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.322 0.182 33.1% 3.3% 23.8% 45.8% OF $2,600 OF $3,500
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.291 0.184 24.1% 6.4% 36.2% 36.6% OF $2,700 OF $3,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Miguel Sano

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Toronto at Tampa Bay – 4:10 PM ET

Toronto Tampa Bay
torontomlb Marco Estrada tampabaymlb Jake Odorizzi
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -114 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.265 26.1% 8.7% 22.9% 36.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.265 32.0% 6.9% 26.0% 38.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.298 34.8% 8.5% 23.5% 32.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.333 34.4% 6.8% 18.1% 35.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Estrada
marco-estrada-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $10,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.35 3.48 22.8% 9.0% 33.5% 31.3% 21.1%
2017 6 3.62 2.43 25.2% 6.6% 38.4% 25.7% 13.9%

I continue to be amazed by how Marco Estrada gets away with so many fly balls. He’s hovered around 48% for his career. His wOBA against LH (.296) nearly matches his .303 wOBA against RH. Estrada is actually pitching decently well this season with a 2.43 ERA and a 25.2% K rate. The Rays are a decent a matchup here as they rank second against right-handed pitching with a 25.4% K rate. They also don’t feature a lot of power with a .172 ISO.

Quick Breakdown: – Estrada is one of three options that make sense on the early slate. Odorizzi is my top choice followed by Estrada, then Porcello.

Jake Odorizzi
jake-odorizzi-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $7,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.21 3.69 21.5% 7.0% 36.6% 33.7% 16.8%
2017 4 4.14 3.50 20.0% 5.7% 33.3% 31.4% 9.8%

Jake Odorizzi is not off to a great start this year. He’s sporting a 4.14 SIERA and just a 20% K rate. The good news is that he draws a matchup against a Blue Jays team that isn’t all that great right now. They are ninth in K% at 22.7% and own an 81 wRC+. As a reminder, wRC+ is a park-adjusted metric that rates an offense’s ability to generate runs. A score of 100 is supposed to be average. This offense is about 20% below average at generating runs.

Quick Breakdown: – Odorizzi’s poor start has his price way down. He’s my top option on the early three-game slate. He should be able to handle a Blue Jays offense that has gotten things going lately but still isn’t one to be feared.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Jays are not the best offense to target on this slate. Even a struggling Odorizzi is still a really good pitcher. He does have some drastic splits with a .267 wOBA against LH and .333 wOBA against RH hitters. I suppose that puts Jose Bautista and Russell Martin in play as they both hit RH pitching decently well. Some of that is based on their career numbers though and not what they are doing right now. Bautista is striking out over 30% of the time this season. I’m probably not going here myself.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.299 0.116 26.6% 4.9% 15.3% 48.7% OF $3,400 OF $3,200
2 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.352 0.203 39.1% 17.4% 22.1% 36.8% OF $3,800 OF $4,200
3 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.324 0.169 29.8% 11.6% 27.1% 47.8% C $3,100 C $3,600
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.305 0.183 42.2% 8.6% 19.6% 48.8% 1B $2,800 1B $3,600
5 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.314 0.187 41.6% 10.8% 35.7% 27.1% 1B $2,800 1B $3,100
6 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.340 0.161 30.3% 9.4% 17.6% 46.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,600
7 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.250 0.154 31.5% 6.3% 22.8% 49.3% 2B $2,500 2B/SS $2,600
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.326 0.157 30.7% 5.7% 19.7% 46.5% 2B $2,200 2B $3,700
9 Chris Coghlan LEFT 0.279 0.137 28.4% 10.6% 25.5% 45.8% OF $2,200 3B $3,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Tampa Bay

As JMToWin often mentions, fly ball pitchers are a great place to find a home run but stacking against them often leads to several long outs. The Rays that can hit for power are the best options here. Corey Dickerson owns a .341 wOBA against RH pitching. He’s the best option. After that, you could take a look at Evan Longoria on FD where he is cheap but I would look elsewhere (Sano) on DK.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.341 0.263 31.5% 6.7% 22.5% 34.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,800
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.303 0.144 29.8% 9.6% 18.2% 45.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,500
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.350 0.252 36.9% 6.2% 21.4% 32.9% 3B $2,800 3B $4,200
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.339 0.239 36.1% 9.9% 24.9% 45.9% SS $3,300 2B $3,700
5 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.330 0.205 36.7% 9.8% 21.5% 42.7% 1B $2,800 1B $3,300
6 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.331 0.174 31.0% 8.0% 31.4% 40.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,900
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.306 0.213 42.5% 4.3% 30.8% 41.9% SS $3,100 SS $3,300
8 Colby Rasmus LEFT 0.304 0.163 35.7% 10.7% 28.4% 36.8% OF $2,200 OF $3,400
9 Derek Norris RIGHT 0.242 0.138 31.8% 6.5% 32.5% 33.5% C $2,500 C $2,800

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson

Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Cleveland at Kansas City – 4:15 PM ET

Cleveland Kansas City
clevelandmlb Josh Tomlin kansascitymlb Jason Vargas
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-106 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.293 37.2% 2.5% 14.9% 48.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.283 23.8% 0.0% 12.5% 42.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.367 32.2% 2.9% 17.1% 42.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.229 28.7% 5.5% 25.3% 40.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Josh Tomlin
josh-tomlin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $7,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.24 4.40 16.3% 2.8% 43.8% 33.9% 16.4%
2017 5 3.64 8.87 15.6% 2.8% 52.9% 37.5% 8.0%

The final game of the early slate features an over/under of 8 with Jason Vargas against Josh Tomlin. Through five starts this season Josh Tomlin has an 8.87 ERA. His SIERA of 3.64 says he’s been unlucky. Tomlin has great control with a 2.8% walk rate. For our purposes though, we probably aren’t interested here as he also owns a K rate of just 15.6% this year. The Royals are not a great offense against RH pitching with a 77 wRC+ and a .286 wOBA though.

Quick Breakdown: – Tomlin probably isn’t going to get blown up in this spot. His ground ball rate of 52.9% tells us that. He doesn’t really have any upside though without the ability to strikeout many batters.

Jason Vargas
jason-vargas-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $7,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 3.96 2.25 23.4% 6.4% 36.4% 33.3% 15.2%
2017 5 3.43 1.42 23.6% 4.1% 42.0% 25.8% 18.0%

Jason Vargas gets a similar recommendation to Tomlin. He’s pitching well this season with a 1.42 ERA, 23.6% K rate and 4.1% BB rate. He also doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact at just 25.8%. With that said, he doesn’t draw the best matchup. The Indians have a 19.2% K rate against LH pitching this season. They haven’t hit all that well with a .283 wOBA but there are plenty of bats in this lineup that can get the job done.

Quick Breakdown: – The safest options in the early slate are Odorizzi, Estrada and Porcello. You’re taking on quite a bit of risk if you decide to go anywhere else.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

There are several Indians that hit LH pitching well including Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Ramirez. They grade out as somewhat mediocre options here though. The biggest problem for the Indians is they are price too close to the Red Sox and other bats that are in a better spot. You could certainly get away with using a couple here on a three-game slate though.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.304 0.120 29.6% 11.0% 8.9% 55.6% 1B $3,800 1B $4,500
2 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.329 0.138 30.8% 7.0% 15.1% 47.1% SS $4,100 SS $4,900
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.320 0.135 40.7% 9.5% 26.2% 40.7% OF $4,000 OF $5,000
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.362 0.214 40.9% 19.0% 22.6% 38.2% 1B $3,100 1B $4,700
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.356 0.163 34.3% 7.9% 13.5% 41.2% 3B $4,000 2B/3B $4,600
6 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.320 0.168 28.2% 6.0% 25.3% 43.3% 2B $2,800 2B $4,400
7 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.385 0.191 28.7% 4.7% 13.5% 36.0% OF $2,100 OF $3,300
8 Abraham Almonte SWITCH 0.301 0.143 27.0% 6.5% 23.9% 54.8% OF $2,700 OF $3,400
9 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.339 0.176 26.2% 6.4% 23.4% 42.2% C $2,600 C $3,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor and Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Kansas City

The Royals have not been a very great offense but Josh Tomlin does have some really drastic splits. He has a .367 wOBA against RH hitting compared .293 against LH. Salvador Perez is the best option here as he hits RH pitching with a .313 wOBA. Even with Tomlin’s reverse splits, you could get away with Mike Moustakas here as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.288 0.110 32.1% 5.0% 20.3% 44.4% 2B $2,700 2B/OF $3,600
2 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.362 0.286 35.8% 7.2% 12.0% 36.6% 3B $3,400 3B $4,000
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.307 0.093 27.5% 7.5% 21.1% 50.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,100
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.343 0.165 35.6% 9.7% 18.5% 57.8% 1B $3,000 1B $4,100
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.313 0.198 36.0% 3.1% 20.7% 34.8% C $2,900 C $3,700
6 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.298 0.151 35.8% 9.8% 27.5% 38.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,800
7 Jorge Bonifacio RIGHT 0.377 0.240 26.3% 10.7% 21.4% 36.8% OF $2,400 OF $3,200
8 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.324 0.275 39.8% 9.9% 30.3% 25.6% 1B $2,700 OF $3,500
9 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.274 0.083 20.6% 3.7% 15.1% 47.7% SS $2,300 SS $3,400

Elite Plays – Salvador Perez

Secondary Plays – Mike Moustakas

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Washington at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Washington Philadelphia
washingtonmlb A.J. Cole philadelphiamlb Vince Velasquez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-105 8.5
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.331 25.0% 9.8% 23.9% 31.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 32.7% 10.8% 25.6% 37.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.325 26.4% 6.6% 22.4% 32.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.322 32.2% 7.1% 28.0% 36.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

A.J. Cole
a-j-cole-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 8 4.33 5.17 23.2% 8.3% 31.9% 25.7% 18.6%

The first game of the late slate features A.J. Cole against Vincent Velasquez. This slate features both Clayton Kershaw and a game at Coors field. A.J. Cole had a .331 wOBA against LH hitting and a .325 wOBA against RH last season. He’s mildly interesting here as a SP2 because of the matchup. The Phillies rank 7th with a 24.1% K rate against RH pitching. Cole had a 23.2% K rate last season in eight starts.

Quick Breakdown: – Even though Cole is just making a spot start here he’s interesting as an SP2. He already owns a respectable K% and the Phillies offense can help somewhat in that department. You could certainly do a lot worse at SP2 on DraftKings tonight.

Vince Velasquez
vincent-velasquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.62 4.12 27.6% 8.2% 34.8% 32.6% 18.4%
2017 5 4.59 5.47 22.6% 13.0% 47.2% 31.9% 13.9%

Vincent Velasquez had a .343 wOBA against LH and a .322 wOBA against RH last season. He takes on a Nationals offense that has the second-best wOBA against RH pitching at .358. Velasquez hasn’t been all that great this season generating soft contact at just 13.2%. With Velasquez’ strikeout numbers down this season and a tough matchup against the Nationals, he’s easy to avoid tonight.

Quick Breakdown: – Velasquez might be a better pitcher than his current season numbers show but the matchup here tells us to look somewhere else.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

There are plenty of National hitters that smash RH pitching. That starts with Trea Turner who owns a .411 wOBA against RH pitching. With that said, there’s a game at Coors Field tonight. I don’t see any reason to go out of the way to stack Nationals tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.411 0.260 34.4% 5.0% 18.2% 43.2% SS $4,200 SS $4,900 IF/OF $9,600
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.298 0.133 31.9% 11.0% 24.8% 42.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.379 0.231 35.5% 19.2% 15.6% 39.3% OF $5,000 OF $5,200 RF $10,000
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.317 0.185 35.1% 5.1% 24.0% 45.3% 1B $4,400 1B $4,400 1B $8,700
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.416 0.255 39.0% 6.0% 9.5% 35.5% 2B $4,100 2B $4,600 2B $8,800
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.333 0.173 34.6% 8.7% 18.7% 37.9% 3B $3,000 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
7 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.254 0.107 31.9% 5.5% 29.8% 43.9% OF $3,200 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.321 0.180 32.5% 7.3% 17.4% 37.3% C $2,900 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 A.J. Cole RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 40.0% 100.0% P $5,700 P $5,400 P $10,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Philadelphia

The Phillies get to take on a career minor leaguer in A.J. Cole but his numbers say he’s not a terrible pitcher. You could certainly use a Philly value bat or two here but there isn’t anyone that screams start me.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.339 0.119 26.5% 11.0% 19.3% 52.6% 2B $3,500 2B $3,400 2B $6,600
2 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.278 0.104 30.3% 9.1% 32.4% 50.8% OF $3,500 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.349 0.157 29.0% 9.4% 20.4% 43.0% OF $3,700 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
4 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.296 0.153 29.9% 6.8% 16.0% 44.0% 3B $3,600 3B $4,100 3B $8,100
5 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.331 0.197 38.1% 10.2% 27.3% 39.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
6 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.313 0.209 37.0% 5.3% 23.5% 41.7% 1B $2,800 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
7 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.302 0.171 33.2% 6.8% 28.0% 47.4% C $2,700 C $3,200 C $6,400
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.304 0.181 28.1% 4.6% 22.0% 39.9% SS $2,800 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
9 Vince Velasquez RIGHT 0.166 0.000 8.0% 2.6% 33.3% 68.2% P $7,400 P $8,100 P $15,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability -%{color:orange}*ORANGE*% – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Milwaukee Pittsburgh
milwaukeemlb Matt Garza pittsburghmlb Gerrit Cole
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-156 8.0
Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.364 38.7% 10.4% 12.1% 51.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.358 36.9% 6.7% 23.6% 40.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.301 33.8% 5.2% 19.5% 57.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.286 25.0% 6.5% 17.1% 50.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Garza
matt-garza-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 4.60 4.51 15.2% 7.8% 54.8% 34.9% 19.0%
2017 2 3.45 3.38 23.9% 6.5% 50.0% 50.0% 6.3%

The second game of the late slate features on over/under of eight. These are two serviceable pitcher against two offenses that aren’t that great. We’ll start with Matt Garza. Last season Garza had a 54% GB rate and allowed hard contact at 34.9%. Through two starts this season, the hard contact is up to 50% while the ground balls remain about the same. The Pirates are second to last in the league in K% versus RH at 16.9% this season. They are a below average offense though with an 84 wRC+. This isn’t a spot to use Garza but it isn’t that great of a spot to pick on him either.

Quick Breakdown: – The lack of strikeouts from the Pirates along with Garza’s hard contact rate tells us we probably want to look elsewhere tonight.

Gerrit Cole
gerrit-cole-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,500 Salary: $9,600 Salary: $18,400
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 21 4.24 3.88 19.4% 7.1% 45.6% 30.1% 21.3%
2017 6 3.55 3.50 23.0% 4.7% 46.1% 31.8% 22.4%

With someone like Gerrit Cole who struggled with injuries last season I like to look at current year stats. Cole has a 3.55 SIERA which almost matches his ERA. He has a 23% K rate and is limiting walks to 4% in six starts. The Brewers are a popular team to pick on as they own a 25% K rate against RH pitching. There are a couple of LH bats in this lineup that could give Cole some trouble but he’s still a very solid choice tonight.

Quick Breakdown: – As mid-tier options go, Gerrit Cole ranks behind Lance McCullers but he’s firmly in play tonight on both single and multi-pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The one thing that should concern anyone rostering Gerrit Cole is that he’s allowing 40% hard contact to LH hitters this season. That could be a problem against Eric Thames who owns a .459 wOBA and 49.1% hard contact rate against RH pitching. It is worth noting though that Thames did most of his damage this season against the Reds. He’s been mediocre against other pitching staffs. He’s priced close enough to the Coors hitters as well as others in a better spot. That makes him a secondary option.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.336 0.151 35.7% 11.1% 26.1% 60.6% 2B $3,200 2B $4,100 2B $8,000
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.459 0.366 49.1% 17.2% 20.7% 41.5% 1B $4,000 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.367 0.238 34.6% 7.7% 19.8% 55.8% OF $3,700 OF $4,500 LF $8,800
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.326 0.193 34.0% 8.5% 23.3% 39.1% 3B $3,700 3B $3,500 3B $6,900
5 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.306 0.149 29.7% 5.4% 20.2% 48.1% OF $2,900 3B/OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,400
6 Jett Bandy RIGHT 0.299 0.154 26.8% 3.8% 17.0% 30.9% C $2,800 C $2,500 C $4,800
7 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.296 0.153 36.5% 11.8% 36.3% 46.0% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.252 0.140 23.2% 3.9% 23.4% 54.2% SS $2,300 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
9 Matt Garza RIGHT 0.126 0.000 12.5% 10.5% 47.4% 100.0% P $7,200 P $6,400 P $12,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames and Ryan Braun

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Pittsburgh

The way to pick on Matt Garza is with LH batters. He owns a 12.1% K rate compared to 19.5% against RH. He also has a .367 wOBA against LH. The Pirates don’t have a lot of great LH (or switch) hitters but they have a couple. Josh Bell is the best option here with a .352 wOBA against RH pitching. Assuming he’s in the lineup, I also don’t mind John Jaso on FD at almost minimum price. He has a .338 wOBA against RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.295 0.100 27.1% 3.6% 14.3% 44.3% 3B $3,400 2B/3B $3,600 2B $7,200
2 John Jaso LEFT 0.338 0.151 30.2% 10.5% 17.0% 49.1% 1B $2,300 1B/OF $3,000 1B $6,000
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.320 0.163 35.1% 9.6% 21.4% 36.3% OF $3,800 OF $4,400 RF $8,400
4 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.327 0.190 35.3% 9.3% 17.1% 39.9% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 LF $7,800
5 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.352 0.152 32.9% 14.4% 14.9% 48.9% 1B $2,900 1B $3,200 IF/OF $6,400
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.303 0.090 26.5% 13.4% 18.6% 54.3% C $2,700 C $3,100 C $6,000
7 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.289 0.096 24.8% 8.0% 14.2% 49.8% SS $2,700 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
8 Alen Hanson SWITCH 0.258 0.109 25.0% 4.2% 20.8% 50.0% 2B $2,200 2B $3,400 SS $6,600
9 Gerrit Cole RIGHT 0.151 0.000 4.8% 0.0% 43.2% 83.3% P $9,500 P $9,600 P $18,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell and John Jaso

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.