MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 10th

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Boston at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Boston Toronto
bostonmlb Steven Wright torontomlb Marco Estrada
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -130 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.299 4 19.0% 9.8% SP vs. Left 0.276 15 17.1% 7.1%
SP vs. Right 0.330 8 14.7% 7.6% SP vs. Right 0.276 9 19.3% 8.2%
Batter Splits Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Steven Wright
steven-wright-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,500 Salary:$5,900
FPPG:20.9 FPPG:0.0
Pitcher Rating:
Statistics SIERA K% BB% LD% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2015 4.60 16.8% 8.7% 13.7% 43.2% 1 5

Taking pitchers in Toronto is already risky business to begin with but doing so with a pitcher of Wrights caliber is just something you do not do. In fact Wright is a guy we want to target with hitters today.

Marco Estrada
marco-estrada-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,700 Salary:$6,700
FPPG:26.6 FPPG:0.0
Pitcher Rating:
Statistics SIERA K% BB% LD% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2015 4.64 18.1% 7.6% 15.5% 32.2% 8 3

On the surface it looks like Estrada had a pretty solid year for the Blue Jays last season coming over from Milwaukee. The thing is there are signs of regression with him and it all starts with his .216 BABIP which is going to rise. Another thing to note is that Estrada was a pitcher we would target for HR and last year those numbers dipped as well. With a modest SIERA and xFIP chances are pretty good that his luck will run out at some point and we should get more typical Estrada numbers.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are a team I have no problems loading up on with most of the people looking to the other side of this game. As I mentioned, Estrada is a guy that should show some signs of regression and these big bats are more than capable of hitting him.

Projected Lineup

# Player wOBA vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Mookie Betts 0.348 OF $4,000 OF $5,000
2 Dustin Pedroia 0.343 2B $2,800 2B $4,300
3 Xander Bogaerts 0.320 SS $3,700 SS $4,000
4 David Ortiz 0.413 1B $4,000 1B $4,700
5 Hanley Ramirez 0.312 1B $3,100 OF $4,400
6 Travis Shaw 0.314 3B $2,600 1B $3,600
7 Brock Holt 0.310 2B $2,900 2B/3B $3,300
8 Ryan Hanigan 0.269 C $2,200 C $2,800
9 Jackie Bradley 0.337 OF $3,100 OF $3,300

Elite Plays

David Ortiz

Secondary Plays

Hanley Ramirez
Mookie Betts

Toronto

I am not telling you anything you don’t already know but make sure to get some exposure to Blue Jays bats today. Outside of Colorado this has the highest total on the board and should be chock full of fantasy production.

Projected Lineup

# Player wOBA vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Kevin Pillar 0.313 OF $3,100 OF $3,900
2 Josh Donaldson 0.390 3B $5,200 3B $5,100
3 Jose Bautista 0.395 OF $4,400 OF $5,000
4 Edwin Encarnacion 0.399 1B $4,100 1B $5,200
5 Troy Tulowitzki 0.319 SS $3,300 SS $4,400
6 Michael Saunders 0.196 OF $3,100 OF $3,700
7 Russell Martin 0.322 C $2,800 C $3,900
8 Ryan Goins 0.308 2B $2,200 2B/SS $2,800
9 Darwin Barney 0.284 SS $2,400 2B $2,600

Elite Plays

Josh Donaldson
Jose Bautista

Secondary Plays

Troy Tulowitzki
Edwin Encarnacion
Kevin Pillar

Philadelphia at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Philadelphia NY Mets
philadelphiamlb Jeremy Hellickson nymetsmlb Matt Harvey
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM -260 6.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.339 8 17.3% 8.1% SP vs. Left 0.295 15 25.5% 6.9%
SP vs. Right 0.330 14 20.3% 5.8% SP vs. Right 0.237 3 24.3% 2.9%
Batter Splits Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeremy Hellickson
jeremy-hellickson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$7,100
FPPG:36.0 FPPG:23.7
Pitcher Rating:
Statistics SIERA K% BB% LD% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2015 4.14 19.0% 6.8% 21.1% 42.4% 20 15

He looked really good as the opening day starter for the Phillies against the Reds going 6 innings giving up no earned runs on 3 hits with 6 strikeouts. I would pump the breaks on any thoughts of a return to his 2011 & 2012 numbers but it is reasonable to expect him to be a reliable inning eater that keeps them in games. For now we are in a holding pattern with Hellickson in terms of fantasy usability.

Matt Harvey
matt-harvey-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,700 Salary:$11,900
FPPG:14.0 FPPG:4.8
Pitcher Rating:
Statistics SIERA K% BB% LD% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2015 3.23 24.9% 4.9% 17.9% 46.0% 29 21

Harvey was struggling a bit with his command in the opener against the Royals and should have an easier time navigating the Phillies lineup today. Virtually every usable stat for DFS suggests that Harvey is a great play today holding both left and right handed bats under league average for wOBA while generating a very health K% that should hover around 25% for the year.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Facing Matt Harvey there is not a lot to like here. In fact I do not like any of it.

Projected Lineup

# Player wOBA vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Freddy Galvis 0.290 SS $2,500 SS $2,900
2 Cesar Hernandez 0.292 2B $2,200 2B $2,800
3 Odubel Herrera 0.339 OF $2,400 OF $3,100
4 Ryan Howard 0.341 1B $2,300 1B $3,500
5 Andres Blanco 0.345 3B $2,200 2B/3B $2,600
6 Cedric Hunter OF $2,400 OF $2,800
7 Cameron Rupp 0.259 C $2,200 C $2,500
8 Emmanuel Burriss 0.612 2B $2,200 2B/SS $2,300
9 Jeremy Hellickson P $6,900 P $7,100

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

None

NY Mets

Even with the chances that Hellickson is able to get things going this season he will have a tough time navigating this Mets lineup today. I am not saying we absolutely need exposure but some is probably a good idea.

Projected Lineup

# Player wOBA vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Curtis Granderson 0.384 OF $3,200 OF $4,500
2 David Wright 0.334 3B $2,900 3B $4,400
3 Yoenis Cespedes 0.383 OF $3,800 OF $4,600
4 Lucas Duda 0.354 1B $2,700 1B $4,300
5 Neil Walker 0.340 2B $2,800 2B $3,900
6 Michael Conforto 0.371 OF $2,600 OF $3,500
7 Asdrubal Cabrera 0.323 SS $2,700 SS $3,600
8 Travis D’Arnaud 0.329 C $2,800 C $3,700
9 Matt Harvey P $10,700 P $11,900

Elite Plays

Lucas Duda

Secondary Plays

Neil Walker
Yoenis Cespedes

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Pittsburgh Cincinnati
pittsburghmlb Jeff Locke cincinnatimlb Tim Melville
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT -125 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.347 5 11.1% 7.6% SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right 0.312 10 19.5% 8.3% SP vs. Right
Batter Splits Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeff Locke
jeff-locke-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,900 Salary:$7,000
FPPG:24.5 FPPG:0.0
Pitcher Rating:
Statistics SIERA K% BB% LD% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2015 4.18 17.5% 8.2% 24.1% 51.0% 17 14

This will be his first start of the year and while he is not a great pitcher Locke is not terrible either. He will always be a guy you have to pick your spots with considering his low K% but an extremely high BABIP last season suggests we will see a little better year for him with some of the surface stats like ERA.

Tim Melville
tim-melville-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$5,100
FPPG:0.0 FPPG:0.0
Pitcher Rating:
Statistics SIERA K% BB% LD% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2015 22 25

Melville will be making his major league debut here today and the outlook does not look promising after taking a glance at his minor league numbers. He has a low K% and high BB% which is a tell tale sign we are in for some run producing at bats for the Pirates in this one.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

With all eyes on the games in Toronto and Colorado don’t be surprised to see the Pirates put up a big number here in Cincy. You do not have to use them in cash but if you play in tournaments this is the perfect example of a good probability at lower ownership.

Projected Lineup

# Player wOBA vs. LHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 John Jaso 0.422 1B $2,600 OF $3,500
2 Andrew McCutchen 0.397 OF $4,700 OF $5,100
3 David Freese 0.316 3B $2,700 3B $3,500
4 Starling Marte 0.313 OF $3,700 OF $4,700
5 Francisco Cervelli 0.370 C $2,500 C $3,400
6 Gregory Polanco 0.234 OF $3,400 OF $4,500
7 Josh Harrison 0.333 2B $2,400 2B/3B $3,900
8 Jordy Mercer 0.323 SS $2,400 SS $3,200
9 Jeff Locke P $5,900 P $7,000

Elite Plays

Andrew McCutchen

Secondary Plays

Starling Marte
Gregory Polanco

Cincinnati

The Reds lineup is already weak enough but even more so when facing a left handed pitcher. With that said there are a few tournament guys like Cozart, Suarez, and Mesoraco.

Projected Lineup

# Player wOBA vs. LHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Zack Cozart 0.384 SS $2,700 SS $3,400
2 Eugenio Suarez 0.354 3B $3,300 SS $3,800
3 Joey Votto 0.436 1B $3,800 1B $4,700
4 Brandon Phillips 0.310 2B $2,800 2B $3,700
5 Devin Mesoraco 0.228 C $2,300 C $3,300
6 Jay Bruce 0.288 OF $3,600 OF $4,000
7 Adam Duvall 0.233 OF $2,200 OF $3,400
8 Tim Melville P $5,000 P $5,100
9 Billy Hamilton 0.277 OF $2,600 OF $4,300

Elite Plays

Secondary Plays

Devin Mesoraco

Miami at Washington – 1:35 PM ET

Miami Washington
miamimlb Tom Koehler washingtonmlb Joe Ross
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS -145 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.332 16 18.1% 10.0% SP vs. Left 0.351 4 17.5% 9.7%
SP vs. Right 0.313 6 16.2% 9.2% SP vs. Right 0.205 3 26.3% 3.8%
Batter Splits Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Tom Koehler
tom-koehler-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,200 Salary:$7,100
FPPG:26.6 FPPG:0.0
Pitcher Rating:
Statistics SIERA K% BB% LD% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2015 4.67 17.1% 9.6% 18.4% 46.0% 18 28

Koehler may throw a lot of innings for the Marlins but that does not mean we can use him in DFS. His numbers are average at best and with a Nationals team that is bursting at the seams for a big game I am more inclined to side with them. He is a low strikeout guy whose xFIP and SIERA tell the tale of a back end starter who will give up the occasional homer.

Joe Ross
joe-ross-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$7,800
FPPG:23.8 FPPG:0.0
Pitcher Rating:
Statistics SIERA K% BB% LD% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2015 3.66 22.0% 6.7% 16.4% 49.8% 29 6

If you read my FanDuel pitching primer then you know how much I like Ross coming into the season. Not only does he have a really solid offense to put him in position to rack up wins but he is pretty good pitcher himself. This season it will be interesting to see if Ross will attack with the slider a bit more as he was able to produce a 25.8% swinging strike rate on it in 2015 as opposed to average rates on his other pitches. All things considered Ross is one of my favorite pitchers on the day.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

You can never count out guys like Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton but overall this is not a team I want heavy exposure to today. Ross should be able to control most of the lineup and as long as he is careful to the star hitters the runs should be limited.

Projected Lineup

# Player wOBA vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dee Gordon 0.329 2B $3,700 2B $4,300
2 Marcell Ozuna 0.283 OF $3,000 OF $3,300
3 Christian Yelich 0.354 OF $3,500 OF $3,700
4 Giancarlo Stanton 0.375 OF $4,800 OF $4,700
5 Martin Prado 0.305 3B $2,700 3B $3,200
6 Justin Bour 0.359 1B $2,600 1B $2,800
7 Jacob Realmuto 0.289 C $2,400 C $2,800
8 Adeiny Hechavarria 0.274 SS $2,600 SS $2,600
9 Tom Koehler P $7,200 P $7,100

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Giancarlo Stanton
Dee Gordon

Washington

This is a team that I feel is ready to break out in a big way on offense this season. Anytime they are facing an average pitcher that does not miss a ton of bats I am going to have some exposure.

Projected Lineup

# Player wOBA vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Michael Taylor 0.271 OF $2,200 OF $3,600
2 Anthony Rendon 0.310 3B $2,900 2B/3B $4,400
3 Bryce Harper 0.478 OF $5,200 OF $5,300
4 Ryan Zimmerman 0.290 1B $2,800 1B $4,000
5 Daniel Murphy 0.342 2B $3,300 2B/3B $4,300
6 Jayson Werth 0.293 OF $2,700 OF $4,300
7 Wilson Ramos 0.264 C $2,300 C $3,500
8 Danny Espinosa 0.302 SS $2,300 2B $3,100
9 Joe Ross P $6,800 P $7,800

Elite Plays

Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays

Ryan Zimmerman
Anthony Rendon

St. Louis at Atlanta – 1:35 PM ET

St. Louis Atlanta
stlouismlb Adam Wainwright atlantamlb Williams Perez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL -180 7.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.288 0 15.2% 4.4% SP vs. Left 0.374 9 12.8% 9.4%
SP vs. Right 0.238 0 20.0% 3.1% SP vs. Right 0.330 4 15.7% 10.5%
Batter Splits Batter Splits
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Adam Wainwright
adam-wainwright-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,500 Salary:$10,000
FPPG:18.0 FPPG:7.5
Pitcher Rating:
Statistics SIERA K% BB% LD% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2015 3.45 18.0% 3.6% 26.2% 51.2% 27 2

Home town boy Adam Wainwright will be back in Georgia today to face the Atlanta Braves. He did not look that sharp at times against the Pirates in his first start of the season but weather could have been a factor. With a gametime temperature around 60 today that should not be an issue here. Even with all of the severe injuries he continues to defy the odds posting some excellent numbers. Until we see a sustained sign of regression I am rolling with the Cardinals opening day starter as a good fantasy option.

Williams Perez
williams-perez-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,800 Salary:$6,300
FPPG:20.3 FPPG:0.0
Pitcher Rating:
Statistics SIERA K% BB% LD% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2015 4.87 14.2% 9.9% 20.3% 50.9% 12 11

Perez is a tough one to figure out for me. I do not think he is nearly as bad as he pitched last year for the Braves but he also is not a top of the rotation guy. What I think we see from Perez this season is flashes and a slightly increased K% from last year. With that said the Cardinals bats seem to have woken up after the three pinch hit home runs the other night and I have no problem with taking them here.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

As a Cardinals fan I am holding out hope that the bats will stay hot but the reality is that this team is going to be volatile all season long and probably need another big bat added.

Projected Lineup

# Player wOBA vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Matt Carpenter 0.394 3B $3,200 3B $4,400
2 Stephen Piscotty 0.360 OF $2,900 1B/OF $3,800
3 Matt Holliday 0.353 OF $2,900 OF $3,600
4 Matt Adams 0.293 1B $2,300 1B $3,300
5 Randal Grichuk 0.381 OF $2,300 OF $3,400
6 Yadier Molina 0.298 C $2,500 C $3,400
7 Kolten Wong 0.335 2B $2,500 2B $3,800
8 Jedd Gyorko 0.284 SS $2,200 2B/SS $3,200
9 Adam Wainwright P $9,500 P $10,000

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Matt Carpenter

Atlanta

Does anyone else feel sorry for Freddie Freeman? I mean they did try to add a couple bats but this poor guy is an elite hitter in the middle of a horrible overall lineup.

Projected Lineup

# Player wOBA vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ender Inciarte 0.359 OF $2,900 OF $3,700
2 Erick Aybar 0.288 SS $2,400 SS $3,300
3 Freddie Freeman 0.390 1B $3,100 1B $4,100
4 Adonis Garcia 0.302 3B $2,300 3B $2,700
5 Nick Markakis 0.347 OF $2,800 OF $3,600
6 Hector Olivera 0.355 OF $2,200 3B $3,100
7 A.J. Pierzynski 0.343 C $2,200 C $3,100
8 Jace Peterson 0.301 2B $2,300 2B $2,900
9 Williams Perez P $4,800 P $6,300

Elite Plays

None

Secondary Plays

Freddie Freeman

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About the Author

louiescards
Andrew Cook (louiescards)

Andrew “LouiesCards” Cook is a DFS veteran who has been playing since 2009. You will see him grinding MLB, NBA, and NFL with a main focus on DraftKings. Over the years he has held several roles at RotoGrinders helping write articles and features, both in-front and behind-the-scenes. Andrew was able to throw the first pitch out at a St. Louis Cardinals game, courtesy of DraftKings. You can follow Andrew on twitter @louiescards