MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 10th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Boston at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET
Boston | Toronto | ||||||||
![]() | Steven Wright | ![]() | Marco Estrada | ||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
TOR -130 | 9.5 | ||||||||
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left | 0.299 | 4 | 19.0% | 9.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.276 | 15 | 17.1% | 7.1% |
SP vs. Right | 0.330 | 8 | 14.7% | 7.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.276 | 9 | 19.3% | 8.2% |
Batter Splits | Batter Splits | ||||||||
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
Steven Wright | |||||||
![]() | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Salary:$6,500 | Salary:$5,900 | ||||||
FPPG:20.9 | FPPG:0.0 | ||||||
Pitcher Rating: | |||||||
Statistics | SIERA | K% | BB% | LD% | GB% | O-wOBA | O-K% |
2015 | 4.60 | 16.8% | 8.7% | 13.7% | 43.2% | 1 | 5 |
Taking pitchers in Toronto is already risky business to begin with but doing so with a pitcher of Wrights caliber is just something you do not do. In fact Wright is a guy we want to target with hitters today.
Marco Estrada | |||||||
![]() | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Salary:$8,700 | Salary:$6,700 | ||||||
FPPG:26.6 | FPPG:0.0 | ||||||
Pitcher Rating: | |||||||
Statistics | SIERA | K% | BB% | LD% | GB% | O-wOBA | O-K% |
2015 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 7.6% | 15.5% | 32.2% | 8 | 3 |
On the surface it looks like Estrada had a pretty solid year for the Blue Jays last season coming over from Milwaukee. The thing is there are signs of regression with him and it all starts with his .216 BABIP which is going to rise. Another thing to note is that Estrada was a pitcher we would target for HR and last year those numbers dipped as well. With a modest SIERA and xFIP chances are pretty good that his luck will run out at some point and we should get more typical Estrada numbers.
Batter Grind Down
Boston
The Red Sox are a team I have no problems loading up on with most of the people looking to the other side of this game. As I mentioned, Estrada is a guy that should show some signs of regression and these big bats are more than capable of hitting him.
Projected Lineup
# | Player | wOBA vs. RHP | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mookie Betts | 0.348 | OF | $4,000 | OF | $5,000 |
2 | Dustin Pedroia | 0.343 | 2B | $2,800 | 2B | $4,300 |
3 | Xander Bogaerts | 0.320 | SS | $3,700 | SS | $4,000 |
4 | David Ortiz | 0.413 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $4,700 |
5 | Hanley Ramirez | 0.312 | 1B | $3,100 | OF | $4,400 |
6 | Travis Shaw | 0.314 | 3B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,600 |
7 | Brock Holt | 0.310 | 2B | $2,900 | 2B/3B | $3,300 |
8 | Ryan Hanigan | 0.269 | C | $2,200 | C | $2,800 |
9 | Jackie Bradley | 0.337 | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,300 |
Elite Plays
Secondary Plays
Toronto
I am not telling you anything you don’t already know but make sure to get some exposure to Blue Jays bats today. Outside of Colorado this has the highest total on the board and should be chock full of fantasy production.
Projected Lineup
# | Player | wOBA vs. RHP | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kevin Pillar | 0.313 | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,900 |
2 | Josh Donaldson | 0.390 | 3B | $5,200 | 3B | $5,100 |
3 | Jose Bautista | 0.395 | OF | $4,400 | OF | $5,000 |
4 | Edwin Encarnacion | 0.399 | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $5,200 |
5 | Troy Tulowitzki | 0.319 | SS | $3,300 | SS | $4,400 |
6 | Michael Saunders | 0.196 | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,700 |
7 | Russell Martin | 0.322 | C | $2,800 | C | $3,900 |
8 | Ryan Goins | 0.308 | 2B | $2,200 | 2B/SS | $2,800 |
9 | Darwin Barney | 0.284 | SS | $2,400 | 2B | $2,600 |
Elite Plays
Secondary Plays
Troy Tulowitzki
Edwin Encarnacion
Kevin Pillar
Philadelphia at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET
Philadelphia | NY Mets | ||||||||
![]() | Jeremy Hellickson | ![]() | Matt Harvey | ||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
NYM -260 | 6.5 | ||||||||
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left | 0.339 | 8 | 17.3% | 8.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.295 | 15 | 25.5% | 6.9% |
SP vs. Right | 0.330 | 14 | 20.3% | 5.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 3 | 24.3% | 2.9% |
Batter Splits | Batter Splits | ||||||||
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
Jeremy Hellickson | |||||||
![]() | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Salary:$6,900 | Salary:$7,100 | ||||||
FPPG:36.0 | FPPG:23.7 | ||||||
Pitcher Rating: | |||||||
Statistics | SIERA | K% | BB% | LD% | GB% | O-wOBA | O-K% |
2015 | 4.14 | 19.0% | 6.8% | 21.1% | 42.4% | 20 | 15 |
He looked really good as the opening day starter for the Phillies against the Reds going 6 innings giving up no earned runs on 3 hits with 6 strikeouts. I would pump the breaks on any thoughts of a return to his 2011 & 2012 numbers but it is reasonable to expect him to be a reliable inning eater that keeps them in games. For now we are in a holding pattern with Hellickson in terms of fantasy usability.
Matt Harvey | |||||||
![]() | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Salary:$10,700 | Salary:$11,900 | ||||||
FPPG:14.0 | FPPG:4.8 | ||||||
Pitcher Rating: | |||||||
Statistics | SIERA | K% | BB% | LD% | GB% | O-wOBA | O-K% |
2015 | 3.23 | 24.9% | 4.9% | 17.9% | 46.0% | 29 | 21 |
Harvey was struggling a bit with his command in the opener against the Royals and should have an easier time navigating the Phillies lineup today. Virtually every usable stat for DFS suggests that Harvey is a great play today holding both left and right handed bats under league average for wOBA while generating a very health K% that should hover around 25% for the year.
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
Facing Matt Harvey there is not a lot to like here. In fact I do not like any of it.
Projected Lineup
# | Player | wOBA vs. RHP | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Freddy Galvis | 0.290 | SS | $2,500 | SS | $2,900 |
2 | Cesar Hernandez | 0.292 | 2B | $2,200 | 2B | $2,800 |
3 | Odubel Herrera | 0.339 | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,100 |
4 | Ryan Howard | 0.341 | 1B | $2,300 | 1B | $3,500 |
5 | Andres Blanco | 0.345 | 3B | $2,200 | 2B/3B | $2,600 |
6 | Cedric Hunter | OF | $2,400 | OF | $2,800 | |
7 | Cameron Rupp | 0.259 | C | $2,200 | C | $2,500 |
8 | Emmanuel Burriss | 0.612 | 2B | $2,200 | 2B/SS | $2,300 |
9 | Jeremy Hellickson | P | $6,900 | P | $7,100 |
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
None
NY Mets
Even with the chances that Hellickson is able to get things going this season he will have a tough time navigating this Mets lineup today. I am not saying we absolutely need exposure but some is probably a good idea.
Projected Lineup
# | Player | wOBA vs. RHP | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Curtis Granderson | 0.384 | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,500 |
2 | David Wright | 0.334 | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $4,400 |
3 | Yoenis Cespedes | 0.383 | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,600 |
4 | Lucas Duda | 0.354 | 1B | $2,700 | 1B | $4,300 |
5 | Neil Walker | 0.340 | 2B | $2,800 | 2B | $3,900 |
6 | Michael Conforto | 0.371 | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,500 |
7 | Asdrubal Cabrera | 0.323 | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,600 |
8 | Travis D’Arnaud | 0.329 | C | $2,800 | C | $3,700 |
9 | Matt Harvey | P | $10,700 | P | $11,900 |
Elite Plays
Secondary Plays
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET
Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | ||||||||
![]() | Jeff Locke | ![]() | Tim Melville | ||||||
LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
PIT -125 | 8.5 | ||||||||
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left | 0.347 | 5 | 11.1% | 7.6% | SP vs. Left | ||||
SP vs. Right | 0.312 | 10 | 19.5% | 8.3% | SP vs. Right | ||||
Batter Splits | Batter Splits | ||||||||
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
Jeff Locke | |||||||
![]() | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Salary:$5,900 | Salary:$7,000 | ||||||
FPPG:24.5 | FPPG:0.0 | ||||||
Pitcher Rating: | |||||||
Statistics | SIERA | K% | BB% | LD% | GB% | O-wOBA | O-K% |
2015 | 4.18 | 17.5% | 8.2% | 24.1% | 51.0% | 17 | 14 |
This will be his first start of the year and while he is not a great pitcher Locke is not terrible either. He will always be a guy you have to pick your spots with considering his low K% but an extremely high BABIP last season suggests we will see a little better year for him with some of the surface stats like ERA.
Tim Melville | |||||||
![]() | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Salary:$5,000 | Salary:$5,100 | ||||||
FPPG:0.0 | FPPG:0.0 | ||||||
Pitcher Rating: | |||||||
Statistics | SIERA | K% | BB% | LD% | GB% | O-wOBA | O-K% |
2015 | 22 | 25 |
Melville will be making his major league debut here today and the outlook does not look promising after taking a glance at his minor league numbers. He has a low K% and high BB% which is a tell tale sign we are in for some run producing at bats for the Pirates in this one.
Batter Grind Down
Pittsburgh
With all eyes on the games in Toronto and Colorado don’t be surprised to see the Pirates put up a big number here in Cincy. You do not have to use them in cash but if you play in tournaments this is the perfect example of a good probability at lower ownership.
Projected Lineup
# | Player | wOBA vs. LHP | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | John Jaso | 0.422 | 1B | $2,600 | OF | $3,500 |
2 | Andrew McCutchen | 0.397 | OF | $4,700 | OF | $5,100 |
3 | David Freese | 0.316 | 3B | $2,700 | 3B | $3,500 |
4 | Starling Marte | 0.313 | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,700 |
5 | Francisco Cervelli | 0.370 | C | $2,500 | C | $3,400 |
6 | Gregory Polanco | 0.234 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,500 |
7 | Josh Harrison | 0.333 | 2B | $2,400 | 2B/3B | $3,900 |
8 | Jordy Mercer | 0.323 | SS | $2,400 | SS | $3,200 |
9 | Jeff Locke | P | $5,900 | P | $7,000 |
Elite Plays
Secondary Plays
Starling Marte
Gregory Polanco
Cincinnati
The Reds lineup is already weak enough but even more so when facing a left handed pitcher. With that said there are a few tournament guys like Cozart, Suarez, and Mesoraco.
Projected Lineup
# | Player | wOBA vs. LHP | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Zack Cozart | 0.384 | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,400 |
2 | Eugenio Suarez | 0.354 | 3B | $3,300 | SS | $3,800 |
3 | Joey Votto | 0.436 | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $4,700 |
4 | Brandon Phillips | 0.310 | 2B | $2,800 | 2B | $3,700 |
5 | Devin Mesoraco | 0.228 | C | $2,300 | C | $3,300 |
6 | Jay Bruce | 0.288 | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,000 |
7 | Adam Duvall | 0.233 | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,400 |
8 | Tim Melville | P | $5,000 | P | $5,100 | |
9 | Billy Hamilton | 0.277 | OF | $2,600 | OF | $4,300 |
Elite Plays
Secondary Plays
Miami at Washington – 1:35 PM ET
Miami | Washington | ||||||||
![]() | Tom Koehler | ![]() | Joe Ross | ||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
WAS -145 | 8.0 | ||||||||
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left | 0.332 | 16 | 18.1% | 10.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.351 | 4 | 17.5% | 9.7% |
SP vs. Right | 0.313 | 6 | 16.2% | 9.2% | SP vs. Right | 0.205 | 3 | 26.3% | 3.8% |
Batter Splits | Batter Splits | ||||||||
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
Tom Koehler | |||||||
![]() | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Salary:$7,200 | Salary:$7,100 | ||||||
FPPG:26.6 | FPPG:0.0 | ||||||
Pitcher Rating: | |||||||
Statistics | SIERA | K% | BB% | LD% | GB% | O-wOBA | O-K% |
2015 | 4.67 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 18.4% | 46.0% | 18 | 28 |
Koehler may throw a lot of innings for the Marlins but that does not mean we can use him in DFS. His numbers are average at best and with a Nationals team that is bursting at the seams for a big game I am more inclined to side with them. He is a low strikeout guy whose xFIP and SIERA tell the tale of a back end starter who will give up the occasional homer.
Joe Ross | |||||||
![]() | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Salary:$6,800 | Salary:$7,800 | ||||||
FPPG:23.8 | FPPG:0.0 | ||||||
Pitcher Rating: | |||||||
Statistics | SIERA | K% | BB% | LD% | GB% | O-wOBA | O-K% |
2015 | 3.66 | 22.0% | 6.7% | 16.4% | 49.8% | 29 | 6 |
If you read my FanDuel pitching primer then you know how much I like Ross coming into the season. Not only does he have a really solid offense to put him in position to rack up wins but he is pretty good pitcher himself. This season it will be interesting to see if Ross will attack with the slider a bit more as he was able to produce a 25.8% swinging strike rate on it in 2015 as opposed to average rates on his other pitches. All things considered Ross is one of my favorite pitchers on the day.
Batter Grind Down
Miami
You can never count out guys like Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton but overall this is not a team I want heavy exposure to today. Ross should be able to control most of the lineup and as long as he is careful to the star hitters the runs should be limited.
Projected Lineup
# | Player | wOBA vs. RHP | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dee Gordon | 0.329 | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $4,300 |
2 | Marcell Ozuna | 0.283 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,300 |
3 | Christian Yelich | 0.354 | OF | $3,500 | OF | $3,700 |
4 | Giancarlo Stanton | 0.375 | OF | $4,800 | OF | $4,700 |
5 | Martin Prado | 0.305 | 3B | $2,700 | 3B | $3,200 |
6 | Justin Bour | 0.359 | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $2,800 |
7 | Jacob Realmuto | 0.289 | C | $2,400 | C | $2,800 |
8 | Adeiny Hechavarria | 0.274 | SS | $2,600 | SS | $2,600 |
9 | Tom Koehler | P | $7,200 | P | $7,100 |
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Washington
This is a team that I feel is ready to break out in a big way on offense this season. Anytime they are facing an average pitcher that does not miss a ton of bats I am going to have some exposure.
Projected Lineup
# | Player | wOBA vs. RHP | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Michael Taylor | 0.271 | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,600 |
2 | Anthony Rendon | 0.310 | 3B | $2,900 | 2B/3B | $4,400 |
3 | Bryce Harper | 0.478 | OF | $5,200 | OF | $5,300 |
4 | Ryan Zimmerman | 0.290 | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $4,000 |
5 | Daniel Murphy | 0.342 | 2B | $3,300 | 2B/3B | $4,300 |
6 | Jayson Werth | 0.293 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $4,300 |
7 | Wilson Ramos | 0.264 | C | $2,300 | C | $3,500 |
8 | Danny Espinosa | 0.302 | SS | $2,300 | 2B | $3,100 |
9 | Joe Ross | P | $6,800 | P | $7,800 |
Elite Plays
Secondary Plays
St. Louis at Atlanta – 1:35 PM ET
St. Louis | Atlanta | ||||||||
![]() | Adam Wainwright | ![]() | Williams Perez | ||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
STL -180 | 7.0 | ||||||||
Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | K% | BB% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left | 0.288 | 0 | 15.2% | 4.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.374 | 9 | 12.8% | 9.4% |
SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0 | 20.0% | 3.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.330 | 4 | 15.7% | 10.5% |
Batter Splits | Batter Splits | ||||||||
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window |
Pitcher Grind Down
Adam Wainwright | |||||||
![]() | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Salary:$9,500 | Salary:$10,000 | ||||||
FPPG:18.0 | FPPG:7.5 | ||||||
Pitcher Rating: | |||||||
Statistics | SIERA | K% | BB% | LD% | GB% | O-wOBA | O-K% |
2015 | 3.45 | 18.0% | 3.6% | 26.2% | 51.2% | 27 | 2 |
Home town boy Adam Wainwright will be back in Georgia today to face the Atlanta Braves. He did not look that sharp at times against the Pirates in his first start of the season but weather could have been a factor. With a gametime temperature around 60 today that should not be an issue here. Even with all of the severe injuries he continues to defy the odds posting some excellent numbers. Until we see a sustained sign of regression I am rolling with the Cardinals opening day starter as a good fantasy option.
Williams Perez | |||||||
![]() | FanDuel: | DraftKings: | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Salary:$4,800 | Salary:$6,300 | ||||||
FPPG:20.3 | FPPG:0.0 | ||||||
Pitcher Rating: | |||||||
Statistics | SIERA | K% | BB% | LD% | GB% | O-wOBA | O-K% |
2015 | 4.87 | 14.2% | 9.9% | 20.3% | 50.9% | 12 | 11 |
Perez is a tough one to figure out for me. I do not think he is nearly as bad as he pitched last year for the Braves but he also is not a top of the rotation guy. What I think we see from Perez this season is flashes and a slightly increased K% from last year. With that said the Cardinals bats seem to have woken up after the three pinch hit home runs the other night and I have no problem with taking them here.
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
As a Cardinals fan I am holding out hope that the bats will stay hot but the reality is that this team is going to be volatile all season long and probably need another big bat added.
Projected Lineup
# | Player | wOBA vs. RHP | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Matt Carpenter | 0.394 | 3B | $3,200 | 3B | $4,400 |
2 | Stephen Piscotty | 0.360 | OF | $2,900 | 1B/OF | $3,800 |
3 | Matt Holliday | 0.353 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,600 |
4 | Matt Adams | 0.293 | 1B | $2,300 | 1B | $3,300 |
5 | Randal Grichuk | 0.381 | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,400 |
6 | Yadier Molina | 0.298 | C | $2,500 | C | $3,400 |
7 | Kolten Wong | 0.335 | 2B | $2,500 | 2B | $3,800 |
8 | Jedd Gyorko | 0.284 | SS | $2,200 | 2B/SS | $3,200 |
9 | Adam Wainwright | P | $9,500 | P | $10,000 |
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Atlanta
Does anyone else feel sorry for Freddie Freeman? I mean they did try to add a couple bats but this poor guy is an elite hitter in the middle of a horrible overall lineup.
Projected Lineup
# | Player | wOBA vs. RHP | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Ender Inciarte | 0.359 | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,700 |
2 | Erick Aybar | 0.288 | SS | $2,400 | SS | $3,300 |
3 | Freddie Freeman | 0.390 | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $4,100 |
4 | Adonis Garcia | 0.302 | 3B | $2,300 | 3B | $2,700 |
5 | Nick Markakis | 0.347 | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,600 |
6 | Hector Olivera | 0.355 | OF | $2,200 | 3B | $3,100 |
7 | A.J. Pierzynski | 0.343 | C | $2,200 | C | $3,100 |
8 | Jace Peterson | 0.301 | 2B | $2,300 | 2B | $2,900 |
9 | Williams Perez | P | $4,800 | P | $6,300 |
Elite Plays
None