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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, May 6th - Page Two

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-05-06 15:20:39

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Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Minnesota at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET

Minnesota Chicago White Sox
minnesotamlb Kyle Gibson whitesoxmlb James Shields
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-132 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.346 0.332 34.7% 8.5% 17.2% 46.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.374 0.380 31.9% 13.4% 16.1% 41.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.374 38.0% 9.8% 20.5% 54.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.312 0.354 35.2% 7.6% 20.1% 35.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Gibson
kyle-gibson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 4.67 5.07 17.5% 8.7% 50.8% 35.8% 15.4%
2018 6 4.04 3.38 26.3% 11.7% 49.4% 39.8% 14.5%

Kyle Gibson has a reputation as a gas can, and that has been true in the past. These days, though, he looks more like an average pitcher that just skates his way along. He’s pitched slightly worse than his 3.38 ERA would suggest (4.04 SIERA), but he’s a pitcher that keeps the ball on the ground well, which can make it frustrating to stack hitters against him. Still, Gibson has a hard contact rate nearing 40% against him, and his 26.3% so far this season is way higher than it’s been any other time in his career. He has an unsightly walk rate just under 12%, but he does get the benefit of facing a weak White Sox offense today. Chicago will be without Yoan Moncada, which takes one of their best left-handed hitters out of the mix.

Quick Breakdown: There’s merit to taking a flier on Gibson in a great matchup in GPPs, but he’s too risky for cash game consideration.

James Shields
james-shields-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 21 4.94 5.23 20.0% 10.3% 38.2% 33.3% 19.3%
2018 6 5.78 5.35 12.2% 10.9% 39.7% 34.5% 17.7%

On a slate with plenty of talented pitchers, we’ve finally reached our first true gas can in James Shields. Shields is a guy that has shown strikeout upside in the past, but he’s evidently completely lost the ability to miss bats this season. Shields has an insanely low 12.2% K-rate this season, which is only slightly higher than his ugly 10.9% walk rate. In a matchup against a powerful Twins lineup, I probably don’t need to keep adding reasons to fade Shields.

Quick Breakdown: If you want to play James Shields today, feel free to scoop some of my head-to-heads.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins are one of the best offenses to target today because they’re facing James Shields in a good park for hitting. Shields has been getting absolutely shredded by lefties for years, but it’s not like he’s all that much better against righties. As a result, there isn’t a Twin I would steer you away from today. Brian Dozier has plenty of upside from the right side of the plate, while Eddie Rosario, Logan Morrison, Max Kepler and Eduardo Escobar are your preferred targets from the left side. Robbie Grossman, Jason Castro and Joe Mauer are secondary left-handed bats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.402 0.400 0.125 40.0% 13.2% 12.8% 48.9% 1B $3,200 1B $3,500 1B $6,500
2 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.327 0.301 0.195 32.3% 10.1% 20.1% 37.5% 2B $3,700 2B $4,600 2B $9,200
3 Max Kepler LEFT 0.332 0.328 0.214 37.2% 9.3% 16.1% 41.6% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
4 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.350 0.317 0.267 34.4% 6.9% 17.6% 38.3% OF $3,800 OF $4,000 LF $7,200
5 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.342 0.398 0.228 34.8% 6.7% 20.6% 30.8% SS $4,000 3B/SS $4,000 SS $7,200
6 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.380 0.420 0.276 40.1% 12.8% 24.3% 34.0% 1B $3,000 1B $3,400 1B $6,400
7 Ehire Adrianza SWITCH 0.285 0.302 0.075 24.8% 9.7% 18.8% 43.0% 3B $2,300 SS $2,600 SS $4,900
8 Mitch Garver RIGHT 0.281 0.293 0.224 41.9% 9.3% 33.3% 45.2% C $2,100 C $3,100 C $5,600
9 Ryan LaMarre RIGHT 0.350 0.299 0.000 40.0% 15.8% 26.3% 70.0% OF $2,200 OF $2,700 CF $5,800

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Eduardo Escobar, Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Jason Castro, Robbie Grossman

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are an underwhelming offense with Yoan Moncada, so they’re obviously an even worse group without him. Kyle Gibson isn’t some great pitcher, but I’m also not going out of my way to stack a bunch of mediocre hitters against him here today. Gibson has been historically vulnerable to lefties, but Jose Abreu makes for a decent play in just about any matchup from the right side. My preferred route here would be to pick out a lefty or two to play as one-offs rather than fully stacking the ChiSox.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.299 0.223 0.164 28.9% 4.3% 23.0% 53.2% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 CF $6,700
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.303 0.318 0.154 27.3% 6.2% 19.0% 46.3% 3B $3,200 3B $3,300 2B $6,700
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.373 0.408 0.236 40.0% 5.2% 16.3% 44.9% 1B $3,900 1B $4,100 1B $8,100
4 Nick Delmonico LEFT 0.319 0.337 0.162 28.4% 10.8% 18.6% 39.9% OF $2,400 OF $3,100 IF/OF $5,500
5 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.322 0.448 0.249 41.8% 5.5% 38.3% 39.5% 3B $3,300 3B $3,900 3B $7,500
6 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.332 0.314 0.455 25.0% 0.0% 9.1% 35.0% OF $2,800 1B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,500
7 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.261 0.273 0.130 26.4% 3.4% 26.9% 53.2% SS $2,900 SS $3,600 SS $7,400
8 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.316 0.293 0.065 19.7% 12.4% 15.6% 43.3% C $2,200 C $2,200 C $4,100
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.221 0.279 0.088 24.8% 6.1% 36.9% 42.6% OF $2,100 OF $2,700 CF $5,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nicky Delmonico, Jose Abreu, Daniel Palka

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Pittsburgh Milwaukee
pittsburghmlb Chad Kuhl milwaukeemlb Chase Anderson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIL-123 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.392 0.372 40.1% 11.6% 22.1% 34.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.266 0.277 30.5% 7.1% 23.6% 35.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.301 0.330 32.5% 8.5% 19.3% 46.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.304 32.8% 7.9% 20.5% 42.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chad Kuhl
chad-kuhl-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 4.79 4.35 20.9% 10.6% 41.9% 36.1% 17.2%
2018 6 4.33 5.01 19.7% 7.0% 36.4% 35.3% 17.7%

Chad Kuhl 4.33 SIERA tells us his 5.03 ERA is a bit unlucky, but he hasn’t pitched well this season. He has allowed plenty of hard contact this season and he has never been a guy to generate many swings and misses. He has a well-earned reputation as a guy that typically gets blasted by left-handed hitters. Kuhl has allowed a career wOBA of .385 to lefties compared to a .300 mark against righties. In a homer-friendly park today against a lineup with some pop, I see no reason to consider Kuhl in any format. The upside isn’t there.

Quick Breakdown: Kuhl is an easy fade in all formats.

Chase Anderson
chase-anderson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,900
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.14 2.74 23.4% 7.2% 39.2% 31.7% 19.9%
2018 7 4.94 3.38 16.8% 8.7% 39.3% 31.9% 22.4%

Chase Anderson is another guy whose decent surface stats belie his struggles. His SIERA is about 1.5 runs north of his ERA so far, and he’s somehow managed to strand about 90% of runners on base this season. Considering the league average LOB% is in the low-70s, it’s safe to say Anderson has some regression coming his way. Anderson has been a decent strikeout pitcher in the past, which should mean his low 16.8% strikeout rate thus far is due for some positive regression. Still, he’s pitching against a Pirates offense that doesn’t strike out a whole lot. Anderson is a reverse-splits righty, to boot. While he’s super cheap, I have no interest today.

Quick Breakdown: Anderson’s price tag has been slashed considerably, and with good reason. He may not get smashed, but there’s more downside than upside.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates generally aren’t a DFS darling because they play their home games in a pitcher-friendly park and they don’t have a whole lot of talent to begin with. They’ve been decent with the bats to start the season, though, and today they get a substantial park upgrade going into Miller Park. Starling Marte is the preferred target among hitters considering he’s a solid overall hitter and Anderson has reverse splits. I won’t talk you out of the lefties, though, so guys like Gregory Polanco, Corey Dickerson and Josh Bell make for decent secondary options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.324 0.241 0.128 28.8% 7.9% 12.8% 49.5% OF $2,400 2B $2,900 IF/OF $5,600
2 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.336 0.316 0.178 29.9% 8.5% 13.9% 39.2% OF $3,500 OF $3,700 RF $7,700
3 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.324 0.273 0.128 25.2% 7.3% 18.3% 47.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 CF $8,500
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.327 0.290 0.188 32.4% 10.6% 19.8% 52.3% 1B $2,600 1B $3,300 1B $6,600
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.339 0.374 0.221 33.8% 6.1% 20.8% 36.8% OF $3,900 OF $4,200 LF $8,100
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.352 0.442 0.158 34.6% 10.2% 19.9% 45.1% C $2,800 C $3,500 C $6,700
7 Colin Moran LEFT 0.379 0.338 0.157 35.6% 10.7% 16.5% 41.1% 3B $2,900 3B $3,400 3B $6,900
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.297 0.222 0.144 27.0% 8.7% 16.7% 45.3% SS $2,200 SS $2,700 SS $5,800
9 Chad Kuhl RIGHT 0.138 0.087 0.050 24.1% 2.3% 31.8% 66.7% P $6,600 P $6,400 P $12,800

Elite Plays – Starling Marte

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Colin Moran, Adam Frazier

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee

Chad Kuhl isn’t a horrendous pitcher, but he’s not in a favorable spot today going against Milwaukee. Eric Thames would be a great play if he weren’t on the DL, but we’ll have to settle for some of the other solid left-handed bats like Travis Shaw and Christian Yelich instead. Jonathan Villar makes for a decent play if he gets a good lineup spot, while Ryan Braun (if he’s back in the lineup) and Lorenzo Cain are also playable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.333 0.367 0.121 29.7% 9.4% 16.5% 47.7% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
2 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.370 0.383 0.171 39.7% 13.1% 19.7% 54.3% OF $4,000 OF $4,400 CF $8,200
3 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.361 0.442 0.237 39.3% 6.3% 29.0% 37.3% 1B $3,100 1B $3,500 1B $6,300
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.371 0.432 0.259 39.5% 11.1% 20.8% 41.2% 3B $3,800 3B $4,200 3B $8,200
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.346 0.349 0.200 37.4% 11.0% 30.1% 46.9% OF $2,900 OF $3,200 RF $6,600
6 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.300 0.275 0.158 30.5% 6.6% 20.3% 37.4% C $2,300 C $2,600 C $4,900
7 Eric Sogard LEFT 0.333 0.225 0.091 27.3% 14.3% 12.7% 39.3% 2B $2,100 2B/SS $2,400 2B $4,900
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.287 0.298 0.148 31.3% 5.5% 18.5% 52.0% SS $2,200 SS $2,800 SS $5,700
9 Chase Anderson RIGHT 0.084 0.086 0.020 7.7% 0.0% 50.9% 68.4% P $7,600 P $5,900 P $11,900

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich, Travis Shaw, Jonathan Villar

Secondary Plays – Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit at Kansas City – 2:15 PM ET

Detroit Kansas City
detroitmlb Matt Boyd kansascitymlb Jakob Junis
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
KC -145 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.279 0.290 24.4% 8.5% 17.8% 45.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.339 33.5% 5.7% 17.1% 46.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.349 0.334 35.0% 8.4% 18.2% 35.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.310 0.364 36.5% 5.8% 21.1% 34.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Boyd
matt-boyd-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,100
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.94 5.27 18.2% 8.8% 38.1% 34.6% 21.0%
2018 5 4.83 2.48 17.8% 6.8% 31.4% 26.4% 26.4%

Matt Boyd has a 2.48 ERA thus far, which looks like a complete mirage. His 4.83 SIERA can attest to that, and he’s also benefited from a low BABIP against him (.238) and a high LOB% (86.8%). Boyd is a low-strikeout left-hander that allows plenty of fly balls, which bodes well for the home run upside against him. A matchup with the Royals in Kansas City isn’t the most daunting task in the world, but Boyd shouldn’t be on your DFS radar here.

Quick Breakdown: No, thank you.

Jakob Junis
jakob-junis-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $7,300 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 16 4.49 4.30 19.0% 5.9% 40.1% 36.7% 16.9%
2018 6 4.17 3.29 19.6% 5.2% 42.0% 30.4% 19.6%

Jakob Junis looks like another pitcher that has enjoyed some good luck early on this season. He doesn’t walk many batters, and he has an average strikeout rate nearing 20%. He’s another guy that has stranded the vast majority of baserunners against him (94.7%) along with a freakishly low BABIP of .184. Junis allowed 15 homers last year in just under 100 innings of work, and he’s already surrendered nine dingers this season in only 38.1 innings. Junis does get to face an underwhelming Tigers lineup featuring plenty of right-handers, and I doubt he gets blown up here. Still, I’d rather take a guy like Kyle Freeland for a few hundred less if I’m shopping in this price range.

Quick Breakdown: Junis makes for a decent play today if you must spend down at SP2 considering he’s facing the Tigers at home. Still, though, paying up at pitcher is the ideal route.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

While my interest in Junis is tepid at best, it’s not like I’m jumping all over myself to roster a bunch of Tigers today. Other than perhaps Nick Castellanos or Leonys Martin as one-offs in tournaments, the Tigers look like a team I’ll be steering clear of on this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.328 0.461 0.148 30.3% 6.9% 23.0% 35.6% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.339 0.349 0.196 30.7% 9.6% 20.2% 44.7% 3B $3,700 3B $3,900 3B $7,300
3 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.371 0.376 0.182 43.1% 6.1% 22.8% 35.8% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.377 0.342 0.135 43.5% 8.9% 13.7% 38.0% C $2,400 1B $2,900 1B $5,600
5 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.299 0.394 0.128 35.9% 5.1% 34.8% 44.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
6 John Hicks RIGHT 0.314 0.403 0.168 34.9% 5.8% 24.4% 46.7% C $2,500 1B/C $3,200 C $6,800
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.302 0.317 0.113 36.4% 5.4% 24.4% 40.3% C $2,400 C $3,100 C $5,900
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.259 0.274 0.115 27.5% 3.7% 15.1% 51.2% SS $2,200 SS $2,700 SS $5,800
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.303 0.308 0.094 35.2% 5.9% 17.8% 52.4% 2B $2,400 2B $2,700 SS $5,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos, Leonys Martin

Stackability – ORANGE

Kansas City

The Royals are another team that isn’t particularly fun to stack, but they do see a favorable matchup today against a fly ball lefty in Matt Boyd. Boyd hasn’t been great against left-handed hitters in his career, but I’d still lean towards playing righties against him. Salvador Perez makes for one of the top overall catching options on the board (not saying much, I know), while Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler and even Cheslor Cuthbert are all in play, too. Cuthbert in particular makes for a strong value if you’re paying up for your pitchers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.361 0.306 0.223 36.7% 6.7% 15.6% 37.2% 2B $3,700 2B $3,900 IF/OF $7,700
2 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.403 0.411 0.314 45.8% 13.3% 27.7% 37.5% OF $3,700 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
3 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.307 0.387 0.180 31.4% 2.9% 15.8% 41.7% 3B $3,600 3B $4,300 3B $8,500
4 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.368 0.378 0.227 41.5% 4.3% 22.2% 33.1% C $3,400 C $3,700 C $7,500
5 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.272 0.293 0.134 29.3% 6.7% 27.0% 46.6% 3B $2,500 1B/3B $2,900 3B $5,800
6 Jon Jay LEFT 0.334 0.270 0.017 19.2% 12.8% 19.1% 55.6% OF $2,500 OF $2,800 CF $5,800
7 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.297 0.358 0.184 33.0% 6.0% 32.9% 38.6% 1B $2,400 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
8 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.339 0.402 0.045 22.6% 9.9% 17.3% 49.5% OF $2,600 OF $3,200 LF $6,500
9 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.294 0.359 0.155 31.7% 4.5% 15.3% 41.9% SS $2,900 SS $3,000 SS $5,900

Elite Plays – Salvador Perez, Jorge Soler, Cheslor Cuthbert, Whit Merrifield

Secondary Plays – Mike Moustakas

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

Boston at Texas – 3:05 PM ET

Boston Texas
bostonmlb Chris Sale texasmlb Doug Fister
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-200 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.252 0.267 18.0% 4.4% 31.0% 44.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.337 0.348 40.9% 11.7% 18.7% 51.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.263 0.255 31.1% 5.4% 36.1% 37.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.297 0.315 25.0% 7.3% 22.2% 49.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Sale
chris-sale-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,200 Salary: $12,600 Salary: $25,000
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 2.58 2.90 36.2% 5.1% 38.7% 29.7% 18.5%
2018 7 3.02 2.14 30.5% 6.0% 39.2% 25.2% 30.1%

Chris Sale, Scherzer and Syndergaard are pretty clearly the top three pitching options on the main slate (on DK, at least). While Sale has been solid this season, we haven’t seen him flash the same upside that we saw in his first season with the Red Sox. His strikeout rate of 30.5% is still elite, but it’s worth noting that it’s come down by about 5% compared to last year. We don’t really know whether he’s deliberately pitching to more contact or if he’s just gotten off to a slow start from a strikeout perspective (by his standards, at least). Going into Texas isn’t the greatest setting for pitchers, but this is still a top-tier strikeout arm going up against a watered-down Ranger lineup with plenty of built-in strikeouts.

Quick Breakdown: The price is hefty given his performance so far this season, but I’m willing to give a guy with Sale’s track record the benefit of the doubt. He’s an elite play in all formats, though I still prefer Scherzer head-to-head.

Doug Fister
doug-fister-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $4,200 Salary: $8,600
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 15 4.44 4.88 21.2% 9.7% 50.6% 32.5% 19.4%
2018 5 4.43 2.88 17.7% 8.9% 48.8% 35.0% 18.8%

Doug Fister will take the rubber for the Rangers in a #RevengeGame against his former club. Narrative street is fun sometimes, but if you think Fister is going to go out there and mow down the Red Sox here, you started drinking pretty early today. Fister has been much tougher on righties than lefties in the past, and he’s a ground ball pitcher that doesn’t strike many hitters out. The Red Sox are a team I almost never target in DFS, and I’m not going to be starting today.

Quick Breakdown: Fister might finish with the fewest fantasy points among any starter on the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

They’re expensive, but the Red Sox are the top offense to target on the main slate today. Fister is not a good pitcher at this stage of his career. While he’s shown the ability to get righties out, that’s not going to stop me from playing high-quality bats like Mookie Betts or J.D. Martinez against him. Most of Boston’s best hitters are righties, but I think they’re still all in play if you can afford them. From the left side, the preferred targets are Rafael Devers, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Andrew Benintendi.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.367 0.543 0.216 38.5% 9.7% 12.1% 38.3% OF $5,400 OF $5,900 RF $12,000
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.346 0.284 0.177 34.5% 10.3% 15.9% 37.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,700 LF $9,400
3 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.366 0.365 0.178 35.4% 8.2% 19.8% 42.2% 1B $4,100 1B $4,500 1B $8,900
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.420 0.388 0.332 49.0% 9.5% 26.5% 43.1% OF $4,800 OF $5,200 RF $10,200
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.296 0.352 0.152 32.3% 7.9% 18.8% 47.6% SS $4,100 SS $5,000 SS $10,000
6 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.317 0.366 0.185 37.6% 7.1% 23.0% 47.2% 3B $3,900 3B $4,100 3B $8,200
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.267 0.255 0.163 25.1% 3.2% 12.8% 52.0% 2B $3,100 2B/SS $3,900 3B $7,400
8 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.328 0.260 0.164 34.8% 9.1% 22.4% 45.1% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 CF $7,300
9 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.261 0.242 0.106 31.7% 7.1% 26.3% 35.7% C $2,100 C $2,800 C $5,700

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr., Rafael Devers, Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – J.D. Martinez, Hanley Ramirez, Eduardo Nunez

Stackability – GREEN

Texas

The Rangers are taking their hacks in a favorable park, but they get a terrible matchup today against Chris Sale. Sale is far more vulnerable against right-handed hitters, but the Texas lineup isn’t exactly teeming with a bunch of good ones. Joey Gallo is playable as a super low-owned GPP dart in a lefty-lefty matchup, but there’s no real reason to play Rangers today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.265 0.268 0.150 23.9% 11.0% 29.0% 38.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,000 CF $5,600
2 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.334 0.337 0.080 25.0% 10.6% 18.6% 61.1% OF $3,200 OF $3,100 RF $5,700
3 Isiah Kiner-Falefa RIGHT 0.257 0.335 0.063 0.0% 15.8% 21.1% 41.7% 3B $2,600 2B/3B $2,800 3B $5,600
4 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.290 0.430 0.125 27.5% 5.2% 23.3% 58.3% OF $3,300 OF $3,100 RF $5,600
5 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.372 0.446 0.246 44.3% 12.4% 39.8% 21.7% OF $3,100 1B/OF $3,300 1B $6,600
6 Jurickson Profar SWITCH 0.432 0.324 0.391 47.4% 20.7% 13.8% 15.8% SS $2,900 2B/SS $2,900 3B $5,700
7 Renato Nunez RIGHT 0.323 0.320 0.273 31.3% 4.2% 29.2% 25.0% 3B $2,100 3B/OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,700
8 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.348 0.295 0.261 42.4% 11.4% 25.7% 33.3% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,900
9 Ryan Rua RIGHT 0.315 0.199 0.128 45.6% 8.1% 25.6% 50.0% OF $2,100 OF $2,200 IF/OF $3,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joey Gallo (deep GPP flier with HR potential)

Stackability – RED

Baltimore at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET

Baltimore Oakland
baltimoremlb Alex Cobb oaklandmlb Andrew Triggs
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
OAK-157 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.340 37.3% 8.1% 17.7% 43.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.302 0.357 33.1% 8.3% 18.9% 47.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.325 0.334 36.8% 4.2% 14.8% 51.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.336 0.318 27.1% 7.0% 18.9% 51.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Cobb
alex-cobb-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,400
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 4.48 3.66 17.3% 5.9% 47.8% 36.9% 14.9%
2018 4 5.07 9.68 6.4% 5.3% 54.3% 37.8% 15.9%

Alex Cobb is in his first season with the Orioles, and it’s safe to say things haven’t gone well for him. Through four starts, Cobb is 0-3 with a 9.68 ERA and a 2.38 WHIP. Is that bad? Yes, very. Cobb’s 5.07 SIERA is far better than his aforementioned ERA, but it’s not like that’s a good number, either. Cobb was once a strong pitcher, but he’s clearly not the same guy post-Tommy John. He’s shown zero strikeout upside this season. Against an A’s lineup with plenty of thunder, Cobb is an easy pass.

Quick Breakdown: Cobb probably isn’t as bad as his numbers say he is, but there’s no way you’re playing him until he flashes even a little bit of form.

Andrew Triggs
andrew-triggs-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 12 4.54 4.27 17.7% 6.7% 49.8% 26.7% 15.2%
2018 6 4.32 5.20 21.6% 9.6% 49.4% 37.4% 20.5%

Triggs’ 4.32 SIERA says that his 5.02 ERA is due for some positive regression. The right-hander has been getting hit hard this season, but he’s a decent ground ball pitcher with some strikeout ability. Triggs’ sidearm-style delivery makes it tough on righties to pick up the ball, while he’s more susceptible to left-handers. Fortunately for him, he’ll be going up against a relatively weak Orioles offense full of right-handed hitters. The O’s have a 25.8% K-rate as a team against righties this season, which is the fourth-highest mark in the big leagues. Triggs looks like a decent option, all things considered.

Quick Breakdown: Triggs is a strong pitching option on a short afternoon slate given his price and matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are typically a boom-or-bust type of offense. Manny Machado is a legitimate superstar capable of going off in any matchup, so he’s in play any time he takes the field. Otherwise, though, I don’t have much interest in this offense going into Oakland against a serviceable pitcher in Triggs. Other than a sprinkling of Machado in GPPs, this looks like a fade spot.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.358 0.347 0.200 35.1% 6.9% 22.9% 49.9% OF $3,000 1B/OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,900
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.325 0.357 0.190 31.4% 3.0% 18.5% 43.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 CF $6,700
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.371 0.477 0.214 36.3% 8.3% 16.5% 41.8% SS $4,600 SS $5,000 3B $9,900
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.340 0.300 0.213 40.8% 12.5% 34.2% 40.0% 1B $2,800 1B $2,900 IF/OF $5,900
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.300 0.297 0.154 30.7% 7.2% 25.6% 43.1% OF $2,500 1B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,300
6 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.357 0.341 0.194 34.9% 11.4% 25.7% 40.9% 3B $2,300 1B/3B $3,300 1B $6,800
7 Anthony Santander SWITCH 0.304 0.331 0.108 39.1% 2.3% 17.4% 33.3% OF $2,000 OF $2,600 LF $4,700
8 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.304 0.299 0.102 28.4% 13.1% 21.4% 57.8% 2B $2,700 2B/OF $2,800 2B $5,600
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.246 0.231 0.125 24.5% 3.0% 28.8% 46.5% C $2,100 C $2,400 C $4,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado

Stackability – RED

Oakland

Cobb has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season, so the A’s are one of the best offenses on the board here. He’s also shown that he can’t miss bats at all, so you can use some of the high-K Oakland bats, too. Oakland’s park isn’t ideal, but this is lineup is talented and powerful enough to overcome that.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.371 0.215 0.242 31.9% 13.5% 20.8% 34.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,100 RF $5,500
2 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.316 0.373 0.141 26.9% 9.0% 22.6% 37.9% SS $3,500 SS $3,800 SS $7,200
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.380 0.406 0.203 36.8% 11.0% 15.0% 28.4% 2B $4,300 2B $4,400 2B $8,300
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.392 0.285 0.285 41.8% 9.7% 29.5% 37.3% OF $3,700 OF $4,700 LF $9,400
5 Matt Olson LEFT 0.408 0.473 0.348 44.0% 11.6% 31.4% 33.6% 1B $2,900 1B $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
6 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.341 0.267 0.248 38.0% 9.9% 24.5% 35.7% 3B $3,200 3B $3,900 3B $7,300
7 Mark Canha RIGHT 0.320 0.332 0.203 34.8% 6.1% 30.6% 36.0% OF $3,300 1B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,500
8 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.341 0.342 0.146 31.3% 11.4% 21.5% 49.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 RF $6,500
9 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.330 0.352 0.111 25.8% 9.0% 11.2% 50.3% C $2,400 C $3,100 C $6,000

Elite Plays – Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie

Secondary Plays – Mark Canha, Marcus Semien, Stephen Piscotty

Stackability – GREEN

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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles