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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, May 6th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-05-06 15:22:25

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Cleveland at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Cleveland NY Yankees
clevelandmlb Mike Clevinger nyyankeesmlb Domingo German
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-140 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.332 0.353 32.0% 10.9% 24.1% 37.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.313 0.261 25.6% 11.9% 22.0% 43.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.264 0.292 31.7% 10.5% 26.2% 44.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.300 0.289 38.2% 13.6% 34.9% 37.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Clevinger
michael-clevinger-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,100
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 21 4.24 3.11 27.3% 12.0% 39.5% 34.2% 18.6%
2018 6 4.28 2.82 19.0% 6.5% 45.9% 25.4% 17.5%

Mike Clevinger’s surface stats (2.82 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) look decent enough, but he hasn’t been quite the same guy so far this season that we’ve seen in the past. Most importantly, his strikeout rate is down about 8% compared to where we saw it last season. Most of that is likely small sample size noise, but Clevinger is taking the mound today in a homer-friendly park against a potent offense. On a slate loaded with pitching options, I see no reason to list the right-hander as anything but a GPP dart.

Quick Breakdown: Clevinger isn’t a pitcher with a history of getting blown up, but he’s also not a guy I’ll be going out of my way to target on a slate rife with plenty of high-end pitching. I’d rather target a Yankee hitter or two than take a shot on Clevinger.

Domingo German
{height:130px;} FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 3.93 3.14 29.0% 14.5% 54.5% 28.6% 25.7%
2018 0 3.48 3.77 28.6% 11.1% 28.9% 34.2% 15.8%

Domingo German has been serving as the long reliever out of the Yankee bullpen this season, but he’s getting the chance to start today in place of the injured Jordan Montgomery. We last saw German coming in for Montgomery after the latter was injured in New York’s 4-0 win over the Astros on May 1, where he pitched well. He tossed 4 innings of shutout ball with 4 strikeouts and 4 hits allowed. The right-hander has a strikeout rate north of 28% since coming to the big leagues for the first time last season, but walks have been a problem. German has a career walk rate of 12.8%, including an 11.1% mark so far this year. Considering this is his first career major league start, and the fact that it’s coming in an unfavorable ballpark against a strong Indians offense, there isn’t much reason to target German on this slate. There’s potential strikeout upside, but we have no idea how long he’s going to go. German’s season-high in pitches is 61, set in his last relief outing.

Quick Breakdown: German is a name to watch in the future, but given the potential red flags involved today, I have little interest from a DFS standpoint.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

While I’m not interested in playing German, I’m also not crazy about targeting a bunch of Cleveland bats on this slate. German looks like a decent enough pitcher, and this is setting up to be a bullpen game for the Yankees. If you must play Indians, it looks as though lefties are the way to go against German. The sample size is small, but German boasts a considerably worse K-rate and xFIP against left-handed hitters. Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley are all in play, but I’d rather use them as GPP one-offs rather than a full stack. The Yankees’ bullpen is one of the best in the league.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.362 0.404 0.237 33.0% 8.3% 14.2% 38.5% SS $4,700 SS $5,100 SS $9,500
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.316 0.361 0.159 33.6% 7.4% 19.9% 33.5% 2B $3,200 2B $3,700 2B $7,500
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.368 0.471 0.278 31.2% 10.2% 10.4% 37.5% 3B $4,500 3B $4,800 IF/OF $8,900
4 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.383 0.436 0.206 39.3% 9.0% 11.9% 46.3% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 LF $9,300
5 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.393 0.410 0.259 37.2% 12.4% 20.6% 34.1% 1B $4,000 1B $4,700 1B $9,000
6 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.387 0.375 0.235 36.4% 13.1% 21.9% 35.5% 1B $2,700 1B $4,000 1B $7,200
7 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.281 0.438 0.141 26.1% 7.3% 27.2% 40.1% C $2,800 C $3,300 C $6,400
8 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.305 0.350 0.081 39.7% 5.4% 25.8% 58.7% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 CF $5,500
9 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.302 0.309 0.139 37.6% 8.5% 34.2% 44.2% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 CF $6,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

This game has a Vegas total of 9 1/2 runs, but I’m really not all that interested in stacking up hitters on either side. Clevinger’s numbers aren’t great this season, though, and I will almost never talk anybody out of rostering guys like Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and/or Giancarlo Stanton. As is the case with the Indians, however, I don’t see myself playing many Yankee bats. They’re generally expensive, and Clevinger isn’t one to give up a ton of longballs. You can always play someone like Judge as a one-off, but I think I’m going to find my bats elsewhere and hope this game stays relatively tame. Targeting lefties is probably the way to go if you want exposure here, which puts guys like Brett Gardner, Neil Walker and Aaron Hicks into consideration.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.331 0.278 0.171 31.3% 11.5% 18.9% 44.4% OF $3,000 OF $3,400 LF $6,700
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.441 0.373 0.342 44.0% 16.3% 30.0% 35.8% OF $4,900 OF $5,400 RF $10,900
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.322 0.371 0.263 29.1% 6.4% 11.9% 34.2% SS $4,400 SS $4,800 SS $9,100
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.366 0.361 0.293 37.7% 10.4% 27.9% 46.2% OF $4,800 OF $5,000 RF $10,000
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.388 0.436 0.249 36.9% 7.1% 22.8% 42.3% C $4,200 C $4,700 C $8,900
6 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.346 0.324 0.215 31.7% 17.0% 20.1% 41.3% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 CF $7,400
7 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.361 0.330 0.167 35.2% 11.8% 17.7% 39.6% 1B $2,700 1B/2B $2,900 2B $5,800
8 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.387 0.353 0.297 43.1% 1.3% 22.4% 46.6% 3B $3,400 3B $3,500 3B $6,500
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.330 0.338 0.103 29.2% 6.3% 18.8% 33.3% 2B $3,500 2B $3,500 SS $6,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Neil Walker, Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks

Stackability – ORANGE

Colorado at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Colorado NY Mets
coloradomlb Kyle Freeland nymetsmlb Noah Syndergaard
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-185 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.309 0.280 31.9% 6.4% 29.8% 35.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.254 0.270 31.5% 3.5% 31.3% 43.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.344 0.327 31.0% 9.8% 12.6% 57.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.283 0.259 23.6% 2.7% 25.5% 59.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Freeland
kyle-freeland-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.93 4.10 15.6% 9.2% 53.9% 32.0% 24.3%
2018 6 4.25 4.24 21.1% 8.5% 47.9% 27.0% 23.0%

Kyle Freeland is a lefty with a wide platoon split that has shown increased strikeout potential in his second big league campaign. His K-rate is up to 21.1% so far this season, compared to a 15.6% mark during his rookie campaign in 2017. He’s endured a couple of rough outings this season, but he’s generally a guy that is able to limit the damage against him thanks to an above-average ground ball rate. With so many high-end pitching options on the board, it’s tough to make a case for Freeland today other than as a low-owned GPP SP2. He’s going into a pitcher-friendly park in Citi Field and he’ll hold the platoon advantage against some of the Mets’ better hitters (Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto).

Quick Breakdown: I think you can play Freeland as a cheap SP2 in tournaments, though there are plenty of other viable options for cash games.

Noah Syndergaard
noah-syndergaard-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,100 Salary: $11,600 Salary: $22,000
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 7 2.74 2.97 27.4% 2.4% 57.6% 30.2% 16.3%
2018 7 2.76 3.10 29.0% 3.6% 47.3% 25.0% 22.3%

The main slate today comes with three high-end aces on the mound, and Noah Syndergaard is one of them. We were deprived of Thor for much of last season, but he’s returned this year with a vengeance. This guy strikes everybody out and walks almost nobody. He has a strikeout rate of 29% along with a walk rate of just 3.6%. Despite struggling in his last start against the Braves, Syndergaard is a truly elite play today against a weaker Rockies offense. Colorado has a team wOBA of just .292 this season away from Coors Field, and they’ve struck out 23.3% of the time against right-handed pitching. There are a couple of scary bats here, but in general I trust Syndergaard to keep them at bay. He’s not my overall top option on the slate from a raw points perspective, but there’s a lot in Thor’s favor today.

Quick Breakdown: Syndergaard is an elite play in all formats, and he’s looking like my preferred SP2 in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Considering I have a ton of interest in Noah Syndergaard, I’m not going to turn around and tell you to play a bunch of Rockies hitters on the other side. You can take a GPP dart on an elite bat like Charlie Blackmon, but you’re not getting him at any sort of discount. I plan to have zero exposure to this lineup today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.385 0.434 0.298 40.0% 10.6% 20.2% 35.4% OF $4,700 OF $4,800 CF $9,400
2 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.319 0.311 0.149 36.2% 5.5% 14.7% 46.3% OF $2,300 OF $2,700 LF $5,900
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.350 0.464 0.237 36.5% 9.3% 17.9% 36.1% 3B $4,700 3B $4,600 3B $9,900
4 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.331 0.209 0.193 30.6% 11.9% 19.6% 44.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 RF $6,700
5 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.289 0.379 0.175 37.6% 7.9% 33.7% 34.3% SS $3,700 SS $3,800 SS $7,300
6 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.248 0.263 0.093 27.5% 5.6% 24.6% 64.8% 1B $2,800 1B/OF $3,000 LF $5,400
7 Daniel Castro RIGHT 0.153 0.140 0.000 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 83.3% 2B $2,100 2B/SS $2,400 SS $5,000
8 Tony Wolters LEFT 0.270 0.284 0.043 19.6% 13.3% 19.1% 55.0% C $2,200 C $2,500 C $5,100
9 Kyle Freeland LEFT 0.146 0.000 0.100 22.7% 2.3% 46.5% 68.4% P $6,900 P $6,700 P $12,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Gerardo Parra

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Freeland is a guy that generally keeps the ball on the ground, which makes it tough to comfortably stack against him. Still, Freeland is somewhat vulnerable against right-handed hitters, which always puts a guy like Yoenis Cespedes into play. I also don’t hate some of the cheaper righties like Wilmer Flores or Todd Frazier. You can play some Mets bats today, but a stack in a game with a low total like this looks ill-advised.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.345 0.393 0.130 37.0% 7.6% 12.9% 48.5% 2B $4,000 2B $3,800 SS $7,500
2 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.319 0.373 0.214 36.6% 2.9% 15.7% 38.4% 1B $2,300 1B $3,000 3B $6,000
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.331 0.364 0.274 41.7% 10.7% 28.9% 29.2% OF $4,000 OF $4,000 LF $7,700
4 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.389 0.374 0.295 41.2% 13.9% 22.9% 24.5% 3B $3,700 3B $3,600 3B $7,300
5 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.292 0.306 0.197 31.7% 7.0% 24.8% 33.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 RF $6,800
6 Juan Lagares RIGHT 0.284 0.231 0.091 29.9% 7.3% 21.8% 48.7% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 CF $5,400
7 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.300 0.292 0.200 30.4% 3.2% 22.6% 45.7% SS $2,400 SS $2,800 SS $5,400
8 Jose Lobaton SWITCH 0.209 0.381 0.021 22.5% 4.1% 14.3% 61.5% C $2,000 C $2,500 C $4,600
9 Noah Syndergaard RIGHT 0.000 0.047 0.000 100.0% 0.0% 75.0% 0.0% P $10,100 P $11,600 P $22,000

Elite Plays – Yoenis Cespedes, Wilmer Flores

Secondary Plays – Todd Frazier

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Toronto Tampa Bay
torontomlb Marco Estrada tampabaymlb Chris Archer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -140 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.292 24.7% 6.9% 21.5% 33.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.346 0.322 42.2% 8.8% 27.1% 43.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.374 0.340 30.8% 9.9% 21.2% 27.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.288 0.296 37.2% 5.4% 29.6% 40.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Estrada
marco-estrada-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $11,100
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 4.69 4.98 21.8% 8.8% 30.3% 27.2% 21.4%
2018 6 4.89 6.19 18.6% 7.1% 26.9% 32.7% 18.3%

Marco Estrada has quietly enjoyed a solid career, but the 34-year-old is pretty clearly on the back-9. His 4.89 SIERA suggests that he’s pitched better than his 6.19 ERA would suggest, but it’s not like a 4.89 SIERA is something to write home about. His strikeouts are down to 18.6% so far this season, and he’s a high fly-ball pitcher with a pronounced reverse split. He’s not a gas can, and plenty of those fly balls just wind up being harmless, lazy pop-ups. He’s super cheap on DraftKings today at $5,600, and he’s going into a pitcher-friendly park today against what looks to be a fairly unimpressive Rays lineup. If you want to pair one of the pricey aces with a super cheap play, Estrada isn’t an unreasonable try. Just know that he comes with plenty of blow-up risk.

Quick Breakdown: I won’t be going here, but Estrada’s super cheap price tag at least puts him on the SP2 radar. He’s a full fade on single-pitcher sites.

Chris Archer
chris-archer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $15,800
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 34 3.44 4.07 29.2% 7.0% 42.0% 39.4% 13.2%
2018 7 3.70 6.05 24.6% 7.0% 43.1% 40.5% 16.4%

We’ve been waiting for the right time to play Chris Archer this season, and that may be today. The wealth of pitching options at our disposal on this slate may cause him to go overlooked. He’s a guy with a decorated track record, but he’s been getting hit hard so far in 2018. He’s been rather unlucky with a hefty .373 BABIP against him this season, but plenty of that has to do with the fact that hitters are crushing the ball to the tune of a 40.5% hard contact rate against him. Archer has held righties in check, but lefties have been giving him problems dating back to last season. His strikeout rate is down about five percentage points from where we saw it a season ago, which is obviously important from a DFS perspective. I certainly think Archer’s bad luck will turn around at some point, and it’s generally better to target him when he’s pitching at home. There are some strikeouts in this Toronto lineup, though they do also have plenty of power.

Quick Breakdown: From a raw points perspective, Archer is my No. 4 pitcher on the slate behind Scherzer, Sale and Syndergaard. He makes for a decent SP2 option in cash games and an elite GPP play given the upside/risk combo.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Chris Archer has struggled with his form this season, but I’m a believer in his talent and don’t make a habit of piling up bats against him. The Trop isn’t a haven for hitters, but I also don’t hate the idea of deploying a few Toronto lefties given the chance of an Archer meltdown outing. Of course, the Jays don’t have that many favorable lefty bats to begin with. Justin Smoak and Yangervis Solarte are cheap enough to where they can be used as one-offs, though I won’t be stacking this offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.404 0.425 0.350 39.5% 7.0% 26.4% 37.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,100 CF $8,200
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.386 0.331 0.268 35.2% 15.3% 23.0% 42.0% 3B $3,900 3B $4,900 3B $9,100
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.401 0.400 0.257 39.9% 11.9% 22.6% 34.0% 1B $3,500 1B $3,700 1B $7,500
4 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.324 0.378 0.205 31.8% 7.9% 13.6% 38.3% 3B $3,800 3B $3,700 2B $7,700
5 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.314 0.366 0.142 27.6% 5.4% 15.9% 44.1% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 CF $7,200
6 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.357 0.282 0.180 36.0% 8.0% 21.9% 46.7% 1B $2,600 1B $3,500 1B $6,500
7 Dalton Pompey RIGHT 0.000 0.294 OF $2,000 OF $2,600 CF $5,000
8 Luke Maile RIGHT 0.264 0.283 0.103 28.2% 4.8% 26.4% 48.2% C $2,700 C $3,000 C $5,400
9 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.293 0.302 0.178 26.9% 3.5% 13.2% 45.8% SS $2,500 SS $3,000 SS $5,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak, Yangervis Solarte

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

While Estrada is a pitcher with a home run problem, this Rays offense isn’t one that inspires much confidence from a DFS point of view. Estrada has historically shown a pronounced reverse split, though he’s struggled this season with hitters from either side of the plate. If you want a cheap option that figures to be hitting high in the order, Matt Duffy looks like a solid salary-saver today priced under $3,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Considering plenty will choose to pay up at both pitcher spots, Duffy makes for an elite cash game option as a value. Other hitters like Wilson Ramos, C.J. Cron and Denard Span are playable against Estrada.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.344 0.381 0.179 28.5% 8.5% 12.5% 41.8% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 CF $8,200
2 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.334 0.354 0.173 35.0% 5.0% 25.1% 34.6% 1B $2,900 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
3 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.290 0.259 0.093 24.4% 5.3% 22.8% 46.3% 3B $2,800 3B $2,800 3B $5,700
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.328 0.382 0.138 36.7% 16.0% 26.8% 46.9% 1B $2,800 1B $3,100 2B $6,000
5 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.331 0.486 0.188 33.9% 5.1% 17.6% 52.7% C $2,700 C $3,900 C $7,200
6 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.306 0.309 0.184 40.3% 7.1% 17.9% 54.8% 2B $2,700 2B $3,600 2B $7,300
7 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.345 0.274 0.211 40.4% 7.6% 29.8% 38.2% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 CF $6,300
8 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.267 0.228 0.086 21.0% 9.0% 18.3% 48.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
9 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.296 0.321 0.125 36.5% 3.6% 19.0% 49.2% SS $2,600 SS $3,100 SS $5,700

Elite Plays – Matt Duffy (cash)

Secondary Plays – Matt Duffy (GPP), Denard Span, C.J. Cron, Wilson Ramos, Carlos Gomez

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia at Washington – 1:35 PM ET

Philadelphia Washington
philadelphiamlb Jake Arrieta washingtonmlb Max Scherzer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-205 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.337 0.322 30.2% 8.9% 24.0% 43.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.287 0.285 26.7% 8.6% 27.5% 32.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.271 0.289 25.6% 7.1% 20.8% 50.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.191 0.204 29.2% 4.8% 44.4% 43.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Arrieta
jake-arrieta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 4.15 3.53 23.1% 7.8% 45.1% 29.4% 20.0%
2018 5 4.23 3.49 17.1% 8.6% 61.2% 17.4% 17.4%

As recently as two years ago, a matchup between Jake Arrieta and Max Scherzer would have been must-see. Now, though, it looks rather one-sided. Arrieta has pitched fairly well this season, though there are signs that some regression could be coming his way. He’s allowed a remarkably low hard contact rate of just 17.4% along with an elite ground ball rate over 61%. Arrieta is a ground ball pitcher to begin with, but he’s not a guy that is going to maintain that kind of GB% over the course of a full season. His strikeouts have also fallen off the face of the planet, which is…problematic. Arrieta has a K-rate of just 17.1%, which is good if you’re Justin Nicolino, and bad if you’re almost anybody else. He’s facing a watered-down Nationals lineup, but Arrieta is overpriced given the lack of strikeout upside he’s flashed this year.

Quick Breakdown: Arrieta may garner some ownership via name recognition alone, but he’s an easy fade in my eyes.

Max Scherzer
max-scherzer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,600 Salary: $13,400 Salary: $25,400
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 2.98 2.51 34.4% 7.1% 36.5% 26.5% 19.5%
2018 7 2.44 1.79 37.4% 6.3% 36.8% 33.3% 24.0%

The argument can be made that Max Scherzer is the best starter in baseball these days, and it’s hard to suggest otherwise. Other than the fact that he’s a fly ball pitcher that will allow some dongs, Mad Max checks just about every box. He has an elite strikeout rate over 37% on the season, combined with an above-average walk rate. He’s been absolutely lights-out against righties (.207 wOBA allowed), and not a whole lot worse against lefties (.244). Scherzer is at home today pitching against a Phillies lineup that has the second-worst K-rate in the league against right-handed pitching this season (26.4%). His price tag is prohibitive, especially on DK, but Scherzer is the top option on the board today.

Quick Breakdown: He’s Max Scherzer. Even though he’s expensive, you play him in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies have the worst matchup on the slate against Max Scherzer. Someone like Rhys Hoskins or Carlos Santana have the chance to get into one against him, but I don’t see any reason to have exposure to Philadelphia bats here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.317 0.443 0.117 22.8% 11.4% 21.5% 49.2% 2B $3,400 2B $3,400 2B $6,700
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.393 0.318 0.290 41.1% 15.2% 25.2% 29.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,200 1B $8,500
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.318 0.359 0.166 28.2% 6.7% 20.2% 41.5% OF $3,100 OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,700
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.389 0.341 0.203 35.2% 14.1% 16.9% 33.8% 1B $2,800 1B $2,900 1B $5,900
5 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.322 0.414 0.177 29.6% 6.2% 16.0% 45.1% 3B $3,300 3B $3,100 3B $5,600
6 Nick Williams LEFT 0.336 0.163 0.186 35.5% 6.5% 28.1% 47.2% OF $2,000 OF $2,600 LF $4,800
7 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.336 0.245 0.145 33.3% 6.5% 24.7% 31.4% SS $2,400 3B/SS $2,900 SS $5,900
8 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.348 0.372 0.230 30.8% 2.3% 33.8% 52.6% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,800
9 Jake Arrieta RIGHT 0.153 0.156 0.091 25.9% 3.4% 50.8% 48.0% P $8,300 P $8,600 P $16,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

While Arrieta is pretty clearly in decline, he’s also not a pitcher I typically want to load up against. Obviously, Bryce Harper is a good enough hitter to where he’s in play every time he takes the field, especially now that he’s (probably) hitting leadoff. If you want some Nats exposure, I’d limit that to Harper and the other left-handed sticks in the lineup. Matt Adams has been hot lately, if you’re into that sort of thing.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.444 0.462 0.346 37.0% 19.0% 16.8% 37.0% OF $5,500 OF $5,500 RF $10,600
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.329 0.316 0.180 30.1% 7.8% 18.3% 52.0% SS $4,500 SS $4,600 IF/OF $9,200
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.364 0.198 32.4% 12.7% 13.6% 34.6% 3B $3,000 3B $3,700 3B $7,600
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.381 0.387 0.242 40.3% 6.7% 23.7% 46.0% 1B $3,000 1B $3,500 1B $6,600
5 Matt Adams LEFT 0.381 0.553 0.278 40.0% 7.9% 23.8% 36.0% 1B $3,900 1B/OF $3,800 1B $7,600
6 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.316 0.344 0.167 30.7% 4.7% 20.8% 59.0% 2B $3,400 2B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,600
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.308 0.392 0.118 28.4% 8.5% 17.5% 41.3% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,700
8 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.225 0.249 0.000 18.3% 5.3% 15.8% 63.0% P $11,600 P $13,400 P $25,400
9 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.292 0.327 0.186 31.9% 7.8% 31.4% 44.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,800 CF $7,600

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Matt Adams, Matt Wieters

Stackability – ORANGE

San Francisco at Atlanta – 1:35 PM ET

San Francisco Atlanta
sanfranciscomlb Andrew Suarez atlantamlb Mike Soroka
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-137 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.165 0.293 36.4% 0.0% 26.7% 36.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.068 0.255 33.3% 0.0% 30.8% 66.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.352 0.328 57.9% 3.6% 28.6% 47.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.596 0.591 55.6% 0.0% 10.0% 22.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Suarez
andrew-suarez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $11,000
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 2 2.93 4.38 27.9% 2.3% 43.3% 50.0% 16.7%

Andrew Suarez has made two starts at the big league level this season, and he’s pitched pretty well. The 4.38 ERA isn’t awe-inspiring, but his 2.93 SIERA suggests he’s been better than that. He’s shown both in the minors and the majors that he has solid strikeout stuff, as evidenced by his 24.6% K-rate at Triple-A and 27.9% mark in the big leagues. It is worth noting that he faced a weak Padres offense at home last time out, and today he faces a much tougher matchup going into Atlanta against a surging Braves offense. With all of the other options out there, I see no reason to walk the tightrope with a guy like Suarez.

Quick Breakdown: Suarez gets a substantial park downgrade and he’s going up against a team that is crushing the ball this season. Pass.

Mike Soroka
mike-soroka-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 1 3.07 1.50 21.7% 0.0% 44.4% 44.4% 16.7%

Mike Soroka made his MLB debut earlier this week, and he pitched pretty well. He was incredibly cheap around the industry, so he drew plenty of ownership given the fact that he’s one of the Braves’ top-ranked prospects. The 20-year-old was solid, limiting the Mets to just a run on 6 hits in 6 innings of work. He also struck out five without allowing a walk on the way to his first big league win. Soroka flashed a high ground ball rate during his time with the minors along with decent strikeout potential. He’s seen a substantial price hike, however, going from $4,000 on DK to $7,500 here today. The Giants aren’t the most imposing offense around, but a young pitcher like Soroka comes with more risk than upside in this spot.

Quick Breakdown: Soroka is a name to watch moving forward, but I’m more likely to play a couple of cheap Giants bats against him in this spot.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants sure seem to be enjoying their time away from AT&T Park. The Giants have come into Atlanta and put a total of 20 runs on the board in their first two games of this series. Mike Soroka probably isn’t a guy I want to load up against, but most of the Giants hitters are cheap enough to where they make for a good source of value on this slate. Gregor Blanco is dirt cheap around the industry, and he makes for an elite play if he’s leading off. Left-handed bats are the preferred targets against the righty today, but I won’t talk you out of guys like Buster Posey or Andrew McCutchen, either. The Giants are a sneaky offense to like today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Gregor Blanco LEFT 0.300 0.257 0.117 28.1% 12.7% 21.7% 43.6% OF $2,500 OF $2,600 LF $4,800
2 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.348 0.465 0.155 35.2% 11.3% 18.5% 42.8% OF $3,700 OF $3,700 RF $7,400
3 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.352 0.349 0.113 30.5% 9.3% 11.9% 46.8% C $3,300 1B/C $3,600 C $7,600
4 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.424 0.499 0.284 42.3% 16.7% 22.4% 24.5% 1B $3,700 1B $4,200 IF/OF $8,400
5 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.316 0.362 0.166 35.4% 4.4% 15.8% 42.4% 3B $3,400 3B $3,800 3B $7,500
6 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.315 0.299 0.145 34.9% 6.8% 22.2% 46.8% SS $2,600 SS $2,800 SS $5,700
7 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.304 0.262 0.112 36.6% 7.5% 25.0% 45.1% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 CF $5,400
8 Alen Hanson SWITCH 0.229 0.272 0.124 20.7% 4.8% 22.6% 47.6% 2B $2,700 2B/SS $3,100 2B $5,500
9 Andrew Suarez LEFT 0.347 0.347 0.000 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 0.0% P $6,300 P $5,500 P $11,000

Elite Plays – Gregor Blanco, Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Buster Posey, Alen Hanson

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Atlanta

It feels weird to say considering how mediocre they’ve been for the last several years, but the Braves look downright daunting these days. They’ve got a deluge of young talent throughout their organization, and some of those guys are making their way to the big leagues. The way to attack Andrew Suarez would appear to be with the righties, and the Braves have plenty of those. Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Johan Camargo and even the dusty old vet Jose Bautista are in play. Ditto for whichever catcher (Tyler Flowers or Kurt Suzuki) cracks the lineup. I’ll never talk you out of Freddie Freeman, either, even with the lefty-lefty matchup. He’s an elite GPP first baseman if you have the funds. The problem with stacking the Braves is that most of them are pricey, which makes it tough to squeeze them in on this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.391 0.304 0.342 36.1% 8.0% 9.2% 45.1% 2B $4,700 2B $5,100 2B $10,100
2 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.483 0.391 0.571 42.9% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% OF $4,000 OF $4,900 CF $9,500
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.391 0.472 0.260 35.9% 10.1% 21.3% 37.6% 1B $4,800 1B $5,300 1B $10,200
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.320 0.471 0.145 29.3% 8.5% 16.6% 49.7% OF $4,000 OF $4,300 RF $8,000
5 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.427 0.331 0.384 41.8% 7.3% 7.3% 26.9% C $3,000 C $3,800 C $7,600
6 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.268 0.361 0.129 22.5% 11.2% 26.7% 45.9% 3B $3,000 3B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,400
7 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.350 0.328 0.278 32.8% 4.8% 21.7% 39.3% SS $3,000 3B/SS $3,200 SS $6,600
8 Mike Soroka RIGHT 0.194 P $7,300 P $7,500 P $14,800
9 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.272 0.302 0.064 17.1% 8.9% 12.0% 60.8% OF $3,200 OF $4,600 CF $8,900

Elite Plays – Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Jose Bautista, Freddie Freeman (GPP), Tyler Flowers / Kurt Suzuki

Secondary Plays – Johan Camargo, Freddie Freeman (cash)

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles