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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, May 8th

by Andrew Cook (louiescards) Last Updated 2016-05-09 03:36:20

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

LA Dodgers at Toronto – 1:07 PM

LA Dodgers Toronto
ladodgersmlb Ross Stripling torontomlb Marco Estrada
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -170 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.255 0 19.4% 8.1% SP vs. Left 0.282 16 17.1% 8.2%
SP vs. Right 0.368 1 18.2% 12.7% SP vs. Right 0.270 10 20.7% 7.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ross Stripling
ross-stripling-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $5,100
FPPG: 21.6 FPPG: 11.2
Pitcher Rating: 33.7 Pitcher Rank: 28
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 5 4.45 18.8% 10.3% 45.0% 32.5% 26
2015 5

Ross Stripling: In general you do not want to start pitchers in Rogers Centre against the Blue Jays unless they fall into the elite category. While Stripling started the season taking a no hitter into the seventh inning we have not seen the same magic since. He has allowed a bunch of hits and runs to lesser teams lately and we can easily fade him here against Toronto.

Marco Estrada
marco-estrada-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $7,300
FPPG: 32.2 FPPG: 17.9
Pitcher Rating: 53.0 Pitcher Rank: 18
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 5 4.17 22.4% 9.6% 38.1% 28.2% 21
2015 28 4.64 18.1% 7.6% 32.2% 27.4% 17

Marco Estrada: Estrada is a pitcher that we used to pick on pretty heavily during his Milwaukee days because he gave up the long ball on a routine basis. Last year he cut that number down and enjoyed some success with Toronto and it was hard to tell if he just had a fluke season. Well here we are five starts into the season and he continues to pitch pretty well. Something of note is that Estrada has added a cutter to his repertoire this season which has been very effective yielding just a .164 wOBA. With a solid offense behind him and a list of available pitchers only a mother could love (see what I did there) there is some merit to throwing him tournaments and possibly using him as a secondary on multiple pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Chase Utley LEFT 0.308 0.151 0.391 2B $3,000 2B $3,600
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.369 0.183 0.391 SS $3,700 SS $3,600
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.372 0.192 0.322 3B $2,600 3B $3,100
4 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.356 0.216 0.254 1B $2,800 1B $3,600
5 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.337 0.179 0.280 C $2,900 C $3,100
6 Kike Hernandez RIGHT 0.245 0.081 0.144 OF $2,000 OF $3,000
7 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.312 0.107 0.226 2B $2,300 2B/3B $3,400
8 Joc Pederson LEFT 0.351 0.215 0.431 OF $2,600 OF $3,600
9 Carl Crawford LEFT 0.302 0.153 0.203 OF $2,000 OF $3,000
Team Averages — 0.328 0.164 0.294 — — — —

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager , Joc Pederson

Stackability – None

Toronto

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.318 0.111 0.403 OF $3,300 OF $3,800
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.387 0.260 0.417 3B $4,400 3B $5,100
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.391 0.295 0.274 OF $4,000 OF $4,600
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.383 0.268 0.347 1B $3,900 1B $4,700
5 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.343 0.229 0.358 1B $2,400 1B $3,300
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.316 0.160 0.279 SS $3,000 SS $3,700
7 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.315 0.129 0.464 OF $3,000 OF $3,900
8 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.308 0.186 0.271 C $2,400 C $3,300
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.290 0.101 0.107 2B $2,000 2B $2,500
Team Averages — 0.339 0.193 0.324 — — — —

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak , Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – GPP

Texas at Detroit – 1:08 PM

Texas Detroit
texasmlb Martin Perez detroitmlb Justin Verlander
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET -144 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.250 1 24.8% 9.9% SP vs. Left 0.278 10 20.7% 6.4%
SP vs. Right 0.338 5 10.8% 8.4% SP vs. Right 0.315 10 22.0% 6.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Martin Perez
martin-perez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $6,500
FPPG: 21.5 FPPG: 10.1
Pitcher Rating: 28.5 Pitcher Rank: 29
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 6 5.32 12.6% 12.6% 54.9% 27.6% 6
2015 14 4.06 14.2% 7.1% 59.9% 22.7% 20

Martin Perez: Perez has been pretty much the same pitcher we have seen throughout his career up to this point with just one glaring difference. That difference is his BABIP currently sits at .265 which is roughly forty points lower than he has allowed over the years. With a similar ground ball and hard hit rate we can expect some regression for Mr. Perez as we move forward and the Tigers are built to hit left handed pitching. This is an easy fade and you will want to take a look at Detroit bats today.

Justin Verlander
justin-verlander-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,800
FPPG: 25.3 FPPG: 12.0
Pitcher Rating: 59.8 Pitcher Rank: 13
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 6 4.15 22.2% 8.7% 34.3% 35.0% 8
2015 20 3.95 21.1% 6.0% 34.6% 23.0% 8

Justin Verlander: Verlander is a guy who just doesn’t have the same command on the mound anymore. He is running deep into the count on a routine basis either surrendering walks or getting hit hard elevating his pitch count pretty much every game. In his six starts he has allowed seven home runs to the opposition and this is a Texas squad that has hit the ball pretty well at times while not striking out a ton.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.334 0.210 0.359 2B $3,700 2B $3,700
2 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.419 0.192 0.344 OF $3,300 OF $2,800
3 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.309 0.137 0.233 3B $3,000 3B $3,200
4 Prince Fielder LEFT 0.370 0.152 0.269 1B $2,900 1B $3,500
5 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.281 0.132 0.393 OF $3,100 OF $3,400
6 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.367 0.231 0.271 OF $3,100 1B $3,200
7 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.277 0.078 0.254 SS $2,800 SS $3,000
8 Bobby Wilson RIGHT 0.252 0.074 0.269 C $2,200
9 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.308 0.105 0.205 OF $2,700 OF $3,000
Team Averages — 0.324 0.146 0.289 — — — —

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Rougned Odor , Nomar Mazara

Stackability – None

Detroit

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.364 0.162 0.248 2B $3,400 2B $4,200
2 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.393 0.275 0.226 OF $2,800 OF $3,800
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.402 0.190 0.403 1B $3,700 1B $4,500
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.382 0.142 0.486 C $3,400 1B $4,300
5 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.249 0.096 0.294 OF $3,200 OF $3,300
6 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.396 0.235 0.481 3B $3,500 3B $4,400
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.370 0.219 0.202 C $2,000 C $3,200
8 Anthony Gose LEFT 0.245 0.065 0.312 OF $2,500 OF $2,700
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.377 0.095 0.199 SS $2,100 SS $3,100
Team Averages — 0.353 0.164 0.317 — — — —

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera , Victor Martinez

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos , Ian Kinsler

Stackability – GPP/Cash

Kansas City at Cleveland – 1:10 PM

Kansas City Cleveland
kansascitymlb Edinson Volquez clevelandmlb Josh Tomlin
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE -125 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.295 11 18.6% 8.5% SP vs. Left 0.220 5 19.5% 1.9%
SP vs. Right 0.308 7 18.6% 8.0% SP vs. Right 0.336 11 22.7% 3.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Edinson Volquez
edinson-volquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $7,000
FPPG: 34.2 FPPG: 17.5
Pitcher Rating: 49.4 Pitcher Rank: 20
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 6 3.79 20.4% 7.0% 52.7% 22.8% 24
2015 33 4.35 18.2% 8.5% 46.0% 30.4% 9

Edinson Volquez: Volquez has been one of the early surprises on the mound this season as he has enjoyed a lot of success to this point. Outside of a blowup game against the Angels we have seen him shutdown his other five opponents and some of the stats suggest there is staying power here. We have seen his xFIP dip below four and a strikeout rate that has increased slightly while maintaining a similar BABIP. Also something of note is that Volquez is creating a lower hard hit rate this year which is something to keep an eye on. All things considered he makes for a good secondary option on multiple pitchers sites today.

Josh Tomlin
josh-tomlin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $6,900
FPPG: 35.3 FPPG: 17.0
Pitcher Rating: 69.4 Pitcher Rank: 10
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 4 3.94 17.2% 2.2% 39.7% 40.5% 10
2015 10 3.46 22.7% 3.2% 37.5% 33.2% 1

Josh Tomlin: Tomlin is steady as he goes with a modest SIERA and strikeout rate making him a fringe secondary option. The problem is that I still do not like to pick on the Royals with pitching despite some early season signs of weaknes. Ultimately we have a situation where the limited options may force Tomlin on to a team or two in tournaments today and that is not terrible giving the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.270 0.064 0.288 SS $2,700 SS $3,600
2 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.322 0.121 0.216 OF $3,000 OF $3,900
3 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.383 0.184 0.451 1B $3,400 1B $4,500
4 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.352 0.227 0.155 1B $2,000 1B $3,500
5 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.341 0.156 0.282 OF $2,300 OF $3,500
6 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.332 0.196 0.244 C $2,700 C $3,600
7 Omar Infante RIGHT 0.242 0.098 0.242 2B $2,100 2B $2,800
8 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.288 0.192 3B $2,000 3B $2,900
9 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.302 0.130 0.258 OF $2,500 OF $3,800
Team Averages — 0.315 0.152 0.267 — — — —

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer

Stackability – None

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.331 0.171 0.315 OF $3,700 OF $3,500
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.386 0.166 0.312 2B $3,400 2B $4,400
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.338 0.145 0.349 SS $3,700 SS $4,100
4 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.373 0.176 0.261 OF $3,300 OF $4,500
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.342 0.211 0.437 1B $3,300 1B $4,100
6 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.274 0.145 0.273 1B $3,300 1B $3,200
7 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.287 0.133 0.291 OF $2,100 OF $3,000
8 Chris Gimenez RIGHT 0.307 0.181 0.689 C $2,200 C $2,400
9 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.302 0.132 0.347 P $4,000 3B/OF $3,300
Team Averages — 0.327 0.162 0.364 — — — —

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor

Stackability – None

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM

Milwaukee Cincinnati
milwaukeemlb Junior Guerra cincinnatimlb John Lamb
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN -135 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.425 0 8.3% 8.3% SP vs. Left 0.446 3 23.0% 13.1%
SP vs. Right 0.339 1 17.2% 3.5% SP vs. Right 0.339 5 26.0% 7.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Junior Guerra
junior-guerra-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,400 Salary: $4,600
FPPG: 27.0 FPPG: 10.7
Pitcher Rating: 45.8 Pitcher Rank: 23
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 1 4.61 13.0% 4.4% 33.3% 36.8% 22
2015 0 3.28 16.7% 5.6% 57.1% 21.4% 13

Junior Guerra: Guerra had an OK first major league start against the Angels last time out pitching six innings surrendering seven hits and four earned runs. He did not strikeout or walk many in that outing but was giving up solid contact which could be a problem in Great American Ballpark today. This is a situation where I want to see more of him before I even think about rostering him and as of now we should be much more inclined to put some Reds in our lineups.

John Lamb
john-lamb-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,200 Salary: $7,200
FPPG: 27.0 FPPG: 14.1
Pitcher Rating: 77.6 Pitcher Rank: 5
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 1 5.34 15.4% 11.5% 27.8% 36.8% 20
2015 10 3.56 26.4% 8.6% 37.7% 23.4% 23

John Lamb: Lamb came to the Reds as part of the Johnny Cueto trade and is thought to be a great piece moving forward for Cincinatti. He has struggled with injury this year but looked really solid in his first start against San Francisco. There is strikeout potential as seen by his 25% K% through his first eleven games as a big leaguer. The issue has been control both in his rehab and that game against the Giants which will need to be cleaned up. Ultimately we are talking about DFS here and Lamb is a guy you can consider as a secondary option on multiple pitcher sites today.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Alex Presley LEFT 0.449 0.000 0.393 OF $2,500 OF $3,100
2 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.349 0.174 0.329 SS $3,400 SS $3,300
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.405 0.230 0.459 OF $4,200 OF $4,900
4 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.257 0.068 0.408 C $3,100 C $3,400
5 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.335 0.223 0.492 1B $3,400 1B $4,100
6 Colin Walsh SWITCH 0.298 0.000 0.293 2B $2,000 3B $2,000
7 Aaron Hill RIGHT 0.265 0.073 0.291 3B $2,200 2B/3B $2,500
8 Ramon Flores LEFT 0.184 0.000 0.189 OF $2,000 OF $2,900
9 Junior Guerra RIGHT 0.000 P $5,400 P $4,600
Team Averages — 0.318 0.096 0.317 — — — —

Elite Plays – Ryan Braun

Secondary Plays – Chris Carter

Stackability – None

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.329 0.199 0.383 SS $3,500 SS $3,800
2 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.240 0.044 0.284 OF $2,500 OF $4,200
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.408 0.224 0.398 1B $3,600 1B $5,000
4 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.317 0.110 0.311 2B $2,600 2B $4,300
5 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.322 0.236 0.292 OF $3,600 OF $4,600
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.315 0.160 0.321 3B $3,000 3B $4,600
7 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.359 0.314 0.327 OF $3,100 OF $4,100
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.306 0.089 0.272 C $2,200 C $2,800
9 John Lamb LEFT 0.126 0.100 0.000 P $5,200 P $7,200
Team Averages — 0.302 0.164 0.288 — — — —

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Jay Bruce , Brandon Phillips

Stackability – GPP

Philadelphia at Miami – 1:10 PM

Philadelphia Miami
philadelphiamlb Aaron Nola miamimlb Justin Nicolino
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA -110 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.310 5 15.8% 7.4% SP vs. Left 0.297 1 11.8% 6.6%
SP vs. Right 0.255 9 29.4% 4.3% SP vs. Right 0.318 8 5.8% 7.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Nola
aaron-nola-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $10,100
FPPG: 39.5 FPPG: 23.5
Pitcher Rating: 76.6 Pitcher Rank: 6
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 6 2.64 29.1% 4.6% 50.0% 21.0% 4
2015 13 3.66 21.4% 6.0% 47.6% 28.8% 6

Aaron Nola: Nola is one of my favorite pitchers on the board today and has a pretty good matchup with the Marlins. The Phillies young pitcher has a 29% strikeout rate and is only allowing a 21% hard hit rate which are both numbers I like to look at when picking pitchers for the day. The SIERA and GB% are obviously very good as well and that makes him one of the better options for the day.

Justin Nicolino
justin-nicolino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,300
FPPG: 29.0 FPPG: 12.8
Pitcher Rating: 40.3 Pitcher Rank: 26
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% HH% O-K%
2016 2 6.29 3.9% 9.6% 48.8% 33.3% 30
2015 12 5.59 7.6% 6.6% 44.4% 30.2% 17

Justin Nicolino: The shine wore off pretty quickly for Nicolino who looked great in his first start against the Dodgers but struggled to follow it up at home against the Diamondbacks allowing seven hits and four earned runs. The reality is that he just is not striking out enough hitters to even consider him as a pitching play even against the Phillies.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.332 0.092 0.425 OF $3,400 OF $3,300
2 Cesar Hernandez RIGHT 0.319 0.065 0.323 2B $2,000 2B $2,800
3 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.355 0.258 0.328 3B $2,800 3B $4,000
4 Darin Ruf RIGHT 0.445 0.271 0.193 1B $2,000 1B/OF $3,800
5 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.254 0.034 0.255 SS $2,600 SS $2,900
6 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.357 0.222 0.265 C $2,100 C $3,300
7 Tyler Goeddel RIGHT 0.118 0.000 0.236 OF $2,000 OF $3,600
8 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.157 P $8,500 P $10,100
9 Peter Bourjos RIGHT 0.238 0.125 0.188 OF $2,000 OF $2,700
Team Averages — 0.269 0.119 0.263 — — — —

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Maikel Franco

Stackability – None

Miami

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.297 0.135 0.463 C $2,900 C $2,800
2 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.314 0.093 0.392 3B $2,800 3B $3,100
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.362 0.141 0.372 OF $3,500 OF $3,800
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.381 0.296 0.515 OF $4,900 OF $4,700
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.356 0.241 0.415 1B $2,900 1B $2,900
6 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.284 0.119 0.426 OF $3,400 OF $3,300
7 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.383 0.244 0.393 2B $2,800 2B/3B $2,900
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.323 0.086 0.327 SS $2,000 3B/SS $2,200
9 Justin Nicolino LEFT 0.000 0.000 0.000 P $6,600 P $5,300
Team Averages — 0.300 0.151 0.367 — — — —

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich

Stackability – None

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About the Author

louiescards
Andrew Cook (louiescards)

Andrew “LouiesCards” Cook is a DFS veteran who has been playing since 2009. You will see him grinding MLB, NBA, and NFL with a main focus on DraftKings. Over the years he has held several roles at RotoGrinders helping write articles and features, both in-front and behind-the-scenes. Andrew was able to throw the first pitch out at a St. Louis Cardinals game, courtesy of DraftKings. You can follow Andrew on twitter @louiescards