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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, August 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-08-11 02:33:11

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

San Diego at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

San Diego Cincinnati
sandiegomlb Dinelson Lamet cincinnatimlb Luis Castillo
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-137 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.397 0.330 38.6% 10.5% 23.1% 38.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.279 0.249 25.0% 10.9% 21.8% 55.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.220 0.281 37.8% 8.0% 35.8% 37.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.322 0.288 28.6% 9.8% 27.7% 62.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dinelson Lamet
dinelson-lamet-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 7 of 24 Salary Rank: 9 of 24 Salary Rank: of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 12 3.68 5.12 29.5% 9.2% 37.9% 38.3% 14.8%
L30 4 4.10 3.63 26.9% 10.8% 40.0% 35.7% 14.3%

Lamet came out of the gates firing when he was first called up to the big leagues. He has shown massive strikeout potential, but we are starting to see major league hitters figure him out a bit. Over his last four starts, his SIERA is over 4.00. He is the definition of a boom or bust play because he’s either going to strikeout the opposing hitter or give up hard contact; there hasn’t been a lot in between. There are only two early games on the schedule, which means options are limited. With that said, I’d rank Lamet third out of the four pitchers in the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Lamet has as much upside as any pitcher in the early slate, but his volatility gives him a low floor.

Luis Castillo
luis-castillo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $9,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 12 of 24 Salary Rank: 8 of 24 Salary Rank: of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 9 4.05 3.64 24.8% 10.4% 58.9% 26.8% 21.8%
L30 6 4.19 3.32 22.2% 9.4% 57.6% 25.0% 24.0%

Castillo is another rookie pitcher that has shown some promise in the big leagues this season. In nine starts, he has a 4.05 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. I prefer him over Dinelson Lamet for three reasons. First, he is pitching at home, which is beneficial for young pitchers. Second, he has the better matchup. The Padres are one of the worst offenses in baseball and they aren’t strangers to the strikeout. And third, he has an elite ground ball rate compared to Lamet, who has a high fly-ball rate. With this game being played in the Great American Ballpark, it helps to be able to keep the ball on the ground.

Quick Breakdown: Castillo is my favorite pitcher in the early slate and is viable in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres’ offense has come alive a bit in this series, mostly thanks to favorable matchups and a hitter-friendly ballpark. While they still have the ballpark in their corner, their matchup against Luis Castillo is far from ideal. He has an above-average ground ball rate and a 59% ground ball rate. The sample size is still small (nine starts), but Castillo has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA and under a 29% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Manuel Margot RIGHT 0.304 0.281 0.142 25.8% 3.9% 22.4% 39.8% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
2 Carlos Asuaje LEFT 0.368 0.315 0.140 31.7% 9.9% 21.5% 30.4% 2B $2,600 2B $3,800 N/A N/A
3 Jose Pirela RIGHT 0.348 0.292 0.220 31.7% 4.4% 19.0% 43.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
4 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.344 0.311 0.187 31.2% 9.7% 11.4% 41.0% 2B $2,800 2B $4,100 N/A N/A
5 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.327 0.306 0.216 37.7% 9.3% 28.4% 38.1% 1B $2,900 1B $4,000 N/A N/A
6 Cory Spangenberg LEFT 0.337 0.303 0.139 29.2% 8.3% 20.8% 45.6% 3B $2,900 3B/OF $3,600 N/A N/A
7 Hunter Renfroe RIGHT 0.276 0.273 0.196 34.6% 4.1% 32.2% 41.1% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
8 Hector Sanchez SWITCH 0.313 0.290 0.258 38.6% 4.3% 32.9% 31.8% C $2,000 C $2,800 N/A N/A
9 Dinelson Lamet RIGHT 0.058 0.097 0.000 20.0% 0.0% 68.8% 50.0% P $8,300 P $8,900 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Pirela, Yangervis Solarte, Wil Myers

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati

Dinelson Lamet has a high strikeout rate, but he also has a high walk rate, a high fly-ball rate, and a high hard contact rate. There is certainly some upside with the Reds’ offense today, especially in this home run-friendly ballpark. Lamet has really been tough on righties in his first 12 major league starts, but has allowed a .330 xwOBA to lefties. Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, and Scooter Gennett are the preferred targets here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.299 0.264 0.092 16.9% 8.6% 20.1% 45.4% OF $3,300 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.382 0.316 0.231 30.1% 13.1% 16.7% 42.0% SS $3,100 SS $4,600 N/A N/A
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.429 0.432 0.274 37.3% 17.5% 10.9% 36.8% 1B $4,700 1B $5,300 N/A N/A
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.329 0.292 0.236 33.6% 5.0% 27.0% 30.1% OF $3,700 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.408 0.341 0.285 40.0% 6.5% 21.5% 42.0% 2B $2,300 2B/OF $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.349 0.341 0.203 30.5% 11.9% 23.1% 42.7% 3B $2,900 3B $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Jesse Winker LEFT 0.379 0.372 0.226 42.3% 18.4% 13.2% 65.4% OF $2,300 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.317 0.329 0.118 34.1% 9.5% 14.0% 42.1% C $2,500 C $3,100 N/A N/A
9 Luis Castillo RIGHT 0.058 0.109 0.000 9.1% 0.0% 35.3% 62.5% P $7,600 P $9,400 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall, Jesse Winker

Stackability – YELLOW

Pittsburgh at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Pittsburgh Detroit
pittsburghmlb Gerrit Cole detroitmlb Drew VerHagen
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-140 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.354 0.325 36.7% 6.4% 22.3% 40.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.426 0.359 45.7% 10.9% 13.0% 51.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.294 0.301 25.3% 6.6% 18.7% 50.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.380 0.358 29.9% 5.0% 10.0% 58.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Gerrit Cole
gerrit-cole-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,100 Salary: $12,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 5 of 24 Salary Rank: 3 of 24 Salary Rank: of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 21 4.24 3.88 19.4% 7.1% 45.6% 30.1% 21.3%
2017 23 4.09 4.00 21.2% 5.9% 46.5% 31.0% 24.4%
L30 5 3.88 2.53 23.3% 6.0% 47.8% 20.7% 30.4%

Cole still doesn’t have that elite strikeout rate that we all expect from him, but he is having a strong second half of the season. In his last five starts, he has a 3.88 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. He induces a lot of ground balls and he limits hard contact against him. He doesn’t fare well against left-handed hitters, but that’s not a big concern against the Tigers, who will likely have seven righties in their lineup today.

Quick Breakdown: Cole is expensive, but he’s viable in all formats in the early only slate.

Drew VerHagen
drew-verhagen-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 23 of 24 Salary Rank: 24 of 24 Salary Rank: of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 4.49 7.11 11.1% 7.8% 59.7% 29.2% 19.4%
2017 1 5.14 5.00 11.1% 5.6% 46.7% 50.0% 6.7%
L30 1 5.14 5.00 11.1% 5.6% 46.7% 50.0% 6.7%

VerHagen is making his second career major league start today against the Pirates. In 19 Triple-A starts earlier this season, he posted a 4.29 FIP with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He hasn’t shown good command in the minors and that’s not likely to change at the major league level. The Pirates aren’t what we would consider a potent offense, but they strikeout at a low rate and are sizable favorites in this game.

Quick Breakdown: There is more downside than upside with VerHagen, who is only making his second major league start.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have the highest implied total in the early slate and they obviously draw the best matchup. The other three teams have to face pitchers with a 23%+ strikeout rate, while Pittsburgh is facing a rookie that struggled in the minors this season. We don’t have a ton of information to go on with Drew VerHagen, but he’s a low strikeout pitcher with below-average command. The two offenses to load up on in the early are the Pirates and the Reds.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.331 0.310 0.101 26.8% 5.0% 19.0% 51.5% OF $3,300 OF $4,700 N/A N/A
2 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.317 0.335 0.111 30.4% 8.7% 11.6% 48.1% OF $2,700 2B/OF $3,800 N/A N/A
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.350 0.351 0.170 33.7% 10.9% 17.7% 41.9% OF $4,100 OF $5,500 N/A N/A
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.343 0.335 0.219 33.9% 10.2% 20.2% 50.9% 1B $2,700 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.331 0.325 0.145 32.2% 5.0% 15.8% 36.1% 2B $3,000 2B/3B $4,400 N/A N/A
6 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.318 0.320 0.181 25.9% 7.7% 10.9% 40.3% OF $2,800 OF $2,600 N/A N/A
7 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.320 0.311 0.149 27.5% 10.2% 15.6% 45.7% SS $2,300 SS $3,600 N/A N/A
8 John Jaso LEFT 0.303 0.334 0.178 35.3% 10.7% 22.0% 30.1% 1B $2,200 1B/OF $2,300 N/A N/A
9 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.330 0.334 0.130 31.5% 10.0% 20.0% 49.3% C $2,700 C $3,500 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell, Josh Harrison

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers are facing a pitcher that is in his best form of the season. They are also facing a pitcher that is much better against righties (.301 xwOBA with a 51% ground ball rate) than he is against lefties (.325 xwOBA with a 41% ground ball rate). The only two lefties projected to be in the Tigers’ lineup today are Jim Adduci and Victor Martinez, neither of which are particularly appealing as DFS targets. As mentioned earlier, I’m looking to load up on the Pirates and Reds in the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.307 0.316 0.120 34.0% 10.3% 12.2% 33.2% 2B $3,100 2B $3,600 N/A N/A
2 Jim Adduci LEFT 0.330 0.346 0.188 52.2% 11.1% 25.0% 56.5% OF $2,400 OF $2,500 N/A N/A
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.357 0.352 0.232 43.0% 11.8% 28.7% 37.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,700 N/A N/A
4 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.312 0.387 0.177 45.6% 10.2% 20.4% 41.9% 1B $3,300 1B $3,600 N/A N/A
5 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.294 0.336 0.145 46.1% 8.2% 26.0% 39.9% 3B $2,700 3B $3,500 N/A N/A
6 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.342 0.317 0.127 34.4% 8.2% 22.4% 48.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.296 0.363 0.129 42.4% 8.2% 14.0% 39.9% C $2,300 1B $2,300 N/A N/A
8 James McCann RIGHT 0.265 0.302 0.120 39.8% 7.2% 25.7% 38.1% C $2,200 C $2,600 N/A N/A
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.284 0.251 0.105 30.8% 4.4% 14.6% 53.0% SS $2,800 SS $2,900 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jim Adduci, Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Miami Washington
miamimlb Dan Straily washingtonmlb Tanner Roark
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-165 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.292 0.309 30.1% 10.7% 21.3% 34.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.308 0.332 30.0% 10.8% 18.0% 41.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 0.315 35.5% 6.0% 21.0% 31.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.283 0.297 22.3% 6.5% 22.0% 54.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dan Straily
dan-straily-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 14 of 24 Salary Rank: 15 of 24 Salary Rank: 12 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 4.67 3.76 20.5% 9.2% 32.0% 32.2% 14.8%
2017 23 4.31 3.77 22.1% 6.8% 33.8% 34.1% 20.3%
L30 5 5.06 5.61 17.4% 5.8% 22.5% 37.6% 18.3%

Straily comes into tonight’s start in some of his worst form of the season. In his last five starts, he has a 5.06 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17%. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that relies on strikeouts and lazy fly balls to succeed. Over the last month, he hasn’t been getting either of those. He can be avoided tonight against the Nationals, who are ranked second in team wOBA and eighth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Straily is a fly-ball pitcher that is facing an offense with plenty of firepower. I’m not a fan.

Tanner Roark
tanner-roark-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 10 of 24 Salary Rank: 13 of 24 Salary Rank: 10 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.32 2.83 20.1% 8.5% 48.7% 24.3% 23.1%
2017 21 4.52 4.82 19.9% 8.7% 47.2% 28.7% 15.1%
L30 4 3.99 3.38 24.8% 9.1% 50.6% 25.0% 16.3%

Roark reminds me a lot of Jordan Zimmermann. He has pitched fairly well in his time with the Nationals, but he has benefitted greatly from a pitcher-friendly ballpark and a great offense behind him. From a talent standpoint, there are a handful of pitchers with more of it in this slate. The Marlins are one of those neutral matchups where we can’t really give a bump to the opposing pitcher. On the season, they are ranked 11th in team wOBA and 12th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Roark is favored and pitching at home, but he doesn’t have the upside that I look for in my pitcher selections.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins have four batters in their projected lineup with a .337+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching and four with an xwOBA under .295. Before we even look at Tanner Roark splits, we can eliminate half of the Marlins’ offense. This is a big enough slate that I won’t be forcing any of the Marlins into my lineups, but at the same time, I don’t have a ton of interest in Roark. We can afford to be picky in ten game slates and I’ll likely end up watching this one from the sidelines.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.319 0.266 0.076 20.2% 5.2% 13.7% 56.0% 2B $3,500 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.399 0.392 0.319 38.8% 10.3% 25.3% 41.4% OF $4,800 OF $5,600 RF $10,800
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.346 0.361 0.154 38.8% 12.3% 19.1% 55.7% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.396 0.375 0.283 44.7% 7.9% 23.0% 44.7% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 LF $8,000
5 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.342 0.337 0.160 31.5% 6.0% 16.3% 50.9% C $2,700 C $3,500 C $6,900
6 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.287 0.291 0.158 33.7% 5.5% 18.5% 35.3% 3B $3,300 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
7 Tomas Telis SWITCH 0.252 0.292 0.167 53.3% 0.0% 16.7% 40.0% 1B $2,200 1B $2,500 C $4,800
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.302 0.292 0.034 17.5% 9.2% 9.2% 50.0% SS $2,100 SS $2,200 2B $4,200
9 Dan Straily RIGHT 0.051 0.094 0.000 17.7% 2.7% 51.4% 90.9% P $7,400 P $6,600 P $13,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals tallied ten runs in last night’s win against the Marlins and will look to keep firing tonight. They draw an exploitable matchup against Dan Straily, who is a fly-ball pitcher with bad form in his last five starts. Straily has fairly neutral splits, but his hard contact rate allowed to righties (36%) is considerably higher than that to lefties (31%). Is that going to keep me off of Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy? Of course not, but I point it out because it makes the right-handed batters more intriguing as a part of a complete stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.310 0.309 0.242 33.3% 9.1% 24.0% 40.1% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 RF $7,600
2 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.266 0.278 0.078 21.2% 8.1% 20.6% 56.5% SS $3,200 2B/SS $3,500 2B $6,800
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.459 0.436 0.348 36.4% 16.8% 17.1% 36.4% OF $4,900 OF $5,500 RF $10,800
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.381 0.374 0.252 40.5% 6.5% 21.4% 47.7% 1B $3,200 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.403 0.375 0.261 35.4% 8.0% 8.6% 32.5% 2B $3,500 2B $5,100 2B $9,900
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.392 0.368 0.238 33.6% 14.3% 14.3% 36.5% 3B $3,400 3B $4,600 3B $8,800
7 Adam Lind LEFT 0.369 0.375 0.234 40.5% 7.6% 15.3% 45.0% OF $2,300 1B/OF $3,100 1B $6,000
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.278 0.294 0.123 31.9% 6.4% 20.1% 39.6% C $3,000 C $3,300 C $6,600
9 Tanner Roark RIGHT 0.138 0.147 0.031 14.8% 2.6% 26.3% 76.2% P $7,900 P $7,500 P $14,800

Elite Plays – Brian Goodwin, Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Adrian Sanchez, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon, Adam Lind

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Mets at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

NY Mets Philadelphia
nymetsmlb Jacob deGrom philadelphiamlb Vince Velasquez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-140 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.288 0.303 32.2% 8.0% 23.2% 43.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.347 0.329 34.3% 10.8% 24.8% 39.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.299 0.288 33.3% 5.8% 29.1% 47.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.326 0.318 34.9% 7.4% 26.2% 36.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jacob deGrom
jacob-degrom-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,600 Salary: $12,700 Salary: $24,600
Salary Rank: 1 of 24 Salary Rank: 1 of 24 Salary Rank: 1 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.66 3.04 23.7% 6.0% 45.6% 31.3% 19.0%
2017 22 3.52 3.36 28.8% 7.8% 45.0% 34.4% 19.6%
L30 5 3.24 2.41 30.3% 6.1% 41.0% 30.1% 15.7%

DeGrom has basically been in good form the entire season. That hasn’t changed in his last five starts where he has a 3.24 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. The walks are low, he limits hard contact, and he is tough on both left and right-handed hitters. Tonight he draws a terrific matchup against the Phillies, who are ranked 23rd in team wOBA and 25th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Even on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark, deGrom is one of the top two pitching options in the slate.

Quick Breakdown: DeGrom is an elite play in both cash games and tournaments.

Vince Velasquez
vincent-velasquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 19 of 24 Salary Rank: 12 of 24 Salary Rank: 8 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.62 4.12 27.6% 8.2% 34.8% 32.6% 18.4%
2017 14 4.67 4.82 21.8% 10.7% 43.1% 38.1% 15.1%
L30 4 5.73 3.00 15.9% 13.6% 47.5% 37.7% 19.7%

Velasquez has taken a step back this season. His strikeout rate has dipped, his SIERA is up, and he has shown little to no consistency. A pitcher with a high walk rate and a high hard contact rate is always hard to trust, especially in a home run-friendly ballpark. It doesn’t help that he is facing a Mets’ offense that is ranked 15th in team wOBA and fourth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Velasquez in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Citizens Bank Park and they draw a decent matchup against Vince Velasquez. In addition to the high walk rate, Velasquez has allowed a .318+ xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. The Mets have plenty of upside in tonight’s game and they are an offense that should get overlooked in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.414 0.384 0.274 40.8% 13.7% 22.9% 36.2% OF $4,300 OF $4,700 LF $9,200
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.310 0.347 0.156 37.0% 10.3% 15.2% 43.7% 3B $2,800 2B/SS $3,400 SS $6,800
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.336 0.334 0.184 41.8% 5.9% 15.5% 37.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,100 LF $8,100
4 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.342 0.336 0.241 33.3% 15.3% 22.4% 31.1% OF $2,600 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
5 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.344 0.353 0.209 33.6% 8.8% 14.1% 36.8% 2B $2,600 2B $2,700 2B $5,400
6 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.265 0.283 0.140 27.4% 6.9% 12.8% 37.3% SS $2,400 3B/SS $2,900 SS $5,700
7 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.256 0.280 0.149 34.0% 4.5% 15.7% 40.4% C $2,300 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.270 0.107 0.222 10.0% 0.0% 44.4% 70.0% SS $2,300 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
9 Jacob deGrom RIGHT 0.288 0.254 0.093 33.3% 2.2% 32.6% 39.3% P $10,600 P $12,700 P $24,600

Elite Plays – Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes

Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies draw the worst matchup in the entire slate. They are already one of the worst offenses in baseball to begin with. Anything can happen in baseball, but there is no reason for the Phillies to be on your radar tonight. Since the start of last season, Jacob deGrom has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.352 0.309 0.117 20.6% 10.4% 19.1% 50.6% 2B $2,600 2B $3,400 2B $6,800
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.319 0.297 0.170 29.4% 7.8% 18.1% 37.6% SS $2,500 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
3 Daniel Nava SWITCH 0.408 0.382 0.150 35.3% 11.5% 13.7% 40.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 LF $6,400
4 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.285 0.303 0.160 27.3% 6.6% 16.0% 46.5% 3B $2,600 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
5 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.310 0.293 0.159 29.0% 6.0% 22.9% 43.6% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,400
6 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.314 0.310 0.165 38.5% 6.2% 22.1% 45.0% 1B $2,500 1B $2,800 1B $5,400
7 Nick Williams LEFT 0.354 0.341 0.217 43.5% 5.0% 24.8% 50.7% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 LF $6,600
8 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.438 0.280 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 66.7% C $2,700 C $5,400
9 Vince Velasquez RIGHT 0.234 0.132 0.000 8.3% 0.0% 20.0% 63.6% P $6,500 P $7,700 P $15,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

NY Yankees Toronto
nyyankeesmlb Sonny Gray torontomlb Marco Estrada
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-126 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.296 0.306 27.3% 6.9% 20.6% 54.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.287 0.278 26.6% 8.9% 23.9% 34.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.336 0.324 34.9% 8.9% 20.5% 55.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.322 0.318 32.8% 9.5% 22.8% 30.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sonny Gray
sonny-gray-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $10,900 Salary: $21,200
Salary Rank: 6 of 24 Salary Rank: 6 of 24 Salary Rank: 5 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 22 4.32 5.69 18.2% 8.1% 53.9% 33.6% 16.1%
2017 17 3.74 3.41 23.4% 7.7% 56.3% 28.0% 17.4%
L30 4 3.48 1.48 25.2% 7.8% 59.4% 21.7% 21.7%

Gray took a loss in his Yankees’ debut, but he struck out six batters and only gave up two earned runs in six innings. With a move to the American League East, we should expect his numbers to tail off a bit, but an above-average strikeout rate (23%) with an elite ground ball rate (56%) is going to work anywhere. After the Masahiro Tanaka chalk fire last night, people will be hesitant to roster another Yankees’ pitcher. Gray does have reverse-splits, but I don’t mind a right-handed heavy matchup, especially for a righty that’s a ground ball pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: Gray is an excellent tournament that could potentially have sub-10% ownership.

Marco Estrada
marco-estrada-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 16 of 24 Salary Rank: 16 of 24 Salary Rank: 13 of 24
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.35 3.48 22.8% 9.0% 33.5% 31.3% 21.1%
2017 23 4.46 5.12 24.0% 9.5% 30.9% 27.8% 20.5%
L30 5 5.44 4.94 20.3% 11.9% 26.6% 20.0% 28.8%

Estrada has looked much better in his last two starts. He has three combined walks with 12 combined strikeouts in 14 innings of work. That’s a massive improvement over his previous five game stretch, where his walk rate was above 20%. He draws the ultimate boom or bust matchup tonight against the Yankees at home. There is always risk taking a fly-ball pitcher against New York, but the strikeout potential is there if he can keep it in the park. That’s a big if though, especially considering the fact that the current Yankees’ roster has 13 home runs against him in 187 plate appearances.

Quick Breakdown: If I made ten lineups tonight on a multi-pitcher site, I’d potentially throw Estrada into one of them.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Marco Estrada has an extreme fly-ball rate. This leads to a lot of fly balls and a lot of home runs. That’s typically not the best recipe for a stack, because we can try to chase the opposing offenses upside through one-offs and two-man stacks. The good news for Yankee fan stacks is that Estrada walks a bunch of batters and has been prone to the big inning this season. My approach will likely be to use mini-stacks here, but I won’t talk you off of a full stack. One of the best BvP plays of the day is Gary Sanchez, who is 4-for-11 with four home runs against Estrada in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.364 0.345 0.213 34.8% 12.1% 18.3% 41.1% OF $3,600 OF $4,000 LF $7,800
2 Clint Frazier RIGHT 0.306 0.317 0.232 43.3% 5.7% 26.1% 43.3% OF $2,700 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.372 0.283 0.235 26.2% 3.7% 13.8% 40.3% SS $3,100 SS $4,200 SS $8,000
4 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.432 0.428 0.327 45.7% 15.2% 32.0% 37.2% OF $4,600 OF $5,300 RF $10,400
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.352 0.355 0.216 36.5% 7.4% 24.4% 44.1% C $3,200 C $4,300 C $8,400
6 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.354 0.331 0.142 32.3% 12.2% 24.3% 44.4% 1B $2,900 1B/3B $3,300 3B $6,600
7 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.311 0.338 0.176 28.7% 13.2% 22.9% 39.1% 3B $3,400 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
8 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.333 0.318 0.138 24.4% 9.8% 14.5% 48.0% OF $3,200 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.281 0.244 0.092 18.6% 2.1% 14.0% 51.0% 2B $2,300 2B/SS $2,500 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Clint Frazier, Didi Gregorius, Chase Headley, Todd Frazier

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto

The Blue Jays haven’t had much success against Sonny Gray in the past, but the same was true in yesterday’s matchup against Masahiro Tanaka. Gray may have reverse-splits, but he also has an elite ground ball rate and an above-average strikeout rate. That combination takes a lot of the hitter-friendliness out of this ballpark. Jose Bautista is still cheap on DraftKings, Josh Donaldson has been swinging a hot bat, and Justin Smoak has a ton of power against right-handed pitching, but all three are secondary plays tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.323 0.333 0.186 34.7% 12.6% 22.3% 33.9% OF $3,700 OF $3,500 RF $6,800
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.346 0.333 0.171 28.4% 14.3% 22.2% 52.9% C $3,200 C $3,400 C $6,600
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.362 0.363 0.223 34.1% 15.3% 25.4% 42.0% 3B $3,900 3B $4,100 3B $8,100
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.378 0.394 0.294 40.6% 10.4% 22.6% 32.6% 1B $4,000 1B $4,000 1B $7,800
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.305 0.366 0.197 36.3% 8.0% 21.3% 46.6% 1B $3,200 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
6 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.338 0.319 0.169 32.5% 8.5% 19.5% 42.7% OF $3,500 OF $3,400 1B $6,600
7 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.267 0.279 0.132 27.9% 7.4% 16.9% 44.9% SS $2,300 2B/SS $2,800 2B $5,400
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.273 0.300 0.127 26.1% 5.3% 15.4% 46.6% OF $2,600 OF $2,900 CF $5,700
9 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.260 0.260 0.103 16.8% 2.3% 15.9% 47.6% 2B $2,400 2B/3B $2,200 2B $4,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak

Stackability – ORANGE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious