MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 13th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-09-13 16:59:27

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Arizona at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Arizona								Colorado
			Clay Buchholz							Kyle Freeland
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			COL-119							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.242	0.270	30.7%	0.91	20.1%	44.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.229	0.263	28.7%	0.44	28.1%	44.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.294	0.356	45.9%	0.73	21.1%	41.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.309	0.326	32.9%	0.93	18.8%	48.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Clay Buchholz
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,000	Salary:			$8,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			5 of 16	Salary Rank:			4 of 16	Salary Rank:
	2017	2	5.82	12.27	12.5%	7.5%	28.1%	28.1%	18.8%	90.6	6.9%
	2018	16	4.08	2.01	20.6%	5.6%	42.6%	38.5%	15.0%	90.2	9.7%
	L14	3	4.65	0.98	17.6%	8.1%	45.3%	41.5%	9.4%	90.2	10.4%

We have nine games on the schedule today — two early, one double-header, and five late. Since the first Marlins/Mets game isn’t really included in the slates, we will focus our attention on the other eight games. Buchholz has had a solid season overall, but a 2.01 ERA shouldn’t be sustainable with his numbers. In 16 starts, he has a 4.08 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a 39% hard contact rate. He’s been overpriced recently and he certainly feels too expensive for a matchup against the Rockies in Coors Field.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Buchholz in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Kyle Freeland
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,000	Salary:			$8,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			2 of 16	Salary Rank:			3 of 16	Salary Rank:
	2017	28	4.93	4.10	15.6%	9.2%	53.9%	32.0%	24.3%	92.0	7.5%
	2018	29	4.32	2.91	20.8%	8.6%	47.9%	32.0%	20.3%	91.5	8.7%
	L14	3	4.06	2.50	23.0%	8.1%	43.1%	37.3%	17.7%	92.4	8.5%

Freeland would be an easy fade in a large slate, but there are only two games on the early schedule. With two iffy pitchers in the other game, we shouldn’t be so quick to cross Freeland off our list. Much like Buchholz, his low ERA is partly thanks to some good fortune. In his 29 starts, he has a 4.32 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. He has an above-average ground ball rate and he induces a lot of soft contact. I don’t love the idea of playing Freeland in this ballpark and matchup, but the Diamondbacks’ projected lineup does have a 23% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Freeland is viable thanks to a lack of options in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks are playing in Coors Field, so we can obviously make a case for their entire offense. With that said, Kyle Freeland is far from a perfect matchup. He has a decent strikeout rate, a high ground ball rate, and he induces a lot of soft contact. He has been incredibly tough on lefties, but has allowed a .326 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to righties. A.J. Pollock, Eduardo Escobar, Paul Goldschmidt, and Steve Souza are all elite plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.392	0.178	64.0%	11.0%	28.0%	42.0%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
2	A.J. Pollock	RIGHT	0.347	0.235	48.4%	6.8%	20.5%	42.1%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.461	0.303	51.7%	16.8%	19.5%	37.9%	1B	$4,800	1B	$5,700	N/A	N/A
4	David Peralta	LEFT	0.307	0.161	39.5%	5.4%	24.4%	58.8%	OF	$4,400	OF	$4,900	N/A	N/A
5	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.332	0.150	37.4%	10.2%	17.7%	42.0%	3B	$3,500	3B/SS	$4,400	N/A	N/A
6	Nick Ahmed	RIGHT	0.329	0.239	42.2%	6.0%	16.9%	39.8%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,500	N/A	N/A
7	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.368	0.234	42.9%	9.6%	11.2%	53.7%	2B	$3,200	2B/SS	$4,200	N/A	N/A
8	Jeff Mathis	RIGHT	0.290	0.107	46.2%	13.6%	27.3%	43.6%	C	$3,000	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A
9	Clay Buchholz	RIGHT	0.116	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	44.4%	75.0%	P	$8,000	P	$8,300	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.327	0.179	41.4%	8.8%	23.3%	48.3%

Elite Plays – A.J. Pollock, Eduardo Escobar, Paul Goldschmidt, Steve Souza

Secondary Plays – Daniel Descalso, Nick Ahmed

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado

The Rockies got an exciting walk-off home run from DJ LeMahieu yesterday. While it wasn’t the BvP that paid off, DJ still ended up being a great play in DFS. Today they square off against Clay Buchholz, who has one of the lowest ERAs of any pitcher in baseball. His advanced statistics aren’t quite as pretty. On the season, he has allowed a .356 xwOBA and a 46% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. This obviously bodes well for a right-handed heavy Rockies’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.356	0.228	36.3%	9.9%	20.3%	42.4%	OF	$4,300	OF	$5,400	N/A	N/A
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.336	0.134	34.0%	7.5%	15.7%	51.7%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.345	0.188	39.9%	10.2%	19.4%	41.5%	3B	$4,400	3B	$5,200	N/A	N/A
4	David Dahl	LEFT	0.359	0.268	40.2%	8.7%	23.9%	41.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$5,100	N/A	N/A
5	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.344	0.215	42.8%	6.6%	26.7%	36.3%	SS	$4,200	SS	$5,300	N/A	N/A
6	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.316	0.203	38.8%	8.9%	23.4%	44.3%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
7	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.300	0.170	33.2%	8.9%	26.0%	62.1%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
8	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.331	0.201	37.7%	11.3%	25.8%	40.7%	C	$3,200	C	$3,600	N/A	N/A
9	Kyle Freeland	LEFT	0.111	0.032	20.0%	6.1%	63.6%	66.7%	P	$9,000	P	$8,500	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.311	0.182	35.9%	8.7%	27.2%	47.4%

Elite Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Carlos Gonzalez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%
Chicago Cubs								Washington
			Mike Montgomery						Joe Ross
			LEFT						RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-115						9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.295	0.338	33.0%	0.56	19.4%	58.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.312	0.335	32.7%	0.59	14.0%	51.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Mike Montgomery
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,900	Salary:			$6,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			15 of 16	Salary Rank:			10 of 16	Salary Rank:
	2017	14	4.46	3.38	18.5%	10.2%	57.8%	30.2%	20.7%	92.2	8.4%
	2018	15	4.50	3.85	15.6%	7.8%	53.1%	32.8%	21.6%	91.6	9.4%
	L14	2	3.58	6.48	27.5%	10.0%	56.5%	56.5%	8.7%	91.6	14.6%

Picking a pitcher in this slate is like picking a food to eat at a family reunion where everyone brings their own dish and you don’t know who made what. You have no idea if you are going to pick the right one, but you have no choice because you are starving. Here’s to hoping we pick grandma’s dish and not crazy Uncle Freddy’s dish. Montgomery is a low strikeout pitcher with a high ground ball rate. He draws a difficult matchup against the Nationals, whose projected lineup boasts a .386 xwOBA and a 13% walk rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Montgomery feels a bit too expensive given his matchup and lack of upside.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Joe Ross
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,700	Salary:			$5,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			11 of 16	Salary Rank:			13 of 16	Salary Rank:
	2017	13	4.28	5.01	21.1%	6.2%	37.5%	36.9%	19.3%	91.4	10.1%

This will technically be Ross’s first start of the season, although he pitched a couple of innings in a game last week, but it was rained out and the statistics were washed away as well. He has looked good in his rehab starts and he was pitching well before the rain came in that outing last week. The Cubs have plenty of firepower at the top of their lineup, but the bottom is attackable. Overall, their projected lineup has an average strikeout rate of 25% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: It sounds scary, but give me Ross as my SP2 to pair with Freeland.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs draw a mediocre matchup against Joe Ross. While he has yet to make a start this season, he has plenty of major league experience. In his career, he has held right-handed hitters to a .268 wOBA, while allowing a .364 wOBA to lefties. With four projected righties in this lineup, it makes Ross a little more appealing. With that said, Daniel Murphy and Anthony Rizzo are both strong options, as they both boast a .390+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.391	0.197	29.6%	5.8%	8.7%	34.1%	2B	$3,900	1B/2B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.355	0.137	29.0%	11.2%	20.2%	37.5%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.409	0.226	36.0%	12.4%	9.5%	37.5%	1B	$4,000	1B	$5,100	N/A	N/A
4	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.362	0.173	36.1%	12.3%	13.2%	45.2%	OF	$3,200	2B/OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
5	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.329	0.271	36.2%	3.2%	28.0%	46.2%	SS	$3,900	2B/SS	$5,000	N/A	N/A
6	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.353	0.199	42.5%	16.4%	36.0%	37.7%	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
7	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.294	0.132	28.4%	7.8%	20.5%	54.1%	C	$2,800	C	$3,700	N/A	N/A
8	Mike Montgomery	LEFT	0.167	0.000	12.5%	4.2%	62.5%	57.1%	P	$5,900	P	$6,800	N/A	N/A
9	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.288	0.081	30.4%	8.3%	22.6%	42.3%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,200	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.328	0.157	31.2%	9.1%	24.6%	43.5%

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy (GPP), Anthony Rizzo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy (Cash), Anthony Rizzo (Cash), Ben Zobrist

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington

The Nationals draw an exploitable matchup against Mike Montgomery. While he does have a high ground ball rate, that’s accompanied by a low strikeout rate and a .335+ xwOBA allowed to batters from both sides of the plate. Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, and Juan Soto all boast a .350+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.373	0.138	36.0%	11.6%	12.2%	39.8%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,600	N/A	N/A
2	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.467	0.252	46.5%	10.7%	18.2%	23.3%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.398	0.228	40.4%	18.0%	24.0%	44.2%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.475	0.328	49.0%	16.2%	14.9%	39.2%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,500	N/A	N/A
5	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.351	0.227	33.9%	11.1%	23.2%	64.1%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,200	N/A	N/A
6	Victor Robles	RIGHT	0.230	0.000	16.7%	14.3%	0.0%	60.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
7	Adrian Sanchez	RIGHT	0.408	0.211	37.5%	0.0%	15.8%	50.0%	SS	$2,100	2B/3B	$2,800	N/A	N/A
8	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.387	0.081	40.0%	19.6%	26.1%	28.0%	C	$2,200	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	Joe Ross	RIGHT							P	$6,700	P	$5,400	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.386	0.183	37.5%	12.7%	16.8%	43.6%

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Adrian Sanchez

Stackability -%{color:#EAEA32}*YELLOW*%

Oakland at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Oakland								Baltimore
			Brett Anderson							Dylan Bundy
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			OAK-165							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.325	0.367	34.6%	0.57	11.9%	61.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.404	0.396	36.4%	2.14	18.1%	30.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.326	0.342	35.5%	1.09	13.1%	53.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.323	0.296	35.9%	2.29	30.4%	36.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Brett Anderson
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,300	Salary:			$6,600	Salary:		$12,600
	Salary Rank:			6 of 16	Salary Rank:			8 of 16	Salary Rank:		6 of 16
	2017	13	4.84	6.34	15.1%	8.4%	49.2%	36.5%	21.9%	90.5	8.8%
	2018	13	4.37	4.02	12.8%	4.5%	55.6%	35.3%	16.1%	90.3	7.1%
	L14	1	4.41	16.88	7.1%	0.0%	53.8%	30.8%	15.4%	89.7	6.1%

Before we get into the main slate, I wanted to remind everyone to check out RotoAcademy. It is the best place in the industry to improve your DFS skills, which will in turn help you improve your ROI. We have plenty of great content for NFL and MLB and will be adding some new NBA courses over the course of the next month.

We kick tonight’s six-game slate off with the A’s and the Orioles. Oakland got off to an amazing start yesterday, but didn’t score after the third inning. Anderson will be on the mound tonight. While a matchup against the Orioles is tempting (their projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .281 with a strikeout rate of 28% against left-handed pitching), his numbers are far from pretty. In 13 starts this season, he owns a 4.37 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13%. Just because a low-strikeout pitcher is facing a high-strikeout offense, it doesn’t mean that pitcher will turn into Chris Sale all of a sudden. Many times it works the other way — the offense is able to put the ball in play.

Quick Breakdown: I’ll pass on Anderson and take a few shares of the Orioles’ offense.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Dylan Bundy
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,500	Salary:			$6,300	Salary:		$12,900
	Salary Rank:			10 of 16	Salary Rank:			9 of 16	Salary Rank:		5 of 16
	2017	28	4.45	4.24	21.8%	7.3%	32.8%	36.5%	17.6%	92.2	11.4%
	2018	27	4.05	5.58	24.0%	7.5%	33.0%	36.2%	14.6%	91.6	12.3%
	L14	3	4.34	8.16	26.1%	11.6%	28.6%	48.8%	7.0%	91.8	9.5%

Bundy has been all over the map this season. While he has shown strikeout upside at times, it’s been more risk than reward over the last couple of months. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, which is not ideal in a matchup against the A’s. Oakland’s projected lineup boasts an average xwOBA of .366 with a hard contact rate of 43% against right-handed pitching. The good news for Bundy is that he may end up facing six or seven righties tonight. The bad news is that his home run problems have come against batters from both sides of the plate.

Quick Breakdown: Bundy is a bit too risky for my liking, even in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s see a significant ballpark boost playing in Baltimore, they are facing a pitcher that has given up a ton of home runs, and they are facing a tired bullpen. Once again, this sets up as a great spot to stack the A’s. On the season, Dylan Bundy has allowed a HR/9 over 2.00 to both lefties and righties. In terms of his xwOBA, he has allowed a .396 to lefties. Jed Lowrie and Matt Olson are both elite plays at their respective positions, while the right-handed hitters are best suited as part of a full A’s stack in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ramon Laureano	RIGHT	0.410	0.327	62.2%	4.9%	31.1%	45.9%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,600
2	Matt Chapman	RIGHT	0.382	0.274	44.3%	10.4%	22.9%	36.6%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,700	3B	$8,900
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.350	0.224	37.6%	12.1%	19.2%	34.4%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,600	2B	$9,100
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.407	0.313	45.3%	7.5%	25.8%	36.3%	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,100	LF	$9,700
5	Matt Olson	LEFT	0.385	0.244	49.4%	10.5%	25.6%	32.8%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,500	IF/OF	$9,000
6	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.367	0.221	44.3%	5.0%	18.7%	44.3%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,900	RF	$8,900
7	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.311	0.101	29.7%	7.8%	18.0%	42.4%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,100
8	Chad Pinder	RIGHT	0.371	0.158	35.9%	7.1%	24.4%	43.0%	OF	$2,400	2B/OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,900
9	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.310	0.069	36.7%	5.4%	13.2%	42.2%	C	$2,300	C	$2,900	C	$5,700
	Team Averages		0.366	0.215	42.8%	7.9%	22.1%	39.8%

Elite Plays – Jed Lowrie, Matt Olson, Ramon Laureano (GPP), Matt Chapman (GPP), Khris Davis (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Ramon Laureano (Cash), Matt Chapman (Cash), Khris Davis (Cash), Stephen Piscotty

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles would be an incredible stack tonight, but they are priced up on DraftKings for no apparent reason. It’s similar to how the Rays have been at home recently. Baltimore is still cheap on FanDuel if you want to stack them over there. They draw an exploitable matchup against Brett Anderson, who has allowed a .367 xwOBA to lefties and a .342 xwOBA to righties this season. The two batters on my radar that have high fly-ball rates against southpaws are Joey Rickard and Adam Jones. I also have interest in Jonathan Villar, as he boasts an ISO of .187 against lefties this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cedric Mullins	LEFT	0.227	0.000	16.7%	14.8%	40.7%	40.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,200
2	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.280	0.227	29.6%	7.0%	31.0%	29.5%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,500
3	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.339	0.187	42.2%	5.1%	27.6%	52.4%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,000
4	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.288	0.125	23.4%	7.2%	24.7%	65.8%	OF	$2,800	1B/OF	$3,600	IF/OF	$7,500
5	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.334	0.114	32.1%	2.6%	8.4%	40.0%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,300
6	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.302	0.174	31.2%	9.5%	26.3%	46.7%	SS	$2,500	3B/SS	$3,900	SS	$7,300
7	Renato Nunez	RIGHT	0.276	0.100	22.7%	7.5%	25.4%	34.1%	3B	$2,300	3B	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,700
8	Breyvic Valera	SWITCH	0.221	0.000	50.0%	0.0%	33.3%	60.0%	2B	$2,000	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,900
9	Austin Wynns	RIGHT	0.262	0.000	16.0%	0.0%	30.6%	48.0%	C	$2,300	C	$3,100	C	$5,900
	Team Averages		0.281	0.103	29.3%	6.0%	27.6%	46.3%

Elite Plays – Joey Rickard, Jonathan Villar

Secondary Plays – Trey Mancini, Adam Jones

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Toronto								Boston
			Sam Gaviglio							Eduardo Rodriguez
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-260							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.363	0.377	39.2%	1.77	15.5%	41.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.294	0.295	31.4%	1.19	36.8%	38.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.331	0.310	30.2%	1.53	25.1%	52.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.295	0.308	25.9%	1.09	23.5%	39.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Sam Gaviglio
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,300	Salary:			$4,500	Salary:		$9,100
	Salary Rank:			11 of 16	Salary Rank:			15 of 16	Salary Rank:		11 of 16
	2017	13	4.96	4.36	15.7%	8.3%	49.4%	31.5%	15.7%	88.6	7.1%
	2018	20	4.06	5.25	20.8%	6.7%	47.4%	34.6%	16.7%	88.0	9.2%
	L14	2	4.52	8.10	14.0%	4.7%	48.5%	34.3%	17.1%	87.5	8.5%

Once again, Aaron Sanchez dominated the Red Sox. At this point, we just have to believe in him in that matchup, regardless of what the numbers say. Gaviglio will be on the mound for the Blue Jays tonight. In 20 starts this season, he owns a 4.06 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a hard contact rate of 35%. Even though he’ll have the platoon advantage tonight, there is more risk than upside here.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gaviglio in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Eduardo Rodriguez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,600	Salary:			$9,100	Salary:		$18,000
	Salary Rank:			3 of 16	Salary Rank:			2 of 16	Salary Rank:		2 of 16
	2017	24	4.05	4.19	25.8%	8.6%	34.9%	30.8%	18.6%	93.3	11.7%
	2018	21	3.71	3.64	26.1%	7.5%	39.6%	26.8%	20.2%	93.4	11.1%
	L14	2	2.69	6.00	41.0%	10.3%	21.1%	47.4%	26.3%	94.3	10.7%

Rodriguez has quietly had a very nice season Boston. In 21 starts, he owns a 3.71 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26%. He’s improved his control, while maintaining a high soft contact rate. A matchup against the Blue Jays doesn’t look great on paper, but he’s had a ton of success against Toronto in the past. Their current roster has a .259 wOBA with 29 strikeouts in 123 plate appearances.

Quick Breakdown: E-Rod is firmly on my radar as an SP2 and you can even play him as an SP1 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but they draw a difficult matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez. While he gives up a lot of fly balls, he limits hard contact and has an above-average strikeout rate. On the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA. Once again, I don’t mind looking at Lourdes Gurriel or Devon Travis as cheap tournament plays, but will be avoiding the rest of the Blue Jays’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Lourdes Gurriel	RIGHT	0.378	0.098	28.6%	5.5%	16.4%	50.0%	2B	$3,000	2B/SS	$3,600	2B	$7,300
2	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.343	0.217	29.6%	2.1%	11.7%	44.4%	2B	$2,600	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,400
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.297	0.141	23.1%	10.2%	22.6%	47.9%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,500
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.360	0.129	35.7%	7.2%	21.0%	48.0%	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,600
5	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.344	0.157	34.2%	6.3%	27.8%	39.0%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,500
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.289	0.145	34.2%	2.9%	13.8%	37.2%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,400
7	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.344	0.270	32.2%	6.8%	32.0%	38.9%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,500	LF	$9,400
8	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.316	0.209	28.4%	6.1%	17.3%	40.5%	SS	$2,900	3B/SS	$3,400	SS	$6,400
9	Danny Jansen	RIGHT	0.474	0.111	16.7%	9.1%	27.3%	0.0%	C	$2,400	C	$3,400	C	$6,900
	Team Averages		0.349	0.164	29.2%	6.2%	21.1%	38.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Lourdes Gurriel (GPP), Devon Travis (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston

The Red Sox have an easy matchup to break down in terms of splits. Sam Gaviglio has held right-handed hitters to a .310 xwOBA with a 53% ground ball rate and a 25% strikeout rate. It’s been a completely different story against lefties, allowing a .377 xwOBA with a 41% ground ball rate and a 15% strikeout rate. The advantage in this matchup clearly goes to the lefties, which brings Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers into play. I don’t mind the right-handed bats of Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, but prefer using them as part of a full Red Sox stock.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.444	0.266	44.1%	11.6%	14.2%	34.0%	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,900	RF	$11,100
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.397	0.196	29.6%	12.6%	14.4%	38.1%	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,400	LF	$10,400
3	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.450	0.332	45.4%	11.1%	22.1%	44.4%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,600	RF	$10,100
4	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.386	0.264	38.5%	6.9%	16.7%	46.5%	SS	$3,800	SS	$5,000	SS	$10,000
5	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.409	0.220	36.5%	10.6%	20.9%	40.8%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,100
6	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.334	0.187	30.9%	8.3%	11.4%	37.4%	2B	$2,800	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,400
7	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.328	0.198	36.4%	8.1%	24.3%	44.2%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,900	3B	$7,200
8	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.280	0.087	27.9%	4.1%	15.1%	40.7%	C	$2,100	C	$3,000	C	$5,700
9	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.376	0.181	41.6%	9.8%	22.4%	39.7%	OF	$2,500	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,700
	Team Averages		0.378	0.215	36.8%	9.2%	17.9%	40.6%

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts (GPP), J.D. Martinez (GPP)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Dodgers at St. Louis – 7:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
LA Dodgers								St. Louis
			Clayton Kershaw							Austin Gomber
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAD-170							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.285	0.294	38.1%	1.52	25.6%	39.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.330	0.372	34.5%	0.47	19.8%	37.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.255	0.273	33.4%	0.75	24.3%	51.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.291	0.350	37.7%	0.43	19.3%	35.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Clayton Kershaw
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$11,500	Salary:			$11,900	Salary:		$23,300
	Salary Rank:			1 of 16	Salary Rank:			1 of 16	Salary Rank:		1 of 16
	2017	27	3.04	2.31	29.8%	4.4%	47.9%	27.4%	23.5%	92.7	14.1%
	2018	22	3.30	2.42	24.6%	3.9%	48.8%	34.5%	21.8%	90.9	11.4%
	L14	2	3.89	2.77	19.2%	1.9%	50.0%	30.0%	12.5%	90.6	10.1%

Kershaw is clearly the top pitching option on the board, even though he’s pitching on the road against a right-handed heavy Cardinals’ offense. In 22 starts this season, he owns a 3.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 4%. Those numbers aren’t quite as good as we’ve seen from him over the last few years, but they are the best we have to work with tonight. The key statistic for me is that Kershaw has held righties to a .273 xwOBA on a 52% ground ball rate this season. That should really come in handy tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Kershaw is an elite play in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Austin Gomber
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,100	Salary:			$8,100	Salary:		$16,100
	Salary Rank:			7 of 16	Salary Rank:			5 of 16	Salary Rank:		3 of 16

	2018	8	4.74	2.93	19.5%	10.3%	36.6%	36.7%	18.9%	92.5	9.5%
	L14	3	4.28	2.84	18.8%	5.0%	37.9%	32.8%	14.8%	91.2	8.6%

Gomber isn’t nearly as talented as his 2.93 ERA would lead you to believe, at least not at this stage of his career. In his eight starts, he has a 4.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a walk rate of 10%. He draws one of the worst matchups on the board, as he takes on a very talented Dodgers’ offense. Even though this game is being played in St. Louis, this is still a tough test for Gomber. The Dodgers’ projected lineup boasts a .364 xwOBA and a 13% walk rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gomber in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers aren’t playing in the most hitter-friendly ballpark, but they draw an exploitable matchup against Austin Gomber. On the season, he has allowed a .372 xwOBA to lefties and a .350 xwOBA to righties. This is no surprise to anyone, but the Dodgers’ lineup is loaded with firepower from both sides of the plate. Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Manny Machado, Matt Kemp, and David Freese all boast a .360+ xwOBA and a 39%+ hard contact rate against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Chris Taylor	RIGHT	0.363	0.210	40.0%	10.1%	21.8%	32.8%	OF	$3,300	OF/SS	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,200
2	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.428	0.228	50.0%	15.3%	17.1%	23.0%	3B	$4,200	3B	$4,900	3B	$8,700
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.424	0.245	39.0%	13.2%	8.8%	39.0%	SS	$4,300	SS	$4,700	3B	$9,000
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.419	0.229	47.5%	7.6%	23.4%	27.1%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,800
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.391	0.148	41.8%	8.5%	20.2%	56.0%	3B	$2,300	1B/3B	$3,900	3B	$7,800
6	Kike Hernandez	RIGHT	0.316	0.164	33.6%	9.4%	17.3%	41.0%	OF	$2,400	OF/SS	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,100
7	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.293	0.106	30.6%	14.3%	19.0%	43.2%	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,400
8	Austin Barnes	RIGHT	0.284	0.077	37.8%	13.0%	25.2%	51.4%	C	$2,000	C	$3,000	C	$5,700
9	Clayton Kershaw	LEFT	0.359	0.111	12.5%	23.1%	15.4%	42.9%	P	$11,500	P	$11,900	P	$23,300
	Team Averages		0.364	0.169	37.0%	12.7%	18.7%	39.6%

Elite Plays – Justin Turner, Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Chris Taylor, Matt Kemp, David Freese

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis

The Cardinals have the worst matchup of the slate. Even though we haven’t seen peak Clayton Kershaw this season, he is still elite. He has excellent control, a high ground ball rate, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA. I will be loading up on Kershaw tonight, so will naturally be fading the Cardinals’ offense in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.396	0.280	52.6%	15.3%	22.3%	38.7%	3B	$3,700	1B/3B	$4,400	3B	$8,200
2	Jose Martinez	RIGHT	0.373	0.118	37.4%	10.5%	16.7%	43.4%	OF	$3,400	1B/OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,700
3	Tyler O’Neill	RIGHT	0.341	0.250	61.5%	0.0%	45.8%	38.5%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,300
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.403	0.223	46.5%	6.1%	16.0%	45.5%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,400
5	Paul DeJong	RIGHT	0.315	0.179	36.7%	11.9%	25.7%	25.0%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,600
6	Yairo Munoz	RIGHT	0.315	0.219	34.0%	14.0%	24.4%	48.1%	2B	$2,400	2B/SS	$3,800	SS	$7,700
7	Harrison Bader	RIGHT	0.337	0.206	43.1%	8.0%	24.1%	34.7%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,400
8	Francisco Pena	RIGHT	0.195	0.097	33.3%	8.6%	40.0%	72.2%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,800
9	Austin Gomber	LEFT	0.076	0.000	33.3%	0.0%	25.0%	100.0%	P	$7,100	P	$8,100	P	$16,100
	Team Averages		0.306	0.175	42.0%	8.3%	26.7%	49.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 13th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Arizona at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Oakland at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Toronto at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

LA Dodgers at St. Louis – 7:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

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