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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, June 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-06-28 02:49:23

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Chicago Cubs at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Washington
cubsmlb Jake Arrieta washingtonmlb Max Scherzer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-157 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.301 0.326 30.5% 12.5% 24.4% 47.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.312 0.293 29.8% 9.0% 25.6% 34.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.263 0.269 25.2% 5.5% 24.0% 51.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.195 0.213 27.5% 3.0% 40.2% 35.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Arrieta
jake-arrieta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.94 3.10 23.9% 9.6% 52.6% 25.2% 22.9%
2017 15 3.84 4.36 24.7% 6.9% 44.0% 32.4% 20.8%

For most of the season, it has felt like Arrieta has been a bit pricey for what he brings to the table. His salary has been my main reason for fading him in most of his starts. It’s not an excuse tonight though, at least not on DraftKings ($7,500) and FantasyDraft ($14,800). Arrieta owns a 3.84 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%, but he draws one of the worst matchups in the entire slate. He is pitching on the road against the Nationals, who are ranked third in team wOBA and seventh in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. There is also the issue of run support with Max Scherzer pitching opposite him.

Quick Breakdown: Arrieta makes sense as a leverage play if you think Scherzer will struggle. I’m not in that camp though, so I will be avoiding Arrieta in all formats.

Max Scherzer
max-scherzer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,000 Salary: $13,000 Salary: $25,200
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.05 2.96 31.5% 6.2% 33.0% 30.1% 22.2%
2017 15 2.73 2.09 35.3% 5.8% 38.7% 25.6% 19.7%

Scherzer is the ace of the slate. He is having another tremendous season for the Nationals, posting a 2.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35%. He has lowered his walk rate and his hard contact rate, which has led to an even lower ERA than last season. The Cubs’ offense still has name value, but they have really struggled against right-handed pitching this season. Many people haven’t realized that they are ranked in the bottom ten in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against righties. Scherzer should have no issues with the Cubs tonight, especially with this game being played at home in the pitcher-friendly Nationals Park.

Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is the top pitcher in the slate and is an elite play in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

I’m not a fan of targeting hitters against elite pitchers, especially in a 15 game slate. In addition to his elite strikeout rate, Max Scherzer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA and under 30% hard contact rate in the last two seasons. The Cubs struggle against right-handed pitching and are playing in a bad ballpark for offensive production. We don’t need to overthink this one; avoid the Cubs’ offense in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.389 0.383 0.254 36.3% 12.8% 15.4% 36.5% 1B $3,200 1B $4,000 1B $7,800
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.376 0.347 0.237 36.2% 10.6% 22.9% 31.6% 3B $2,900 3B $4,000 IF/OF $7,800
3 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.334 0.308 0.192 33.5% 9.0% 27.7% 53.7% C $2,200 C $3,200 IF/OF $6,400
4 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.374 0.353 0.313 35.4% 10.6% 31.0% 45.3% 2B $2,500 2B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
5 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.301 0.293 0.165 28.9% 7.3% 22.5% 43.3% SS $2,300 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
6 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.298 0.267 0.156 29.2% 2.1% 25.7% 44.9% 2B $2,200 2B/SS $3,300 2B $6,400
7 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.276 0.254 0.095 27.8% 5.1% 20.2% 51.9% OF $2,000 OF $2,800 CF $5,600
8 Jake Arrieta RIGHT 0.239 0.239 0.171 32.5% 2.7% 42.5% 44.7% P $9,400 P $7,500 P $14,800
9 Jon Jay LEFT 0.317 0.298 0.102 29.4% 5.4% 21.5% 52.1% OF $2,100 OF $2,600 CF $5,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

I’ve gone back and forth on the Nationals’ offense heading into the slate, but at the end of the day, do we really want to take hitters against Jake Arrieta in a pitcher-friendly ballpark in a 15 game slate? The simple answer to that is no. Arrieta does struggle with left-handed hitters every now and then, but Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper are both secondary plays at their respective positions and price points. Trea Turner makes the most sense here, as Arrieta struggles to hold runners, but he is priced at a premium.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.382 0.332 0.219 29.4% 5.1% 17.6% 47.4% SS $3,700 SS $5,200 IF/OF $10,200
2 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.329 0.283 0.217 33.7% 8.3% 26.5% 45.2% OF $2,700 OF $4,000 RF $7,800
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.381 0.396 0.238 34.8% 18.4% 15.9% 39.6% OF $4,100 OF $5,400 RF $10,400
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.332 0.340 0.195 36.5% 5.6% 22.5% 45.2% 1B $3,500 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.411 0.394 0.251 38.3% 6.8% 8.8% 35.2% 2B $3,600 2B $5,000 2B $9,600
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.345 0.348 0.190 34.8% 10.1% 17.5% 36.9% 3B $3,000 3B $4,400 3B $8,700
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.301 0.315 0.155 32.8% 6.4% 18.0% 38.2% C $2,300 C $2,700 C $5,200
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.297 0.276 0.192 33.5% 5.2% 32.4% 41.4% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.181 0.163 0.011 23.9% 2.9% 29.5% 75.4% P $12,000 P $13,000 P $25,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay Pittsburgh
tampabaymlb Alex Cobb pittsburghmlb Trevor Williams
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-108 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.359 0.338 37.3% 8.8% 16.0% 41.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.347 0.295 25.4% 6.8% 15.5% 41.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.338 0.315 37.2% 4.9% 16.5% 51.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.342 0.362 34.7% 7.3% 17.6% 44.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Alex Cobb
alex-cobb-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.50 8.59 15.4% 6.7% 52.5% 29.6% 17.3%
2017 15 4.72 4.05 16.5% 6.7% 45.7% 39.3% 13.2%

Cobb’s 4.72 SIERA and 17% strikeout rate are far from appealing, but he has at least five strikeouts in six of his last eight starts and five quality starts during that stretch. He may not have the highest ceiling, but he’s had some decent outings for a pitcher at his price point. The problem is that his recent success has led to a price bump across the industry. He now has to go on the road to take on the Pirates in game that features a high over/under of 9.0 runs. Cobb’s 39% hard contact rate is a big concern, even in this pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: 15 game slates are all about options and we can find better ones than Cobb against the Pirates.

Trevor Williams
trevor-williams-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 4.28 7.82 18.0% 8.2% 45.5% 31.1% 17.8%
2017 9 4.77 5.09 16.3% 6.8% 42.2% 30.0% 25.3%

Williams does not fit the mold of what we are looking for in a pitcher. He has a high SIERA, a low strikeout rate, and he doesn’t induce many ground balls. The Rays may strikeout at a high rate, but they are also ranked fourth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. We rarely see games in Pittsburgh with an over/under of 9.0 runs, which is a red flag for both of the starting pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: Williams doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to make up for his mistakes.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The sample size is still fairly small (ten starts), but Trevor Williams has had some serious reverse splits. During that stretch, he has held lefties to a .295 xwOBA and a 25% hard contact rate, while allowing a .362 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. The left-handed trio of Mallex Smith, Corey Dickerson, and Logan Morrison is still worth a look (especially if you are thinking about a Rays’ stack), but the splits favor the right-handed bats of Evan Longoria and Steven Souza, who both have good numbers against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.358 0.274 0.134 21.3% 11.3% 19.0% 58.2% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
2 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.356 0.324 0.267 33.3% 6.4% 21.7% 34.8% OF $4,200 OF $4,800 LF $9,200
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.351 0.351 0.237 36.0% 6.1% 19.3% 35.6% 3B $3,400 3B $4,300 3B $8,400
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.348 0.371 0.252 40.3% 11.2% 22.5% 39.0% 1B $3,500 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.348 0.328 0.210 32.8% 10.0% 31.5% 40.7% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 RF $8,700
6 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.324 0.303 0.195 43.8% 5.2% 31.3% 44.2% SS $3,000 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
7 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.300 0.282 0.132 33.8% 9.4% 27.3% 53.8% 2B $2,500 2B/3B $2,900 SS $5,700
8 Jesus Sucre RIGHT 0.319 0.298 0.118 27.1% 3.3% 18.5% 47.8% C $2,400 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Alex Cobb RIGHT 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 0.0% P $8,300 P $7,800 P $15,200

Elite Plays – Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Mallex Smith, Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison, Steve Souza

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh

Alex Cobb seems to be trending in the right direction, but the 39% hard contact rate that he has given up this season is awfully intriguing. The Pirates don’t have a ton of firepower in their offense, but they have been scoring more runs ever since Andrew McCutchen bat started to heat up. For cash games, the Pirates don’t provide a ton of appeal, but their are a few hitters that are worth a look in tournaments. Gregory Polanco is dirt cheap across the industry, Josh Bell leads the team with a .356 xwOBA against righties, and McCutchen has four multi-hit games in his last ten.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.330 0.331 0.131 31.7% 9.0% 14.6% 46.1% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.308 0.289 0.111 28.4% 4.3% 14.9% 42.7% 2B $3,200 2B/3B $4,000 2B $7,600
3 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.326 0.339 0.188 32.9% 8.9% 16.7% 39.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.317 0.325 0.127 31.6% 9.3% 26.1% 59.1% 3B $2,800 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
5 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.351 0.356 0.205 33.3% 12.4% 17.0% 50.4% 1B $2,800 1B $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
6 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.327 0.339 0.170 34.9% 9.7% 20.8% 37.4% OF $3,600 OF $4,000 RF $7,800
7 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.311 0.299 0.121 25.9% 8.3% 14.7% 49.3% SS $2,700 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
8 Chris Stewart RIGHT 0.252 0.275 0.078 22.2% 9.0% 13.5% 43.8% C $2,200 C $2,200 C $4,400
9 Trevor Williams RIGHT 0.000 0.129 0.000 11.1% 0.0% 43.8% 42.9% P $6,900 P $5,100 P $10,200

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Josh Bell, Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Baltimore Toronto
baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman torontomlb Joe Biagini
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-150 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.306 0.316 32.9% 8.0% 20.8% 38.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.281 30.3% 7.1% 23.3% 56.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.373 0.351 31.7% 7.2% 20.8% 46.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.268 0.269 22.5% 5.1% 18.7% 54.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.81 3.61 23.0% 6.2% 44.1% 31.1% 18.3%
2017 16 5.26 6.47 16.5% 10.2% 41.2% 34.4% 16.9%

Gausman was cruising in the first few innings of his last start, but the Indians’ offense eventually caught up to him. The 16 strikeouts in his last two outings are encouraging, but it’s hard to ignore the 5.26 SIERA and 17% strikeout rate on the season. He hasn’t been the same pitcher this season and he continues to walk batters at a high rate. When you are a fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact, you can’t afford to give out free base passes. He is an easy fade tonight against the Blue Jays, who have plenty of right-handed hitters to throw at this reverse-splits pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman has been in bad form and is a reverse-splits pitcher that is facing a right-handed heavy lineup.

Joe Biagini
joseph-biagini-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 3.45 3.06 21.0% 6.4% 52.2% 23.0% 17.7%
2017 9 3.69 4.45 20.3% 5.4% 58.2% 28.7% 18.8%

Biagini was shelled in his last home start against the White Sox, but bounced back with a decent outing in a tough matchup against the Rangers on the road. He has a lot of the tools that we like to see from a pitcher. His SIERA is below 4.00, he has an average strikeout rate, and he has one of the highest ground ball rates of any starting pitcher in baseball. I expect him to fly under the radar tonight, even though a matchup against the Orioles should suit him well. Baltimore will have two left-handed hitters in their lineup at most and since the beginning of last season, Biagini has held righties to a .269 xwOBA and a 23% hard contact rate.

Quick Breakdown: Biagini is a sneaky play in tournaments and is very cheap on FanDuel, DraftKings, and FantasyDraft.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles are a lot like the Cubs in that their offense has the name value, but the results haven’t been there this season. They are ranked below the league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. The best way to attack Joe Biagini is with left-handed hitters and they are in short supply when it comes to the Orioles. There is a chance that we see eight righties in this lineup tonight. People might be sucked in by the high implied run total, but Seth Smith is the only Orioles’ hitter on my radar here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.338 0.372 0.177 33.8% 10.7% 21.0% 46.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.341 0.358 0.238 35.6% 7.0% 19.3% 38.0% 3B $3,500 3B $4,000 3B $7,800
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.343 0.316 0.206 29.8% 3.4% 20.1% 42.2% 2B $3,300 2B $4,200 2B $8,000
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.338 0.338 0.196 32.5% 5.1% 16.8% 43.8% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.366 0.376 0.253 36.8% 8.4% 23.4% 39.2% OF $3,400 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
6 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.437 0.368 0.303 36.5% 7.4% 25.7% 50.0% 1B $3,400 1B/OF $3,600 1B $7,200
7 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.310 0.298 0.149 33.7% 6.1% 27.0% 40.9% C $2,600 C $3,400 C $6,800
8 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.270 0.245 0.078 23.2% 4.8% 23.1% 43.9% OF $2,400 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
9 Paul Janish RIGHT 0.145 0.264 0.000 22.7% 3.3% 23.3% 25.0% SS $2,100 3B/SS $2,500 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

Kevin Gausman has been one of the best pitchers in baseball to stack against this season. He has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he has allowed a lot of medium and hard contact. He also is prone to those big innings, which allows offenses to rack up runs quickly. The Blue Jays are one of my favorite stacks in the slate and we can target batters from both sides of the plate. We should give a slight bump to the right-handed hitters, as Gausman has allowed a .351 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to righties since the beginning of last season. The Blue Jays don’t have a ton of at-bats against Gausman, but Justin Smoak, Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, and Troy Tulowitzki have all homered off of him in the past.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.361 0.364 0.219 37.8% 16.0% 21.5% 36.3% OF $3,900 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.331 0.326 0.170 30.4% 12.8% 26.2% 48.5% C $2,800 C $3,700 C $7,200
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.398 0.396 0.269 40.1% 14.3% 19.2% 40.3% 3B $3,800 3B $4,100 3B $8,100
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.350 0.371 0.243 40.8% 10.7% 30.0% 30.0% 1B $3,500 1B $4,400 1B $8,400
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.316 0.390 0.198 40.9% 8.2% 19.4% 49.1% 1B $3,500 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.322 0.347 0.176 33.6% 7.4% 17.5% 41.3% SS $2,900 SS $3,200 SS $6,300
7 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.338 0.343 0.162 30.7% 8.8% 17.6% 45.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 1B $6,800
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.286 0.294 0.112 26.4% 5.2% 15.5% 47.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.267 0.275 0.147 30.2% 7.0% 21.1% 48.1% 2B $2,300 2B/SS $2,900 2B $5,700

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Justin Smoak, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Mets at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

NY Mets Miami
nymetsmlb Robert Gsellman miamimlb Dan Straily
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA-151 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.327 0.322 36.8% 9.6% 22.7% 51.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.272 0.300 29.0% 11.5% 22.2% 35.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.348 0.326 28.9% 6.4% 14.5% 55.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.326 0.315 35.8% 6.6% 21.7% 32.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Robert Gsellman
robert-gsellman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 7 3.76 2.42 22.7% 8.1% 54.2% 28.4% 18.1%
2017 13 4.69 6.04 15.5% 7.6% 53.2% 33.9% 19.1%

The only stat that Gsellman seems to have in his favor right now is a high ground ball rate (53%), everything else is not pretty. In 13 starts this season, he has a 4.69 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. His hard contact rate is up and he has been giving up some big innings. As a sizable underdog pitching on the road in what is expected to be a high scoring game, he is an easy fade tonight.

Quick Breakdown: There are too many red flags with Gsellman to consider playing him in any format.

Dan Straily
dan-straily-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $8,500 Salary: $16,500
Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 4.67 3.76 20.5% 9.2% 32.0% 32.2% 14.8%
2017 15 4.00 3.43 25.4% 8.0% 38.1% 34.2% 21.2%

Straily is a boom or bust pitcher that seems to like pitching in Miami (most fly-ball pitchers do). In 15 starts with the Marlins, he has a 4.00 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. The Mets are typically a scary matchup for a right-handed pitcher, but Straily is a reverse-splits pitcher that has held lefties to a .300 xwOBA and a 29% hard contact rate in the last two seasons. If we see New York roll out six or seven lefties in their lineup, we can actually give Straily a small boost. The strikeout upside is there and we know he can pitch well in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Straily is far from a core play in a 15 game slate, but he has some appeal as an SP2 in large field tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets go from one pitcher-friendly ballpark in Citi Field to another in Marlins Park. They have a fairly low implied run total and face a pitcher with an above-average strikeout rate. As mentioned above, Dan Straily is a reverse-splits pitcher, which hurts the appeal of the left-handed hitters in this lineup. I’m not particularly interested in this offense tonight, but Yoenis Cespedes could be worth a look as a one-off target in tournaments. In the last two seasons, he has a .360 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.368 0.366 0.245 43.6% 12.8% 24.2% 37.1% OF $3,300 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.341 0.329 0.199 35.2% 7.8% 17.7% 38.2% 2B $3,000 SS $4,000 SS $7,600
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.362 0.360 0.243 39.4% 7.8% 19.5% 35.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.375 0.368 0.296 42.0% 9.2% 20.5% 35.6% OF $3,600 OF $4,000 RF $7,600
5 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.363 0.390 0.247 41.4% 12.7% 21.8% 31.8% 1B $3,200 1B $4,400 1B $8,400
6 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.303 0.293 0.147 30.1% 6.1% 15.4% 37.2% 3B $3,000 1B/3B $3,600 3B $7,200
7 Travis d’Arnaud RIGHT 0.272 0.298 0.119 32.8% 6.1% 17.0% 47.0% C $2,500 C $3,300 C $6,600
8 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.264 0.265 0.120 25.6% 7.6% 16.5% 38.2% SS $2,300 3B/SS $3,300 SS $6,600
9 Robert Gsellman RIGHT 0.143 0.160 0.000 31.3% 8.3% 47.2% 33.3% P $6,600 P $5,700 P $11,400

Elite Plays – Yoenis Cespedes (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Yoenis Cespedes (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

The Marlins are one of those teams that I always like at first glance, but when it comes time to build lineups, they always seem to be the odd man out. I expect that to be the case again tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against Robert Gsellman, they get to face him at home, and they have a relatively high implied run total. There isn’t a reason that we should be fading them, they just don’t stand out quite as much as some of the other offenses in the slate. For what it’s worth, Gsellman has allowed a .322+ xwOBA to batters from both sides of the plate and a 37% hard contact rate to lefties in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.302 0.250 0.076 18.9% 5.4% 14.9% 56.7% 2B $3,000 2B $4,000 2B $7,800
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.342 0.341 0.239 37.2% 9.3% 28.3% 40.1% OF $4,100 OF $4,100 RF $8,000
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.366 0.382 0.181 39.8% 12.2% 19.6% 55.0% OF $3,200 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.346 0.343 0.201 37.6% 7.7% 19.8% 46.4% OF $3,900 OF $4,000 LF $7,600
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.359 0.391 0.237 40.1% 11.7% 17.7% 44.3% 1B $3,000 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
6 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.302 0.302 0.106 25.4% 5.6% 11.1% 49.1% 3B $2,800 3B $3,300 3B $6,400
7 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.337 0.311 0.125 30.7% 5.3% 16.8% 50.0% C $2,900 C $3,700 C $7,200
8 JT Riddle LEFT 0.276 0.289 0.149 40.4% 4.8% 20.0% 48.4% SS $2,200 SS $2,000 SS $3,900
9 Dan Straily RIGHT 0.039 0.078 0.000 14.7% 1.3% 54.5% 87.5% P $8,100 P $8,500 P $16,500

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich (DK & FDRFT), Justin Bour (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich (FD), Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour (Cash)

Stackability – YELLOW

Texas at Cleveland – 7:10 PM ET

Texas Cleveland
texasmlb Tyson Ross clevelandmlb Mike Clevinger
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-160 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.377 0.404 48.2% 5.6% 16.7% 51.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.284 0.315 25.7% 12.6% 22.9% 40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.358 0.263 30.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.352 0.343 35.0% 12.6% 24.4% 37.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyson Ross
tyson-ross-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 3.64 11.81 18.5% 3.7% 47.4% 42.1% 21.1%
2017 2 5.05 9.35 18.0% 10.3% 39.3% 39.3% 3.6%

Ross hasn’t looked good in the minors this season and he’s looked even worse in his two major league starts. It sucks that he had to leave San Diego because Petco Park was perfect for him. He now has to pitch in the American League and in some of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. The oddsmakers have little to no confidence in Ross, as he comes into tonight’s game as a big underdog with the over/under set at ten runs. There is more risk than upside here, especially in a matchup against the Indians.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Ross in all formats.

Mike Clevinger
michael-clevinger-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 10 4.77 5.26 21.5% 12.5% 38.2% 31.2% 18.2%
2017 8 4.43 3.86 26.7% 12.8% 38.6% 30.4% 15.7%

Clevinger can be erratic at times. He has a high strikeout rate, but that comes with a high walk rate and an inability to pitch deep into games. He’s typically on our radar in short slates where we need to find some value for our SP2. He has very little fantasy appeal in a 15 game slate, especially with a matchup against the Rangers. We saw what happened to Carlos Carrasco in this same matchup last night. Granted, everything changes day by day, but I will be looking to take chances elsewhere.

Quick Breakdown: The Rangers draw a lot of walks and have a talented offense. The risk seems to outweigh the potential reward for Clevinger.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Is it just me, or did all of the reverse-splits pitchers decide to get together and pitch on the same night? We have another one in Mike Clevinger, who has held lefties to a .315 xwOBA and a 26% hard contact rate, but has allowed a .343 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Adrian Beltre has been swinging a hot bat and is worth a look in all formats. Elvis Andrus doesn’t get the credit that he deserves and is worth a look batting second. Carlos Gomez has also been seeing the ball well since coming back from his injury. The three righties all standout as viable one-off targets and a Rangers’ stack isn’t the craziest idea I’ve ever heard.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.343 0.386 0.172 41.3% 13.3% 21.5% 47.3% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 RF $7,800
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.337 0.318 0.136 27.6% 7.9% 13.8% 47.8% SS $3,200 SS $4,200 SS $8,100
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.339 0.338 0.189 31.6% 8.1% 18.8% 43.6% OF $3,300 OF $4,000 RF $7,600
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.359 0.366 0.208 34.6% 6.5% 10.6% 40.0% 3B $3,900 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.326 0.296 0.239 35.1% 3.1% 22.4% 39.6% 2B $3,500 2B $3,200 2B $6,400
6 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.329 0.306 0.200 34.4% 9.0% 28.7% 41.5% OF $3,700 OF $4,400 CF $8,700
7 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.348 0.334 0.169 30.3% 7.2% 14.6% 43.4% C $2,600 C $3,300 C $6,600
8 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.321 0.329 0.233 35.0% 9.9% 30.1% 36.4% 1B $2,800 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
9 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.312 0.307 0.286 41.8% 12.0% 39.9% 26.4% 1B $2,800 1B/3B $4,000 IF/OF $7,600

Elite Plays – Adrian Beltre

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus, Carlos Gomez, Rougned Odor, Jonathan Lucroy

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland

The Indians should be a popular stack tonight. If you are a member of RotoGrinders Premium, you can access our ownership projections each and every day. If you see that the Indians aren’t expected to be popular, it’s time to fire up the Cleveland stacks. Tyson Ross struggled in the minors earlier this season and he has struggled so far in the majors. He has historically struggled with walks and with left-handed hitters, which is a great combination for the Indians’ offense. You can honestly make a case for each of the one through eight hitters in this lineup. My favorites are Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, and Michael Brantley (expected to return to the lineup tonight).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.341 0.342 0.167 27.2% 8.9% 12.2% 46.1% SS $3,400 SS $4,100 SS $8,100
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.341 0.344 0.193 37.5% 9.2% 19.7% 37.0% 2B $3,100 2B $3,600 2B $7,200
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.337 0.348 0.138 40.0% 9.6% 14.0% 51.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.367 0.382 0.260 38.0% 11.0% 20.7% 38.0% 1B $3,700 1B $4,500 1B $8,700
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.373 0.343 0.187 28.8% 7.5% 9.6% 38.4% 3B $4,000 2B/3B $4,900 IF/OF $9,600
6 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.371 0.398 0.256 37.1% 15.4% 17.0% 35.6% 1B $3,300 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
7 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.347 0.313 0.192 29.5% 5.6% 16.1% 33.9% OF $2,800 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
8 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.386 0.368 0.234 34.0% 11.5% 27.6% 40.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
9 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.219 0.259 0.131 28.6% 4.8% 27.1% 38.8% C $2,500 C $2,900 C $5,600

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Lonnie Chisenhall, Bradley Zimmer

Stackability – GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious